Archive for June, 2012

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Monday: 06.11.2012

The 2002 Draft: 1st Round in Review

The amateur draft has come and gone and while it wasn’t as talent-laden as last year’s first round, there was still plenty of excitement surrounding a handful of guys and the teams that secured those talents are eager to see how those prospects pan out.  Fans of every team of course want to know how their team did.  They want analysts and pundits to give a grade and project the future of the players with perfect comparisons to current players.

That, of course, is exceedingly difficult.  Check that, it is very easy to do, it is exceedingly difficult to do so with any measure of accuracy.  Unlike the NFL and NBA drafts, the MLB draft takes several years to pan out (and the NFL/NBA ones can, too, but you will almost always see immediate returns the following season as well as have some projects that may pay off a few years later whereas it is insanely rare for an MLB draftee to pay dividends in year 1) as these kids, whether high schoolers or collegiate athletes, simply aren’t ready for the highest level of their profession.

With that in mind, instead of assessing the future of 17 to 22 year olds who I know very little about, let’s look back at the draft from 10 years ago and grade that with the benefit of 20/15 hindsight (20/20 hindsight is for lames).  Let’s start with a review of the first round.

It was a talent rich first round in 2002, though little did we know then that it would be so for the middle to late round team as opposed to those atop the draft.  Except for Tampa Bay’s B.J. Upton at #2, the remaining top five picks were colossal busts.

  1. Bryan Bullington, RHP, Pittsburgh
  2. Upton, OF, Tampa Bay
  3. Chris Gruler, RHP, Cincinnati
  4. Adam Loewen, LHP, Baltimore
  5. Clint Everts, RHP, Montreal

Gruler and Everts never even made it to the majors while Loewen has converted into a hitter and is now with the Mets in AAA after spending 2011 in the Blue Jays system.  Bullington spent 82 innings in the majors with a 5.62 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 1.7 K/BB.  He has been in Japan for the last two years and seems to have found himself there.  Last year he had a 2.42 ERA and 3.2 K/BB in 204 innings and though he is up to 3.96 this year, his skills are a bit better with a 3.5 K/BB in 64 innings.

This quintet has yielded exactly 12 WAR with Upton’s 12.1 hilariously leading the way as it is higher than the total.

Things turned up immediately (6-10… when converting this from Word into WordPress, it started every set of players back at 1):

  1. Zack Greinke, RHP, Royals
  2. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers
  3. Scott Moore, SS, Tigers
  4. Jeff Francis, LHP, Rockies
  5. Drew Meyer, SS, Rangers

Three strong picks here as Greinke and Fielder are of course stars while Francis has delivered a solid 8.6 WAR which a lot of teams would probably take if you could guarantee that out of their first round pick, although you would like more out of a top 10 pick.  The pair of shortstops were the failures here and while both made the majors, they contributed a slick -1.2 WAR between the two of them.

Moore never made it to the majors with the Tigers (he made it with the Cubs & Orioles) as he was part of the Kyle Farnsworth trade with the Cubs in 2005.  He was still just 21 at the time, but hadn’t done anything particularly special in the low minors for the Tigers.  He is actually still plugging away in AAA having logged 1732 plate appearances there with an .839 OPS.

He is 28 years old and raking for the Astros AAA affiliate with a .330/.413/.571 line in 214 plate appearances playing all around the diamond, but primarily third base.  Meyer, meanwhile, logged 1487 plate appearances in AAA through 2010, but managed a mere .636 OPS and appears to have hung ‘em up for good.  He is now 30.

This quintet has yielded 51.9 WAR with Greinke’s 28.2 leading the way.

The hits picked up in the next 10 (11-20):

  1. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins
  2. Joe Saunders, LHP, Angels
  3. Khalil Greene, SS, Padres
  4. Russ Adams, SS, Blue Jays
  5. Scott Kazmir, LHP, Mets
  6. Nick Swisher, OF, Athletics
  7. Cole Hamels, LHP, Phillies
  8. Royce Ring, LHP, White Sox
  9. James Loney, 1B, Dodgers
  10. Denard Span, OF, Twins

Only a pair of this 10 pack has failed to return positive value (Adams -0.4, Ring -1.0) while four of them have yielded more than 13 WAR (Hamels 25.4, Kazmir 15.2, Swisher 14.2 and Span 13.2).  Yes, I am surprised that Kazmir has out-WAR’d Swish and Span, too.  Apart from the two busts, the top pick of these 10 has actually yielded the least amount of value as Hermida has netted just 1.8 WAR.

