Posts tagged ‘Chase Headley’

Friday: 02.8.2013

Top 10 Third Basemen Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will continue the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will air both the third base and shortstop shows on Friday evening. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air.

This is not a fantasy list!!

Both Kyle Seager and Brett Lawrie were heavily considered, but in the end they had to be left off this year. I think both will take a step forward in 2013, but not enough to merit a spot. Seager specifically has to combat Safeco Field where he was 200 OPS points worse last year (632 to 835) and I’m not sure the moved fences are going to make that much of a difference. Lawrie was just edged out by #10.

THE LIST

10. Pablo Sandoval (SF) – Two straight years shortened by injury is worrisome, but he looked plenty healthy in the World Series (that jerk!).

9. David Freese (StL) – More than adequately followed up the World Series generated hype with his best season yet. It also happened to be his first full season. There probably isn’t much growth left at 30 years old, but he should sustain in 2013.

8. Chase Headley (SD) – A jump from 4 to 31 home runs is excellent, but how sustainable is it? The power surge came out of nowhere, but Headley as a remarkably talented player isn’t new. He completely understands what Seager is dealing with in Safeco.

7. Martin Prado (ARI) – He was inexplicably included in MLBN’s LF list given the precedent they set with Shin-Soo Choo as he will be a third baseman this year with the D’Backs. A bit underrated because he doesn’t do any one thing extremely well, but instead holds his own in every facet of the game adding up to a damn fine player.

6. Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) – Essentially lost the first three months to injury. Sure, he was playing, but he wasn’t himself carrying a sub-700 OPS through June and even a week into July. That he ended at 824 tells you how great he was the rest of the way.

5. Aramis Ramirez (MIL) – One of the more underrated players in the game in my opinion. He is a fantastic hitter who has been below league average just twice since becoming a full-time player in 2001. He’s a capable third baseman, too.

4. David Wright (NYM) – Simply one of the best in the game. He does it all and he’s still just 30. He really cut into his strikeout rate last year, too, hopefully that’s a skill that has returned because the three years of 20+ percent wasn’t serving him too well.

3. Evan Longoria (TB) – We know he’s a superstar, we’ve seen it, but we haven’t seen that transcendent year yet as his last two have been cut short by injuries. It’s coming.

2. Adrian Beltre (TEX) – It’s so close, but his defense doesn’t do enough to make up the gap between he and #1. My little love letter to him was part of the Spring Training Countdown.

1. Miguel Cabrera (DET) – Far from the best defender at the position, but easily the best hitter. Plus he wasn’t the overwhelming disaster on defense that most people expected. There may be no finer hitter in all of baseball.

What do you think? Any major misses?

Monday: 06.27.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 26th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.  Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

Ari – David Hernandez was crushed for 5 ER w/out recording an out on 6/7. Since: 8.7 scoreless IP w/9 K, 1 H, 3 BB. Nice MR option w/10 K/9. (Ed. note: The Tigers bombed him shortly after I wrote this up.  He is prone to the occasional implosion, but the numbers from implosion-to-implosion are really good at least.)

Det – Justin Verlander is 6-0 in 49.7 IP (8+/start) w/0.72 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 8.5 K/BB over his last 6 starts. He is the AL’s best.

Det2 – Al Alburquerque has stifled 21 of 22 inherited runners. A great pickup if you’re high on IP: 2.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 15 (!) K/9.

Col – Ubaldo Jimenez has a 3.31 ERA/1.29 WHIP since 5-17; even better 2.43/1.20 in June w/7.8 K/9 & 4.1 K/BB

Col2 – Ty Wigginton hitting .298 w/7 HR, 16 RBI & 14 R in June. Scarcely owned depsite 1B-2B-3B elig: C 63%, Y! 41%, E 62%. Must-own.

Col3 – Wiggy (cont.) He’s a fantasy Swiss Army Knife & has had 20+ HR in 4 of last 5 yrs and now in Col. How wasn’t he drafted more?

NYY – CC Sabathia was winless in his 1st 4 starts despite a healthy 2.52 ERA; on Sat. he became 1st SP to 10 W going 10-3 w/3.43 in last 13.

Oak – Hiccup or problem? Trevor Cahill was rocked in 4 straight, but has a 1.15 ERA in 16 IP w/13 K in his last 2. Just beating up the NL?

Phi – Saturday was 35th time Cole Hamels has gone 8+ IP in his career. The Phillies offense has averaged 3.3 runs per game in those starts.

