Baseball By Paul

Elijah Dukes Continues to Hit; Smacks Third Bomb
I don’t really know why the Washington Nationals have Elijah Dukes. Yes, he does have talent, quite a bit in fact and he is only 23 years old. But when you consider the tumult he had been through in 2007 season prior to winter trade that send him to DC, you have to wonder if he would (or will?) be worth the trouble for a team in need of stability as they try to rise from the ashes of the Montreal franchise. Nevertheless, it is hard to argue with Dukes’ production in his first full month since coming off of the disabled list. He has a .310/.403/.506 line 87 June at-bats including three home runs and 13 runs batted in. He is not afraid to take a walk either, which is very encouraging, especially for a 23-year old. It’s not hard to stand out in that lineup, but he’s been a very rare bright spot amongst a collection of hitters that makes the San Diego Padres look like Murderer’s Row.

Hawpe Unstoppable Since Returning from DL
Few players are outdoing Dukes in June, but Colorado’s Brad Hawpe is certainly one that is since he came back from injury on June 6th. A Baseball By Paul favorite, Hawpe is up to a June line of .328/.443/.707 after a 2-for-4 effort on Tuesday night. A monthly breakdown seems to suggest he might’ve needed that DL-stint a little sooner:

Either way, the time off seems to have served him well and he’s now back to being the immensely productive and equally underrated third banana of the 3H force in the Colorado lineup as Matt Holliday & Todd Helton steal the bulk of the headlines.

More updates tomorrow and I should finally have that long-promised piece on SPs up as well.

Carlos Gomez Ready to Run Again?
There were mixed feelings about Carlos Gomez, the Twins’ centerpiece in the Johan Santana trade, coming into the season. At 22, concerns centered around the fact that perhaps the Twins were rushing him just to show that the trade wasn’t a bad idea, but he made them look great with a fast start out of gate (no pun intended). Gomez was providing Jose Reyes-type speed with tons of early stolen bases, but then he just stopped running for some reason.

Despite a paltry .300 on-base percentage, Gomez racked up 16 stolen bases in the first month and a half of the season. The .269 average was hardly Earth-shattering, but it kept him from Michael Bourn-like liability (.224 average/24 SBs) in every category but stolen bases. Prior to last night’s stolen base, Gomez had a disgusting 1-for-7 success rate in almost a month’s time. The average was strong and he included some unexpected bombs, but the lack of stolen bases has been a huge disappointment after that start. On the whole, he is still on pace for 44 stolen bases and with the May power surge, 12 home runs as well. Owners of his services would undoubtedly consider 2008 a smashing success if he were able to achieve those numbers by season’s end.

Pitching Dominates the League Wednesday Night
Perhaps it was just because several of these performances found their way onto my fantasy teams, but I don’t remember the last night that this many pitchers were on their game. There were 17 really strong games thrown on Wednesday and it’s not like all of the #1s were going; only five of the gems were out of bona fide aces.

Three complete games and three others going eight innings. All told there were nearly 14 games of 1.30 ERA ball (124.3 IP divided by nine). Reliever turned starter Braden Looper turned in the game of the night with a complete game shutout as Hernandez, Lincecum and Jimenez joined him by holding their opponents to no runs. Cole Hamels paced the crew with 13 strikeouts and Ryan Dempster (!) was close behind 11 of his own. No one posted worse than a 3.00 ERA meaning any combination of this group yielded a very impressive evening for your fantasy team.

A Painful Season Continues…
The disabling of Victor Martinez, Albert Pujols and Alfonso Soriano continued the 2008 ravaging of fantasy baseball teams. There was a message board this morning about the overwhelming rash of key players missed for periods of time due to injury this season and it was jaw-dropping to see.

I wouldn’t even begin to pretend to have an answer as to what is going on or even speculate just to feel like there is a specific reason. What I do know is that having a couple of these players on a roster can decimate a team’s chances. Seeing 14 starting pitchers on the list offers just one more (of the hundreds) reason not to invest heavily in “surefire” aces. Injuries happen, but this seems more like a season-end list of them as opposed to one we’d see nearly two and a half months into the season.

Verlander Strong in No-Decision Against Twins
The Detroit Tigers bullpen failed Justin Verlander on Sunday afternoon when Francisco Cruceta gave up a grand slam to Jason Kubel in a 6-1 Twins victory. The silver lining for Detroit was that their ace went seven strong innings and did everything he could to set them up for a win, something he hasn’t done much of this year. His pitch count was getting high, but JV was still bringing the goods as his fastball was reaching mid-to-upper 90s regularly in the 6th & 7th innings. This was third in a trio of quality starts from Verlander dating back to May 14th. Control was a bit of an issue at times today with 4 walks, but the Tigers are happy to have their anchor back on track.

