Archive for ‘Baseball Prospectus’

Thursday: 03.28.2013

My Work: Around the ‘Net

It’s been a bit quiet around here since the release of the SP Guide, but not because I’ve just been sitting on my butt doing nothing (my full DVR can attest). Check me out at these various outlets:

Baseball Prospectus:

GuySpeed:

Daily Fantasy Sports Network:

Betting Dork Podcast:

Fantasy 15 Fox Sports Podcast:

Fantasy Fix Podcast:

Tuesday: 03.12.2013

Get Off Me, Cowherd

 

 

 

eatieisen

 

You too, Eisen.

 

 

(Most of you are like, “but you’re not Jason Collette”. No, no I’m not, but I do cohost that podcast.)

Friday: 02.22.2013

MLB At Bat 13

I was going to do a post letting everyone know that At Bat’s 2013 iteration was available, but my BP colleague Maury Brown already did all the fantastic leg work so I’ll point you to his preview of the app instead:

Biz of Baseball Previews At Bat

Meanwhile, after a pair of fake fake games yesterday as the Red Sox split up to take on a pair of colleges, we get real fake games today with four Spring Training games on the docket. This is a beautiful site:

stgames

Elsewhere on the net:

I wrote about five interesting pitchers to follow this Spring Training as they battle to be a part of the Opening Day 25.

I had Mike Gianella as a co-host, filling in for Jason Collette, and Bret Sayre as a guest on this week’s Towers of Power podcast. Gianella and Sayre are both new additions to the BP fantasy team for 2013.

Tuesday: 02.12.2013

LABR and Radio and Pods, Oh My!

Plenty of non-PaulSporer.com goings on lately including:

  • Tonight is the LABR mixed league draft. It’s my first “industry expert league”. I have done mocks for magazines before, but never a full league. Jason and I will be co-owning, but I’ll have the reins tonight at the draft with J out for family duty. If there was ever a reason to miss, it’s family stuff! If you’ve listened to the podcast at all, though, we have the same brain so it doesn’t really matter if one of us couldn’t make it. We got saddled with the 14th pick which might not be so bad when you really think about it. There’s the top three, another handful going in that four to seven range, and then a giant cluster of like-valued guys so picking near the end of that clump and then again quickly in the second round won’t be so bad. If you want to follow the draft live this evening, you can do so here. I’m fairly certain Jennifer Lawrence will be following along in the chatroom cheering me on. I mean, it’s whatever. 

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  • In addition to our regular podcast, the Towers of Power Fantasy Hour, I’ve appeared on another BP podcast twice in the last couple of weeks. Effectively Wild is doing their team-by-team previews and I did the Tigers one (obv) plus I contributed to the Cleveland Indians one. I’ll be on for the Nationals and Phillies in the future as well. BTW, I’d bump my Indians win projection by about 3-4 games with the Michael Bourn signing. I could reasonably go high since it’s the adding of him and subtraction of Drew Stubbs, but I’ll stick w/3-4. Speaking of these two podcasts, this probably shouldn’t surprise you because I’m a titan:

Meanwhile, here are some random things interesting me at the moment:

-Between Two Ferns Oscar Buzz Part 1, and Part 2: SO GOOD!!!! Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, Bradley Cooper, Christoph Waltz, Amy Adams, and of course Zack himself. Just so much greatness here.

-Harlem Shake everything!

-House of Cards

-Texas being awesome & Beyonce making a semi-duck face look cute as hell

-Jennifer Lawrence is the best. No one is more real during her interviews

-Pitchers & Catchers reporting all over the MLB:

ps&cs

Friday: 01.18.2013

New Podcast Out

BP-fest here of late (which is freeee today!), but Jason has posted the latest episode of our podcast. This week we spoke to Todd Zola of Mastersball.com centering our conversation on player valuation and some of the best ways to approach the process. It was a very good discussion. Additionally we discussed the three-way trade between Seattle-Oakland-Washington, Mike Napoli‘s contract finally getting done, and Matt Harrison‘s extension. We read some emails and discussed some favorite reads catching up after missing that segment for a few weeks. Stupidly, I forgot to include the Rafael Soriano signing. It’s probably because I was too focused on trying to make Manti Te’o girlfriend jokes so here are my thoughts on the signing:

I love it for Washington. It’s costly, sure, but they’re in win-now mode. Soriano now gives the Nats a ridiculous three-headed monster that they can use to shorten games to six innings on many nights. Soriano joins Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen to form the lockdown triumvirate (not to mention Craig Stammen kicking butt in his first full season as a reliever) with Soriano likely getting the first crack at the closer’s job if for no other reason than his salary. Not that he isn’t every bit as capable as the other two.

