Baseball By Paul

That was stunning. Vomit-inducing. Unfathomable. Simply impossible. I cannot believe what I witnessed this weekend from my Tigers. Nevertheless, we can’t sit around and whine about it. It’s done, it happened. The Yankees are the focus now and they deserve our undivided attention as beating them will be no easy task. Their fantasy baseball-like lineup will test the strength of this team on the mound and in the field. Meanwhile, their pitching presents an opportunity for the Tigers, but only if they can display a level of patience they have yet to master in this dream season. After Mike Mussina and Chien-Mein Wang, things get muddy. How effective can Randy Johnson be? Is Cory Lidle worth anything? Outside of Scott Proctor and Mariano Rivera, are there any reliable relievers in that bullpen? Though the World Series favorites in the eyes of many, this team is not without flaws and those flaws are found within their run prevention abilities.

The Yankees themselves are a tough enough matchup for this team that I seriously hope there is no residual effect from the Motor City Meltdown against the Royals. I just cannot get my head wrapped around the events that took place this past weekend. Mind you, I take no solace in the attempted comfort of some that say “Hey, when the season started, you didn’t even expect your Tigers to be in contention.” Thanks, but no thanks, Mom & Dad! I love you both, but that’s not going to erase the nightmare of a division blown in stunning fashion to the league’s worst team. Worse yet was the comfort call placed by Mom informing that the Detroit Lions (my 1a team behind my Tigers) were winning and looked ready to post their first win. Rams 41-34. She tried and I give her credit for it, but yesterday just wasn’t my day.

In other news, my lengthy hiatus between posts wasn’t really out of choice. Work has been hectic, in a good way, as I received my second promotion in as many months. I’m once again on a new schedule, but it is more conducive to time on the computer, so expect regular updates throughout the playoffs. I’d like to thank those that still made the pilgramage daily to see if I had risen from the dead and the few that emailed just to see what was up. I’m alive and quite well, just busy is all. I’m debating on a whether or not to put out a full-blown preview of the series. Plenty of other things on the agenda as well including postseason awards team-wide and league-wide, statistical analyses aplenty now that I have a full 162-games to digest (I’ve already placed my order for the spiral bound Bill James 2007 Handbook) and of course, the most important thing is day-to-day discussion on the first playoff series for the Tigers in nearly 20 years.

Edit to add: Mitch Albom, as always, does a good job of describing the disgust of the weekend.

I’m not posting this as an “in-your-face” sort of thing against the Twins, but Francisco Liriano was pulled in the middle of the 3rd inning during his first start since going on the disabled list. No word yet on the severity or what the root cause of the departure is, but Liriano seems to have hurt his shoulder on a pitch in the dirt. While it is good news for the Tigers, I never cheer an injury for anyone, especially when I particularly like a player as I do Liriano.

After getting shutdown by Boof Bonser in a 2-1 loss last night, the Tigers put themselves squarely behind the 8-ball. And when push came to shove, they were destroyed 12-1 as Johan Santana struck out 11 and allowed just two hits in six and a third innings of work. The skid has turned into an all out failure to execute over the past six weeks. This team has gone from home field advantage and the #1 seed to what will be a dogfight for a playoff spot, let alone a division title. I am more upset than angry because I am genuinely worried about the fate of this team. A pathetic display at the plate in all of August has been followed by a poorer showing in September. The team is toting a .242/.296/.406 batting line through Sunday’s debacle in Minnesota. A complete and utter lack of plate patience remains the key to their failures.

Leadoff hitter Curtis Granderson has 13 strikeouts in September to run his tally up to 152 for the season! Earlier in the season, I compared his lofty strikeouts to that of another Central Division leadoff hitter, Grady Sizemore. Even Sizemore only struckout 132 times last year and his other numbers were significantly better. At this point, he belongs nowhere near the top of the lineup. There is simply too little time left in the season to wait for him to take a damn pitch.

The team gets two days off this week and the first couldn’t come soon enough. A two-game set against Texas is sandwiched in between the time off before capping off the week with a three-game set against Baltimore. Nothing less than four of five is acceptable as this point. Thankfully the Chicago White Sox have struggled almost as much as the Tigers during the last 10 games posting a 4-6 record against Detroit’s 3-7. The two teams start a season-changing series eight days from now in the Windy City.

