Posts tagged ‘Dominic Brown’

Monday: 05.23.2011

Sunday Twidbits: May 22nd

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season.  It’s a simple exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer).  Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once.

Cin –  Jay Bruce is 12-for-26 w/3 HR, 6 RBI, 6 R in his last 7; hitting .319 w/7 HR in May. Hope you were patient thru slow April (.237, 4 HR).

Cle –  Asdrubal Cabrera has 200% more HRs (9) than last yr (3); topped last yr’s RBI total (29 in 97 G) w/his 31st in his 44th gm.

Cle2 –  A.Cabrera is the latest member of the Paul Sporer Year Early Team; loved him for a breakout. I’m tellin ya, my ’11 rosters=’12 cheatsheets

Cle3 –  Josh Tomlin has the largest ERA-FIP disparity in MLB. He will implode bc .175 BABIPs & 85% LOB%s don’t last. Trade now… for anything.

NYM –  Carlos Beltran hitting .281/.380/.534 is = or > career #s & on pace for 28-88. Scared of inj? Trade for full value as #s warrant nice return.

NYY –  Brett Gardner was hitting .145 on Apr 28 & popping on wires; hitting .369/.455/.492 w/14 R, 11 RBI, 3 SB and 1 HR since.

NYY2 –  Gardner (cont.) – Cut guys after 62 AB & you deserve to lose… regardless of lg. format.

Hou –  With Astros O exceeding expectations, Michael Bourn‘s value is higher than usual. Elite SBer (59 pace), but also on pace for 100 R.

Tor –  Need Ks but can afford a bit of an ERA hit? Buy Brandon Morrow. He’s -0.10 on ERA, but huge in Ks, espec. if cat. is bunched in your lg.

Tor2 –  Jays getting .186/.242/.291 at 3B w/25th-worst D. Brett Lawrie & his .346/.403/.633 line w/11 HR, 29 XBH & 9 SB CAN’T be far off. Speculate.

TB –  Might consider selling Jeremy Hellickson & his wobbly 3.18 ERA. Built upon sub-2.0 K/BB, .250 BABIP & 6% HR/FB (43% FB); 3.81 FIP = danger.

TB2 –  Hellickson (cont.) – If you’re contending in kpr lg w/cheap Helly, even better to trade bc you could net an absolute mint.

Flo –  Leo Nunez has been arguably baseball’s best closer this yr. in a yr when it’s been espec. rocky. His skills last yr. predicted future success.

Tex –  Elvis Andrus was 32-47 SB last yr. along w/.301 SLG causing some to sour on the 22 y/o SS. He’s 15-15 SB & on pace for 55, 3 < than Hanley.

Phi –  Dom Brown punished AAA SPs going .341/.431/.537 in 11 G. Could be worth spec in offense-starved ’11 despite sub-.200 car. avg (in 66 AB).

Det –  DET bullpen is toting a 6.03 ERA w/only Valverde doing well. Schlereth has 3.00 ERA, but sub-1.0 K/BB & 6.58 FIP. Need Benoit to compete.

Pit –  Andrew McCutchen is hitting .311/.378/.554 in May w/3 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R & 3 SB. Slow April is behind him.

Was –  Jason Marquis has rejoined us on Earth in May w/6.26 ERA; control has left him (3.1 in May; 1.3 in Apr). I never believed, no reason to now.

Bal –  Nick Markakis is hitting .329 in May & .433 in last 7. .278 OBP (B.Roberts-.273) out of leadoff spot has stifled RBI opps during stretch.

Col –  Jhoulys Chacin has carried ’10 skill over (same K/BB), added a ton of GB (47% to 59%) & become COL ace. ERA might tick up a bit from 2.66.

Mil –  Jonathan LuCroy isn’t widely owned at any outlet yet has an .863 OPS w/4 HR & 18 RBI in 100 AB; .320 AVG WILL sink, but pwr worth spec.

LAD –  Don’t let a pair of stars fool you, LA is a must-start against for even your marginal SP. NL’s worst offense in May; 2nd-worst all yr by R.

Chw –  Matt Thornton has allowed 1 ER in 5.3 IP across 6 APP in May. Santos has just 1 meltdown, but mark my words: Thornton will close again in ’11.

StL –  Jaime Garcia‘s emergence & rise of Yadier Molina, Jon Jay & Allen Craig on O has more than made up for Waino loss; resulting in NLC lead.

KC –  May has brought Jeff Francoeur‘s descent into Francoeurdom (.239); though HRs stick & could lead to 6yr high. Has real value in pwr-less 11.

Atl –  Remember when Nate McLouth was “back”? Was hitting .287/.384/.417 thru 5/4. Hitting .143/.226/.196  w/1 HR, 1 RBI & 4 R since.

Atl –  If McLouth has a 30+ G stretch of .287 during the season, no one bats an eye, but to start seas. some think it means more. It doesn’t.

LAA –  Jordan Walden has labored thru May (6.75 ERA in 8 IP) w/3 BSv, but also 3 SV & 9 K. Only lefty Scott Downs has excelled, but unlikely for role.

Oak –  Trevor Cahill has allowed >2 ER just once. K rate has come back down (6.3 K/9 in May), but still capable of big K gm (5-7-1-6)

SF –  Remember worrying about Tim Lincecum? Velo is highest in 3 yrs (93), ERA career best (2.06), allowed 0-1 ER in 6 of 10 GS. Remains elite.

