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Monday: 12.1.2014

2015 Starting Pitching Guide Pre-Order Sale

We are back again! The 2015 Starting Pitching Guide is already in the works and is now available for pre-order. You can order below via PayPal and pay just $30 for the most comprehensive pitching guide available. If you had the 2014 guide, you got over 123,000 words covering 384 pitches across the league in great detail. The following was included in the 2014 guide:

  • A glowing look at Corey Kluber that pointed to a big breakout: “Kluber is one of my favorite breakout picks for 2014 with a low-3.00s ERA over 190-plus innings as an upside.” He won the AL Cy Young. He is the greatest human alive. 
  • A continually bearish outlook (dating back about 27 years) on Clay Buchholz: “The health piece remains uncertain. Actually at this point it seems certain… certain that he won’t make it through a full season.” He pitched 170 IP … and bad ones at that.
  • An endorsement of Alex Cobb’s 2013 (2.76 ERA/1.15 WHIP) to buy-in again for 2014: “Cobb is one of the best young arms in the game and yet one of the most underrated ones at the same time.” He had a 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in a career-high 166.3 IP.
  • A very eager outlook on Marcus Stroman: “At the risk of being over-influenced by a handful of live performances, I’m really excited about Stroman’s future. [The profile also included the recommendation to take him in deep leagues and in minor league drafts].” He had a 130.7 IP of 3.65 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
  • A full recommendation of Jose Quintana after his 2013: “There is no reason not to buy in on the improvements. They are built on a skill change (fastball command) and none of his metrics were obscenely out of line in 2013. A .283 BABIP, 76.6 percent LOB rate, and 10.2 percent HR/FB rate are all within reason compared to league average and the marks he showed in 2012. He could lose command of the fastball, but there are no indicators suggesting that would happen.” He dropped another 200 IP and improved his ERA (3.51 to 3.32) with only slight WHIP deterioration (1.22 to 1.24).
  • A cautious outlook on Danny Salazar: “I’m willing to allow a scenario where he improves his fastball command significantly, his 13.7 percent HR/FB rate dips, and he cuts into the homer rate, but his early mock draft price (10th round in NFBC) requires that he do that to earn his keep. He’s going ahead of guys like Andrew Cashner, Doug Fister, and Jon Lester among others and I simply can’t put that kind of faith in 50-odd innings.” He logged just 110 IP with a 4.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP with a 1.8 HR/9 in the eight starts before his demotion.

 

