Archive for ‘Sunday Twidbits’

Sunday: 07.24.2011

Paul Podcasting on Monday

On Monday evening, I will be joining Joel Henard and filling in for Albert Lang on the Baseball Daily Digest podcast.  The show is an hour long and starts at 6 PM Central.  Plenty of topics to discuss including Desmond Jennings finally coming up, fantasy catchers, the Pittsburgh Pirates and trade deadline talk plus much more.

Another programming note: look for Sunday Twidbits on Monday again this week.

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Monday: 07.18.2011

Sunday Twidbits: July 17th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.  Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

CWS – Juan Pierre is hitting .330 the last calendar month & .300 the last 2 months. He was just 5-for-12 w/SBs in Apr, but 10-for-13 since.

CWS2 – On his July pace (4 SB in 12 G), Pierre would steal 22 more bases this yr; his value has stabilized. Buy if you need speed.

Det – Protection or regression? Alex Avila has a .161/.366/.258 in 11 July gms w/Raburn (.607 OPS), Inge (.492) & Kelly (.631) behind him.

Det2 – Avila (cont.) It’s a pretty tiny sample & protection is largely overrated, but Avila’s 9 BB & gm tapes show he’s being pitched around.

Was – Just six of Henry Rodriguez‘s 27 appearances have seen him go without a K. He has 34 in 31 IP; a nice MR option if you’re heavy on IP.

Atl – Freddie Freeman is rewarding patience hitting .289/.385/.567 w/7 HR & 22 RBI in his last calendar month & .307/.367/.524 in his last 2.

Atl2 – Freeman (cont.) On May 17th, Freeman was hitting .226/.321/.358 with just 4 HRs. I may have misjudged Mr. Freeman.

LAA – Walden has straightened out after a rough end of June & I think he will be fine, but Rich Thompson might be worth speculating on.

LAA2 – Thompson (cont.) He has 10.3 K/9 in 35 IP & he’s not Fernando Rodney. Scott Downs might be primary option, but he is their lefty RP ace.

Oak – He’s a perpetual injury risk, but Joey Devine is pitching well & could get work if another inj. risk Andrew Bailey goes down or gets traded.

Oak2 – Devine (cont.) He is getting over back spasms, but has a 2.14 ERA, 1.05 WHIP & 8.1 K/9 in 21 IP otherwise.

Oak3 – Josh Willingham (own rates: E 17%, C 34%, Y! 7%) could be dealt out of OAK which would instantly raise his value as a pwr source. Buy.

StL – Kyle Lohse has allowed <4 ER just 2x in last 7 (5.62 ERA in 42 IP) w/an UGLY 3.4 K/9. The pumpkin metamorphosis is in full force. Sell. NOW!

Cin – Ramon Hernandez sputtered a bit from mid-May to mid-June (.250, 1 HR, 3 RBI in 52 AB), but has rebounded (.327, 3 HR, 8 RBI) in last mo.

Cin2 – Hernandez (cont.) For some reason, he is very much available w/ownership rates of 17% in ESPN, 25% in Y! & 35% in CBS. Buy.

Bos – Thru 4 GS, Andrew Miller had a 3.57 ERA, but a 1.57 ERA & near 1:1 K:/B (13/11). That was v. SD, HOU, PIT & BAL-4 weaker tms.

Bos2 – Miller (cont.) Latest start v. TB came to a head: 7 ER, 2.7 IP. I never believed & 3 K in his last 3 GS assures I never will. Cut. Avoid.

TB – Sharp in his last 3 (1.96 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.0 K/BB in 18 IP), Alex Cobb has been recalled, has AL-only value immed. Monitor in mixed

Phi – Dom Brown has some post-hype sleeper value ROTW. Hit the Mendoza Line on 6/23; since-.315/.403/.407 w/12 R. Legit Pwr/Spd capability, too.

NYM – Hope you jumped on Twidbit “recommendee” Bobby Parnell a few wks back! Enough back-patting. BTW, still seeing Jonathon Niese available all over.

NYM2 – Niese (cont.) I’ll defer to this week’s Trolling the Wire for more on Niese. Buy.

NYY – In early June, Brett Gardner was on pace for 28 SBs, but he has 16 in June & July for total of 26. Great trade target if there’s need for speed. Buy.

Tor – Of course if Gardner is too expensive & you don’t need the AVG & R he brings, then you might be able to get Rajai Davis for free on some wires.

Tor2 – Rajai (cont.) He has rebounded from his horrible June (3 SB in 27 G) notching 7 SB in 14 G so far. PT is tight in TOR OF, but Davis hasn’t felt it yet.

Pit – If I’m going to back-pat when Twids hits one, gotta point out the reverse. Alex Presley was given just a tepid endorsement after Tabata injury.

Pit2 – Presley (cont.) Xavier Paul has been nicked & Garrett Jones hasn’t hit; Presley is hitting .343/.400/.522 w/4 SB, 12 R & 9 RBI. Pwr driven by 3 3B.

Pit3 – Presley (cont.) He is making a bid to take some (if not most) of Jones’ PT when Tabata returns.

Hou – Jeff Keppinger got a late start to his season (5/27), but he is AVG asset if standings are tight in that cat. Empty avg, but viable at 2B.

Cle – Michael Brantley is on pace for .276, 91 R, 21 SB, 10 HR, 65 RBI yet still has availability at all 3 outlets (Y! 42%, E 74%, C 83%). Buy.

Cle2 – Carlos Carrasco was dropped en masse after 2-start hiccup. Solid bounceback @ BAL. A matchup play who is rosterable in many formats.

Bal – Zach Britton has a 2.35 ERA & 1.12 WHIP after 10 starts, but meager 4.9 K/9 & 1.7 K/BB rates said “SELL!”; since: 6.86 ERA & 1.77 WHIP in 39 IP.

Bal2 – Britton (cont.) Oddly enough, his K/9 has risen to 6.7 during the skid, but still-awful 1.6 K/BB has been his undoing regardless of missed bats.

Flo – Doubt Leo Nunez will be dealt, but if so then Steve Cishek could get a look. Has 23 K in 22 IP  w/just 5 BB (4.6 K/BB). Deep speculation.

Flo2 – Did you cut losses on Hanley Ramirez? Hope not. Last month: .364/.451/.602 w/5 HR, 24 RBI, 19 R, 5 SB (0 CS). Might salvage after all.

Chc – Geovany Soto‘s stock has tumbled everywhere except CBS (78% owned), but 3 HR in last month boost value. Could hit 7-10 HR from C ROTW.

KC – Eric Hosmer is on a lot of re-draft wires, but K% & pwr improvement during mini-surge could reintroduce viability as CI/U type. Monitor.

Min – Brian Duensing surging w/2.70 ERA & 1.24 WHIP in last 50 IP, but 4.16 & 3.91 xFIP in Jun & Jul suggest caution. Sell in AL, Replace in mixed

Min2 – Similarly Carl Pavano on fire w/2.82 ERA & 1.12 WHIP in 61 IP, but 3.63 & 3.66 xFIP last 2 mo is worrisome. Elevated LOB% is the major aid.

Mil – HRs (2.4 per9) & BBs (4.5 per9) plaguing Shaun Marcum in last 6; could be tied to nagging injuries. I’d buy if discount is there as hip/neck are fine.

Col – Chris Iannetta has big H/R split, but flailing in Coors now, too. Since June he has 53 PA H & R: .244 & 1 HR @ hm; .143 & 2 HR on rd. Pass.

Col2 – Iannetta (cont.) Names who could be available to replace him: Mike Napoli, Ramon Hernandez, Geovany Soto, Wilson Ramos & Jonathan LuCroy.

Tex – Neftali Feliz thru 2 mo w/9 K, 14 BB in 19 IP. OH NOES! Since: 17 K, 4 BB in 18 IP. Closers are volatile, be patient w/proven ones (Marmol).

Sea – Is Blake Beavan latest useful SEA SP? Not yet: 2.70 ERA & 0.95 WHIP are “supported” by 3.6 K/9 (vomit!). It’s ALL the .190 BABIP & 89% LOB%.

