Archive for May 23rd, 2011

Monday: 05.23.2011

Baseball Podcast Recommendation List: An Update

I’ve added to the original post from back in March with several additions as well as some updated commentary for a handful of shows.  That post can be found here in its entirety.  However, for those of you just interested in the new additions, I’ve split those off into a new post.

Original List

As always, please let me know if you there is something left off that you think I should try out and possibly add to the list.

The New Additions: (May 23rd)

The Baseball Show with Rany & JoeRany Jazayerli and Joe Sheenan are long-time friends and industry stalwarts when it comes to baseball.  As Joe tells it, they used to have extended phone calls where they would just talk about everything that was going on in baseball so given the rise in podcasts, they decided to just start recording these calls and sharing them with the world.  If you enjoyed the writing of these two back at Baseball Prospectus or currently enjoy them either at Rany on the Royals or in Sheehan’s Newsletter, then you’ll definitely like this show.

Sports Poscast with Joe Posnanski – I was absolutely thrilled to learn that Joe Posnanski was starting a podcast and 11 episodes in, it has not disappointed.  It isn’t a pure baseball podcast, but there is enough baseball content for it to crack the list especially as we inch closer to summer.  He has done three episodes (technically four as one was a two-parter) with the creator of the best show on TV, Michael Schur (Parks & Rec.), including one where they did a fantasy draft of baseball books which was amazing.  He’s also had Bob Costas, Bill James, Ian O’Connor (who recently released a book about Derek Jeter) and Giants announcer Duane Kuiper for his baseball-centric episodes.  The only no-baseball episode was with Kevin Harlan.  This is quickly becoming one of my favorites.

Hot Clicks Podcast with Jimmy Traina Another one that isn’t all baseball, but eminently listenable regardless of the guest.  I discovered the podcast this weekend and listened to all nine episodes.  The Logan Morrison and C.J. Wilson episodes are must-listens from a baseball perspective.  I also enjoyed the James Andrew Miller (co-author of Those Guys Have All the Fun: Inside the World of ESPN which releases May 24th), Erin Andrews and Chris Cooley episodes quite a bit.  If you enjoy Traina’s twice-daily link roundup at Sports Illustrated, you will probably like his podcast.

Bizball Radio – If you enjoy Maury Brown’s great work on the business of sports network (and specifically baseball) then you will no doubt enjoy this podcast where Brown speaks with some of the most intriguing guests in the sports business field.  Like some of these additions, it isn’t all baseball all the time especially with topic like the NFL Lockout to speak about, but all except one of his guests (George Atallah from the NFLPA) was either mostly baseball talk or at least some within their episode.

Podcast To Be Named LaterJason Collette and company from DRaysBay.com have resurrected this Tampa Bay-centric podcast.  Like the other team-focused podcasts on the list, it is best if you are a fan of that team, but if you are a diehard baseball fan in need of more podcasts then you will enjoy listening to this roundtable discussion of one of the league’s best teams.

Fantasy Pros 911 PodcastRich Wilson, Tony Cincotta and Tim McLeod get together every Sunday night for an hour to talk about the week that was and the one coming up in fantasy baseball.  They cover plenty of topics in their hour-plus (the first hour is always live on BlogTalkRadio while anything additional bleeds over onto the podcast only) with information for all fantasy players regardless of league size and format.  They engage their chatroom very well, too, and also respond to emails the following week.  The sound quality leaves a little to be desired, but I believe the only way to go truly live on BTR is over the phone which precludes them from recording on Skype and then posting a cleaner recording to the site.  I might trade the live aspect for better sound, but that would take away their interactive with the chatroom which is a key aspect to the show.

Monday: 05.23.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 8 Tuesday-Friday

I am doing a great job at picking starters who end up involved in rainouts.  Of course, half the league gets rained out nightly so I guess that’s not too surprising.  Tuesday was a total washout with Rick Porcello and Jordan Zimmermann getting wiped out, but I went back to the well with both on Sunday and it went quite well (14.3 IP, 2 ER, 8 K).

I pound this one home time and time and time again, but the week 7 Trolling picks accentuate perfectly just in case you still don’t believe: you cannot chase wins… ever.  Twelve starters threw 78 innings with a 2.89 ERA and 1.21 WHIP yet netted just two wins.  TWO!  It wasn’t a necessarily an ill-begotten ERA, either, as the group had a solid if unspectacular 6.1 K/9, but a very strong 2.5 K/BB.

We will still aim for skills first and foremost, but hopefully we can pull a few more wins with this week’s picks.

MONDAY:  Found here.

