Archive for ‘Fantasy Baseball’

Saturday: 02.10.2007

Mock Update

Here is an updated look at my team in the Mock Draft I posted about last time as well as the first four rounds of the entire draft:

6.15 – C Russell Martin, LA – I don’t really like this pick for me, but I just didn’t have a feel for anyone here. In retrospect, I really wish I would have taken Dan Haren, who was selected two picks later. It’s not that Martin won’t perform nicely at catcher, but it just didn’t feel good when I locked it in.

7.02 – SS Julio Lugo, BOS – Blah. See also: Martin, Russell. I don’t entirely hate the pick because he should do well with the Sox, but I generally get fired about my picks and have a laundry list of reasons why it was the best pick at the time. I can’t really lay out a convincing argument for either of my last two picks.

8.15 – P Jonathan Papelbon, BOS – Now, here is a pick I love! Whether he starts or closes, I love his ability and I was extremely pleased to see him get back to me in the 8th round.

9.02 – OF Brad Hawpe, COL – Almost at once, the entire league noticed that outfield simply wasn’t as deep as we all thought. I was sitting with two greats thinking I could coast, but then I was watching outfielder after outfielder fly off the board and it hit me that I’d better get another one before letting another stretch go. Hawpe is a solid player, plus he plays in Coors field. He can’t hit lefties worth a damn (.232 last year), but I like getting another 20+ home runs here.

10.15 – SP Kelvim Escobar, LAA – To those that know me, this pick couldn’t be less of a surprise. I absolutely love Escobar. I wish the guy could stay healthy for an entire season, but his stuff is downright nasty. I’ve combined he and Lackey on a fantasy team for approximately the 452nd time.

11.02 – CI Nomar Garciaparra, LA – Sure, he is an injury risk. Always is, always will be, but I’d take another 469 at-bats in a heartbeat. In the 11th round, he presents significant value even if strong winds might sideline him for 2-3 weeks.

12.15 – 3B Edwin Encarnacion, CIN – Notice how deep 3B is this year? There is so much talent at that position and I’m happy to wait and get EE late. A 20-home run season is not out of the realm of possibilities in 2007.

13.02 – SP Brad Penny, LA – Apparently I love Los Angeles. Penny marks my fifth guy from the Angels & Dodgers in this draft. With Penny, you pretty much know what you’re going to get, but he has the talent to surprise. His ERA was high a season ago at 4.33, but the periphals say it wasn’t even that bad. Another 15 wins with an ERA in the high 3.00s would be fine here.

14.15 – P Scot Shields, LAA – This is just getting weird with the Los Angeles guys. All the closers worth a lick are gone, so I got a strong bullpen guy that could snake a few here and there and would replaced K-Rod if anything happened.

Roster as of now:
C RMartin (6)
1B JMorneau (2)
3B EEncarnacion (12)
CI NGarciaparra (11)
2B BRoberts (5)
SS JLugo (7)
MI
OF ASoriano (1)
OF ISuzuki (3)
OF BHawpe (9)
OF
OF
UT

P JLackey (4)
P JPapelbon (8)
P KEscobar (10)
P BPenny (13)
P SShields (14)
P
P
P
P

Bench1
Bench2
Bench3
Bench4
Bench5
Bench6
Bench7
Bench8

First four rounds of the entire draft:

1.01 – Hammer – Albert Pujols, 1B
1.02 – ari.Gold – Alfonso Soriano, OF
1.03 – Erik – Alex Rodriguez, 3B
1.04 – Revo – Jose Reyes, SS
1.05 – MGH5208 – Ryan Howard, 1B
1.06 – Megapowers – Carl Crawford, OF
1.07 – eldiablo505 – Johan Santana, P
1.08 – Midway Monster – Miguel Cabrera, 3B
1.09 – Friarfan – Chase Utley, 2B
1.10 – joncarlos – David Wright, 3B
1.11 – BC – Vladimir Guerrero, OF
1.12 – Patronus – Carlos Beltran, OF
1.13 – Juiced – David Ortiz, DH
1.14 – DMT – Matt Holliday, OF
1.15 – Heyelander – Manny Ramirez, OF
1.16 – goalie – Joe Mauer, C