SF – Madison Bumgarner has rebounded from 0.3 IP/8 ER meltdown throwing 26 IP w/2.73 ERA & 1.14 WHIP as well as sparkling 30 to 3 K/BB. Buy.

SD – Dustin Moseley has K’d >3 just four times in 18 starts which is why he has a weak 1.7 K/BB despite solid 2.9 BB/9. Pass. Drop. Cut. Never.

LAD – Longshot to close again, but Kenley Jansen has 11 scoreless IP since MLB return w/16 K. His 6 BB are still an issue 3 H says stuff is back.

Ari – Josh Collmenter‘s really lacked of Ks early (5 in first 16 IP as SP), but 6.7 K/9 & 2.7 K/BB rates since 5/29 are intriguing. Monitor.

Friday: 07.15.2011

Sunday Twidbits: July 10th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.  Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

Ed. note: I didn’t end up doing any STs during the fourth of July weekend so that was a missed week, but here are the ones from last Sunday. 

Det – Since returning from DL on June 13th, Magglio Ordonez is hitting .284/.377/.403 w/2 HR, 9 RBI, 9 R & 9 BB. Now healthy, worth a look.

Det2 – Joaquin Benoit has thrown 19 IP w/1.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 20 K & 5 BB since 5/16 meltdown when he gave up 3 ER pushing ERA to 7.98. Now 4.24.

KC – After a nice first half, Melky Cabrera‘s on pace for .293, 20-20 w/90+ R & RBI; sample is large enough for others to believe so trade ASAP.

KC2 – Melky (cont.) Doesn’t mean he can’t stay good, just that I’d rather trade the risk away in case the career yr doesn’t continue.

Oak – I mentioned Scott Sizemore about a month ago, but still widely available. In OAK: .300/.364/.489 w/4 HR, 14 RBI, 11 R in 90 ABs.

Tex – On the heels of his 7.7 IP of shutout ball w/7 K & 1 BB, it’s time to move the 7-win Matt Harrison ASAP.  Skills don’t support 3.04 ERA.

Tex2 – Not everyone will fall for him based on his ERA, but if you’re diligent you should be able to move him & improve your team.

Col – Speaking of guys to move, Todd Helton has been excellent this yr (.321/.400/.494) w/10 HR, 41 RBI, but at 37 you don’t need the risk.

Col2 – w/guys like Melky, Harrison & Helton, you’re not going to fleece someone, but it’s about shifting the risk & getting out from under it.

Was – Danny Espinosa growing or just a hot month? Thru 6/9: .219/.316/.433 w/10 HR, 5 SB; since: .288/.352(!)/.514 w/6 HR, 7 SB in 111 AB

Tor – Two additions to the Toronto OF are must pickups in most formats. Both Eric Thames & Travis Snider can be 2nd half power sources.

Tor2 – Tor. (cont.) Thames since 6/24 recall: .305/.328/.597 w/4 HR & 7 RBI in 62 AB; Snider .367/.387/.667 w/1 HR, 8 RBI in 30 AB

Cle – Jason Kipnis shouldn’t be stuck in AAA much longer. His .297/.380/.506 line w/11 HR, 51 RBI & 11 SB can help the Indians right away. Speculate.

Hou – Need a cheap MR? Try Astros’ Aneury Rodriguez. Since rejoining pen on 6/15: 12 IP, 2.31 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 10 K, 1 BB & 3 multi-IP apps.

Flo – Since reaching a season high of 4.48 ERA w/his ERA, Ricky Nolasco has a 1.41 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in his last 4 starts spanning 32 IP.

Flo2 – Nolasco (cont.) Oddly his skills have dipped during the stretch w/5.3 K/9 & 2.7 K/BB rates. He is maddening, but I still buy his track record.

Flo3 – Would you be interested in someone who has posted a 1.19 ERA, 1.19 WHIP & 6.3 K/BB in his last 30 IP? It’s Javier Vazquez. More on him this wk.

SD – Aaron Harang returned from the DL w/6 shutout, no-hit IP along w/6 K & 3 BB. He has 1.59 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 & 2.2 K/BB in last 40 IP.

SD2 – Harang (cont.) Despite his numbers, he’s on teams in just 57% of CBS lgs, 29% of Y! lgs & 15% of ESPN lgs. Pick him up.

LAD – Get on the Rubby de la Rosa train before it’s too late. Too late in NLs, but he’s most-mixed lg useful: 1.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 17 K last 20 IP

TB – If you can live w/his batting avg, BJ Upton should be a trade target as he paces toward 27 HR, 38 SB, 90 RBI & 83 R. Some will tire .239 AVG

NYY – In the last month, Eduardo Nunez is hitting .328/.369/.519 w/2 HR, 4 SB, 7 RBI & 7 R in 22 G. He will be A-Rod’s primary fill-in for next 4-6 wks.

Bal – Since June 1st, Mark Reynolds has hit .275/.400/.670 w/13 HR, 25 RBI & 22 R. He’s the AL’s Carlos Pena. You have to sit through the cold spells.

Bos – He doesn’t play anywhere near daily, but Josh Reddick is making most of his PT: .422/.471/.778 w/4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 10 RBI & 10 R.

Bos2 – Reddick (cont.) Should be owned in AL-Only & he’s worth a look in deeper mixed as he might be better than a scrub regular.

Atl – You know your season hasn’t been great when a .215 AVG over a month is a massive improvement, but that’s Dan Uggla.

Atl2 – Uggla (cont.) More importantly, he has 8 HR, 18 RBI in that last month & I would buy if the price were discounted & fair.

Phi – Antonio Bastardo is owned in just 51% of CBS lgs, 55% of Y! lgs & 87% of ESPN lgs. He’s been excellent this yr: 10.4 K/9, 2.7 K/BB; buy!

Min – I practically begged yall not to buy into Nick Blackburn. Last 3 starts: 12.15 ERA, 2.54 WHIP, 7 K & 4 BB in 13 IP. ERA up from 3.15 to 4.24

CWS – Gordon Beckham has shown himself as a 2H player so far. Since gm 81 of ’11: .371/.421/.543 in 35 AB; widely available.

CHC – Marlon Byrd is back off of the DL & widely available. He isn’t great, but he can be a batting avg asset in Chicago’s final 72 games.

Pit – Paul Maholm has a 1.79 ERA & 1.11 WHIP in last 45 IP (7 GS), but just 5.0 K/9 & 1.7 K/BB. Fortunate .239 BABIP… sell! Sell now!

Pit2 – Maholm (cont.) Selling him won’t return gold, but you are selling off his inevitable regression. You should be able to get SOMETHING!

Sea – Sea. SPs are 44, 45, 46 & 51 out of 51 in run support among qual’d AL SPs; Doug Fister‘s 3.09 is the worst in AL by 0.8 (Dan Haren).

LAA – In the last calendar month, Torii Hunter is hitting .338/.377/.523 w/3 HR, 11 RBI & 9 R in 19 G. Could be primed for a solid 2nd half.

Cin – Jay Bruce is known for Tulowitzkian hot (& cold) streaks & he just might be starting one: .444/.583/1.056 w/3 HR, 6 RBI in his last 5 G.

Cin2 – Bruce (cont.) He had hit .182/.257/.273 w/1 HR & 5 RBI in 99 AB spanning the month before his latest mini-streak.

Mil – Only one Milwaukee SP has an ERA below 5.00 so far in July (Zack Greinke, 4.50) which makes their 5-6 schedule something of a surprise.

Mil2 – Yovani Gallardo has a very appealing stat line yielding an xFIP (3.47) more than 1/2 a run lower than his 4.08 ERA. Buying opportunity?

Ari – Barring changes to the rotation, Josh Collmenter‘s next 5 starts will come against tms he’s already faced (MIL,COL,LAD,SF & HOU).  (cont.)…

Ari2 – Collmenter has a 2.97 ERA, 1.06 WHIP & 5.3 K/9 in 27 IP v. the 5; this will be a big test to see how “real” his early success has been.

StL – Chris Carpenter has a 2.89 ERA & 1.15 WHIP in his last 53 IP. The 5.9 K/9 isn’t great and he’s still allowing lots of hits; tread carefully.

