Baseball By Paul

Down the stretch we come!!! Finishing off Echelon 3 and just two more to go…

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7

Echelon 3, Part III – Ready to Shine?
82. Joba Chamberlain, 24, New York Yankees – Yes he’s currently a reliever, but he’s an injury away from being in the rotation. That or Phil Hughes ineffectiveness which isn’t completely out of the realm of possibilities. This is one of the biggest wastes of talent in the game right now because they Yankees have jerked him around and ruined him mentally. He has tremendous value even in the bullpen, but I think he will net at least double-digit starts, too. A hybrid season between the rotation and pen is probably best for him at this stage. If the cost is down as it should be, he’s worth investing in.

81. Anibal Sanchez, 26, Florida Marlins – More injury issues for Sanchez limited him to his third straight season of less than 90 innings and he’s never pitched more than 114 at the major league level, but he is just 26 years old he has posted two nice K rates in a row (8.7 in 2008, 7.4 last year). I still believe so draft the skills and hope for health.

80. Joe Saunders, 29, Los Angeles Angels – With back-to-back sub-5.0 K/9 rates, he’s not a sexy pick at all. In fact, I’m 99% certain that most owners vomit while or immediately drafting him. But the simple fact is he logs innings and wins. In 2008, he managed a lucky ERA (3.41) with skills that portended an ERA nearly a full run higher (4.32). In 2009, he displayed nearly equal skills and was justly saddled with a 4.60 ERA. There is something to be said for the reliability of a 190-inning starter, but don’t expect better than a 4.30 ERA.

79. Brad Penny, 32, St. Louis Cardinals – Dave Duncan Fever, Catch It!! Penny is just two years removed from a 208 inning, 3.03 ERA and 16 win season. His ERA (5.61) was ugly in the AL with Boston, but his skills were solid while his ERA in San Francisco (2.59) was excellent but his K-rate dipped to 4.9. He still managed a 2.2 K/BB thanks to a miniscule 1.9 walk rate so overall he was pitching well regardless of the end result. Now he goes to St. Louis where pitching coach Duncan has built aces out of much, much less. The ceiling for Penny for 2010 is becoming the third ace in St. Louis; bid with confidence.

78. Jason Hammel, 27, Colorado Rockies – Just needed an opportunity with the stacked rotation in Tampa Bay squeezing him out so he was traded and had a very nice season. His strikeouts went up and walks went down leading to an excellent 3.2 K/BB ratio. Though the NL helped him as a whole, Coors Field didn’t work out as well as he posted a 5.73 ERA at home. Yet his K/9 (7.4) and K/BB (3.7) were both better at home so I’d bet on him to improve that home ERA and push for a sub-4.00 ERA in 2010.

77. Trevor Cahill, 22, Oakland A’s – I don’t think the 21-year old Cahill got enough credit for getting through a 179-inning rookie year with a reasonable 4.63 ERA and 10 wins. That is mainly because his season is juxtaposed against Brett Anderson’s which isn’t really fair for many starting pitchers let alone a rookie who has never pitched above AA. He didn’t bring his 10.0 K/9 from the minor leagues with him to the majors, but that doesn’t mean he is destined to be a 4.5 K/9 pitcher the rest of his career. He’s 22 and still learning a lot about how to pitch in the majors. He’s coming very cheap so I really like him keeper leagues because he will contribute a solid in 2010, but also give you a low-cost, high-upside keeper for 2011.

76. Barry Zito, 32, San Francisco Giants – Zito’s really solid season is being overlooked and no one trusts he can do it again. Yes the strikeout rate was his highest since 2001, but at 7.2 it was essentially in line with his 6.4 K/9 the last five years. He’s going to walk batters, it’s that simple but as long as he’s striking out 6.4+ batters and logging 190+ innings, he has value. Just because San Francisco will never get their return on investment from him doesn’t mean you will suffer the same fate. And he’s only 32, that’s hardly old.

75. Brian Matusz, 23, Baltimore Orioles – It was only 45 innings, but Matusz skipped AAA and made it to the majors in his first professional season after stops at A+ and AA. He acquitted himself quite well with a 7.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Forget the 4.63 ERA because those rates are worthy of a much better figure over the course of a season. This polished college pitcher is ready for the big time and holds legitimate AL-Only value and could feasibly become a mixed league value if he can maintain those rates or better throughout 2010.

74. Phil Hughes, 24, New York Yankees – I mentioned earlier that his ineffectiveness could land Joba Chamberlain back in the rotation, but don’t confuse that with me predicting ineffectiveness for him. He struggled in seven starts with an ERA over 5.00, but he still struck out 8.0 per nine and managed a 2.1 K/BB while starting so he was hardly awful. But he was truly brilliant in relief with an 11.0 K/9 and 5.0 K/BB in 51 innings. He earned the fifth spot in the rotation and on pure talent alone he deserves a much higher ranking. But we’ve seen this before with a Yankee stud so I’ll lean conservative with Hughes until I see him make the transition back into the rotation.

73. Justin Masterson, 25, Cleveland Indians – Like Hughes, Masterson fared much better coming out of the pen but he showed glimpses as a starter. He’s now a full-time starter and he will need to cut down that 4.2 BB/9 while holding most of that 8.3 K/9 rate to be successful. One underrated tidbit about Hughes and Masterson is their dual SP/RP eligibility in leagues that differentiate the pitching spots. I like this former top prospect to take another step forward and justify the praise he garnered as an elite trade chip in Boston before finally being shipped away for star catcher Victor Martinez.

72. J.A. Happ, 27, Philadelphia Phillies – A 12-4 record and a shiny sub-3.00 ERA for the National League’s best team will get Happ overdrafted in many leagues, but don’t fall prey. He was fairly lucky in his peripherals (high LOB%, low hits against %) and his high flyball rate (43%) won’t help much, either. Also forgotten is the fact that he was an old rookie so there isn’t necessarily any growth coming at 27 years old. He’s a 4.30 ERA pitcher with 135-140 Ks in 200 innings who could pile up wins if things break right thanks to an excellent offense supporting him.

71. Aaron Cook, 31, Colorado Rockies – A rich man’s Joe Saunders, Cook doesn’t strike batters out at a very impressive clip (4.0 K/9 last 3 years) and that instantly gets him overlooked by the bulk of the fantasy baseball community. Yet he possesses a tremendous groundball rate (58% career mark in 1088 IP) and sharp control with a BB/9 at or below 2.7 every year since 2005. He comes cheaper than Saunders, yet he’s far more reliable.

70. Bronson Arroyo, 33, Cincinnati Reds – Consistency is inexplicably an undesirable trait for fantasy baseball owners when they scout pitchers. How else can you explain Arroyo’s 322 ADP? At a position rife with injuries, Arroyo has notched 200+ innings for five straight seasons averaging 215 with 13 wins, 146 Ks, 4.09 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. What exactly is wrong with that in the middle-to-back end of your rotation? Nothing. Set it and forget it.

69. Rick VandenHurk, 25, Florida Marlins – Plenty of attention is paid to Florida’s dynamic 1-2 punch of Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco with good reason, but the remaining 3/5ths have been a bit overlooked as a whole. Anibal Sanchez and Chris Volstad have already been given their due on this list, but VandenHurk is a darkhorse I really like for 2010. The Marlins appear to foolishly be putting a lot of stock in VandenHurk’s spring ERA so he might not start the season in the rotation, but Clay Hensley is still Clay Hensley so RVH will get his chance. In the meantime, he will be a valuable bullpen asset.

68. Mark Buehrle, 31, Chicago White Sox – A rich man’s Bronson Arroyo, Buehrle is the model of consistency with nine straight 200-inning seasons and seven ERAs of 3.89 or better and just one above 4.14. He doesn’t strikeout many, but that is only very detrimental in leagues with innings caps. Two no hitters including a perfect game last year keep Buehrle’s profile somewhat high, but he still doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves.

67. Brett Myers, 29, Houston Astros – A change of scenery should serve Myers well and he brings a solid skills profile with him that deserves consideration. His strikeout rate tumbled from 2007 to 2008 and then dipped again last year, but he’s still above 6.0 and has still held above 2.0 K/BB rate. I think the strikeout rate moves back up over 7.0-7.5 in a very sharp comeback season reminiscent of 2006. He doesn’t cost anything (334 ADP), so why not give him a shot?