The last time Soriano was in the National League, he posted a 33 percent strikeout rate in a career-high 75.3 innings adding 27 saves as well. Craig Kimbrel (50 percent in 2012) and Aroldis Chapman (44 percent) think fanning just a third of the batters you face is cute, but for a mere mortal it is fantastic. Known as injury prone, health has eluded Soriano a bit over his entire career, but he has been a 60+ inning pitcher in three of the last four years and five of seven so he seems to have outrun the legitimacy of that tag in his late-20s and early-30s.

Sorry to those with Storen in keeper leagues. Clippard and Storen will be among the more expensive middle relievers in NL-only/deep mixed leagues and they will deliver plenty of value even if they only end up with a save or two all year. Meanwhile back on Soriano’s former team, David Robertson‘s value ticks upward again as the incumbent behind a now 43-year old Mariano Rivera returning from a torn ACL.

As for the articles referenced:

Friday: 01.18.2013

Free Baseball Prospectus Today!

BPfreeFriday

Not yet a BP subscriber? I’ll forgive you… this one time at least! Today is your chance to get over there and see what you’re missing. Click the pic above to go directly to my archive of work (modesty FTW!)

Click the pic below to read my favorite BP author:

Thorburn

Meanwhile, my SP and RP top 10 lists will be out later today ahead of the MLBN shows this evening.

Thursday: 01.17.2013

Baseball Prospectus Work

My latest piece at BP went up covering three more pitchers in the Keeper Reaper series. Today’s theme was converted relievers and included Chris Sale, Lance Lynn, and Jeff Samardzija. The fantasy team has been doing the KR series across all positions this off-season. If you’re unfamiliar, it’s a series where we discuss the guys who are tough keeper choices depending on league size. You don’t need help on how keeper-worthy Justin Verlander is regardless of league size, but someone like Brandon Morrow is a tougher decision. The league sizes covered are shallow (30 keepers), ,medium (60), deep (90), AL/NL only (60), and super-deep (200). Obviously we assume it’s straight keeper without round and dollar values otherwise it’d be impossible to answer on just about anyone. All of a sudden a $42 Verlander isn’t such a no-brainer. But your league simply keeps five apiece across 12 teams, we can tell you how we feel about players.

Here’s a taste of the Sale entry:

Of course, it wasn’t all roses and rubies (new phrase, use it!); his mechanics are so wretched that they will make your arm hurt worse than Hawk Harrelson makes your ears hurt when watching a game, and he came back down to earth in July through the rest of the year. His 3.6 K/BB wasn’t too far from the first half’s 3.9 mark, and his 9.5 K/9 topped his 8.5 from the first half. His ERA, however, ballooned from 2.19 to 4.03 and his WHIP from 0.96 to 1.34. The worst part was his home run rate exploding from 0.4 to 1.4. Righties obliterated his fastball to the tune of a 1077 OPS in the second half after he kept it at 685 through the first half.

Read the entire piece here.

In my Keeper Reaper entries, I’ve covered:

-Kris Medlen, Roy Halladay,and Morrow

-Wade Miley, Matt Moore, and Jarrod Parker

-Zack Greinke, Yu Darvish, and Aroldis Chapman

-Chris SaleLance Lynn, and Jeff Samardzija

If you’re not subscribed to Baseball Prospectus, you can do so here.

Additionally, Jason Collette and I will be recording our podcast tonight with guest Todd Zola of Mastersball and we will be talking a lot about player valuation methodology.

Wednesday: 01.9.2013

My Hall of Fame Ballot

I’m sure you are all well past Hall of Fame fatigue, so I’m presenting my ballot with limited commentary. I participated in the Baseball Prospectus balloting and we inducted seven guys, all quite deserving in my estimation.