NYM – Why isn’t Jonathon Niese on more tms? E-13%, Y!-34%, C-67% despite great overall #s & a 3.00 ERA, 1.27 WHIP & 8.6 K/9 the last 2 mo (63 IP)

SF – Ryan Vogelsong has a 3.38 ERA in last 3 starts, but an ugly 1 K/BB w/13 ea. (6.2 per 9) & 1.9 HR/9; overall #s might still appeal, but hurry.

Monday: 06.27.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 26th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.  Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

Ari – David Hernandez was crushed for 5 ER w/out recording an out on 6/7. Since: 8.7 scoreless IP w/9 K, 1 H, 3 BB. Nice MR option w/10 K/9. (Ed. note: The Tigers bombed him shortly after I wrote this up.  He is prone to the occasional implosion, but the numbers from implosion-to-implosion are really good at least.)

Det – Justin Verlander is 6-0 in 49.7 IP (8+/start) w/0.72 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 8.5 K/BB over his last 6 starts. He is the AL’s best.

Det2 – Al Alburquerque has stifled 21 of 22 inherited runners. A great pickup if you’re high on IP: 2.05 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 15 (!) K/9.

Col – Ubaldo Jimenez has a 3.31 ERA/1.29 WHIP since 5-17; even better 2.43/1.20 in June w/7.8 K/9 & 4.1 K/BB

Col2 – Ty Wigginton hitting .298 w/7 HR, 16 RBI & 14 R in June. Scarcely owned depsite 1B-2B-3B elig: C 63%, Y! 41%, E 62%. Must-own.

Col3 – Wiggy (cont.) He’s a fantasy Swiss Army Knife & has had 20+ HR in 4 of last 5 yrs and now in Col. How wasn’t he drafted more?

NYY – CC Sabathia was winless in his 1st 4 starts despite a healthy 2.52 ERA; on Sat. he became 1st SP to 10 W going 10-3 w/3.43 in last 13.

Oak – Hiccup or problem? Trevor Cahill was rocked in 4 straight, but has a 1.15 ERA in 16 IP w/13 K in his last 2. Just beating up the NL?

Phi – Saturday was 35th time Cole Hamels has gone 8+ IP in his career. The Phillies offense has averaged 3.3 runs per game in those starts.

LAA – Jered Weaver fell off the radar a bit after his insane April; he’s on fire again: 3-0, 1.35 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 & 3.1 K/BB in last 47 IP

LAA2 – Dan Haren gets 4.3 R/G of support, 4th-lowest in AL. One of those 3 “ahead” of him? Teammate Jered Weaver: 3.9. #neverchasewins

LAD – Dodgers haven’t scored 2+ R in an innings for 2 wks. So why did Dan Haren give their only 2 guys (Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier) anything?

LAD2 – LAD (cont.) He still won, but those two went 5-for-6 against Haren scoring all 3 of the runs he gave up. C’mon, Dan. Just face Loney.

Cin – Maybe Dusty Baker is using Chris Heisey best by rarely starting him. Starter: .225/.299/.382 in 279 PA; Sub: .356/.402/.644 in 102 PA. Odd.

Bal – Don’t confuse Jake Arrieta‘s 9-4 rec. w/success. His 1.2 HR/9 & 1.7 K/BB scream caution, his rec. is built by MLB-best 9.4 R/G of support.

Was – Roger Bernadina is worth owning (E 41%, Y! 14%, C 26%) as a pwr/spd mix. Hitting .400/.426/.644 w/3 HR & 2 SB in last 11; .333 for June.

CWS – At some point, Ozzie Guillen has to be held accountable for playing Adam Dunn v. LHP. He’s now 1-52 (.019) w/24 Ks. Let Lillibridge DH. (Ed. note: Or as reader Paul Bourdett suggested, call up Dayan Viciedo and let him take the hacks at DH against southpaws.  He is killing it in AAA.)

CWS2 – Dunn (cont.) Yes, it’s a small sample overall, but as much as Dunn is struggling, he needs some time off v. southpaws.

Bos – Andrew Miller isn’t an insta-pickup just bc he’s on Boston. He put on 10 baserunners against SD in 5.7 IP. The 6 Ks were nice, but…

Bos2 – Miller (cont.) He has done nothing to earn our trust at the MLB level. Facing Pitt today, then @HOU & v. BAL, proceed w/EXTREME caution

Pit – Jose Tabata was carted off w/an inj. on Sunday & AAA OF Alex Presley was pulled out of his gm shortly thereafter. NL-Onlys take note.

Pit2 – Presley (cont.) He could be in line for some of Tabata’s PT. The 25 y/o is hitting .336/.389/.500 w/8 HR & 18 SB.

Pit3 – Pirates (cont.) But I’d bet on Xavier Paul (speed) & Garrett Jones (power) seeing legitimate increases in their PT first.

Atl – Jason Heyward hitting .297/.381/.405 in 10 G since return from DL. Overall #s miiiight offer buying opp., espec. in non-keeper lgs.

SD – Chase Headley is still widely available & might be worth platooning on the road. Hitting .474 on latest rd trip; .304 AVG/.806 OPS career.

TB – James Shields bumps Verlander to co-best. Last 3: 27 IP (yes, 3 CGs) w/0.33 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, 8 K/9, 6 K/BB & of course 3-0. AL ASG starter?

TB2 – Nice wknd for BJ Upton in Hou: 4-11, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R, 1 SB. Hitting .297 in last 9; prob just means a 1-20 upcoming. He hates batting avg.

Hou – Matt Downs .272/.381/.556 w/5 HR in 97 PA. Rakes RHP & at home; so sit him for Clint Barmes at home v. righty. You wonder why you suck Hou?

Min – Ben Revere is the likely benefactor from Delmon Young inj. Revere hitting .284 w/11 R, 4 SB in June. Serves specific purpose & comes cheap.

Mil – Nyjer Morgan at .309/329/.471 in June, but just 1 SB. Perhaps it’s all of his XBH: 7 2B, 3 3B & 2 HR! A slightly better NL ver. of Revere.

CHC – Reed Johnson picked up where he left returning from the DL w/a .933 OPS w/2 HR & 4 RBI in 10 gm. No shallow mixed appeal, but deep & NL-Only

KC – Joakim Soria is back. His June: 12 IP, 12 K, 6 SV, 6 K/BB, 4 H. I hope you pounced on him as soon as he was cut on Memorial Day. Saw it in 3 lgs.

Tor – Edwin Encarnacion is hitting .283/.353/.522 in June w/2 HR, 3 RBI, 5 BB. Hardly overwhelming, but he quals at DH for lgs that requie true DH.

StL – The Cardinals sans Albert Pujols have not had a good week: 1-5 record, .240/.292/.373, 4.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP

StL2 – In ’10 Jon Jay hit .383/.433/.583 in 115 AB over 49 G (2.4 AB/G); Aug-Sep as a reg. (42 GS), he hit .244/.309/.314 in 172 AB over 56 G (3.3)

StL3 – Jay (cont.) Same in ’11 w/reg PT: .349/.408/.514 thru May (54 G/22 starts); .239/.276/.324 in June (22/17). Sell now while #s still high.

NYM – Daniel Murphy‘s June .318/.355/.386, overall .296/.343/.408; mostly AVG, but 2B/1B elig w/10 G at 3B, too. He’s a playing time glue guy.

Tex – Nelson Cruz is coming out of his funk: .364/.389/.818 w/6 2B, 3 HR, 8 RBI & 1 SB in his last 8. Overall #s might offer small discount. Buy.

Cle – Cle is 8-16 in June bc despite success of Masterson & Carrasco, other 3 SP have 5.32 (Talbot), 6.60 (Tomlin) & 7.62 (Carmona) ERAs.

SF – Ryan Vogelsong does not care that he is Ryan Vogelsong, still has allowed more than 2 ER just once in 13 starts. Skills remain strong, too.

SF2 – Vogel (cont.) Doesn’t mean he isn’t some to sell. 13 starts convinces ppl he’s legit, but 86% LOB% & 5.1% HR/FB = SOME regression on 1.86 ERA

SF3 – Vogel (cont.) Let’s say he ends yr w/a 3.00 ERA. He’d be 3.83 ROtW. Oddly enough, that’d be a sub-100 ERA+. 3.10+ = 4.00+ ERA

SF4 – Vogel (cont.) You’re not going to rip someone off for a 33 yr old journeyman, but any upgrade to your tm would be worth moving him. Sell.

