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Monday: 05.25.2009

It’s Still Early

I realize we’ve reached Memorial Day and that is often a signpost for people to start reacting to numbers, whether by individuals or what your team as a whole has put up. While I am not against using today as a day to start aggressively looking at your team and trying to pinpoint weaknesses, I would caution that it is still early. If you follow me on Twitter, you have probably seen me lament (whine?) about my terrible pitching staff in my 10-team 4×4 AL Only league. We use just six pitching spots with 4 SP and 2 RP. Comprised initially of Scott Baker, Dallas Braden (qualified RP) Felix Hernandez, David Purcey, Andrew Sonnanstine and Joakim Soria, I watched as my ERA started poorly (4.93 after week 1) and just rose meteorically into the stratosphere (5.49 by week 3 and above 5.00 until week 6). I eventually shuffled Purcey out for Kyle Davies, but he was back to being Kyle Davies by the time I got him. Once Soria hit the DL, I scooped Scott Feldman and Josh Outman, but nothing worked.

Every time I got a nice outing, Sonnanstine was there to completely erase it and then some. Feldman gave me two strong starts, but Sonnanstine wasn’t having any of it. Then Outman comes along and starts throwing brilliantly, but Baker was there in a flash to cut out that nonsense. I was starting to get frustrated as my ERA hovered at, around or above 5.00 deep into May. Finally, I made a real move. I traded some of my offensive depth for another arm. I don’t think there’s a single media outlet that I participate in where I haven’t suggested buying low on Baker and his teammated Kevin Slowey. So I practiced what I was preaching and grabbed Slowey for Shin-Soo Choo. But alas, Baker and Hernandez both crapped the bed in their first starts of the week and I figured here we go again. However, that proved NOT to be a precursor of things to come for the Kramerica Industries. The first starts of Baker and Hernandez would stand as the only non-quality starts out of nine for my team. Feldman and Sonnanstine threw very strong games, each notching a win. Newcomer Slowey enjoyed an excellent debut on my team with his third straight gem going 7+ and grabbing a W.

But the All-Star was Outman (great name for a starting pitcher, btw… much better than Balfour). Coming off of a struggle against Toronto, I picked him up in a free agent buy on May 10th for just a $1 (real $, not FAAB). I targeted him mainly because of his nice K-rate (despite not counting Ks in this league), quality home park and upcoming schedule. He had the lowly Royals, the Rays (who can’t seem to beat lefties according to my good friend Jason Collette… more on that in a second) and the D’Backs. I was set to give him a 3-start audition with the last coming on the day of our next buy. He certainly couldn’t be any worse than what I was getting. Just as I drew it up he beat KC handily, STEAMROLLED the Rays and played with fire (5 BB/0 K) & escaped against the D’Backs. The latter two came in week 7 giving him 13+ IP of 0.66 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Back to the Rays vs. southpaws for a minute. Though I went with Collette on that one as he’s a diehard Rays fan, I was blown away when I saw that the Rays actually have the most runs scored against lefties by a wide margin. That said, Outman got the best of them, lefty Brett Anderson wasn’t terribly sharp by still got his first major-league win and Dallas Braden was strong through seven but the Rays beat up righties Andrew Bailey and Brad Ziegler to salvage a win in the 3-game set.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that Hernandez and Baker redeemed themselves on Sunday going a combined 16+ innings allowing just four runs and 15 base runners good for a 2.21 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 2 wins. All told, my six starters went 60+ innings of 3.12 ERA and 1.17 WHIP while going 6-2. I lowered my ERA from 4.98 to 4.60 and my WHIP from 1.42 to 1.37 which brings me back to my original point: it is still early enough that a strong week can drastically move the needle on your numbers. This was a very good week for my starters, but it wasn’t some otherworldly performance that can’t be duplicated a couple more times in the next month or so. Yes at-bat and inning totals are piling up as we get ready to flip the calendar to June, but don’t give up on a category and just say, “Oh it’s too late, I’m buried in that… might as well forget about it.” If you’re going to do that, you might as well forget about your season.

Another tip, and this works especially well for offensive categories, is to sort through your league history and see what the winning total was a year ago. See how the top team in your standings is currently pacing. Chances are they are set to blow last year’s winning mark out of the water meaning they are likely to regress. Check your pace as well. We’re about 30% through the season which means there is still a TON of time left and outside of a team just LITTERED with catastrophic injuries, no one should be throwing in the towel yet.

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Friday: 05.22.2009

Around the Diamond – 5.22.09

Let’s go Around the Diamond:

FIRST BASE
Adrian Gonzalez hit his 16th home run, which is excellent for him, but why in the world is he getting ANYTHING to hit right now? He’s the only major league hitter in their lineup right now. OK, maybe Scott Hairston with his .978 OPS and 5 HR & 5 SB in 107 ABs. But seriously, I cannot understand how Gonzalez has avoided the Barry Bonds treatment given how well he is doing, especially on the road. Anyway it’s great news for his fantasy baseball owners as he continues smash the ball. Meanwhile his Padres have won 7 straight and skyrocketed up to 2nd in the NL West.

SECOND BASE
It has been an awful quarter-season for the Cleveland Indians despite Cliff Lee following up his Cy Young season very nicely with a 2.90 ERA so far, Victor Martinez rising from the depths of last season with 7 HR already and Shin-Soo Choo proving his second half from 2008 was legitimate. Asdrubal Cabrera, like Choo, is showing that his .306 batting average & 8 HR performance in the second half of last year was a precursor for things to come. He has taken his .319 average, .380 on-base percentage and seven stolen bases to the leadoff spot in place of the struggling Grady Sizemore. The HR power hasn’t been there yet, but he is on pace for 46 2Bs. Most impressive about his 7 SBs so far is the 100% SB rate after going just 4-for-8 last year.

