Baseball by Paul 6/16/10 Show Notes

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland A’s

Today’s TtW focuses on Cahill of the Oakland A’s. Though he wasn’t great last night against the Cubs, giving up 4 in 5.2 innings, his ERA for the season is still just 3.23 and he ran his record to 6-2 with the win. More importantly, he struck out 5 while walking just 2. Strikeouts have been an issue with Cahill early on in his career, but he’s got 17 in 19.2 June innings which is a 7.0 rate and much better than his 5.1 season mark.

If he can continue to strike out guys at a 7 per 9 rate, then he can be a huge asset this year. In the meantime, he’s a big time talent who plays in a very favorable home park and only twice this year has he given up more than 3 runs in a start. I also really like him for rebuilding teams with an eye toward 2011 as I think he will really come into his own next year while being a bit inconsistent throughout the rest of this year.

Articles of the Day

Featured Piece: Joe Sheehan Newsletter

You may know Sheehan from his work at Baseball Prospectus or the latter of which he still does, but his mostly daily newsletter is a tremendous read. I can’t recommend it enough. It is well worth the $20 for the season. Here is an excerpt from Monday’s piece:

You can’t blame Kenny Williams for that kind of failure. Ramirez was never going to be a star, but he’s played better than this, and the other two players are well off anyone’s projections for them. Williams’ brutal offseason is a reason why the Sox have disappointed, though, as he spent his time bringing in or retaining players who have failed to add anything to the offense. Juan Pierre has a .316 OBP that is just killing the the leadoff slot. When he broke his finger, Mark Teahen was hitting .255/.340/.387, good for this team, bad for an corner player in the AL. Mark Kotsay, who hasn’t been useful in years, was signed to be a platoon DH. He’s at .202/.299/.364. Jones is the big win, with his .211/.328/.469 line, and even that’s inflated. Jones is hitting under .200 with a sub-.700 OPS since April. Williams, who got most of his attention for declining to retain Jermaine Dye, deserves more criticism for what he did than for what he didn’t do. He identified the wrong solutions to the Sox’ offensive problems.

It’s OK to Believe the Strasburg Hype – by Grant Paulsen

Let Tuesday Roll – by Ray Flowers

Review of the Bloomberg Sports iPhone App – by Josh Fliegel

DeJesus to be a Major Part of Royals Deadline Dealing – by Bob Dutton

The Gamble of Alex Rios is Paying Off Nicely – by Mark Gonzales

Bet of the Day

Today’s play is Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox -1.5 against Rodrigo Lopez and the D’Backs. Lester’s moneyline is -260, but that gets sliced in half to -130 if you lay the runs. I think it’s worth at as Lester will look to bounce back in a big way after getting knocked around in Cleveland his last time out.

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 at -130
Record: 1-2

Thursday Spot Starts

Luke Hochevar v. Houston – You can pick on Houston with just about any decent starter. And that’s exactly what Hochevar is, decent. He’s got six really good starts, some average ones and three implosions. Houston seems like a perfect opportunity to grab his 7th really good start.

R.A. Dickey v. Cleveland – Speaking of teams to pick on, Cleveland is an ideal candidate with their decimated team. Dickey may seem like a fluke because he come out of nowhere to go 4-0 in his first five starts, but with a 6.7 K/9, 2.4 K/BB and .329 BABIP supporting him, he’s not due for a major implosion. The LOB% of 83% will come down and the 6.3 HR/9 will see a correction as well, but that won’t take him from viable to starter to irrelevant waiver wire fodder. He’s much closer to a 3.78 ERA pitcher than the 2.78 he has right now, but that’s still pretty worthwhile.

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