Archive for January 17th, 2013

Thursday: 01.17.2013

Baseball Prospectus Work

My latest piece at BP went up covering three more pitchers in the Keeper Reaper series. Today’s theme was converted relievers and included Chris Sale, Lance Lynn, and Jeff Samardzija. The fantasy team has been doing the KR series across all positions this off-season. If you’re unfamiliar, it’s a series where we discuss the guys who are tough keeper choices depending on league size. You don’t need help on how keeper-worthy Justin Verlander is regardless of league size, but someone like Brandon Morrow is a tougher decision. The league sizes covered are shallow (30 keepers), ,medium (60), deep (90), AL/NL only (60), and super-deep (200). Obviously we assume it’s straight keeper without round and dollar values otherwise it’d be impossible to answer on just about anyone. All of a sudden a $42 Verlander isn’t such a no-brainer. But your league simply keeps five apiece across 12 teams, we can tell you how we feel about players.

Here’s a taste of the Sale entry:

Of course, it wasn’t all roses and rubies (new phrase, use it!); his mechanics are so wretched that they will make your arm hurt worse than Hawk Harrelson makes your ears hurt when watching a game, and he came back down to earth in July through the rest of the year. His 3.6 K/BB wasn’t too far from the first half’s 3.9 mark, and his 9.5 K/9 topped his 8.5 from the first half. His ERA, however, ballooned from 2.19 to 4.03 and his WHIP from 0.96 to 1.34. The worst part was his home run rate exploding from 0.4 to 1.4. Righties obliterated his fastball to the tune of a 1077 OPS in the second half after he kept it at 685 through the first half.

Read the entire piece here.

In my Keeper Reaper entries, I’ve covered:

-Kris Medlen, Roy Halladay,and Morrow

-Wade Miley, Matt Moore, and Jarrod Parker

-Zack Greinke, Yu Darvish, and Aroldis Chapman

-Chris SaleLance Lynn, and Jeff Samardzija

If you’re not subscribed to Baseball Prospectus, you can do so here.

Additionally, Jason Collette and I will be recording our podcast tonight with guest Todd Zola of Mastersball and we will be talking a lot about player valuation methodology.