2.01 – goalie – Lance Berkman, 1B/OF
2.02 – Heyelander – Jimmy Rollins, SS
2.03 – DMT – Travis Hafner, DH
2.04 – Juiced – Derek Jeter, SS
2.05 – Patronus – Mark Teixeira, 1B
2.06 – BC – Grady Sizemore, OF
2.07 – joncarlos – Derrek Lee, 1B
2.08 – Friarfan – Garrett Atkins, 3B
2.09 – Midway monster – Hanley Ramirez, SS
2.10 – eldiablo505 – Vernon Wells, OF
2.11 – Megapowers – Miguel Tejada, SS
2.12 – MGH5208 – Jason Bay, OF
2.13 – Revo – Carlos Lee, OF
2.14 – Erik – Aramis Ramirez, 3B
2.15 – ari.gold – Justin Morneau, 1B
2.16 – Hammer – Andruw Jones, OF

3.01 – Hammer – Bobby Abreu, OF
3.02 – ari.gold – Ichiro Suzuki, OF
3.03 – Erik – Chris Carpenter, P
3.04 – Revo – Rafael Furcal, SS
3.05 – MGH5208 – Carlos Zambrano, P
3.06 – Megapowers – Paul Konerko, 1B
3.07 – eldiablo505 – Michael Young, SS
3.08 – Midway monster – Jake Peavy, P
3.09 – Friarfan – Roy Oswalt, P
3.10 – joncarlos – Juan Pierre, OF
3.11 – BC – Jermaine Dye, OF
3.12 – Patronus – Chone Figgins, 3B/OF
3.13 – Juiced – Victor Martinez, C
3.14 – DMT – Brandon Webb, P
3.15 – Heyelander – Roy Halladay, P
3.16 – goalie – Ben Sheets, P

4.01 – goalie – Carlos Guillen, SS
4.02 – Heyelander – Adam Dunn, OF
4.03 – DMT – Brian McCann, C
4.04 – Juiced – Carlos Delgado, 1B
4.05 – Patronus – Francisco Rodriguez, RP
4.06 – BC – Johnny Damon, OF
4.07 – Joncarlos – Bill Hall, SS
4.08 – Friarfan – Richie Sexson, 1B
4.09 – Midway Monster – BJ Ryan, RP
4.10 – eldiablo505 – Hideki Matsui, OF
4.11 – Megapowers – Joe Nathan, RP
4.12 – MGH5208 – Robinson Cano, 2B
4.13 – Revo – Mariano Rivera, RP
4.14 – Erik – Gary Sheffield, OF
4.15 – ari.gold – John Lackey, P
4.16 – Hammer – Billy Wagner, RP

Thursday: 02.1.2007

Touching Base

It’s been quite awhile, but a return to frequent posts is around the corner as pitchers and catchers will soon report. For those that don’t know, I’m quite the fantasy baseball enthusiast in addition to being a huge Tigers fan. As such, I aim to be posting plenty regarding the game this spring. I have entered into my first mock draft that is a 5×5 mixed league with 16 teams drafting. I had the second pick and here is how I stand so far:

1.02 – OF Alfonso Soriano, CHC – I love Albert Pujols and can’t fault anyone for taking him 1st overall, but I truly believe that Soriano is most valuable fantasy performer when you consider his across the board contributions. He has pushed A.Rod down to #3 at best in a mixed league.

2.15 – 1B Justin Morneau, MIN – I didn’t really expect to get some of my huge second round targets as they are prime players. Grady Sizemore went 6th in the second round, Vernon Wells went 10th and Jason Bay went 12th. What really ticked me off was that I thought I was going to get Aramis Ramirez and then he went 14th in the second round! Can’t complain about getting the American League MVP, though.

3.02 – OF Ichiro Suzuki, SEA – Not only is he a personal favorite, but he is still a solid contributor, especially in the third round. Considering that I still wasn’t ready for a pitcher, I feel comfortable with this pick as the players to go right after him on offense were:

  • Rafael Furcal – I didn’t really want him.
  • Paul Konerko – Already had Morneau.
  • Michael Young – I like him a lot, but preferred Ichiro here.

