Baseball By Paul

On Monday, I’ll report about the Symposium I attended yesterday, which was fantastic. For now, my thoughts on today’s series winner against the A’s.

Despite working with a lead before tossing a single pitch, Jeremy Bonderman promptly put he and the Detroit Tigers up against it. After a Magglio Ordonez RBI-double, Bonderman gave the Oakland A’s three runs of their own on four hits. The game would stay 3-1 for the next seven innings until the A’s were forced to call on star middle reliever Justin Duchscherer due to the unavailability of closer Huston Street. Duchscherer hadn’t allowed a run in his first eight innings of the season; he wouldn’t make it through his ninth. The Tigers got four hits and two walks, including the go-ahead walk by Curtis Granderson with the bases loaded to take, and hold, the lead.

Fernando Rodney, in his second inning of work, held the A’s for the 4-3 victory. Speaking of Rodney, the Tigers activated Todd Jones, an off-season acquisition overpaid to become to the Tigers’ closer. I don’t think there will be a controversy until Jones messes up. So basically until he pitches. Believe me, I want him to succeed after that contract (2 years, $11 mil.), but I don’t feel his excellent 2005 numbers are sustainable, especially at 37 (turns 38 next week).

As I watched the replay of the game, thanks to MLB.tv, I was immediately worried by Bonderman’s weak first inning. All I could think was, here we go again. Bonderman always seems to struggle out of the gate before finding a groove in the middle innings. This could be why he has piled up 47 against 32 losses in his short career. Prior to this season, he simply didn’t have an offense capable of climbing out of the holes he left for them. That said, let’s hope he doesn’t have to rely on the offense to continually bail him out going forward. Teams that don’t get to Bonderman in the first three innings are going to find it increasingly tough to get to him at all:

His first three innings are brutal by comparison as he continually sticks himself in a hole. If he alleviates the early inning problems, the middle and later innings should also improve because he won’t be pressing to make up for the early mistakes. Bonderman is still in need of some polish to become a consistent, quality starter.

And he has got to work on his prepartion for the start of games if he ever expects to become the top-flight starter his talent suggests he can become. Thankfully, he was bailed out on Thursday afternoon and the Tigers head up the coast to start a set with Seattle with a series win, 2-1, and a record a game above .500 at 9-7.

About a week and a half ago, I said that Chris Shelton and Dan Johnson would end with similar numbers come October. I will stand by it and take the fire that is sure to beset the inbox, because at this point, Johnson would have to make a helluva comeback from a .029 batting average and .170 OPS to catch up to Shelton. Hell, he needs a comeback of epic proportions to catch Rondell White at this point. In fact, Johnson is likely headed for a demotion as his struggles simply don’t seem to be improving.

After an Easter hiccup with the WordPress servers, we're back in business. Thankfully, Chris Shelton didn't experience a similar hiccup as his league-best eighth home run was the difference in a 1-0 pitcher's duel between Cliff Lee and Mike Maroth. Some notes from the Game 12 win that puts Detroit into a three-way tie with Cleveland and Chicago:

• Maroth pitched one of the finest games of his career, as evidenced by the three hits allowed in seven innings of work. His pitch placement was the key to five strikeouts as well as two huge double-play balls and he knew better than to let Travis Hafner, who has been uncharacteristically torching lefties of late, beat him.

• Ivan Rodriguez is back. He very likely won't contend for his third MVP award, but his eye is exponentially sharper and his bat is noticeably quicker through the zone than a year ago. He already has three walks this season in 10 games played after 11 in 129 games a season ago.

• Joel Zumaya is something else. He was in a sticky situation from the outset of the eighth inning after giving up a single to Aaron Boone, who was then placed in scoring position by a Casey Blake sac bunt. From there he walked pinch-hitter Victor Martinez, tightening the clamps on himself, before striking out Grady Sizemore and Jason Michaels with a killer mix of 95+ MPH heat and a knee-buckling hook.

• Fernando Rodney should not lose the closer's job when Todd Jones comes back just out of principle. I understand they paid Jones (way too much) to come back to Detroit, but Rodney and Zumaya are becoming an electric combination that could shorten games to seven innings for the Tigers.

The Tigers finish off the four-game set with the Tribe on Monday afternoon as the struggling Paul Byrd (1-1, 10.24 ERA) faces Nate Robertson (1-1, 4.38 ERA). Byrd has fared well against the Tigers for his career (2.91 ERA in 52.67 innings of work), but has just one start against the team since 2003 that came last year with the Los Angeles Angels.