Sea – I shy away from low-K SPs, but Doug Fister is criminally under-owned (high of 31% @ CBS): 3.13 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.9 K/BB + Safeco & great D

Flo – Mike Dunn has K’d at least 1 batter in all of his last 13 outings, but otherwise been terrible: 6.60 ERA, 1.80 WHIP, 4 HR, 18 K… ouch.

Flo2 – That’s why you never spend a lot on middle RPs, you have to be able to cut bait at a moment’s notice. Aroldis Chapman stung ppl this yr.

Monday: 06.20.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 19th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.  Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

Det – Det bullpen had 6.03 ERA on 5/22; now at 4.65 after a rebuild. In June: 2.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 , 2 K/BB in 46 IP.

Col – Charlie Blackmon has shown speed right away w/5 SB in 12 G, but he has some pop as evidenced by .572 AAA SLG. Think Shane Victorino 07-09.

Pit – Garrett Jones is hitting .394 in June (13-33) & has started 6 of last 8 GP. Might finally have his job back; cheap pwr source

Pit2 – Why is Jones doing a French Stewart impersonation in his ESPN pic? http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28763/garrett-jones

Cle – Carlos Carrasco is on fire the last month: 2.8 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 5.8 K/9, 2.4 K/BB. High GB% mitigates low K. Also 7 K/9, 3.4 K/BB in last 3.

Tor – Since breaking his L-streak, Jo-Jo Reyes is 3-1 w/3.21 ERA. Don’t be fooled though, 1.32 WHIP & 1.5 K/BB thanks to ugly 4.8 K/9.

Tor2 – Reyes was better when he was losing: 6.8 K/9 and 2.9 K/BB in first 49 IP of season. Avoid for now.

Cin – Preached caution w/Johnny Cueto few wks back for a few reas. incl. low K/9. Still lucky, but 6.5 K/9 & 3 K/BB in last 4. Still sell, but less worried.

LAA – Angels have a league-worst 4 (!) HR in June so far. 28 players have 4+ HRs. It’s a small miracle that they’re even 5-10 this month.

NYM – Jonathon Niese has allowed >2 ER just once since April 14th (2.65 ERA in 71 IP, 6.9 K/9) after allowed 5+ in 2 of his first 3 starts.

NYM2 – Need a cheap RP fill-in? Bobby Parnell has been excellent since returning from the DL: 1.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 12.9 K/9, 5.5 K/BB in 8 IP.

Tex – Thru May Neftali Feliz had 9/14 K/BB in 19 IP w/10 SV. In June so far, he has 8 K, 1 BB in 7 IP w/4 SV. Appears to have course-corrected himself.

Atl – If you took both Jonny Venters & Craig Kimbrel to lock up ATL SVs, you’d have a 1.73 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 101 K, 6 W & 21 SV in 78 IP.

Atl2 – Vent/Kimb cont. That’s as many Ks as Tim Lincecum, better ERA than any SP, a WHIP equal to Dan Haren & 4th-most Ws… oh and most SVs in MLB.

Bal – Adam Jones is having a strong yr, but perennially wears down w/12 & 14 of his 19 HR the last 2 yrs in the 1st half. Has 10 so far. Sell?

Was – Michael Morse‘s Apr: .211/.253/.268 & cut in many lgs. Whoops!! Since: .364/.418/.729 w/12 HR, 33 RBI & 24 R. DON’T give up after 1 month.

Mil – Randy Wolf is the ultimate matchup guy w/8 starts of 65+ game scores & 6 sub-50s. Some of his best: Pit, Hou2x, Chc, Phi; worst: Cin, StL

Bos – Marco Scutaro is worth a pickup, espec. w/Jed Lowrie on the DL. He’s hitting .371/.421/.486 in June since returning. Nice Runs Scored option.

Flo – All but 3 regulars are at .254 or below in June for the Marlins; only 1 SP w/an ERA below 4.82 and that’s how you get a 1-17 record.

TB – Alex Cobb struggled in 1st 2 MLB starts w/7 ER & 8 BB in 11 IP, but he’s looked sharp since: 1.96 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 6.0 K/9, 3.0 K/BB in 18 IP.

TB2 – Johnny Damon‘s pace of .277 AVG, 18 HR, 74 RBI, 16 SB, 74 R is somehow not good enough for Y! (54%) & CBS (80%) leaguers. Check your wire.

SD – I don’t care if he has 2 W all yr, how is Tim Stauffer so avail. (C 57%, Y! 40%, E 17%)? On pace for 207 IP w/7.1 K/9 & 3.2 K/BB. Buy NOW!

Min – No Twins pitcher w/5+ IP has an ERA over 3.27 in June. Francisco Liriano‘s last 33 IP (thru Sun.) 1.91 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, 2.5 K/BB.

KC – Alcides Escobar is hitting .431/.453/.569 in last 14 G w/7 SB. Cheap speed at thin position if you need someone: E 47%, C 33%, Y! 19%.

StL – Since his Coors Collapse on 5/28, Jaime Garcia has 2.96 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 & 4.5 K/BB in 24 IP. In other words, it was a blip.

Hou – Wandy Rodriguez allowed 4-5-7 in 3 of 1st 5 GS (5.40 ERA). Since: 1.31 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB in 48 IP; 8 K/9 in last 26 IP.

Hou2 – Wandy (cont.) He’s not 100% rostered at any of major outlets, so don’t assume he’s owned in your league: E 95%, C 90%, Y! 77%

Hou3 – Not sure why Mark Melancon is so avail. He’s been great & Brandon Lyon is now out for yr: E 77%, Y! 50%, C 41%. Free saves!

LAD – Only 1 Dodgers SP has an ERA below 4.41 (Kuroda) & only 2 are below 5.52 (Lilly) thus a 5-11 June record for the tm.

LAD2 – One elite, one brand new, but I’d buy either Clayton Kershaw (5.95) & Rubby de la Rosa (5.52) if any was selling based on June swoon.

SF – Madison Bumgarner had a 7.79 ERA & 2.06 WHIP on 4/23. Since then he’s been among MLB’s best: 2.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 4 K/BB in 67 IP

SF2 – MadBum (cont.) Not 100% owned at 3 major outlets: E 92%, C 88%, Y! 67%. Check your lg to be sure. 3-8 W-L may offer discount via trade

Oak – A perennial 2H player, Coco Crisp is on pace for 47 SB along w/modest but useful 77 R, 50 RBI & 5 HR.

Oak2 – Crisp (cont.) Career .276 hitter, hit 8 HR in 75 G last yr. could surge in midsummer. Still available in many lgs. Buy even if just for the SBs.

Phi – Good SP is infectious as Vance Worley‘s 3.41 ERA is highest in the non-Blanton division of Philly SPs. Hamels-Halladay-Lee have 9+ K/9. Sick

Sea – Ichiro coming out biggest slump of his career? 7-game hitting streak w/6 multi-hit gms: .467/.484/.667 and 4 SBs. Could be in for absurd 2H.

CWS – Alexei Ramirez needed 6-for-13 rally at end of Apr. to finish .265/.318/.382. Rarely does well early. Since: .318/.380/.468.

CWS2 – Alexei (cont.) Know who you’re drafting. Career OPS in Apr: .580; only other month below .780 OPS is Sept at .705, he hates cold weather.

Ari – Daniel Hudson had 5.64 ERA in Apr; skills said much better. Skills win! Since: 7-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 4.5 K/BB. 6+ IP every GS.

NYY – Curtis Granderson‘s career yr is fueled by improvements v. LHP: .277/.337/.651–career .221/.281/.376. 20 HR v. LHP in 1st 5 yrs; 9 in ’11.

Chc – Carlos Marmol since 6 ER in 0.3 IP disaster: 1.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 13 K/9, 4.3 K/BB in 9 IP. Was a blip, but nothing to worry about at all.

