Baseball By Paul

I promised part 2 of the NFL Week 10 Review and catcher rankings today, but I’m a big fat liar. I feel like the page on an NFL week is turned on Wednesday so I passed on part 2. With the revamp of the review, it shouldn’t be 9,000 words every week and it will be easy to digest in one sitting on Monday mornings. As for the catcher rankings, I also threw another changeup. First off, I’m going to start at third base and head around the diamond backwards, but I’m not quite done yet, so please be patient.

In the interim, I’d like to continue sharing the picks and analysis of a great mock draft I’m currently involved in at the BaseballHQ.com (subscription required, but well worth it) forums. I’ve been lurking over there for some time so I knew I was going to be involved in a real battle when I started up the mock draft. It has been a really interesting draft so far (through 4 1/2 rounds thus far) as the 13 of us draft a standard roster for a 5×5 league that uses OBP instead of AVG while keeping everything else the usual. The round 1 analysis in case you missed it yesterday can be found here.

2.1 Troy Tulowitzki, SS COL
Lots of options here, but I decided on Tulo because 1) he could repeat or even improve, 2) he’s a shortstop, and 3) I didn’t have enough time to talk myself out of it.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Miguel Cabrera, 1B

My thoughts: This is a great pick at a frighteningly scarce position. Tulow’s 2008 was essentially lost to injury so you have to look at his 2007 season to determine how this 2009 fits in. When you look at the two, his 2009 isn’t a surprise at all. He’s showing legitimate growth for a budding superstar and he’s still just 25. The speed (20 SB after seven in ’07) might not stick, but he’s still a four-category ace even if fades back below double-digits.

2.2 Matt Holliday, OF FA
I’m running out of my house to go to work, but I wanted to get this in. Yes, two OF spots. But he’s the best of the last of the high OBP/big slugging types and there won’t be any when my turn comes around again.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Carl Crawford

My thoughts: I’m a firm believer in building a great outfield (more on that soon), so I love pairing Holliday’s power with Crawford’s speed. And the great thing is that each offers something (Holliday 14 SB, Crawford 15 HR) in the other’s strength. Two very good picks to address all five categories early on.

2.3 Jose Reyes, SS NYM
I’m going out on a limb here. I believe he’ll recuperate 100% for 2010 and if so, he’d be a 1st round pick. Course I could wind up with substantial amounts of egg on my face too.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Ryan Howard

My thoughts: A more extreme set of complementary players, but if Reyes is healthy enough to notch 50+ SBs, it’s a great combo. There is definitely some risk here, but he isn’t getting back to this draft in the late 3rd round so if he believes in a recovery, he has to take him here.

2.4 Evan Longoria 3B
Happy he lasted this long.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Tim Lincecum

My thoughts: I’d have like at least some analysis behind this pick, but it’s clear this drafter was concerned that Longoria might not make it to pick 17, so he’s happy to pair him with Lincecum. Third base is rough this year so getting a stud is important.

2.5 Mark Reynolds 3B
I need to power/speed combo and willing to take the OBP hit.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Joe Mauer

My thoughts: See what I mean re: 3B? Taking Reynolds here is really nice because Mauer makes up for any potential hit in OBP. That said, Reynolds does take some walks and I could see him drawing even more in 2010 if he tears the league as he did in 2009.

2.6 Ian Kinsler 2B Texas Rangers
Proven 30/30 talent in the middle of the 2nd rd? A 24% hit rate last year stunted his obp to .323 even though he went 31/31 with 86 rbis and 101 runs. Even a 28% hit rate should jump that obp up to 340 or .350 and with Prince Fielder anchoring that category I’m not to worried. This guy definently has a chance for a 35/35 season and could end up returning top 5 numbers in 2010.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Prince Fielder

My thoughts: There is a distinct reason that a 30-30 2B lasts this long: injuries. Kinsler just can’t get through a season. He lasted his longest yet in 2009, but still missed 18 games. Imagine what he can do if ever puts everything together: 2008’s batting average with 2009’s power and speed for 650 ABs. It could be an all-time fantasy baseball season.

