Posts tagged ‘Miguel Cabrera’

Tuesday: 03.5.2013

They Could Also Trade Miguel Cabrera for Nick Punto…

A tidbit out this morning from MLB Trade Rumors talks about how the Tigers are now looking for a closer via the trade market because SURPRISE SURPRISE their entirely unproven rookie who spent 32 seconds at Triple-A and has all of his pitches guided by Apple Maps (I’ve used this joke ~718 times now) isn’t panning out. Who could’ve possibly guessed that this wouldn’t work?! I personally feel they have several worthy options in-house already including Octavio DotelJoaquin Benoit, and the best of the bunch in my opinion Al Alburquerque, but manager Jim Leyland seems to favor Phil Coke over all of them and now going outside is an option. I’m not one of those guys who thinks I could be an elite GM off of the street tomorrow and I love Dave Dombrowski, but I don’t understand the thinking there. How was there no contingency for Bruce Rondon and why are none of these hard-throwing studs the team already has an option? You were OK going with someone whose never been in the majors, but Al-Al can’t get a look? His stuff is straight up NSFW!

This part of the news item from MLBTR especially killed me:

closertrade

Don’t you dare trade a high upside 24 year old potential stud for a freaking closer. Yeah I’m sure teams would line up around the corner to get Porcello for a closer. The Dodgers would also move Nick Punto for Miguel CabreraAndrew Bailey. GTFOHWTS. To be fair, he didn’t say Bailey for Porcello, but just GTFOH with Bailey no matter what. He pitches 30 innings a year.

You better get a helluva lot more than that back if Porcello is the centerpiece of a trade. Honestly, this situation sets up perfectly to go by committee, but Leyland is a bit more old school about the closer’s role so he’d probably just want one guy. Coke could be nasty against teams like the Royals and Indians, both of whom have several lefties. Like I said, I trust DD to make the right move. I would definitely be interested in any of the Nationals guys or I guess I should either because they aren’t trading Rafael Soriano five minutes after signing him. So Tyler Clippard or Drew Storen would look great in the 9th inning for the Tigers, but if the price is too high just stay in-house. And for the love of beagles, do not sign Jose Valverde.

 

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Monday: 02.25.2013

Today Was a Good Day

Neck-deep in the SP Guide so no time to post much today, but I do have three things worth sharing.

First, if you follow me on Twitter, you know I love Jennifer Lawrence (who doesn’t?). So here’s essentially a primer on her awesomeness courtesy of Jezebel. She looked wonderful at the Oscars last night:

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Edit to add this 26 Faces of Derp that my friend sent me shortly after I posted. This link crystallizes the point from the first link that she’s perfect because she’s not.

And then there was this:

craigHR

That was his day today against the Astros. Wrench got his rake on.

And then finally:

(courtesy of FanGraphs.com)

Miguel Cabrera destroying Jonathan Papelbon‘s life. I’m just not a Papelbon fan on any level whatsoever so to see my favorite team crush him today was great. Jeff Sullivan over at FanGraphs broke it down.

Only Jennifer Lawrence can top Allen Craig AND Cabrera at this site.

Friday: 02.8.2013

Top 10 Third Basemen Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will continue the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will air both the third base and shortstop shows on Friday evening. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air.

This is not a fantasy list!!

Both Kyle Seager and Brett Lawrie were heavily considered, but in the end they had to be left off this year. I think both will take a step forward in 2013, but not enough to merit a spot. Seager specifically has to combat Safeco Field where he was 200 OPS points worse last year (632 to 835) and I’m not sure the moved fences are going to make that much of a difference. Lawrie was just edged out by #10.

THE LIST

10. Pablo Sandoval (SF) – Two straight years shortened by injury is worrisome, but he looked plenty healthy in the World Series (that jerk!).

9. David Freese (StL) – More than adequately followed up the World Series generated hype with his best season yet. It also happened to be his first full season. There probably isn’t much growth left at 30 years old, but he should sustain in 2013.

8. Chase Headley (SD) – A jump from 4 to 31 home runs is excellent, but how sustainable is it? The power surge came out of nowhere, but Headley as a remarkably talented player isn’t new. He completely understands what Seager is dealing with in Safeco.

7. Martin Prado (ARI) – He was inexplicably included in MLBN’s LF list given the precedent they set with Shin-Soo Choo as he will be a third baseman this year with the D’Backs. A bit underrated because he doesn’t do any one thing extremely well, but instead holds his own in every facet of the game adding up to a damn fine player.