Chc2 – Is Doug Davis a home spot starter? 2.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.9 K/9 in 23 IP incl. start v. Yankees. The 3.9 BB/9 suggests some caution.

 

Monday: 06.13.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 12th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Sea – Michael Pineda has faced 3 tms a 2nd time w/a 4.66 ERA & 1.19 WHIP, yet still a 10 K/BB. ERA elevated by DET start. Don’t worry.

Det – Austin Jackson starting to drive the ball more w/2 2B & 4 3B since being given a June 1st off-day: .372/.426/.605 during the stretch.

Det2 – Protection or coincidence? Brennan Boesch hitting .307/.350/.551 w/all 8 of his HR & 25 of 34 RBI in 3 spot ahead of Miggy.

Ari – Willie Bloomquist = old Sam Fuld. This is why you don’t buy into these guys & sell em ASAP: .190/.227/.214, 0 SB since return from inj.

Flo – Chris Volstad has a 4.29/7.56 Hm/Rd ERA split, but has only allowed >3 once at home. 6.9 K & 2.4 K/BB = worthy home spot-starter.

Cle – 5/22 I said: J.Tomlin has largest ERA-FIP diff in MLB. He will implode bc .175 BABIPs & 85% LOB%s don’t last. Trade now… for anything.

Cle2 – Since 5/22: Josh Tomlin has 8.61 ERA, 1.78 WHIP in 23 IP allowing 6 ER in last 3 starts & 8-9-10-12 H in the 4 start stretch. Hope you sold.

NYY – A-Rod was hitting .259/.359/.463 a month ago w/5 HR. Since 5/12: .310/.355/.569 w/8 HR, 18 RBI & 3 SB… stop writing him off, folks.

Chc – The Chicago Empty Batting Avgs: Fukudome-Castro-Barney-Aramis all hitting .286 or better. All are pacing 10 or < HR & <75 RBI. Sell.

Phi – Top 3 SP (Halladay-Hamels-Lee) continue to lead Philly (5-0 in Jun) as finally whole lineup has struggled (.639 OPS-24th rk’d) so far.

Bos – The Red Sox have scored more runs in 10 June gms, 87, than Seattle scored in 26 May gms. Bos 9-1 in June despite 1 SP w/sub-4.50 ERA.

Bos2 – Dustin Pedroia sure isn’t playing like he’s injured: .389/.522/.583 w/10 RBI & 7 R in June. Only 1 hitless gm, 4 multi-hit ones.

Tor – Not even sure how Kyle Drabek is in the majors at this point. Has 3+ BB in 13 of 14 starts & more BB than K in 73 awful IP.

Tor2 – By the way, Brad Mills has a 2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in hitting-crazy Las Vegas w/8.3 K/9 in case you’re looking for obvious replacement.

Tor3 – Eager to see how many K lovers hold strong w/Brandon Morrow. ERA now 5.63 w/boom or bust season: 4 4+ ER starts; 4 2< ER starts.

TB – On April 28th DH, Ben Zobrist had 2 HR, 10 RBI. Since: 2 HR, 11 RBI in 38 G. Hitting .386/.460/.591 in June. Another HR surge upcoming?

Bal – Mark Reynolds is a must-own. 3B is paper thin & power is light league-wide. On pace for 30-90-10(sb), you eat the .203 avg for that.

NYM – Hope you got Angel Pagan when he was reco’d in 5/29 Twids. His own rates were ESPN 35%, CBS 65%, Y! 36% then.

NYM2 – Pagan (cont.) Rates are way up as he’s remained on fire since return: .349 avg, 5 sb, 9 r, 7 rbi in 15 g. Big help to middle of Mets lineup.

Pit – Horrid start buried James McDonald‘s ERA (10.12 after 4 GS), but 2.84 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 & 2.0 K/BB in 51 IP (9 GS) since. Buy.

Atl – A modest hot streak for most could be a start of something for Dan Uggla after big wknd: 4-6, 3 BB, 4 R, 2 RBI, 1 HR in the #2 hole.

Hou – How good has SP been in ’11? Bud Norris‘ 3.67 ERA is 100 ERA+. With a 9 K/9, he’s a must-start even on cusp on below avg ERA, though.

Oak – Not yet an all-format must-start, but Scott Sizemore adds depth to ugly 3B wasteland & he’s hitting early on w/OAK: 6-19 in 5 G w/HR & 4 RBI.

CWS – Phil Humber‘s value gets a major boost if recent K stretch is at all legit. 5.5 season K/9, but 7.0 in 22 IP across last 3 GS. Monitor.

Tex – Derek Holland has skills worth betting on despite modest season-long #s. 3 ugly, 3 great in last 6 incl. 7.9 K/9 & 2.9 K/BB in 40 IP.

Tex2 – Holland (cont.) HRs killing him in latest 6 starts having allowed 2 in ea. of 3 blowups & 0 in 3 gems. 24 y/o so more ups & downs coming.

Min – Francisco Liriano‘s last 4: 26 IP, 29 K, 1.38 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 2 W. Still leery, but confidence growing as 3 were rd starts, 4th was v. TEX.

StL – Jon Jay hitting .309 w/some pwr & speed (pacing 10 hr/12 sb). Held .350 BABIP for 105 G in ’10 so maybe .353 this yr can hold. 50%+ avail.

Mil – Prince Fielder has been insane the last month: .330/.458/.742 w/11 HR, 29 RBI, 23 BB to 11 K… SO locked in. Mil 22-7 during stretch.

LAD – Why is Rod Barajas owned so scarcely across all 3 major outlets? On pace for 19 HR. Doesn’t have enough AB for his .233 AVG to hurt much.

Col – CarGo hitting .452/.485/.710 in 7 gms as leadoff hitter incl. 4 straight multi-hit gms in LAD series. Perhaps the jump-start he needs.

LAD-Col – 63 runs scored in 4 gm LAD-Col series, yet just 11 scored in first 4 inn. of all 4 gm. Sweet lives, relievers… 2.6 R/IP in 20 IP from 5th on.

KC – Alex Gordon still on pace for career yr, but it’s built mostly on hot April. Might be getting going for June: .273 AVG & .377 OBP.

LAA – Mark Trumbo has flaws (.299 OBP), but pacing for 27 HR & 15 SB w/potential OF elig. based on lg (6 GP). His value lies in OF, not 1B.

Was  – In 13 GS, Jordan Zimmermann has re-faced opp. 4x. Just an oddity.  Has allowed >2 ER once since May 1st (3 ER @ ATL, but also 11 K).

SD – It’s a whopping 4 gms, but what stands out about Anthony Rizzo early on is the patience. 5 BB & 4.6 pit/PA in first series ever.

SD2 – Rizzo (cont.) He also went 3-for-10 w/a 2B, 3B and HR. Great debut, hope it lasts for the highly touted prospect.

Cin – Scott Rolen carrying an ugly .240/.291/.380 line in 150 AB. Still nice leather, Juan Francisco toting .309 AVG, .819 OPS in AAA.

SF – Twidbits Curse? Touted Tim Lincecum in 5/22 ST’s. Since: 7.66 ERA, 1.59 WHIP in 22 IP. Still 19 K, 2.7 K/BB & 93 MPH FB velo. intact.

Monday: 06.6.2011

Sunday Twidbits: June 5th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Det – Austin Jackson was sub-.200 on 5/6, hitting .284/.346/.432 w/2 HR, 9 RBI, 14 R, 9BB, 6 SB since. DET 15-9 during stretch; 15-18 before.

CWS – Gordon Beckham, Adam Dunn & Alex Rios are a combined .205/.291/.324 w/14 HR & 55 RBI in 581 AB

CWS2 – 5 players have more HR than the trio & 4 are within 10 of their RBI total; it’s a near-miracle CWS is just 4 under .500

Tex – Mitch Moreland is hitting .308/.381/.506 w/8 HR, but just 19 RBI. Prob bc of 1.056 OPS w/no one on against .691 w/men on & .687 w/RISP

Cle – Cleveland is 12-15 in last month & just 4-9 since big sweep of Cincy. Sets at NYY-DET-SF-ARI-CIN & home v. NYY in next month will show a lot

LAD – Matt Kemp is on fire since 5/23: .341/.413/.829 w/6 HR, 16 RBI, 10 R, 2 SB; has played in 263 straight games… MLB’s longest. Rest easy, Cal.