TUESDAY:

Chris Narveson (MIL v. WAS) – He has spent most of May chiseling away at an ERA that was heavily damaged by a 7 ER in 2.3 IP outing, but now it’s at a very respectable 3.44 thanks to a really strong month.  Again, I know you can’t pick and choose starts, but if you remove that outlier, you see a 2.34 ERA in eight starts with a strong 7.9 K/9.  Of course, leave it in and the strikeout rate remains the same and the ERA above average, even in the very heavy pitching environment of 2011.

Charlie Morton (PIT v. ATL) – This is still a tough nut to crack with his just over 1 K:BB rate (1.12), but the insane groundball (62%) masks some of the K:BB shortcomings.  He has three really weird starts with five walks in each and just one or two strikeouts (five total), but he has a 3.50 ERA in 18.3 innings with two wins during the starts.  In his last two starts, he has five Ks in each with 14 and 17 groundballs, respectively.  He’s facing a team with 21st ranked OPS on the heels of losing one of their best hitters in Jason Heyward.  He has succeeded against much better teams including two complete games at Cincinnati (1 ER total).

WEDNESDAY:

James McDonald (PIT v. ATL) – He has really picked it up in May with a 3.18 ERA in 23 innings along with 24 strikeouts.  Still a little inconsistent, but the favorable matchup (6th-most Ks in MLB) helps.

Erik Bedard (SEA @ MIN) – I’ll simply reiterate my Sunday Twidbit on Bedard: “After posting an 8.56 ERA in first 3 starts, Erik Bedard has a 1.97 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in last 5 w/7.3 K/9 & 2.4 K/BB.”  Plus he has 18 K in his last 13 IP and he gets to face Minnesota in a pitcher’s ballpark.

Mike Minor (ATL @ PIT) – I love the skills of this kid and he’d have probably gotten a shot sooner had he been on rotation when they needed the spot starts that eventually went to Julio Teheran.  He has better than a strikeout per inning in 53 innings at AAA-Gwinnett and just 2.4 BB/9 leading to a near-4.0 K/BB.  He had nearly identical skills in 41 major league innings last year (9.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 3.9 K/BB) and I think he has a chance to be a high-impact starter the rest of the way.

THURSDAY:

Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. FLO) – His huge, albeit surprising, skills are holding strong with a 2.9 K/BB rate in 33 innings.  He has also added in some luck so the 1.93 ERA will almost certainly rise a bit, but I’d be surprised if there was a total implosion as long as he maintains the skills hold.

FRIDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. LAA) – The Hold List is coming apart at the seams with Brandon McCarthy on the disabled list and Baker struggling in his last three with a 7.04 ERA, though he does have 21 Ks in 15 innings.  While a 4.12 ERA might have been usable 2-3 years ago (in fact, Baker’s 4.37 in 2009 netted a 100 ERA+), it’s below average now which costs Baker his HL spot.  That said, I’m going to use him for this matchup because the skills are still strong (2.8 K/BB power by 9.1 K/9) and his main weakness (home runs) isn’t a particular strength of the Angels (17th-most in baseball w/38).

Monday: 05.23.2011

Sunday Twidbits: May 22nd

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Cin –  Jay Bruce is 12-for-26 w/3 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R in his last 7; hitting .319 w/7 HR in May. Hope you were patient thru slow April (.237, 4 HR).

Cle –  Asdrubal Cabrera has 200% more HRs (9) than last yr (3); topped last yr’s RBI total (29 in 97 G) w/his 31st in his 44th gm.

Cle2 –  A.Cabrera is the latest member of the Paul Sporer Year Early Team; loved him for a breakout. I’m tellin ya, my ’11 rosters=’12 cheatsheets

Cle3 –  Josh Tomlin has the largest ERA-FIP disparity in MLB. He will implode bc .175 BABIPs & 85% LOB%s don’t last. Trade now… for anything.

NYM –  Carlos Beltran hitting .281/.380/.534 is = or > career #s & on pace for 28-88. Scared of inj? Trade for full value as #s warrant nice return.

NYY –  Brett Gardner was hitting .145 on Apr 28 & popping on wires; hitting .369/.455/.492 w/14 R, 11 RBI, 3 SB and 1 HR since.

NYY2 –  Gardner (cont.) – Cut guys after 62 AB & you deserve to lose… regardless of lg. format.

Hou –  With Astros O exceeding expectations, Michael Bourn‘s value is higher than usual. Elite SBer (59 pace), but also on pace for 100 R.

Tor –  Need Ks but can afford a bit of an ERA hit? Buy Brandon Morrow. He’s -0.10 on ERA, but huge in Ks, espec. if cat. is bunched in your lg.

Tor2 –  Jays getting .186/.242/.291 at 3B w/25th-worst D. Brett Lawrie & his .346/.403/.633 line w/11 HR, 29 XBH & 9 SB CAN’T be far off. Speculate.

TB –  Might consider selling Jeremy Hellickson & his wobbly 3.18 ERA. Built upon sub-2.0 K/BB, .250 BABIP & 6% HR/FB (43% FB); 3.81 FIP = danger.

