Baseball By Paul

Jimmy Rollins' hitting streak is snapped at 38 games after an 0-for-4 effort this afternoon against the St. Louis Cardinals. His streak is the 7th longest in baseball history:

Longest hitting streaks
Rank , Player , Year, Games
1. Joe DiMaggio, 1941, 56
2. Willie Keeler, 1897, 44
2. Pete Rose, 1978, 44
3. Bill Dahlen, 1894, 42
4. George Sisler, 1922, 41
5. Ty Cobb, 1911, 40
6. Paul Molitor, 1987, 39
7. Jimmy Rollins, 2005-06, 38

San Francisco Giants pitcher Noah Lowry grabbed his side after a pitch in the second inning of today's game against the Atlanta Braves.  After attempting a warm-up toss, he decided to shut it down and come out of the game.   

Unbiased Yankee Fan had a pretty funny post regarding New York Mets closer Billy Wagner's introduction music. It can be found here.

Everyone recognizes that it will be the rarest of occasions when the New York Yankees offense is kept in check. What's more, many expect that the rotation will be much improved over last year's collection including a return to form for Randy Johnson and to a much lesser extent, Mike Mussina. And of course, the indomitable Mariano Rivera anchoring the bullpen. But what about the bridge from starter-to-Rivera? With just one series completed, it is crucial to avoid a "mountain out of a molehill" situation, but the Yankees' bullpen didn't necessarily exude strength before the season and after the three game set with Oakland, we see why:

IP: 6.67
H: 8
R: 7
ER: 4
BB: 5
K: 6
ERA: 5.40
WHIP: 1.95

I know, I know, sample size! However, what is there about Jaret Wright, Tanyon Sturtze, Scott Proctor, Ron Villone, Mike Myers, and Kyle Farnsworth that makes me believe I shouldn't expect tons more of the same? Nothing. This is not a good bullpen. Wright was an awful signing from the get-go, Sturtze is on a three-year decline in earned run average, but the trend is less appealing when you consider that last year's 4.73 was the best mark, Proctor at least shows some promise, but hasn't been able to parlay minor league success into major league consistency. Meanwhile Villone and Myers are old re-treads at 36 and 37 years old, respectively. That leaves Farnsworth as the X-factor. He is coming off of his best season that was split between Detroit and Atlanta. He was brought in to replace Tom Gordon, who bolted to become Philadelphia's closer. His transition into the Yankee fabric will be key to any success this team expects to have this season. It isn't the strongest of trends in terms of determining success, but since 2000, Farnsworth has posted his best seasons in odd-numbered years while struggling mightily during the even-numbered ones.

ERA+ Since 2000 –
2000: 66
2001: 154
2002: 55
2003: 129
2004: 96
2005: 198

Without a reversal in this trend or a quality level of unexpected performance from the other bullpenners, this team is doomed to relinquish several leads its offense puts up, as it did the past two evening to the Oakland Athletics.

Philadelphia shortstop Jimmy Rollins ripped the second pitch from Mark Mulder down the left field line for a double, his 38th straight game with a hit. He is 19 games away from breaking Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak record.

Ken Griffey Jr. smacked his 537th home run to break a tie for 12th place with Mickey Mantle. The home run also marked his 1538th run batted in, breaking him out of a tie with Joe DiMaggio for 38th overall. A healthy season could move Griffey to as high as 8th on the All-Time list should he meet his 162-game average of 41 home runs. It is more likely that he'll play closer to 135-140 games, but that could catapult to 9th above Rafael Palmeiro. Since joining Cincinnati in 2000, Griffey Jr. has averaged 98 games played with 23 home runs per season.