LAA – Jered Weaver fell off the radar a bit after his insane April; he’s on fire again: 3-0, 1.35 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 & 3.1 K/BB in last 47 IP

LAA2 – Dan Haren gets 4.3 R/G of support, 4th-lowest in AL. One of those 3 “ahead” of him? Teammate Jered Weaver: 3.9. #neverchasewins

LAD – Dodgers haven’t scored 2+ R in an innings for 2 wks. So why did Dan Haren give their only 2 guys (Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier) anything?

LAD2 – LAD (cont.) He still won, but those two went 5-for-6 against Haren scoring all 3 of the runs he gave up. C’mon, Dan. Just face Loney.

Cin – Maybe Dusty Baker is using Chris Heisey best by rarely starting him. Starter: .225/.299/.382 in 279 PA; Sub: .356/.402/.644 in 102 PA. Odd.

Bal – Don’t confuse Jake Arrieta‘s 9-4 rec. w/success. His 1.2 HR/9 & 1.7 K/BB scream caution, his rec. is built by MLB-best 9.4 R/G of support.

Was – Roger Bernadina is worth owning (E 41%, Y! 14%, C 26%) as a pwr/spd mix. Hitting .400/.426/.644 w/3 HR & 2 SB in last 11; .333 for June.

CWS – At some point, Ozzie Guillen has to be held accountable for playing Adam Dunn v. LHP. He’s now 1-52 (.019) w/24 Ks. Let Lillibridge DH. (Ed. note: Or as reader Paul Bourdett suggested, call up Dayan Viciedo and let him take the hacks at DH against southpaws.  He is killing it in AAA.)

CWS2 – Dunn (cont.) Yes, it’s a small sample overall, but as much as Dunn is struggling, he needs some time off v. southpaws.

Bos – Andrew Miller isn’t an insta-pickup just bc he’s on Boston. He put on 10 baserunners against SD in 5.7 IP. The 6 Ks were nice, but…

Bos2 – Miller (cont.) He has done nothing to earn our trust at the MLB level. Facing Pitt today, then @HOU & v. BAL, proceed w/EXTREME caution

Pit – Jose Tabata was carted off w/an inj. on Sunday & AAA OF Alex Presley was pulled out of his gm shortly thereafter. NL-Onlys take note.

Pit2 – Presley (cont.) He could be in line for some of Tabata’s PT. The 25 y/o is hitting .336/.389/.500 w/8 HR & 18 SB.

Pit3 – Pirates (cont.) But I’d bet on Xavier Paul (speed) & Garrett Jones (power) seeing legitimate increases in their PT first.

Atl – Jason Heyward hitting .297/.381/.405 in 10 G since return from DL. Overall #s miiiight offer buying opp., espec. in non-keeper lgs.

SD – Chase Headley is still widely available & might be worth platooning on the road. Hitting .474 on latest rd trip; .304 AVG/.806 OPS career.

TB – James Shields bumps Verlander to co-best. Last 3: 27 IP (yes, 3 CGs) w/0.33 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 8 K/9, 6 K/BB & of course 3-0. AL ASG starter?

TB2 – Nice wknd for BJ Upton in Hou: 4-11, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R, 1 SB. Hitting .297 in last 9; prob just means a 1-20 upcoming. He hates batting avg.

Hou – Matt Downs .272/.381/.556 w/5 HR in 97 PA. Rakes RHP & at home; so sit him for Clint Barmes at home v. righty. You wonder why you suck Hou?

Min – Ben Revere is the likely benefactor from Delmon Young inj. Revere hitting .284 w/11 R, 4 SB in June. Serves specific purpose & comes cheap.

Mil – Nyjer Morgan at .309/329/.471 in June, but just 1 SB. Perhaps it’s all of his XBH: 7 2B, 3 3B & 2 HR! A slightly better NL ver. of Revere.

CHC – Reed Johnson picked up where he left returning from the DL w/a .933 OPS w/2 HR & 4 RBI in 10 gm. No shallow mixed appeal, but deep & NL-Only

KC – Joakim Soria is back. His June: 12 IP, 12 K, 6 SV, 6 K/BB, 4 H. I hope you pounced on him as soon as he was cut on Memorial Day. Saw it in 3 lgs.

Tor – Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .283/.353/.522 in June w/2 HR, 3 RBI, 5 BB. Hardly overwhelming, but he quals at DH for lgs that requie true DH.

StL – The Cardinals sans Albert Pujols have not had a good week: 1-5 record, .240/.292/.373, 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

StL2 – In ’10 Jon Jay hit .383/.433/.583 in 115 AB over 49 G (2.4 AB/G); Aug-Sep as a reg. (42 GS), he hit .244/.309/.314 in 172 AB over 56 G (3.3)

StL3 – Jay (cont.) Same in ’11 w/reg PT: .349/.408/.514 thru May (54 G/22 starts); .239/.276/.324 in June (22/17). Sell now while #s still high.

