Despite playing for a chief rival of my beloved Detroit Tigers, Grady Sizemore is a favorite of mine. He’s a do-everything fantasy asset that is important to the Indians as he is to your fantasy team and few guys were more sought after coming into the 2009 season than Sizemore. He was fresh off of a 30-30 season in 2008 and the only thing keeping him from being a legitimate #1 overall pick contender was batting average, which had lingered around .270 the two seasons prior to 2009. He was as reliable as they come too having played in 158, 162, 162 and 157 games in the four years leading up to 2009. So what happened?
Of course he only played 108 games, most of which he seemed to labor through with nagging injuries that would eventually shelve him for most of June and September, and failed to reach even .250 (.248) while hitting just 18 home runs and knocking in 64 runs. His 13 stolen bases were 25 off of his 2008 mark. It was a pretty significant bust of a season instead of a bust out 40-40 chasing season. But enough about last year. We need to accept that it was a washed out season and look forward to what Sizemore can do in 2010.
As is almost always the case, stars coming off of washout seasons in one year should be primary targets the next (exceptions being major, career-altering injuries). This is because the general populous of fantasy baseball owners tends to forgot those who don’t play or under-perform expectations. If not forget, at least shun. Sizemore’s average draft position (ADP) so far this season is 25th, which is third round for standard 12-team mixed mock draft. Even in AL Only leagues he’s sitting at 12th overall. Wow, how quickly we forget that this guy was a perennial 25-25 guys with 100 runs and 80 RBIs from 2005-2008. Mind you, this slide doesn’t bother me, especially if it holds until the Spring when real drafts and auctions start to take place. All things out of Cleveland have Sizemore at 100% by Spring Training and if he performs at all in the Cactus League, his draft spot will start heading upward.
Of the 24 going ahead of him right now, I’d take him ahead of Tim Lincecum (12), Ian Kinsler (16), Mark Reynolds (19), Victor Martinez (22), Jason Bay (23) and Matt Holliday (24). I would have a tough call between he and Carl Crawford (14) and might normally slot him above Jimmy Rollins (20) and Jose Reyes (21) if shortstop weren’t so god-awfully shallow. And I’d personally prefer him over Ryan Howard (10), but not at Howard’s ADP so I didn’t include him. The trick with a draft is that you don’t know where the other owners value everyone else so sometimes you have to take what might look like a reach to some but is impossible to really judge. If I’m picking 8th in a 12 team and I get Miguel Cabrera in the first round and then Sizemore is available at 17, I have to take him if I want him because there is virtually no chance he’s going to make it to 32. Is that a reach because his ADP is eight spots lower or is the right move because I took him with my slot in that ADP range. My only pick near the #25 spot is #17, so I either get my guy or bet that he’s now going to fall below seven spots below his ADP.
But enough on game theory in straight drafts. The bottom line is that I’m in the camp ready to bet on a full return by Sizemore in 2010. I wouldn’t let him get past me in the 2nd round of straight drafts regardless of what slot I’m picking in and I see him as a centerpiece investment in auction leagues. The beauty of it is you might not have to invest in him like a top tier player depending on when your auction takes place. Since a lot (ok, 4) of emailers have asked for the projection line as in the Wieters and Posey profiles, I will oblige.
Sizemore in 2009: .248-73-18-64-13
Sizemore in 2010: .290-115-32-85-25
Baseball By Paul 