Continuing my analysis of an on-going draft taking place in the BaseballHQ.com forums:
3.1 – Victor Martinez, C/1B – Boston Red Sox
Outside of 2008 in which he was hurt, this is another durable and consistent performer with a solid BB% for a catcher. I’m curious to see if you guys think I’m overvaluing positional scarcity with this pick, but I’m pretty high on V-Mart with a full year in a potent BOS lineup.
Rd 1 – Albert Pujols, 1B
Rd 2 – Kevin Youkilis, 3B
My thoughts: This is a powerful team so far with one very scarce (catcher) and another relatively scarce position (third base) locked up. Sometime you’ll hear gripes about picking first, but I think this drafter is off to a great start building around the best player.
3.2 – Dustin Pedroia, 2B – Boston Red Sox
This was a tough one; I think in an absolute sense, I’m passing on a few better players here. But Pedroia gets me a few things:
1. I need some steals after taking Dunn at 2.12.
2. There’s a dearth of OBP at 2B. Pedroia gets me that. And a ton of runs.
3. At just 26 this upcoming year, I get the hope of upside. But if he just does what he did in 08 and 09, I’m still pretty happy. I love the combo of consistency + upside.
Pedroia’s HR and SB splits by half were pretty weird in 2009, but I’ll chalk it up to noise.
Rd 1 – Hanley Ramirez, SS
Rd 2 – Adam Dunn, OF/1B
My thoughts: For the reasons the drafter mentioned, Pedroia is a very solid pick here. I really love the trio he has put together. It has dominant OBP, great power, great speed and great runs. Three picks in, I think I like this team the best.
3.5 – Jayson Werth, OF – Philadelphia Phillies
36 HR, including 21 in the second half of 2009, with 20 SB in 23 attempts, this guy is clearly the best power/speed combination still on the board. Strangely enough despite his obvious base-stealing skills, his SX rates under 100 due to the almost total absence of triples. I think the only reason to possibly avoid this guy would be his past injury history, but he has now shown what he can do when completely healthy.
Rd 1 – Ryan Braun, OF
Rd 2 – Joey Votto, 1B
My thoughts: Of course as I say I like one team the best, I move on to another that I really like. This team is also very well built with offensive production across the board. The only reason I’d give team 2 the edge is because they have more position scarcity covered.
3.6 – Jason Bay, OF – Boston Red Sox
I felt that I needed to add a run producer since I took Ellsbury with my second pick. In 4 of the last 5 years (2007 was the bad year) Bay has hit over 30 homers, driven in and scored over 100 runs and has not had a OBP below .374. I am a little concerned about his low contact rate but he seemed to make up for it with his 15% BB. I might not have taken him at this point if we were using BA; however his career OBP is very good.
Rd 1 – Mark Teixeira, 1B
Rd 2 – Jacoby Ellsbury, OF
My thoughts: Like team 3, this team is building from the deep positions, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. If superstars last, you take them even if they are at the positions perceived to be the deepest. Tremendous power and speed here as well. There are a few others I’d have taken instead of Bay to go with Teix and Ellsbury, but it wasn’t a bad pick, either.
3.07 – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B – Washington
Third base is pretty thin for being a top power position with five very good ones already gone (ARod, Wright, Reynolds, Longoria and Youk). I actually have Zimm ahead of Youk for 3B so I’m getting the 5th-best by my list. His power really developed in 2009 and we might not have seen the peak as he is just 25 years old. With four full seasons under his belt, I’m sure that last piece about his age surprised some of you. His value is unchanged with the switch from AVG to OBP as he remains good, but not great. That said, I think his OBP will improve in the coming seasons by way of more walks. Even if it doesn’t happen in 2010, I’m happy with a big power source locked up at 3B.
Rd 1 – Matt Kemp, OF
Rd 2 – Grady Sizemore, OF
My thoughts: I really wanted to get a 3B before the talent cliff dove and I couldn’t be happier with a young emerging star like Zimmerman.