SHORTSTOP
It’s been a career quarter-season for Tampa Bay’s Jason Bartlett as he has already set a career high in home runs with 6 and could top his career high of 23 SB by the All-Star Break given how often the Rays run. Did I mention he is also hitting .375, good for 2nd-best in all of baseball? I told you it was the makings of a career year.

THIRD BASE
Mike Fontenot is losing at-bats to the likes of Bobby Scales thanks to a .140 May average in 50 at-bats. He was sharp in limited play last year which pumped up the expectations for him with full time at-bats coming into 2009, but so far he has been a limited power source while offering nothing else. His struggles appear to be a microcosm of the Cubs’ season so far. They are the 10th-best offense in the National League in terms of OPS and only five regulars have enough at-bats to qualify for the Batting Average title. Fontenot is better than a sub-Mendoza .193 batting average, but it will be hard for him to correct the issues from the bench. I wouldn’t cut bait just yet as nearly half of his hits (10 of 23) have gone for extra bases and he has nearly a 100-point split between his average and on-base percentage.

CATCHER
It seems if you have a last name that starts with an “M” and you’re a catcher-you’ve got a shot at being pretty good. It’s not just the 28 Molinas, either. Joe Mauer has been brilliant since his return hitting .429 with 9 HR and 28 RBI in just 77 at-bats. Almost as impressive is the fact that he has more walks than strikeouts. In fact, that is a common trait of some of the elite catchers so far this season. Both Mauer and Yadier Molina have 11 Ks to 15 BBs, Brian McCann has 10 Ks to 12 BBs, but Victor Martinez is back in a big way this year leading the majors in hitting at .384 but also just 17 Ks to his 25 BBs. Even Russell Martin’s ratio is very impressive despite having struck out more than he has walked. He is second to Martinez with 24 BBs and has just 30 Ks. Anything below 1.0 on a K:BB ratio is excellent while being at or near 1.0 is also very good. Once a player nears the 2.0 mark is when trouble ensues.

OUTFIELD
Baltimore’s Adam Jones is making a legitimate push for inclusion in the American League starting outfield for the All-Star game. Unfortunately, there is very little chance that gets voted in. There is always much debate and consternation over the fan voting process. Should it just be the half-season performance or a longer track record of quality performance? Is it fine to vote for whom you want to see regardless of performance (within reason) or are the fans obligated to put in the most “deserving” players? I think despite all of the annual groaning and moaning, the Midsummer Classic always has enough star power and ends being just fine—except when there is a tie. Back to Jones, he is hitting .372 with 9 HRs and 30 RBIs. Though perceived as a speedster, he has just 3 SBs and his career high in any year is 16 in 2006. His improvements give Baltimore an incredible 1-2-3 to with Brian Roberts, Jones and Nick Markakis.

And there is more firepower in the making for the O’s in the form of Nolan Reimold, who hit his 2nd home run tonight. He was hitting .394/.485/.743 with 9 HR, 27 RBI and 6 SB in 109 ABs at AAA-Norfolk. He is now in the midst of a 6-game hitting streak, but he might not stick around with the return of Luke Scott. That said, he most definitely SHOULD stick around for at least a good 150 ABs to see how he can do in the bigs. I think we’re done with the Felix Pie experiment despite just 83 at-bats. He is just 24 years old and has only 343 major league ABs, but he’s shown absolutely nothing thus far. If not Pie, Reimold is surely more deserving of a roster spot than Ty Wigginton or Lou Montanez. Either way, I think he deserves a good 100+ AB sample to show whether or not he’s ready, but I’m afraid he won’t be afforded as much.

Congratulations to Michael Cuddyer for notching baseball’s 112th cycle of the season. OK, so it was only the 4th, but that’s a lot for a season let alone a season not yet through May. It was also the 2nd by a Minnesota Twin. Cuddyer has raised his batting average an astounding 40 points since May 18th thanks to a 12-for-23 tear that his included 4 HR and 12 RBIs. Delmon Young might want to put his house on the market because there just aren’t going to be ABs for him in Minnesota. Carlos Gomez couldn’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag, but he has strong defense while Cuddyer, Denard Span and Jason Kubel are hitting remarkably well this season. Young is still just 23 and I do think he will emerge into a very strong player, but I just don’t know if it happens in Minnesota. Cuddyer is the oldest of the bunch and still just 30 years old and signed through 2010 with an option for ’11. Young, meanwhile, is only signed through the end of this year.

PITCHER
Moving to the mound, but staying in Minnesota, Kevin Slowey continued his resurgence with a third straight strong start. He went 7+ strong giving up 2 while striking out 4 and of course walking nobody. I say of course because he’s walked just four all year. He is now 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 14-to-2 K:BB ratio in his last three starts. His season ERA now sits at 4.23 which is a far cry from the 5.51 it was at when he started this mini run. I’ve been advocating him all season despite the high ERA because of his brilliant control. I just didn’t see any way someone with his skills would continue with such a poor ERA. With a 6-1 record and an ERA no longer residing in the stratosphere, the window to buy low is likely shut entirely. I’d still pay dollar-to-dollar to get him.

Kenshin Kawakami was awful in April thanks in large part to an 8 ER outing that closed the month and boosted his ERA to 7.06. As such, he was being mentioned as a candidate for removal from the rotation to be replaced by phenom Tommy Hanson or surprise minor leaguer, Kris Medlen. Alas he was not replaced and he’s responded with a pretty strong May included the best start of his season on Friday night against the league’s best scoring offense. He shut out the Blue Jays for 8 innings matching Roy Halladay pitch for pitch in a 1-0 battle. Kawakami outlasted the uber-ace yielding just 3 hits while striking out 7 and walking nobody. His ERA is back down to a 4.73 and he has managed an impressive 8.2 K/9.

