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Thursday: 11.19.2009

2010 Mock Draft: Round 2

I promised part 2 of the NFL Week 10 Review and catcher rankings today, but I’m a big fat liar. I feel like the page on an NFL week is turned on Wednesday so I passed on part 2. With the revamp of the review, it shouldn’t be 9,000 words every week and it will be easy to digest in one sitting on Monday mornings. As for the catcher rankings, I also threw another changeup. First off, I’m going to start at third base and head around the diamond backwards, but I’m not quite done yet, so please be patient.

In the interim, I’d like to continue sharing the picks and analysis of a great mock draft I’m currently involved in at the BaseballHQ.com (subscription required, but well worth it) forums. I’ve been lurking over there for some time so I knew I was going to be involved in a real battle when I started up the mock draft. It has been a really interesting draft so far (through 4 1/2 rounds thus far) as the 13 of us draft a standard roster for a 5×5 league that uses OBP instead of AVG while keeping everything else the usual. The round 1 analysis in case you missed it yesterday can be found here.

2.1 Troy Tulowitzki, SS COL
Lots of options here, but I decided on Tulo because 1) he could repeat or even improve, 2) he’s a shortstop, and 3) I didn’t have enough time to talk myself out of it.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Miguel Cabrera, 1B

My thoughts: This is a great pick at a frighteningly scarce position. Tulow’s 2008 was essentially lost to injury so you have to look at his 2007 season to determine how this 2009 fits in. When you look at the two, his 2009 isn’t a surprise at all. He’s showing legitimate growth for a budding superstar and he’s still just 25. The speed (20 SB after seven in ’07) might not stick, but he’s still a four-category ace even if fades back below double-digits.

2.2 Matt Holliday, OF FA
I’m running out of my house to go to work, but I wanted to get this in. Yes, two OF spots. But he’s the best of the last of the high OBP/big slugging types and there won’t be any when my turn comes around again.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Carl Crawford

My thoughts: I’m a firm believer in building a great outfield (more on that soon), so I love pairing Holliday’s power with Crawford’s speed. And the great thing is that each offers something (Holliday 14 SB, Crawford 15 HR) in the other’s strength. Two very good picks to address all five categories early on.

2.3 Jose Reyes, SS NYM
I’m going out on a limb here. I believe he’ll recuperate 100% for 2010 and if so, he’d be a 1st round pick. Course I could wind up with substantial amounts of egg on my face too.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Ryan Howard

My thoughts: A more extreme set of complementary players, but if Reyes is healthy enough to notch 50+ SBs, it’s a great combo. There is definitely some risk here, but he isn’t getting back to this draft in the late 3rd round so if he believes in a recovery, he has to take him here.

2.4 Evan Longoria 3B
Happy he lasted this long.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Tim Lincecum

My thoughts: I’d have like at least some analysis behind this pick, but it’s clear this drafter was concerned that Longoria might not make it to pick 17, so he’s happy to pair him with Lincecum. Third base is rough this year so getting a stud is important.

2.5 Mark Reynolds 3B
I need to power/speed combo and willing to take the OBP hit.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Joe Mauer

My thoughts: See what I mean re: 3B? Taking Reynolds here is really nice because Mauer makes up for any potential hit in OBP. That said, Reynolds does take some walks and I could see him drawing even more in 2010 if he tears the league as he did in 2009.

2.6 Ian Kinsler 2B Texas Rangers
Proven 30/30 talent in the middle of the 2nd rd? A 24% hit rate last year stunted his obp to .323 even though he went 31/31 with 86 rbis and 101 runs. Even a 28% hit rate should jump that obp up to 340 or .350 and with Prince Fielder anchoring that category I’m not to worried. This guy definently has a chance for a 35/35 season and could end up returning top 5 numbers in 2010.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Prince Fielder

My thoughts: There is a distinct reason that a 30-30 2B lasts this long: injuries. Kinsler just can’t get through a season. He lasted his longest yet in 2009, but still missed 18 games. Imagine what he can do if ever puts everything together: 2008’s batting average with 2009’s power and speed for 650 ABs. It could be an all-time fantasy baseball season.

2.7 – Grady Sizemore, OF – Cleveland
Here at pick 20, he’s probably 3-5 picks sooner than anyone was looking, but I don’t pick again until 32 so if I want him, I have to get him now. Last year was a washout, without question, but I’m not ready to drop him off the map because of it. His down category, AVG, is erased and turned into a strength with an OBP league as he draws a great deal of walks.

I like a nice bounceback season of .380-112-31-94-27

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Matt Kemp

My thoughts: Thrilled to get two all-around outfielders with my first two picks.

2.8 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF – Red Sox
Needless to say I am taking him for the speed (50 or more steals the last 2 years). He doesn’t hurt you in OBP and should score a ton of runs. I think there are will still be a number of good run producers left when I make my next pick.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Mark Teixeira

My thoughts: Ellsbury was a consideration for me when I took Sizemore. He’s not an empty base stealer. He can set you up to win that category, but also score a ton of runs and offer a good AVG and useful OBP depending on your league. He definitely earns you enough in SBs to take the virtual zero in the power categories.

2.9 – Joey Votto 1B – Cincinnati
I am sure some will regard this pick as a reach, but the elite OBP here helps balance the possibility of a mediocre OBP from my first-rounder Ryan Braun, and while the 25 HR are rather modest, the 166 PX indicates excellent power skills, so growth in production appears likely as he approaches his prime.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Ryan Braun

My thoughts: This was the point where I truly realized I had entered a shark tank. I love this pick and don’t see it as a reach at all, especially in an OBP league as the drafter notes. He’s got a run of .400-100-30-100 seasons coming up, starting in 2010.

2.10 – Adrian Gonzalez 1B San Diego.
Power, OBP, age 27, ascending Px trend = [an easy pick]

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Alex Rodriguez

My thoughts: This team’s power and OBP after two picks is insane. Gonzalez gets a healthy boost in OBP leagues because his 119 walks in 2009 weren’t a fluke.

2.11 David Wright 3B NYM
Previous 4 years: 381 to 415 OBA, 26-33 HR, 15-34 SBs – rated #16 after Tulo and Longoria.
Given Wright his consistent power prior to this season, it is almost certain to improve in 2010. I was expecting to have to take another (more) risky player here (Reyes or Sizemore), but couldn’t pass up DW.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Chase Utley

My thoughts: I still have Wright in my first round so you know I like this pick in the late second round.