All 10 players have at least reached the majors and if Ring gets one more game (he is still in Colorado’s system), then all of them will have played at least 100 games, too.  The other flameout in this group, Adams, was in AAA as of 2011 with the Mets at age 30, but posted a mere .542 OPS in 72 plate appearances.

And the final 10 picks yielded a star and few other impact players as well one who switched positions and could end up as an impact guy when it is all said and done (21-30):

  1. Bobby Brownlie, RHP, Cubs
  2. Jeremy Guthrie, RHP, Indians
  3. Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves
  4. Joe Blanton, RHP, A’s
  5. Matt Cain, RHP, Giants
  6. John McCurdy, SS, A’s
  7. Sergio Santos, SS, Diamondbacks
  8. John Mayberry, OF, Mariners
  9. Derick Grigsby, RHP, Astros
  10. Ben Fritz, RHP, A’s

I should’ve mentioned this out front, but this is the Moneyball draft.  The A’s hit on Swisher and Blanton, but missed on McCurdy, Fritz and their three sandwich picks (Jeremy Brown, Steve Obenchain and Mark Teahen who yielded a combined 0.7 WAR, all from Teahen).

Cain might not feel like a superstar name, but he gets paid like one and pitches like one despite being overshadowed by teammate Tim Lincecum.  He has four straight 200+ inning seasons and when combined with his league-leading 86 innings from 2012, he has a 3.19 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB in 1166 innings.  And that 2.5 K/BB is held down by some of the earlier work as it continues to rise going 2.1, 2.1, 2.3, 2.9, 2.8, 5.1 since 2007.  This year’s 5.1 is driven by improvement in both his strikeout and walk rates.

Brownlie bounced around the minors and independent ball for seven years with four organizations, McCurdy never made it past AA, Grigsby was a terribly sad story as he never made it past A-ball lasting just two years before falling victim to crippling depression after the death of his mother and Fritz knocked around the minors and Indy ball for nine years, spending the majority of his time in the low minors with modest skills.

Mayberry is hoping to be a late-bloomer after a breakout at age 27 last year, though he has performed dismally in 55 games this year thus far.  Meanwhile, Santos is rewriting his story as a big time late-inning reliever and has put together a pair of strong seasons before being traded to Toronto where he is currently working back from an injury.

So that’s the first round (sans the supplemental round) and it turned out quite well.

  • 24 of 30 picks at least reached the majors (80%)
  • 9 of 30 picks delivered at least 12 WAR (30%)
  • 15 of 30 picks deliver at 7.4 WAR (50%)
  • The 6 non-double-digit guys are in the 7.4 to 8.9 WAR range and counting (20%)
  • The top 30 delivered 217.5 WAR

Compare that with the two drafts sandwiching the 2002 iteration.  The 2001 draft delivered 132.2 WAR from its top 30, 103.7 of which came from four of the top five picks (Joe Mauer, Mark Prior, Gavin Floyd, Mark Teixeira) led by Mauer’s 33.8 and Teix’s 42.6.  Only Dewon Brazelton, the third pick, delivered negative value in the top five (-3.5 WAR for the then-Devil Rays).  The 2003 draft delivered 125.7 WAR led by Nick Markakis’ 20.4.  Three of the top six never saw the majors and four of the 22 who made the majors delivered negative value “led” by Brandon Wood’s -4.0 WAR.

Both the 2001 and 2003 drafts delivered a supplemental gem as David Wright was selected 38th by the Mets as a comp. pick for Mike Hampton in 2001 and Adam Jones was selected 37th (as a shortstop) by the Mariners as a comp. pick in 2003 for their failure to sign John Mayberry Jr. the year before.

Upcoming pieces will tour each division and look at how all 30 teams did individually.