6. Ryan Zimmerman (WAS) – Essentially lost the first three months to injury. Sure, he was playing, but he wasn’t himself carrying a sub-700 OPS through June and even a week into July. That he ended at 824 tells you how great he was the rest of the way.

5. Aramis Ramirez (MIL) – One of the more underrated players in the game in my opinion. He is a fantastic hitter who has been below league average just twice since becoming a full-time player in 2001. He’s a capable third baseman, too.

4. David Wright (NYM) – Simply one of the best in the game. He does it all and he’s still just 30. He really cut into his strikeout rate last year, too, hopefully that’s a skill that has returned because the three years of 20+ percent wasn’t serving him too well.

3. Evan Longoria (TB) – We know he’s a superstar, we’ve seen it, but we haven’t seen that transcendent year yet as his last two have been cut short by injuries. It’s coming.

2. Adrian Beltre (TEX) – It’s so close, but his defense doesn’t do enough to make up the gap between he and #1. My little love letter to him was part of the Spring Training Countdown.

1. Miguel Cabrera (DET) – Far from the best defender at the position, but easily the best hitter. Plus he wasn’t the overwhelming disaster on defense that most people expected. There may be no finer hitter in all of baseball.

What do you think? Any major misses?

Friday: 02.11.2011

Daily Dose – February 11th

A link-less, abbreviated Dose heading into the weekend as I drop some first base-related knowledge bombs on y’all:

Knowledge Bomb 1: A couple days ago, I released my top 25 catcher rankings to kick off my positional rankings.  Let’s continue our way around the diamond and head over to the ultra-deep first base.  On the offensive side of things, first base is hands down the deepest position with several superstars and plenty of talent to go around.  The best way to utilize the depth is to also grab your corner infielder (in leagues that use the spot) from this pool.  Some feel that the depth at first base allows you to wait on the position altogether, but I don’t think that is the right play at all.

I think you should be ready to double and perhaps triple dip (1B, CI, DH) into the plentiful bounty of first base.  There are other strategies to be employed, but my feeling is that with the excess of power potential at the position compared with the dwindling power supplies in the league at large, why not maximize the position and its four-category contribution: power (HR, RBI, R and AVG as each HR contributes a hit, too)?

Even if you played up position scarcity and chose a shortstop in the first round and an outfielder in the second round (it’s thinner than you think, folks), you will still have stud potential available in the next two or three rounds.  Let me show you what I mean (guys who have dual-eligibility at first base aren’t going to be included in the actual top 25 as they don’t have nearly the value at first that they do at their normal position.  That means there won’t be any Victor Martinez, Buster Posey, Pablo Sandoval, etc.. Kevin Youkilis will show up because he won’t start the season with 3B eligibility after playing just 2 games there last year.):

  1. Albert Pujols
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Joey Votto
  4. Mark Teixeira
  5. Kevin Youkilis
  6. Adrian Gonzalez
  7. Prince Fielder
  8. Adam Dunn
  9. Ryan Howard
  10. Kendry Morales
  11. Justin Morneau
  12. Paul Konerko
  13. Billy Butler
  14. Derrek Lee
  15. Gaby Sanchez
  16. Adam LaRoche
  17. Aubrey Huff
  18. Ike Davis
  19. Carlos Pena
  20. Lance Berkman
  21. Kila Ka’aihue
  22. Justin Smoak
  23. James Loney
  24. Daric Barton
  25. Matt LaPorta

Overvalued: Ryan Howard – this one is relative as I still think he is plenty valuable as a major power source, but I’m not sure he returns to his truly elite power self as some of the warning signs are to be taken seriously.  He’s been going off the board as the 5th or 6th first baseman in a lot of industry mock drafts that I have seen and his ADP (average draft position) is 6th and 7th at Mock Draft Central and Couch Managers, respectively.  I’ve got him 9th, so it’s not a huge dip, but I wouldn’t make him down for 40-140 automatically in 2011.

Undervalued: None – no one being seriously overlooked, at least not by more than a slot or two which isn’t enough to get up in arms.  There is some value at the position because the depth pushes some guys down, but no one is being criminally passed over in lieu of lesser options.

Target: Kendry Morales – Yes, he is coming off of the big leg injury, but that isn’t something that will sap his power or hamper him at all this year.  He had a breakout 2009 and was in the midst of an excellent follow-up in 2010 when the accident happened, I expect him to pick up right where he left off and continue as one of the best first basemen in the league.  Even if you already locked up an elite first baseman in the first or second round, there would be nothing wrong with coming back in the fifth round and slotting Morales’ 30-home run power into your corner infield spot.