  • A sleeper designation for Carlos Carrasco: “He has real stuff, but he’s never quite put it together despite showing flashes. If this velocity uptick is real and he can command it while also getting his secondary pitches back on track (OPS-against from 2009-2010 CH: .692, CU: .634, and SL: .443), then we could see something noteworthy. I’m keeping an eye on him, he is still just 27 years old.” He had an insane season, posting a 2.55 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 134 IP between the bullpen and rotation including a 1.30 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in his final 10 starts.
  • A complete buy-in of Max Scherzer: “His transformation into one of the game’s most dominant strikeout forces can pad the fall if his ERA ticks back up over 3.00, but there is no reason to be shy about trusting him as a bona fide ace.” His ERA was still very good at 3.15 and he did it with 252 strikeouts (third in baseball).
  • A strong projection for Rick Porcello: “I’ve been talking about Porcello’s star potential for years and we should start to see it push through in 2014 with his first 190-inning, sub-4.00 ERA season.” He had a 3.43 ERA in 204.7 IP.
  • A rosy profile on Phil Hughes: “Hughes is a great bargain bin investment for 2014. He is unlikely to cost you anything substantial in any format and yet I think he will pay handsome dividends. You can probably stream him in your 10-12 team mixed league since the rosters won’t run deep enough to make him viable (and then if he really takes off, roster him permanently), but deep mixed and AL-only leagues should be targeting the 28 year old righty as a late-round, low-dollar steal.” He had a career year with a 3.52 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 11.6 K:BB ratio in 209.7 IP.
  • A modest and conditional endorsement of Dallas Keuchel: “A 4.25 FIP points to some upside. Home runs have been a factor in both seasons. His HR/FB rates have been exceedingly high at 15.9 and 17.4 percent and it’s not unreasonable to expect regression, but with his heavy groundball tendencies, the egregious rates suggest that when he misses, he does so horribly. He can be safely ignored at the draft table in all formats, but a decent strikeout rate and elite groundball rate are enough to monitor him to see if he can improve the gopheritis.” He not only curbed the gopheritis, he made home runs remarkably scarce en route to a huge season – 2.93 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 200 IP.
  • A suggestion to buy back in on Jered Weaver after two sub-200 IP seasons: “He isn’t a fantasy ace because of the low strikeouts, but he is actually going for a good price in many winter mocks so don’t hesitate to jump in if he’s your second, or better yet, your third arm. The great ratios are still very helpful especially if he gets back to the 200-inning level, which is likely since his injuries shouldn’t be long-term problems.” He had a perfectly useful 3.59 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 213.3 IP.
  • A call to finally give up on Brett Anderson’s health even though he has major talent: “By now we are all aware of what he can do at his best, but there are serious questions about whether or not he will be at his best and even if he is, how long will it last? Let some else deal with the headache.” He had a 2.91 ERA, but in just 43.3 IP.
  • A push to take Clayton Kershaw in the mid-first round (feels like a no-brainer now, but it wasn’t last winter): “Once you get past the first five picks this season, don’t be afraid to do something daring… like taking the best, most consistent pitcher in the game.” He won the Cy Young and MVP, finishing second on ESPN’s Player Rater.
  • A firm late-round recommendation for Tyson Ross: “I’m on board with Ross. He costs nothing and makes a great late pick in any NL-only format and even most mixed formats (probably need a deep reserve roster to start looking at him in a 10-team mixer and any kind of reserve roster before 12-team mixer consideration). If you do play in those more common mixed formats, just keep him on your watch list as either a stream option or someone who can play his way into all-leagues viability.” He had a 2.81 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 195.7 IP.
  • A tempered outlook on Ian Kennedy: “Petco alone can’t fix everything for Kennedy. He must improve on the road or it looks like he will just end up as an average commodity (and perhaps worse if he isn’t near-perfect at home). I’m certainly happier about a full season in his new home, but I wouldn’t get too crazy with expectations. He’s going late enough to earn a profit, but I still prefer guys like the aforementioned Porcello as well as Kluber and Jon Niese, all of whom are going after him.” He had a 3.63 ERA in 201 IP, but oddly he was worse at home (3.93 to 3.32).
  • A pass on Tim Lincecum: “I’m left torn. It is obvious that Lincecum still has gobs of talent left, so another Cy Young-caliber season wouldn’t really surprise anyone, but continuing to invest – even at a markedly depressed price from Vintage Lincecum – is tough because there will almost certainly be a handful of more or at least equally intriguing arms in that range or available quite a bit later. It’s a pass for me, but I understand those who still want to take a shot.” He put up a 4.74 ERA in 155.7 IP while his strikeout rate continued to plummet.
  • A breakout call for Jeff Samardzija: “Perhaps because he’s already 29, it’s hard to remember sometimes that this was just his second season in the starting rotation, but there is a ton of talent in this profile and he has a breakout season coming sooner rather than later. Continue targeting him, especially after a season that will depress his cost at the draft table.” He posted a 2.99 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in a career-high 219.7 IP with Chicago and Oakland.
  • A positive outlook on Jason Hammel as a Cub: “This is a solid low-risk move by the Cubs that could really pay off. If he finds that 2012 level again, he could be flipped later in the season for more prospect reinforcements or he is realistically young enough that if he really got going, they could look to extend him as someone to tide them over as they wait for their wave of young talent. Keep an eye on him.” He had a career year with Chicago and Oakland, putting up a 3.47 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 176.3 IP.
  • An endorsement for Francisco Liriano: “His injury last year was a freak accident broken forearm, but he’s stayed healthy in-season for each of the last two seasons. There is enough alluring potential here with the strikeouts and excellent rate stats that you can afford to take the risk. If 2011-2012 Liriano resurfaces, you can cut bait sooner than you normally would with a pitcher and sustain minimal damage. I’m buying.” It took him a while to come around, but he had a 3.38 ERA in 162.3 IP which almost constitutes a healthy season for the oft-injured Liriano.
  • A reality check on Shelby Miller’s ERA: “Looking forward I think his ERA indicators point to the level we should be looking at for a 2014 expectation. He had a 3.67 FIP, 3.68 SIERA, and 3.73 xFIP.” He had a 3.74 ERA in 2014 and he was lucky to get that. Additionally, his strikeout rate disintegrated from 23.4 to 16.6 percent.
  • A bullish outlook for Julio Teheran: “Lots to like here, I’m definitely investing – especially long-term. (I also made him my preseason NL Cy Young pick).” He didn’t win the Cy, but he had a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 221 IP.
  • A close projection for Zack Wheeler: “We could also actually see a rise in ERA, but overall better season with the WHIP dropping significantly – think something like a 3.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 185 innings with 160 strikeouts. That would be a perfectly useful sophomore campaign and when you factor in the upside for so much more, he becomes a very desirable asset.” He didn’t lower the WHIP much (1.33), but he had a 3.54 ERA and 187 Ks in 185.3 IP so his overall line was very similar to the value of the projected numbers.
  • A call to put Jacob deGrom on your radar: “He’s someone you should be familiar with if (and probably when) he gets called up. There won’t be a rush to roster him upon arrival, so you can afford to wait and see a bit.” He won the NL Rookie of the Year which I never saw coming, but if you read the guide, he was on your radar so you were ready to pounce quicker than your leaguemates.
  • An unconditional endorsement of Cole Hamels even after his down-ish 2013: “He’s also maintained remarkably stable strikeout, walk, and swinging strike rates, too. Unfortunately, he has dealt with the vagaries of win totals. He won 10 games on a World Series runner-up in 2009 and then 17 on an 81-81 club in 2012. He had 1161.3 innings of 3.39 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in six seasons from 2006-2011 and hadn’t broken the 15-win plateau. High ceiling, high floor, awesome pitcher. Buy so hard.” He only logged a 9-9 record, but did so with a 46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 204.7 IP.
  • A lot of love for Doug Fister: “I think Fister is due for a huge season and it’s going to make the returns that Detroit got back look even worse than they did at the consummation of the trade. In a lot of drafts, he’s falling outside of the top 40 starters, offering tremendous value. Buy in bulk!” He only lasted 164 IP because of injury, but he put up a 2.41 ERA and 1.08 WHIP during his time.