In the past two days, I’ve watched the Tigers drop two huge games to the Twins, my Longhorns fall at home to the Ohio State Buckeyes (I witnessed that live) and then my Detroit Lions come up short in a chance to start the season off with a bang against the Super Bowl runners-up as they lost 9-6 to Seattle. Meanwhile, in those same two days, I received autographs from Jim Leyland via my sister who met him in a Detroit casino last weekend and former Tigers outfielder Gary Pettis, who I watched coach first base for the Nashville Sounds on Friday night against the Round Rock Express. Today, my girlfriend went to game five of the series to cheer on her hometown Sounds (they lost though) and got him to sign something for me. I know, she’s wonderful!

I will post pictures of both autographs this week.

Months like that happen. They do. But that doesn’t make them any easier to swallow. Why did the team go 13-16 in August? One number: .310. That was the team’s August on-base percentage, or not on-base percentage as it were. Only Seattle (.308) and Toronto (.304) were worse, which is why they finished 11-17 and 12-17 August records, respectively. It is very difficult to win games if you cannot effectively get on base. The team’s inability to draw walks has been well-chronicled and it was on full display in August with just 63 free passes drawn, baseball’s second-lowest total (Seattle, 59).

The inflated earned run averages of the rotation led many to believe that the pitching was the downfall in the team’s worst month all season, but the strength of the bullpen kept the team ERA at a very respectable 3.75 for the month (7th-best in baseball). However, Kenny Rogers was the only starter to post an earned run average below 4.61. He was excellent in five starts going 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Youngsters Zach Miner and Justin Verlander each struggled mightily throughout August. Miner’s woes combined with Mike Maroth‘s scheduled comeback could keep the rookie in the bullpen for the rest of the season. This is from a Monday article in the Free Press:

Leyland said Maroth will be activated and put in the bullpen Friday, the day rosters expand to 40 and the disabled list becomes largely unnecessary. It’s unclear when Maroth’s elbow will be sound enough for him to pitch in relief, let alone start.

More information with regards to the rotation from today’s edition:

Upcoming rotation: Kenny Rogers and Justin Verlander are switching spots so that opponents can’t get locked in on the power pitching of Bonderman and Verlander in back-to-back games. Rogers will go tonight against the Angels and Verlander on Saturday . . . Leyland is leaning toward having Wil Ledezma start on three days rest against the Angels on Sunday night. … Ledezma replaced Zach Miner in the rotation Wednesday. Nate Robertson originally was scheduled to work Sunday. But then his start Tuesday night in New York was pushed back a day by a rainout. So Robertson’s next start will be Monday.

The sooner Placido Polanco returns, which could be as soon as two weeks according to Mack Avenue Tigers, the sooner I can quit vomiting every time I see the name Neifi Perez in a Detroit Tigers lineup.

Here is a look at the September competition and the records of each opponent:

Though we enter the twilight of summer, the heat ramps up beginning today for the team. The pennant race is in full effect. Seven massive games against the Twins and White Sox could decide the playoff fate of all three teams. One plus side to an otherwise formidable schedule: five of the last eight games are against the hapless Kansas City Royals.

I got off of work in time to watch the end of the Yankees-Tigers game on ESPN last night. What a huge home run by Craig Monroe. I can’t even explain how awesome it was and how important it was to the team. I haven’t been around in some time, but I’m off until Monday, so I should be able to post some regular updates starting later today when I wake back up. Until then, I’m going back to bed.

With the way the season has gone, any Tigers fan had to love the idea of Justin Verlander taking the hill in the third game of a series when the team is going for a sweep. However, Verlander once again didn’t have his best stuff as the sweep was denied in Boston. He was reliant upon his fastball and it failed him to the tune of five runs over six innings along with seven walks allowed, a career-high. After allowing 13 hits to the Chicago White Sox on Friday, Verlander switched to a larger glove for this start for fear that he might have been tipping his pitches. I guess it wasn’t the glove. With two bombs in a row, Verlander is at a turning point with his next start. Did he just tip some pitches and “not have it” the past two? Or is he legitimately tired and in danger of doing serious damage each time he pitches from here on out? It goes without saying that the Tigers will have no chance of sustained postseason success without Verlander in the rotation. I think maybe another skipped start could do a rookie good.