66. Neftali Feliz, 22, Texas Rangers – I know it’s sacrilegious to put Feliz this low, but I am interested in helping you win, not just latching onto the flavor of the month. I believe Feliz is a truly special talent who will be great, but seasons like Tommy Hanson’s are the exception while ones like David Price’s or worse are the rule for untested young phenoms. Feliz had an excellent 31 relief innings last year, but it was THIRTY ONE innings and it came in relief. He will have his ups and downs in 2010 and it’s laughable to see him drafted ahead of Scott Kazmir, David Price, Gavin Floyd, Jorge de la Rosa and Kevin Slowey among MANY others. This is a Matt Wieters situation for 2010. Avoid unless his price comes down to a realistic level.

65. Carl Pavano, 34, Minnesota Twins – Resides on the “do not draft under any circumstance” for many owners, but those owners are only hurting their teams. His ERA wasn’t great (5.10 combined between Cleveland & Minnesota), but the 3.8 K/BB was elite. If he can maintain that kind of excellent rate and hold the improved K rate he showed in Minnesota (7.2, up from 6.3 in CLE), then he’s going to be a hidden gem at 365 ADP. His time in New York was a complete and utter disaster, but don’t let that foolishly keep you from making a smart decision about rostering him in 2010 especially at his depressed cost.

64. Rick Porcello, 21, Detroit Tigers – Like Trevor Cahill, don’t assume that Porcello is locked into his 4.7 K/9 just because that’s what he showed in his first big league season at age 20. He is a developing ace who more than held his own despite never pitching above A+ ball in the minors. His velocity improved as the season wore on and he had two 8 K starts in the last month and a half, both in just 5.7 innings. He might not be ready for an elite K rate in 2010, but I’d expect to see improvement to the acceptable 6.0-mark. This is a superstar in the making.

63. Wade Davis, 24, Tampa Bay Rays – Very well seasoned in the minor leagues, Davis grabbed a major league cup of coffee in 36 late-season innings last year and impressed. He struck out 8.9 batters per nine while walking only 3.2 (2.8 K/BB) en route to a 3.72 in six starts. He is the next in what has become a factory of arms in Tampa Bay and he just recently nailed down the 5th spot in the rotation. To give you an idea of how strong the Tampa rotation is, note that Davis is the first of their five in the list and there are only 63 spots left. Invest heavily in Rays despite their residence in the AL Beast.

62. Derek Lowe, 37, Atlanta Braves – He wasn’t as good as his 3.24 ERA in 2008, but he’s not as bad as his 4.67 ERA in 2009, either. Even at 37 years old, he’s somewhere in between thanks in large part to an excellent groundball rate. Now, that rate has fallen yearly since 2006, but even at 56% it’s elite. Lowe is a workhorse who has averaged 206 innings per year since 2002 never throwing fewer than 183 in that span and notching an average of 15 wins, too. He’s a 4.00 ERA pitcher at this juncture, but as I mentioned before, consistency is a skill and it shouldn’t be overlooked.

61. Ervin Santana, 27, Los Angeles Angels – Dealing with a sore elbow that he reportedly banged on a piece of furniture, Santana says it is no cause for alarm. For now, I’ll believe him. As such, I like him for a bounceback in 2010. He is very inconsistent with a wide variety of ERAs in his five seasons, but he’s never had a sub-2.0 K/BB and his lowest K/9 is 6.2 in that span. His two best seasons came in the two he stayed healthy (not terribly surprising) and topped 200 innings of work. If the elbow does prove to be nothing more than a little bump, then Big Erv is ready for a big year.

60. Clay Buchholz, 25, Boston Red Sox – Buchholz can look so amazing at times and so awful at others. Those times can come in the same game if you catch him on the right (or wrong?) night. The no-hitter has kept his expectations sky high and that’s OK when you consider how dominant he has been in the minors (2.42 ERA in 443 IP), but he needs to harness his control (4.1 BB/9 191 IP) to begin paying dividends on #4 prospect in the MLB rating from 2008. I’m not sure how he is being drafted ahead of Kevin Slowey, Jeff Niemann, Francisco Liriano and Rich Harden among others. Like Feliz, avoid unless the price tag gets reasonable. Of course, Joba Chamberlain is being drafted ahead of Buchholz, so who knows what the hell these mock drafters are thinking?!

59. Shaun Marcum, 28, Toronto Blue Jays – After back-to-back big seasons, Marcum was on his way to becoming a very solid #2 starter thanks to a 2.5 K/BB in 310 innings across 2007 and 2008. His strikeout and groundball rates had improved from ’07 to ’08 before falling victim to Tommy John Surgery in late 2008. He got a minor league cup of coffee (16 IP) to close out 2009 and he fared quite well (2.30 ERA, 13 K, 3 BB). Absence makes the brain grow forgetful as Marcum is falling to a 329 ADP (87th SP overall) behind the likes of Chris Young and Randy Wells. He could be one of the biggest profits on the mound in 2010. Buy, buy, buy!!!

58. Stephen Strasburg, 21, Washington Nationals – Here he is! The toast of the town has met expectations early on with an excellent spring striking out 12 in nine innings allowing just two earned runs. But the Nats wisely sent him to minor league camp and will give him a tour of AA and AAA before bringing up to the show sometime in May or June. As I mentioned before, it’s important to realize that seasons like Tommy Hanson’s (11-4, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 128 IP) are the exception, not the rule. Since 2000, there have been three rookie starting pitchers to post a sub-3.00 ERA, sub-1.20 WHIP and 8.0+ K/9 in 128+ innings. Hanson, Roy Oswalt and Brandon Webb make up the list. Strasburg looks like he will become an elite talent, but that doesn’t mean instant success. Unless you are in a keeper league, temper your expectations and don’t be afraid to not get Strasburg in lieu of overpaying.

57. Jonathan Sanchez, 27, San Francisco Giants – It’s hard not to salivate over a 9.8 K/9 rate in 163 innings. It comes with a huge walk rate (4.8), too, but Sanchez is definitely moving forward. Despite 4.3-4.8 BB/9 rates in each of the past three seasons, Sanchez has sustained a 2.0+ K/BB across 373 innings. Lefties tend to develop a little bit slower than righties; expect another step forward for Sanchez in 2010.

56. Joe Blanton, 29, Philadelphia Phillies – Blanton flourished in his first full National League season with a career high 7.5 K/9 en route to workman-like 4.05 ERA in 195 innings of work. There is nothing particularly flashy about Blanton, but as we have seen with many of the guys in this group, he’s a horse. His ERA has bounced around, but in the NL I think it will stabilize around the 4.00-level. There is no reason to believe the 7.5 K/9 won’t stick around, too.

55. Ben Sheets, 31, Oakland A’s – Billy Beane’s A’s were about as unexpected to land star free agent Sheets as the Reds were to land Aroldis Chapman. He had enjoyed his second best season ever in 2008 before losing the entire 2009 season to an arm injury. Much has been made of his disastrous spring start in which he didn’t log an out and allowed nine earned runs, but honestly, who cares? Many very good starting pitchers absolutely suck in spring only to pitch just fine in the regular season. The only reason Sheets is getting the attention is because he’s returning from injury. For the record, he threw four innings allowing one run and striking out four just five days after that outing, so he’s fine. As someone who hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2004 and returning from injury, reliability will be an issue but 150 innings of Sheets is better than 200 from many others.

54. Hiroki Kuroda, 35, Los Angeles Dodgers – I love this guy’s skill set as he ramped up his strikeout rate by one to 6.7 K/9 while trimmed his walk rate a tad to 1.8 BB/9 resulting in a brilliant 3.6 K/BB. I expect more of the same in 2010 with more volume as he should approach 185-200 innings of work. That kind of skill profile for 185 innings is an absolute steal at a 236 ADP. Go the extra dollar.

53. Randy Wolf, 33, Milwaukee Brewers – The Dodgers should have hung onto Wolf as they now search to fill their 5th starter spot with Vicente Padilla already in place at the four hole. Wolf battled injuries from 2004-2007, but has posted 190 and 214 inning the last two seasons with very strong results to show for it. Now he moves to Milwaukee where he will become the two to Yovani Gallardo giving the Brew Crew a legit 1-2 punch they sorely lacked last year after CC Sabathia’s departure.

Here is the next part, just 82 more! 🙂

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6

Echelon 3, Part II – Getting There

100. Kevin Millwood, 34, Baltimore Orioles – He had no business ending up with a 3.67 ERA last year with an ugly 1.7 K/BB and 1.2 HR/9 found behind the curtain of that undeserved mark. Unfortunately that performance has driven his price up well beyond what he’s worth (15th round ADP) making him someone to leave alone completely unless that price comes way down. He will pile up the innings, but they won’t necessarily be any good and you should thank your lucky stars if he gives you anything below a 4.50 ERA in 2010.