All-Time HR Top 12 List

1. Hank Aaron 755
2. Babe Ruth 714
3. Barry Bonds 708
4. Willie Mays 660
5. Sammy Sosa 588
6. Frank Robinson 586
7. Mark McGwire 583
8. Harmon Killebrew 573
9. Rafael Palmeiro 569
10. Reggie Jackson 563
11. Mike Schmidt 548
12. Ken Griffey 537

Young catcher Jeff Mathis is starting his first game of 2006 in place of Jose Molina.  The 23-year old prospect posted a .839 OPS in Salt Lake City last year with 50 extra base hits including 21 home runs.  Mathis figures to get some quality at-bats and could even supplant Molina with a good showing.   

In the most predictable story of 2006, Dodgers 1B Nomar Garciaparra is headed for the disabled list. The off-season free agent acquisition suffered a strained ribcage muscle in the last game of the Spring Training delaying his effort in logging more games than the 81 and 62 played in 2004 and 2005, respectively. Thankfully for their fans, the Dodgers were smart enough (or as smart as you can be when purposely getting Nomar) to limit the Garciaparra signing to just a one-year deal. Though just 32, Garciaparra is beginning to make critics and supporters alike wonder if he can get back to the days of dominance when he won back-to-back American League batting titles (1999 & 2000) or even as recently as 2003 when he smacked 78 extra base hit (including 13 triples) while playing a career-high 156 games.

Further troubling for the Dodgers is that another off-season acquisition, Kenny Lofton, was also placed on the disabled list with a strained calf muscle. Tough to be too surprised by this news given that Lofton is 38 years old and has logged 110+ games every year but one (2004) since 1992. Another of the Dodgers' pickups this off-season was Sandy Alomar Jr., a name that is synonymous with "injury", who is 40 years old and hasn't managed more than 97 games since 1998. To be fair, he is simply supposed to back up Dioner Navarro, but I can't make sense of this kind of signing. Of course, it has all been done before. General Manager Ned Colletti built his own Jurassic Park in San Francisco, too, leaving a roster that features 13 players with 10 or more years of experience with six of them having been around for 15 or more.

For now, the Dodgers continue on, filling in the holes left by Lofton and Garciaparra and simply wait for the other shoe to drop.   That other shoe of course being whatever ailment is sure to strike Mr. Malady himself, J.D. Drew.  Because as they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same.  

Pieces of the following article were written by Paul Sporer for Sportsblurb.com and also appear on FOXSports.com

American League

East:

New York Yankees – the lineup they have constructed is simply too amazing to ignore. They still lack a dominant starter as age has met both Mike Mussina and Randy Johnson, but both should be efficient, especially with that kind of run support. It will be interesting to see if Jason Giambi is back to form as his second half indicated last season.

Boston Red Sox – their key off-season acquisition, Josh Beckett, desperately hopes to play an entire season, but until he does, his impact is suspect. Getting Coco Crisp to replace Johnny Damon was a stroke of genius. The defensive unit as a whole has been significantly upgraded. Bullpen issues still linger, but if Jon Papelbon is as good as advertised, then they could be alleviated sooner than later.

Toronto Blue Jays – all that money spent and still little more than a 3^rd place finish. A.J. Burnett, an awful signing this off-season, is already injured to the surprise of no one. The team inexplicably assembled a glut of first base-designated hitter types, which may cut into at-bats for some, namely Eric Hinske.

Baltimore Orioles – a growing club that is still a few years away. Daniel Cabrera and Erik Bedard offer hope for the rotation and youngster Chris Ray gets a full-fledged shot at becoming the closer for years to come. Rookie Nick Markakis has turned heads and will get a fair share of at-bats.

Tampa Bay Devil Rays – plenty of promise in the lineup with much, much more on the way. Also, the Scott Kazmir trade looks better and better every day, but starting guys like Casey Fossum and Doug Waechter is never good.

Central:

Cleveland Indians – need to learn to beat the White Sox to solidify their position atop the division. The lineup is only getting better as Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner blossom. Aaron Boone won’t get much of a chance to mess up before giving way to Andy Marte.

