Baseball By Paul

I can’t help but feel culpable for tonight’s loss to the Cincinnati Reds, 9-4, snapping a seven game winning streak. I spent the evening at a restaurant watching the Detroit Pistons force a game seven on Sunday against the Cleveland Cavaliers all the while text messaging my sister for updates on the Tigers since she could flip between back in Detroit. As I lamented the early deficit the Tigers found themselves in to my sister, she told me I had to choose between the Pistons winning a do-or-die game or allowing the Tigers to extend their streak to eight. I sacrificed the opener in the Interleague series to push the Cavs series to the hilt. Sorry everyone! The Pistons held on 84-82 and come back to Detroit for the series finale. I am a loyal fan of all the Detroit teams in all four major sports, with the Tigers and Lions pulling rank ahead of the Pistons and Red Wings, but tonight was the season for the Pistons so I had pull them through.

Back to the Tigers and sadly, the streak was bound to end. It is very nice to put these stretches together, but they cannot last forever. The Reds are considered Detroit’s geographical rival for Interleague play and thus they are matched up frequently. In four season series since Interleague play began in 1997, the Tigers have split with the Reds at six games apiece while being outscored 57-53. This season’s series is the first that actually holds any significance with each team out to the most surprising start in their respective leagues. Detroit, after today’s loss, are tied for the best record in baseball at 27-14, while Cincinnati is two games back of the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central at 25-17.

Starter Jeremy Bonderman last just three innings allowing seven runs on six hits and three walks while striking out only three. Contrary to his career-trend, Bonderman has found himself in trouble during the middle innings while plowing through the first three with relative ease (as compared against his career numbers) in 2006. Tonight, he had a mix of his past with the present allowing two runs in the 2nd and six in the 4th. This season, pitches 46-60 have been Bonderman’s tightest spot. Prior to tonight, he has allowed hitters a .313/.389/.375 line during those pitches and that was no doubt worsened as he lasted just 66 pitches against the Reds. The jams he was constantly putting himself in during those pitches finally caught up to him tonight. He had only allowed two runs despite that line while allowing 14 runs on pitches 1-45, but the Reds punished him for putting runners on this time around.

Placido Polanco‘s bat is coming alive of late with nine hits in the last six games as he teamed with Ivan Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez to go 7-for-14, but it was not enough. Leadoff man Curtis Granderson was kept off base in five tries and Carlos Guillen and Brandon Inge were each saddled with 0-for-4 nights leaving on four base runners apiece. Marcus Thames rapped his 6th home run in 53 at-bats giving him one per 8.8 at-bats and one per 9.7 plate appearances. With Dmitri Young‘s hitting woes and now potential off-the-field problems, Thames could a pile of well deserved at-bats in the coming weeks. I’d rather see better circumstances under which Thames would get time, but it is a silver lining to the situation.

Roman Colon failed to offer substantial long relief in Bonderman’s short outing as the team continues to search for that effective mop-up guy. Colon put on six in three and two-thirds allowing two runs and striking out three. It was only his second outing of the season, so he is likely to get a few more shots at being that guy, but tonight he was not able to squelch the fire started by Bonderman. He allowed 2.2 HR/9 last year in 69 1/3 innings between Atlanta and Detroit last year, and picked up where he left off tonight giving up Adam Dunn‘s 14th home run of the season.

Tomorrow, Mike Maroth (5-2, 2.18 ERA, 1.2 K:BB) is scheduled to face Eric Milton (2-1, 6.50 ERA, 2.6 K:BB) with first pitch set for 7:05 PM Eastern at Comerica Park. With a Pistons off-day, I’ll have all my force behind a Tigers victory and on Sunday, I think the Pistons can pull through on their own, but I might have to split the love between the two.

DE-TROIT BASKET-BALL!

Though they are becoming more and more scarce, you can find some critics that are simply waiting for the shoe to drop with regards to the Tigers. As a team out of nowhere jumping out to an amazing start that has netted them a tie for the best record in baseball, I can understand some skepticism. That said, the Tigers have shown time and again in the early season that they aren’t simply using smoke and mirrors to overpower teams. Great starting pitching, powerful and timely hitting, and easily one of the league’s best bullpens have made the Tigers a legitimate threat in the American League Central. Tonight, they faced one of their stiffest tests in Minnesota’s Johan Santana. I have gone on record saying that he is baseball’s best starting pitcher. I stand by that assertion and he showed it tonight.

Rookie hurler Justin Verlander stood toe-to-toe with Santana and didn’t flinch all game. Santana took the strikeout battle 12-0, but Verlander found ways to get outs with 11 on groundballs, 12 on flies. He scattered six hits over eight innings before turning it over to closer Todd Jones. Santana, meanwhile, also went eight innings and walked just one with his 12 strikeouts. The walk came right before his fatal mistake, a fastball that Vance Wilson sent over the left field fence for a 2-run home run. That would be the difference as the Tigers won 2-0 for their 6th straight win and 26th overall.