Posted in 2002 Draft, Analysis, Baseball, MLB Draft | 5 Comments »

Friday: 06.8.2012

BP Work This Week

A quick look at my work available over at Baseball Prospectus this week.

  • First up was the Starting Pitcher Value Picks piece in which I looked at Phil Hughes, who I may have pumped up after watching him dismantle my favorite team in a complete game of excellence.  I profess my love of Edwin Jackson yet again.  Weird.  Completely unexpected.
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  • Next up was the Weekly Planner piece which takes a look at the all the two-start pitchers for next week and decides who you should go with and who you should probably avoid.  Aces are very light this week meaning you will have to look at some lesser options if you want to load up on two start starters in H2H leagues.  Edwin Jackson (yes, two mentions!!!) and Bud Norris are among my favorites in that group.
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  • I also appeared in the Lineup Card for the first time since joining Baseball Prospectus.  The week’s topic was “Favorite Baseball Books” and I discussed one of my favorite books ever: The Numbers Game by Alan Schwarz.  Just a fantastic journey through the history of baseball stats engineered by one of the best writers out there.  He did some fascinating work on concussions in the NFL and continues to dominate life for the NY Times.
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  • And finally, episode 7 will come out for the The Towers of Power Fantasy Hour, a BP Fantasy Podcast on Saturday.  We discussed a ton of players of varying import ranging from stars to lower tier “only” league options.  In lieu of specific segments like most weeks, the meat of the show were these in depth breakdowns on players.  Send your emails to fantasyhour@baseballprospectus.com.  We record on Thursdays usually, but moved to Friday this week.  We also have a Facebook Group that you should definitely join.  Here is my entrant for “Best Thing I Read This Week”.  I didn’t explain it particularly well on the podcast, but it cracked me the f up.

Posted in Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, Fantasy Baseball, Jobs, Podcast | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 06.8.2012

Have You Ever Noticed?

I have a useless knack for noticing random things.  I notice when a cigarette grows in length during a scene on a film or show.  In fact, I notice way too many continuity errors.  Maybe I can get paid for it and become a Continuitist.  Best job ever.  I notice random patterns and of course ones that are more obvious, too.  I use several different sites to cull statistical information when I am working on pieces or just doing research for my fantasy baseball teams including ESPN.

It always seems to catch my eye when the same guy leads across the board on the five categories they have as the header on team stat pages.  This would fall under the more obvious patterns to catch as I am sure a lot of people would take notice of the same face five times in a row. They just wouldn’t turn it into a blog post about the teams in baseball who have this going on for their team.

There are eight teams in baseball with the same guy leading the club in batting average, home runs, runs batted in, on-base percentage and hits.  Let’s just say there aren’t scrubs pulling off that feat.  It’s not a massively diverse skill set needed to pull off the feat, but a good number of things have to align properly to be atop all of them.

Obviously you are kind of double-dipping with batting average and hits, though it’s no guarantee that leading one will give you the other.  In fact, 12 teams have a different leader in batting average and hits.   Home runs and runs batted in are an obvious double-dip as well and only seven teams saw a different leader in each of those categories.

Good batting average and on-base percentage don’t necessarily go hand-in-hand, so you have to be able to rack up hits and either do so with a good eye to draw some walks (lest an Adam Dunn-type thwart you in OBP… though Paul Konerko shan’t be outdone this year) or just be on a team where your huge batting average and handful of walks overpowers anyone else’s OBP.

First, take a moment to see how many of the eight names you can guess without looking below.  Here are some hints:

  • Of the eight, four are what I would call “obvious”
  • Of the four non-obvious, two aren’t obscure names, just surprises to be leading these 5 cats
  • Of the eight, six are from the American League & two from the National League
  • Of the eight, five are outfielders

OK, those are your clues.

Good luck guessing.

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This is me

…giving you some time

…and pushing some space

…between the above text

…and the pictures that I am about to post.

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OK, time’s up.

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Let’s eliminate some name that you may have guessed.