99. Dallas Braden, 26, Oakland A’s – Braden has back-to-back seasons with good end results, but the skills backing those figures up are a little disconcerting. He came through the minors with a 10.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 347 innings, but only brought 5.7 K/9 with him to the majors. His long term success seems to hinge on whether or not he can elevate that strikeout rate up into the 7-8 range if not all the way to the elite levels he reached in the minors. Fueling his 3.89 ERA from a year ago was also his 0.6 HR/9 which was a vast improvement over his 1.0 from 2008. Even if he only bumps the Ks to 6.5 while holding the walk rate steady around 3.0 and maintains the HR/9 gains, then he is a great endgame pick with a very favorable home ballpark. There is so much starting pitching talent in Oakland that someone is going to get squeezed and whoever that is will have their value squeezed. Braden is in line for a spot right now so he’s worth a late look and that is exactly what he is getting at a 20th round pick at MDC right now.

98. Luke Hochevar, 26, Kansas City Royals – It’s not coming along as quickly as you would expect from a #1 overall pick, but not everyone progresses the same. You would probably call me crazy if I told you his second half, during which he posted a 7.35 ERA, was a major growth period. But alas, it was. He refined a splitter and became a strikeout machine (8.4 in 86 IP) and turned the walks way down (2.7 BB/9) leading to a sparkling 3.1 K/BB. So what the hell happened that gave him such an ugly ERA and WHIP? Bad luck was a factor, but so was the major case of gopheritis (14 HR!). Zack Greinke might finally have the 2 to complete the 1-2 punch in KC in the form of Hochevar. And you can have him for pennies on the dollar as he is a 21st round pick in AL-Only leagues representing an excellent value late.

97. Jake Westbrook, 32, Cleveland Indians – Missed all of 2009, but he’s a better version of Kevin Millwood who can actually be relied upon for a 4.00-4.30 ERA in 200 innings of work. His strikeout rate will sit somewhere between 4.7 and 5.2, but that’s not why you’re going for someone like Westbrook. In his last five full seasons, he has a 0.7 HR/9 which has allowed him to have success with such middling skills. As a 22nd round pick, his price is just right, too.

96. Mat Latos, 22, San Diego Padres – I like the long term potential and love the home park, but he is going to have an innings ceiling (around 150) and might not even have a starting spot for a while how Tim Stauffer, Wade LeBlanc and Sean Gallagher shake out this spring. All four of the guys are pitching, so it won’t be easy. Stauffer and Gallagher are out of options while Latos has just 47 innings at AA and has yet to pitch in AAA, so he could end up as the odd man out. Draft the skill, but you may want to look elsewhere if your league doesn’t have a reserve or minor league roster to stash Latos.

95. Gio Gonzalez, 24, Oakland A’s – A messy when you look at the things that matter in fantasy baseball (5.75 ERA, 1.71 WHIP), but his 9.9 K/9 rate is so very enticing. He is a premier talent still developing even though it seems like he has been around forever. If he can avoid the implosion games (like his 11 ER in 2.7 IP vs. Minn in July), get some good luck to counterbalance last year’s bad luck and keep blowing batters away, then he can be an effective low-to-mid 4.00s ERA, 150+ strikeout guy. That’s just a good case scenario, if everything breaks PERFECTLY for him, then he can have an Oliver Perez circa 2004 season (2.98 ERA, 239 K in 196 IP).

94. Clayton Richard, 26, San Diego Padres – Is there anything better than finding out you are moving from home run friendly US Celluar Field to everything stifling PETCO Park? Richard turned up his strikeout rate to an appetizing 6.7 after just 5.5 in his 48 inning debut back in 2008, but his walk rate also rose from 2.5 to 4.2. If he can balance that figure somewhere close to 3.0, he is poised to be the next big time PETCO benefactor. Use Kevin Correia’s 2009 as a guide for Richard’s upside in 2010 (3.91 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 142 K).

93. Chris Young, 31, San Diego Padres – Despite three straight solid years from 2006-2008 with an ERA below 4.00, many were a little skeptical of Young and saw him as a product of PETCO. His walk rate was ticking upward from 2005 on and things came to a head in 2008 when it topped 4.0 and took his K/BB below 2.0 for the first time ever. Things got much worse last year in an injury-shortened season as the BB rate ticked up again but the strikeout rate plummeted to 5.9, well off the 8.1 K/9 career mark he had coming into 2009. One thing that always angers me is when people would say, “Can you believe Texas gave up this guy!?” when talking about Young because he would have a career ERA approaching 6.00 if had stayed in Texas with his +50% FB rate. He is best suited for PETCO and if you can get him in a league where you can spot start him at home until he proves something on the road, then I’d invest in him. If you have to start him fulltime, expect a low-to-mid 4.00s ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning.

92. Paul Maholm, 28, Pittsburgh Pirates – Maholm is a perfect example of how middling the ceiling of an average K/9 pitcher can be no matter how sharp the control. He has three straight seasons with virtually the same skills of 5.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 yet three vastly different ERAs: 5.02, 3.71 and 4.44. His highest K rate in that three year span was 6.1 in 2008. That was also the year he posted that 3.71 ERA, not surprisingly. At 28, he’s unlikely to raise his K rate significantly, so he’s basically a WYSIWYG guy who will give you 190 innings with a passable ERA and average-to-below average WHIP because of how many hits he allows.

91. Gil Meche, 31, Kansas City Royals – Meche lost his way a bit last year after back-to-back strong seasons with the Royals. His control abandoned while his strikeout rate dipped and his ERA exploded to 5.09 in 129 innings. Injuries derailed the season and were a likely cause for the struggles prior to packing it in for the year in August, so he’s coming in at a great value for 2010. Plan for a 4.10 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 200 innings, which isn’t bad for the 13th round of an AL-Only or 21st round of a Mixed League.

90. David Bush, 30, Milwaukee Brewers – There is usually a guy in your league who still has that glimmer of hope for Bush to finally put it all together for an ERA and WHIP that match his skills. If I’m in your league, it’s probably me. Since coming to Milwaukee, Bush has a 6.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 yet his ERA in that time is 4.86 because he completely falls apart with runners on and can’t keep the ball in the yard at an acceptable rate (1.3 HR/9). He isn’t costing anything right now (20th round ADP in NL-Only) setting him up to be a tremendous value if he can just get back to what he did in 2008 (4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP).

89. John Maine, 29, New York Mets – Maine’s underlying stats are all the map, but he has remained productive throughout posting passable ERAs in each of the past four seasons even though it has risen each year. His strikeout rate has dipped in each of the past two years, but his HR/9 has fallen each of the past four years, too. His walk rate the past two years has been above 4.0 which has taken his ERA above the same mark, if he can get back to the 3.5 mark from 2007 (or better) then he could be poised for a strong comeback season. Of course, above all he needs to stay healthy as he has lost significant time the last two years. If he can go 180 innings, he can be a useful mid-rotation starter.

88. Kevin Correia, 29, San Diego Padres – Correia is not just a PETCO product, rather the Padres finally gave him a real chance and let him throw 198 innings. He posted skills similar to what he had done in his career prior to 2009 and the results were solid as he maintained an ERA below 4.00 (3.91) and a solid 1.30 WHIP. I wouldn’t pay for more than a carbon copy of 2009 this year, but if the Padres improve a bit, he could reach the mid-teens in wins and two years of a better than 7.0 K rate suggest he could reach 160 strikeouts, too.

87. Chris Volstad, 23, Florida Marlins – After being a bit overrated based on an 84 inning sample coming into 2009, I think Volstad has shifted to the other end of the spectrum and now he’s being overlooked after a 5.21 ERA in 159 innings last year. He had a rough patch late in the season and was eventually demoted and thus a bit forgotten, but he’s a groundball pitcher with above average strikeout (6.1) and walk rates (3.3). Those rate were at 6.6 and 2.7 in the first half of the season of the season showing what he is capable of when he is going well. He’s got a 187 ADP in NL-Only leagues right now so he’s a great value that I highly recommend eyeing late. His profile is a recipe for success and now he has 243 major league innings under his belt.

86. Joel Pineiro, 31, Los Angeles Angels – Pineiro had a brilliant season last year, his best since 2003, thanks to impeccable control (major-league best 1.1 BB/9) and an elite groundball rate (60%). He also had an absurdly lucky 0.5 HR/9. Pineiro has always been OK at inducing groundballs and limiting walks, but last year he was amazing at both and it fueled the 3.49 ERA. He will need to repeat both to sniff that ERA again, especially if he plans to keep striking out 4.4 batters per nine innings or even the 4.9 K/9 he had in 2008. He’s moving back to the AL and his last two full seasons in that league yielded ERAs of 6.36 and 5.62. In other words, be careful here. I think we will see at least a 0.50 ERA jump but he could pile up the wins again thanks to the offense and bullpen supporting him. He might just be a better control version of Joe Saunders, which isn’t awful, but hardly great either.