And much, much more! Of course they weren’t all hits as those of you who joined me on the Nathan Eovaldi train know. Doug Thorburn’s excellent mechanics report cards will be back yet again and he is planning to once again up the volume after doing over 200 players last year.

Whether you are a hardcore fantasy gamer (season-long or DFS), a baseball handicapper, or just a fan of the game, this guide is for you. The breadth and width of knowledge about pitchers in this guide will enhance your baseball experience regardless of how you choose to enjoy the great game.

The guide will be released in early-February again this year.

Order now for just $20 and save $10 off of the regular price. This Cyber Monday pre-order deal won’t last long so jump on it now!!

12/6 Update: The Cyber Monday deal has expired and the SPG will be at regular price of $30 on the link below. 

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Also, if you pre-order the 2015 and you didn’t get the 2014 guide, but want to peruse it then just email me at thespguide@gmail.com and I’ll send you a copy.

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Posted in 2015 Fantasy Guide, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | 2 Comments »

Tuesday: 01.28.2014

2014 SP Guide Sample: Drew Smyly

Doug and I will be sharing a handful of samples over the next couple of weeks to give you an idea of what you can expect in the 2014 SP Guide. We have selected a diverse group across both leagues for the samples ranging from established aces to promising on-the-rise arms. We start with one from the latter end in Detroit’s Drew Smyly, a popular sleeper as he prepares for his first full season as a starter. The mechanics report card denotes the split between mine and Doug’s writing. Everything above the card was written by me, the card and text are Doug’s. If you have questions, comments, or funny jokes you can either comment here or reach us on Twitter @sporer and @doug_thorburn. Details on how to order the guide are included at the end of the piece. 

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I feel like the Drew Smyly v. Rick Porcello battle in Spring Training was more of a media creation that the Tigers didn’t go out of their way to downplay than a true competition. I think the job was Porcello’s almost regardless of what happened in their Spring Training outings, but they went toe-to-toe with six strong starts apiece. If it was a competition, it’s fair to say Porcello won with a 3.00 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 21 strikeouts, and zero walks in 24 innings. Smyly had a perfectly respectable 3.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 17 strikeouts, and three walks in his 21.3 innings, but Porcello was sharper.

The end result had the Smyly fans pining for him to get a shot, though it was mostly in vain since they knew it would require an injury to Detroit’s excellent rotation. Smyly was great as a reliever for the Tigers even though they foolishly turned him into a LOOGY for the final two months and the playoffs.

smyly-2013

I’m not suggesting that the change in role is responsible for the plummet in results; I’m just showing how he performed in the two splits. Not only was it silly to cut his workload from a value standpoint, but it also kept him from logging 90-plus innings as he did in 2012 which would’ve left him better equipped for a full season in the rotation. His pace after four months was 91.7 innings which wouldn’t have been too far from his 121 from 2012 (with minors and playoffs included) considering the fact that it all came in the bullpen.

Speaking of his 2012 work, the large majority was spent as a starter, the results of which have no doubt fueled the excitement for a full year of him in the rotation. In 18 starts he had a 3.79 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 22.3 percent strikeout rate, and 3.4 K/BB ratio over 95 innings. The biggest concern with him in the rotation full-time is his underdeveloped changeup. It hasn’t prevented him from stopping righties, but he’s straddling the line of average against them.

In 2012, his 749 OPS against righties bested the 758 league average just barely, while his 699 in 2013 comfortably beat the 724 league average. OK, “comfortably” is overstating it, but his 27 percent strikeout rate and 6.3 percent walk rate against them suggests he clearly didn’t struggle. As a starter, those rates were at 19.2 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively. The changeup usage went from 8.1 percent in 2012 to just 2.4 percent last year while the slider more than picked up the slack.

His slider usage against righties jumped from 12 percent to 24.6 percent with the results improving significantly, too. His OPS-against on the pitch went from 659 to 546 with the strikeout rate jumping from 32.4 to 41.5 percent in 34 and 53 PA, respectively. His primary strategy in 2013 was to work the fastball away and then bury his curveball and slider inside on righties.

 smyly-vRHB

He has the stuff to be one of the best fifth starters in the league and if either the changeup develops or his pair of breaking pitches continues to neutralize righties, he can easily be a strong fourth starter-type, but I think there is an expectation that he will be a fringe three starter out of the gate and I’m far less certain of that outcome. Let’s just say that Smyly is going ahead of Porcello in a lot of leagues and I find that be insane – a comment meant to pump Porcello more than to tear down Smyly, but pump the brakes on expectations for the young lefty.

reportcard-smyly

Smyly’s delivery does not inspire confidence that he can hold up in the starting rotation, both in terms of withstanding the workload and fooling batters multiple times through the order. His balance wavers throughout the motion, starting with a forward lean during the stride phase before he veers in the opposite direction as he approaches. The end result is a very unstable position at release point, tilting to the glove side while the back foot comes off the ground prematurely, often leaving Smyly as a one-legged pitcher with a shallow release who is on the verge of keeling overboard.

smyly-dt

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The guide’s release date is the earliest ever, coming out over a month earlier than the 2013 iteration.