There were five guys who just missed making the list as they led in four of five categories:

  • Carlos Gonzalez is just .002 OBP points behind Dexter Fowler.
  • Miguel Cabrera is just .011 OBP points behind Prince Fielder.
  • Hunter Pence is just .013 AVG points behind Placido Polanco.
  • Chase Headley is just .008 AVG points behind Will Venable.
  • Matt Joyce is just 6 RBIs behind Luke Scott.

Of those, I would assume that Cargo, Miggy and Pence were possible, if not likely, guesses.

The obvious guys were all outfielders:

Even as stacked as the Rangers are (despite their recently mortality in which they have gone 3-7 in their last 10), it is no surprise that Josh Hamilton is leading the pack their because he has just been on another level.  He actually has three guys on his butt for the hits lead as Elvis Andrus, Michael Young and Ian Kinsler all have 66. The impressive thing about that is that they all have 11 or more at-bats than him.

With Fielder gone, Ryan Braun doesn’t have much competition atop the leaderboards for the Brewers.  If Jonathan LuCroy hadn’t gotten hurt and could’ve registered enough at-bats for the batting title, he might have pushed Braun in OBP where he trails by .002 right now.

If these were ordered by most obvious, Andrew McCutchen would have been listed first.  He is up by 11 hits, two home runs, nine RBIs, .062 average points and .068 on base points.  Pedro Alvarez’s power output is the only thing keeping Cutch from running away with all five categories.

Jones is a bit surprising if only because the surprise Orioles have gotten several standout performances, but his 16 home runs and 35 runs batted in are among the American League’s best which is why he still made it into this group of relatively obvious leaders.

Oddly enough, two of the surprise names are full time DHs:

It is quite impressive that David Ortiz is leading all five of these categories on the Red Sox.  The middle three aren’t terribly surprising, but to see him pacing the squad in batting average and hits is definitely a shock.  Haven’t we (we being the baseball community) left him for dead two or three times?

I guess Billy Butler isn’t too surprising in light of the struggles to their other hitting standouts, but he usually displays modest power making his 32 home run, 103 RBI pace a shock this deep into the season.  He might finally be having the power breakout I have projected for the last 17 years.

I am pretty sure my beagle was leading the Oakland Athletics in hits at one this season, so perhaps Josh Reddick isn’t exactly surprising given how inept their offense is, but apart from his 14 home runs, he easily has the worst numbers of this octet and he might not be leading any of these categories had Yoenis Cespedes not gotten hurt for a spell.

And in my estimation, the biggest surprise of all is Mark Trumbo.  We can’t just chalk it up to Mike Trout not qualifying either as he has him beat in batting average and on-base percentage, though if you gave them an equal number of games, Trout is pacing to have more hits.  On a team with Albert Pujols and coming from a guy who posted a sub-.300 OBP last year, this is a major surprise.  It will be far more impressive if he is leading at the All-Star break, let alone the end of the season, but for now he gets his glory.  He is definitely the favorite to lead the team in Trumbombs this year.

I realize this isn’t in the vein of most posts you find here at BbP, but I figured something fun for a Friday might be a nice change of pace.  Besides, who doesn’t want 1,000+ words on the guys in baseball leading their team in five arbitrary categories picked by ESPN?

Posted in Baseball, Fun, Random | 1 Comment »

Wednesday: 06.6.2012

Brandon Beachy’s Strikeout Decline

Brandon Beachy seemingly emerged out of thin air last year to make 25 great starts for the Atlanta Braves.  His rookie campaign was injury shortened as he missed most of May and June limiting him to 142 innings, but his numbers were quite impressive.

While his 3.68 ERA was fourth (of five) among rookie hurlers with 100+ innings in the National League, his 10.7 K/9 led all MLB pitchers who threw 140+ innings.  His 1.21 WHIP was quite good, too.  In fact, everything about his stat profile said his ERA should’ve been better, evidenced further by his 3.16 xFIP.  His 1.0 HR/9 hurt with seven of 16 longshots including additional runners on base.

After all of that, many looked forward to the encore presentation of Beachy.  So far it has been nothing short of amazing.  He leads baseball with a 1.87 ERA and trails just a few guys for lead in WHIP with his 0.95 in 72 innings.  He has cut the flyball and line drive rates channeling it into a 9% increase in groundball rate (42%) resulting in a near-halving of his home run rate to 0.6 HR/9.