2.12 Adam Dunn 1B/OF WAS
A very healthy consistent player, he’s awesome in OBP leagues. Just 30 this season, there’s no reason to expect him to deviate much from his 3 year average of roughly 90 R, 40 HR, 100RBI and a .380+ OBP. The dual-position elegibility is nice, too. I’m going to slot him in at OF for now, but that could change.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Hanley Ramirez

My thoughts: 100+ walks for six straight seasons and seven of eight make him an OBP-league treasure. Oh and five of six seasons with 40+ home runs helps, too. He fell two short last year, but .398-38-105 is still a studly offering.

2.13 Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B BOS
Safe Tier One player. OBP machine. The 3B eligibility put him over the top for me compared to other players I was considering.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Albert Pujols

My thoughts: Position scarcity, upgrade with league format including OBP – seems like a great pick to me.

I’ll probably have round 3 up over the weekend.

Also, check out the interview I did with Jesse Spector of the NY Daily News found here. I’ve become friends with Jesse via Twitter and it was an honor to be a part of the series.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Mock Drafts, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 11.18.2009

2010 Mock Draft: Round 1

As I’ve mentioned before, the baseball season never really ends for me. Sure the playoffs are over, but that just means it is time to put both eyes on 2010. With that in mind, I started a mock draft over at the BaseballHQ.com forums (membership required) with 12 other members. It’s a slow mock at the forum that uses the standard 5×5 categories except eliminating AVG and replacing it with OBP. One thing I asked of the participants was their mindset behind the picks. Mock drafts are great tools on their own, but they are even better when you can see where someone is coming from with their picks, especially if it’s a pick you don’t necessarily agree with. I will share the first round with you now. I’m picking 7th in this draft.

1.01 Albert Pujols 1B, STL
I feel the first pick is a no-brainer heading into next season. As HQ readers know, it’s all about reliability in the early rounds. Pujols is not only the most highly skilled player in the MLB player pool, but he’s also the most reliable one. In reference to Ron’s Portfolio 3 Plan, this is a Tier 1 skill set if there ever was one. From a skills perspective, Pujols is money in the bank for a CT% around 90%, a PX around 160, and a BB% around 15%. From a results perspective, this truly unique skill set should once again translate into a Roto line of roughly 0.330 / 40 / 120 / 10 / 120. Enjoy Albert Pujols, HQ readers; we’re unlikely to ever see a better hitter in our lives.

My thoughts: Duh.

1.02 Hanley Ramirez SS, FLA
Big surprise, huh? There are actually a few warning signs here: While many expected the SB to decline as it did, PX also fell from 148 to 130 (145 1st half and 116 in 2nd half). And the BA boost was largely driven by a high h% (38%) as XBA shows (.289).

Still, that drop-off was meager in comparison to how the other top SS performed in 2009. He’s likely to be the best at a scarce position and contribute to all 5 categories (2 years in a row with a bb% >=10%), so he’s my pick.

My thoughts: Again, duh. Pujols and Ramirez are my easy 1-2. If someone wanted to make a case for a few other players after Pujols, I would listen, but I stand by Ramirez as my choice.

1.3 Utley, Chase (2B) PHI
What hip injury/surgery?? Solid 5-cat producer. Great line-up, great stadium.The number of MI, esp. 2B (Cano, Hill, Alexei, Phillips, Rollins and Polonco further down the scale) who’s roto value is driven (at least partially) by batting average who also have low BB% is noteworthy, so a some-what position scarcity pick,esp. in an OBP league. Also there should be alot of top tier 1B and OF there at the end of the 2nd round. And it is too early for a catcher.

Hopefully Mr. November carries on next year.

My thoughts: These first three played out exactly how I ranked the top three. I think Utley is underrated to a degree, amongst his other superstar brethren. There is more power at 2B than I think most realize, but only Utley has a track record of excelling in all five categories.

1.4 Rodriguez, Alex (3B) NYY
Certainty is at a premium for such an early pick and ARod’s return from significant surgery was above expectations. Slipping in many drafts in 09, he made those who ignored him, pay.

In an OBP league, he’s golden — from August til the end of the season, he soared and showed no signs of fatigue, displaying both power and speed in symbiosis with a great eye, on a consistent basis. In a year where there are doubts about his heir apparent, David Wright, ARod’s like fine wine — Wright’s slippage into a weak-hitting basestealer profile, enhances ARod’s value at the top.

Since ARod was able to post solid numbers in a year where all odds were stacked against him (enhanced media scrutiny, scandal, PEDs, major surgery), there is no reason to doubt that ARod will provide his usual output over the course of 2010.

My thoughts: This is the first pick that diverts from my top 12. That doesn’t make it wrong, of course. For one, my top 12 assumes a standard 5×5 league with batting average. And for two, I think things really jumble up 4-10 with little difference between the seven players within that range. I had Matt Kemp there, but I think A-Rod is a fine pick. A-Rod has had an OBP below .392 once since 2000 and it was .375!

1.05 Ryan Braun OF, MLW
Braun provides strong power/speed combination, is in a good lineup, is still young, and though his relatively low walk rate results in OBP fluctuation, his strong XBA indicates that he is likely to be solid in that category, which may be his weakest.

My thoughts: Back on track with top 12 as I had Braun fifth. How ridiculous has this guy been in his first three seasons? He seems to be getting better, which is absurd given how amazing he was during his rookie season. Another stud that does it in all five categories.

1.06 Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees
This pick is contrary to the position scarcity or difficult category (speed) approach. However, it seemed to me that the best first round choices left were outfielders and first baseman. I chose Teixeria based on his his consistent high performance for the last 5 years. During this time he has excelled in 4 of our 5 categories and has been extremely reliable which I think is essential for a 1st round pick.

I also like the fact that he is the #3 hitter in the Yankee lineup which should result in numerous opportunities to produce runs.

My thoughts: Big Teix has recently crept into my top 12 with Justin Morneau having some uncertainty surrounding him in 2010. Imagine how scary Teixeira’s season will be if he ever starts off hot and then has his usual torrid summer.

1.07 – Matt Kemp, OF – Los Angeles Dodgers
A budding superstar that contributes massively to four of the five categories we’re using. He’s better in batting average leagues, but he’s hardly a liability with his .350ish OBP. It’s not out of bounds to see him as a 40-40 candidate going forward. That would be the 99th percentile of his potential, but it exists. For now, I’d happily take 30-30 with improved plate discipline taking the OBP up above .360.

