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Tuesday: 02.23.2010

2010 Echelons of Starting Pitching: Part 1

I haven’t posted for three weeks, but it hasn’t been without good reason. I have been working on my favorite piece of the winter, the Starting Pitcher Echelons. It’s my third year doing this and this year’s is the biggest yet. Last year, I went 154 deep and in 2008 there were 112. This year, I have 263 names. I’d be surprised if I was missing anybody of consequence but I will rely on you the reader to let me know if there are glaring omissions.

There are five distinct echelons this year and it is meant to emulate a starting rotation. The 1s are your aces that will be taken early and cost the most money in most leagues. They have reliable track records and excel across the board. Meanwhile the 2s are guys I really like and their best-case-scenario season would be ace-level. There is usually just one small thing missing from their equation that keeps them out of the top echelon, but you can reasonably anchor your staff with these guys if you choose to wait on pitching. The 3s are a mix of young guys on the rise still putting it all together and crafty veterans capable of eating a boatload of innings without destroying your team. All of them have enough discernible skill to put up a very good season, but it would definitely standout either because they are returning from injury, have yet to do at the big leagues or haven’t done in several seasons. The 4s are essentially 3s with bigger, more glaring questions surrounding them. They are likely further away from the majors if they are youngsters. The veterans found within the 4s have some skill, but lack any clear path into the rotation or simply have a bigger chance at hurting your team should they get several starts. And the last echelon is the 5s which contains severely unpolished young arms who are likely a year or two away in most cases, but merit some consideration in dynasty leagues or leagues with minor league rosters and veterans who should be spot-started at best and should only be considered as stopgaps in disaster scenarios.

The 4s and 5s won’t have a whole lot written about them since their projected impact for 2010 is much lower by comparison to the 1s, 2s and 3s. For the 5s especially, I’ll probably stick to one sentence about them and move on. Some of the 4s who could be a factor later will get a little bit more detail included, but the meat of the analysis will be on the 2s and 3s. Even the 1s don’t need a ton of breakdown as we already know why they are there. Also this year I’ve included a special 6th echelon which is a 10-pack of 4s and 5s who will miss a significant amount of time in 2010 due to injury or who are returning from a major injury in 2009 and should be approached with the utmost amount of caution in terms of expectations. Let’s start with that group.

Supplemental Echelon “Six” – The Infirmary

1. Jesse Litsch (right elbow; July return), 24 years old, Toronto Blue Jays (echelon 4) – He enjoyed some success in 2007 and 2008 (combined 3.67 ERA in 287 IP) despite striking out just 4.7 batters per nine.

2. Edinson Volquez (Tommy John; late ’10 if at all), 26 years old, Cincinnati Reds (echelon 4) – If you have a reserve roster where you could get Volquez on the cheap and hold him over for 2011, he’s worth a look late just for the long-term investment. Could pitch 30-40 innings down the stretch, but who knows how valuable those would be?

3. Erik Bedard (left shoulder; August return), 30 years old, Seattle Mariners (echelon 4) – Same old story with Bedard. I heard a rumor that Rich Harden was quoted as saying Bedard is a candyass. Bedard could be a stretch run asset if he returns for the final two months, but I wouldn’t bend over backwards to land him, even in a league with a reserve roster.

4. Justin Duchscherer (back, right elbow, depression; Spring Training return), 32 years old, Oakland A’s (echelon 4) – Didn’t throw a single pitch in 2009 after a tremendous 2008 breakout. Like Bedard, Harden and the next guy on this list, he will ALWAYS carry significant risk no matter how well he pitches.

5. Kelvim Escobar (shoulder; Spring Training return), 34 years old, New York Mets (echelon 4) – I’m a huge fan of this guy but the simple fact is that he can’t be trusted. Word out of the Mets camp is that he could be used as a reliever, but I’m including him on the starting pitcher list because there’s a good enough chance he will get starts for that lame rotation sooner or later.

6. Ross Detwiler (hip; June return), 23 years old, Washington Nationals (echelon 5) – He has struck out nearly a batter per inning in 234 minor league innings, but managed just five per nine in 76 innings last year in 14 starts. Need to see some consistent performance upon return to even recommend a spot start duty.

7. Jordan Zimmerman (elbow; late ’10 if at all), 23 years old, Washington Nationals (echelon 5) – Like Volquez, Zimmerman is worth snapping up late if he can be reserved and kept inexpensively for 2011. I love his potential and would have had him possibly as high as echelon 2 if he were pitching this year. He and Stephen Strasburg will be a viable 1-2 for the Nationals for the coming years.

8. Josh Outman (Tommy John; late ’10), 25 years old, Oakland A’s (echelon 5) – The only reason Outman is echelon 5 is because I’m uncertain how much he can really offer upon his return in 2010. Plus by the time he returns, the Oakland rotation might be locked up so he might be relegated to relief work.

9. Dustin McGowan (shoulder; mid ’10), 27 years old, Toronto Blue Jays (echelon 5) – He didn’t throw a pitch last year and likely won’t throw one until midseason this year. Plus he’s really only had one above average season thus far. He’s displayed solid skills in his 354 major league innings (7.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9), but he’s complete wildcard with this much time off.