Verlander was absolutely brutal in April and continued to struggle with his first two outings in May. Both the team and Verlander himself insisted that there was no underlying injuries that were causing the poor performance. Many pundits claimed that his velocity was down, but that just seems to be something trotted out anytime a pitcher with past success falls on hard times for an extended period. I watch every single Tigers game on MLB.tv or MLB Extra Innings and I didn’t see a noticeable decline in his velocity. Instead, he was often getting behind hitters and they were making him pay. That and he just seemed to hit a wall in the 5th or 6th inning of every start. In fact, his OPS allowed chart tells that story: 1st-3rd innings is .696, 4th through 6th innings is .730 and the 7th-9th innings is 1.248. If you bought low or stayed the course with Verlander, you’re now reaping the benefits of that savvy and there is plenty to more to come as the season wears on.

Holliday & Hawpe Injuries Leave Rockies Punchless
The injury bug has bitten the 2008 Colorado Rockies. Again and again and again! When outfielder Brad Hawpe hit the disabled list, it wasn’t a crushing blow because of how poorly he’s been performing this year and perhaps the time off would do him some good. But when they had to place Matt Holliday on the DL to join both Hawpe and Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies fans were left asking, “Could anything else go wrong?!?!” Unfortunately the answer is yes as Garret Atkins sat out the entire weekend with a stiff neck and might join his superstar friends on the DL. And don’t forget that their leader in slugging percentage, Clint Barmes, hit the DL on Saturday. The Rockies will now feature a Minnesota Twins-esque lineup with Scott Podsednik, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs and Willy Taveras manning the outfield. If Atkins does miss extended time, Chris Iannetta and Todd Helton become their premier hitters. In Minnesota, the Twins look to a catcher and first baseman when they need a key RBI, too.

That’s a lot of bonafide talent to lose at one time. But showing the 2007 production isn’t a complete picture because it leaves out Barmes’ strong performance thus far in 2008 and Tulowitzki’s horrid work before giving way to Barmes once he hit the DL several weeks ago. For those curious, the quintet has put together a .289/.353/.470 line 25 HRs-104 RBI-101 R in 764 combined ABs through Sunday. And just to make things more exciting, ace starter Jeff Francis holds a 6.18 ERA through his first 10 starts of the season. It wasn’t a stretch to say the Rockies wouldn’t make the playoffs with a complete team in 2008, now it’s more unlikely than a Marlins-Rays World Series.

One final note: Dusty Baker is an idiot. Oh wait, I said that yesterday. Chances I say it again tomorrow? Vegas has it opening at 1:3 despite the Cincinnati off-day.

Phenom Upton Struggling at the Plate
The Arizona Diamondbacks came out of the gates absolutely on fire this season and it was due in large part to the play of Justin Upton. Upton was destroying the ball leading to five home runs and 15 runs batted in. The struggles from his 2007 cup of coffee was seen merely as growing pains, Upton had arrived. Whoops. I think that’s why they say it’s a marathon not a sprint. Upton has been a disaster in May hitting just .224. He has struck out in 45% of his at-bats and has just one home run.

The silver lining to an awful May is that Upton has garnered 17 walks good enough for a .388 on-base percentage. From the available data, it looks like he is simply waiting too long in hopes of getting his pitch. On 3-2 counts, he has 14 walks and 12 strike outs. He is hitting just .042 in that situation as well. When he is first pitch swinging, he is hitting .500 and a strong .474 on 1-0 & 1-1 counts combined. It stands to reason that he needs to once again be aggressive in order to get out of his slump.

Duchscherer Chucks Eight Scoreless, Nets 4th Win
The 2007 season was a lost one for Oakland A’s pitcher Justin Duchscherer. Injuries shut him down after just 16.3 innings work. Prior to that, he was a bullpen ace for the A’s in three straight seasons. From 2004-2006, Duchscherer worked 237.7 innings with a 2.80 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He struck out 7.4 batters per nine with a 3.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. During this past offseason, the A’s decided that Duchscherer would be a bigger asset to them in their rotation.

After all, they had jettisoned their ace (yet again) to Arizona for a cornucopia of pieces and there was a ton of uncertainty after Joe Blanton and oft-injured Rich Harden. Duchscherer threw a 5-inning pearl on April 4th against the Cleveland Indians but then missed the next three weeks before throwing another strong 5 innings against the Seattle Mariners on April 26th.

Duchscherer improved to 4-3 and dropped his WHIP below 1.00 with eight shutout, one-hit innings against the Boston Red Sox tonight. It’s incredible to think that a pitcher with a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP would be a 4th starter. Of course, that’s merely his position in the rotation—The Duke has clearly been one of the best A’s pitchers. As the season wears on, it’ll be interesting to see how many quality innings the A’s can get out of an arm used to going about 80 innings per season. With six quality starters (Blanton, Harden, Duke, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith and Chad Gaudin), the A’s will have the flexibility to ensure they maximize their rotation. If you assumed that Duchscherer was good for 160 innings this season, he’d have 119 left in the tank. Giving him an average of 6 per would leave him with 19 more starts. Now that is hardly scientific. Fact is, that no matter how much I love The Duke (I own him in every league I can), I know that he isn’t likely to reach the 100s in innings due simply to fatigue as opposed to performance. For now, I’ll enjoy the ride.