2.7 – Grady Sizemore, OF – Cleveland
Here at pick 20, he’s probably 3-5 picks sooner than anyone was looking, but I don’t pick again until 32 so if I want him, I have to get him now. Last year was a washout, without question, but I’m not ready to drop him off the map because of it. His down category, AVG, is erased and turned into a strength with an OBP league as he draws a great deal of walks.

I like a nice bounceback season of .380-112-31-94-27

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Matt Kemp

My thoughts: Thrilled to get two all-around outfielders with my first two picks.

2.8 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF – Red Sox
Needless to say I am taking him for the speed (50 or more steals the last 2 years). He doesn’t hurt you in OBP and should score a ton of runs. I think there are will still be a number of good run producers left when I make my next pick.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Mark Teixeira

My thoughts: Ellsbury was a consideration for me when I took Sizemore. He’s not an empty base stealer. He can set you up to win that category, but also score a ton of runs and offer a good AVG and useful OBP depending on your league. He definitely earns you enough in SBs to take the virtual zero in the power categories.

2.9 – Joey Votto 1B – Cincinnati
I am sure some will regard this pick as a reach, but the elite OBP here helps balance the possibility of a mediocre OBP from my first-rounder Ryan Braun, and while the 25 HR are rather modest, the 166 PX indicates excellent power skills, so growth in production appears likely as he approaches his prime.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Ryan Braun

My thoughts: This was the point where I truly realized I had entered a shark tank. I love this pick and don’t see it as a reach at all, especially in an OBP league as the drafter notes. He’s got a run of .400-100-30-100 seasons coming up, starting in 2010.

2.10 – Adrian Gonzalez 1B San Diego.
Power, OBP, age 27, ascending Px trend = [an easy pick]

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Alex Rodriguez

My thoughts: This team’s power and OBP after two picks is insane. Gonzalez gets a healthy boost in OBP leagues because his 119 walks in 2009 weren’t a fluke.

2.11 David Wright 3B NYM
Previous 4 years: 381 to 415 OBA, 26-33 HR, 15-34 SBs – rated #16 after Tulo and Longoria.
Given Wright his consistent power prior to this season, it is almost certain to improve in 2010. I was expecting to have to take another (more) risky player here (Reyes or Sizemore), but couldn’t pass up DW.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Chase Utley

My thoughts: I still have Wright in my first round so you know I like this pick in the late second round.

2.12 Adam Dunn 1B/OF WAS
A very healthy consistent player, he’s awesome in OBP leagues. Just 30 this season, there’s no reason to expect him to deviate much from his 3 year average of roughly 90 R, 40 HR, 100RBI and a .380+ OBP. The dual-position elegibility is nice, too. I’m going to slot him in at OF for now, but that could change.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Hanley Ramirez

My thoughts: 100+ walks for six straight seasons and seven of eight make him an OBP-league treasure. Oh and five of six seasons with 40+ home runs helps, too. He fell two short last year, but .398-38-105 is still a studly offering.

2.13 Kevin Youkilis 1B/3B BOS
Safe Tier One player. OBP machine. The 3B eligibility put him over the top for me compared to other players I was considering.

Previous Picks:
Rd 1 – Albert Pujols

My thoughts: Position scarcity, upgrade with league format including OBP – seems like a great pick to me.

I’ll probably have round 3 up over the weekend.

Also, check out the interview I did with Jesse Spector of the NY Daily News found here. I’ve become friends with Jesse via Twitter and it was an honor to be a part of the series.

As I’ve mentioned before, the baseball season never really ends for me. Sure the playoffs are over, but that just means it is time to put both eyes on 2010. With that in mind, I started a mock draft over at the BaseballHQ.com forums (membership required) with 12 other members. It’s a slow mock at the forum that uses the standard 5×5 categories except eliminating AVG and replacing it with OBP. One thing I asked of the participants was their mindset behind the picks. Mock drafts are great tools on their own, but they are even better when you can see where someone is coming from with their picks, especially if it’s a pick you don’t necessarily agree with. I will share the first round with you now. I’m picking 7th in this draft.