NYM – Daniel Murphy‘s June .318/.355/.386, overall .296/.343/.408; mostly AVG, but 2B/1B elig w/10 G at 3B, too. He’s a playing time glue guy.

Tex – Nelson Cruz is coming out of his funk: .364/.389/.818 w/6 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI & 1 SB in his last 8. Overall #s might offer small discount. Buy.

Cle – Cle is 8-16 in June bc despite success of Masterson & Carrasco, other 3 SP have 5.32 (Talbot), 6.60 (Tomlin) & 7.62 (Carmona) ERAs.

SF – Ryan Vogelsong does not care that he is Ryan Vogelsong, still has allowed more than 2 ER just once in 13 starts. Skills remain strong, too.

SF2 – Vogel (cont.) Doesn’t mean he isn’t some to sell. 13 starts convinces ppl he’s legit, but 86% LOB% & 5.1% HR/FB = SOME regression on 1.86 ERA

SF3 – Vogel (cont.) Let’s say he ends yr w/a 3.00 ERA. He’d be 3.83 ROtW. Oddly enough, that’d be a sub-100 ERA+. 3.10+ = 4.00+ ERA

SF4 – Vogel (cont.) You’re not going to rip someone off for a 33 yr old journeyman, but any upgrade to your tm would be worth moving him. Sell.

Sea – I shy away from low-K SPs, but Doug Fister is criminally under-owned (high of 31% @ CBS): 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 K/BB + Safeco & great D

Flo – Mike Dunn has K’d at least 1 batter in all of his last 13 outings, but otherwise been terrible: 6.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 4 HR, 18 K… ouch.

Flo2 – That’s why you never spend a lot on middle RPs, you have to be able to cut bait at a moment’s notice. Aroldis Chapman stung ppl this yr.

Monday: 06.6.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 5th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Det – Austin Jackson was sub-.200 on 5/6, hitting .284/.346/.432 w/2 HR, 9 RBI, 14 R, 9BB, 6 SB since. DET 15-9 during stretch; 15-18 before.

CWS – Gordon Beckham, Adam Dunn & Alex Rios are a combined .205/.291/.324 w/14 HR & 55 RBI in 581 AB

CWS2 – 5 players have more HR than the trio & 4 are within 10 of their RBI total; it’s a near-miracle CWS is just 4 under .500

Tex – Mitch Moreland is hitting .308/.381/.506 w/8 HR, but just 19 RBI. Prob bc of 1.056 OPS w/no one on against .691 w/men on & .687 w/RISP

Cle – Cleveland is 12-15 in last month & just 4-9 since big sweep of Cincy. Sets at NYY-DET-SF-ARI-CIN & home v. NYY in next month will show a lot

LAD – Matt Kemp is on fire since 5/23: .341/.413/.829 w/6 HR, 16 RBI, 10 R, 2 SB; has played in 263 straight games… MLB’s longest. Rest easy, Cal.

Cin – Johnny Cueto is a lone bright spot in CIN rotation, but K sliding yearly down to 5.2 this yr. BABIP & LOB% fueled 2.27 ERA will rise. Sell.

Tor – Yunel Escobar is sitting comfortably atop TOR lineup & is on pace for career year: .293/.373/.451, 7 HR-24 RBI paces for 19 HR-66 RBI.

Bal – Kevin Gregg‘s weak skills (1:1 K/BB) could open the door for Koji Uehara. He hates being healthy, but 11.7 K/9 & 6.4 K/BB are great. Speculate.

Oak – Brett Anderson‘s ERA is 4.00 thru Sunday start, but 6.6 K/9, 2.4 K/BB & 60% GB rate make his a must-buy profile. Discount possible.

Bos – Overall numbers don’t show it, but Carl Crawford is red-hot the last month: .306 AVG, 4 HR, 12 XBH, 22 RBI, 20 R, 3 SB. Hard to erase ugly starts.

Bos2 – Tell a friend Adrian Gonzalez has 12 HRs & ask him to guess how many came in April. Answer is 1. See why 1st mo. is no reason to freak out?

Mil – It’s never been talent w/Rickie Weeks, only health & he’s en route to 2nd str8 huge, healthy yr: .288/.358/.500, 30 HR, 71 RBI, 19 SB, 113 R

Mil2 – Weeks played w/fire in terms of his health last yr leading baseball w/25 HBP. On pace to cut that nearly in half w/13.

Flo – Marlins are being propped up by a bullpen that features 1 arm w/an ERA over 3.86. Easing pain of Johnson out & awful back end of rotation.

