Tuesday: 08.6.2013

ERA Versus Lefties?????

Or ERAVERL to those stat nerds.

eraversuslefties

(For the uninitiated)

Monday: 08.5.2013

Brett Lawrie Catches His Own Ground-Rule Double???

Somehow.

lawriegr2b

Monday: 08.5.2013

Jim Johnson’s “Regression” Is 5 Bad Innings

When Jim Johnson had his dream season in 2012 – complete with an MLB-best 51 saves – many in the fantasy community screamed “REGRESSION!!” at the top of their lungs. The biggest hurdle for most (I believe) was getting their heads around a low-strikeout reliever being a dominant closer. Johnson’s next 20 percent strikeout rate will be his first and that’s not even special for a reliever let alone a primetime closer. Relievers have averaged a 22 percent rate in each of the last two seasons with the best sitting in the 30s (well the absolute best like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman post absurd 45-50% rates).

What didn’t make sense about the cries for regression was the seemingly forgotten or overlooked fact that Johnson threw 91 innings at his 2012 levels the year before with all of his key indicators being nearly equal:

jjohnson1112

Now his ERA indicators were calling for a jump with FIPs of 3.22 and 3.25, but that is hardly egregious. In short, this GB-heavy approach wasn’t a fluke.

Essentially two-thirds through the 2013 season has yielded some interesting results for Johnson as those thinking it couldn’t last might feel justified by his 3.26 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. But are the Johnson naysayers really “right” if the entire “regression” came in about a two-week, five-inning stretch from mid-to-late May? While Johnson’s ERA is more than three-quarters of a run higher than in 2012, you can make a case that he’s actually been better save a 10 percent portion of his season. To wit:

 jjohnsongoodbad

I realize this is some gaming with selective endpoints, but when four of the nine outings during which he allowed earned runs are clustered in about a two-week sample, I don’t think it’s egregious to show the before and after on each side. At its core, this is less about Johnson and more about just how skewed reliever numbers can be given their relatively small innings totals.

If you just lifted those five innings from Johnson’s totals, his numbers are through-the-roof brilliant. We can’t do that, but look at those numbers since he emerged out of his funk; they are quite excellent, too. In that particular sample, his groundball rate is at 66 percent – even better than the astronomical 62 percent rates from the last two years. By the way, he is once again leading baseball in saves with 38 and he’s actually outpacing his 2012 total. His pace of 55 would tie him for the third-most in baseball ever and the most since Eric Gagne hit the mark in 2003.

Always dig into a reliever’s numbers as the front page of their Baseball-Reference profile will often mislead you.

Friday: 08.2.2013

TINSTAAPP: Episode 10 – Liriano v. Leake

Rundown:

  • 0:00 – 10:35 — [Intro]
  • 10:36 – 52:48 — [Trade Deadline SP Breakdown: Garza, Peavy, Kennedy, Norris]
  • 52:49 – 1:31:13– [Emails: Price, Danks, Anibal, Injuries mid-delivery, Scherzer]
  • 1:31:56 – 2:36:22 — [Game of the Week: Liriano at Leake]
  • 2:36:23 – 2:47:55 — [Picking Next Week’s GotW: Jimenez at Fernandez AND Hughes at Kennedy]
  • 2:47:56 – 3:05:16 — [Homework]
  • 3:05:17 – 3:08:09 – [Homework Assignments]
  • 3:08:10 – 3:29:49 — [Recommendations and Close]

 

Recommendations:

 

Music by Thrice

Opener: Stare at the Sun

Closer: The Sky is Falling

 

 Download Here (84 MB; 3:29:50)
 RSS Feed
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Email Us pitchingpod@gmail.com

Wednesday: 07.31.2013

Some Ball-Sniffin’ Fun in San Diego

Cory Luebke smells something he likes.

balllickinpadres

Tuesday: 07.30.2013

Best Celebration Ever: Chad Qualls

 

 

Thank you, Chad Qualls!!QuallsFalls

Friday: 07.19.2013

TINSTAAPP: Episode 9 – Erlin v. Strasburg

I didn’t update this site when I posted eps 7 and 8 and I’m not sure why, but the latest episode is available!

Rundown:

  • 0:00 – 3:09 — [Intro/All-Star Break Doldrums]
  • 3:10 – 1:05:08 — [Emails]
  • 1:05:09 – 1:09:10 — [Awesome Interlude; New Website Coming?!]
  • 1:09:11 – 1:47:57 — [Game of the Week: Erlin at Strasburg]
  • 1:47:58 – 2:04:45 — [Picking Next Week’s GotW: Liriano at Leake]
  • 2:04:46 – 2:23:05 — [Homework]
  • 2:23:06 – 2:28:15 – [Homework Assignments]
  • 2:28:16 – 2:43:06 — [Recommendations and Close]

Recommendations:

Music by Thrice

  • Opener: Stare at the Sun
  • Closer: The Sky is Falling

 

 

 Download Here (65 MB; 2:43:06)
 RSS Feed
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Email Us pitchingpod@gmail.com

Monday: 06.10.2013

TINSTAAPP: Episode 6

The sixth episode of the TINSTAAPP is now available.

Notes:

  • This was supposed to come out during the week, but we had some server issues – apologies.
  • My fan was hitting the mic with an annoying frequency … I’m SO sorry about that.

Rundown:

  • 0:00 – 2:52 — [Intro]
  • 2:53 – 1:43:58 — [Emails]
  • 1:44:00 – 1:58:44 — [Peavy Interview with Buster Olney]
  • 1:58:45 – 2:12:54 — [Peavy Interview Discussion]
  • 2:13:23 – 3:25:00 — [Game of the Week: Sanchez at Burnett]
  • 3:25:01 – 3:32:24 — [Picking Next Week’s GotW]
  • 3:32:25 – 3:53:03 — [Homework]
  • 3:53:04 – 3:55:24 — [Recommendations and Close]

 

Recommendations:

 

Music by Thrice

Opener: Stare at the Sun

Closer: The Sky is Falling

Thursday: 05.30.2013

TINSTAAPP: Episode 5

The fifth episode of the TINSTAAPP is now available.

Show Rundown:

  • 0:00-5:18 – Intro
  • 5:19-1:10:21 – Emails
  • 1:11:07-2:37:10 – Game of the Week: Miller at Kershaw
  • 2:37:11-2:57:27 – GotW Pick
  • 2:57:28-3:06:00 – Doug Homework Turned: Justin Masterson
  • 3:06:01-3:16:26 – Homework Assigned
  • 3:16:27-3:25:03 – Show Close
Saturday: 05.25.2013

Allen Craig’s Hero Line

Vin Scully marveled at the Cardinals’ celebration of Allen Craig‘s homer, calling it the Hero’s Line. Like Scully I hadn’t seen this before and also like Scully, I loved it! Scully would’ve preferred it for a Dodger, but I was plenty fine with Craig being the recipient of this celebration.

 

craigHRline

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