Sea –  After posting an 8.56 ERA in first 3 starts, Erik Bedard has a 1.97 ERA & 0.97 WHIP in last 5 w/7.3 K/9 & 2.4 K/BB. Widely available.

SD –  SD has 4 RP w/21+ IP of 1.16 WHIP or better and 2.6 K/BB or better. Doesn’t incl. Bell & Gregerson. Expect major activity at trade deadline.

Min –  Jason Kubel is the only Twins player with 50+ AB w/an OPS over .708 which also means he’s the only one w/an OPS higher than Joey Bats’ SLG!

Ari –  Ryan Roberts is on pace for 25 HR, 21 SB, 81 R and 74 RBI yet still not fully owned. Check your wire. Better than 1.0 K/BB is impressive, too.

Chc –  Matt Garza has used massive K & GB surges (11 K/9, 48% FB-both car. highs) to post solid 3.72 ERA, but HR correction (2.4 HR/FB%) will sting.

Chc2 –  Garza has a sky-high BABIP (.362) bc of terrible IF defense, but regression of BABIP & LOB% will only balance HR/FB at best. Hold, don’t buy

Chc3 –  After another big April, Kosuke Fukudome doing his usual slide back. .226 in May with 1 (!!!) RBI. He had 2 in April. That’s hard to do.

Bos –  Some people hate owning DH/U-only guys so David Ortiz & his 32 HR pace (& .294 AVG) could be had at a nice price. Inquire.

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Saturday: 06.12.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/12/10 Show Notes

Here are the show notes from the Saturday, June 12th episode:

Trolling the Wire Pickup

Jason Hammel, SP, Colorado Rockies – He has been EXCELLENT in his last four starts and in five of six since returning from the disabled list. Now might be the last chance to get him as he owned the Toronto Blue Jays tonight going eight shutout innings allowing just three hits and walking three others while striking out six. Taking out his May 21st start at Kansas City, Hammel is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his 34 innings with 7.6 K/9 and a 3.6 K/BB ratio. Even leaving the start in only takes his ERA to 2.41 and actually lowers his WHIP a tick to 1.07 while the K/BB ratio also moves up slightly to 3.9.

He was solid in 2009, though mostly an NL only play with a 4.33 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 176.2 innings. He had a huge home/road split going 3-3 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 81.2 innings at Coors Field while putting together a 7-5 record with a 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road.

The oddest thing about the severe split was that his strikeout-to-walk rate was significantly better at home. This year, he has reversed the split statistically with the better record, ERA and WHIP at home, but the better strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road. That said, he is pitching well enough that I would start him anywhere right now. Last year, avoiding Coors was the right play, but there isn’t enough data to buy into a home/road split with Hammel right now. He’s proven he can pitch on the road and this year he appears to have corrected the home woes making him a full-time option in deeper mixed league formats as well as all NL-Only leagues.

The Minor Leaguer Strategy

Some of the strategies I will discuss on this show include one I learned from Mike Siano of MLB Network’s Fantasy 411 show. He brought it up last year and what he does is picks up a hot minor leaguer on Thursday when fewer teams are playing and just holds the guy through the weekend in hopes of him getting called up. If he’s not called up by the new week’s deadline, he cuts ties and tries it again next week. This landed him Tommy Hanson in one of his league’s last year and Mike Stanton this year. Employing the strategy would’ve also gotten you Carlos Santana and Buster Posey, too.

In both cases, the young catchers received what essentially boils down to votes of non-confidence. Their front offices said they were still working on important aspects of their game and would not be called up all that soon. And in both cases, they were called up shortly thereafter. Posey came on a Saturday in late May and Santana was called up just yesterday on a Friday. Now in any only league with a reserve or keeper list, neither of these guys would be found on the wire, but they were available in a lot of mixed leagues because the roster spot was too precious to hold open for them.

The next players I would recommend trying this strategy with are Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alvarez and Philly’s Dominic Brown. Pittsburgh knows the future is now and their lineup is already chocked full of youngsters especially after they recently called up Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln. Alvarez can’t be far off. He’s has a .291/.378/.551 triple slash line with 12 home runs and 51 RBIs. Andy LaRoche just doesn’t appear to be as good as his minor league numbers suggested. He’s hitting .240 with three home runs and 12 RBIs in 167 ABs so there is no reason for him to block Alvarez much longer.

Brown is a bigger gamble because he is only in AA right now, but so was Stanton. Brown is hitting .311/.381/.568 with 10 home runs, 36 RBIs and 9 stolen bases in 190 at-bats so far. When you add that to his 37 games at AA last year, he’s hitting .297/.376/.472 with 13 bombs, 56 RBIs and 17 stolen bases in 337 at-bats. At the very least, he seems ready for a promotion to AAA. But with the Phillies struggling to get any consistency at the dish and Raul Ibanez a major part of those problems, it wouldn’t be farfetched to see the Phils promote Brown to the majors. After all, there is very little chance that Jayson Werth will be resigned next year and Brown is the heir apparent. Perhaps they could play together for three and a half months before the baton is passed entirely.

Jason Castro is another name that leapt to mind. Houston is awful. Their catching situation is awful and it’s about time they infuse some young talent into their team.

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