Best of the Rest: Adam Lind – he doesn’t yet qualify at first base in standard league formats, but as his assumed position for Opening Day, your league may allow you to draft him there.  Even if that isn’t the case, he will earn his eligibility there quickly and he has elite power potential with the ability to hit .275+ yet he is going behind LaRoche and Pena (who he is a rich man’s version of) according to current ADP numbers.  If he were first base eligible right now, I would slot him between Konerko and Butler.

Rookie to Watch: Freddie Freeman – He strikes me as James Loney-esque right now lacking enough power to be a starting first baseman.  He could be a .280 hitter with mid-teens power, though, which is still worth rostering even in mixed leagues given the late round cost attached.  He’s really the only rookie 1B with a chance to start in 2011.

Knowledge Bomb 2: There were 13 first basemen to hit at least 20 home runs and drive in at least 80 runs:

  • 10 of the 13 scored 85+ runs
  • 5 of the 13 scores 100+ runs
  • 6 of the 13 hit .290+
  • 10 of the 13 hit .260+ (a .260 AVG will cost a team just .002 in team AVG over a full season)
  • 4 of the 13 chipped in 7+ stolen bases (Votto [16] & Pujols [14] doubled the contribution)

Knowledge Bomb 3: Check out the home run season totals at three key thresholds broken down by position:

Few leagues use each outfield position individually, but even if I had lumped all three together the point of first base’s power prowess would have still held.  You need three to five outfielders in all leagues whereas you need just one first baseman (but could feasibly roster up to three with corner and DH).  First base is the only elite power source on the diamond.  If you leave your draft or auction with Billy Butler (who I really like, so don’t get me wrong there) as your starting first baseman, you have messed up and you will likely be struggling for power all year long.

I will reiterate that you needn’t take a first baseman in the first or even the second round to cash in on the power surplus.  So if you wanted to go shortstop and third baseman to attack some of the scarcity around the infield, that would be a feasible strategy and you would still have plenty of power first basemen available to you in the third and fourth rounds.  However, if you’re looking at a blank 1B spot on your roster in the back end of the fifth round, chances are you are well behind your leaguemates at the position.

Monday: 02.7.2011

Daily Dose – February 7th

Today is being unofficially tagged as the official start of baseball as it marks the end of football for… who knows?  For me the baseball season never really ends.  The Hot Stove and offseason is enough to keep my baseball juices flowing even after the playoffs end.  I don’t hate football or anything like that.  I fully understand the game, have a rooting interest in both the pro and college games, but it’s easily #2 to baseball for me.  So those who are turning the page on football to focus their attention baseball are merely joining me and others who are entrenched in baseball year-round.  Before we turn that page, let’s start the Dose with a little Super Bowl coverage:

The commercials have by and large been a major dud the last four or five years as the ad execs appear to have just mailed it in anymore and decided to aim only at the lowest common denominator.  I expected the same this year, but I was pleasantly surprised when the best of bunch wasn’t just the least annoying work of the night, but rather legitimately quality work.  As a native Detroit resident, I’m partial to the Chrysler ad with Eminem and that ended up as my favorite of the night:

I could understand how those from Detroit might not enjoy it as much as me and Michigan brethren, but I was surprised that there was actually some legitimate backlash against the spot.  Of course the loudest critic I saw of the ad also thought the Motorola ad for their fake iPad was good so perhaps commercial critiquing isn’t their strong suit.

I also enjoyed what seems to be the overwhelming fan favorite of the night drawing off of the early week buzz it got by releasing before the Super Bowl, the Darth Vader/Volkswagen commercial.  During the game was first time I had seen it and I definitely enjoyed it.  It worked very well even as a 30-second spot, but there’s a full minute one if you haven’t seen it:

And just so this doesn’t become a complete recap of all the commercials everyone has already seen, two others that I really enjoyed were the NFL Fans one and the Bridgestone Reply All.  I was really surprised that the Reply All ad ended up being for Bridgestone, but I guess they were going for straight humor regardless of how it related to their product.

One more video before I get into some actual baseball stuff at the BASEBALL by Paul website.  I will admit out front that I don’t find Kenny Mayne particularly funny.  I used to enjoy him on SportsCenter to the point where I still use some of his catchphrases, but his brand of humor is pretty much one note and wears quickly.  All of that said, I loved his Super Bowl Mayne Event about Mike McCarthy.  Of course, it is entirely because of Matt Damon.  Just another reason why he’s my favorite actor.