Kyle Farnsworthless is apparently not too keen on the nickname I’ve given him. In fact, I’ve had to table the moniker for a whole month as Farnsworth hasn’t yielded a run since April 21st. He has gone 12 straight appearances spanning 12 and 2/3rds innings striking out 12 and walking just 2. Now is the part where I mention they have lost 8 of those 12 games and 5 of them were by 4 or more runs. Three of the four wins were by 6+ runs. In the 4th win, they were down 5-1 in the top of the 9th when he pitched and they came back to win it 6-5 in the bottom of the 9th. I’ll get to use my nickname again… just as soon as the Royals foolishly insert him into a high leverage situation. Don’t buy this stretch.

Finally, George Sherrill has taken over as the undisputed closer in Baltimore. Forget for a second that Chris Ray has absolutely sucked, the reason is because Sherrill has been very good. A couple of 2-run outings inflated his ERA in April, but he has allowed just one run in eight May appearances bringing his ERA to 3.06. He has 4 SVs and 9 Ks in that same stretch. He has only allowed 9 base runners, but 5 have been via the walk. Sherrill only walked 2 in April so he can exhibit some control from time to time, but regardless you can’t deny how well he has pitched in May. Whether Erik Bedard continues to pitch with a sub-3.00 ERA or not, it is clear that the Baltimore Orioles got more than a fair return for him when they traded with Seattle. I’ve covered two of the pieces coming back just in this show and another, Chris Tillman, is 5-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 44 Ks in eight starts spanning 38 innings in AAA-Norfolk. If the O’s were in just about any other division, they would be contenders by 2010, but in that AL East it is tough to know whether they will have enough firepower to overcome that amazingly deep division.

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Monday: 05.18.2009

Around the Diamond

Tomorrow will mark the return of my podcast under a new format that will go “around the diamond” using the positions on a baseball field as the segments to break up the show. While I may cover a few things at some positions depending on how much news there is in a given night, I will do no less than one bit from 1st base, 2nd base, Shortstop, 3rd Base and Catcher; three bit from the Outfield and two-three from the mound generally two about starters and one about a reliever. I had hoped to kick off tonight, but I can barely keep my eyes open after a long day at work so I’m going to post the topics without the accompanying sound tonight:

FIRST BASE
With two more home runs tonight, any chance to buy low on Mark Teixeira has completely vanished. He is hitting .316 since May 4th raising his average 44 points to .239 and he’s hit seven home runs with 18 RBIs in the same span. His OPS is an eye-popping 1.158 thanks to a gaudy .754 SLG. I owned him in four leagues and turned down multiple offers at different points during his slump. Some of the offers were really good, but I just knew he would come out the funk so I passed and it has paid dividends.

SECOND BASE
Over at the Owner’s Edge for fanball.com, I wrote a two-part predictions piece where I made a series of “unconventional” predictions. Essentially, they were supposed to be daring but with some shred of statistical basis. Atop my list for hitters predictions was that Rickie Weeks would hit 20 HRs and nab 30 SBs. And while I’m way off pace as of today thanks to his diminished speed output, my main point for these predictions was to bring the spotlight on to some guys that other fantasy owners could target. So while I wouldn’t have considered the prediction a win, I definitely felt good about pointing out Weeks as a potential breakthrough candidate for 2009… that is until it was announced today that he would be out for the remainder of the season with a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. He was on pace for .272-39 HR-105 RBI-123 R-9 SB. I’d have settled for 75% of that pace and completely forgiven him for the menial SB output.

As for the Brewers, who knows how they will move forward. Craig Counsell seems to risky as an everyday player having not topped 372 at-bats since 2005. Is Alcides the answer? No, not Escobar-their hot SS prospect. Hernan Alcides Iribarren has hit .314 in 2099 minor league at-bats, but just 14 major league at-bats to his name. No way he can fill the entire void, but quality glove work and a .275 average would be adequate.

SHORTSTOP
With a 3-for-3, 5 RBI performance tonight, Jason Bartlett continued his career year raising his average to .384. More impressive is the massive 1.010 OPS thanks to 16 extra-base hits. With 11 stolen bases, he is already halfway to his 2008 total of 20.

THIRD BASE
I was really impressed with the Adam Dunn signing in Washington this offseason. Not really because they needed an outfielder (of course, they didn’t), but because they had a bunch of quality hitters that fit several different spots in a lineup well except 4th. Absolutely no cleanup hitters in the group which led to the likes of Nick Johnson, Austin Kearns, Lastings Milledge and Dmitri Young manning the role for large segments of last year. I think the notion of protection is definitely overrated by many, but that doesn’t mean it’s completely non-existent. See Ortiz, David post-Manny and Ethier, Andre with Manny. Dunn protects Ryan Zimmerman and the results have been nothing short of amazing. Zimm is hitting .358 so far this season including a 30-game hit streak along with 10 HRs and 31 RBIs. He is on pace to smash his career highs and though his numbers will even out a bit, he is still headed for a banner season.

OUTFIELD
The hard times that have beset Dexter Fowler and the false start to Matt LaPorta‘s major league career will likely bring one of the fantasy baseball world’s biggest flaws: blanket judgments of a player off of small sample sizes. Both prospects rate #1 in their organization according to Baseball HQ’s Minor League Analyst, yet I guarantee you there are throngs of keeper leagues across the nation where their value has shrunk 10-fold since the beginning of the season because they aren’t pulling a Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria. Fowler less so than LaPorta because the 5-stolen base game is a nice landmark that is still fresh in the minds of many. But regardless, neither should have experienced the slightest drop in value thanks to 31 (LaPorta) and 112 (Fowler) at-bats. Keeper league players, test the waters on both and I guarantee the asking price isn’t what it was seven weeks ago.