Cin – Johnny Cueto is a lone bright spot in CIN rotation, but K sliding yearly down to 5.2 this yr. BABIP & LOB% fueled 2.27 ERA will rise. Sell.

Tor – Yunel Escobar is sitting comfortably atop TOR lineup & is on pace for career year: .293/.373/.451, 7 HR-24 RBI paces for 19 HR-66 RBI.

Bal – Kevin Gregg‘s weak skills (1:1 K/BB) could open the door for Koji Uehara. He hates being healthy, but 11.7 K/9 & 6.4 K/BB are great. Speculate.

Oak – Brett Anderson‘s ERA is 4.00 thru Sunday start, but 6.6 K/9, 2.4 K/BB & 60% GB rate make his a must-buy profile. Discount possible.

Bos – Overall numbers don’t show it, but Carl Crawford is red-hot the last month: .306 AVG, 4 HR, 12 XBH, 22 RBI, 20 R, 3 SB. Hard to erase ugly starts.

Bos2 – Tell a friend Adrian Gonzalez has 12 HRs & ask him to guess how many came in April. Answer is 1. See why 1st mo. is no reason to freak out?

Mil – It’s never been talent w/Rickie Weeks, only health & he’s en route to 2nd str8 huge, healthy yr: .288/.358/.500, 30 HR, 71 RBI, 19 SB, 113 R

Mil2 – Weeks played w/fire in terms of his health last yr leading baseball w/25 HBP. On pace to cut that nearly in half w/13.

Flo – Marlins are being propped up by a bullpen that features 1 arm w/an ERA over 3.86. Easing pain of Johnson out & awful back end of rotation.

Phi – Chase Utley is hitting a paltry .227/.333/.318, but 3 SBs suggest he’s healthy meaning the rest will come. I’d buy where available.

Pit – Some prospects are late-bloomers: Neil Walker was 4-time top 81 ‘spect ’05-08, debuted in ’10, now on pace for 22-109. Can’t give up.

CHC – Do not stare directly into Tyler Colvin‘s 20 HRs from ’10, it’ll distract you from .147/.220/.250 line since Sept 1. of last year.

StL – Here comes Albert Pujols: .322/.395/.504 w/5 HR, 18 RBI, 16 R & 3 SB since Cinco de Mayo. Ole!

Min – With inj.ravaging MLB, you could do worse than Alexi Casilla: .329/.406/.353 w/13 R, 5 SB & 7 RBI since May 1st. Elig. at both MI positions

KC – Until Sat. Aaron Crow hadn’t even pitched much less SV’d a gm this wk. KC has either won big (1), late (1) or lost (4) since he got CL role.

NYY – Brett Gardner is really struggling in areas he excelled in last yr: pace of 51 BB in 159 G, 79 in 150 in ’10; 28/20 SB/CS (47/9 in ’10)

LAA – Bobby Abreu has .393/.493/.547 line since May 18th, up 40 pts to .292. On pace for 27 SB, but other #s struggling. Perhaps a selling point.

Col – Troy Tulowitzki hitting .289/.362/.404, 0 HR, but jello is shaking w/noise in the distance. Brace yourself, could be a hot streak coming.

Col2 – Daily leaguers: platoon Chris Iannetta home & away for maximization of value: H-.310/.432/.676, 6 HR, 19 RBI; R-.149/.329/.209, 2 HR, 4 RBI

SF – Ryan Vogelsong stays hot w/big 2 start week: 13 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 10 K, 3 BB. Season ERA down to 1.68, 7 K/9, 3 K/BB. Hard not to buy in.

Col-SF – 10 R scored in Col-SF series; all SP went 6+ IP; all SF SP went 7+. Bullpens combined for 11 IP w/1 ER (Lindstrom today, game-winner).

Was – Jason Marquis is a fantasy baseball amusement ride, though the drops can induce vomit: ERA in 1st five-2.62, next five-6.21, last two-1.54.

Ari – Kelly Johnson was hitting .190 on 5/24. Since: .326/.436/.739 w/6 HR, 10 RBI, 15 R & 2 SB. Up to .224, on pace for 30 HR/22 SB.

TB – On Apr. 23, Sam Fuld was hitting .365/.407/.541 w/13 R, 10 SB (3 CS); since .157/.215/.240 w/8 R, 4 SB (3 CS). #bonifacioed

Sea – Brandon League since 4 gm meltdown-fest: 9 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP, 7 SV; tied for AL lead w/16 SV. Good luck getting that job Aardsma.

Hou – Welcome to the bigs, Jordan Lyles. Even the lowly Padres are tougher than the best AAA team: 4 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2nd career start

SD – Surely 3B is too thin for Chase Headley to be owned at only ~50% at the major outlets? Sure 1 HR sucks, but passable AVG & 20 SB is OK.

Atl – Freddie Freeman‘s .217/.314/.380 Apr may’ve dissuaded some, but patience has been rewarded w/.327/.378/.453 since May 1.  Power remains light, but that was expected.

NYM – Dillon Gee has been a gem for the Mets rotation this yr: 6-0, 3.33 ERA, 1.11, 6.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB. Numbers support success, espec. in NL-Only

Monday: 05.30.2011

Sunday Twidbits: May 29th

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Bos – Bad starts hide improvement, but good starts hide regression. Jed Lowrie hitting .237/.302/.333 w/0 HR & 9 RBI in last mo. despite BOS surge

Det – In 102 G w/DET, Jhonny Peralta is hitting .275/.339/.455 w/16 HR & 66 RBI. On pace for career year: 25 HR-92 RBI, would be 4th 20-HR season

SD – One regular topped .263 in Apr.; 4 have in May. One regular topped 10 RBIs in Apr.; 3 have in May. Baby steps for the SD offense.

Was – Sitting on the good side of a platoon, Laynce Nix is hitting .304 w/7 HR (pace for 22) & is vastly under-owned: ESPN 18%, CBS 12%, Y! 8%

Phi – Cliff Lee allowed 3+ ER 12 times last year only 2 in his first 11 starts; he’s already had 7 such instances in his 1st 11 starts of ’11.

Phi2 – Lee (cont.) If those 7 starts w/3+ ER allow even a 1% discount on him in trade, I’m pouncing. 5.4 K/BB FTMFW!!!

NYM – Angel Pagan had 11 H in 19 G before inj., 4 in 3 G since returning. A must-own in scarce offensive environs. ESPN 35%, CBS 65%, Y! 36%

CWS – No longer buying Adam Dunn at cost, must have a discount now. He’s 0-for-36 v. LHP, has homerless streaks of 11 & 14 G.

Tor – Speaking of pwr/spd OF, Corey Patterson is positively on fire (9-12, 2 HR, 4 RBI last 2 G). Not a .301 hitter, but offers enough to be owned.

Ari – Chris Young is on pace for 89 RBI primarily bc of batting order (4/5 most of seas.), but unlikely to hold those spots w/.287 OBP.

Ari2 – Young (cont.) I’d be looking to move him hoping that his nice pwr is enticing & no one notices the near 4% drop in BB.

Ari3 – D’Backs had lg’s worst bullpen ERA by more than a run (5.74 to 4.72) in ’10; down to 3.40 in ’11 & a big reason they’re currently in 1st.

Hou – JA Happ has a 3.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP in 35.3 IP for May. Also has a nice 8.2 K/9, but sub-2.0 K/BB & still a bit homer-happy; tread carefully.

Cle – Slow starts mask improvement: Shin-Soo Choo hitting .313/.400/.453 in last 17; still has lame .250/.335/.380 line. Remains a full on buy.

TB – He can’t hit LHP & his BABIP is .424 meaning Matt Joyce is in for MAJOR regression. To hit .300 in 510 AB, he’d hit .271 rest of the way.

TB2 – Joyce (cont.) To hit .285, he’d hit .251 the rest of the way. On pace for 17 HR, 57 RBI ROtW; enough O to take the AVG hit via trade?