And now for some baseball:

Dirk Hayhurst is one of the more popular ballplayers around thanks to his Bullpen Gospels which I believe started out as a blog and eventually become a book (which I own, but have yet to read).  His Twitter, The Garfoose, is pretty popular just for the unique name, but also because he has brought his blogging goodness to the 140-character format.  I believe he is scheduled to be on the Jonah Keri Podcast on Tuesday, too.  But I especially enjoyed his 10 Commandments for Social Media for Professional Athletes.   There’s a lot of wisdom to be found within those commandments, especially in light of how many athletes have thoroughly embarrassed themselves or outright buried themselves on the medium.

Razzball has released their Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Players for 2011.  Surprisingly, Albert Pujols does not top the rankings.  I’m 100% fine with their top guy.  I loved their outlook on the ultra-popular Rockies so far this offseason, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez as well as their thoughts on Matt Kemp.  Of course they were WAY too high on Ryan Howard for my tastes so there is give and take throughout the list.

Even if you are not big into prospects, I encourage you to check out Project Prospect’s Top 100 Prospect List released today.  It is a very handy fantasy tool if your league drafts minor leaguers, but also all fantasy players should be up on the next wave of talent.  It’s basically the last bastion of knowledge in which one can gain an edge on their opponents.  And it’s not like the window for it will close because prospecting is far from an exact science.  Adam Foster (@AdamWFoster) and his crew are doing excellent work on the prospecting front over at PP and I highly recommend you check them out.

Speaking of prospects, NBC Hardball Talk reports that Toronto’s Kyle Drabek may not have a firm innings cap placed on him this season.  You may recall last year that there was a lot of talk around San Diego placing a cap on Mat Latos’ innings.  It likely caused him to be much cheaper in drafts and auctions than if news like this had come out or if nothing at all had been said.  Instead, everyone was so worried about his season ending at 150 innings that they waited too long or pass altogether.  He ended up throwing 185 brilliant innings for a competing Padres team.  Bet on the talent and let the playing time factors play out as the season progresses.

And finally, in what has unintentionally become my Baseball Prospectus Plug O’ the Day, I suggest you hightail it over there as fast as you can because if you had reservations about paying, you can get it all for free today and see what I’ve been talking about all this time.  The free preview coincides with the release of their PECOTA Projections.

Tuesday: 01.20.2009

Top 24 First Basemen: 12-1

Here is the completion of my top 24 first basemen for 2009.

Part 1

12. Carlos Pena, 31, Tampa Bay Rays – There was a group of people that believed Pena would be a flop after his huge 2007 season. After his first half, they were looking spot on, but he became a catalyst for the Rays’ second half run en route to a 20 home run performance. Pena is your regular WYSIWYG kind of guy and you can just about bet on .250/30/100 for the foreseeable future. OBP leaguers give Pena a boost with his stellar walk rate increasing his value markedly. Pena is the kind of guy that is skipped over round after round because there isn’t much perceived upside with him, but 2007 proved that he can get on a roll and have a top tier season.

11. Derrek Lee, 33, Chicago Cubs – EVERY capsule about Lee this season immediately references 2005 and I’m afraid I can’t break the trend. That season is now clearly an outlier that will never be reached again. He might still have another 30-home run outburst in his bat, but realistically he’s a mid-20s home run hitter with big average and big runs & RBIs totals. He used to be a perennial double-digit basestealer, but his past two full seasons have yielded just six and eight, respectively. Still, you like the added steals from an unexpected source. Lee’s name usually combines with memories of 2005 to take him off the board well before he should so make sure you avoid that pitfall and don’t pass up better production with lesser names.

10. Joey Votto, 25, Cincinnati Reds – He had a Derrek Lee-lite season last year with depressed totals in runs scored & driven in thanks to his spot in the lineup and a lesser lineup than Lee’s Cubs. He actually bounced all around the lineup, but the 7-hole was his home most often. He will assuredly move up this season which will allow him to be the full version of Lee, but likely cheaper since he isn’t as well known… yet. What makes him better than Lee is that he is on the upswing while Lee has plateaued. With a great home stadium, he should still manage the mid-20s power despite such a high groundball rate (44%). The upside is a .300-90-30-100-10 season so don’t be afraid to go the extra dollar to get him.

9. Adrian Gonzalez, 27, San Diego Padres – Can you imagine if he was still in Texas? Instead he’s stuck in the anti-Coors which severely caps his ceiling. After hitting 21 home runs through June, he managed just 10 across July and August as the Padres played 32 of their 55 games at home. That said he is still a bankable 30-100 hitter with a nice batting average. He has dropped yearly against lefties which keeps him from a perennial .300, but his .280 is still quite useful. It appears as though the fences will be moved in at Petco which can only help Gonzalez in his quest to tame the stadium, but pay for 30-100 and if you get the 2008 bonus again, enjoy it.

