A look at the thinnest position in baseball for 2007:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies – Utley sits atop his position by a wider margin than any other position in baseball heading into 07. His production at such a thin position raises his draft stock considerably. Of course, he doesn’t need the wide margin to justify a top pick as his numbers speak for him.
2. Brian Roberts, Baltimore Orioles – His 05 power disappeared in the first half of last season, but came back to life as he erased the nagging injuries. His primary value remains tied to his speed and AVG, but the power potential still exists. Expect another bundle of steals and an assault
3. Robinson Cano, New York Yankees – He won’t be hitting .340 again this season, but with a full season of work you can expect more RBI in that lineup and an increase HR that could top out above 20.
4. Josh Barfield, Cleveland Indians – Brilliant rookie season despite some struggles against right handers (.266 AVG). His trade to Cleveland does not elevate his power potential as much as many would expect as Petco and Jacob’s Field are both pitcher friendly parks that limit HRs.
5. Dan Uggla, Florida Marlins – A repeat is highly unlikely and given the fact that his value will be inflated, he is someone to avoid. He started to hit the ball on the ground a lot more in the second half and if he does that for the entire year, he could slice that 27 HR output in half.
6. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers – Health after wrist surgery at the end of 06 will determine how high his ceiling is this season. Suffered a significant power drop in first full major league season limiting him to one category of bankable productivity (speed).
7. Ian Kinsler, Texas Rangers – Breakout candidate in a quality lineup with 20 HR potential while chipping in double-digit stolen bases approaching the 20-mark as well. Look for a sophomore surge instead of the proverbial sophomore slump.
8. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds – Burst back onto the scene after a move to Cincinnati from Cleveland. A busted uber-prospect with the Indians that was left for dead before putting together a fabulous season for the Reds. Repeated performance is hardly a stretch given the fact that despite his storied history, he is just 25 years old.
9. Jeff Kent, Los Angeles Dodgers – Still producing at 100 years old, but his power capabilities are on a three-year downtrend. A risk regardless of whether or not he stays healthy, but the fact that the injuries are such a question raise red flags high in the air.
10. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles Angels – A very bright prospect that is atop many preseason ROY lists with his combination of power and speed. He will struggle some with a full-time job in the majors, but it isn’t unreasonable to expect double digit outputs in HR and SB.
11. Jorge Cantu, Tampa Bay Devil Rays – An injury comeback player who is still just 25 years old and part of a quality lineup. His struggles against lefties has been pronounced and couldn’t match his .296 output against righties from 2005 leading to a horrible AVG last year. Expect a return to the 20 HR plateau.
12. Orlando Hudson, Arizona Diamondbacks – Increased power and speed output due in large part to the sharp increase in plate appearances. At 29, he is still in the midst of his prime and could be onto something big with career highs in AVG, OBP and SLG.
13. Marcus Giles, San Diego Padres – Joins his brother in SD and remains a viable double digit threat in HR and SB especially considering he still on the right side of 30. Fluctuations in production has been due in large part to nagging injuries.
14. Ray Durham, San Francisco Giants – A career high in HR at age 34 raises plenty of eyebrows and you’d be plenty smart to expect a significant drop in that total. Should still offer an output around the 15 HR mark with a .285+ AVG in the late rounds of drafts.
15. Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox – Has delivered on expectations after coming over from Japan, but is in the midst of a four year speed decline dating back to his days in Japan. Increased his HR in 2nd half despite increasing his groundball rate as well.
16. Mark DeRosa, Chicago Cubs – The Cubs wildly overrated DeRosa, but I don’t think too many league owners will do so coming into this season. His 2nd half dented the AVG and brought it back down to Earth.
17. Luis Castillo, Minnesota Twins – A nice AVG and bag full of SB has been the expectation of Castillo for years and he continues to deliver the goods. His 25 SB was the highest total in four years.
18. Jose Lopez, Seattle Mariners – Huge 2nd half dropoff in power could be attributed to workload with 603 AB. Given the dearth of talent 2B, he does offer value with his potential especially if he can stay consistent over the entire season.
19. Chris Burke, Houston Astros – Still a little raw even at 27, but there is plenty to like with Burke especially if he gets the AB. He offers that same power-speed combo found a lot within this group of 2B after Utley.
20. Ty Wigginton, Tampa Bay Devil Rays – Peripherals back up the power surge and at 29, it is reasonable to expect him to retain that ability. Again, as part of that solid Tampa Bay lineup, the opportunity for success should present itself over the course of the season.
21. Dustin Pedroia, Boston Red Sox – Big time prospect with a skillset that far exceeds his dismal .191 showing in a cup of coffee last year. Inexperience may leave him undervalued in many leagues.
22. Placido Polanco, Detroit Tigers – Value could be inflated from postseason success. Had an uncharacteristic struggle with OBP last year, but retained his high AVG. Four year drop in SB saps any significant fantasy value as he moves into his 30s.
23. Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays – Not much different from Polanco except that he has more potential to perform, while Polanco is a known AVG commodity. Secondary numbers say he hit above his head in 06 and a drop in 07 could be in the cards.
24. Jose Vidro, Seattle Mariners – A shell of what he once was, Vidro may finally be able to stay healthy as a full time DH with Seattle. There isn’t much reason for optimism here as he has dropped and stayed the same in HR for each of the last five seasons.
25. Craig Biggio, Houston Astros – His skills are certainly eroding, but he remains a viable power threat three straight 20+ HR seasons. At 41, there is no reason to gamble on a guy like Biggio especially when he is in the throes of a four-year OBP decline.
Baseball By Paul 