Chicago White Sox – still very much a contender with that pitching staff. The offense features two of the game’s premier sluggers with Paul Konerko and Jim Thome. Overall the team played above its head last year meaning a regression is likely.

Detroit Tigers – it’s all about progress for the Tigers. They don’t have the makeup an impact contender, but are good enough to top the .500 mark with a solid lineup and capable rotation. Big seasons from rookies Justin Verlander and Joel Zumaya could send the Tigers higher.

Minnesota Twins – tough to go against a team with Johan Santana. The offense just doesn’t have the firepower to be a big time contender in one of baseball’s toughest divisions. From Santana to closer Joe Nathan, the pitching staff is very solid, but Francisco Liriano is the bullpen’s only left-hander.

Kansas City Royals – what can you say about this team that hasn’t already been said? They are awful, there is no doubt about that and thus they will finish last in their division and likely lose over 100 games.

West:

Oakland Athletics – the Moneyballers are back and ready to finally do something of merit in the post-season. The Frank Thomas addition could pay large dividends, while the Milton Bradley assuredly will. Growth from Dan Johnson, a full season from Bobby Crosby, and carryover from a big spring for Eric Chavez will take the offense up. The pitching staff is the league’s best from top to bottom.

Los Angeles Angels – adding J.C. Romero and Jeff Weaver strengthen the staff immensely. There are too many questions in the offense to be considered the favorite including Casey Kotchman in a full-time role, the health of guys like Garret Anderson, Darin Erstad, and Tim Salmon, and what can guys like Edgardo Alfonzo, Maicer Izturis, Robb Quinlan, and Juan Rivera do when Chone Figgins isn’t playing their position.

Texas Rangers – adding the earned run average champion is a start. That said, there is no way that Kevin Millwood will come anywhere near defending his crown after moving from Cleveland to Texas. Any questions of contention still focus squarely on the pitching. The offense remains one of the league’s most high-octane ones and add Brad Wilkerson and call-up Ian Kinsler to replace Alfonso Soriano.

Seattle Mariners – with Kansas City’s presence in the Central, this might be baseball’s toughest division. No, the Mariners won’t contend for any length of time, but they have one of the most intriguing stories of the season with 20-year old phenom, Felix Hernandez. Unfortunately, there is a sharp decline and thus despite a decent offense, this team will struggle to reach anything more than 75 wins.

Playoffs:

Oakland def. New York

Los Angeles def. Cleveland

Oakland def. Los Angeles

Oakland wins American League

National League

East:

New York Mets – I don’t care how many division titles the Atlanta Braves have won in a row. Not a single one of them will help them in 2006. The Mets are stacked once again, but for once they are finally starting to build a team instead a collection of high-profile players. Carlos Beltran is primed for a huge bounce back season and David Wright is quickly becoming one of the league’s premier players. Aaron Heilman and Billy Wagner anchor the bullpen.

Philadelphia Phillies – I don’t care how many division titles the Atlanta Braves have won in a row. Not a single one of them will help them in 2006. Ryan Howard steps in for Jim Thome and his spring is suggesting that he is just fine with that tall order. This team’s fate will hang on its pitching staff and whether or not the aged bullpen that includes three players with 15 or more years of experience can hold up.

Atlanta Braves – I don’t care how many division titles the Atlanta Braves have won in a row. Not a single one of them will help them in 2006. It is not so much Leo Mazzone’s departure as it is the overall uncertainty that looms over the pitching staff. Tim Hudson and John Smoltz are the only proven quality amongst the group. The closer situation remains a headache as well. Andruw Jones will not hit 51 home runs again, but he will hit 30 and the offense can score runs at a reliable clip.

Washington Nationals – I don’t care how… wait a minute that is totally irrelevant here. After a surprising effort in their debut season, the Nationals simply don’t have the talent to compete in the National League East. Jose Guillen’s power could suffer from lingering wrist problems. What is up with Nick Johnson’s mustache???