The guide will be released on February 5th 12th!

(Guide delayed a week)

There are a couple different options available to you this year:

Check out Paint The Black!!

Posted in 2014 Fantasy Guide, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | 2 Comments »

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Monday: 08.5.2013

Jim Johnson’s “Regression” Is 5 Bad Innings

When Jim Johnson had his dream season in 2012 – complete with an MLB-best 51 saves – many in the fantasy community screamed “REGRESSION!!” at the top of their lungs. The biggest hurdle for most (I believe) was getting their heads around a low-strikeout reliever being a dominant closer. Johnson’s next 20 percent strikeout rate will be his first and that’s not even special for a reliever let alone a primetime closer. Relievers have averaged a 22 percent rate in each of the last two seasons with the best sitting in the 30s (well the absolute best like Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman post absurd 45-50% rates).

What didn’t make sense about the cries for regression was the seemingly forgotten or overlooked fact that Johnson threw 91 innings at his 2012 levels the year before with all of his key indicators being nearly equal:

jjohnson1112

Now his ERA indicators were calling for a jump with FIPs of 3.22 and 3.25, but that is hardly egregious. In short, this GB-heavy approach wasn’t a fluke.

Essentially two-thirds through the 2013 season has yielded some interesting results for Johnson as those thinking it couldn’t last might feel justified by his 3.26 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. But are the Johnson naysayers really “right” if the entire “regression” came in about a two-week, five-inning stretch from mid-to-late May? While Johnson’s ERA is more than three-quarters of a run higher than in 2012, you can make a case that he’s actually been better save a 10 percent portion of his season. To wit:

 jjohnsongoodbad

I realize this is some gaming with selective endpoints, but when four of the nine outings during which he allowed earned runs are clustered in about a two-week sample, I don’t think it’s egregious to show the before and after on each side. At its core, this is less about Johnson and more about just how skewed reliever numbers can be given their relatively small innings totals.

If you just lifted those five innings from Johnson’s totals, his numbers are through-the-roof brilliant. We can’t do that, but look at those numbers since he emerged out of his funk; they are quite excellent, too. In that particular sample, his groundball rate is at 66 percent – even better than the astronomical 62 percent rates from the last two years. By the way, he is once again leading baseball in saves with 38 and he’s actually outpacing his 2012 total. His pace of 55 would tie him for the third-most in baseball ever and the most since Eric Gagne hit the mark in 2003.

Always dig into a reliever’s numbers as the front page of their Baseball-Reference profile will often mislead you.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Relievers, Statistical Analysis | 2 Comments »

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Saturday: 05.4.2013

Jeremy Guthrie’s New “Success”

Jeremy Guthrie has a 3.06 ERA through five starts which looks like a continuation of his post-trade work with the Royals from last season when he had a 3.16 ERA in 91 innings over 14 starts. All told, he had a 3.14 ERA in 123 2/3 innings with 1.10 WHIP. He is blasting the zone resulting in a minuscule 5.8 percent walk rate – a marked improvement over his 6.9 percent career rate. His strikeout rate is at 16 percent as a Royal, up from a 14.3 career mark. Everything seems to suggest he has found a new level of production in his early-30s with his new club.

That strikes me as odd, though.

You don’t usually see a guy with 1111 innings of a certain level of production become something significantly better in their 30s. At least not without a major change in their pitch mix either by adding a pitch or using what he has differently. There hasn’t been any of that with Guthrie which made his improvement even more suspicious. This split of his innings as a Royal definitely stood out:

Guthrie

IP

ERA

WHIP

K%

BB%
vs. CWS

35.7

0.50

0.81

21%

2%
vs. Rest

87.7

4.21

1.31

14%

7%

Guthrie has owned his Saturday night opponent since becoming a Royal and it is driving his new found success. Against the rest of the league, he’s simply been the solid, if unspectacular Jeremy Guthrie we’ve known for nearly a decade, but he’s a Cy Young frontrunner against the Pale Hose. Let’s see if he continues the dominance tonight in Kauffman Stadium.

For those wondering, two of these five starts have come in Kauffman Stadium and he’s allowed five runs, but only one earned in 13 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts and two walks.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Breakdown, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

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Friday: 04.12.2013

Barry Good? Not Likely.

It doesn’t take a revisionist historian to understand that the 7 year, $126 million dollar deal that the Giants gave Barry Zito was a bad idea. Looking at the results of the nearly completed deal certainly backs up those of us who thought it was an overpay at the time, but the eroding skills and results during his final years in Oakland showed a guy who was morphing from a good pitcher to an innings eater. Innings eaters shouldn’t get seven year deals, let alone $18 mil a year on top of that.