He has some good fortune and sparkling defensive support yielding a miniscule and league-best .207 BABIP.  Despite all that he is just 5-4 which is exhibit 5,938,291,764 of why win-loss record is virtually useless as a standalone judge for how a pitcher has fared.  So tired are his defenders from flashing the leather that they’ve given him just 6.4 runs per game, 50th-best among qualified starters in baseball.

While there is so much good going on in Beachy’s season, it is hard not to notice the 3.6 strikeouts he has shaved off of his rate down to 7.1 K/9.  He has actually cut his strikeout rate by more Henderson Alvarez (2.6), Derek Lowe (2.7) and Kevin Correia (3.1) have this season.  By maintaining his walk rate and matching last year’s 2.9 BB/9, he still has a solid if unspectacular 2.5 K/BB (61st among qualified starters).  But why the stark drop in punch outs?

He reached the majors in 2010 after spending most his season in the AA bullpen followed by seven strong starts AAA where he posted a 9.5 K/9 and 8.0 K/BB in 46 innings.  In three late-season starts for the big league club he was solid, especially for a 23-year old rookie.  He had a 3.00 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.1 K/BB in his 15 innings.

His 2011 breakout was spurred by the development of a slider, a pitch he didn’t even throw in his three late-season starts in 2010.  He had a strikeout per inning during those three 2010 starts though none of his three pitches (fastball, changeup, curveball) was his specific strikeout pitch.  The slider became his most-used secondary pitch at 19% easily outpacing the changeup (11%) and curveball (10%).  It turned the strikeout rate we saw in his 2010 season, both in the majors and minors, into something real.

Not only did batters put together a measly .182/.223/.339 line in plate appearances that ended on sliders, but they struck 40% of the time on it.  He generated 52 of his 169 strikeouts (31%) on the pitch burying it low and away to righties, down and in on lefties.  Righties flailed at it while lefties swung over the top of it.

The fastball (28%), changeup (22%) and curveball (17%) contributed plenty to the bottom line which isn’t surprising as you aren’t going to carry a 10.7 K/9 with one pitch for strikeouts (unless you’re a reliever).  The slider was his secondary pitch of choice when it counted, though.  He threw his fastball 52% of the time in 2-strike counts and his slider 29% of the time while the change and curve were at 9% and 10%, respectively.

His pitch usage in 2-strike counts this year isn’t really any different with the slider being used a little less at 25%, the fastball up to 55% and the change (8%) and curveball (12%) almost exactly the same.  So he hasn’t changed his approach for garnering strikeouts, but the pitch selection just hasn’t been as effective (obviously).

Batters are laying off the fastball and slider much more with precipitous declines in the swing-through rates on both with two strikes.  Both are being put into play more often, though obviously with good results based on his great results and tiny BABIP.  Only 6% of the fastballs in play last year were groundballs, this year it is up to 11% while the slider has risen from 10% to 12%.  Again, that is in 2-strike counts.  Perhaps the more patient approach from hitters is causing Beachy to find the zone more often with the slider.

So far it hasn’t hurt him at all, but in general allowing more balls in play is obviously more dangerous than fanning a guy.  The 5% increase in ball rate on 2-strike counts from the slider cannot be ignored, either.  Those could just be waste pitches as he tries to get batters to chase as they did often last year, but it looks like batters are laying off of the bad ones and waiting for something more hittable.

Hittable absolutely being a relative phrase because as while they aren’t striking out on the pitch, they certainly aren’t doing anything worthwhile with the slider.  Opponents have a .172/.180/.207 (yes, .387 OPS!) against the pitch overall.  Beachy has clearly traded those strikeouts in for tons of weak contact which can be an effective path toward success, too.  Yes it is unlikely that he can sustain a .207 BABIP over the season, but he doesn’t need to end the year with a 1.87 ERA/0.95 WHIP to be successful.

How has the lower strikeout rate impacted his ability to go deeper into games?  One issue with Beachy in his rookie season was his sub-6.0 innings per start rate.  He only found the seventh inning three times in his 25 starts and the eighth inning just once.  He was awesome at six inning outings, though.  He had 13 of them and gave up more than three runs just three times.