Votto Blasts 10th; Drives in 4 More
We all know that Cincinnati Reds manager Dusty Baker isn’t particularly bright. He runs arms ragged (usually for no reason) and makes awful personnel decisions. Take for example the fact that rookie phenom Joey Votto started just 20-of-29 games for the Reds in April. After all, you have to get Scott Hatteberg in the lineup. I don’t mean to hate on Hatteberg. He has a tremendous eye with a career .362 on-base percentage and 59 more walks than strikeouts (562 to 503), but 12-home run power out of first base is unacceptable. Votto a hit a quarter of that total in one game earlier this month and with his 10th home run of the season tonight in San Diego, he is establishing himself as a full-time major league ballplayer.

Not only does Votto the typical run-production skills needed at corner infield, but with 40 stolen bases in his past two seasons down in the minors he has shown that he can run a bit if needed. That speed is more likely to show up in 1st-to-3rd movement and hustling out an infield single here and there than it is in the stolen base column. He could threaten double-digit totals, but I’d be surprised to see him match that 20 stolen base average from 2006-2007. Generally, a rookie with a line like Votto’s would be setting himself up for Rookie of the Year contention, but the National League has some stiff competition for that hardware this season and it comes from the same team. Chicago Cubs catcher Geovany Soto and Japanese import Kosuke Fukudome are both bonafide contenders for the award, with Soto the early leader. Award winner or not, Votto has been great thus far and could possibly set a career-high in home runs this season (22 in both 2006 and 2007 with Chattanooga & Louisville, respectively).

Sheffield Tops Mendoza Line; Hits 3rd HR
Gary Sheffield has been pretty awful this season as he topped .200 for the first time since May 13th. He hit his third home in a 1-for-5 effort on Friday night. Despite his colossal struggles (his average has been over .222 one time this season: .286 on 4.8.08), he is still seeing the ball very well as evidenced by his .336 OBP.
Usually that wouldn’t be an OBP to get excited about, but a 134-point difference between batting average and on-base percentage is strong. I am a huge believer in sample sizes so I fully realize how little three games means, but it isn’t completely useless when judging a potential forthcoming surge. Sheffield represents a decent buy-low candidate at this point. He is likely to come very close to last year’s totals though probably fewer than the 22 steals he had in 2007. If he does match 2007 in the run production categories, he is set to accumulate 22 home runs, 66 RBIs and 91 runs scored while hitting for a .286 batting average. He is currently on pace for 10 stolen bases and I think he hits that or maybe 2-3 more.

Uggla on Pace for 51 HRs
Florida Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla is absolutely dialed in. With a 2-for-4 effort on Friday that included his 15th home run, he is now hitting a white-hot .414 with 11 HRs and 22 RBIs in May. Uggla’s sophomore season delivered more power than his great debut, but a 37-point drop in batting average cut deeply into his value.

This pace will slow considerably and right now might be the prime time to try and sell Uggla for maximum value. His strikeout rate is up yet again, currently creeping on 30% and players simply can’t perform at the highest levels in the game when they’re missing the ball this much. See also: Reynolds, Mark.

In the 19 games that Reynolds reeled off his 7 home runs, he struck out 32% of the time. Starry-eyed owners started discussing his 40-HR potential and dreaming about him as a low-priced keeper for years to come. Since the 7th HR, Reynolds is hitting .182 (14-for-77) and striking out 40% of the time. Uggla is unlikely to have such a precipitous drop because he has proven he can succeed with a high strikeout rate, but it’s going to be much closer to the .270-30-90 projections (give or take) than his 51-HR pace. If a legitimate selling opportunity exists in your league, you owe it to your team’s success to entertain it.

Cano’s Buy-Low Opportunity Slipping Away
Speaking of streaking second basemen, Robinson Cano is rebounding nicely from a terrible April. He is hitting .313 and has matched or exceeded his April totals in HR, RBI, SB and R in 39 fewer at-bats. A look at the peripheral numbers identified Cano as a remarkably buy-low opportunity during April and even for the opening days of May. A 7-game hitting streak from May 4th to 12th brought him to the cusp of the Mendoza Line. A 4-for-4 effort on May 14th brought the average to .205 and with another 4-for-4 game today, he is up .232 and likely off the block in most leagues.

If for some reason the owner of Cano will trade him at a discounted rate, you should still pounce. Cano is a bona fide .300 hitter and should end the season with 18-20 home runs, as well. At 25 years old, he has yet to his “prime”, but he already has three very productive season under his belt. If you have a hole 2B, don’t be afraid to pay regular price for his services, but definitely lean on his .232 average and sub-.300 on-base percentage to get his owner to drop the price.