So I got a message today (woo, someone reads… thanks mom!!) asking if there were going to be weekend Daily Doses. Right now as I’m finishing the Starting Pitcher Guide, the answer is no. I’m dedicating my weekend time entirely to the book right now. After the Guide, it’s to be determined. For now, it’s a Monday-Friday thing.
Friday: 02.4.2011
Daily Dose – February 4th
A quick dose today as we prepare for snow here in Austin. Yes, snow. It’s still something of a novelty here, but it’s not all that rare as we’ve had snow a couple of times in the last few years. Of course it will still paralyze the city and no one will have any clue how to drive in it. By the way, we are looking at 1-2 inches… yep, that’s enough to paralyze the city. OK summer, you can come back anytime now. HURRY!!!
Beyond the Boxscore’s Daniel Moroz (@CamdenCrazies) put together a great piece on the worst 30 home run seasons in baseball. I was sad to see that Curtis Granderson made the list for his 2009 season, but at least he was one of the “best”. It is pretty stunning how awful the worst of the bunch was in overall value (or severe & utter lack thereof).
One of the biggest questions in fantasy baseball circles this offseason is around the projections of Jose Bautista for 2011. After his insane breakout 54 home run season, everyone is interested to see if it was a total flop or if he is a legitimate top power hitter in the league now. Jon Paul Morosi (@jonpaul) has piece out explains why he thinks Bautista shouldn’t be ignored. As for his fantasy value, expectations are the key. If you are looking for another 54 home runs, you’re almost certainly going to be disappointed, but if you want 32-36 with 105-115 RBIs, a decent batting average and a great on-base percentage (some leagues use OBP), then Bautista is your guy. He’s not Brady Anderson 2.0, folks.
Royals Authority writer Nick Scott (@brokenbatsingle) asks whether it was the year of the pitcher or the year of the smaller bat? An interesting query that takes an in depth look at how a small change could’ve had a significant impact. Scott makes clear that the bat change was likely a contributing factor to the decreased offense we saw in addition to other theories floated as opposed to a singular reason.
Oh no!! One of my favorite players went to one of my least favorite teams. Lastings Milledge has joined the Chicago White Sox, hated rival of my beloved Detroit Tigers. I can’t believe Milledge is already in “minor league contract” territory. I love that guy and I really thought he was going to be awesome. I guess at 26 he can still have a career resurgence (or I guess it would be a career surgence in his case). As author Satchel Price points out in a Milledge comparison, this proves that while their farm system may be baseball’s best, the Royals front office remains horribly inept when it comes to free agent signings. I’m pulling for Lastings as long as he doesn’t rip my Tigers.
I’m not sure when this became available, but I wouldn’t be surprised if NBC saw Ron Swanson’s Pyramid of Greatness go viral and then decided to make it into a poster they could sell for $19.95. Parks & Recreation just might be the best show on TV right now and it’s due in large part to Ron Swanson.
Not only is Parks & Rec hilariously awesome, but it also features the lovely Rashida Jones who I have been a huge fan of since Boston Public back in 2000. She was in some things after BP, but I don’t recall seeing her again until 2008 when she was on a pile of crap show called Unhitched which was also on FOX. I watched it strictly because of her. Since then she had a recurring role on The Office and I’d say that really set her career in motion with movies roles (I Love You, Man, The Social Network) and P&R all coming shortly after her Office arc. She’s awesome:
The new book Scorecasting: The Hidden Influences Behind How Sports Are Played and Games Are Won has drawn mixed reviews from what I have read on Twitter. I’ve seen some say it’s fantastic and a must read while others question the methodology behind some of the studies. It’s on my list to read, but I’m waiting for it to come out in iBooks so I can use my iTunes giftcard to get it. That’s more information than you need, but I can’t recommend it one way or another right now, but I can recommend this New York Times article on the Freakonomics blog where the authors answer questions about the book.
