Baseball By Paul

Rejoice, the Tigers are winners once again! At any rate, I’ve been a mess today with a few other deadlines I’m running up against and I just checked in to drop the WPC and say that watching Joel Zumaya is pure, unadulterated fun.

Once again courtesy of FanGraphs.com:

Tomorrow, the Tigers aim to tame Erik Bedard in the rubber match. Yes, I just wanted to say “aim to tame.”

Despite a spectacular night at the plate turned in by Carlos Guillen that saw him go 2-for-2 with 3 walks and 3 runs batted in, it’s tough not to look in his direction when wondering how the Detroit Tigers lost the series opener to the Baltimore Orioles, 7-6. Fernando Rodney had a tough night out of the bullpen as well, but more on that in a second.

In the third inning, Guillen made an error on Melvin Mora grounder that extended the inning and gave Miguel Tejada a chance that he cashed in for a 2-run homer. It wasn’t the simplest of balls to field, but Guillen looked like he was rushing to make the play and after the ball popped out on the glove-to-hand exchange, he had a hurried throw to Pudge Rodriguez, playing first for the first time in his career. I mention Rodriguez’s first base debut matter of factly, not to implicate him.

Shortly after his bases clearing double in Tigers half of the 5th, Guillen inexplicably decided to attempt a steal of third base with one out and Dmitri Young at the dish. It seems any out you make at third, be it trying to stretch a double or attempting a steal, is highly admonished. What’s worse, is that after Young finished the at-bat with a walk, Daniel Cabrera‘s 7th of the game, Craig Monroe struck out and ended the inning. The Tigers had Cabrera on the ropes and were taking full advantage of his control problems I mentioned yesterday:

They head to Baltimore for a three-game set facing Daniel Cabrera in the opener. They need to exhibit more patience than they have so far and it will be rewarded by the control-leary Cabrera (25 walks in 32.1 IP).

Guillen’s rough night wasn’t done there. In the bottom of the 8th, he fumbled a routine grounder off the bat of Chris Gomez, again extending the inning, and the Orioles were able to cash in. Mora’s base hit scored pinch-runner Luis Terrero to seal the deal and cost the Tigers another ballgame they clearly should have won.

As a free-swinging team, I was worried that maybe the team wouldn’t let Cabrera hang himself with his control problems, but they were splendidly patient at the dish. Cabrera went five, and as I mentioned, walked seven. He also allowed five hits and five runs. Magglio Ordonez homered in the 7th off of Todd Williams for his 10th of the season.

In regular jinx-like fashion, as soon as The Detroit Tigers Weblog posts this about some media praise for the Tigers, including this nugget from Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan:

The key for the Tigers staff has been eliminating home runs. They’ve allowed just 22 in 30 games, second only to the Yankees for fewest bombs allowed, a figure that has helped them to the second-lowest slugging allowed in MLB.

Nate Robertson and Rodney go out and allow four bombs! Robertson was having Cabrera-like control issues with five walks of his own, and he was good enough to win tonight, but the Guillen error was a big blow. Rodney just had an off night and while as much as I hate to say it, he was due. And even he was good enough to get out of the jams, but his Guillen error did him in, too.

Back at it tomorrow evening with another struggling starting pitcher in Rodrigo Lopez. Justin Verlander toes the rubber for Tigers looking for his 4th win. I’ll post the WPC from FanGraphs.com once it becomes available. I’m sure it is all over the place with five ties & lead changes.

As promised:

Random Note:
– Delmon Young received a 50-game suspension for his bat throwing incident, which I’m content with. I wouldn’t have minded more, but 50 is pretty good.

The season is just 32 games young, or rather 20% completed, and there has been plenty to love about the start of the Detroit Tigers. First off, though their home run hitting ability gets most of the press, it has been their superior starting pitching that has powered the team early on. Of course, I say that on the heels of dropping two of three to the Minnesota Twins. Jeremy Bonderman was knocked around a bit, Todd Jones blew his first save, and despite the best efforts of Mike Maroth, he ran into Johan Santana, who carried a no-hitter into the 7th inning. Nevertheless, things are looking great for the Tigers. I put together their numbers for the whole season based on the first 32 games. The offense:

Initially, I’m pleased with just how well Magglio Ordonez has been playing despite the fact that he’s not walking very much. If he is able to hold pace and play 152 games while hitting 40+ HRs, this team is going to be very successful. A few things that I don’t see happening at all include Chris Shelton‘s triple and home run totals being sustained. For Craig Monroe to come anywhere near 40 home runs, he’ll need to greatly improve his patience at the plate and take some walks. Curtis Granderson‘s pace for 96 walks is very pleasing. He is progressing nicely and the Tigers have to be thrilled with their leadoff man. I’m not at all concerned that Granderson is only on pace for 15 steals, moreso miffed that it is just a 60% success rate. If Carlos Guillen can play every game, that’d just be amazing. A 20-20 season would be icing on the cake. Brandon Inge will not hit 35 home runs, but Marcus Thames could if he finds some at-bats. Sooner or later, if Monroe continues to struggle, Jim Leyland will have to consider giving Thames more time at Monroe’s expense.