85. Ricky Romero, 25, Toronto Blue Jays – Why does an up & coming pitcher with a great groundball and very good strikeout rate have to get stuck in the AL Beast? Such is the fate of Romero which will probably cost him at least 0.30 runs of ERA each year right out of the gate. He baffled the league the first time around posting a 6-3 record with a 2.87 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 72 innings in the first half, but they caught up in the second half tattooing for a 5.27 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in 106 innings. His groundball rate held strong across both halves, in fact it improved in the second, but he dropped a full strikeout to 6.8 and his walk rate ballooned to 4.7 from 3.0. It’s his move now and how he answers the adjustments the league made will determine how successful he can be in 2010. His is the perfect profile (high K/high GB) to bet on, so don’t be afraid to risk that extra dollar on Romero.

84. Brandon Morrow, 25, Toronto Blue Jays – Morrow has been Joba’d to date and his results have borne the brunt of the abuse, but now he gets a fresh start with Toronto and they seem set on putting in the rotation and leaving him there. He’s got a tremendous arm and can blow batters away at better than one per inning, but he has yet to show any control in the majors thus far (5.8 BB/9 in 198 IP). He is still very young so that control should develop, but until it does his wildness will limit his upside. For now, think of him as a right-handed Jonathan Sanchez capable of a boatload of strikeouts, but middling ratios.

83. Koji Uehara, 35, Baltimore Orioles – He’s essentially removed from the list because it looks like the O’s have permanently moved him to the bullpen. Just removing him and moving forward would’ve messed up all the numbers so I thought I’d mention him and let you see where I had him assuming he was going to be a starter. I definitely liked him in the rotation, but I still like him a middle relief option if you are someone who goes for that strategy.

Continuing the monster starting pitcher list…

Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4

Echelon 4, Part II – Wishing Well

(Note: this entire group has at least some MLB experience)

26 Year Olds

1. Fausto Carmona, Cleveland Indians – I bet you are at least a little surprised to see that he is just 26 years. He is two years removed from a brilliant Cy Young-worthy season, but since then his control has been absolutely horrible with 5.1 BB/9 in 246 innings. Though he continues to induce groundballs at a tremendous rate, he has a weak strikeout rate (just 5.0 K/9 the last two years and it was only 5.7 in his great year) and his batting average against has risen yearly (including two major jumps in LHB OBA). If he can show anything remotely resembling command, then he is worth a flier as 2007 remains a viable upside.

2. Charlie Haeger, Los Angeles Dodgers – Like any knuckleballer, he’s essentially at the mercy of the wind. Just take a look at Tim Wakefield’s year-to-year ERA for an idea of how wild the ride can be if you choose to invest in Haeger.

3. Matt Maloney, Cincinnati Reds – Maloney displayed some pretty solid skills in his 41-inning debut last year including a miniscule 1.8 BB/9 rate and usable 6.2 K/9 rate. But the 2.0 HR/9 rate sank him and led to his 4.87 ERA. In the minors, his K rate has dipped each year since 2006, but so has his walk rate culminating in a 5.0 K/BB in 150 innings last year between AA and AAA. He’s back end of the rotation NL-Only guy who won’t hurt much, but isn’t leading you to victory, either.

4. Brandon McCarthy, Texas Rangers – Another guy you may be surprised to find in the 26 year old list as he has seemingly been around forever. Once a top prospect, McCarthy cracked Baseball America’s Top 100 back in 2005, but he just hasn’t panned out at the major league level in parts of five seasons. His minor league strikeout rate (10.1 in 528 innings) has never translated to the majors (6.1 in 373 innings) nor has his walk rate for that matter (1.9 compared to 3.4) leaving him with an uninspired K/BB rate of 1.8. On top of all that, he has never been able to stay healthy with his 102 innings in 2007 standing as his career high. A clean bill of health under Mike Maddux with the minor league skills he owns would be worth a flier in AL-Only leagues. Monitor him this spring.

5. Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates – The year was a baby step for Morton so while his K/9 held tight at an OK 5.8, he cut his BB/9 from 4.9 to 3.7 and his HR/9 rate from 1.1 to 0.6. The latter was especially instrumental in his ERA drop from 6.15 to 4.55. Control has been an issue even throughout his 665 minor league innings (4.3 BB/9) so last year’s step in that area was a big one. There isn’t a ton of upside here, but for a buck you could do a lot worse to finish off your rotation.

6. Felipe Paulino, Houston Astros – He missed all of 2008 so last year was a first step back meaning he may still be another year away from legitimate production. That said, he still managed 8.6 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 rates in 98 innings but his 1.8 HR/9 rate crushed him and led him to his 6.27 ERA. The walk rate is actually an improvement on his 4.4 BB/9 in 386 minor league innings so if he holds those gains, he could become a viable option. The key will how close he can get to his minor league 0.7 HR/9 rate. Like so many of these 4th and 5th tier guys, their success is predicated upon improving their control and/or home run rate. For Paulino, it’s the latter.

27 Year Olds

1. Alfredo Aceves, New York Yankees – I included him in the starting pitcher list just because of the slight possibility that he wins the fifth spot in the rotation. It’s a longshot without question, but it’s not completely out of the realm of possibilities and thus he gets a nod. He showed some excellent skills last year in relief striking out 7.4 batters and walking just 1.7 per nine innings. Whether he wins the fifth spot or not, he is worth a look in AL-Only leagues as a middle reliever option.

2. Brian Duensing, Minnesota Twins – Standard Twins starting pitcher profile: low strikeouts/lower walks. He didn’t bring all of his control from the minors so he stayed below the 2.0 K/BB threshold, but still managed some solid results (3.64 ERA, 1.37 WHIP). He doesn’t have a set rotation spot right now and frankly, he doesn’t deserve one over the guys they have. At the same, the Minnesota rotation isn’t the bastion of health so he will likely grab some starts.

3. Scott Feldman, Texas Rangers – One of the biggest fantasy all-stars from 2009, Feldman came out of nowhere to 190 strong innings and rack up 17 wins with a 4.08 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. However, his mediocre skills (5.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9) suggest a repeat would be tough. One key to his success was inducing more groundballs than in 2008 allowing defensive star Elvis Andrus to vacuum them up at shortstop. If he can take another step forward in that area, then he can get by with his uninspiring 1.7 K/BB rate. I wouldn’t completely avoid him on draft day, but tread cautiously.

4. Josh Geer, San Diego Padres – Geer refuses to give up walks, but if you want a hit then he is very accommodating (10.2 H/9 in majors; 9.7 in 620 minor league IP) . He doesn’t strike nearly enough batters out either (4.7 K/9 in 103 IP) and home runs absolutely destroyed (2.4 HR/9) him which explains how someone who walks just 2.0 batters per nine can still have an ERA approaching 6.00 in PETCO Park. I love that he limits walks, but it isn’t nearly as cool if you are just trading them for hits. If he gets his act together, he could be a decent filler in NL-Only leagues thanks to his generous home park.

5. Tom Gorzelanny, Chicago Cubs – Well hello there, new Tom Gorzelanny who wants to strike everybody out. It’s nice to meet you. Never known for dominating hitters at the major league level, Gorzelanny finally brought his big strikeout rate to the majors with him (9.0 K/9) albeit in 47 inning sample. Meanwhile his command stayed sharp at 3.3 BB/9 yet he still yielded a 5.55 ERA. He has had significant success in the majors before (2007) and if he can hold some of those strikeout gains then he would be a nice endgame option as the Cubs’ fifth starter. He’s definitely worth keeping an eye on.

6. Sean Marshall, Chicago Cubs – Gorzelanny is worth keeping an eye because for some reason the Cubs hate this guy. While he has been better working out of the bullpen, the Cubs haven’t really given him a legitimate shot at starting in either of the past two seasons (seven and nine starts, respectively). He’s got nice skills across the board and he’s a lefthander so it is a bit surprising that the Cubs have given up on him so quickly in the rotation lately. He did start 43 games across 2006 and 2007 with limited success, but his entire skillset has improved since that time. Gorzelanny and 2009 rookie surprise Randy Wells are question marks at the backend of that rotation so Marshall could get a mini audition at some point this season, but the Cubs will likely throw him back in the pen at the first sign of trouble.