Verlander is a fireballer in the vein of his counterpart today, but for him to be able to deliver eight strong without striking out any hitters goes a long way towards showing how much he has matured in just 39 games this season. Jones locked down his 11th save in 12 tries as the main component of the two-headed closer with Fernando Rodney.

In addition to Wilson’s game-winning home run, Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez were the only other hitters to get to Santana tonight. Coming into the series, the Tigers fans were aiming for 2 of 3, all but conceding the game against Santana. Tough to fault the notion.

Coming into tonight, Santana was working on four straight wins in which he pitched 29 innings allowing seven earned runs (2.17 ERA) and 25 baserunners (0.86) and striking out 40 batters. Tonight was just a microcosm of the struggles Santana can expect to face with the Twins lineup behind him. If he does not shutout the opposition, wins will not come easy for him.

The Tigers get Brad Radke tomorrow afternoon, whom they pasted in one outing on April 28th. Radke lasted just two and one-thirds innings giving up six runs on nine hits, including two home runs. For Detroit, Kenny Rogers (6-2, 3.23 ERA, 2.1 K:BB) aims for his fourth straight win.

A great Mother's Day weekend has been extended as I decided to stick around with the family for a few more days. That said, I still wanted to jump on and drop a few notes. I was very pleased to see the Detroit Tigers sweep the Cleveland Indians. As the Detroit Tigers Weblog breaks down, it wasn't the prettiest of series sweeps, but the Tigers took care of business nonetheless. Meanwhile, the Detroit Free Press points out how the little plays, particularly a fielding effort by Vance Wilson, were instrumental to the dismantling of the Tribe.

Another key has to be how the Tigers were able to shutout catcher Victor Martinez, holding him to an 0-for-12 weekend. Only Milwaukee's Damian Miller has a higher VORP for catchers in all of baseball. Martinez has been one of the best hitters in all of baseball so far this season hitting .319/.378/.504.

One point of contention by DTW was that the Tigers might be the benefactors of some luck regarding when they are playing teams. Here is what they said:

They faced the Rangers without their best pitchers, they faced the Twins when they were struggling, they faced the Athletics when they weren’t hitting, and they faced the Indians when nothing was going right for them.

Let me make it clear that I am not trying to slam DTW under any circumstance. I love the site and read it daily. That said, I cannot agree with the idea that the Tigers are simply catching teams at the right time. The Rangers did have their best pitchers against the Tigers, the Twins have been struggling all year long, not just when they face the Tigers, and the A's are hitting .243 (13th in AL)/.327 (10th)/.408 (9th) meaning they have not hit anyone as opposed to the Tigers catching them in a slump.

Against the Rangers, R.A. Dickey was the only weak pitcher faced. The Tigers rocked John Koronka and Kevin Millwood, but that is more credit to Detroit as the Rangers consider them two of their best pitchers. Koronka has been a pleasant surprise for the Rangers and holds the 14th best VORP in the American League for pitchers. Millwood has an inflated earned run average (5.31), but he holds the team's 4th best VORP for pitchers and a ridiculously high BABIP at .346. A 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio says he's pitching better than his ERA suggests.

Five and four game winning streaks in the 2nd weeks of April and May, respectively, are the only thing keeping the Twins ahead of the Kansas City Royals for the Central cellar. Outside of the league's best pitcher, Johan Santana, the pitching staff has been absolutely brutal. Luis Castillo (.835) and Joe Mauer (.806) are the only two hitters an OPS over .800. They seem to be righting the ship at least somewhat in May as they are finally playing Michael Cuddyer and two of their best hitters, Torii Hunter and Justin Morneau, are really starting to click at the plate. That said, their four highest May ERAs belong to their non-Santana starters, Jesse Crain still hasn't gotten things on track (6.75 ERA, 1.73 WHIP) despite a giant spike in strikeouts (up to 9.35 per nine from 2.82 in 2005), and the 53 home runs allowed is third worst in all of baseball. Are the Twins struggling as they face the Tigers or does facing the Tigers cause the Twins to continue and heighten their struggles? So far this season, I believe more in the latter.

Eric Chavez and Nick Swisher have been crushing the ball so far this season for Oakland, but beyond that, the team has not been able to hit their way out of a paper bag. After Chavez and Swisher, no regular player carries an OPS above .780. With two strong pieces in their lineup, they have been able to keep themselves from the cellar of league OPS, but with 7/9ths of the lineup producing very little all season, I don't think it's fair to say that the Tigers caught them when they weren't hitting.

As a Tigers-based blog, I know that DTW is not trying to tear down what the Tigers have done so far. Rather, they are keeping things in perspective to temper expectations, which I can appreciate, but I think that the first month and a half of play is sustainable as opposed to a matter of circumstance mixed with some key performances.

The Tigers return home for six straight, including an interleague opener against another surprise team in the Cincinnati Reds this weekend. The Reds are one of the two teams allowing more home runs (Toronto being the other) than the Minnesota Twins. Being that the Twins are the other team coming into town this week, it could be bombs away at Comerica Park this week.