Zito had the one great season when he stole a Cy Young Award away from Pedro Martinez, but otherwise his key attribute was reliability as he a near-certainty for 34-35 starts a year. His coda with the A’s saw rapidly dwindling ability paired with remarkably fortunate ERA totals that hid from plain sight his drop into mediocrity. The first suspected culprit would be his home ballpark, known for fueling ERAs that easily outpaced the accompanying skill. Alas it was actually his road work that kept him afloat with two sub-4.00 ERAs in his final two years.

zitolast3

The results compared against the advanced ERA indicators further showed the impending doom:

zito3chart

Flash forward six-plus years and it’s not too surprising that Zito’s San Francisco career has yielded 1020 innings of 4.41 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 1.58 K/BB. In other words, he has been the innings eater we saw developing back in his late-20s logging 32 or more starts in all but one of his seasons with the other Bay Area ballclub (2011).

Two starts into the final year of this nightmare deal for the Giants has seen Zito mow down his competition for 14 scoreless innings, a 2-0 record, and an even 1.00 WHIP. Maybe it is the difficulty of finding topics early in the season or maybe some actually believe it to be true, but these two outings have spurred talks of some sort of rejuvenation for Zito with some suggesting that a situation may arise where he is on the cusp of 200 innings and the Giants may be inclined to fiddle with him in the rotation to avoid that threshold as it would kick in a 2014 vesting option for $18 million dollars. Slow your roll, folks.

Zito hasn’t yet thrown 200 innings as a Giant and only once has he been better than league average by ERA- registering a 98 in 2009, or two percent better than league average. Meanwhile, his next 2.0 K/BB ratio with the Giants will be his first. Furthermore, we’ve been down this road before.

First off, something about season openers sits well with Zito. In his last four season debuts, he has a 0.96 ERA and 0.68 WHIP in 28 innings with all three runs given up in 2011. He stayed hot in 2010 posting a 1.53 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 35.3 innings across five stats. His opponents in those five starts included four of the worst offenses in baseball that year: Houston (29th in wRC+), Pittsburgh (28th), LA Dodgers (22nd), St. Louis (12th), and Colorado (27th on the road). The rest of the year he put up a 4.72 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 164 innings.

He did it all again last year. After kicking off the season with a shutout of the Rockies (in Colorado no less!), he reeled off another trio of gems yielding a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 27 April innings. He deserves plenty of credit for thwarting the Rockies in Coors as they were the 8th-best home offense, but the next three outings came against Pittsburgh (26th), NY Mets (22nd), and Cincinnati (23rd, but in fairness, 17th at home). The rest of the way? He was quite pumpkin-like with a 4.58 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in 157.3 innings.

There is nothing in the 35 year old’s game that suggests these first two starts are indicative of a forthcoming strong season. His velocity continues to drop toward Moyerian levels checking in at 82.9 MPH this year, continuing a four-year plunge from 2009’s 86.5 MPH. It will be a major upset if he is an above average starter for 200+ innings and these first two starts don’t change the odds much, if at all. Fantasy managers, step away from your waiver wires, there’s nothing to see here.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Breakdown, Fantasy Baseball, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

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Friday: 02.22.2013

MLB At Bat 13

I was going to do a post letting everyone know that At Bat’s 2013 iteration was available, but my BP colleague Maury Brown already did all the fantastic leg work so I’ll point you to his preview of the app instead:

Biz of Baseball Previews At Bat

Meanwhile, after a pair of fake fake games yesterday as the Red Sox split up to take on a pair of colleges, we get real fake games today with four Spring Training games on the docket. This is a beautiful site:

stgames

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Elsewhere on the net:

I wrote about five interesting pitchers to follow this Spring Training as they battle to be a part of the Opening Day 25.

I had Mike Gianella as a co-host, filling in for Jason Collette, and Bret Sayre as a guest on this week’s Towers of Power podcast. Gianella and Sayre are both new additions to the BP fantasy team for 2013.

Posted in Audio, Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, Jobs, Podcast, Spring Training, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

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Wednesday: 02.13.2013

Countdown to Spring Training: 10 Days – Norichika Aoki

Only 10 days (technically 9, but that’s coming later tonight) until live game action…

I have to go with a new format for the rest of the countdown.

I know we are almost done, but unfortunately I don’t have enough time for the full essays right now. The reason is a very good one for me, though: work! I’ve been getting freelance work assignments that have combined with the SP Guide to take up my Countdown time and then some. Since I am trying to make writing a full-time thing, this is very much good news, but the Countdown is a bit of a casualty. Originally the Countdown was set up to keep the daily content flowing and also gave me a chance to hit on some hitters since most of my focus in on pitching.

I’ll finish out the Countdown, but the format will be a little different. I’m not necessarily going to follow my offensive players list for the final eight days (starting tomorrow). Some days I will. But my post of the day, whatever it is, will serve at the Countdown entry. When it does happen to be a Countdown player, it will be some stats about the guy and occasionally a GIF or video to go with them.  Essentially the posts will be closer to 400-500 words instead of 1500-2000. Just some nuggets on info on a player, strategy, or general baseball topic.

NORICHIKA AOKI

aoki

-Did you know that Aoki led baseball with 34 infield hits? His 34 were the third-most over the last three years. Top two? Ichiro, of course, with 36 in 2011 and 53 (!) in 2010.