He has raised his average innings per start from five and two-thirds to just about six and two-thirds.  Over the course of a 32-start season, that’s a 29-inning increase and he is currently pacing toward a 211 inning season.  With 34% of his season banked at such an incredible ERA, he has a lot of wiggle room.  While it is reasonable to expect some regression, it would be surprising if the bottom randomly fell out for Beachy.

There were 16 pitchers with a sub-3.00 ERA last year including the likes of Ryan Vogelsong and Jeremy Hellickson, both of whom didn’t have the skills that Beachy previously displayed and is currently displaying.  But even if we are conservative and just give Beachy a 3.00 on the dot, he still has 138.7 innings of 3.57 ERA.  You don’t have to sell high to avoid apocalypse.  You can, especially if the returns significantly help your team, but Beachy has been great this year and he is still fooling hitters even with the diminished strikeout rate.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Monday: 06.4.2012

Did You Realize…? NL Edition

It’s June 4th, did you realize…

AL Edition

…that R.A. Dickey not only has a killer 2.69 ERA on the heels of a shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals, but he also has 70 Ks in his 74 innings putting him on pace for 210 this year?

Charlie Hough was the last knuckleballer to punch out 200+ batters when he fanned 223 in 1987 for the Texas Rangers.  He did so in 285 innings (7.0 K/9), though, while Dickey is pacing 220 innings (8.5 K/9).

…that Gio Gonzalez, and not Stephen Strasburg, has been the Nationals best pitcher thus far?

It’s a matter of degree with just 0.04 points of ERA, 0.02 points of WHIP and a whopping 0.46 K/9 separating the pair.  And if you look below the surface numbers, Gonzalez has had more luck on his side with miniscule BABIP and HR/FB rates while Strasburg is nearly at league average in both yielding a significant edge for Strasburg in xFIP: 2.51 to Gio’s 2.82.  Fact is: both are awesome.

…that Tim Lincecum’s 5.1 BB/9 is the worst in the National League?

His struggles have been well-documented, but I was surprised to see that he has the worst walk rate in his league.  His inability to work with runners on (62% LOB%) has killed him this year.  Some of it might be bad luck, but watching him shows obvious struggles from the stretch that need to be fixed if he expects to come anywhere near that 3.88 xFIP that has many believing in a rebound.

…that Trevor Cahill is generating a career-high 64% groundball rate?

His strikeout and walk rates have gone the wrong way, especially with the transition to the National League, but he is still posting a strong 3.45 ERA and pairing it with a career-best 3.76 xFIP.  Even his 2.97 ERA of 2010 only yielded a 3.99 xFIP.  This 24-year old just keeps getting better as a pitcher and I think there is still another level for him to reach skills-wise, too.  Once he can command his sinker in the bottom of the zone a bit more and cut that walk rate, batters are in big trouble.

…that Matt Cain is posting the best skills of his career with an 8.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 4.9 K/BB?

Yes, his ERA continues to out-perform his xFIP, but his xFIP also continues to come down.  He has dropped it yearly dipping below 4.00 for the first time last year (3.78) and sitting at 3.57 so far this year.

…that Brandon Beachy is toting baseball’s best ERA at 1.87 despite cutting over three and a half strikeouts off of his 2011 rate?

He fanned 10.7 per game last year, but this year is down to 7.2 in his 72 innings.  In turn, he has shaved 5% off of his flyball rate, added 8% to his groundball rate and cut a whopping 10% off of his BABIP from .307 down to .207 (no, 100 points isn’t 10% of .307, but his hit rate on balls in play dropped from 31% to 21%, that’s the 10% I’m talking about).  There is some regression coming to that ERA, but the dip in strikeout rate doesn’t mean the success is a complete fluke, either.

…that despite his frightening 6.98 ERA, Mike Minor is actually posting skills good enough for a 4.33 xFIP?

