Archive for February 13th, 2013

Wednesday: 02.13.2013

Countdown to Spring Training: 9 Days – Stubbs Stance

Only 9 days until live game action…

What happened to a player essay for the Countdown?

DREW STUBBS

News out of Goodyear, AZ today from Jerry Crasnick discusses how Drew Stubbs is looking to discard his leg kick in hopes that it might boost his batting average and more importantly cut his vomit-inducing strikeout rate.

Stubbs is hoping to emulate the success of former Arizona Fall League teammate Austin Jackson, who took a major step forward as a hitter after jettisoning his leg kick for a toe tap. Jackson raised his batting average from .249 to .300 and cut his strikeout total markedly in 137 games with Detroit. (full story)

Stubbs has been headed the wrong way, while Jackson’s change last year led to a huge breakout season stunted only by an injury.

stubjax

From a homer & stolen base standpoint, Stubbs has Jackson beat easily, but his massive strikeout rate has just tanked his batting average and if he wasn’t an outstanding centerfielder defensively he might have lost a lot of playing time in 2012. There are a lot of stories like this every Spring Training and other noise about weight changes and desires to steal bases, etc…

This, like a new pitch, is a discernible change in approach so they should be placed atop the list in terms of newsworthiness. The key will be whether or not it works and then of course whether or not he sticks with it. With Jackson it was obvious very quickly, to me at least. I personally saw a difference in him in week one which I mentioned to anyone who would listen. Watching every Tigers game definitely helped me there. I don’t watch nearly as many Indians games, but I’ll be keeping an eye on Stubbs.

He is costing nothing this mock season so he might be worth a late flier as your reserve outfielder. If this is something that make him even a steady .260 hitter, then he can be a huge impact player.

Wednesday: 02.13.2013

Countdown to Spring Training: 10 Days – Norichika Aoki

Only 10 days (technically 9, but that’s coming later tonight) until live game action…

I have to go with a new format for the rest of the countdown.

I know we are almost done, but unfortunately I don’t have enough time for the full essays right now. The reason is a very good one for me, though: work! I’ve been getting freelance work assignments that have combined with the SP Guide to take up my Countdown time and then some. Since I am trying to make writing a full-time thing, this is very much good news, but the Countdown is a bit of a casualty. Originally the Countdown was set up to keep the daily content flowing and also gave me a chance to hit on some hitters since most of my focus in on pitching.

I’ll finish out the Countdown, but the format will be a little different. I’m not necessarily going to follow my offensive players list for the final eight days (starting tomorrow). Some days I will. But my post of the day, whatever it is, will serve at the Countdown entry. When it does happen to be a Countdown player, it will be some stats about the guy and occasionally a GIF or video to go with them.  Essentially the posts will be closer to 400-500 words instead of 1500-2000. Just some nuggets on info on a player, strategy, or general baseball topic.

NORICHIKA AOKI

aoki

-Did you know that Aoki led baseball with 34 infield hits? His 34 were the third-most over the last three years. Top two? Ichiro, of course, with 36 in 2011 and 53 (!) in 2010.

-He hit just .653 on line drives. And yes, it’s only because the league hit .718 on them. If he had matched league average he’d have gained 10 points pushing his average up to .298 last year.

-Though his final year before coming to MLB saw him hit just four home runs, he hit 14 in 2010, 16 in 2009, 14 again in 2008, and 20 in 2007. He is a heavy groundball hitter (55 percent) and his 17 percent line drive rate is modest, but there may be some home run growth from his 10 in 2012. We are talking 2-3 more here, but every bit helps, especially when it’s add-on value. You’re drafting Aoki for speed, batting average, and runs scored so even a repeat of his 10 home runs works.

-Imagine if the Brewers had used their sneaky star all year long. In fairness to them, their Ryan Braun-Carlos Gomez-Corey Hart setup was pretty formidable which made it difficult to find space for Aoki. Mat Gamel tore his ACL on May 4th shifting Hart to first and Aoki into a permanent role. From that point on he went: .289/.354/.433 with 9 HR, 48 RBI, 77 R, 30 SB in 557 PA.

-And finally, Aoki is going 140th overall in the NFBC drafts that have been conducted thus far. That’s just into the 10th round for those leagues. Not bad value for someone who put up that across-the-board effort. The 31-year old import is still a bit underrated.

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