Phi – Chase Utley is hitting a paltry .227/.333/.318, but 3 SBs suggest he’s healthy meaning the rest will come. I’d buy where available.

Pit – Some prospects are late-bloomers: Neil Walker was 4-time top 81 ‘spect ’05-08, debuted in ’10, now on pace for 22-109. Can’t give up.

CHC – Do not stare directly into Tyler Colvin‘s 20 HRs from ’10, it’ll distract you from .147/.220/.250 line since Sept 1. of last year.

StL – Here comes Albert Pujols: .322/.395/.504 w/5 HR, 18 RBI, 16 R & 3 SB since Cinco de Mayo. Ole!

Min – With inj.ravaging MLB, you could do worse than Alexi Casilla: .329/.406/.353 w/13 R, 5 SB & 7 RBI since May 1st. Elig. at both MI positions

KC – Until Sat. Aaron Crow hadn’t even pitched much less SV’d a gm this wk. KC has either won big (1), late (1) or lost (4) since he got CL role.

NYY – Brett Gardner is really struggling in areas he excelled in last yr: pace of 51 BB in 159 G, 79 in 150 in ’10; 28/20 SB/CS (47/9 in ’10)

LAA – Bobby Abreu has .393/.493/.547 line since May 18th, up 40 pts to .292. On pace for 27 SB, but other #s struggling. Perhaps a selling point.

Col – Troy Tulowitzki hitting .289/.362/.404, 0 HR, but jello is shaking w/noise in the distance. Brace yourself, could be a hot streak coming.

Col2 – Daily leaguers: platoon Chris Iannetta home & away for maximization of value: H-.310/.432/.676, 6 HR, 19 RBI; R-.149/.329/.209, 2 HR, 4 RBI

SF – Ryan Vogelsong stays hot w/big 2 start week: 13 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 10 K, 3 BB. Season ERA down to 1.68, 7 K/9, 3 K/BB. Hard not to buy in.

Col-SF – 10 R scored in Col-SF series; all SP went 6+ IP; all SF SP went 7+. Bullpens combined for 11 IP w/1 ER (Lindstrom today, game-winner).

Was – Jason Marquis is a fantasy baseball amusement ride, though the drops can induce vomit: ERA in 1st five-2.62, next five-6.21, last two-1.54.

Ari – Kelly Johnson was hitting .190 on 5/24. Since: .326/.436/.739 w/6 HR, 10 RBI, 15 R & 2 SB. Up to .224, on pace for 30 HR/22 SB.

TB – On Apr. 23, Sam Fuld was hitting .365/.407/.541 w/13 R, 10 SB (3 CS); since .157/.215/.240 w/8 R, 4 SB (3 CS). #bonifacioed

Sea – Brandon League since 4 gm meltdown-fest: 9 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 7 SV; tied for AL lead w/16 SV. Good luck getting that job Aardsma.

Hou – Welcome to the bigs, Jordan Lyles. Even the lowly Padres are tougher than the best AAA team: 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2nd career start

SD – Surely 3B is too thin for Chase Headley to be owned at only ~50% at the major outlets? Sure 1 HR sucks, but passable AVG & 20 SB is OK.

Atl – Freddie Freeman‘s .217/.314/.380 Apr may’ve dissuaded some, but patience has been rewarded w/.327/.378/.453 since May 1.  Power remains light, but that was expected.

NYM – Dillon Gee has been a gem for the Mets rotation this yr: 6-0, 3.33 ERA, 1.11, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB. Numbers support success, espec. in NL-Only

Thursday: 02.3.2011

Three Questions – San Diego Padres

With the 2011 Starting Pitcher Guide set to come out in a few weeks, I have a jam packed volume covering all the ins and outs of starting pitching in the 2011 season for your viewing pleasure.  Of course that doesn’t do much to address the offensive side of things so I decided to start this “Three Questions” where I will cover some key offensive issues for each of the 30 teams.  There will be more content here dealing with offense, but this is the beginning.

What happens to this offense without Adrian Gonzalez?

Oh don’t worry, new first baseman Brad Hawpe will fill in so well that you will barely notice Gonzalez left.  A .298/.393/.511 line with 31 bombs and 101 RBIs shouldn’t be a problem for Hawpe.  OK that’s obviously an egregious lie that I don’t believe in the least.  Do you want to know how important Gonzalez was to an offense that still only finished 22nd with him?  Look at this:

Gonzalez led them in five key offensive categories and no one was really close.  Chase Headley was the 2nd-highest qualifying batting average at .264, Will Venable’s 13 home runs were 2nd to Gonzalez, Headley had a whopping 58 RBIs to finish 2nd on the team, Yorvit Torrealba was 50 points behind Gonzalez with a .343 OBP, but that came in just 325 at-bats.  The 2nd-highest qualifying on-base percentage was again Headley with a paltry .327 mark.  And in the most hotly contest of the five categories, Headley finished 14 hits behind Gonzalez with 161 on the season.