-He hit just .653 on line drives. And yes, it’s only because the league hit .718 on them. If he had matched league average he’d have gained 10 points pushing his average up to .298 last year.

-Though his final year before coming to MLB saw him hit just four home runs, he hit 14 in 2010, 16 in 2009, 14 again in 2008, and 20 in 2007. He is a heavy groundball hitter (55 percent) and his 17 percent line drive rate is modest, but there may be some home run growth from his 10 in 2012. We are talking 2-3 more here, but every bit helps, especially when it’s add-on value. You’re drafting Aoki for speed, batting average, and runs scored so even a repeat of his 10 home runs works.

-Imagine if the Brewers had used their sneaky star all year long. In fairness to them, their Ryan Braun–Carlos Gomez–Corey Hart setup was pretty formidable which made it difficult to find space for Aoki. Mat Gamel tore his ACL on May 4th shifting Hart to first and Aoki into a permanent role. From that point on he went: .289/.354/.433 with 9 HR, 48 RBI, 77 R, 30 SB in 557 PA.

-And finally, Aoki is going 140th overall in the NFBC drafts that have been conducted thus far. That’s just into the 10th round for those leagues. Not bad value for someone who put up that across-the-board effort. The 31-year old import is still a bit underrated.

Posted in Countdown to Spring Training, Fantasy Baseball, Outfield, Player Focus, Rightfield, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 7 Comments »

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Monday: 02.11.2013

Countdown to Spring Training: 11 Days – Denard Span

Only 11 days until live game action…

DENARD SPAN

It isn’t too difficult to be excited about the Denard Span move to Washington. He was traded there this offseason for prospect Alex Meyer. Here is big reason why the Nationals were high enough on Span to trade their 2012 #6 prospect who now becomes Minnesota’s 2013 #4:

spandefense

His sparkling defense is ever-present and adds a lot to his value. He gives the Nats the true centerfielder they’ve been after for years. Bryce Harper and Roger Bernadina turned a strong combined effort last year, but the five years before were mediocre or worse:

span1

Compare that with Span producing fWAR totals of 3.1, 4.1, 2.6, 2.2, and 3.9 from 2008 through last year with the 3.1, 2.2, and 3.9 coming in 94, 70, and 128 games, respectively. The primary challenge will be staying healthy enough to give the Nats a full season so he can return to his 4-win levels. While he gets plenty of value from his defense in center, he also has a solid bat, especially for a leadoff man. His walk rate started at 11 percent over his first two seasons before dipping a bit, but it has held steady in the eights every year since with last year’s 8.3 still holding above the 8.0 league average.

Span isn’t special in either of the flashy offensive categories in fantasy: homers or steals, but he has a chance to deliver big value in the two overlooked categories: batting average and runs scored, especially the later. He is a career .284 hitter and he hit .283 a year ago, but his line drive rate is on the rise moving from 18 percent in 2010 to 21.3 percent a year ago and he is speedster with a heavy groundball lean posting a career high of 54.4 percent last year (compared to 53.8 for his career) so he has the makings of a greater than .300 average. Last year he was just 10 hits from a .302 average. It’s not a stretch to see him hitting or exceeding .300 as soon as 2013.

He could be ready for his first 100-run season in 2013, too. His career-best was 97 back in 2009 in just 145 games. Last year, the Nationals leadoff spot scored 96 runs which were right about league average ranking 14th in baseball despite the fact that only Jayson Werth carried an OBP over .312 in that role. This bodes well for Span.

(Courtesy of ESPN)

(Courtesy of ESPN)

Even at his worst, Span carried a .328 OBP (2011) and the heart of the Nats order is stacked this year. Even if you factor in some regression for Adam LaRoche on the heels of his second-best season, it is offset by a full seasons of Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. Harper started 2012 in the minors while Zimm started 2012 like he was in the minors carrying a sub-700 OPS into the All-Star break, though he eventually finished with a strong 824. Now batting fifth again, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Werth focus on bringing the power aspect back into his game in full force. It all adds up to one of the deepest groups of 2-5 hitters in the league.

A healthy Span – and he seems to have finally put the frightening concussions issues behind him – is looking at a .300-100-7-55-15 season with the high-powered Nats.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Centerfield, Countdown to Spring Training, Fantasy Baseball, GIFtastic, Off-Season, Outfield, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

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Sunday: 02.10.2013

Countdown to Spring Training: 12 Days – Chris Carter

Only 12 days until live game action…

CHRIS CARTER

I mentioned when I wrote about Carter on Monday that this would probably be the Houston entry for the Countdown. Writing about Jose Altuve would be too obvious (though I do have obvious selections in the Countdown *cough* Wrench *cough*) and frankly there just aren’t any other Houston hitters I’m particularly interested in writing about, sorry Marwin Gonzalez. Instead of a straight regurgitation, I do have some new commentary about Carter.