With Spring Training (thankfully) drawing nearer, Alex Remington of FanGraphs wonders if the Grapefruit League may soon become a relic thanks in large part to the sprawling stadium locations in Florida that pale in comparison to cluster, convenient facilities in Arizona. Having been to both sites (Arizona for the Fall League only), it’s hard not to see Alex’s point. When I went to see my Tigers in Lakeland, it wasn’t easy to plan on hitting other games. The only other venue I made it out to was Tampa to see the Yankees and that was 45 minutes away. It’s just a much better set up in Arizona.
Even though I’m more of an SVU fan myself, this statistical breakdown of the first 10 seasons of Law & Order is fantastic. I always enjoy stuff like this if for no other reason than to respect the effort put into such a creation. The author ends with his rendition of the famous L&O sound which he put down as “Ka-CHUNG”. I’ve never heard that way, for me it’s always been “Dun-Dun!”
It was a sad day for Amanda Rykoff (@amandarykoff) as Andy Pettitte announced his retirement. Though she took the news pretty hard, she mustered enough energy to put together a Farewell for the Yankee legend. I’m about as far from a Yankees fan as you can get, but Pettitte was always one of the Yankees I liked as he helped me in multiple fantasy seasons. I don’t think he’s Hall of Fame despite a great career. It has nothing to do with the HGH issue, I just don’t think his body of work merits a Hall plaque.
And those who quote his or any other Yankees’ accumulated postseason numbers (most innings, most wins, whatever…), just stop. That has more to do with circumstance than it does any significant skill. Pettitte was strong in the playoffs, I’m not denying that don’t quote me accumulation stats as reasons why he should be in the Hall. There just isn’t a HOF case for him. Not now. Not ever. He will get more consideration than he deserves both because he is a Yankee and because of the postseason success, but in the end I think the writers will do the right thing and leave him out.
It’s hard not to laugh when Justin Bieber booed essentially just for being Justin Bieber as he is here:
And spare me with this idiot crying. Shut the hell up, clown. (Hat tip to Sharapova’s Thigh [@sharapovasthigh] for the video.)
Blog recommendation: If you’re a baseball fan and you’re not reading Buster Olney’s (@Buster_ESPN) blog daily then you’re missing out. It is behind the Insider pay wall, but ESPN has made that well worth it in the past few years. Olney, Keith Law (@keithlaw) and Chad Millman (@chadmillman) alone make it worth the money, but that’s far from all of the valuable material you get with it. You can get Insider for $26 and it comes with a subscription to ESPN Magazine. That’s a pretty great deal. No, ESPN did not pay me for this plug. I just think it’s a great product. And if you’ve followed me on Twitter for any amount of time, you know I’m not afraid to tear into the Worldwide Leader when they deserve it (which is often).
Programming Note: I doubt anyone really cares, but since I write this at night I’m going to start dating it for the following day. A lot of times I’m not finished until after midnight anyway and it just feels kinda weird promoting a piece dated as yesterday even though it’s only a few hours old when I post the link on Twitter in the morning. So basically there will be no Daily Dose for February 3rd as this one will be the for Friday February 4th.
Thursday: 02.3.2011
Three Questions – San Diego Padres
With the 2011 Starting Pitcher Guide set to come out in a few weeks, I have a jam packed volume covering all the ins and outs of starting pitching in the 2011 season for your viewing pleasure. Of course that doesn’t do much to address the offensive side of things so I decided to start this “Three Questions” where I will cover some key offensive issues for each of the 30 teams. There will be more content here dealing with offense, but this is the beginning.
What happens to this offense without Adrian Gonzalez?
Oh don’t worry, new first baseman Brad Hawpe will fill in so well that you will barely notice Gonzalez left. A .298/.393/.511 line with 31 bombs and 101 RBIs shouldn’t be a problem for Hawpe. OK that’s obviously an egregious lie that I don’t believe in the least. Do you want to know how important Gonzalez was to an offense that still only finished 22nd with him? Look at this:
Gonzalez led them in five key offensive categories and no one was really close. Chase Headley was the 2nd-highest qualifying batting average at .264, Will Venable’s 13 home runs were 2nd to Gonzalez, Headley had a whopping 58 RBIs to finish 2nd on the team, Yorvit Torrealba was 50 points behind Gonzalez with a .343 OBP, but that came in just 325 at-bats. The 2nd-highest qualifying on-base percentage was again Headley with a paltry .327 mark. And in the most hotly contest of the five categories, Headley finished 14 hits behind Gonzalez with 161 on the season.
