I’ve never done crack, but I imagine that the withdrawals from quitting the stuff are similar to what I suffer through during the All Star Break. While likely not nearly as dramatic, I suspect many others search for ways to keep themselves engaged, but occupied. This naturally leads back to your league’s homepage in search of ways to shore up the weaknesses for the stretch run. The dust has settled on the “first half” (technically the 81-game mark hit weeks ago) and every fantasy owner should know full well what they need to get to their desired result.
Is your team in need of offense? I have compiled a group of players that have shown a propensity for second half excellence in the past three seasons by registering an .850 or better OPS in at least two of the three seasons. Of the 59 players that qualified, 16 of them completed the hat-trick and the names within that list are unlikely to surprise many. In fact, the entire list is rather star-laden but that doesn’t render it useless. We know that stars are supposed to perform, but if you’re acquiring the high-dollar players from a team dumping and looking at 2009, this list will guide you towards the players you are likely to get the most gains from during the last 2 1/2 months of the season.
I will start with the upper echelon of players. As I mentioned, this group gave .850 or better in each of the three seasons studied (2005-2007). In fact, the lowest three-year average in OPS is Jeff Kent‘s .911. By and large, this group of players will represent the guys you ought to be targeting for the second-half surge. Some of them are in the midst of otherworldly seasons already so a continuation of their post-All Star Break mashing could lead to some record-breaking totals.
Here is a detailed look at the group sorted by OPS. The far right column is their difference in OPS from before to after the All Star Break. The 3-year average column directly below each player is their total line divided by three… pretty self-explanatory stuff there!
Seeing David Ortiz & Ryan Howard top the list should please owners of these guys quite a bit. For Ortiz, it was a painfully slow start followed by an injury currently shelving him that his derailed his season while Howard had delivered little more than raw power until the beginning of July. Even at his worst (like a .234 batting average), Howard’s power production makes him rosterable in just about any format. He is already turning things around in July with both the power (seven home runs in 10 games) AND the batting average (.375, 15-for-40). The time to buy low has probably vanished by now, but he should still be a superstar target, especially if he can be had at ANY amount of discount.
The usual suspects round this list though Kent has been rather “blah” so far this season. The Dodgers could really, really use a hot summer from him considering their lineup’s immense struggles. If he achieves his average output from the past three seasons, he will be very close to last year’s final numbers and that’s pretty darn good for a 40-year old second baseman.
Moises Alou might be done forever with his latest injury likely sidelining him for all of 2008. He is (was?) a truly amazing hitter that would get the job done whenever he was the lineup. Unfortunately, at age 42, his body is just not holding up anymore. I decided to leave him on the list essentially to pay homage to his greatness because I knew he wasn’t going to be a viable target for fantasy owners in the 2nd half of 2008.
Tomorrow I’ll post the remaining 43 players on the list. It is the group of players that reached the .850 OPS or better mark two out of the three seasons I looked at for this study. That list contains top-flight superstars, mid-level semistars, average players and somewhat scrubby players that you might be able to pick up off the heap and speculate on to see if they continue their post-All Star Break hitting trend.
Baseball By Paul 