My thoughts: Well my thoughts are up there already since this was my pick. I love Kemp. As I mentioned earlier, Kemp is #4 in my top 12, but like I said that is for AVG leagues. I wouldn’t have taken Kemp fourth in this OBP league, but I was pleased to get him at #7.

1.08 – Prince Fielder, 1B – Milwakee Brewers
Compare these 2 5X5(w/obp)

Player A .441 / 47 / 124 / 16 / 135
Player B .409 / 46 / 103 / 2 / 141

Player A is Pujols and Player B is Prince Fielder. IMO Pujols at #1 is a no-brainer but at #8 a guy with the skill set of Prince Fielder is absolutely impossible to pass up. Also given the fact that he has hit 50 homers in 2007 and he’s entering his prime years as he doesn’t turn 26 until May. A 16% bb rate, a .080 eye and a 190 PX are hard to ignore.

My thoughts: I think Fielder has two or three more 50-home run seasons in his career, which is quite a feat when you consider the league leader had 47 in 2009. He just set a career-high in walks, and by extension OBP, with 110. I don’t necessarily understand the comparison w/Pujols here, but it was a good pick.

1.09 – Joe Mauer C- Minnesota Twins
Mauer is 26 and is heading into his prime hitting years. I believe he new found power is for real (28 HR in 2009). With this league using OBP over Avg it does’t hurt his value as Mauer lead MLB in OBP at .444. I believe that gap between Mauer and the #2 C is larger then any other #1 vs. #2 at any position. I am targeting him with this slot in a very similar league, so I appreciate all comments

My thoughts: I’m in the small, but growing camp that likes Mauer as a first rounder next year. There are reasons for caution in drafting him too high, but I think the power holds for the most part (around 25 home runs) while his OBP is game-changing. Despite all the talk about how Mauer is “injury-prone”, he’s managed 521 or better at-bats in three of the last four season. As far as I’m concerned, that’s a perfect range for a catcher. I’ll take another 520 out of Mauer in 2010 with a late first round pick.

1.10 Tim Lincecum, SP – San Francisco
Well I def would have taken Mauer and I’m now looking at some players that all have some type of ?. I hate doing this but I’ll take Tim Lincecum. My reason for this is there are a handful of bats available that I tossed around here and I believe at least one of them will still be available when the choice gets back to me. I’m unsure if Tim will be and honestly believe it really isn’t a reach here.

My thoughts: I don’t take pitchers in the first round, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. It’s just my preference to avoid them. Lincecum is the best of the bunch so if you’re going to take one, you might as well grab the best.

1.11 Ryan Howard, 1B PHI
A lot of good choices and fairly equal at this stage of the draft. Locking up a solid HR/RBI contributor seems like a “good idea”. he’s consistent and that lineup around looks solid for another year or two.

My thoughts: He’s a tremendous power producer, but I’d like to see get back to the .425, .392 OBP-levels he had 2006 and 2007 if I’m taking him over a handful of others still on the board.

1.12 Carl Crawford, OF TB
With an “elbow” pick, it’s important not only to see what is available, but see what’s around the corner. I see good HR/RBI guys to be had… but not many rock solid speed options. This is the one.

My thoughts: I love Crawford in 2010. I have him 6th in my top 12. He bounced back from the only down season of his career and I expect more excellence in 2010.

1.13 Miguel Cabrera, 1B DET
The best run-producing option left; one year in the next five, he is going to approach a 10-win season.

My thoughts: I’m not sure how Cabrera lasted this long, but it’s a great pick at 13. I assume the drafter means Wins Above Replacement when he speaks of a 10-win season.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Mock Drafts, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Thursday: 11.5.2009

MLB: Top 60 Fantasy Starting Pitchers for 2010

With the World Series concluding with the New York Yankees defeating the Philadelphia Phillies for their 27th championship, it’s time for the third season (if the regular season and postseason are #1 and #2): the Hot Stove season. This includes not only the offseason movement for all of the teams, but also the in-depth analysis for the upcoming fantasy baseball season. So as I sit in the internet cafe at the Doubletree Suites in Phoenix, AZ, getting ready for the opening reception of the BaseballHQ.com First Pitch Forums, I’m going to kickoff my Hot Stove season here at Baseball by Paul with my top two tiers of starting pitchers. (Yes, I unofficially kicked off with a few player previews and my top 12s from late in the 2009 season, but this is the OFFICIAL kickoff)…

Since there is still so much to be sorted out, this will just be a 1-60 list with the profile capsules coming later in the winter along with the third through fifth tiers. I’ll have a few comments on why some guys landed where they did later, but for now it will just be the list. Without further ado:

TOP TIER
1. Tim Lincecum, SF Giants
2. Johan Santana, NY Mets
3. Felix Hernandez, SEA Mariners
4. Roy Halladay, TOR Blue Jays
5. Dan Haren, ARI Diamondbacks
6. CC Sabathia, NY Yankees
7. Zack Greinke, KC Royals
8. Josh Beckett, BOS Red Sox
9. Javier Vazquez, ATL Braves
10. Jake Peavy, CHI White Sox
11. Justin Verlander, DET Tigers
12. Cliff Lee, PHI Phillies
13. Adam Wainwright, STL Cardinals
14. Brandon Webb, ARI Diamondbacks
15. Josh Johnson, FLO Marlins

SECOND TIER
16. Chris Carpenter, STL Cardinals
17. John Lackey, LA Angels
18. Jon Lester, BOS Red Sox
19. Yovani Gallardo, MIL Brewers
20. Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers
21. Matt Cain, SF Giants
22. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU Astros
23. Matt Garza, TB Rays
24. Jered Weaver, LA Angels
25. James Shields, TB Rays
26. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL Rockies
27. AJ Burnett, NY Yankees
28. Chad Billingsley, LA Dodgers
29. Cole Hamels, PHI Phillies
30. Tommy Hanson, ATL Braves
31. David Price, TB Rays
32. Rick Porcello, DET Tigers
33. Max Scherzer, ARI Diamondbacks
34. Jair Jurrjens, ATL Braves
35. Edwin Jackson, DET Tigers
36. Ted Lilly, CHI Cubs
37. Gavin Floyd, CHI White Sox
38. Randy Wolf, LA Dodgers
39. John Danks, CHI White Sox
40. Ricky Nolasco, FLO Marlins
41. Scott Baker, MIN Twins
42. Kevin Slowey, MIN Twins
43. Rich Harden, CHI Cubs
44. Jorge de la Rosa, COL Rockies
45. Stephen Strasburg, WAS Nationals
46. Roy Oswalt, HOU Astros
47. Erik Bedard, SEA Mariners
48. Carlos Zambrano, CHI Cubs
49. Ryan Dempster, CHI Cubs
50. Brett Anderson, OAK A’s
51. Johnny Cueto, CIN Reds
52. Clay Buchholz, BOS Red Sox
53. Jeff Niemann, TB Rays
54. Jordan Zimmerman, WAS Nationals
55. Derek Lowe, ATL Braves
56. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS Red Sox
57. Gil Meche, KC Royals
58. Neftali Feliz, TEX Rangers
59. Joba Chamberlain, NY Yankees
60. Aaron Harang, CIN Reds