3.8 – Chone Figgins, 3B – Los Angeles Angels
I have to admit since this is a mock draft that I feel like I was forced into this pick. My top 6 guys for this slot were picked in the last 8 picks and I feel that the dropoff at 3rd base for the team I’m building is huge after Figgins. 42 steals last year would be a welcome addition to my team with the 30/30 chance with Kinsler. 114 runs and a .397 obp more than make up for the fact that he doesn’t hit for power and his RBI’s are low. I also feel that the other guy I had targeted will be picked next.
I may sound a little defensive with this pick, but I can be huge on tiers. I just see the dropoff at third being to big to not take Figgins since all of you guys took my other targets.
Rd 1 – Prince Fielder, 1B
Rd 2 – Ian Kinsler, 2B
My thoughts: It was between Zimmerman and Figgins for me. I would’ve been fine with either as I could’ve used a top base stealer just as much as a legit run producer. This team has an excellent infield.
3.9 – Jimmy Rollins, SS – Philadelphia Phillies
I have a feeling that this pick is going to come off as a “homer” pick as I am a Phils fan. His 1st half of 2009 was a complete disaster and that is masking a really nice 2nd half for Rollins. In the 2nd half of 2009 he hit .295 with 15 HRS, 50 RBIs and 21 SBs (can I just times that by 2 for 2010!). Jimmy hit the same amount of FBs in the 1st and 2nd halves but more of his GBs turned into LDs. Jimmy posted the 2nd lowest K% of his career combined with the lowest BABIP at .253 (career avg. is .295). I am assuming the sub .300 OBP is a thing of the past while locking up 25 HR/40 SB potential in RD 3 from SS is valuable.
Rd 1 – Joe Mauer, C
Rd 2 – Mark Reynolds, 3B
My thoughts: A lot of risk locked up in this team with three of the biggest question marks for 2010 in three rounds. Two are coming off of career years with everyone wondering how sustainable it is while the other has fallen from his MVP-caliber production leaving many wondering if he’ll get back to that previous level. It’s more risk that I’m comfortable with this early, but it could really pay off.
3.10 – Justin Morneau, 1B – Minnesota Twins
Nothing out of the ordinary here. Hoping for health but reports say he’ll be fine.
Rd 1 – Tim Lincecum, SP
Rd 2 – Evan Longoria, 3B
My thoughts: As long as he will be fine, this is an absolute steal in the third round.
3.11 – Pablo Sandoval, 3B – San Francisco Giants
After watching my 3B picks disappear before my eyes, I’ll not gamble on waiting for the 4th round. Kung Fu Panda for me. He may well move to 1B but for now he’s 3B eligible.
Rd 1 – Ryan Howard, 1B
Rd 2 – Jose Reyes, SS
My thoughts: When you look at what Sandoval did in 2009, this pick isn’t surprising especially given how 3Bs were going as the drafter noted.
3.12 – Brian Roberts, 2B – Baltimore Orioles
Sandoval was my pick. I was praying he’d fall that far. The last month of last season Roberts showed a good walk rate, an almost .400 OBP. He’s a 20/30 guy, and I pretty much have stolen bases wrapped up with a good amount of power left on the board.
Rd 1 – Carl Crawford, OF
Rd 2 – Matt Holliday, OF
My thoughts: Excellent consolation prize after losing out on Sandoval. Roberts is an unsung guy, but he’s a great addition to any team.
3.13 – Adam Lind, OF – Toronto Blue Jays
And Roberts was mine! I can’t believe you just snagged him.
Lind just kept staring at me and the more I looked, the more I liked. He’ll be 26 years old in 2010 and coming off of a 93/35/114/.370OBP season with an even better 2H power-wise. The reversion back to a normal G/F ratio in ’09 over ’08 also gives me comfort in his future, as do the doubles that came with the HR. I didn’t want to wait too long for my first OF, either.
Rd 1 – Miguel Cabrera, 1B
Rd 2 – Troy Tulowitzki, SS
My thoughts: One of the bigger surprises of 2009, but I think he’s for real giving this team three elite run producers with a little foundational speed from Tulow. Great group to start considering he’s picking 13th.