Speaking of small sample sizes, Nick Swisher was hitting .312 with 7 HR through April 30th. He is now hitting .236 with 8 HRs. He is who we thought he was, well most of us at least. Had I owned him in any league, there is NO chance I’d still own him after that April. He basically had his hot month (June in ’08, May in ’07) in April this season. But he is still the solid power, no average, good OBP guy he’s been FOREVER!

Rick Ankiel could return to the lineup on Wednesday and the Cardinals will welcome him with open arms! In 26 games with him, they average 5.4 runs per game and only 3.7 in the 11 games without him. He has just a .721 OPS with 2 HR so I am not about imply that he was the catalyst driving their offense, but they lost Ryan Ludwick while Ankiel was out and so they need a power bat back in the middle of the lineup to complement Albert Pujols.

CATCHER
A derivation of the phenomenon I discussed earlier is when fantasy baseball players put too much stock into a sample that is counter to a player’s proven record and subsequently over or under value that player severely in the following season. Examples of each in 2009 would be Gavin Floyd and Victor Martinez. Martinez is showing what some, but too few believed to be true: last year was an injury-riddled bust, plain & simple. It was decidedly NOT the beginning of the end as some predicted. A good friend of mine joined my 10-team AL-Only 2-keeper league this offseason and I was having a hard time getting him on the phone to lock in his final keeper with Grady Sizemore. Knowing him rather well and trusting my own instincts, I considered Martinez the no-brainer option.

He objected a bit when he found out saying he might’ve wanted to keep Francisco Liriano or one of the other few worthy options he had on his team. Since it was still a long time until draft day, I offered to let him rollback and get Liriano knowing full well I’d LOVE to get Martinez for myself. He passed and said he’ll see how it goes with Martinez. Needless to say, he is pretty pleased with judgment. Martinez has 3.5x the HR output of 2008 and he is still hitting over .400 thus far. He has been one of the very few bright spots on the lowly Indians thus far. And though there is still PLENTY of time in the season, I’m confident that he is next in the long line of players that proves that you can’t overreact to one aberrational season for better or worse.

PITCHING
The Cardinals are also set to get Chris Carpenter back on Wednesday. At 3-7 in their last 10 and players dropping like flies, getting their ace back along with one of their better power hitters is great news for the Cards who managed not to fall too far behind in the Central despite their bad luck with injuries. Adam Wainwright has been flawed so far this season leaving the rotation without a dominant ace and Carpenter will fulfill that role if healthy.

Wins are a cruel whore. Jorge de la Rosa and Randy Wolf have a combined 2.91 ERA in 99 innings with 91 K and 35 BB yet they’re a combined 2-4 (both wins by Wolf). Bronson Arroyo and Jason Marquis, de la Rosa’s teammate, have a combined 5.16 ERA in 110 innings with 50 K and 37 BB yet they’re a combined 10-6 (5-3 each). Don’t chase wins, they’ll give you chlamydia.

I’ll let you all know when the podcast is back up & running!

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Friday: 05.15.2009

K/BB as an ERA Indicator Addendum

Over at Owner’s Edge by Fanball.com, I wrote a piece about strikeout-to-walk ratios and how they relate to a pitcher’s ERA. I looked at the past two seasons to see how strong a correlation there was between K/BB ratio and ERA. If a strong enough relation existed, I wanted to use that information to see which pitchers stood out as buy-low or sell-high targets based on their K/BB and ERA thus far.

I was happy with the results in terms of the players identified, but some of my statistical conclusions left me a little uneasy, so I went back to the drawing board a bit. This time around, I went five years back and grabbed every qualifying ERA. This data set presented 393 samples with ERAs ranging from 2.27 to 6.47 and K/BB ratios from 8.3 to 1.1. I was comfortable with the depth of this set. In the original piece I used a 2.0 K/BB threshold, but given that 2.0 is the baseline that we generally look for in the fantasy baseball world, I thought it was a bit low for the purposes of what I’m looking to get out of the data.

I bumped it up to 2.5. At 2.0, it’s essentially a coinflip which isn’t surprising considering that it is hardly an elite mark. In fact there were 248 data points of 2.0 or better and it was a 60%/40% split of ERAs +/- 4.00. The worst ERA in the entire study, Eric Milton‘s disgusting 6.47 offering from 2005, actually topped the 2.0 threshold thanks to his sparkling 2.5 BB/9 rate. Moving to 2.5 cuts out the bottom 31 ERAs in the study and 46 of the bottom 50.

Here are the results with the deeper data pool and higher K/BB threshold:
k-bb ratio

4.00+ ERA

The above charts show that a 2.5+ K/BB ratio is three times more likely to yield a sub-4.00 ERA than not. Within a given season, there will be a group of pitchers whose skills should have netted them a better ERA, but poor defense or simply bad luck plagued them and left their skills unrewarded. The average was eight such starters per season. Given that recent trends have between 80 and 90 ERA qualifiers, it is about 9-10% of starting pitchers that get the short of the stick regardless of skills.

Here are some of the best buy-low opportunities who are also at risk of being part of this year’s batch of unlucky pitchers:

buy low

I don’t think you can really buy low on Justin Verlander given how unbelievably hot he has been lately striking out 9, 11, 11 and 13 in his past four starts. However all four of his AL Central counterparts on the list should come at legitimate discounts. I’d target Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey above all. His 0.9 BB/9 is amazing and while it might not hold 100%, he maintained a 1.3 in 160 IP last year so it’s unlikely to jump up too much. Rich Harden, Jon Lester and Jake Peavy won’t be bargain bin pick ups because of their gaudy strikeout totals (and because Harden and Peavy don’t have outrageous ERAs), but if you can get them at any discount, I’d recommend doing so immediately.