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Tuesday: 11.3.2009

2010 Focus: Buster Posey

On the heels of the Matt Wieters profile from Saturday, I wanted to briefly discuss another hot catching prospect for 2010: San Francisco’s Buster Posey. Posey played some great baseball throughout his career at Florida State University, but it was his senior year that really put him on the map and led to his being picked 5th overall by the Giants in 2008. He had a video-game-on-beginner-level-esque line hitting .463/.566/.879 in 68 games with 26 home runs, 93 RBIs, 89 runs scored, 57 walks and just 29 strikeouts. Only once in his three years with the Seminoles did he strikeout more than he walked (as freshman in 2006: 45 K, 38 BB).

He had an insignificant 37 at-bat sample across two levels after being drafted in ’08, but it didn’t keep him from earning a spot among baseball’s top prospects coming into 2009 (14th). He didn’t disappoint putting together a .326/.428/.540 line with 13 home runs, 56 RBIs, 36 extra bases hits in all and a 1:1 K:BB ratio (45 apiece) in 291 at-bats at High A-San Jose. He skipped AA and went directly to AAA-Fresno and picked up right where he left off with a .321/.391/.511 with five home runs and 22 RBIs in 131 at-bats. All told, he has hit .327/.421/.538 with 19 home runs, 86 RBIs and a 1.02 K:BB rate (72:70) in his minor league career spanning 459 at-bats.

I can’t see how he has anything else to prove in the minors. Of course, Wieters had a .355/.454/.600 line with 27 home runs, 91 RBIs and a 0.93 K:BB rate (76:82) in 530 minor league at-bats in 2008 and still started 2009 in AAA-Norfolk. Bengie Molina’s contract is up, Pablo Sandoval is just fine at first or third base and Posey served his obligatory stint in AAA, so why wouldn’t he break camp with the big league team? So let’s operate under the assumption that Posey is a 2010 major leaguer, now what? Now is the time when we think back a few months (actually, eight) and remember the outlandish projections for Wieters, some of which even built in a quick AAA stint and then we recall what happened over the six months from April through September as Wieters failed to come close to the figures even if you pro-rate out the first two months since he wasn’t called up until May 29th.

The simple fact is that Posey would be an exception to the historical trend if he had an exemplary rookie season. As I covered in the Wieters profile, catchers rarely put together top tier debuts. And the ones that have had legitimate success in recent history had much more seasoning than either Wieters or Posey before reaching the big leagues. Geovany Soto labored through 2255 minor league at-bats and was a 25-year old rookie. Mike Piazza had more than three times as many minor league at-bats as Posey and almost two and a half times that of Wieters. Same with the other rookies of the year who played catcher since 1987:

  Min Lg. Abs vs. Posey vs. Wieters
Santiago 1654 3.6 2.9
Alomar 1933 4.2 3.3
Piazza 1390 3.0 2.4
Soto 1959 4.3 3.4

With such strong evidence in front of my face, I refuse to foolishly ignore it and predict magical things for Posey in 2010. I will, however, start Posey’s projection by giving him the full-time job. The incumbent, Molina, hit .265 with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs which looks alright on the surface, but then you see the .285 on-base percentage and start vomiting as if you’d just downed a gallon of ipecac before you can even get to the 87 OPS+. If that wasn’t bad enough, he has just one season above 100 OPS+ (108 in 2005 when he was an on-base “machine” at .336). There isn’t a single viable reason for San Francisco to bring the 35-year old back. It wouldn’t hurt for them to bring in a savvy vet to help Posey along, but I don’t think someone like Molina wants to be a second fiddle playing maybe two times a week. Perhaps his brother, Jose, would be interested in such a role. Regardless of who’s backing him up, I can guarantee one thing: Buster Posey will be overvalued for 2010.

Posey in 2009: .118-1-0-0-0*
Posey in 2010: .296-56-11-64-9

(* – Posey had a whopping 17 at-bats late last season)

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Player Focus, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Saturday: 10.31.2009

2010 Focus: Matt Wieters

If someone asks you how you thought Matt Wieters performed in 2009, your answer will likely give the questioner a lot of insight into how you rated Wieters coming into the season. If you say something like, “Oh that stupid bum ruined my team. He was a total bust!”, then it is clear that you were part of the (HUGE) group that massively overrated the rookie backstop. If your answer is more along the lines of, “Well he wasn’t anything terribly special, but his September/October gave us a taste of why he was the consensus #1 prospect coming into the season.”

You didn’t have to search very far to find a favorable outlook for Wieters in 2009. Joe Mauer with power was the tagline as projections ranged as high as 30+ home runs while many fell in the mid-20s. Even Bill James initially put Wieters down for 24 with 85 RBIs and a .311 batting average. This piece over at FanGraphs.com openly encouraged reaching for him in drafts. And there were countless others using different ways to say the same thing: Wieters will be an instant hit in the major leagues.

I can honestly say I’m not using 20/15 hindsight to chastise those that were over the top in their predictions of Wieters. I was in the vocal minority that believed it was a foolish risk to jump headfirst into a marriage with Wieters with expectations of an All-Star caliber season. I expressed this belief on Twitter and on a pair of message boards I used to frequent. I also marveled at Wieters’ draft position being above Chris Iannetta’s in this review of a mock draft I was in. While I was decidedly wrong on Iannetta, it does show that I’m not blowing smoke re: Wieters.