7. Daniel McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates – A solid minor league profile earned him a cup of coffee with the big league club last year and his results were OK given the lackluster skillset. He’s got some pretty good control, but a 4.7 K/9 won’t cut it if he hopes to have any long term success. I like what the Pirates are doing with their overall direction and little is set at the backend of their rotation so I wouldn’t be surprised if McCutchen got another legitimate look just so the Pirates can accurately what, if anything, they have with him.

8. Micah Owings, Cincinnati Reds – *Insert tired joke about his hitting prowess*. Owings’ 2009 was essentially a throwaway thanks to injuries including a bum shoulder and then a baseball to the head that messed up his eardrum. His pre-2009 profile was shaping up nicely with enough strikeouts and decent enough control to match. Home runs have always been a bit of an issue which has only been exacerbated by his two home parks (ARI and CIN), but I don’t think he should be completely tossed to the side just yet. Aroldis Chapman likely won’t break camp with the team meaning the fifth spot is open. If Owings is able to snatch that with solid production, then he could delay Chapman indefinitely.

9. Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers – One of my bigger whiffs of 2009, Parra imploded under the weight of horrible control likely due in large part to shoulder issues that seemed to nag him as he tried to fight through them. He has the kind of talent that could make him 2010’s Ervin Santana circa 2008. Santana always elite talent, but his 2007 was a disaster but he bounced back with a breakout campaign that netted him an All-Star bid and some Cy Young consideration. The strikeout is just tantalizing enough to drop a couple of bucks on him and try him out. Be prepared to jump ship mercilessly if things don’t go according to plan.

10. Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins – See also: Duensing, Brian except Perkins couldn’t finagle any good results from his work.

11. David Purcey, Toronto Blue Jays –He was one of my deeeeep sleepers for 2009, but his control completely abandoned him (5.6 BB/9), which isn’t good when it wasn’t starting from a great place (4.0 BB/9 in 2008). Things were worse in the minors where he posted a 5.0 BB/9 after two seasons in the mid-2.0s. He still owns the skills he has shown previously, but 2009 was a big step backward for Purcey. There doesn’t appear to be an opening for him in the rotation right now and frankly, I’m not sure he could earn one if the fourth or fifth spot were up for grabs.

12. Andrew Sonnanstine, Tampa Bay Rays – A pinpoint control artist whose skills faded across the board in 2009, including that usually strong control. One issue throughout his career has been the inability to strand runners which when paired with his control gives him a real David Bush feel minus a few strikeouts. Unfortunately for Sonny, the Rays’ rotation is ridiculously deep so he won’t get a chance to prove himself as a starter. A good spring could get him shipped out a la Jason Hammel in 2009, which would be great for his chances at being a starter. His is a skillset I generally like if he’s holding at 5.8 K/9 or above, but that K rate has faded yearly since 2007. Monitor closely, but don’t rush to roster him in any format just yet.

13. Jeremy Sowers, Cleveland Indians – I don’t really have anything nice to say about Sowers and if the Indians’ rotation weren’t so wide open, I wouldn’t even have bothered listing him. I probably wouldn’t even roster him in a 12-team AL Central-Only league.

14. Tim Stauffer, San Diego Padres – The former top pick from 2003 coming back from a completely lost 2008 fared quite well across two minor league levels and in 73 major league innings. If he could get close to his minor league walk rate of 2.5 (in 569 IP), then he would be onto something. In the meantime, he will fight for a rotation spot with the likes of Clayton Richard and Jon Garland. NL-Only leagues should monitor his progress because the raw talent is there.

28 Year Olds

1. Armando Galarraga, Detroit Tigers – Took the league by storm in 2008 with some decent skills that led to a 3.73 ERA, but the 1.4 HR/9 rate portended trouble without vast improvement. The improvement didn’t come (1.5 in 2009) and the walk rate went up over 1.0 to 4.2 BB/9 and the result was an ugly 5.64 ERA in 144 innings. He’s probably the 7th or 8th option to start in Detroit, but that could change overnight when risks like Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Robertson and Dontrelle Willis stand between him and a rotation spot. I wouldn’t touch Galarraga without seeing significant improvement in the homerun rate.

2. Oliver Perez, New York Mets – He will get every opportunity in New York for no other reason than the fact that they simply don’t have any starting pitchers after Johan Santana. He allegedly looks great so far this spring, but the same thing is being said of Dontrelle Willis so take it with a pound of salt. The sexy strikeout rate teases and fantasy owners conjure up images of 2004 and 2007 when talking themselves into rostering Ollie, but you’re only hurting yourself if you bid much more than $1 on this partially scratched lottery ticket.

29 Year Olds

1. Brian Bannister, Kansas City Royals – Added a legitimate groundball rate to his limited arsenal that essentially starts and ends with his solid control. If he can hold or build on that trend, then he could be a worthwhile situational play for AL-Only leaguers. His strikeout rate is rising incrementally and another move up would put him past the coveted 6.0 rate. When combined with the already sharp control and developing groundball rate, Bannister’s skillset could be viable enough to produce a repeat of his rookie season when he went 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA. I wouldn’t rush out to invest in him, but I wouldn’t discard him out of hand, either.

2. Jeff Francis, Colorado Rockies –The forgotten former ace is returning from a torn labrum that cost him all of 2009, but he has been successful in the recent past with 414 innings of 4.19 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 across 2006 and 2007. He likely won’t come back and immediately perform like that, but it is the upside to keep in mind. Don’t go crazy based on his name as his last two years include a 5.01 ERA and a completely lost year.

30 Year Olds

1. Jon Garland, San Diego Padres – His skills remain virtually unchanged year-to-year leaving luck and run support to determine where in the 4.00s his ERA will be and how many wins his ho-hum performance will net. I wouldn’t be surprised if at least one owner in your league talked himself into Garland dipping below 4.00 ERA because of the PETCO pop and thus bumping his cost. That’s a situation I wouldn’t to be involved in. If I can get Garland for next to nothing, then I might give him a look and at least stream him at home.

2. Rich Hill, St. Louis Cardinals – Will he be Dave Duncan’s latest reclamation project? Duncan’s reputation is strong enough that it could raise Hill’s price to an unreasonable level and kill his sleeper value as a rebirth candidate. Keep in mind that Hill is just two years removed from nearly 200 innings of 3.92 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. The health and mental hurdles are holding Hill back right now, not talent. Watch closely this spring for reports on Hill’s control and WebMD report.

3. Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers – Returning to the majors for the first time since 2007, Lewis is an intriguing option after performing well in Japan and latching back on with his original team in Arlington. GM Jon Daniels has been quoted as saying that Lewis will be in the rotation and the MLB.com depth chart has him set up as the third starter behind Scott Feldman and Rich Harden. He has a live arm and as with other Texas pitchers I’ve mentioned, he gets a little boost from being under the tutelage of pitching coach Mike Maddux. He’s drawing some attention as a very deep sleeper right now so he will be worth monitoring during spring for no other reason than to make sure he holds the rotation spot Daniels said he is in line to get.

4. Carlos Silva, Chicago Cubs – No. Just no. Even moving to the National League won’t do much for Silva. In his last three full seasons (2006-2008), he has walked just 1.7 batters per nine which is literally the only redeeming quality for Silva.

31 Year Olds

1. Chris Capuano, Milwaukee Brewers – Capuano hasn’t thrown a pitch in two full years thanks to two Tommy John surgeries which instantly makes him little more than a flier regardless of how good he looks this spring. He has displayed solid career skills with 7.4 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 712 innings. He is someone to keep an eye on in deep NL-Only leagues, but investing more than a dollar at this point would be an unnecessary risk.

2. Jeremy Guthrie, Baltimore Orioles – The jump in ERA from 2008 to 2009 is hardly surprising considering how tenuous his skills were when he managed back-to-back sub-3.70 ERA seasons (6.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9). He managed to top 2.0 in K/BB, but the K rate was falling while the BB rate was rising and in 2009 things came to a head with a 5.0 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a grotesque 1.6 HR/9. This is not a profile I would buy into.

3. Todd Wellemeyer, San Francisco Giants – Another notch on Dave Duncan’s reclamation belt, Wellemeyer had a brilliant season (by his standards) in 2008, though many didn’t believe he could repeat the magic in 2009 because the skills profile wasn’t that great and home runs have always been a problem for him. The naysayers were proven right as Wellemeyer’s strikeouts fell and his walks went back up while the problematic home runs rose, too. Wellemeyer is no longer with Duncan out in San Francisco and he will have to battle uber-prospect Madison Bumgarner for a spot in the rotation. If he wins the spot, Wellemeyer might be worth spot starting here & there depending on matchup and venue.