Now for the pitching:

Kenny Rogers almost certainly won’t win 25 games, but he has been a great addition to the Tigers despite all the griping (from myself included) about his large contract. There is just no way that a bullpen will only be responsible for 15 decisions in a season, the wins and losses paces of individual pitchers is a tad ridiculous. I wish Mike Maroth would win 20, though, he deserves it. The strikeout paces of most of the bullpen are very encouraging. Rodney, Seay, Walker, & Zumaya are on pace for excellent strikeout-to-walk ratios… especially Walker as he has yet to walk a batter.

I’ll update these paces several times throughout the season as they will start to even out, undoubtedly. Right now, the Tigers need to rebound from a tough series in which the Twins really came to play. They head to Baltimore for a three-game set facing Daniel Cabrera in the opener. They need to exhibit more patience than they have so far and it will be rewarded by the control-leary Cabrera (25 walks in 32.1 IP).

Given the early season success the Tigers have enjoyed, it’s hard to complain about losses because they are going to happen from time to time, but this one was bad. Not only did they allow a pitcher (Kevin Gregg) making his first start of the season to look great, but the staff allowed at least one hit to each batter in an atrocious lineup.

Essentially four rookies (Kotchman played 85 games prior to ’06) at the bottom of the order going 5-for-15 with two home runs (Kotchman and Napoli) and four runs batted in. Two of the rookies were called up that day! Meanwhile Gregg, Brendan Donnelly, and Francisco Rodriguez hold the Tigers to four hits and two runs. The Win Probability Chart from Fangraphs.com shows that things looked doomed from the start on Thursday:

I’m not going to throw out everything the Tigers have accomplished to this point and suggest they’ve been frauds in their hot start. I just don’t like “losing the ones you shouldn’t.” It is like losing to the Kansas City Royals. You know it can happen, it just shouldn’t! Maybe I’m just bummed that this was Justin Verlander‘s first start for my fantasy team since I acquired him and he got touched up. The team is off to Minnesota to start a nine-game roadie.

Tonight:
Detroit – Kenny Rogers (4-2, 2.59)
Minnesota – Kyle Lohse (1-2, 8.77)

Jeff Weaver threw 74 of his 113 pitches for strikes tonight, including a fat one to Brandon Inge that was sent over the fence to tie the game. On several occassions, Weaver was visibly upset with home plate umpire “Country” Joe West. West, in Weaver’s mind, was squeezing too tight of a zone and not calling several pitches on the black. Shortly after one such incident, he made his mistake pitch and Inge made him pay. Weaver stayed strong, however, because despite allowing a triple to the very next batter, Ramon Santiago, he got out of the jam and held the game at 1-1.

Fast forward to the eighth inning. Once again Inge caused troubled, drawing a walk off of Weaver right after a Craig Monroe strikeout. Then, on a groundball to second, Inge managed to avoid being put out on the fielder’s choice giving the Tigers 1st and 2nd with two outs. Two outs haven’t bothered the Tigers in their homestand at all and Alexis Gomez delivered a single to score Inge for the go-ahead and eventual winning run in Wednesday’s 2-1 win.

Starter Nate Robertson, who left with a no-decision, struck out six, walked two, and allowed four hits with his lone blemish coming in the first inning on a Vladimir Guerrero sac fly. Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney teamed to close the door and extend the Tigers’ winning streak to six games. According to mlb.com, “The Tigers have allowed just five runs over their last six games, tied for the best streak in franchise history and last accomplished in July 1986.”

In 71 innings of work, the bullpen has struck out 51 while walking 25. They have collected a 1.06 WHIP and allowed With Todd Jones returning, the Tigers have a powerful two-closer combo with he and Rodney. Jones, Rodney, and Zumaya all rank in the top 25 for relievers in Baseball Prospectus’ Expected Wins (WX). Jamie Walker ranks 26th.

In tomorrow’s getaway day, Justin Verlander (3-2, 3.52) squares off against Kevin Gregg (1-0, 0.84), who is making his first start of the season. The team then heads out on a nine-game road trip visiting Minnesota, Baltimore, and Cleveland.

The Win Probability Graph from FanGraphs.com