Razzball was on target, too. Any outlet that suggested caution with Wieters wasn’t downing his merits as a top prospect in the grand scheme, just tempering expectations for his debut season. It is one thing to move from the minors to majors as a position player in the infield or outfield and it is quite another to do so behind the plate. Geovany Soto’s surprise 2008 season was fresh in the minds of those highest on Wieters with the rationale that if Soto can do what he did, the better, more heralded Wieters can TOP those numbers.

What you may not realize is that Wieters’ debut wasn’t abnormal of what we should expect from a rookie catcher. And while he wasn’t exemplary, he wasn’t a bust either. Over the past 20 years, there have been just seven catchers to log 300+ at-bats in their first season (note: the Play Index doesn’t differentiate between rookie qualified and 1st seasons, so while Mike Piazza and Geovany Soto [and others I’m sure] had excellent rookie seasons, they weren’t factored in because of the PI limitations). Of those seven, Kenji Johjima posted the best Adjusted OPS (OPS+) with a 103 and he was 95 years old (actually, 30). Wieters’ 95 OPS+ was 4th. Rarely is a catcher even given a legitimate chance out of the chute and in the instances where they are, there isn’t instance success at the dish. Furthering the point, in the last 30 years, there have been four Rookie of Year winners (Soto, Piazza, Sandy Alomar and Benito Santiago) that played catcher.

So that’s all the long way of saying that my relatively high opinion of Wieters hasn’t changed based on his first 354 at-bats. In 2010, he will take a big step toward the lofty projections heaped upon him last year. He still might not do the .300-30-100 dream season many foresee now and for years to come, but he should build off of the positives he showed throughout the season and specifically in final month of the season while learning from struggles he experienced upon being called up. His value will vary from league to league with some downing him after last year while others boost him as a perfect post-hype sleeper candidate. I don’t think he will have much sleeper value because he certainly hasn’t fallen off the radar. Sure, there is a contingent that over drafted him and might swear off of him, but the phrase is “hell hath no fury like a woman scorned,” not “like a fantasy baseball owner scorned” so that group should just get over their own stupid move and realize that Wieters is a much wiser pick this year than he was in 2009.

Wieters in 2009: .288-35-9-43-0
Wieters in 2010*: .292-86-25-82-0

(*–this assumes Wieters is moved up in the order batting 4th or 5th with some combination of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold flanking or ahead of him. )

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Player Focus, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Friday: 10.30.2009

2010 Focus: Carlos Beltran

When you lose 81 games on your season, you tend to be forgotten by a large group of the fantasy baseball population. And it doesn’t matter if you’re a bona fide superstar like Carlos Beltran either. He made the 2009 All-Star team, but he won’t show up near the top of any 2009 leaderboards and though he played 19 games in September, those were meaningless ones for the out-of-contention Mets so he was absent from the public eye virtually all summer. It would be a BIG mistake to forget about Carlos Beltran for 2010. (And by forget, I don’t mean he’ll go in the 12th round. He’s a 2nd round guy in most leagues and his 81 games missed could drop him as many as two rounds. Injury bounce backs make championship seasons. Just ask Aaron Hill and Chris Carpenter owners.)

Barring injury-shortened seasons, Beltran has had 100+ RBIs in all but one season, 100+ runs scored in all but two, 23+ stolen bases in all two and 22+ home runs in all but one. His 2000 and 2009 seasons were cut to 98 and 81 games, respectively while 2005, his first in New York, is the only real “bust” season on his record. He played 151 games, so you can’t classify it as injury-shortened, but he battled nagging injuries throughout that year because he didn’t want to sit out for extended periods of time as he wanted to justify his new fat contract in the spotlight of New York.

Since that debut season, he has posted a .286/.379/.531 line with 111 home runs, 386 runs scored, 388 RBIs, 77 stolen bases and a 136 OPS+ in 1978 at-bats. He will turn 33 shortly after the 2010 season starts which is an automatic red flag for some, but if you get caught up in age too much without any context for the individual player then you will do yourself a huge disservice. A-Rod turns 34 in 2010 and you’d better believe that he is still a first round pick. The age factor would be viable if Beltran was showing any signs of slowing down, but he had seasons of 150, 126, 129 OPS+ leading into 2009. And he was on a killer pace with a 141 OPS+ before getting hurt this year. He may run less, but no one should be looking for much more than 20 these days anyway. The last four years prior to 2009 have yielded two low 20s and two high teens outputs (17, 18, 23, 25 since 2005).

So what should we expect from a 2010 Beltran? Based on where he has been since 2004, it would be unwise to bet on the .325 average we saw in a half season of 2009 or even anything close to that. Had he held that pace, it would have been a career high and 51 points than the .274 he has established since 2004. He will earn a high OBP with his eye and there is never a shortage of extra base hits pumping his SLG up. I expect something along the lines of: .280/.375/.510 with 100 runs, 24 home runs, 115 RBIs and 23 stolen bases. That is an elite season worthy of at least a 2nd round pick, if not a late 1st depending on your league size.

Don’t believe it’s anything special? Since 2005 there have only been 10 seasons where a player scored 100 runs, drove in 100 runs, hit 20+ home runs and stole 20+ bases. One of them belongs to Beltran (2008) while Alex Rodriguez and Bobby Abreu are the only two players to repeat the feat. The other five players are among the elite, too: Jason Bay (2005), Ryan Braun (2009), Hanley Ramirez (2009), Alfonso Soriano (2005) and David Wright (2007).

In the last 10 years, there have only 15 instances of that season and Beltran owns five of them. Even loosening the criteria to R>=90, HR>=20, SB>=15 and RBI>=90 shows how amazing Beltran has been. There have been 45 of those seasons since 2000 and he is second to A-Rod (eight) with seven. While I wouldn’t be surprised if Beltran is discounted in drafts because of his age and injury, don’t chance it by letting him hang out there too long. I’d rather lock him up on my terms than keep waiting and hoping he falls. For auction leagues, Beltran is the perfect kind of player to target. His cost is front and center so you will know if there is a discount to be had or not.

Beltran in 2009: .325-50-10-48-11
Beltran in 2010: .280-100-24-115-23

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 10.28.2009

The Top 12s – v1.0

I was originally going to post my weekly NFL piece, but I realized that Wednesday was in fact too late as Wednesday is usually when everyone kind of turns the page on the week that was and starts to look at the week ahead. Instead, I will post my first edition of the top 12 lists at every position for 2010. I posted a few here already and all of them were featured at OwnersEdge.com recently. I am just going to post the lists here without the commentary on everyone since 1) I’ve already posted it elsewhere and 2) a lot of it is dated because it was written awhile back and I don’t think it’s necessary to update it until the calendar turns to 2010.