TB3 – Evan Longoria still hitting just .237/.351/.430 w/3 HR yet still doesn’t have 100 ABs. I’d take him in any trade even w/out a discount.

SF – Surprised that Andres Torres is more owned in ESPN lgs (std. is 10tm) than other outlets. A must-own again w/full health.

SF2 – Torres (cont.) Own rates E 53%, C 43%, Y! 32% despite 16 HR-26 SB in ’10. Even better in OBP lg, but .265ish AVG won’t kill you in ’11.

Mil – Panic surrounding Yovani Gallardo proved worthless. He has a 1.29 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 8.7 K & 5 W in last 5 starts. #relax (h/t – @fantasy411)

LAA – Russell Branyan has smacked 56 HRs the last 2 yrs, more than Longo, Cano & Cruz among other big names. Worth a spec on LAA.

Min – Justin Morneau heating up? AVG .283 since 5/6 w/7 multi-hit gms v. 5 0-fers. *Can’t* be at full price at this pt; perhaps time to invest.

StL – Lance Berkman has dipped in May as expected, but not a complete bottom out: .298/.482/.474 in 83 PA… OBP league MONSTER!

Col – Eric Young Jr. called up after .363/.462/.544 (SLG built on 8 3B) w/17 SB in 42 at AAA. Finally ready to deliver more than cheap SB?

KC – Joakim Soria allowed any ER in 10 of 66 G in ’10, never >2; yielded ER in 7 of 22 this yr, allowing 2+ twice. He is broken.

Tex – Remember when Michael Young‘s preseason trade drama was sullying his draft stock a bit? .335 AVG, 33 RBI. Lengthy track record>>Spring Drama

Bal – Contenders might deal Zach Britton to kpr-hungry owner for big return. ERA still <3, but GB rate can only mask 1.6 K/BB & <5 K/9 for so long

Oak – Josh Willingham is on pace for 27 HR, 109 RBI yet ugly .244 AVG leaves him wildly underowned. ESPN 10%, CBS 32%, Y! 16%

Flo – Could just be a lost season for Hanley Ramirez. His .221/.315/.358 May actually qualifies as a *better* month; now possibly injured on Sunday

LAD – A big 3-5 w/HR, 3 RBI & 2 R day might be exactly what Rafael Furcal needs to turn his season around. Widely avail. @ paper-thin SS.

NYY – Robinson Cano tied his career high of 5 SB on Sunday. On pace for Utleyesque (circa 2005-2008) .281-92-32-108-16 season w/AVG upside. Buy.

Sea – Brendan Ryan is 17-for-30 during 9 G hitting streak w/7(!) multi-hit gms pushing his AVG to .279. Passable MI fill-in for AL-Only lgs.

Pit – Young O was supposed to improve PIT outlook for ’11, but keeping w/unpredictable ’11, it’s been their lg avg pitching keeping them afloat.

Pit2 – Paul Maholm‘s K rate is above 6 for 1st time since ’08, but K/BB is still <2 & 3.18 ERA/1.18 WHIP are built on .256 BABIP. Be careful.

CHC – All the closer turmoil in MLB has covered Carlos Marmol‘s success as perhaps lg’s best. Best ERA, 2nd K, t5th SV & 6th WHIP. #beastmode

Cin – Oft-hurt Rolen & oft-sucky Renteria could open PT for prospect Todd Frazier who hit .287/.364/.557 w/11 HR, 33 RBI & 6 SB in 47 G at AAA

Cin2 – Frazier (cont.) Speculate, but ONLY if you’re patient. Dusty Baker loves his veterans so PT might start out slow for the 25-year old.

Atl – The rebirth of Jair Jurrjens‘ GB rate (50%; 40, 43 last 2 yrs) is nice, but I’d trade him & his 5.2 K/9, 86% LOB% & 4% HR/FB rates ASAP

Monday: 05.23.2011

Sunday Twidbits: May 22nd

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Cin –  Jay Bruce is 12-for-26 w/3 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R in his last 7; hitting .319 w/7 HR in May. Hope you were patient thru slow April (.237, 4 HR).

Cle –  Asdrubal Cabrera has 200% more HRs (9) than last yr (3); topped last yr’s RBI total (29 in 97 G) w/his 31st in his 44th gm.

Cle2 –  A.Cabrera is the latest member of the Paul Sporer Year Early Team; loved him for a breakout. I’m tellin ya, my ’11 rosters=’12 cheatsheets

Cle3 –  Josh Tomlin has the largest ERA-FIP disparity in MLB. He will implode bc .175 BABIPs & 85% LOB%s don’t last. Trade now… for anything.

NYM –  Carlos Beltran hitting .281/.380/.534 is = or > career #s & on pace for 28-88. Scared of inj? Trade for full value as #s warrant nice return.

NYY –  Brett Gardner was hitting .145 on Apr 28 & popping on wires; hitting .369/.455/.492 w/14 R, 11 RBI, 3 SB and 1 HR since.

NYY2 –  Gardner (cont.) – Cut guys after 62 AB & you deserve to lose… regardless of lg. format.

Hou –  With Astros O exceeding expectations, Michael Bourn‘s value is higher than usual. Elite SBer (59 pace), but also on pace for 100 R.

Tor –  Need Ks but can afford a bit of an ERA hit? Buy Brandon Morrow. He’s -0.10 on ERA, but huge in Ks, espec. if cat. is bunched in your lg.

Tor2 –  Jays getting .186/.242/.291 at 3B w/25th-worst D. Brett Lawrie & his .346/.403/.633 line w/11 HR, 29 XBH & 9 SB CAN’T be far off. Speculate.

TB –  Might consider selling Jeremy Hellickson & his wobbly 3.18 ERA. Built upon sub-2.0 K/BB, .250 BABIP & 6% HR/FB (43% FB); 3.81 FIP = danger.

TB2 –  Hellickson (cont.) – If you’re contending in kpr lg w/cheap Helly, even better to trade bc you could net an absolute mint.

Flo –  Leo Nunez has been arguably baseball’s best closer this yr. in a yr when it’s been espec. rocky. His skills last yr. predicted future success.

Tex –  Elvis Andrus was 32-47 SB last yr. along w/.301 SLG causing some to sour on the 22 y/o SS. He’s 15-15 SB & on pace for 55, 3 < than Hanley.

Phi –  Dom Brown punished AAA SPs going .341/.431/.537 in 11 G. Could be worth spec in offense-starved ’11 despite sub-.200 car. avg (in 66 AB).

Det –  DET bullpen is toting a 6.03 ERA w/only Valverde doing well. Schlereth has 3.00 ERA, but sub-1.0 K/BB & 6.58 FIP. Need Benoit to compete.

Pit –  Andrew McCutchen is hitting .311/.378/.554 in May w/3 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R & 3 SB. Slow April is behind him.

Was –  Jason Marquis has rejoined us on Earth in May w/6.26 ERA; control has left him (3.1 in May; 1.3 in Apr). I never believed, no reason to now.

Bal –  Nick Markakis is hitting .329 in May & .433 in last 7. .278 OBP (B.Roberts-.273) out of leadoff spot has stifled RBI opps during stretch.

Col –  Jhoulys Chacin has carried ’10 skill over (same K/BB), added a ton of GB (47% to 59%) & become COL ace. ERA might tick up a bit from 2.66.

Mil –  Jonathan LuCroy isn’t widely owned at any outlet yet has an .863 OPS w/4 HR & 18 RBI in 100 AB; .320 AVG WILL sink, but pwr worth spec.

LAD –  Don’t let a pair of stars fool you, LA is a must-start against for even your marginal SP. NL’s worst offense in May; 2nd-worst all yr by R.

Chw –  Matt Thornton has allowed 1 ER in 5.3 IP across 6 APP in May. Santos has just 1 meltdown, but mark my words: Thornton will close again in ’11.

StL –  Jaime Garcia‘s emergence & rise of Yadier Molina, Jon Jay & Allen Craig on O has more than made up for Waino loss; resulting in NLC lead.

KC –  May has brought Jeff Francoeur‘s descent into Francoeurdom (.239); though HRs stick & could lead to 6yr high. Has real value in pwr-less 11.