Don’t be afraid of his batting average. It’s going to be bad, that’s a lock. There have been nine instances of someone posting a 30 percent or higher strikeout rate in a full season of work the last three years and only twice did their average top .244 (Chris Davis at .270 last year, Adam Dunn at .260 in 2010). Five of the 10 were at .221 and below. But you can afford to draft one anchor, maybe even two if you have two virtual certainties for .315 or better like Joey Votto and Joe Mauer. I usually only recommend the one, though. So if you want to target Carter (and you should given his massive power) then you are taking Dunn, Dan Uggla, Ryan Howard, and Mark Reynolds types off the table unless you want a batting average deficit that you will struggle with all year.

Meanwhile, the Astros confirmed that they are considering trying Carter at leftfield which is where MLB Depth Charts had him from the jump so that really enhances his chances at a full season of playing time. He is also slotted into the cleanup spot in the lineup which is good even on a terrible team. He is still going to struggle for RBIs because of his team environment, but at least he has a chance to maximize his RBI opportunities.

Playing for such a bad team should keep Carter’s reasonable even as the hype starts to build after this trade. Though far from a unique skill set, it is still a desirable one. As we see more and more leagues shift to on-base percentage, we see players like Carter get more appreciated for their overall value so definitely bump him up a considerable amount if you do play with OBP.

Now here is Monday’s initial piece and the addendum together.

—

The Astros have a front office that understands how to rebuild. The best way to do it is to truly burn it to the ground and start over. In their latest such move, they traded Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez for Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, and Max Stassi. A 29-year old shortstop who is on the team until at least 2015 isn’t a bad asset for a rebuilding team like Houston, but a 26-year old slugger (who is probably a DH, but ostensibly can play first base or maybe leftfield which is where MLB Depth Charts has him as of now) and a 24-year old prospect arm who are under team control until 2019 are much better. This move is perfect for Carter.

Carter got his first real shot last year and popped 16 homers along with a .239/.350/.514 line in 260 plate appearances. He did strikeout 32 percent of the time, but also carried a strong 15 percent walk rate. He’s a classic three true outcome player and his new home is tailor-made for his game. His power plays anywhere so even in his cavernous home ballpark with Oakland he still had a .458 slugging percentage (the A’s as a team had a .392 slugging percentage at home) and five home runs despite the 89 home run park factor for right-handers. His move to Houston brings a major improvement to home venue as Minute Maid Park yields a 109 park factor to righties on home runs.

Plus, with Houston’s move to the AL West, Carter’s favorite venue from 2012 is still in play as he hit three of his 11 road homers in Texas in just six games. When you are dealing with a 260 plate appearance season, any parsing of that data is going to be subject to small sample size issues as the whole is already just a half season so keep that in mind, but it’s not like this power appeared out of nowhere for Carter. It’s always been his calling card so even with the scant samples, I’m confident in projecting that this move is a huge benefit for him. Consider also that his 182 home runs in 3647 plate appearances as a minor leaguer translate to about 30 per 600 plate appearances (29.9 to be exact). He hit 65 of those home runs in 1277 PAs in Triple-A which actually tops that overall rate checking in at 30.5 per 600 PA.

Thanks to Katron.org’s balls in play project, we can get a sense of how Carter might fare in Houston, or at least how he would’ve fared in Houston with last year’s batted ball distribution. The following is a mapping of Carter’s batted balls in Oakland on a Minute Maid Park overlay. You will see three leftfield batted ball outcomes labeled for what they were in Oakland, which would’ve likely gone for home runs in Houston. There is also a handful of warning track shots in left centerfield that might’ve gotten out in Houston depending on various circumstances. Meanwhile the five home runs were all no doubters on the Minute Maid overlay. Be mindful that this is all academic as he won’t have the exact same batted ball distribution in 2013, but it gives some sense of how his power production can improve with his new club.

CarterinMMP

By the way, Jed Lowrie was my Houston pick for the Countdown to Spring Training so don’t be surprised if this re-runs for the Houston CtST entry down the road. If I can find someone else I’m interested in, I’ll definitely go another way, but Carter is someone I really like so this fits pretty well, too. I didn’t really want to hold this analysis until Houston’s day, either. Meanwhile, Lowrie is unlikely to hold a spot in the Countdown as I had my eye on someone else for Oakland and don’t know if I want to switch it up.

—

Addendum:

Earlier today after he was dealt to Houston, I did a piece on Chris Carter and how his power should spike with his new home ballpark. I used the Katron.org balls in play information to outline three batted balls from Carter that would’ve been home runs in Minute Maid Park. It was meant to accentuate the point regarding his likely power improvements in his much friendly environs, but it was greatly flawed. You see, the Katron dots are where the ball is fielded not where it landed. I knew this in the recesses of my mind, but I never gave full thought to the notion and what it means when analyzing this kind of data.

Here is the legend for the Katron data:

katronkey

The problem comes in that we don’t know the hit type of singles, doubles, triples, and home runs. So I absent-mindedly assumed (never assume, kids) that the doubles were hit in the air either as line drives or flies. They were not. After getting some education about Katron and the potential flaws with using the data as I did, I went back to the video and found out that my particular examples show just how dangerous using the data as I did can be when the dots represent where the ball is fielded and not where it first hits the ground.