The at-risk group has it’s fair share of star power on it, too:

sell high

Three-fifths of the New York Yankees rotation is overachieving so far while the remaining two are getting obliterated (A.J. Burnett-5.36, Phil Hughes-7.56). And that over achievement has earned a record just one game above .500. Any regression could be very damaging and quickly push the Yankees to fourth in their division. But I actually expect Sabathia and Chamberlain to get better as we close out May and head into June. Sabathia will up his K-rate while Chamberlain will trim his BB-rate and continue to strikeout a batter per innings.

Jair Jurrjens and Brian Bannister are major red flags. We know what the bottom looks like for Bannister (1.9 K/BB in 183 IP last year led to 5.76 ERA), but Jurrjens flirted with the 2.0 threshold last year and ended up having a pretty successful year. Of course he did go for a sub-3.00 ERA in the first half and then regress heavily with a 4.49 in the second half. At least in 2008 he was straddling the limit with a 1.9 first half and 2.1 second half. I’d sell him instantly. And I’d have never bought Bannister so if you do have him, cash in that lottery ticket as soon as you can because it has an expiration date.

The names on this list that I’m least worried about are: Chad Billingsley, Max Scherzer and Matt Garza because of their strong K-rates of 9.3, 8.4 and 7.9, respectively. Yes Mitchell Boggs is toting an 8.1 K/9, but the last time he reached a mark that high was his final year at the University of Georgia in 2005 so I’m not buying it in the least with just 22 innings of work. As I mentioned earlier, I do think Chamberlain will turn it around, but there is still some risk because he has a nearly 10.0 H/9 rate to go with the gaudy BB-rate. There are concerns that he is trying to save himself to go six or seven innings and it’s causing him to be very hittable in the rare instances that he is actually in zone.

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Tuesday: 05.12.2009

Running Wild

Teams across the league are stealing bases as a rapid pace (pun completely intended) as compared to last year. On average, teams have swiped 20 bags apiece paced by Tampa Bay’s 53, who are of course paced by Carl Crawford and his 22 steals. Teams are on pace for a 101 average after 93 in 2008.

Meanwhile, Crawford’s stolen base total is better than 20 other teams!!! Crawford really caught everyone’s eye when he abused Jason Varitek to the tune of six stolen bases. This was after rookie Rockie Dexter Fowler burst onto the scene with five against the notoriously slow delivery of Chris Young. And now tonight, Jayson Werth grabbed four off of the Dodgers.

One of the vagaries of the game is that catchers take the full brunt of the blame when players run wild even though the pitcher is at least as culpable if not more so in many instances. That said, any pitcher is only starting every five days so any catcher that finds himself atop the stolen bases allowed list isn’t blameless. So who are the stolen base sieves behind the dish? It’s no surprise that the two guys victimized by Crawford and Fowler are the top two in SBA:

C SBA

But it’s actually another guy who has the worst caught stealing percentage:

C CS%

A.J. Pierzynski is allowing a stolen base per game! Meanwhile, Jarrod Saltalamacchia is ensuring he stays out of a full timeshare with Taylor Teagarden by adding value behind the dish. Of course Teagarden is only hitting .219 right now, so it hasn’t been hard for Salty to set himself apart. Get your basestealers in against Chicago (A), San Diego, Boston and Baltimore. But if you have a stolen base guy on your bench that you rotate in, you might want to choose the other option, whether it’s an AVG or HR-RBI option ahead of the SB guy when playing Texas, Colorado, St. Louis, Los Angeles (N), Washington, Houston and Detroit. And I’m talking more of the marginal basestealers like a Shin-Soo Choo, Kaz Matsui or Ryan Spilborghs, not Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, Willy Taveras, etc…

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Sunday: 05.10.2009

Abreu on 4 Times in 0 At-Bats

Los Angeles Angels (of Anaheim) outfielder Bobby Abreu has long been known for his tremendous plate discipline. From 1999-2006, Abreu strung eight straight 100+ walks seasons which stands as tied for a major league record with Frank Thomas. On Sunday, he pulled off an impressive though not entirely unique feat involving walks. His boxscore was 0-0-0-0-4-0-0. He went 0-for-0 with 0 runs, 0 runs batted in, 0 strikeouts and 0 left on base. His afternoon consisted of four free passes!

As I mentioned, this not a unique feat nor is it the record for walks in a game with 0 at-bats. The record is 5 achieved by 19 different players include Alex Gordon just last year. All told, 10 of the 19 instances have happened since 2000 and all but two have occurred since 1975. Barry Bonds, not surprisingly, is the only repeat achiever on the list. Teams for guys that have done this are 12-7. Here is a look at the list of those currently sharing the record as copied from Baseball Reference.com:

5 walks 0 at bats

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Saturday: 05.9.2009

The Next Wave

Here is a quick look at how some of the baseball’s top prospects are performing so far this year:

HITTERS (sorted by OPS):
Mat Gamel is destroying the ball, but there isn’t a clear spot for him in Milwaukee especially because he’s a horrible third baseman and Bill Hall is doing pretty well thus far. They will do something to make room for him if he continues to hit this well, though.

Tampa Bay’s Desmond Jennings is another guy who is on fire, but appears to be blocked at every avenue in the majors. Though B.J. Upton is off to a horrible start, he isn’t the kind of guy that will get bumped for a minor leaguer, even a star in the making like Jennings.

Keeping with the trend of being blocked, both Jeff Smoak and Buster Posey are 2008 draftees that already turning heads with their bats. Smoak might not be as firmly blocked as the others with Chris Davis striking out in an absurd 47% of his at-bats. If he didn’t have eight home runs already, he would almost certainly be back in the minors. Meanwhile Bengie Molina has been San Francisco’s best hitter and he’s highly regarded as a catcher. Of course, Posey is not really “blocked” because he would stay in the minors until September even if Gregg Zaun was San Francisco’s starting catcher.