His insane 17% HR/FB rate has led to a 2.0 HR/FB rate, but his 7.9 K/9 and 2.4 K/BB are quite good.  Part of the gopheritis is bad luck, but part of it is his own doing as he fails to locate properly in the zone.  He doesn’t have overpowering stuff so command and control are necessary for sustained success or else he is subject to getting batted around as evidenced by his 27% line drive rate a season ago.

…that the three NL leaders in K/BB rate are all Phillies yet Roy Halladay isn’t among them?

He’s right there at 10 with a 4.0 K/BB, but teammates Cliff Lee (5.4), Cole Hamels (5.0) and Joe Blanton (4.9) are leading the way.  Blanton isn’t the only surprise as Bronson Arroyo is right there with a 4.9 himself.

…that three NL relievers have fanned at least 40% of the batters they have faced, but that Jason Grilli (40%) is one them??

The other two, unsurprisingly, are Craig Kimbrel (41%) and Aroldis Chapman (49%!!!!!!!).  Grilli has actually raised his strikeout percentage yearly since 2005 starting at 8% before entering the 20s in 2008.  Though 35, Grilli seems to be throwing his best baseball.

…that Tony Campana is on pace for 54 stolen bases?

This is despite also being on pace for just 309 at-bats.  At this rate, if he could just get 400 at-bats, he would steal 70 bases.  It can be annoying to have a one-trick pony in your lineup, but Campana can win you stolen bases.  He should be rostered in any league, especially since he’s actually been a two-trick pony with a .291 average, too.

…that Dexter Fowler is on pace for 18 doubles, triples and stolen bases?

As well as 24 home runs, 99 runs scored and 84 driven in.  He is also hitting .297 with a .400 on-base percentage.  In other words, he has been amazing this year.  It is absolutely ridiculous that he is 70% owned in Yahoo! leagues and 91% in ESPN.  I can’t envision a format (save AL-only obviously) where he isn’t a viable option.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Statistical Analysis, Stats, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 06.1.2012

Did You Realize…? AL Edition

It’s June 1st, did you realize…

…that Felix Hernandez is toting a 3.42 ERA, good for 40th among qualified starters in the majors?

He posted a 4.45 ERA in May, but still had 33 strikeouts in his 32 innings with a 3.3 K/BB so I wouldn’t rush to the panic meter.  He had a BABIP of .378 for the month including three outings in which he allowed 10 or more hits.  Oddly enough one of his two good starts in May came against the Texas Rangers as he went eight strong allowing a run with seven strikeouts and a pair of walks.

…that Chris Sale leads the American League in ERA at 2.34 in 58 innings?

The month of May saw him get removed from the rotation (on May 4th) and thrust into the closer’s role where it was reported he would stay for “at least the rest of 2012”.  About a week later, he was having an MRI on his elbow and there was even some concern that he could be shutdown altogether.  He stayed in the closer’s role for all of 10 minutes blowing one save in his only relief appearance on May 8th before returning the rotation on May 12th.  He closed the month out with 25 innings of 1.82 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with 31 strikeouts including a 15-strikeout outing on Memorial Day.

…that Sale’s White Sox are 30-22 with a +40 run differential despite Gavin Floyd (5.02), Philip Humber (5.37) and John Danks (5.70) all toting >5.00 ERAs?

It helps that Sale leads the AL and Jake Peavy isn’t far behind with a 3.05 ERA of his own.  Of those three, I am still buying Floyd.  He has a 3.2 K/BB built on a career-high 8.0 K/9 in 61 innings.  Home runs have killed him, especially in his last three outings as the Angels, Twins and Indians trounced him for 21 runs in 15 innings with five bombs.  The velocity is fine and the control only fell off in the Minnesota game (3 BB) so I don’t think there is an issue that plague him in the long term.  It appears to be a rough patch with better times ahead.

…that Felix Doubront has a 9.5 K/9 and has arguably been Boston’s best start thus far?

If you’ll afford me a small back pat, I would point out that I touted Doubront in this year’s pitching guide advising that if the Red Sox gave him the shot he deserved then he should be targeting.  He is even out-doing my expectations pairing the strikeouts with a 3.86 ERA and five wins in 56 innings.  His 1.36 WHIP is a bit high, but at his cost you can easily accept that flaw.  Furthermore, he is running hot of late with a 2.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over his last four with 27 Ks in 24 IP.