Florida Marlins – the dubious distinction of being the Kansas City Royals of the National League. Thus, what can you say about this team that hasn’t already been said? They are awful, there is no doubt about that and thus they will finish last in their division and likely lose over 100 games.

Central:

St. Louis Cardinals – the division’s best team, not that that is tough. The fifth starter rotation is unsettling with Sidney Ponson and the team isn’t as deep as last season’s. Scott Rolen’s return from an injury-riddled 2005 will be key to their overall success.

Houston Astros – whether or not Roger Clemens returns, they can take second in the division. That said, I suspect he will return in May and lead a rotation that features three aces with he, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Oswalt. Scoring remains a problem, but a full season from Lance Berkman and if Preston Wilson can do something outside of Coors, they would be all right.

Milwaukee Brewers – a team on the rise for several years continues to grow. Their success will hinge largely on the production from youngsters Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, and Rickie Weeks. Despite a career-high of 32 home runs, the team expects more production from star outfielder Carlos Lee.

Chicago Cubs – it is the same two pitching questions again this year. If Mark Prior and Kerry Wood exhibit anything resembling health, this team’s potential is as high as winning the division. Carlos Zambrano is a solid anchor, but without Prior and Wood, this staff is downright mediocre at best. Juan Pierre will be a catalyst for the offense that includes top power from Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez.

Pittsburgh Pirates – too young to be a force, but talented nonetheless. A trio of young upstarts with Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, and Ian Snell join Oliver Perez to form a solid rotation in Pittsburgh. Perez, however, desperately aims to rebound from an absolutely horrid 2005.

Cincinnati Reds – with Griffey seemingly back, this offense can score. But they still have Eric Milton with a prominent role in the rotation. Enough said.

West:

Los Angeles Dodgers – this prediction relies heavily on health issues. J.D. Drew, Eric Gagne, Nomar Garciaparra, Brad Penny, and Odalis Perez need to register full seasons for the Dodgers to compete. Additions of Rafael Furcal and Bill Mueller makes for a solid left side of the infield.

San Francisco Giants – if “he” plays over 125 games, they will compete because of the effect “he” can have on an entire lineup. Jason Schmidt, Noah Lowry, and Matt Cain produce a formidable top of the rotation. Age is a huge factor with 13 guys logging 10+ years of experience, six of which have 15+ years.

San Diego Padres – backed into a division title last year. They won’t be as lucky this year. High hopes for Chris Young to be the number two to Jake Peavy are in order, but even that won’t be enough for this offensively starved team. If Termel Sledge gets the at-bats, he can hit upwards of 20 home runs.

Colorado Rockies – same old story with the Rockies. Per usual, the Rockies will be able to put up runs, both in and out of Coors. Todd Helton had a down year and still managed a .979 OPS. Youngsters like Matt Holliday, Clint Barmes, and Brad Hawpe will benefit greatly from their home field allowing the team to score with just about any team. The pitching is once again the story and it remains a sad one. Despite the promise shown by the likes of Aaron Cook and Jeff Francis, they will never amount to more than average-to-below average pitchers while pitching in that park.

Arizona Diamondbacks – one of the most exciting, young teams in all of baseball. However, outside of Brandon Webb, the pitching staff is best described as awful. A lackluster outfield that features Eric Byrnes, Luis Gonzalez, and Shawn Green could see super-prospect Chris Young called up sooner than later. Prospects Stephen Drew and Justin Upton rate among the top five in all of baseball in many circles.

Playoffs:

Philadelphia def. St. Louis

New York def. Los Angeles

New York def. Philadelphia

New York wins National League

World Series:

Oakland def. New York

Oakland Wins World Series

 

 

Awards –
American League:

MVP – Eric Chavez

ROY – Kenji Jojima

Cy Young– Kelvim Escobar

National League:

MVP – Carlos Beltran

ROY – Josh Barfield

Cy Young – Brandon Webb