Speaking of Zaun, what is Baltimore waiting for with Matt Wieters? Wieters hasn’t been otherworldly in AAA, but he’s ready. Enough of the Zaun/Chad Moeller combo that has yielded a robust .224 average and .303 on-base percentage in 107 at-bats. With an average of .290 and an OBP nearly 100 points higher, Wieters has been good enough to make it clear that the O’s are keeping him down for service time/financial reasons. Enough already.

minor hitters

PITCHERS (sorted by IP):
Tommy Hanson has got to heading to the majors very soon. Kenshin Kawakami and JoJo Reyes have both been horrible and I don’t know that Kawakami’s mediocre outing today will be enough to save him. Yes he won, but he still walked four in six innings and dropped his ERA to a microscopic 5.79! Kevin Medlen has been brilliant in the minors so far this season, too, but Hanson is far more heralded and could get the first shot. The Braves might be best served giving both a shot together since they have two big holes.

With Joakim Soria headed to the DL, the Royals have finally called Luke Hochevar up. Hochevar had stretches last year, but overall he walked too many and didn’t strike out enough batters.

Baltimore not only has one of the best hitting prospects in the game, but they have several pitching reinforcements making their way through the minors, which is their biggest problem right now anyway. They actually have a capable lineup that ranks 7th in OPS in the American League, but their team ERA is 12th of 14. None of their starters hold an ERA below 4.00. The sooner that Brian Matsuz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta can get to the majors, the better. Hopefully Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara can be stable forces atop the rotation and teach the youngsters later this year and moving forward.

Super phenom David Price was massively overhyped in the fantasy baseball realm this offseason based on his strong playoff performance, but he failed to break camp with the team and he hasn’t been flawless down in the minors struggling with control and the long ball. He WILL be up this season, but those that invested double-digits in him for a non-keeper league are immediately regretting their decision.

minor pitchers

I’ll post another minor league update in a few weeks.

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Friday: 05.8.2009

A National Power?

In my 2009 predictions, I slotted the Washington Nationals last in their division, but I suggested that they would have some legit offense thanks to offseason additions and growth from pieces they already had, “Washington finally doesn’t have an offense hinged on whether or not Nick Johnson stays healthy. They are pretty strong 1-8 as well as deep on the bench with Elijah Dukes, Josh Willingham and Willie Harris.”

Though it is still only May, it looks as though the Nationals won’t be dead last in the NL in OPS. Last year, they posted an embarrassing sub-.700 (.696) that was “topped” by only the Oakland Athletics (.686) in all of baseball. This year has been markedly different with the Nationals improving nearly 100 points in OPS to .794 that is good for 4th in the NL and 8th overall. Adam Dunn has been a huge addition with nine home runs already, but also an impressive .297 average. He has never hit anywhere near that level so it is safe to bet that the average will come down at least a bit. He has seasons of .264 (2007) and .266 (2004) that stand as his two highest. With one of the game’s best batting eyes and a commitment to not being a batting average anchor, Dunn is capable of .275-.280, but even if he only manages to match his career high of .266, he will still post a .400+ OBP with 40+ home runs.

Cristian Guzman has spent some time on the DL already this season, but he has remained the hitting force he was last year carrying a .386 average with 12 multi-hit games and just two 0-fers in his 17 games played. Nick Johnson‘s ability has never been in question, but his inability to stay healthy has stunted his career. He’s healthy right now and back to being the high average-high on base perfect #2 hitter for this lineup. Typically you want big time power from your first baseman, but Dunn fills that role and takes the heat off of Johnson when it comes to home run hitting.

The most impressive thing about the Nationals’ hot hitting thus far is the fact that it has come with NOTHING from Lastings Milledge (.397 OPS-now in AAA) and Josh Willingham (.693 OPS propped up by 10 walks; hitting just .174). Their worthlessness has been erased by the guys already mentioned as well as one of my favorites to rebound in 2009: Ryan Zimmerman. His only 0-fer of the season was in the 2nd game of the year which has resulted in an on-going 27-game hitting streak. He is hitting a robust .336 with six home runs and 21 RBIs. His 71 total bases are 2nd-best in the National League.

The downside to Washington’s offensive uproar? It hasn’t translated to much in the win column as they are dead last in not only the NL East, but the entire National League with a 10-18 record. That futility rests on the shoulders of the pitching, or severe lack thereof. Only Joe Beimel (1.74 ERA in 10 IP) has an ERA below 3.60 on the entire staff. Only three others are below 4.66. After two strong starts in late April, ace-of-the-future Jordan Zimmerman has been rocked for 11 runs in 11 and 2/3rds innings over his two latest starts. Allowing him to learn on the job and take his inevitable lumps wouldn’t be a problem on team that had two or three other starters capable of stopping a losing streak, but on a team like this it just adds to the mess. It’s reminiscent of Jeremy Bonderman‘s 2003 rookie campaign on that God-awful 43-119 team that saw Mike Maroth lose 21 and would’ve featured two 20-game losers had the Tigers not purposely moved Bonderman to the bullpen to save him that hit on his psyche.

If Zimmerman (20 years old) and their other youngster that surprisingly broke camp with the team, Shairon Martis (22) can develop into reliable rotation pieces through their experiences this year, they will go with ace John Lannan (24) to give the Nats a fair 1-3. Then there is the X-factor… or should I say the S-factor as in Stephen Strasburg. There hasn’t been a pitching prospect with this much promise in quite some time and recent reports suggest that the Nats will wisely take the San Diego State righty with the #1 overall pick in this June’s amateur draft despite the potentially absurd $50 million dollar asking price from idiot loser Scott Boras. Unfortunately for the Nats, you simply can’t pass on a talent like this:

2007 – 37 IP, 2.43 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 11.4 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9
2008 – 97 IP, 1.57 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9
2009 – 87 IP, 1.24 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 17.0 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9

So confident was I that the Nationals just COULDN’T pass on the youngster that I had this made:

Stephen Strasburg Custom Nationals t-shirt

Stephen Strasburg Custom Nationals t-shirt

I will be in D.C. for a game later this year and I’m hoping I’m the only one with that shirt, but since it’ll be a week after the draft, I’m sure there will be a few others floating around. And that’s also assuming that locals haven’t gotten the same exact idea I had and already own one.