And take your two doubles and your home-run stealing catch. You're bothering me.

"It should be open season on the rookie as the team has showed absolutely no signs of slowing down with the bats."

— Me, this morning

Instead it was open season on Bonderman, who yielded seven runs on eight hits in less than four innings. The offense now have their work cut out for them, facing a 7-0 deficit as they enter the bottom of the 4th.

Courtesy: Freep.com

The opening game of the Cleveland Indians series was a confidence builder for this young team. Coming off of a sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox hurts no matter how you slice it. To say it was demoralizing is probably an overstatement. None of the games were blowouts (seven runs decided the three-game set), the team continued its hitting success (.321 AVG, .889 OPS), and Jim Thome owns the Tigers! That said, a big 5-1 win against the Indians to snap the four-game skid was in order on Friday night to right the ship.

The Tigers hit Indians' starter Jake Westbrook early and often posting runs in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th innings. Westbrook yielded all five of Detroit's runs on nine hits (six were extra-base hits including three home runs) in six innings of work. It was the back of the lineup that did the most damage. Sixth, seventh, and ninth hitters went 6-for-11 with four runs batted in powered by Brandon Inge's two-home run evening and of course, the continued mashing of one Chris Shelton. Shelton stayed in the yard but knocked his fifth double and third triple. Carlos Guillen, hitting seventh, was 2-for-4 to raise his average to .289 on the season. Curtis Granderson hit his third home run of the season.

Starting pitcher Kenny Rogers put 10 men on, but allowed just one run while striking out five in eight innings of work to notch his second victory in a Tigers' uniform. The start comes after Rogers was touched up for 12 hits and five runs against his former team, Texas, on Sunday. He will likely start on Wednesday the 19th in Oakland against Joe Blanton. He has a career earned run average of 4.30 against the A's, but was 4-0 with a 2.70 five starts against them in 2005. Rogers also spent nearly two seasons in Oakland from 1998-1999 making 52 starts before moving to the New York Mets mid-season.

Designated hitter Dmitri Young left the game in the sixth inning after straining his right quad while running the bases. He is expected to hit the 15-day disabled listed opening up some playing time for power-hitting reserve Marcus Thames. Young is hitting .219 with a .492 OPS in eight games.

Today, the Tigers face a rookie in Fausto Carmona. Carmona, 22 years old, posted a 4.50 earned run average in 10 innings of work with the Buffalo Bison. He struck out nine batters while walking just one. It should be open season on the rookie as the team has showed absolutely no signs of slowing down with the bats.

All the hype and build up surrounding the Tigers after a hot opening week has dissipated after a three-game sweep at the hands of the Chicago Thomes. Jim Thome continued to pound the Tigers in a 13-9 victory yesterday with his sixth home run, this time punishing Justin Verlander. The third and final defeat came despite Chris Shelton's seventh home run of the season.

The luster may have worn off for the mainstream media, but I didn't expect Detroit to play at a 5-1 clip all season, so this doesn't erase hopes of a good season in one fell swoop. The negatives are that it was the home opening series, it was against the stiffest competition they've faced yet, who just happen to be both the World Champs and division rivals, and of course the fact that it was a sweep! That said, the games were close and this team is still hitting very well.

Verlander struggled early and often yielding seven runs in just two and two-thirds innings of work. The Tigers were able to get Chicago starter Jon Garland (for seven runs in five innings) drawing as near as 10-8 with their 21 hits, but it wasn't enough. Only leadoff hitter Curtis Granderson failed to notched two or more hits yesterday, going just 1-for-6, leaving a game-high six men on base. The 2-3-4 combination of Placido Polanco, Ivan Rodriguez, and Magglio Ordonez went 7-for-14 with five of the team's nine runs driven in including Ordonez' third home run of the season.

In fact, the trio is hitting .337 (34-for-101) so far this season, which is promising to the team given the lack of production from Ordonez and Rodriguez a season ago. Both appear healthy and able to perform at the level the Tigers had in mind when doling out their large contracts in the past two off-seasons. All three have been integral to the league-best .935 OPS posted by the Tigers.

The Tigers, now 5-4, host Cleveland for four games before starting a West Coast swing in Oakland on Tuesday.