1.01 Albert Pujols 1B, STL
I feel the first pick is a no-brainer heading into next season. As HQ readers know, it’s all about reliability in the early rounds. Pujols is not only the most highly skilled player in the MLB player pool, but he’s also the most reliable one. In reference to Ron’s Portfolio 3 Plan, this is a Tier 1 skill set if there ever was one. From a skills perspective, Pujols is money in the bank for a CT% around 90%, a PX around 160, and a BB% around 15%. From a results perspective, this truly unique skill set should once again translate into a Roto line of roughly 0.330 / 40 / 120 / 10 / 120. Enjoy Albert Pujols, HQ readers; we’re unlikely to ever see a better hitter in our lives.

My thoughts: Duh.

1.02 Hanley Ramirez SS, FLA
Big surprise, huh? There are actually a few warning signs here: While many expected the SB to decline as it did, PX also fell from 148 to 130 (145 1st half and 116 in 2nd half). And the BA boost was largely driven by a high h% (38%) as XBA shows (.289).

Still, that drop-off was meager in comparison to how the other top SS performed in 2009. He’s likely to be the best at a scarce position and contribute to all 5 categories (2 years in a row with a bb% >=10%), so he’s my pick.

My thoughts: Again, duh. Pujols and Ramirez are my easy 1-2. If someone wanted to make a case for a few other players after Pujols, I would listen, but I stand by Ramirez as my choice.

1.3 Utley, Chase (2B) PHI
What hip injury/surgery?? Solid 5-cat producer. Great line-up, great stadium.The number of MI, esp. 2B (Cano, Hill, Alexei, Phillips, Rollins and Polonco further down the scale) who’s roto value is driven (at least partially) by batting average who also have low BB% is noteworthy, so a some-what position scarcity pick,esp. in an OBP league. Also there should be alot of top tier 1B and OF there at the end of the 2nd round. And it is too early for a catcher.

Hopefully Mr. November carries on next year.

My thoughts: These first three played out exactly how I ranked the top three. I think Utley is underrated to a degree, amongst his other superstar brethren. There is more power at 2B than I think most realize, but only Utley has a track record of excelling in all five categories.

1.4 Rodriguez, Alex (3B) NYY
Certainty is at a premium for such an early pick and ARod’s return from significant surgery was above expectations. Slipping in many drafts in 09, he made those who ignored him, pay.

In an OBP league, he’s golden — from August til the end of the season, he soared and showed no signs of fatigue, displaying both power and speed in symbiosis with a great eye, on a consistent basis. In a year where there are doubts about his heir apparent, David Wright, ARod’s like fine wine — Wright’s slippage into a weak-hitting basestealer profile, enhances ARod’s value at the top.

Since ARod was able to post solid numbers in a year where all odds were stacked against him (enhanced media scrutiny, scandal, PEDs, major surgery), there is no reason to doubt that ARod will provide his usual output over the course of 2010.

My thoughts: This is the first pick that diverts from my top 12. That doesn’t make it wrong, of course. For one, my top 12 assumes a standard 5×5 league with batting average. And for two, I think things really jumble up 4-10 with little difference between the seven players within that range. I had Matt Kemp there, but I think A-Rod is a fine pick. A-Rod has had an OBP below .392 once since 2000 and it was .375!

1.05 Ryan Braun OF, MLW
Braun provides strong power/speed combination, is in a good lineup, is still young, and though his relatively low walk rate results in OBP fluctuation, his strong XBA indicates that he is likely to be solid in that category, which may be his weakest.

My thoughts: Back on track with top 12 as I had Braun fifth. How ridiculous has this guy been in his first three seasons? He seems to be getting better, which is absurd given how amazing he was during his rookie season. Another stud that does it in all five categories.

1.06 Mark Teixeira, 1B, Yankees
This pick is contrary to the position scarcity or difficult category (speed) approach. However, it seemed to me that the best first round choices left were outfielders and first baseman. I chose Teixeria based on his his consistent high performance for the last 5 years. During this time he has excelled in 4 of our 5 categories and has been extremely reliable which I think is essential for a 1st round pick.

I also like the fact that he is the #3 hitter in the Yankee lineup which should result in numerous opportunities to produce runs.