Counting stats for Padres hitters are likely to be even worse than they were last year cutting into the already stunted value of the group. Headley managed those 58 RBIs despite hitting behind Gonzalez, who was getting on base 40% of the time for him. The team added some pieces in addition Hawpe including a brand new double play duo with Orlando Hudson at second base and Jason Bartlett at shortstop as well as former super-prospect Cameron Maybin, but the loss of Gonzalez is still a major blow to an offense that was already pretty poor.
The power-sapping ways of PETCO park are nothing new and Padres hitters have long been evaluated with that impact built in, but without their superstar cog in the middle the entire group takes another hit to their value. The chances of the six year streak of a non-Gonzalez entity topping 100 R or 100 RBI being broken seem slim. The last two players to do it were in 2004 when Mark Loretta scored 108 runs and Phil Nevin drove in 105.
Following up a career year with one of his worst, what’s in store for Jason Bartlett in 2011?
The 2010 season was a rough one for Bartlett especially in light of his breakout 2009 in which he hit 14 home runs, drove in 66 runs, scored 90 runs, stolen 30 bases and hit .320, all career highs. Lucky for him, he plays shortstop which is a barren wasteland after the top tier so he will have some value no matter what. How much exactly is going to be tied to how many stolen bases he rack up. He had a string of 23, 20 and 30 before last year’s 11, so the ability is there and San Diego was the 6th-runningest (so surprised that didn’t get a red squiggly line under it in Word) team last year with 124 stolen bases.
Additionally, he can offer some batting average value or at least not be a drag for a team. Last year his .254 was a drag as regression bit back hard from 2009 and instead of falling back to career norms, he was actually a bit unlucky. He is .281 hitter for his career and there is no reason to think he shouldn’t bounce back to that in 2011 and if luck breaks his way again, it wouldn’t be tough for him to top .300 again. So as a late round speed/average shortstop, he has some value. As I mentioned already, counting numbers will be tough to come by on this team. Especially for Bartlett who isn’t particularly adept at getting on base. Though he has a career .345 OBP, it is propped up by the standout 2009 and a .367 mark in 372 plate appearances back in 2006.
One last thing to consider with him is that he has only averaged 135 games played in the last four years with a high watermark of 140 and a low of 128. That means you’re going to need a replacement for around 27 games, or 16% of the season. Given the dearth of talent at shortstop, this can be a problematic proposition. His backup is likely to be Kevin Frandsen or Everth Cabrera. You could fill one of Bartlett’s strengths depending on who fills in, Frandsen for average and Cabrera for speed. If you’re left hitting the wire, you may find that the remains are somehow even less appealing than Frandsen and Cabrera.
Is Cameron Maybin ready to pay dividends on his blue chip prospect status?
The problem is we might not even notice if he does improve because of his home ballpark. He has certainly proven everything he can in the minor leagues so it is time for the three-time top 8 Baseball America prospect to start showing the talent at the big league level. At 24 with just a season’s worth of big league plate appearances (610) under his belt, even a poor 2011 wouldn’t be enough to write him off completely but it would put closer to Brandon Wood territory.
The biggest issue right now is the striking out. He has struck out in 31% of his major league at-bats despite the significant gains in K% in the minors. After striking out in 32% of his AA at-bats in 2008, he cut down to 20% in his first run through AAA in 2009 followed by 19% in 130 AAA at-bats last year. Any contact would be better than striking out for Maybin at this point. At the very least, he could maybe use his excellent speed to turn some of his groundballs into base hits.
Better pitch recognition can increase his value another way as more walks would again allow him to add value by way of his speed. As noted in the Bartlett section above, the Padres aren’t afraid to run, but it is hard to do much running with a .302 on-base percentage.