Probable Pitching Matchups:
Kenny Rogers (1-1, 4.76) v. Jake Westbrook (2-0, 1.98)
Jeremy Bonderman (1-1, 3.29) v. Fausto Carmona (0-0, 0.00)
Mike Maroth (1-0, 1.69) v. Cliff Lee (1-0, 3.97)
Nate Robertson (1-1, 4.38) v. Paul Byrd (1-1, 10.24)

When the Chicago White Sox traded for slugger Jim Thome, a resounding "oh crap!" was heard from 305 miles east in the heart of Detroit. Thome, a former Cleveland Indians first baseman, returned to the American League after a three-year hiatus in Philadelphia. Worse yet for the Tigers, he returned to their division and in the first two games of the opening set in Comerica Park, he has continued to exact his prowess over the team. Thome is 3-for-8 with two home runs (5 for the season) in Chicago's two wins over Detroit. The two home runs give him 44 lifetime off of the Detroit Tigers, most of any team. Through 130 games against Detroit:

427 AB
.309 AVG
.459 OBP
.682 SLG
44 HR
97 RBI
103 R
22 2B
3 3B

He even has three triples against Detroit. THREE TRIPLES! Only Minnesota has yielded as many triples. In fact, prior to this series, the two teams were tied in home runs allowed by Thome at 42. Look for more Thome fireworks in late April when the Twins visit Chicago for a three-game set starting April 21st. The 4-3 loss this afternoon pushed the Tigers to 5-3 overall.

As the mayhem from Chris Shelton's sizzling open week subsides with Shelton mired in a 1-for-8 slump, the ideas of his ability from here on begin to fly. Immediately, naysayers point to his competition and suggest flash-in-the-pan status, others are more imaginative projecting (reading: hoping for) a true breakout season complete with 30+ home runs and 125+ runs batted in as the Tigers storm to the top of the Central Division standings. Me? I think he and Dan Johnson will have very similar numbers at the end of the season. Yes, the same Dan Johnson that has started the season 0-for-19 thus far.

Anyone who thinks that either will keep up their current pace of hitting (or not in Johnson's case) is fooling themselves. Shelton is a very good, professional hitter. He showed it last year in a 107 game stint with the Tigers banging out 18 home runs while hitting .299 and getting on base at a .360 clip. Johnson played 109 games in Oakland and put up a similar 15-.275-.355 line. The two each played just under 50 games in AAA before being moved up last year and posted equally similar lines with Shelton batting .331 AVG/.417 OBP/.569 SLG with eight home runs and a 1.32 K:BB rate, Johnson was .324/.424/.549 with eight home runs and a 0.75 K:BB ratio.

Looking at their minor league careers, each five years worth of play, continues the likeness:

Shelton 162 Game AVGs
567 AB
188 H
23 HR
108 RBI
1.26 K:BB
.332 AVG
.428 OBP
.539 SLG

Johnson 162 Game AVGs
598 AB
177 H
30 HR
121 RBI
1.29 K:BB
.295 AVG
.381 OBP
.514 SLG

Chris Shelton is a good baseball player and provides great value for the Detroit Tigers especially when you consider his status as a Rule 5 Draftee. His opening week has brought him into prominence on the baseball landscape in the same way Brian Roberts' white-hot start did a season ago. Roberts didn't fall into obscurity, rather he has retained a reputation as a solid player coming into 2006. His explosion was justified by his previous numbers and despite an injury, he posted a very respectable season. Shelton's opening week is much the same in that we aren't staring down the power surge as if Juan Pierre or Jason Kendall just knocked nine extra bases hits. Shelton may remain hot for rest of the month, but remember one thing: the baseball world saw about 17-20% of his home run production just last week. He and Dan Johnson can celebrate the end of the season knowing they were patient, quality hitters that achieved the 25-home run plateau in just their second seasons of play.

History Lesson
As mentioned above, Shelton is a Rule 5 Draftee, so what kind of company is he in with that status? While there have been 100s of $50,000 flameouts, there is some elite company for Shelton to strive for:

Hall of Fame
Roberto Clemente

All-Stars
George Bell
Kelly Gruber
Mike Morgan
Johan Santana

Notables
Luis Ayala
Jay Gibbons
Wil Ledezma
Hector Luna
Shane Mack
Andy Sisco
Adam Stern

Courtesy: Wikipedia.com

Chris Shelton might just get himself a category all to his own with so many posts being dedicated to him. Much has been made of his five home runs to open the season, but he has decided to mix it up tonight lacing two triples in the first three innings to raise his batting average to .722. Justin Verlander and the Tigers lead 5-0.