First, let’s look at the doubles:

ccarter1a

ccarter2a

See the problem now? I apologize for that, I simply didn’t put together the inherent flaws of using the data like that. It’s 100% my fault, though, so I’m not crapping on the folks over at Katron.org as it’s even there in bold below the charts:

Every location is where the ball was fielded by a player, not where it landed. You better read this Paul Sporer you stupid dummy. 

That may not be a fully accurate quote from their site.

Perhaps if I had been reading my now-BP-colleague Sam Miller a year ago when he was writing at the OC Register, this all could’ve been prevented.

Hey, at least the flyball I highlighted doesn’t have the same issues. There is no guarantee it would’ve been out in Minute Maid, but we see the 367 sign behind Josh Hamilton when he catches it and we know that Minute Maid is 315 for a large portion of leftfield known as the Crawford Boxes.

ccarter3

(click for huge version)

(click for huge version)

 

 

Posted in Analysis, Countdown to Spring Training, Designated Hitter, Fantasy Baseball, First Base, GIFtastic, Leftfield, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 9 Comments »

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Saturday: 02.9.2013

Countdown to Spring Training: 13 Days – Victor Martinez

Only 13 days until live game action…

VICTOR MARTINEZ

The biggest issue with Victor Martinez in 2013 is one being settled before camps even start. His eligibility after a season lost to injury has been a topic of debate especially after CBS decided to make DH-only. I personally don’t agree with the decision at all, but they addressed it head on and there is at least reasoning behind it regardless of whether or not I agree. Both Yahoo! and ESPN will keep Martinez at catcher. He played 26 games at catcher in 2011. I get what Nando DiFino is saying with the “regular catcher” issue in that he hasn’t been a full-time backstop since 2010, but I don’t agree that he “used” his last year of catcher eligibility in 2012 and since he didn’t play he’s no longer eligible.

For those of your in CBS leagues, you should reach out to your commissioners to see how it’s going to be played so you don’t get surprised come draft day when you think you’re stealing a catcher late only to realize he lasted a couple of extra rounds because he is a power-light DH-only player. Speaking of DH, some AL-Only leagues require that you put an actual DH (20+ games there) in that spot as opposed to it being a utility spot for anyone. The usage of the spot in baseball has made that a much easier fill with 32 players registering 20+ games there and 27 of them putting up a 101 OPS+ or better. Add in Martinez and you should have trouble filling spot even after you remove guys like Carlos Santana, Evan Longoria, and Joe Mauer who have way too value at their original position to consider slotting them at DH.

As for Martinez himself, he is poised for another big season. His 12 homers in 2011 were the fewest he’s hit in a full season, but he made up for it with a .330 average and 103 RBIs. His flyball rate dropped from 42 percent in 2010 to just 33 percent, but most of the shift went to line drives explaining his career-best .330 mark. His 24 percent line drive was a career-best for a full season and seven percent higher than his 2010. He could bring his average back down to his .303 career level and still push 100 RBIs, but he would likely need the power to return a bit closer to the 20s we were used to from him prior to 2011.

In 2011, he had the bad Austin Jackson leading off with just a .317 on-base percentage. It was also Magglio Ordonez’s final season and he was hardly himself with just a .303 OBP. Miguel Cabrera was still excellent and Brennan Boesch had his best season. In 2013, V-Mart likely gets a much better Jackson setting the table while Torii Hunter will probably be close to what Boesch was that year (.341 OBP). Of course the treat is the Cabrera-Prince Fielder combo just ahead of him.

Last year Delmon Young was the primary fifth hitter for the Tigers. He managed a whopping .261 with men on base resulting in 63 RBIs. In 2011, Martinez hit an amazing .404 with men on. I wouldn’t expect a repeat there, but even his career .324 is markedly better than what Young offered a year ago. Young’s 63 RBIs came on 70 hits, a 90 percent ratio. Martinez’s ratio for his career with men on is 99 percent (664 RBIs on 670 hits). The league as a whole with men on a year ago was at 95 percent (17077-for-18073). Young had 268 ABs with men on last year and Martinez had 270 two years ago, so giving Martinez 269 this year with a .324 average is 87 hits. Using the league average (to be conservative) 95 percent RBI/Men on Hits ratio yields 83 RBIs.

He had just two solo home runs in 2011 after full seasons of 14, 10, 10, 15, 15, and 10 spanning 2004-2010 taking out his 67-game 2008. That’s an average of 12. Even that leaves us just short of 100 RBIs. Of course these are just estimates. He could get more at-bats with men on, he could simply hit better than .324, or drive in more guys than the league average 95 percent of RBI/MOH.

How his RBI total breaks down, I think he is going to be extremely valuable again in 2013 even if his power doesn’t return and even if you’re locked into using him as a DH-only. Obviously he will have much more value as a catcher, but he will also cost more. The price tag will likely fall significantly in leagues where he is DH-only unless you run into someone wanting to gamble that he accumulates enough games behind the dish. I would strongly advise against that bet. Everything I’ve heard out of the organization has said that he won’t catch at all.

If he is to keep his homer output from 2011, he will be looking to have just the 11th instance of 15 or fewer homers and 100+ RBIs since 1990.

Posted in Analysis, Catcher, Countdown to Spring Training, Designated Hitter, Detroit Tigers, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

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