35 Year Olds

1. Braden Looper, Free Agent – He hasn’t struck out more than five batters per nine innings since 2004 while his BB/9 rate has been below 2.5 just once in that same span. He somehow managed to go 14-7 last year, but that’s merely Exhibt 4,938,247 that a W-L record doesn’t tell you how well a pitcher has pitched in a given season. He is currently teamless because of a high asking price and even if he does find a team this spring, it is unlikely he will start the season with a rotation spot. Of course what we find valuable in fantasy baseball doesn’t always match what teams value in real life. Looper has averaged 190 the last three seasons and though he’s posted a below league average ERA+ (89), someone will find value in that reliability.

2. Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers – A poor man’s version of Looper gives you an idea of just how bad Suppan is in fantasy baseball terms. However, his inning-eating track record is lengthy dating back to 1999, but he hasn’t posted a 2.0+ K/BB since 2003 and it was just 2.2. Prior to that, he hadn’t broken the mark since 1998. In other words, Suppan is not someone you want to roster in 2010.

37 Year Olds

1. Bartolo Colon, Free Agent – He hasn’t been worth much since he stole the 2005 Cy Young award. His 21 wins “earned” him the award. His subsequent suckiness and inability to stay healthy is probably karma for the thievery.

38 Year Olds

1. Pedro Martinez, Free Agent – Came back for 45 innings last year and showed some solid skills with a 4.6 K/BB ratio, but 1.4 HR/9 limited his overall success. Still, he went 5-1 with a 3.63. Health and how many innings he can reasonably go will be the major hurdles for Pedro in 2010. He is rumored to be discussing a return to the Phillies and the 5th spot is a bit wide open with no clear option to fill the role. I wouldn’t bet on more than 100 innings from him, but if he lands with a spot where he can win a rotation role, I’d drop a few dollars on him.

39 Year Olds

1. Miguel Batista, Washington Nationals – With little set in the backend of their rotation, Batista has a legitimate shot to win a role with the Nats this year. His skills plummeted last year with a sub-1.00 K/BB ratio and barring a dramatic improvement in his 6.2 BB/9, you will want nothing to do with him in 2010.

43 Year Olds

1. Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox – The knuckleballer continues to get it done year in and year out despite pushing his mid-40s at this point. Injuries cut short his season last year, but he’s apparently ready and expecting to be a part of the rotation out of the gate. He will have to fend off youngster Clay Buchholz, but it’s hard to argue with nine straight seasons of at least league average ERA+, including seven above average. He’s a million years old and he’s not going to strikeout a ton of batters, but you could do worse than Wakefield for your last rotation spot in an AL-Only league.

Continuing the monster starting pitcher list…

Part 1
Part 2

Echelon 5, Part II – A Mixed Bag

This group, at 26 and above, has used up their prospect status on the low end while the older guys are retreads looking to recapture magic or make good on promise they once had. There are 30 guys in this group and only a few will have legitimate fantasy value this year. If your rotation is populated with too many guys from this list, you are likely in the throes of a difficult season.

26 Year Olds

1. Mitchell Boggs, St. Louis Cardinals (MLB) – Displayed awful control in 58 innings last season (5.1 BB/9), but still managed a 4.19 ERA somehow. He’s a 6.5-7.0 K/9 pitcher and with Dave Duncan on his side, he could become a useful arm for deeper NL-Only leagues. He bears watching.

2. Billy Buckner, Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) – His skills should’ve netted him the 4.19 ERA Boggs had, but he was unlucky and suffered a 6.40 ERA/1.59 WHIP. Like many youngsters, he needs to refine his control in order to be consistent start to start.

3. Thomas Diamond, Chicago Cubs (AAA) – Has a live arm, but absolutely not control whatsoever. He has a 10.1 K/9 in 435 minor league innings, but has also walked 5.0 batters per nine which just won’t cut it. Twice a top 75 prospect back in 2005 and 2006, but hasn’t fulfilled that promise to date.

4. Dana Eveland, Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) – Been around forever having spent parts of the last five seasons in the majors, but his only real success was 2008. Control has been an issue from the jump, but a fluctuating strikeout rate is sapping any discernible value now, too. And he’s fat.

5. Doug Fister, Seattle Mariners (MLB) – A poor man’s Nick Blackburn right now who still allows too many home runs. Considering that a Blackburn owner is poor, owning Fister seems like a terrible idea.

6. Scott Olsen, Washington Nationals (MLB) – Remember when he was worth a look? He’s still young enough to be viable if he gets back to his 2006 days of 8.3 K/9 which he had over 181 innings.

7. Mitch Talbot, Cleveland Indians (MLB) – Doesn’t have the pedigree of his former teammates in Tampa Bay, but now has a legitimate opportunity to get into the rotation. His 2.8 K/BB ratio in 905 minor league innings suggests he can be an asset. Monitor him this spring.

27 Year Olds

1. Jeremy Bonderman, Detroit Tigers (MLB) – His strikeout rate has been in a free fall since 2006, but he’s also pitched just 82 innings in the last two years. He was once a fantasy favorite, but injuries have derailed his ascension. Worth tracking through the spring and April.

2. Jeff Karstens, Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) – He doesn’t have nearly enough control (3.8 BB/9 in 2009) to strikeout so few batters (4.3 K/9). A mid 4.00s ERA is probably his ceiling at this point.

3. J.D. Martin, Washington Nationals (MLB) – Another low strikeout control artist who has a small margin for error making his a profile I’m not terribly fond of. He was excellent at limiting home runs in the minors with 0.7 HR/9 in 744 minor league innings.

4. Joe Martinez, San Francisco Giants (MLB) – Displayed almost a 4.0 K/BB rate in 592 minor league innings, but his debut last year was cut short by a ball to the head. Would be an injury replacement at best.

5. Fernando Nieve, New York Mets (MLB) – Had absolutely no business posting a 2.95 ERA with 5.6 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 37 innings. The rotation is so wide open in New York that he could get a chance, but that doesn’t mean he deserves one on your roster.

6. Carlos Torres, Chicago White Sox (MLB) – He’s got some pretty good stuff, but no one pitch is overwhelming despite the lofty strikeout numbers in the minors. Could nab the fifth spot.

7. Jason Vargas, Seattle Mariners (MLB) – Low strikeouts, solid control, too many homeruns… it’s become a mantra for the 26+ group so far.

28 Year Olds

1. Daniel Cabrera, Chicago White Sox (MLB) – Even when he failed back in the day, he at least provided strikeouts. The past two seasons has seen his K/9 rate drop below five rendering him entirely useless. Draft him if you hate winning.

2. Dustin Nippert, Texas Rangers (MLB) – Displayed some solid skills in 70 innings of work last year shaving nearly a full walk off of his BB/9 from 2008. Likely a bullpen option at least in the short term.

3. Dontrelle Willis, Detroit Tigers (MLB) – Once an elite level pitcher who has spiraled into the abyss of suckiness. A mental block has impeded him as much as anything physically at this point. His name will keep him on the radar for at least one more year.

29 Year Olds

1. Sergio Mitre, New York Yankees (MLB) – Mostly awful in 2009 as little more than a 5-inning starter. Injury would be his only avenue back into the rotation.

30 Year Olds

1. Lenny DiNardo, Oakland A’s (MLB) – Kick yourself in the DiNardo if you draft him.

2. Eric Stults, Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) – Has shown glimpses at the major league level, but overall he’s far too erratic to be trusted on any level. He was good for 39 innings in 2008 and that may end up as his career year.

32 Year Olds

1. Tim Redding, Colorado Rockies (MLB) – He was awful in favorable parks, what do you expect the carnage to be like in Coors?

2. Brian Tallet, Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) – Had three straight solid seasons leading up to ’09, but all were tiny samples between 54 and 62 innings. He was exposed in 161 innings last year. Tread very lightly.

3. Josh Towers, Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) – Has pitched all of five major league innings the past two years. A control artist wannabe at his best, he could be a spot start option if he gets hot a la 2005.

34 Year Olds

1. Rodrigo Lopez, Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) – He really wasn’t that bad in July last year, but that’s a one month sample. His best seasons are six and eight years ago, respectively.

35 Year Olds

1. Freddy Garcia, Chicago White Sox (MLB) – Showed some decent stuff in 56 innings with the White Sox last year and enters 2010 with a chance at the last spot in the rotation. You could do worse for a $1 at the very end of an AL Only.