  • Jeff Bagwell
  • Craig Biggio
  • Barry Bonds
  • Roger Clemens
  • Edgar Martinez
  • Rafael Palmeiro
  • Mike Piazza
  • Tim Raines
  • Curt Schilling
  • Alan Trammell

I made a late change from Larry Walker to Rafael Palmeiro, though let it be known I’m a huge Walker supporter and I kind of regret the change. I just didn’t have enough space this year with the 10 player limit. I also like Kenny Lofton, Mark McGwire, Fred McGriff, and Sammy Sosa.

These were all slam dunks for me on their merit, I simply had trouble limited it to 10.

Alas, we are racing toward a goose egg this year based on early returns gathered by Baseball Think Factory and that is truly pathetic. The writers are doing the game a huge disservice with their moralism. There are too many issues with the process to dive into them all and since I said I was presenting this with limited commentary, I’ll leave it here.

Friday: 06.15.2012

BP Work This Week

A quick look at my work available over at Baseball Prospectus this week.

  • I was in the Lineup Card again this week, this time outlining how the Seattle Mariners could be contenders for the 2015 World Series.  Pitching will lead the way if they are going to make a run.  Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and of course Felix Hernandez should they keep him around.  Think 2010 San Francisco Giants for their blueprint.  Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley will be their offense anchors with Nick Franklin and 2012 1st rounder Mike Zunino on the way.
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  • Next up was the Starting Pitcher Value Picks column that looks at some of the more widely available starters who should be getting more love.  I discussed A.J. Burnett yet again because I just don’t understand why he is still being overlooked and I also took a look at the recently called up Kris Medlen who was being stretched out in the minors for the Braves.
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  • The Weekly Planner will go live soon and it looks at the two-start pitchers worth trotting out in your leagues.  There aren’t a ton of great choices this week who will likely be available on waiver wires, so those with the aces with a pair of starts will have an even bigger leg up over those who merely stream guys.
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  • I did my first BP Unfiltered post this week comparing the 14 K perfect games of Sandy Koufax and Matt Cain.  
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  • And finally, episode 8 is out for The Towers of Power Fantasy Hour, a BP Fantasy Podcast.  We discussed tons of players ranging from Matt Cain, Troy Tulowitzki and Dustin Pedroia to Tony Campana, Gregor Blanco and Nate Eovaldi.  We also anoint Felix Doubront with a fantastic new nickname.  The Tigers won yesterday afternoon before the pdocast, so no rant on my beloved team.  By the way, I mentioned on the pod that I would be coming out with a Bryce Harper/Mike Trout-centric piece today, but I had to push it to Monday.  It is coming, though.
Friday: 06.8.2012

BP Work This Week

A quick look at my work available over at Baseball Prospectus this week.

  • First up was the Starting Pitcher Value Picks piece in which I looked at Phil Hughes, who I may have pumped up after watching him dismantle my favorite team in a complete game of excellence.  I profess my love of Edwin Jackson yet again.  Weird.  Completely unexpected.
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  • Next up was the Weekly Planner piece which takes a look at the all the two-start pitchers for next week and decides who you should go with and who you should probably avoid.  Aces are very light this week meaning you will have to look at some lesser options if you want to load up on two start starters in H2H leagues.  Edwin Jackson (yes, two mentions!!!) and Bud Norris are among my favorites in that group.
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  • I also appeared in the Lineup Card for the first time since joining Baseball Prospectus.  The week’s topic was “Favorite Baseball Books” and I discussed one of my favorite books ever: The Numbers Game by Alan Schwarz.  Just a fantastic journey through the history of baseball stats engineered by one of the best writers out there.  He did some fascinating work on concussions in the NFL and continues to dominate life for the NY Times.
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  • And finally, episode 7 will come out for the The Towers of Power Fantasy Hour, a BP Fantasy Podcast on Saturday.  We discussed a ton of players of varying import ranging from stars to lower tier “only” league options.  In lieu of specific segments like most weeks, the meat of the show were these in depth breakdowns on players.  Send your emails to fantasyhour@baseballprospectus.com.  We record on Thursdays usually, but moved to Friday this week.  We also have a Facebook Group that you should definitely join.  Here is my entrant for “Best Thing I Read This Week”.  I didn’t explain it particularly well on the podcast, but it cracked me the f up.
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