My thoughts: Big Teix has recently crept into my top 12 with Justin Morneau having some uncertainty surrounding him in 2010. Imagine how scary Teixeira’s season will be if he ever starts off hot and then has his usual torrid summer.

1.07 – Matt Kemp, OF – Los Angeles Dodgers
A budding superstar that contributes massively to four of the five categories we’re using. He’s better in batting average leagues, but he’s hardly a liability with his .350ish OBP. It’s not out of bounds to see him as a 40-40 candidate going forward. That would be the 99th percentile of his potential, but it exists. For now, I’d happily take 30-30 with improved plate discipline taking the OBP up above .360.

My thoughts: Well my thoughts are up there already since this was my pick. I love Kemp. As I mentioned earlier, Kemp is #4 in my top 12, but like I said that is for AVG leagues. I wouldn’t have taken Kemp fourth in this OBP league, but I was pleased to get him at #7.

1.08 – Prince Fielder, 1B – Milwakee Brewers
Compare these 2 5X5(w/obp)

Player A .441 / 47 / 124 / 16 / 135
Player B .409 / 46 / 103 / 2 / 141

Player A is Pujols and Player B is Prince Fielder. IMO Pujols at #1 is a no-brainer but at #8 a guy with the skill set of Prince Fielder is absolutely impossible to pass up. Also given the fact that he has hit 50 homers in 2007 and he’s entering his prime years as he doesn’t turn 26 until May. A 16% bb rate, a .080 eye and a 190 PX are hard to ignore.

My thoughts: I think Fielder has two or three more 50-home run seasons in his career, which is quite a feat when you consider the league leader had 47 in 2009. He just set a career-high in walks, and by extension OBP, with 110. I don’t necessarily understand the comparison w/Pujols here, but it was a good pick.

1.09 – Joe Mauer C- Minnesota Twins
Mauer is 26 and is heading into his prime hitting years. I believe he new found power is for real (28 HR in 2009). With this league using OBP over Avg it does’t hurt his value as Mauer lead MLB in OBP at .444. I believe that gap between Mauer and the #2 C is larger then any other #1 vs. #2 at any position. I am targeting him with this slot in a very similar league, so I appreciate all comments

My thoughts: I’m in the small, but growing camp that likes Mauer as a first rounder next year. There are reasons for caution in drafting him too high, but I think the power holds for the most part (around 25 home runs) while his OBP is game-changing. Despite all the talk about how Mauer is “injury-prone”, he’s managed 521 or better at-bats in three of the last four season. As far as I’m concerned, that’s a perfect range for a catcher. I’ll take another 520 out of Mauer in 2010 with a late first round pick.

1.10 Tim Lincecum, SP – San Francisco
Well I def would have taken Mauer and I’m now looking at some players that all have some type of ?. I hate doing this but I’ll take Tim Lincecum. My reason for this is there are a handful of bats available that I tossed around here and I believe at least one of them will still be available when the choice gets back to me. I’m unsure if Tim will be and honestly believe it really isn’t a reach here.

My thoughts: I don’t take pitchers in the first round, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. It’s just my preference to avoid them. Lincecum is the best of the bunch so if you’re going to take one, you might as well grab the best.

1.11 Ryan Howard, 1B PHI
A lot of good choices and fairly equal at this stage of the draft. Locking up a solid HR/RBI contributor seems like a “good idea”. he’s consistent and that lineup around looks solid for another year or two.

My thoughts: He’s a tremendous power producer, but I’d like to see get back to the .425, .392 OBP-levels he had 2006 and 2007 if I’m taking him over a handful of others still on the board.

1.12 Carl Crawford, OF TB
With an “elbow” pick, it’s important not only to see what is available, but see what’s around the corner. I see good HR/RBI guys to be had… but not many rock solid speed options. This is the one.

My thoughts: I love Crawford in 2010. I have him 6th in my top 12. He bounced back from the only down season of his career and I expect more excellence in 2010.

1.13 Miguel Cabrera, 1B DET
The best run-producing option left; one year in the next five, he is going to approach a 10-win season.

My thoughts: I’m not sure how Cabrera lasted this long, but it’s a great pick at 13. I assume the drafter means Wins Above Replacement when he speaks of a 10-win season.