4.15 – SP John Lackey, LAA – Lackey is easily one of my favorite players and I really wanted to get him. The 4th round in a 16-team league works perfectly for me. He did drop off his K/9 a tick last year, but also dropped his OPS against. He is 28 years old and ready to become a truly elite pitcher. He did increase walk total by one last year, but he also pitched 8.2 more innings than he did in 2005.

5.02 – 2B Brian Roberts, BAL – If this were to become a real league as opposed to a mock, I’d be looking great in stolen bases after adding Roberts. In addition to his speed, he offers significant power given his position. It is another pick I am extremely happy with as we move forward.

I should have my 6th and 7th round picks before the weekend.

Sunday: 06.18.2006

Father’s Day

I’d like to take a quick second to wish my dad a Happy Father’s Day. He is easily the best father ever with some of the finest offspring around. Without my dad’s love of baseball, I doubt that I would have developed my passion for the game. I remember going through his older baseball cards on more than one occasion as I strived to build a collection rivaling his. I remember one summer in particular that we collected the 1987 Topps set together. It’s the set with the wood bordering, the prize of the set being on the far right:

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My dad showed me his 20+ Darryl Strawberry rookies that contain more worth being sold as bicycle spokes noise makers than they do at a trade show these days, he showed me his 1961 Roger Maris, his Cal Ripken Jr. rookie, and this Eddie Matthews card from 1959 among many others.

My dad also taught me how to own my future opponents at Around the World after beating me hundreds of times in our backyard back in Michigan. It was during those games that I learned that you better call board if you’re going to use the backboard, otherwise you will be denied credit! He, of course, also took me to my first ballgame at Tiger Stadium. Thanks to the wonders of retrosheet.org, I was able to find the boxscore and play-by-play of the first game that I remember attending. At age 5, this wasn’t the first game that I ever went to, just the first one I remember.

For my dad and I, sports are a great landscape upon which our relationship flourishes. Consider that we both more or less hate talking on the phone with people, yet we’ll have regular hourlong conversations about our teams and the goings-on in sports. Living almost 400 miles away means I don’t go home much (or as often as I should my mom would say), and my dad isn’t exactly an email kind of guy so we have to use the phone.

That isn’t to say he’s computer illiterate, not by a longshot, or else he wouldn’t be able to (fiercely) compete in our fantasy baseball league. I remember when I first started getting involved in the league, usually just watching the live draft in our living room until I finally joined as a teenager. Each summer I followed the players of both my mom’s and dad’s teams eagerly awaiting the weekly update my dad would bring home from work after he and his co-workers pulled the numbers from USA Today and plugged them into Lotus 1-2-3. Could you imagine having to wait a week at a time for standings updates?

My first solo draft is still referenced at least five times a year by my parents. Finally free to choose who I wanted, when I wanted I selected Mike MacFarlane in the fifth round. I won’t bore you with full details of the league setup and keepers, let’s just say it was a bit of a reach. I believe the error in judgement occured in 1994 and MacFarlane was on the heels of a 20-HR season at catcher, so I snapped him up. In the strike-shortened season, he hit 14 home runs with 47 runs batted in and a .255 average, in other words not a fifth round pick.

Ok, enough of the nostalgia, I could tell a hundred more stories about memories I have related to my father and sports, but the point is, I love him and he’s a great, great man.

Wednesday: 06.7.2006

Alfonso Soriano: NL MVP?

With the injury to Albert Pujols, the National League Most Valuable Player is at least temporarily back up for grabs. Pujols can probably miss 3-4 weeks comfortably without losing the inside track to the award, but let’s examine another candidate if only to highlight the kind of season he is having. Washington Nationals leftfielder Alfonso Soriano has transitioned remarkably well into both a National Leaguer and an outfielder. Two and a half months ago, Soriano was refusing to play his new position in a preseason game for the Nats. Many predicted a turmoil-ridden stint in Washington that would likely end before the season ran out. Instead, Soriano is having a career year and actually receiving some accolades for his improved play in left. Neither Soriano nor the Nationals have discussed an extension, but you can bet that the team is far more interested in one than they were in the preseason.