TB2 –  Hellickson (cont.) – If you’re contending in kpr lg w/cheap Helly, even better to trade bc you could net an absolute mint.

Flo –  Leo Nunez has been arguably baseball’s best closer this yr. in a yr when it’s been espec. rocky. His skills last yr. predicted future success.

Tex –  Elvis Andrus was 32-47 SB last yr. along w/.301 SLG causing some to sour on the 22 y/o SS. He’s 15-15 SB & on pace for 55, 3 < than Hanley.

Phi –  Dom Brown punished AAA SPs going .341/.431/.537 in 11 G. Could be worth spec in offense-starved ’11 despite sub-.200 car. avg (in 66 AB).

Det –  DET bullpen is toting a 6.03 ERA w/only Valverde doing well. Schlereth has 3.00 ERA, but sub-1.0 K/BB & 6.58 FIP. Need Benoit to compete.

Pit –  Andrew McCutchen is hitting .311/.378/.554 in May w/3 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R & 3 SB. Slow April is behind him.

Was –  Jason Marquis has rejoined us on Earth in May w/6.26 ERA; control has left him (3.1 in May; 1.3 in Apr). I never believed, no reason to now.

Bal –  Nick Markakis is hitting .329 in May & .433 in last 7. .278 OBP (B.Roberts-.273) out of leadoff spot has stifled RBI opps during stretch.

Col –  Jhoulys Chacin has carried ’10 skill over (same K/BB), added a ton of GB (47% to 59%) & become COL ace. ERA might tick up a bit from 2.66.

Mil –  Jonathan LuCroy isn’t widely owned at any outlet yet has an .863 OPS w/4 HR & 18 RBI in 100 AB; .320 AVG WILL sink, but pwr worth spec.

LAD –  Don’t let a pair of stars fool you, LA is a must-start against for even your marginal SP. NL’s worst offense in May; 2nd-worst all yr by R.

Chw –  Matt Thornton has allowed 1 ER in 5.3 IP across 6 APP in May. Santos has just 1 meltdown, but mark my words: Thornton will close again in ’11.

StL –  Jaime Garcia‘s emergence & rise of Yadier Molina, Jon Jay & Allen Craig on O has more than made up for Waino loss; resulting in NLC lead.

KC –  May has brought Jeff Francoeur‘s descent into Francoeurdom (.239); though HRs stick & could lead to 6yr high. Has real value in pwr-less 11.

Atl –  Remember when Nate McLouth was “back”? Was hitting .287/.384/.417 thru 5/4. Hitting .143/.226/.196  w/1 HR, 1 RBI & 4 R since.

Atl –  If McLouth has a 30+ G stretch of .287 during the season, no one bats an eye, but to start seas. some think it means more. It doesn’t.

LAA –  Jordan Walden has labored thru May (6.75 ERA in 8 IP) w/3 BSv, but also 3 SV & 9 K. Only lefty Scott Downs has excelled, but unlikely for role.

Oak –  Trevor Cahill has allowed >2 ER just once. K rate has come back down (6.3 K/9 in May), but still capable of big K gm (5-7-1-6)

SF –  Remember worrying about Tim Lincecum? Velo is highest in 3 yrs (93), ERA career best (2.06), allowed 0-1 ER in 6 of 10 GS. Remains elite.

Sea –  After posting an 8.56 ERA in first 3 starts, Erik Bedard has a 1.97 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in last 5 w/7.3 K/9 & 2.4 K/BB. Widely available.

SD –  SD has 4 RP w/21+ IP of 1.16 WHIP or better and 2.6 K/BB or better. Doesn’t incl. Bell & Gregerson. Expect major activity at trade deadline.

Min –  Jason Kubel is the only Twins player with 50+ AB w/an OPS over .708 which also means he’s the only one w/an OPS higher than Joey Bats’ SLG!

Ari –  Ryan Roberts is on pace for 25 HR, 21 SB, 81 R and 74 RBI yet still not fully owned. Check your wire. Better than 1.0 K/BB is impressive, too.

Chc –  Matt Garza has used massive K & GB surges (11 K/9, 48% FB-both car. highs) to post solid 3.72 ERA, but HR correction (2.4 HR/FB%) will sting.

Chc2 –  Garza has a sky-high BABIP (.362) bc of terrible IF defense, but regression of BABIP & LOB% will only balance HR/FB at best. Hold, don’t buy

Chc3 –  After another big April, Kosuke Fukudome doing his usual slide back. .226 in May with 1 (!!!) RBI. He had 2 in April. That’s hard to do.

Bos –  Some people hate owning DH/U-only guys so David Ortiz & his 32 HR pace (& .294 AVG) could be had at a nice price. Inquire.

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