I don’t think Maybin will magically fix the strikeout and walk issues all at once in 2011, but I think we will see incremental gains in his first full season which should yield a 20+ stolen base season and low-teens power. You can do much worse than that for a low dollar late outfield option in NL-Only leagues. I don’t think he is quite a dollar days guy just yet, especially if your league has any guys who love grabbing the next big thing, but his price tag shouldn’t be pushing double digits. As a single digit buy, I would highlight him as a quality end-game play perfect for rounding out a team.
Tuesday: 02.1.2011
Daily Dose: February 1st
This is the Daily Dose. Daily Dose of what you might ask? For that there is no concrete answer. There will be article recommendations as I love to read and then share interesting things that I read. 90% of the time it will be baseball-related stuff. I don’t want it to be a pure link-roll type thing as there are plenty of those out there now. I’ll have my commentary on various baseball stories from time to time. It will be stories I only have a quick opinion or two on. Obviously anything in depth would be post in itself. I’ll also be dropping fantasy baseball knowledge bombs on you in order to hopefully help you in your offseason preparation.
Why the name Daily Dose? There is no special meaning. It’s not terribly original. I’m sure there are tons of things, possibly things similar to this, named the Daily Dose out there. It was a name that hit me as I was thinking this up (thinking this up, who am I kidding? This isn’t a revolutionary idea. As I was deciding that I wanted to do something like this, the DD name just popped up). With a name like Daily Dose, I’m planning to do it… you guessed it, daily!!! I will still finish the Three Questions series and of course I’m still working very hard on the 2011 Starting Pitcher Guide, which is coming along nicely if I may say so myself. Anywhere, Daily Dose: Take 1… annnndd action.
Jason Collette of Baseball Prospectus looks at how one of his opponents fared with a $9 pitching staff strategy. That isn’t a group of pitchers valued at $9 apiece, that’s 9 pitchers at a buck each. He also analyzes the challenge of putting together a $9 staff in 2011.
Having done the Starting Pitcher guides the last few years, I’m not sure I would have the discipline to pull off such a strategy because there are guys I end really coveting for the upcoming season. Sometimes they are cheap end-game options I can get for a dollar, but if I like them enough and someone pops them to $2, then I’m definitely firing $3 without blinking. On the other hand, the depth of the SP guides would leave me well equipped with options if I were to undertake such a strategy.
Stick with BP, R.J. Anderson put together a handy list of players who are out of options heading into the 2011 season. This list can be especially useful in analyzing position battles. If there is a tie between a guy with options and one without, you can almost certainly favor the latter and feel more comfortable spending your roto dollars on them.
This is the funniest thing I have read in quite a while. That said, I may need to sue Jon Bois for nearly killing me as I read the Dad Meek entry. My grape & strawberry Starburst jellybeans were nearly the death of me. Do not, I repeat DO NOT, enjoy tasty treats while reading this excellent work.
I don’t hate this piece by George Winkler that looks at the Pros and Cons of Hanley Ramirez for the 2011 season, but I have a bit of a problem with the subtitle “Is he still worth a top-five pick?” which I think is a slam-dunk “yes” any way you slice it. I was also taken aback at Winkler’s assertion that shortstop might be thinner than second base this year and that it would be the first time in seven years that this was the case.
Not only is second base much deeper than shortstop this year, but it was last year, too. Second base wasn’t even the second-thinnest position in 2010, it was third base. Not only does second base smash shortstop in a comparison of top tiers, but the second and third tiers also have much surer options than the Olsen twin-thin shortstop. Of course Winkler reaches the same conclusion re: Ramirez’s value, but it just took him 595 words.
Ted Berg of TedQuarters.net takes a look at the Johan Santana trade from a bit of a different angle. Instead merely judging it in terms of what the Mets gave the Twins, he looks at the financial implications for the Mets which are especially important in light of the money issues plaguing the team thanks to venereal disease-like Bernie Madoff, his sting just won’t go away.
Over at Beyond the Boxscore, Satchel Price ranks the four rotations of the AL West. I’m going to bookmark this one and revisit it after the SP Guide is released so we can compare it to my ranking of the West rotations.