With his 22nd home run last night, Soriano raised his pace for 2006 to 60, which would set a new career-best by 21 (2002). During the 2002 season, he was just one home run from becoming the 4th member of the 40 HR-40 SB club. If he maintained his current paces, he would be the lone member of the 60-30 club. In fact, he is on pace to set watermarks in home runs, runs batted in, walks, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage:

Year Team AB R H HR RBI BB SB BA OBP SLG
2006 WAS 239 44 74 22 45 19 13 0.310 0.363 0.628
On Pace WAS 656 120 203 60 123 52 35 0.310 0.362 0.625
2005 TEX 637 102 171 36 104 33 30 0.268 0.309 0.512
2004 TEX 608 77 170 28 91 33 18 0.280 0.324 0.484
2003 NYY 682 114 198 38 91 38 35 0.290 0.338 0.525
2002 NYY 696 128 209 39 102 23 41 0.300 0.332 0.547
2001 NYY 574 77 154 18 73 29 43 0.268 0.304 0.432
2000 NYY 50 5 9 2 3 1 2 0.180 0.196 0.360
1999 NYY 8 2 1 1 1 0 0 0.125 0.125 0.500



But is it good enough for MVP consideration? First off, his Nationals are 26-33 and very unlikely to finish to the season above .500. Fair or not, that alone eliminates him from several ballots. Winning the MVP as part of a sub-.500 team just doesn’t happen. There are exceptions, most recently Alex Rodriguez nabbing the hardware as part of a 71-91 Texas Rangers team, but there have been too many cases where a superior player on an inferior team gives way to the leader of a winning team. Rodriguez once again comes to mind as he clearly outclassed Miguel Tejada in 2002, but Tejada’s A’s had 31 more wins and a playoff berth. So from the outset, Soriano is unlikely to get the proper consideration that his numbers warrant (should he hold/improve the pace of his numbers). Thus, we’re already engaging in a hypothetical situation.

Looking at it hypothetically allows us to examine the statistics that are typically overlooked in the voting process. First, let’s look at Win Shares. Hardball Times gives us a look at the leaders thus far:

(*note-I’ve eliminated Pujols, who is obviously first and also the pitchers assuming, maybe incorrectly, that the MVP will go to a hitter)

Through 5/26/06

Year  Last  First  Tm  Lg  Pos  Batting  Fielding  ExpWS  WSP  WSAB  TOT WS
2006 Berkman L HOU NL 1B 10 0.8 5 1.009 7 11
2006 Abreu B PHI NL OF 9.6 0.9 5 0.986 7 10
2006 Utley C PHI NL 2B 8.9 1.3 5 0.937 6 10
2006 Beltran C NYN NL OF 6.5 2.4 4 1.007 6 9
2006 Giles B SD NL OF 7.9 1.2 5 0.777 5 9
2006 Ensberg M HOU NL 3B 8.9 0.6 5 0.828 5 9
2006 Estrada J ARI NL C 5.1 2.7 3 1.019 5 8
2006 Winn R SF NL OF 5.7 2 5 0.667 4 8
2006 Lee C MIL NL OF 7.9 0.4 5 0.739 4 8
2006 Delgado C NYN NL 1B 7.2 0.8 5 0.721 4 8
2006 Cabrera M FLA NL 3B 7.1 0.6 5 0.725 4 8
2006 Lopez F CIN NL SS 6.7 1 5 0.652 4 8
2006 Jones A ATL NL OF 6.8 1.5 5 0.756 4 8
2006 Soriano A WAS NL OF 7.4 0.9 5 0.738 4 8
2006 Walker T CHN NL 1B 5.7 1.1 4 0.731 4 7
2006 Bonds B SF NL OF 6.7 0.5 4 0.883 4 7
2006 Wright D NYN NL 3B 6.6 1 5 0.666 4 7
2006 Johnson N WAS NL 1B 7.1 0.3 5 0.665 4 7
2006 Fielder P MIL NL 1B 6.6 0.6 5 0.685 4 7
2006 Roberts D SD NL OF 6 1.2 4 0.73 4 7
2006 McCann B ATL NL C 5 1.9 3 0.901 4 7
2006 Dunn A CIN NL OF 6.4 0.7 5 0.642 3 7
2006 Greene K SD NL SS 4.7 2 5 0.618 3 7
2006 Kent J LAN NL 2B 4.9 2.1 5 0.683 3 7
2006 Vidro J WAS NL 2B 5.8 0.9 5 0.639 3 7
2006 Hawpe B COL NL OF 5.7 1.4 5 0.678 3 7
2006 Reyes J NYN NL SS 6.2 1.3 6 0.623 3 7
2006 Kearns A CIN NL OF 5.9 1 5 0.617 3 7