2. Livan Hernandez, Free Agent (MLB) – No. Just, no. He will probably get a chance somewhere, though so I listed him.

3. Russ Ortiz, Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) – If he gets a real shot at the fifth spot, it’ll be embarrassing for LA.

36 Year Olds

1. Ramon Ortiz, Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB) – If he gets a real shot at the fifth spot, it’ll be embarrassing for LA.

Continuing my mega-list of starting pitchers for 2010…

Echelon 5 – Lottery Tickets

For this grouping, players will be broken up by age instead of ranked. After all, what does it really mean if I rate Junichi Tazawa over Tanner Scheppers or vice versa? It doesn’t. Both are deep AL-Only options in dynasty leagues or leagues with a “keepable” minor league roster and hopefully my 1-2 sentence insight will help your decision one way or another. This echelon is more of an informational session than anything else bringing names to light who you may need to know about later in the season. There are 66 guys in this echelon and I see them in two separate sets: 25 and under and 26 and over. Anyone in the latter has probably had a shot in the majors, but has enough warts on him to merit this low of ranking. At the same time, they have talent that could be refined and parlayed into a modicum of success in the right scenario. The former is a group that likely hasn’t reached the bigs for any significant time as of yet and they need a lot more polish before becoming viable options for your starting roster. As I mentioned earlier, they are for the hardest of hardcore players with very deep rosters.

I’ll break it into two parts starting with the 25 and under set.

19 Year Olds

1. Tyler Matzek, Colorado Rockies (no pro ball) – Excellent high school lefty with a plus fastball and two solid breaking pitches. An unpolished changeup will be what he needs to work on to get himself to the majors. He projects as a #1 right now, but there’s no legitimate data to suggest otherwise. A late pick even in minor league drafts unless you are interested in waiting.

2. Martin Perez, Texas Rangers (AA) – Drawing comparisons to Pedro because of his slight stature and excellent stuff. Enjoyed a breakout in the Sally League, but came back down to earth a bit in a tiny AA sample. He cracked Baseball America’s Top 100 last year before the breakout so he’s likely no fluke, but he’s still at least a full year away, perhaps even a year and a half.

20 Year Olds

1. Jenrry Mejia, New York Mets (AA) – Hopefully the Mets don’t let their major league pitching deficiencies dictate how quickly they move Mejia. He’s got an amazing fastball, but little else right now which could relegate him to the bullpen as he moves forward. Control and a bankable second pitch should be his areas of focus in 2010.

2. Mike Montgomery, Kansas City Royals (A+) – Reinforcements for Zack Greinke are on the way and Montgomery is part of the cavalry. He has had three stops over the past two seasons and managed an ERA of 2.25 or better each time. His changeup is already very strong which could fast-track his route to the majors if his fastball improves across AA and AAA.

21 Year Olds

1. Tim Alderson, Pittsburgh Pirates (AA) – His K/9 dropped by nearly two to below 6.0 in concert with a significant dip in velocity. The results, a 3.89 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, were still passable, but there is cause for concern. The 2010 season is a huge one for Alderson and will give insight into whether he’s a top half of the rotation starter or back-end innings eater type.

2. Phillippe Aumont, Philadelphia Phillies (AA) – A solid two-pitch guy with a huge arm capable of consistent high 90s fastballs, but also lacks the control that usually comes with this profile. This could mean a future in the bullpen, but likely as a closer if he maintains the kind of dominance he’s shown thus far. The progression of his changeup (which is virtually unusable at this point) will determine his future path.

3. Casey Crosby, Detroit Tigers (A-) – An excellent return from TJ surgery put him on the prospect map in 2009. Sparkling K/9 (10.1) overshadowed a high 4.1 BB/9. Fastball-changeup combo already effective, but needs to refine his breaking stuff to reach his full top of the rotation potential.

4. Deolis Guerra, Minnesota Twins (AA) – Results (4.89 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) overshadowed a decent seasons skills-wise, especially with his control (2.5 BB/9). He will likely be given every opportunity to succeed with the Twins just so they don’t come away completely empty-handed from the Johan Santana trade. He’s fantasy’s version of a draft-&-follow because it could take awhile.

5. Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays (A-) – Yes, the Rays have even MORE excellent pitching on the way. Moore destroyed the SALLY league to the tune of 12.9 K/9 in 123 innings which helped cover up an ugly 5.1 BB/9. Already owns a 4-pitch arsenal, but needs to become a smarter pitcher as he moves through the system or he will burnout.

6. Jarrod Parker, Arizona Diamondbacks (AA) – Out for 2010 with TJ surgery, but still worth keeping on the radar if you can stash him at a next-to-nothing cost. He’s obviously a long-term investment, but should be worth the wait.

7. Trevor Reckling, Los Angeles Angels (AA) – May be at least part of the reason the Angels were OK with letting John Lackey move on as he projects to be a future top of the rotation starter. Already possesses an above average changeup and slider, command of his decent fastball is the missing ingredient.

22 Year Olds

1. Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles (A+) – Yes, they have even more pitching on the horizon in addition to the group of excellent arms on the cusp for 2010. Britton’s stuff isn’t that great, but he induces throngs of groundballs and has enough to maintain a passable 6.0-6.5 K/9 rate as he advances through the system.

2. Brandon Erbe, Baltimore Orioles (AA) – Better pure stuff than Britton, but lacks a third pitch right now which combined with the influx of starting pitching talent in Baltimore could lead him down a path towards future closer. Even moving his changeup from well below average to average could make him a mid-level starter.

3. Christian Friedrich, Colorado Rockies (A+) – He’s got three explosive pitches already, but the missing piece is a more consistent changeup. He has at least added it to his repertoire, but refinement of it will determine how quickly he can get to Denver. Of course even without it being a reliable pitch, it will be hard to keep him down too long if he continues to strike out 12.0 batters per nine as he has in his first 168 innings of pro ball.

4. Jeremy Jeffress, Milwaukee Brewers (AA) – Possesses a top speed fastball, but often fails to command it resulting in some ugly BB/9 numbers. He’s going to be serving his second suspension, this time a 100-gamer, essentially costing him the 2010 season. He’s very raw and at least a full year away, tread lightly.

5. Kasey Kiker, Texas Rangers (AA) – His changeup is the most effective pitch in his arsenal which includes a low 90s fastball, too. His K/9 held strong in the jump to AA, but control nearly doubled to 4.7. How that control develops at AAA will determine Kiker’s progression towards Arlington.

6. Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds (AFL) – I saw a lot of polish for a 22-year old in his first pro ball experience in Arizona this past fall. I really like him, but instead of trying to express that in 2-3 sentences, I’ll recommend the Base Heads scouting report of Leake done by Paul Bourdett.

7. Sean O’Sullivan, Los Angeles Angels (MLB) – Performed about as well as you’d expect for a low strikeout/low walk guy. Home runs killed him (2.1 HR/9), or else he might have been able to keep his ERA closer to 5.00 than 6.00. Profiles as a Nick Blackburn type as a ceiling.

8. Jordan Walden, Los Angeles Angels (AA) – Basically your standard big fastball pitcher who needs work just about everywhere else. Has a decent secondary pitch with the slider, but the changeup needs quite a bit more polish and control is too erratic even for someone striking out a batter per inning. A worthy long-term investment.

23 Year Olds

1. Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians (MLB) – Excellent fastball/changeup combo projects as top of the rotation stuff, but struggles to consistently display his best work. Peripherals portend at least a #3 starter if not a #2 or ace, but the mental game stands in front of him and that level right now.

2. Andrew Cashner, Chicago Cubs (AA) – Elite fastball and decent breaking pitch haven’t produced the kind of strikeout results you’d expect just yet. Relieved in college so the adjustment could be messing with him a la Joba Chamberlain. Might end up back in the ‘pen in the long run.

3. Aaron Crow, Kansas City Royals (AFL) – Has a beautiful fastball to build his arsenal around which should all but guarantee him at least a future in the bullpen if his changeup doesn’t continue to develop throughout the minors. Tough to project with no pro work under his belt besides the AFL, but he seems to be legitimate.

4. Daniel Gutierrez, Texas Rangers (AA) – Like many others on this list, the development (or lack thereof) of his changeup will determine his future in the majors between the rotation and the bullpen. You have to like that he’s being developed in the Texas system which has established itself as one of the league’s best.

5. Dan Hudson, Chicago White Sox (MLB) – Zoomed through five levels in 2009 including a 19 inning stint in the majors. May seem rushed, but he acquitted himself well at every stop before the majors never falling below 9.0 K/9 or topping 3.4 BB/9. After a half season of polish at AAA, Hudson’s 4-pitch repertoire could be ready to stick in bigs permanently.