CATCHER
1. Joe Mauer
2. Victor Martinez
3. Brian McCann
4. Mike Napoli
5. Russell Martin
6. Jorge Posada
7. Matt Wieters
8. Geovany Soto
9. Chris Iannetta
10. Kurt Suzuki
11. Bengie Molina
12. A.J. Pierzynski

FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Prince Fielder
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Justin Morneau
6. Mark Reynolds
7. Ryan Howard
8. Joey Votto
9. Adrian Gonzalez
10. Adam Dunn
11. Kevin Youkilis
12. Kendry Morales

SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley
2. Brian Roberts
3. Ian Kinsler
4. Robinson Cano
5. Aaron Hill
6. Dustin Pedroia
7. Brandon Phillips
8. Ben Zobrist
9. Jose Lopez
10. Asdrubal Cabrera
11. Orlando Hudson
12. Rickie Weeks

SHORTSTOP
1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Jose Reyes
3. Troy Tulowitzki
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Derek Jeter
6. Alexei Ramirez
7. Jason Bartlett
8. Asdrubal Cabrera
9. Yunel Escobar
10. Elvis Andrus
11. Miguel Tejada
12. Erick Aybar

THIRD BASE
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. David Wright
3. Mark Reynolds
4. Evan Longoria
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Chone Figgins
7. Kevin Youkilis
8. Aramis Ramirez
9. Pablo Sandoval
10. Michael Young
11. Chipper Jones
12. Gordon Beckham

OUTFIELD
1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Carl Crawford
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Matt Holliday
7. Ichiro Suzuki
8. Carlos Beltran
9. Bobby Abreu
10. Justin Upton
11. Jason Bay
12. Adam Dunn

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Johan Santana
3. Roy Halladay
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Dan Haren
6. CC Sabathia
7. Zack Greinke
8. Josh Beckett
9. Javier Vazquez
10. Cliff Lee
11. Justin Verlander
12. Chris Carpenter

Top 12 Overall
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Chase Utley
4. Matt Kemp
5. Ryan Braun
6. Carl Crawford
7. Alex Rodriguez
8. Joe Mauer
9. David Wright
10. Miguel Cabrera
11. Prince Fielder
12. Justin Morneau

Just Missed: Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Mark Reynolds, Mark Teixeira, Grady Sizemore, all starting pitchers

The collection on OwnersEdge.com (sub. req.) –
Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV
Part V
Part VI
Part VII

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Top 12 | 2 Comments »

Thursday: 08.27.2009

2010: Top 12 Second Basemen

Continuing around the diamond with the top 12 lists for 2010 with second base:

SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley
2. Brian Roberts
3. Ian Kinsler
4. Robinson Cano
5. Aaron Hill
6. Dustin Pedroia
7. Brandon Phillips
8. Ben Zobrist
9. Jose Lopez
10. Asdrubal Cabrera
11. Orlando Hudson
12. Rickie Weeks

A position often thought to be very thin has started to show some depth mostly with veterans getting better as opposed to several significant newcomers emerging.

-What got the most feedback from my article on the first round for next year? Well it was actually the inclusion of Joe Mauer, but right there was the placement of Chase Utley in the third spot. He doesn’t get enough credit for his greatness. Coming into the season, many were worried he would miss significant time coming off of his hip surgery instead he’s on pace for his best season yet. If he keeps pace, he will set career highs in four of the categories used in standard 5×5 leagues. He would need an otherworldly September to top 2007’s .332 batting average, but his current .303 is nothing to criticize.

-I am tired of Ian Kinsler and that’s why he’s not second. More on that in a minute. Despite the drop in stolen bases for the second straight season by Brian Roberts, he is still fifth in the American League and on pace for 35. Thanks to a high powered offense in Baltimore, Roberts is on pace for a career high in RBIs with 77 and he has already set his highest total in four years. He is also on pace to set a career high in runs scored (119) and match his career high of 18 home runs so he has more than made up for his dip in speed. Roberts is also on pace for his third straight season of 155 or more games played, something you just don’t get from Kinsler and that is a big reason why Roberts slotted in behind Utley.

-Kinsler is on pace for a 30-30 seasons with 100+ runs scored and 90+ driven in, so why am I sick of him? One reason is that even though he’s on pace for a career high in games played by a huge margin, it is still just 144. This guy cannot make it through a season without getting hurt and missing a chunk of time. Secondly, his .244 is annoying. The missed time is a big hindrance to him putting it all together, but he finally creeps toward the 600 at-bat mark in a season and his batting average tanks. He is in the throes of his prime and just because I didn’t list him second as many others will doesn’t mean I think he sucks. He has got an amazing season coming within the next 2-3 years. Something that approaches or reaches 40-40 with an average above .290 in 155 games, but pinpointing when that will come is difficult so for now I have the more reliable Roberts ahead of Kinsler, but I’d happy slot any one of the three in at second base on my team at a handsome price/early draft pick.

–Robinson Cano had a down season in 2008 when compared against his first three seasons, but he was still useful. Of course when you cut 48 points off your on-base percentage and 35 points off of your batting average, it’s going to depress your counting stats. Both his runs scored and runs batted in saw drops of more than 20 from 2007 to 2008, but he has rebounded remarkably well in 2009 already posting a career high in home runs with 20 and counting. He is also on pace to set a career high in runs scored in that high octane offense. In the midst of his prime and part of a remarkably strong offense, Cano has several more productive seasons ahead of him to match the four of five excellent ones already on his ledger.

-I don’t mean to toot my horn just for the sake of bragging, but I listed Aaron Hill as a sleeper back in early March. Hill has exceeded even my expectations setting career highs in home runs and RBIs already with a great shot at doing the same in runs scored. The 2007 was the gauge for Hill’s potential and the approach I took was to just strike 2008 from the record in terms of judging Hill because it was a lost season ravaged by injuries. Hill profiles as a high 20s-low 30s home run hitter (as opposed to the 39 he is pacing for right now) with a good batting average and strong counting stats for the next few seasons.