The biggest casualty of the series win in Boston was second baseman Placido Polanco. According to Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, Polanco should be out for about a month. Carroll writes the members-only Under the Knife column, so I’ll refrain from posting exactly what he says, but he mentions that Jim Leyland wouldn’t be definitive without advice from the medical professionals on the team and that when he does return, it will be his hitting that could suffer the most. Rumors of the team acquiring Mark Grudzielanek were squelched by a painfully bizarre contract extension for the aged 2nd sacker (credit: Mack Avenue Tigers). Ramon Santiago was recalled to fill the roster spot, meanwhile Omar Infante will play second base and Craig Monroe will likely bat second in Polanco’s absence. I’ll use Free Press writerJohn Lowe‘s description of what Polanco means to the Tigers because I think he sums it up very nicely, “As the second baseman and second-place hitter, Polanco is not the most powerful or spectacular part of the Tigers’ machine. He is more like the oil that keeps it going smoothly.” He rates as the toughest hitter to strikeout in baseball at one for every 17.4 at-bats, an asset on a team known for striking out.

Speaking of the team’s strikeout troubles, Buster Olney of ESPN.com blogged (Insider-Only) about the Tigers’ inability to work counts and wear out starting pitchers. Ranking 28th in walks and 6th in strikeouts, Olney suggests the team is not fit for October without some serious adjustments to plate patience. Frankly, he is right. I am confident that this team can get to the playoffs with the American League’s best record, but they need to stifle the free-swinging ways if they want to go deep into October. The power is there, the never-say-die attitude is there, but in an environment where things really tighten up, this team will need to take advantage of extra chances on base by drawing more walks and fanning less.

Staying with ESPN, a former favorite of mine that I believe fell off immensely is making a nice comeback. On the national scale, he didn’t fall out of favor, so it is more of a personal comeback. Bill Simmons‘ American League breakdown article from yesterday was vintage Simmons. He went away from his reliance on reality show/USWeekly jokes and droning on about a new ESPN 13 channel. Instead, he just broke down the American League with a delightful mix of well-done analysis and relevant humor. I was most impressed because I was not sure he would have a firm grasp of the goings-on of all 14 teams in the junior circuit, but he acquitted himself handily. He ranked the Tigers second, which I’m fine with and suggested that Joel Zumaya might be the league’s most intimidating reliever. He brings up something I never forget and that is the stroke of the luck the Tigers got when Juan Gonzalez said “no” to the ludicrous $150 million dollar offer:

“(Second-strangest thing about the Tigers: Six years ago, they offered Juan Gonzalez a $150 million contract that would have destroyed them for the rest of the decade if he wasn’t dumb enough to turn it down. It’s almost like the entire franchise had a near-death experience. Anyway, they took advantage of that second life and now they’re headed for 100 wins. … Meanwhile, Juan Gone is playing in the Independent League along with my buddy JackO’s pal from home, and after JackO drove to Jersey to catch one of his friend’s games, they stopped at a Subway for dinner afterwards, and who walked in but Juan Gonzalez? That’s right, the two-time MVP Juan proceeded to sit down at a table and eat a Subway sandwich by himself. These are the things that happen when you turn down a $150 million contract. I feel like you need to know these things.)”

There is no let up in the schedule for the Tigers after back-to-back series in Chicago and Boston. They are home for eight, but it is four apiece against Texas and then the White Sox again. The Rangers come in as winners of six of their last seven and feature a dangerous lineup. However, their staff is one that the Tigers can get to (and have, though back in April). The pitching matchups are as follows:

Thu, Aug 17—–6:05 pm CDT—–K.Rogers vs. E.Volquez
Fri, Aug 18—–6:05 pm CDT—–Z. Miner vs. K. Millwood
Sat, Aug 19—–6:05 pm CDT—–N. Robertson vs. J. Koronka
Sun, Aug 20—–12:05 pm CDT—–J. Bonderman vs. V. Padilla

According to Baseball Prospectus’ Stat of the Day, Todd Jones is the fourth most leveraged pitcher in the American League of those with 20 or more innings:

Given the way he has responded (or not responded), I’d say that this is a bad thing.