8. Kevin Youkilis, 30, Boston Red Sox – Here is why I don’t think the 13 home run increase from Youk was a fluke: his walk rate fell by 3% and I believe a lot of that was him going for solid pitches that he ended up being able to do a lot with earlier in the count. Known as the Greek God of Walks, I think in past seasons he was waiting for the perfect pitch or just taking a walk. To wit, he had 15 home runs after a 1-0 count against just seven in 2007. I feel like another 25+ home run season rests on Youk’s shoulders as he decides whether or not he wants to take that approach again this season. As part of that lineup, his counting stats will be excellent as well. He’s one to chase.

7. Justin Morneau, 28, Minnesota Twins – The home runs per flyball rate dropped well off of his career norms so it cut into the home run totals, but the 97 runs, 129 RBIs and .300 batting average helped alleviate the sting. This is a guy that is getting better and becoming an elite producer at first base as seemingly no one notices. With three straight seasons of 590+ at-bats owners can have confidence that he will always be out there for them. With a correction in the hr/f rate, he could repeat the 2008 season with six or seven extra home runs.

6. Prince Fielder, 25, Milwaukee Brewers – The 50 home runs from 2007 was supported by an unsustainable hr/f rate (24%). The 46% clip at which he hit flyballs was unprecedented before and unmatched after which also aided the drop in home run output. Even still, Fielder is a legitimate power source nearly guaranteed for a mid-30s home run output with a real shot in any given year to get back to 50. To have full seasons of 28, 50 and 34 home runs entering your age 25 season is truly remarkable. It is not unrealistic to imagine sustainable growth, but set your expectations for 35-110 to prevent yourself from overpaying.

5. Lance Berkman, 33, Houston Astros – Don’t bring up Berkman’s name around head-to-head fantasy players. He had a disgusting .365-72-22-68-12 first half of the season followed by a dismal .252-45-7-38-6 second half. That enormous drop-off prevented Berkman from reversing a declining home run trend that started back in 2006. Don’t buy the 2008 speed for 2009, but this is still an excellent skillset capable of .300-30-100. He will offer 6-8 stolen bases and should score at least 100 runs with Carlos Lee and Hunter Pence behind him. The second half might have left a sour enough taste in your league to depress Berkman’s value relative to other studs, bid accordingly if you’re in such a league.

4. Mark Teixeira, 29, New York Yankees – He has plateaued at 30-100 since the monster 43-home run season back in 2005, but combined with a reliable .300 average and a ton runs makes him an elite commodity. Heading to New York should bode well for both the runs scored and runs driven in totals, while the new Yankee Stadium remains an unknown in terms of its affect on home runs. His new residence is likely to drive the price up, but don’t get caught up in the hysteria and treat like anything but the 4th-best first baseman in the league. It doesn’t get much more reliable than Teixeira so there is nothing wrong with making a part of your team’s foundation.

3. Ryan Howard, 29, Philadelphia Phillies – Howard is as elite as it gets when it comes to power production. The batting average has left something to be desired since the MVP campaign, but when you are getting those home run and RBI totals, it is hard to complain. A sharp drop in walk rate didn’t help much when he was in prolonged slumps, but that should return in 2009. He is quite streaky so H2H-leaguers beware when bidding. The fact of the matter is he has 58, 47 and 48 home runs in his past three seasons with a ton of RBIs and about 100 runs scored per as well. All of that without being a complete liability in batting average helps make Howard one of the best of the game.

2. Miguel Cabrera, 26, Detroit Tigers – If I put Cabrera ahead of Albert Pujols, it would look like little more than homersim, so I avoided the temptation. Well that and I’m not entirely sold that he belongs there so I wasn’t going to do it just for the sake of doing it. He absolutely dominated the league in the second half of 2008 and it clear that he is fully acclimated to the American League now. What is the ceiling for this guy? He has increased his home run and RBI totals yearly since 2006 and he could be headed for another jump after last year’s 37/127 effort. Make no mistake; he is a late first round talent for 2009.

1. Albert Pujols, 29, St. Louis Cardinals – Who can you say about Pujols that hasn’t been said? He is just so amazing year after year. He hasn’t put up especially gaudy home run and RBI titles the past two seasons, but the insane batting average he posts yearly separates him from the pack. He hasn’t hit below .330 since 2002 including last year’s .357. I love Hanley Ramirez as much as anyone else, but I have no qualms with making Pujols the #1 overall pick in a scratch draft. It is frightening to think that he could actually improve on last year and get back to 2006 levels. Letting him go any deeper than fourth overall is a crime and at fourth, that owner is getting a steal.

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