-I get the feeling based on some things I read that there were expectations of Dustin Pedroia to actually step up yet another level after his MVP campaign in 2008. I really can’t imagine why anyone would expect/bet on him topping the 17 home run total he had last year and there was no reason he couldn’t dip a little across the board and still be an elite option at second base. That said, only his power has scaled back as he paces towards 13 home runs and 73 RBIs after 17 and 83 last year. He is on pace to re-establish career highs in runs scored and stolen bases. I have mentioned several times this season that the runs scored category is highly underrated so you might hear something said like, “Pedroia isn’t elite in any one category, yet he’s solid across the board.” The latter part of that statement is true, he is very solid, but he is definitely elite as a run scorer. A lot of that comes from your teammates driving you in, but you don’t just happen into the third highest runs scored total in the American League. A .300 batting average and .374 on-base percentage create the opportunities to be driven in that often.

-His 30-30 season from 2007 is starting to look more and more like the outlier on his career, but that doesn’t mean that Brandon Phillips isn’t still a top tier second baseman. His batting average (currently at .262) is the only category that isn’t a plus-category for Phillips. He’s a great power-speed combo with very good runs scored and driven in. Apart from a nice jump in RBIs, his 2009 has been virtually a carbon copy of 2008 and that’s not a bad thing. Fantasy owners need to stop paying for the 30-30 season and let Phillips value settle properly in the range appropriate for the 2008 and 2009 numbers he put up.

-On Monday I suggested that Mark Reynolds might be the most controversial pick in 2010 because each league will react in their own way to his amazing breakout season. To a lesser extent, the same can be said for Ben Zobrist. His breakout has been even more unexpected than Reynolds’ making him tougher to project going forward, especially at age 28. His multi-position eligibility (ranging from 2B and OF in most leagues to 2B-SS-3B-OF in the most liberal of leagues) combined with an elite power-speed combo displayed in limited time this season is appealing. That he is on pace for a .292-97-30-90-20 is mind blowing enough on its own, but considering it is being done in a role pacing for fewer than 500 at-bats is just insane. The numbers are propped up by some really strong skills including 75 walks, an expected batting average mirroring his actual and a hit rate that is higher than last year’s, but hardly unsustainable. How much do you risk on a 29-year old repeating something like this?

-Raise your hand if you cut bait on Jose Lopez after his dismal May in which he hit .214 with a .587 OPS. Every single season there are several players like this that struggle early and get discarded or traded off to the patient owner that believes the player will straighten out over the season and end up at or above the levels established over the past three seasons. Lopez has already set a career high in home runs (18) and he is on pace to crush his career high of 89 RBIs set last year (pacing to 101).

-Have you noticed the growth of Asdrubal Cabrera this season? He has shown improvements in all five major roto categories. And it hasn’t just been more playing time, his OPS is up 100 points while his batting average has shot up 56 points. He will be just 24 next year so he is just scraping the surface of his potential. This year saw a major spike in speed (15 stolen bases, up from four last year) and the power spike should be next. Of course, it could be tough in that park. His slugging percentage has already jumped up 83 points from last year, but that has manifested in the form of doubles since Progressive Field is the league’s worst park for home runs. It was 3rd-worst last year, so there is some legitimacy to home run restrictions there.

–Orlando Hudson isn’t exemplary at any one category. You never pinpoint a category and find that Hudson is the answer to moving that needle like Ryan Howard in home runs, Joe Mauer in batting average or Jacoby Ellsbury in stolen bases. Hudson is one of those “glue guys” that gives a solid contribution everywhere and rates higher than someone like Ian Stewart because he doesn’t decimate any of your categories.

-Wouldn’t you know it that Rickie Weeks would enjoy a great start and appear on pace for a career season only to be knocked out for the season with a wrist injury. Wrist injuries are scary with respect to power, but Weeks has been on the shelf for a long time already (since May 18th) so hopefully that will help alleviate the lingering effects heading into 2010. Though he has seemingly been around forever, he will be just 27 next year and I still think he has a breakout 20-20 season in his future. It might not come until 2011, but he will be a great value in 2010 thanks to the injury-shortened season and the career .247 batting average that tends to scare many away from Weeks.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Tuesday: 08.25.2009

2010: Top 12 First Basemen

Continuing my way around the diamond, here is my initial thoughts on first base for next year:

FIRST BASE

1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Prince Fielder
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Justin Morneau
6. Mark Reynolds
7. Ryan Howard
8. Joey Votto
9. Adrian Gonzalez
10. Adam Dunn
11. Kevin Youkilis
12. Kendry Morales

–There is a lot of star power at first base, so it is tough to justify walking away empty-handed from this position unless you are stacked in the outfield and at third base. This list doesn’t even include Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee or Pablo Sandoval, which just goes to show you the depth at the position. Pujols has already put up a season’s worth of numbers and it’s still not even September. He clubbed his 40th home run on Sunday and is on pace for a career-high 52.

–Cabrera’s season has fallen under the radar in a sense. He’s been really good, but he hasn’t had a super hot three-week stretch or anything like that, so your natural inclination might be to think he is having a down year. But a season on pace for 33 home runs, 98 runs, 99 RBI and a .338 average is anything but down.

–Get your mind around this: Fielder won’t turn 26 until next May, yet he has got 2,235 at-bats and 147 home runs already on his record. With 50 home runs becoming special again, owning Fielder means you are rostering one of the select few capable of reaching that figure in any given season.

–Teixeira at No. 4 represents a shift in where I was when I put together my first round for 2010 a few weeks ago. I had Morneau in at 12th and Teix on the cusp. I’ve flipped the two through no fault of Morneau’s. If Teixeira is going to be playing that stadium, he can be a perennial 40-home run threat and that just barely gives him the nod over Morneau.

–Meanwhile, Morneau is as consistent as they come as plows towards his third 30-110 in four years. He is on pace for a career high in runs scored this year, as he is set to top 100 for the first time. He is batting .298 this year, which also happens to be his average over the past four seasons, with 2007’s .271 holding him just under the .300 mark.

–I debated on whether or not to include the multi-qualifiers at just the position I thought they were most valuable at or put them in both rankings. I’ve gone with putting them in both, so here is Reynolds’ debut, but we’ll see him again soon. They are going to be entire articles in this winter’s fantasy magazines dedicated on where to pick Reynolds in 2010 and no two opinions will be the same. The power is legitimate; in fact it led to his inclusion in my sleeper list this year, but beyond things get hazy. Is he a 10-12 base stealer or can he really be counted on for 20-25 a year? How much of the average gains can he hold? He is still a strikeout machine, but that didn’t stop him from hitting .279 in his 366 at-bat rookie season and then .281 so far this year. There might not be a more controversial pick in 2010.