Counting stats for Padres hitters are likely to be even worse than they were last year cutting into the already stunted value of the group.  Headley managed those 58 RBIs despite hitting behind Gonzalez, who was getting on base 40% of the time for him.  The team added some pieces in addition Hawpe including a brand new double play duo with Orlando Hudson at second base and Jason Bartlett at shortstop as well as former super-prospect Cameron Maybin, but the loss of Gonzalez is still a major blow to an offense that was already pretty poor.

The power-sapping ways of PETCO park are nothing new and Padres hitters have long been evaluated with that impact built in, but without their superstar cog in the middle the entire group takes another hit to their value.  The chances of the six year streak of a non-Gonzalez entity topping 100 R or 100 RBI being broken seem slim.  The last two players to do it were in 2004 when Mark Loretta scored 108 runs and Phil Nevin drove in 105.

Following up a career year with one of his worst, what’s in store for Jason Bartlett in 2011?

The 2010 season was a rough one for Bartlett especially in light of his breakout 2009 in which he hit 14 home runs, drove in 66 runs, scored 90 runs, stolen 30 bases and hit .320, all career highs.  Lucky for him, he plays shortstop which is a barren wasteland after the top tier so he will have some value no matter what.  How much exactly is going to be tied to how many stolen bases he rack up.  He had a string of 23, 20 and 30 before last year’s 11, so the ability is there and San Diego was the 6th-runningest (so surprised that didn’t get a red squiggly line under it in Word) team last year with 124 stolen bases.

Additionally, he can offer some batting average value or at least not be a drag for a team.  Last year his .254 was a drag as regression bit back hard from 2009 and instead of falling back to career norms, he was actually a bit unlucky.  He is .281 hitter for his career and there is no reason to think he shouldn’t bounce back to that in 2011 and if luck breaks his way again, it wouldn’t be tough for him to top .300 again.  So as a late round speed/average shortstop, he has some value.  As I mentioned already, counting numbers will be tough to come by on this team.  Especially for Bartlett who isn’t particularly adept at getting on base.  Though he has a career .345 OBP, it is propped up by the standout 2009 and a .367 mark in 372 plate appearances back in 2006.

One last thing to consider with him is that he has only averaged 135 games played in the last four years with a high watermark of 140 and a low of 128.  That means you’re going to need a replacement for around 27 games, or 16% of the season.  Given the dearth of talent at shortstop, this can be a problematic proposition.  His backup is likely to be Kevin Frandsen or Everth Cabrera.  You could fill one of Bartlett’s strengths depending on who fills in, Frandsen for average and Cabrera for speed.  If you’re left hitting the wire, you may find that the remains are somehow even less appealing than Frandsen and Cabrera.

Is Cameron Maybin ready to pay dividends on his blue chip prospect status?

The problem is we might not even notice if he does improve because of his home ballpark.  He has certainly proven everything he can in the minor leagues so it is time for the three-time top 8 Baseball America prospect to start showing the talent at the big league level.  At 24 with just a season’s worth of big league plate appearances (610) under his belt, even a poor 2011 wouldn’t be enough to write him off completely but it would put closer to Brandon Wood territory.

The biggest issue right now is the striking out.  He has struck out in 31% of his major league at-bats despite the significant gains in K% in the minors.  After striking out in 32% of his AA at-bats in 2008, he cut down to 20% in his first run through AAA in 2009 followed by 19% in 130 AAA at-bats last year.  Any contact would be better than striking out for Maybin at this point.  At the very least, he could maybe use his excellent speed to turn some of his groundballs into base hits.

Better pitch recognition can increase his value another way as more walks would again allow him to add value by way of his speed.  As noted in the Bartlett section above, the Padres aren’t afraid to run, but it is hard to do much running with a .302 on-base percentage.

I don’t think Maybin will magically fix the strikeout and walk issues all at once in 2011, but I think we will see incremental gains in his first full season which should yield a 20+ stolen base season and low-teens power.  You can do much worse than that for a low dollar late outfield option in NL-Only leagues.  I don’t think he is quite a dollar days guy just yet, especially if your league has any guys who love grabbing the next big thing, but his price tag shouldn’t be pushing double digits.  As a single digit buy, I would highlight him as a quality end-game play perfect for rounding out a team.