With the offense they have displayed in the early going and the potential rotation they’re developing, the Nationals may be making noise much sooner than most would have expected. I haven’t even covered some of their up and coming minor league arms like Ross Detwiler, Tyler Clippard and J.D. Martin, all of whom are off to good starts as well as Colin Balester, whom the organization likes a lot. The biggest hurdle for the Nationals is their four opponents in the NL East. It will be interesting to see what Strasburg does for the team and how they choose to play the free agent and trade markets in an effort to thwart their worthy competition within the division.

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Friday: 04.10.2009

5 Things from the first 5 Days

(I’m not counting Sunday’s ONE game as a day of the season…)

We’re not yet a full week into the 2009 season, but plenty of interesting things have already taken place.

1. Miguel Cabrera has picked up right where 2008 left off: It took him a half-season in the American League to get acclimated, but he’s been on some kind of a tear since. Despite hitting just 11 home runs and driving in 48 runs during his 303 first half at-bats, Cabrera still managed to set career highs in both thanks to his 26 HR/79 RBI performance in 313 second half at-bats. After a 3-for-5 Friday afternoon that included a grand slam and six runs batted in, Cabrera is hitting .611 with three home runs and 10 RBIs through five games. A career .310 hitter, Cabrera’s name has been mentioned more than once this preseason as a legitimate Triple Crown threat. Though not likely, he’s certainly got that kind of talent.

2. Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner look to be “back” from their horrible 2008 campaigns: I’ll grant that it’s entirely too soon to make that statement definitively, but that’s why I said they look to be back. Martinez has already tied his season home run total with his second this evening against Toronto. Hafner also knocked his second home run of the season tonight and the two have combined to hit .375/.444/.750 with 4 HR and 7 RBI in the middle of the Indians lineup. I’m thoroughly unimpressed with their rotation as a whole so these two will need to be back at their previously established levels of greatness if the Indians expect to contend.

3. The preseason’s most over-saturated “sleeper”, Nelson Cruz, has not disappointed: Every year there is a guy that is pegged as the hot sleeper by so many different outlets that he is no longer a sleeper at all. Cruz was the 2009 version of that player and his value shot up as a result. Thankfully for those that paid full price later in the spring, Cruz has paid huge dividends early on with a .400 batting average, 3 HR and 5 RBI. Despite the embarrassment of riches for Texas on offense, Cruz will definitely be in the lineup if he continues to hit as well as he did last year and has so far this year.

4. Evan Longoria is ridiculous: That is hardly a newsflash, but with 4 home runs in the first six days of the season, Longoria is looking like he might improve upon his excellent rookie campaign. For a league filled with so much uncertainty around prospecting, it is really nice to see a heralded youngster like Longoria be an instant hit. In fact, there have been a nice handful of instant-hits lately like Joe Mauer, Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, Jay Bruce and Jacoby Ellsbury.

5. Joey Votto might even surpass my expectations for him, which are enormous: The Pirates are lucky it rained too much to play tonight! Votto was vastly underrated this spring as his ADP was below the likes of Chris Davis, Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena. He will far outproduce that group and will contend seriously for a spot in the top 5 with Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira. Through three games, he is hitting .538 with two home runs and SEVEN runs batted in! He has some sneaky speed a la Lee back in day and he could headed for a Lee-type season circa 2006-2007.

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Wednesday: 02.18.2009

The 2008 MRM in Review

On the heels of the 2009 list of Middle Relievers, I wanted to show how last year’s list fared. Before that, let me address a few things that came across via comments, email and over at the message board I frequent (Rotojunkie.com):

Rafael Soriano was a miss on the list. He’s a huge injury risk, but undoubtedly talented and belongs near the top of the GOLD MINING list. He can strikeout over a batter per inning and has the ability to close if he stays on the field and Mike Gonzalez doesn’t work out.

J.A. Happ and Scott Downs were both brought up separately and the reason they didn’t make the list is because I was under the impression that both would be vying for rotation spots. If they fail to lock down rotation spots, they are viable candidates for MRM, especially Downs with his back-to-back successful seasons out of the ‘pen.

To Dan Lowe, thanks for your great comments. I did include Bob Howry in the FLIERS category as his skills far classed the numbers he yielded. He is still worth a look, even at 35. David Riske has logged a K rate better than 6.0 just once since 2004 and a 2.0 K:BB rate once since 2005. He showed the ability to be an elite MR back in Cleveland, but it’s been awhile. Finally, excellent find on the Burton tidbit in that Baseball Analysts article. I didn’t think my mancrush for him could get any higher, but it just did!!

To the several emailers, I know the Joey Devine is penciled in as the closer on several depth charts, but there is no guarantee that Brad Ziegler doesn’t earn that job come Opening Day. Speaking of Ziegs, the reason he didn’t make any of the lists is because of his 4.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9. Not too appetizing, though the 60 IP sample is hardly massive. He hasn’t really blown batters away in the minors either.