6. Shairon Martis, Washington Nationals (MLB) – He wasn’t terribly special in the minor leagues so his lackluster major league performance shouldn’t really surprise anyone, either. If you’re relying on him for anything, you’ve already lost your league.

7. Tanner Scheppers, Texas Rangers (AFL) – His brilliant fastball was on display in Arizona this fall, but there is uncertainty around his future as a starter since he lacks a legitimate changeup at this point. Worthy of investment while role is sorted out, though.

24 Year Olds

1. Eric Hurley, Texas Rangers (AAA) – Torn rotator cuff cost him the 2009 season and he’d had a rough 2008 before that, however he’s got enough velocity and control to not give up on just yet. Definitely a wait-&-see guy given the injury, though.

2. Chuck Lofgren, Milwaukee Brewers (AAA) – Twice a top 75 prospect, Lofgren has been dismal the past two seasons leading to his departure from Cleveland via the Rule 5 draft. He has dropped a strikeout per nine in each of his last three stops bottoming out at 5.7 last year. Has enough control to fill back end spot in the rotation.

3. Brad Mills, Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) – Nothing overpowering within his arsenal, but that hasn’t kept him from keeping a decent K/9 throughout each stop along the way to the majors. The control has gotten a tick worse along the way, too which would be a recipe for disaster in the majors.

4. Esmil Rogers, Colorado Rockies (MLB) – Everything about him right now suggests a future in the bullpen: no discernible third pitch, significant fatigue as game wears on and shaky control. Improvements to a very weak changeup could make him fourth starter material.

5. Junichi Tazawa, Boston Red Sox (MLB) – Moved from AA to the majors last year, but his peripherals were awful at AAA and MLB levels albeit in tiny samples. Lacks a dominating out pitch, but he is crafty enough to stick in the rotation if he holds 85% of his 8.1 K/9 from AA.

25 Year Olds

1. Sam LeCure, Cincinnati Reds (AAA) – Solid fastball, but not a lot else. He is becoming a pitcher and using what he does have to the best of his ability. That ability might cap out as a back of the rotation starter, though.

2. Brad Lincoln, Pittsburgh Pirates (AAA) – A good fastball/curveball combo afforded him a solid if unspectacular 2009 season, but the development of his changeup will determine his future at the next level. It’s a popular refrain, but it’s accurate, too.

3. Adam Miller, Cleveland Indians (AAA) – He just can’t stay healthy. He’s spent his last three years at AAA, totaling 99 innings and he missed all of 2009. Too big of a risk to invest in right now.

4. Kevin Mulvey, Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB) – A pitch-to-contact type who will likely struggle to strikeout 6.0+ batters per nine at the big league level, but could still be effective by utilizing his defense. A back end starter at best.

5. Craig Stammen, Washington Nationals (MLB) – Doesn’t walk anybody, but doesn’t strike anybody out, either. He’s the kind of guy who could have 4-5 good starts before giving up 8 ER in 2.1 IP. Very thin margin for error with this skillset.

6. Donnie Veal, Pittsburgh Pirates (MLB) – Big power arm, but lacks any control whatsoever. It doesn’t hurt the Pirates to try the Veal, but he’s still pretty raw (pun-intended).

I haven’t posted for three weeks, but it hasn’t been without good reason. I have been working on my favorite piece of the winter, the Starting Pitcher Echelons. It’s my third year doing this and this year’s is the biggest yet. Last year, I went 154 deep and in 2008 there were 112. This year, I have 263 names. I’d be surprised if I was missing anybody of consequence but I will rely on you the reader to let me know if there are glaring omissions.

There are five distinct echelons this year and it is meant to emulate a starting rotation. The 1s are your aces that will be taken early and cost the most money in most leagues. They have reliable track records and excel across the board. Meanwhile the 2s are guys I really like and their best-case-scenario season would be ace-level. There is usually just one small thing missing from their equation that keeps them out of the top echelon, but you can reasonably anchor your staff with these guys if you choose to wait on pitching. The 3s are a mix of young guys on the rise still putting it all together and crafty veterans capable of eating a boatload of innings without destroying your team. All of them have enough discernible skill to put up a very good season, but it would definitely standout either because they are returning from injury, have yet to do at the big leagues or haven’t done in several seasons. The 4s are essentially 3s with bigger, more glaring questions surrounding them. They are likely further away from the majors if they are youngsters. The veterans found within the 4s have some skill, but lack any clear path into the rotation or simply have a bigger chance at hurting your team should they get several starts. And the last echelon is the 5s which contains severely unpolished young arms who are likely a year or two away in most cases, but merit some consideration in dynasty leagues or leagues with minor league rosters and veterans who should be spot-started at best and should only be considered as stopgaps in disaster scenarios.

The 4s and 5s won’t have a whole lot written about them since their projected impact for 2010 is much lower by comparison to the 1s, 2s and 3s. For the 5s especially, I’ll probably stick to one sentence about them and move on. Some of the 4s who could be a factor later will get a little bit more detail included, but the meat of the analysis will be on the 2s and 3s. Even the 1s don’t need a ton of breakdown as we already know why they are there. Also this year I’ve included a special 6th echelon which is a 10-pack of 4s and 5s who will miss a significant amount of time in 2010 due to injury or who are returning from a major injury in 2009 and should be approached with the utmost amount of caution in terms of expectations. Let’s start with that group.

Supplemental Echelon “Six” – The Infirmary

1. Jesse Litsch (right elbow; July return), 24 years old, Toronto Blue Jays (echelon 4) – He enjoyed some success in 2007 and 2008 (combined 3.67 ERA in 287 IP) despite striking out just 4.7 batters per nine.

2. Edinson Volquez (Tommy John; late ’10 if at all), 26 years old, Cincinnati Reds (echelon 4) – If you have a reserve roster where you could get Volquez on the cheap and hold him over for 2011, he’s worth a look late just for the long-term investment. Could pitch 30-40 innings down the stretch, but who knows how valuable those would be?

3. Erik Bedard (left shoulder; August return), 30 years old, Seattle Mariners (echelon 4) – Same old story with Bedard. I heard a rumor that Rich Harden was quoted as saying Bedard is a candyass. Bedard could be a stretch run asset if he returns for the final two months, but I wouldn’t bend over backwards to land him, even in a league with a reserve roster.

4. Justin Duchscherer (back, right elbow, depression; Spring Training return), 32 years old, Oakland A’s (echelon 4) – Didn’t throw a single pitch in 2009 after a tremendous 2008 breakout. Like Bedard, Harden and the next guy on this list, he will ALWAYS carry significant risk no matter how well he pitches.

5. Kelvim Escobar (shoulder; Spring Training return), 34 years old, New York Mets (echelon 4) – I’m a huge fan of this guy but the simple fact is that he can’t be trusted. Word out of the Mets camp is that he could be used as a reliever, but I’m including him on the starting pitcher list because there’s a good enough chance he will get starts for that lame rotation sooner or later.

6. Ross Detwiler (hip; June return), 23 years old, Washington Nationals (echelon 5) – He has struck out nearly a batter per inning in 234 minor league innings, but managed just five per nine in 76 innings last year in 14 starts. Need to see some consistent performance upon return to even recommend a spot start duty.

7. Jordan Zimmerman (elbow; late ’10 if at all), 23 years old, Washington Nationals (echelon 5) – Like Volquez, Zimmerman is worth snapping up late if he can be reserved and kept inexpensively for 2011. I love his potential and would have had him possibly as high as echelon 2 if he were pitching this year. He and Stephen Strasburg will be a viable 1-2 for the Nationals for the coming years.

8. Josh Outman (Tommy John; late ’10), 25 years old, Oakland A’s (echelon 5) – The only reason Outman is echelon 5 is because I’m uncertain how much he can really offer upon his return in 2010. Plus by the time he returns, the Oakland rotation might be locked up so he might be relegated to relief work.

9. Dustin McGowan (shoulder; mid ’10), 27 years old, Toronto Blue Jays (echelon 5) – He didn’t throw a pitch last year and likely won’t throw one until midseason this year. Plus he’s really only had one above average season thus far. He’s displayed solid skills in his 354 major league innings (7.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9), but he’s complete wildcard with this much time off.

10. Shawn Hill (Tommy John; mid ’10), 28 years old, Toronto Blue Jays (echelon 5) – He’s another guy who always seems to be injured with one thing or another. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but holds enough control to manage a 2.0 K/BB rate. I liked him better in Washington and even better in San Diego. Even a healthy Hill could have some tough sledding in the AL Beast.