Blind Resume Comparison #1 – May 31st

Something that holds a lot of fantasy baseball players back in their analysis is name value.  Whether on the high end, in the middle or at the low end, fantasy owners put a lot of stock into name which can cost them when analyzing deals, pickups and start-sit decisions.

Oftentimes we’ll create a narrative to fit the name value of the player we are analyzing.  A star-level player with a modest stat line is “working through a funk” or “about to turn it around” or “due to turn it up soon” and depending on the stat line in question, any or all of those may very well be true.  But that’s no always the case.  On the other end, a surging no-name is “getting lucky and sure to regress soon” or “a fluke that can’t keep this up” or “doing well, but definitely not better than *insert name of guy drafted 10 rounds before player in question*”.

An eye-opening exercise is to look at a pair of resumes without the names, do you analysis and then uncover the names.  Obviously, this can’t really be done solo for a bevy of reasons so I’m here to help!  The first blind resume comparison (BRC) is with a pair of middle infielders:

202 AB 199

.243 AVG .261

29 R 30

4 HR 2

16 RBI 18

12 SB 15

32nd Draft Season ADP 70th

Both sets of underlying skills support the numbers we have seen thus far meaning neither is in for a huge batting average regression tied to BABIP nor is there anything egregiously askew in their HR/FB rates.

The more well-thought of player coming into the season has seen a shift in his skills, though, with his strikeout rate rising nearly 7% to a career worst 19% while his groundball rate has skyrocketed 11% up to 50%.  Our other player saw his stock drop a bit after a stagnant, but still fantasy-valuable 2010 season.  He is pacing toward a season we have seen from him before and given his position on the diamond, he is a prime fantasy asset.

The question is would someone laugh at you for offering the guy on the right for the one on the left?  You can answer that after the reveal.  Regardless of the answer, it really shouldn’t draw snickers, rather it should be seen as a complete serious offer.  The skills change of our guy on the left suggests he is going to vastly underperform expectations of a 32nd overall pick, but at the same time will maintain value albeit different proportioned.

Have an idea who the players are?  Their names are in white font just below if you want to select the space and reveal them.

Dustin Pedroia

Elvis Andrus

For those of you not wanting to do that or unable to for whatever reason click here & here for the player profiles.

Interesting, huh?

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