Soriano finds himself in a tie for fourth with some elite company ahead of him; winning elite company. I wouldn’t be surprised if an updated version has Soriano closer to the top as he has hit .347 (16-for-46) with six home runs and 13 runs batted in since May 26th. While the numbers may change, the players involved will likely just be jockeying for position most of the season barring injury. Only a few standouts appear to be out of their league including Johnny Estrada, Todd Walker, Dave Roberts, and the now-injured Brian McCann.

The next non-standard statistic I like to look at when assessing the best of the best, is Baseball Prospectus’ VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). Defined by the site as: “The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense.” I have once again removed Pujols (#1 here as well) and give the next 10 through yesterday:

# NAME TEAM POS LG YEAR PA PA% AVG OBP SLG SB CS MLV PMLV VORP
2 Miguel Cabrera FLO 3b NL 2006 245 11.40% 0.349 0.437 0.593 6 1 28.5 23.8 32.5
3 Jason Bay PIT lf NL 2006 260 11.50% 0.305 0.427 0.614 5 1 27.0 21.1 30.0
4 Chase Utley PHI 2b NL 2006 259 11.50% 0.323 0.398 0.541 6 3 18.1 20.2 27.5
5 Alfonso Soriano WAS lf NL 2006 259 11.40% 0.310 0.363 0.628 13 7 24.0 18.2 25.8
6 David Wright NYN 3b NL 2006 255 11.10% 0.327 0.400 0.559 8 1 21.0 16.3 25.5
7 Nomar Garciaparra LAN 1b NL 2006 175 7.50% 0.363 0.423 0.624 2 0 21.5 17.0 24.3
8 Nick Johnson WAS 1b NL 2006 249 11.00% 0.296 0.415 0.539 5 2 19.4 13.0 23.0
9 Carlos Beltran NYN cf NL 2006 211 9.20% 0.266 0.389 0.572 8 2 14.2 14.5 21.4
10 Andruw Jones ATL cf NL 2006 248 10.80% 0.289 0.355 0.546 3 0 13.1 13.4 21.3
11 Edgar Renteria ATL ss NL 2006 230 10.00% 0.320 0.401 0.465 6 2 11.6 13.7 20.7



This is why Soriano refused to play left field. His value (over replacement) as a second baseman figures to be much higher than at a deeper, more offense-oriented position like left field. Given his production to this point, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest that Soriano would be second to Pujols in VORP if he were still at 2nd base. He nearly edges Philadelphia second baseman Chase Utley as a left fielder. Cabrera and Bay have the same team liability as Soriano playing on two of the worst teams in all of baseball.

Aside from the collection of traditional stats, Win Shares & VORP are, in my opinion, two of the best measures for judging for a Most Valuable Player. Last year, Pujols and Rodriguez both justified their wins by finishing atop their respective leagues in Win Shares. Pujols was 2nd to Derrek Lee is VORP. In 2004, three Yankees topped Vladimir Guerrero in WS, but only Gary Sheffield garnered significant consideration finishing second. Based on the early WS & VORP returns, I don’t think that Soriano is going to have a particularly strong case for the MVP in 2006… at least not the “real” baseball MVP.

His power-speed combination coupled with his eligibility at 2nd base make Soriano a fantasy baseball owner’s dream. As expected, he has provided the most valuable non-Albert fantasy season to date. My primary reason for doing this exercise was to see if I was blurring the lines between fantasy & real with my Soriano assessment. I was.