Atl –  Remember when Nate McLouth was “back”? Was hitting .287/.384/.417 thru 5/4. Hitting .143/.226/.196  w/1 HR, 1 RBI & 4 R since.

Atl –  If McLouth has a 30+ G stretch of .287 during the season, no one bats an eye, but to start seas. some think it means more. It doesn’t.

LAA –  Jordan Walden has labored thru May (6.75 ERA in 8 IP) w/3 BSv, but also 3 SV & 9 K. Only lefty Scott Downs has excelled, but unlikely for role.

Oak –  Trevor Cahill has allowed >2 ER just once. K rate has come back down (6.3 K/9 in May), but still capable of big K gm (5-7-1-6)

SF –  Remember worrying about Tim Lincecum? Velo is highest in 3 yrs (93), ERA career best (2.06), allowed 0-1 ER in 6 of 10 GS. Remains elite.

Sea –  After posting an 8.56 ERA in first 3 starts, Erik Bedard has a 1.97 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in last 5 w/7.3 K/9 & 2.4 K/BB. Widely available.

SD –  SD has 4 RP w/21+ IP of 1.16 WHIP or better and 2.6 K/BB or better. Doesn’t incl. Bell & Gregerson. Expect major activity at trade deadline.

Min –  Jason Kubel is the only Twins player with 50+ AB w/an OPS over .708 which also means he’s the only one w/an OPS higher than Joey Bats’ SLG!

Ari –  Ryan Roberts is on pace for 25 HR, 21 SB, 81 R and 74 RBI yet still not fully owned. Check your wire. Better than 1.0 K/BB is impressive, too.

Chc –  Matt Garza has used massive K & GB surges (11 K/9, 48% FB-both car. highs) to post solid 3.72 ERA, but HR correction (2.4 HR/FB%) will sting.

Chc2 –  Garza has a sky-high BABIP (.362) bc of terrible IF defense, but regression of BABIP & LOB% will only balance HR/FB at best. Hold, don’t buy

Chc3 –  After another big April, Kosuke Fukudome doing his usual slide back. .226 in May with 1 (!!!) RBI. He had 2 in April. That’s hard to do.

Bos –  Some people hate owning DH/U-only guys so David Ortiz & his 32 HR pace (& .294 AVG) could be had at a nice price. Inquire.

Monday: 05.16.2011

Sunday Twidbits: May 15th

On the Sunday before last, I started something called MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Starting with yesterday’s, I will post each week’s Twidbits here at paulsporer.com for anybody who misses them on Sunday and just for a quick and easy reference later on instead of having to scroll through my feed days later.  They are grouped by the Sunday game matchups.

KC – Mike Montgomery was thrashed on Sat – 11 R (8 ER) in 4.3; 25 BB in 42 IP

Det – Brad Penny has 1 BB in last 20 IP; career high 54% GB in ’11

Sea – Brandon League‘s last four ERA has gone from 2.08 to 7.31 3: IP, 10 ER

Cle – Cleveland scored a lg high 141 R in Apr (5.4/gm). Their OPS is down from .791 to .670 in May & they are scoring 3.6 R/G. Easy w/Oct. plans.

StL – Chris Carpenter has allowed 40 H in last 4 starts; Josh Johnson has allowed 32 in 8 starts

StL 2 – Albert Pujols is hitting .302 w/6 HR and 20 RBI in the last calendar month

Cin – The Reds C combo (Ramon Hernandez/Ryan Hanigan) has 8 HR, 27 RBI & .321/.373/.526 line; hands down the best backstop production in baseball.

Cin 2 – Drew Stubbs has been Matt Kemp-lite: R 30/23, HR 7 ea., RBI 20/25, SB 13/12, AVG .276/.336

Phi  – Buoyed by a return in his BABIP, Jimmy Rollins is hitting .279 along w/a career high .362 OBP, but last yr’s power outage remains (.377 SLG)

Atl – Martin Prado has 8th-most RBI in baseball (27); far & away the most for a leadoff hitter (Brian Roberts, 19)

Flo – Florida’s Gaby/LoMo 4-5 combo is hitting .332/.418/.572 w/12 HR, 37 RBI & 32 R even w/LoMo playing just 17 G so far.

Was – Jayson Werth‘s .232 AVG is the best qualifying AVG on Wash. Only one Nats hitter w/80 AB holds an OPS over .752 (Nix, .892).

Bal – SSS caveats, but JJ Hardy has two 6 G set this yr. .200/.294/.400 in his 1st, then .435/.480/.696 since returning. A must-add at thin SS.

TB – Ben Zobrist only has 1 HR, 2 RBI since his crazy DH on Apr 28th, but he’s hitting .360/.468/.540 w/6 2B and 11 BB.

NYM – Carlos Beltran has matched or exceeded performance from ’10 in 64 G playing just 37 so far in ’11. Same R, 2 more 2B, 1 more HR, 3 fewer RBI

NYM 2 – Most importantly, Beltran’s .294/.384/.587 line is well above last year’s .255/.341/.427 line.

Hou – After four 6 IP starts (Apr 9-26), Bud Norris has gone 7+ in last 3 in an effort to keep his fate away from NL’s worst ‘pen (5.25 ERA).

Pit – Jose Tabata has 21 walks in 147 PA (14.1%) & is just 7 away from ’10 mark of 28 in 441 PA. 45 SB pace is legit as AVG will rise soon, too.

Mil – Ryan Braun is pulling out of 15-gm minislump (.193)-hitting .389/.522/1.056 w/2 HR, 10 RBI & 6 R in last 5 gm.

Tor – Jose Bautista has 7 HR in last 30 AB; .400/.486/1.167 w/11 RBI, 9 R… Bondsian treatment upcoming? TOR #4s have .734 OPS, 20th in MLB

Tor 2 – More Bautista, his .868 *SLG* would be the 17th best *OPS* in the AL. :drool: He’s prob <$5 keeper in most lgs.

Min – Minnesota’s .617 OPS is easily a league worst; 6 batters w/75+ PA have better *SLG* (Bautista, Berkman, Morrison, Sizemore, R.Hernandez & Granderson). Joyce’s .615 is close.

SF – Just two healthy regulars (Sandoval on DL) w/70+ PA have an OBP above .316 (Posey .347, Burrell .350).  Alas, elite pitching staff has propelled them atop tough division (-2 run diff.)

Chc – Kosuke Fukudome‘s trend of hot April followed by precipitous drop in May is holding to form. His OPS has drop .130 pts; he’s empty OBP.

LAA – Scioscia has split time equally b/w Hank Conger (.788 OPS) & Jeff Mathis (.499 OPS) & while it’s sub-optimal, it’s better than expected.

Tex – Adrian Beltre‘s power is intact w/same ISO as ’10 (.233), but disgustingly low .218 BABIP is holding his AVG to .252; target for AVG upside.

SD – Will Venable on pace for 45 SB, but empty otherwise. Rise in MLB SB (0.67/G v. 0.61 in ’10) makes him less valuable, even w/high pace.

Col – Seth Smith hitting .250 v. LHP (up from ugly .154 clip in 55 PA last yr), but he’s still best deployed in daily lgs v. RH starters.

Chw – Alexei Ramirez is once again heating up after an ugly April w/.790 OPS in May. Career .840 OPS in June (.820)/July (.860)… buy immediately.

Oak – Batting 3rd often Conor Jackson may chase down a line near his 06-08 peak, maybe: .290, 10 HR-65 R-65 RBI-12 SB. *Cheap* AL-only usefulness.

Ari – Ugly .233 BABIP is saddling Chris Young w/.219 AVG & masking improved K rate & career-best ISO. Regression will improve SB opp; buy now.

LAD – Apart from Matt Kemp & Andre Ethier, the rest of the Dodgers are hitting .230/.282/.320. They’re tied w/Bautista w/16 HRs in 1057 AB!!!

Bos – A month ago Adrian Gonzalez was hitting .244 w/1 HR & 7 RBI; since then .357 w/8 HR & 27 RBI, leads AL in RBI & on pace for 36 HR.

NYY – Despite Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada & Nick Swisher being useless, NYY is pacing the lg w/859 RS (41 more than BOS).