–After all the complaining about Howard’s power being down and 2009 being an off-year for him, he is now on pace for 43 home runs and 133 RBI. Yes, it is a tick down from the last three years, but it is still an excellent season and it is just another example of why you should wait until the end of the season to make definitive judgments on a player. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Howard went off over the last 41 games and his 14-15 home runs to reach the high-40s he has the past two seasons.

–Imagine if Votto hadn’t lost 30 games of his season this year to injuries and then a bout of depression. He is pacing towards a repeat of 2008, but in 30 fewer games played, which illustrates the kind of growth he had this year. He will be just 26 next year and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another step forward. At the very least, we should get a full season of the pace he was on this year, which would mean a .300-30-100 season. He could be a great value in 2010 if people focus on the seemingly stagnant home run and RBI totals without taking into account the missed at-bats.

–What an up-n-down season for Gonzalez. He was the toast of the town after 20 home runs and 40 RBI in the first two months before falling on hard times with just four homers and eight RBI in June and a .198 average in July. He has rebounded again in August and he is back on pace to top 40 home runs. If he keeps pace, he will have the 15th season in major league history with 40+ home runs and less than 100 RBI. The list includes luminaries such as Barry Bonds, Harmon Killebrew, Mickey Mantle (twice), Ken Griffey Jr. and Hank Aaron.

–Like Mark Reynolds, Dunn has experienced an unsuspected batting average boost that has rocketed his value. He’s hitting an absurd .323 on the road, while his .257 is more in line with what we have come to expect from Dunn. Even if his average regresses as I suspect it will, Dunn might be the most bankable power source in the game. He is on pace for a 6th straight 40-homer season in an era where we have seen just 14 other such seasons in the past three seasons across all of baseball. Outfield flexibility only adds to Dunn’s value.

–I was surprised to find some outlets suggest that Youkilis’ 2008 was a fluke and project him to regress back to a mid-teens power hitter. Though clearly not much of a fighter, the guy is an excellent big league hitter and should enjoy another two to three seasons at his peak which equates to an amped up Kevin Millar clone. The tail end of his career arc will follow more closely to the Millar we’ve seen the past few seasons. I like Youkilis more at third base because of the depth here and dearth at the hot corner, but if you land an elite third basemen, then he is a solid guy to plug in at first.

–You’re probably thinking one thing when you see Kendry Morales’ breakout season: FINALLY!!! There were high expectations for the Cuban import, but he failed to get his career off the ground in three short stints since 2006. Whether it was injury or lack of performance, he was just not panning out how many expected. Of course, he was only 23, 24 and 25 years old. At 26, it’d be unfair to call him a late bloomer, especially with only 377 at-bats on his record prior to this year. This breakout isn’t a fluke, as Morales joins the ranks at what has developed into a deep position yet again.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Fantasy Baseball, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Monday: 08.24.2009

2010: Top 12 Catchers

Today I’ll start to make my way around the diamond with a look at the top 12 for 2010 at catcher:

CATCHER
1. Joe Mauer
2. Victor Martinez
3. Brian McCann
4. Mike Napoli
5. Russell Martin
6. Jorge Posada
7. Matt Wieters
8. Geovany Soto
9. Chris Iannetta
10. Kurt Suzuki
11. Bengie Molina
12. A.J. Pierzynski

–This is a position still dominated by players with M-last names. I’ve been touting Mauer as a first-round pick in various outlets, as I believe the power is here to stay. The pace of power will likely slow, but he also doesn’t have a built in month off like he did coming into this season.

–Martinez is a perfect example of why you shouldn’t make too much out of a washed out season killed by injuries. He had four excellent seasons of work backing him up, but that didn’t keep him from dropping significantly in a lot of leagues. He’s now on pace for a career high in home runs (27).

–McCann had to suffer through an atrocious April (.195 average) before figuring out what was wrong. It turns out he couldn’t see. Once he got outfitted with a new pair of glasses, his season took off. He’s on pace for his 4th straight excellent season and he will be just 26 in 2010.

–Napoli’s ability has never been in question during his previous three seasons in the bigs. He had massive power and a batting average that was on the rise, but he just couldn’t stay on the field. His career high prior to 2009 was 268 at-bats. Now he’s at 306 and on pace for 450+, which should yield career highs in home runs and RBI. He’s continued his batting average spike sitting at .294 this season and will remain in his prime when he turns 28 on Halloween this year.

–Martin has had a busted season, but has still carried plenty of value at catcher. He will be just 27 at the beginning of next season, so it’d be foolish to write him off after a down season.

–Like Martinez, Posada had an injury-riddled 2008, but he has bounced back as good as ever, especially for a 38-year-old. In that stadium, Posada remains viable even if only in 120-130 games.

Based on the expectations and absurd draft round in many leagues, Wieters has been a bust this season. He’s on pace to top 350 at-bats, yet he’s hitting just .264 and he’s on pace for a meager seven home runs and 33 RBI. Hell hath no fury like a fantasy player scorned. Wieters will drop to a more reasonable round in many leagues and below value in many others, but it’d be dumb to give up on him for not meeting the unrealistic expectations set upon him this season. He could be a classic post-hype sleeper depending on his 2009 finish.

–The reigning National League Rookie of the Year has flopped this year to say the least. Geovany Soto has hit .217 and has just nine home runs this season. He’s been ravaged by injuries and managed to play just 81 games, which sets up a great potential value in 2010.

–I expected more out of Chris Iannetta in 2009, but the .221 batting average makes his season look a lot worse than it has been. He is on pace for a useful 21 home runs and 72 RBI, but he once again failed to play anything approaching a full season – even for a catcher (on pace for 118 games). He has a sharp eye, big power and turns just 27 next year.

–Suzuki has made big strides again in 2009, adding some solid power to his game and becoming a viable catcher option across all league formats. He is on pace to top 70 runs scored and runs driven in, which isn’t too bad in Oakland’s putrid offense.

–The emergence of Buster Posey puts Molina’s 2010 home in doubt. Regardless of where he plays, he is going to be a late-round option that is worth more than his draft position with legitimate power and an average that won’t kill you. He can be a disaster in OBP league (.280), but plays well in standard 5x5s.

–Pierzynski is like Molina in that neither are particularly exciting picks, yet both have value and are capable of being much better than their draft position.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Strategy | 4 Comments »

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