Now, the 2008 list in review and some examples of how the method works from those that made the list:

• Diamonds in the Rough (these are the guys most likely to be the next Betancourts and Broxtons):
o 1 Rafael Perez, CLE – AWESOME
o 2 Justin Miller, FLA – FLAMED OUT THANKS TO INJURY
o 3 Matt Guerrier, MIN – 2ND HALF MELTDOWN
o 4 Jensen Lewis, CLE – CLOSED FOR AWHILE–13 SV
o 5 Santiago Casilla, OAK – 2ND HALF MELTDOWN THANKS TO INJURY
o 6 Michael Wuertz, CHC – OK, BUT INNINGS CUT DRASTICALLY
o 7 Juan Cruz, ARI – SUSTAINED 12 K/9; OVERCAME 5.4 BB/9 FOR 2.61 ERA
o 8 Matt Lindstrom, FLA – K/9 DROP, BUT STRONG 2ND HALF EARNED CL JOB
o 9 Brandon Morrow, SEA – AWESOME
o 10 Taylor Tankersley, FLA – DONE AFTER 18 IP
o 11 Tony Pena, ARI – STRONG BB GAINS FROM ’07, MIDDLING K RATE
o 12 Joel Peralta, KC – AWFUL
o 13 Chris Schroder, WAS – SENT DOWN EARLY FOR GOOD
o 14 Jimmy Gobble, KC – OBLITERATED
o 15 Bobby Seay, DET – DECENT IN EXPANDED ROLE THANKS TO 9.3 K/9
o 16 Joe Smith, NYM – MASSIVE GB & STRONG K HELD ALL YEAR
o 17 Andrew Brown, OAK – WEAK SKILLS, WEAKER BODY
o 18 Manny Delcarmen, BOS – AWESOME
o 19 Pedro Feliciano, NYM – SPURRED NYM COLLAPSE; AWFUL V. RIGHTIES
o 20 Mark McLemore, HOU – DNP IN MAJORS
o 21 Justin Speier, LAA – SHARP LOSSES IN K & BB RATES BROUGHT 5 ERA
o 22 Tim Byrdak, DET – BB RATE TOO HIGH; RIGHTIES MASHED HIM
o 23 Kevin Cameron, SD – JUST 10 IP; FLIER POTENTIAL IN OAK?
o 24 John Bale, KC – JUST 27 IP
o 25 Peter Moylan, ATL – INJURED EARLY, COULD BE READY OPENING DAY

• The Known Commodities (these guys are the premier middle relief aces as well as the steady, unheralded relievers :
o 1 Jonathan Broxton – BRILLIANT-FULL TIME CLOSER NOW
o 2 Rafael Betancourt – BUST EARLY, STABLE IN 2ND HALF
o 3 Carlos Marmol – BRILLIANT-MADE 2K9 LIST JUST IN CASE
o 4 Joba Chamberlain – BRILLIANT-FULL TIME STARTER NOW
o 5 Heath Bell – STRONG AGAIN THOUGH 2ND HALF FADE; HOFFMAN HEIR
o 6 Scot Shields – VERY GOOD, MADE 2K9 LIST
o 7 Aaron Heilman – BIG K SPIKE BROUGHT BIGGER BB SPIKE, TROUBLE ENSUED
o 8 Pat Neshek – LOST ’08 AFTER 13 IP; GONE TIL ’10
o 9 Dan Wheeler – VERY GOOD-MADE 2K9 LIST
o 10 Hideki Okajima – VERY GOOD-MADE 2K9 LIST
o 11 Chad Qualls – BRILLIANT-FULL TIME CLOSER NOW
o 12 Joaquin Benoit – NOT 100% IN ’08-MISSING AT LEAST HALF OF ’09
o 13 Scott Proctor – WORKLOAD CAUGHT UP; NOW IN FLORIDA-AVOID
o 14 Bob Howry – ERA & WHIP DECEIVE-PERIPHS SAY BUY IN ’09 DESPITE AGE
o 15 Fernando Rodney – PRETTY BAD; 13 SV ALLEVIATES PAIN OF 6.7 BB/9
o 16 Derrick Turnbow – LOST ’08 AFTER 6 IP; MOVE TO TEX FRIGHTENS
o 17 Octavio Dotel – STILL DOMINANT; WORTH ELEVATED ERA
o 18 Damaso Marte – TALE OF 2 HALVES; STILL VIABLE AT 34
o 19 Jeremy Accardo – LOST ’08 AFTER 12 IP; ’07 AN OUTLIER FOR NOW
o 20 Al Reyes – SQUEEZED OUT OF ELITE TB PEN; TURNS 102 IN ’09

• I’ll close with a few DEEEEEP sleepers:
o Kerry Wood, CHC – HUGE PAYOFF AS DOMINANT CLOSER
o Edwar Ramirez, NYY – SOLID ’08-A FAVORITE FOR ’09
o Renyel Pinto, FLA – NOTHING TERRIBLY SPECIAL
o Vinnie Chulk, SF – A 4.5 K/9 RENDERED HIM USELESS IN ’08
o Wil Ledezma, SD – LEFT SD, NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY
o Jack Taschner, SF – DROPPED NEARLY 2 K/9-DIMINISHING ROLE IN SF
o Jon Coutlangus, CIN – DIDN’T GET TO ’08 MAJORS
o Guillermo Mota, MIL – SOMEWHAT USABLE IN ’08, BUT 35 IN ’09
o Lenny DiNardo, OAK – 23 WORTHLESS IP IN ’08
o Zach Miner, DET – BECAME OK STARTER, BUT K RATE WAS AWFUL
o Tyler Yates, ATL – K AND BB RATES TANKED YET ERA DROPPED
o David Aardsma, CHW – MADE 2K9 LIST AS A SLEEPER
o Royce Ring, ATL – WORTHLESS IN 22 IP

Here are some examples of the method in practice from 2008’s list:

o Hong-Chih Kuo, Juan Cruz and Manny Delcarmen:
o 205 IP
o 10 W
o 3 SV
o 2.67 ERA
o 1.12 WHIP
o 239 K

o Kerry Wood, Edwar Ramirez and Reynel Pinto:
o 186 IP
o 12 W
o 35 SV
o 2.67 ERA
o 1.12 WHIP
o 239 K

o Rafael Perez, Justin Miller and Matt Guerrier:
o 199 IP
o 14 W
o 3 SV
o 4.35 ERA
o 1.40 WHIP
o 188 K

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