…that MLB’s strikeout leader, Max Scherzer (11.7 K/9), labored to a 4.04 ERA in May despite a 12.8 K/9 and 6.4 K/BB?

It was actually a marked improvement from his 7.77 ERA in April.  The big issue in May was a severe case of gopheritis as he allowed at least one home run in every start (yielding a 2.0 HR/9).  While some these struggles definitely fall on Scherzer’s shoulders, a good bit is bad luck, too, as his skills have been far more elite than his 5.55 ERA would suggest.  He has a 3.19 xFIP as his .387 BABIP and 17% HR/FB rate have to regress some in his favor.  He fanned 9 or more in four of his six May outings, I’d buy in if you can as his best outings are still ahead.

…that Henderson Alvarez and Derek Lowe both have K/9 rates lower than their ERAs?

Their ERAs are both on the right side of 4.00 which is what makes that such a weird phenomenon.  In the last 10 years, only three pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title have managed to post a K/9 lower than (or equal to) their ERA while maintaining a sub-4.00 ERA:

  • 2006 Chien-Ming Wang: 3.63 ERA, 3.1 K/9 in 218 IP
  • 2005 Carlos Silva: 3.44 ERA, 3.4 K/9 in 188 IP
  • 2009 John Lannan: 3.88 ERA, 3.88 K/9 in 206

…that Phil Hughes has allowed at least one home run in every start of the year?

His 14% HR/FB rate is high, but not as egregious as I thought it might be when I saw his 2.1 HR/FB.  His generally heavy flyball rate (career 46%) is at its heaviest of 49% so while I am intrigued by his 8.4 K/9 and 3.8 K/BB, that intrigue is tempered by home run issues that are unlikely to evaporate barring a change in his approach.  While it is easy to envision his 5.64 ERA coming down some, the xFIP of 4.34 says it isn’t exactly set to plummet in the vein of Scherzer.

…that Ervin Santana actually did make a change to curb his gopheritis with a 64% groundball rate in May?

After allowing 10 home runs (2.9 HR/9) in April en route to a 6.16 ERA, he figured that keeping the ball down going forward would be helpful.  His 41% groundball rate in April skyrocketed to an AL-best 64% and yielding a far more palatable 1.2 HR/9 in May.  That is right in line with his career mark of 1.1 HR/9 coming into this season.  He was actually in the midst of a great May with a 2.17 ERA through his first four starts before stumbling a bit against Seattle and New York and settling for a still solid 3.69 ERA in 39 innings.  I’m still buying where available.

…that Mike Trout is on pace for 96 Rs, 22 HR, 83 RBIs and 35 SBs?

In the last three years only two players have hit those thresholds: both Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury last year.  Even if you chop 20% off of those paces to 77-17-66-28, there are only 12 such seasons in the last three years across 10 players as Kemp and Ian Kinsler each did it twice.  Early on it looks like Trout is exactly the stud he was predicted to be when he was checking in as a top 3 prospect on lists all across the industry this preseason.

Here’s the kicker: take the 80% figures and tack on a .309 batting average threshold and we get just four instances in the last three years (it drops to three instances at the 100% paces).  Let’s say he hits the 80% paces and hits “only” .290, where does he go in 2013 drafts?  Is he a first rounder already?  What if he hits 95% or better of the current pace?

…that no one is on pace top 40 stolen bases in the American League?

Both Alejandro De Aza and Jason Kipnis are pacing the league with 12 apiece pacing them for 37 and 38, respectively, based on their team’s games played.  Paces can still be out of whack even two months into the season and with a category like steals, things can change rapidly.  Rajai Davis has 10 in his 38 games played, but has recently fallen into more playing time.  If he maintain anywhere near his current .819 OPS, he should stick in the lineup and I don’t think he would have any trouble reaching and topping 40 stolen bases.  If he gets a full set of at-bats in 90 of the remaining 110 games, he paces to steal about 50 steals based on his 10 in 68 at-bats thus far.  He is on a roster in just 3% of ESPN leagues.  That number should be much, much higher.

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