With the first baseball-related post in his new gig over at SBNation, Rob Neyer eviscerates… himself. He looks back on a prediction column from the winter of 1999-2000 where he tried to predict the best players at each position over the next decade. By the way, I was as shocked as everyone else was that Neyer left ESPN, but I was even more shocked that he resurfaced at SBNation merely a day later. I, like many, am a HUGE Neyer fan. He was kind enough to come on my college radio show years ago. It was a pretty big “get” and thanks to Neyer, I was the man around the studio for a few weeks leading up to and immediately afterward. Neyer is, in effect, this generation’s Bill James in a lot of ways. Many of the top baseball writers on the internet have Neyer to thank for the inspiration. I think he’s going to be great for SBNation.
And finally, RotoHardball’s Eno Sarris has released the site’s preliminary third base rankings. I think they overrated Chase Headley while at the same time underrating Aramis Ramirez. Sarris and I debated this on Twitter shortly after the rankings came out. He felt that Headley’s speed was worth quite a bit and that Ramirez was unquestionably in a decline phase. For me, Ramirez’s worst season (last year) was just about as good as Headley’s best. With so much cheap speed available, I don’t need Headley’s mid-teens speed. I need power from third base as it isn’t as prevalent anymore. Ramirez offers power, including 25 home runs in, again, his worst year. I don’t have any major quibbles with the rest of the list and it is labeled a working document so it will be interesting to see how it evolves over the course of Spring Training.
FYI: Yahoo! is opening their fantasy baseball registration up a week from today. I think you get what you pay for with Yahoo!, but if you don’t want to pay then it’s just fine. Personally, I love CBS and I try to use it for as many as leagues as possible. I do use Yahoo! for my Free Agent Only league every year. I fill my predraft list with the worst players possible and then add/drop my team from the remaining free agents after the draft. I’ve a mixed bag of success in this yearly endeavor. The highest I have finished is 2nd. I know some folks who have won these leagues, but a lot of it depends on how stupid your league mates are in terms of who they get impatient with and how much and who they will trade.
Speaking of coming soon, the 2011 edition of the MLB2K series is just over a month away and I can’t wait. I think they keep making this series better each year with the 2K10 version being far & away the best yet. I actually hated 2K9, so I was thrilled that 2K10 made major improvements. I expect some quality improvements again this year and I’m sure I’ll be playing the 2K11 version next winter as I am the 2K10 version still today.
Knowledge Bomb: Batting Average is a tricky fantasy category to plan for because honestly in a one year sample, a lot of it can come down to luck. In general, this is why I am in favor of switching leagues to On-Base Percentage as the primary rate stat for hitters, but that change has only been incremental in the last few years. So with BA sticking around in the bulk of leagues for the foreseeable future, I want to leave you with this: over the course of a 600 at-bat season, the difference between a .257 hitter and a .300 hitter is a hit per week across the 26-week schedule.
It sounds simple enough, but when you think about it, it’s kind of crazy. A few inches north, south, east or west on an “at-em ball”, a bleeder in between the shortstop and third baseman or a no man’s land bloop per week is difference between being a scrub and being classified as a brilliant hitter. Think about that when you are assessing Matt Kemp’s 2010 in comparison to his 2009. He fell from .297 to .249 thanks to 30 fewer singles last year and all of a sudden he is persona non grata to some fantasy owners.
His BABIP fell 50 points to .295 while the rest of his skills are essentially flat. He is a perfect example how luck that goes against you for a season can change how you’re perceived despite not suffering any legitimate skills decline. The average aside, Kemp was hardly chopped liver with a career high 28 home runs and down but still viable counting stats (82 R, 89 RBI, 19 SB).
He needs to work on his stolen base choices (19-for-34) but after going 69-for-88 (78%) in 2008 and 2009, I don’t think he just lost the ability to steal. I love Kemp for a big season in 2011 and I think he’s a great value play among early rounders as you can get first round talent in the second round or later. A definite buy.
Baseball By Paul 