10. Shawn Hill (Tommy John; mid ’10), 28 years old, Toronto Blue Jays (echelon 5) – He’s another guy who always seems to be injured with one thing or another. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but holds enough control to manage a 2.0 K/BB rate. I liked him better in Washington and even better in San Diego. Even a healthy Hill could have some tough sledding in the AL Beast.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Strategy | 8 Comments »

Friday: 01.29.2010

Top 52 Starting Pitchers v2.0

Back in early November I posted my top 60 pitchers which accounted for tiers 1 and 2 of my rankings. I hadn’t really chewed on the season yet so it was never going to be final product, but now looking back is almost laughable. For starters, I foolishly forgot that Jordan Zimmerman had been injured and is slated to miss all of or at least most of the 2010 campaign making his 54th ranking a bit odd. I’m also a bit unhappy with the inclusions of Gil Meche (57) and Joba Chamberlain (59) as I feel they really stick out as not belonging.

As I knew I would, the list has been overhauled completely. I didn’t just rework the November list, I started from scratch. The new product shows eight fewer pitchers in my top two tiers and some new faces meaning even more than eight have departed from the first iteration. I haven’t put the pitchers in any order except to identify tiers 1 and 2. That doesn’t mean that all 15 in tier 1 are 100% interchangeable, just that I find them the most ace-worthy arms. The idea is that there is almost no risk (at least no overt risk, there is always a risk with pitchers) with this group anchoring your staff for 2010. Tier 2ers have at least one standing question about them that could roadblock them from an elite season whether it’s simply the uncertainty of youth, the fear of recurring injury from 2009 or just a skills hurdle (control, gopheritis, etc…) to believe they can be true aces. Tier 2 is a mix of high skills and moderate risk with some above average skill/low risk guys in for good measure.

Again, I’ve opted to just list the two tiers without ranking each because the point isn’t to debate whether Zack Greinke should be above Felix Hernandez or not. That’s largely irrelevant in the grand scheme because their value in 2010 will be too similar to be concerned about whether they’re list 4th or 5th.

Tier 1
1. Dan Haren, ARI Diamondbacks
2. Josh Beckett, BOS Red Sox
3. Jake Peavy, CHI White Sox
4. Justin Verlander, DET Tigers
5. Josh Johnson, FLO Marlins
6. Wandy Rodriguez, HOU Astros
7. Zack Greinke, KC Royals
8. Johan Santana, NY Mets
9. C.C. Sabathia, NY Yankees
10. Roy Halladay, PHI Phillies
11. Cole Hamels, PHI Phillies
12. Felix Hernandez, SEA Mariners
13. Cliff Lee, SEA Mariners
14. Tim Lincecum, SF Giants
15. Adam Wainwright, STL Cardinals

Tier 2
16. Edwin Jackson, ARI Diamondbacks
17. Brandon Webb, ARI Diamondbacks
18. Tommy Hanson, ATL Braves
19. Jair Jurrjens, ATL Braves
20. John Lackey, BOS Red Sox
21. Jon Lester, BOS Red Sox
22. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS Red Sox
23. Ryan Dempster, CHI Cubs
24. Ted Lilly, CHI Cubs
25. Carlos Zambrano, CHI Cubs
26. John Danks, CHI White Sox
27. Gavin Floyd, CHI White Sox
28. Johnny Cueto, CIN Reds
29. Aaron Harang, CIN Reds
30. Jorge de la Rosa, COL Rockies
31. Ubaldo Jimenez, COL Rockies
32. Max Scherzer, DET Tigers
33. Ricky Nolasco, FLO Marlins
34. Roy Oswalt, HOU Astros
35. Scott Kazmir, LA Angels
36. Jered Weaver, LA Angels
37. Chad Billingsley, LA Dodgers
38. Clayton Kershaw, LA Dodgers
39. Scott Baker, MIN Twins
40. Francisco Liriano, MIN Twins
41. Kevin Slowey, MIN Twins
42. Yovani Gallardo, MIL Brewers
43. A.J. Burnett, NY Yankees
44. Javier Vazquez, NY Yankees
45. Brett Anderson, OAK Athletics
46. Matt Cain, SF Giants
47. Chris Carpenter, STL Cardinals
48. Matt Garza, TB Rays
49. Jeff Niemann, TB Rays
50. David Price, TB Rays
51. James Shields, TB Rays
52. Rich Harden, TEX Rangers

There is an inherent risk with drafting starting pitchers, we’re all aware of that. That’s why Tier 1 is such a small class of bankable arms capable of 200 quality innings yielding exemplary ratios and a bundle of strikeouts. Tier 2 is also mindful of risk, but there are smart risks throughout the list. Brandon Webb is returning from a completely lost season, but signs point to a fully healthy return. Generally he is a Tier 1 pitcher, but given the lost season he gets bumped down. Francisco Liriano carried a 5.80 ERA last year making his appearance Tier 2 look out of place, but had FIP and xFIP number significantly lower (4.87 and 4.55, respectively) and struck out eight batters per nine innings (122 in 137 innings). Combine that with his dominant showing in the Dominican League this winter and I like his potential for 2010. The beauty of someone like Liriano and a handful of others in Tier 2 is that they will be had much cheaper.

I’ll release the remaining tiers soon. I’ve got 210 total arms and Tier 3 is the biggest so I’ll be releasing it by itself.

SP List v1.0

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Predictions, Strategy | 4 Comments »

Thursday: 01.28.2010

Victor Rojas Visits Baseball by Paul

Victor Rojas from MLB Network joined me to discuss the 2010 season including the best and worst of the offseason as well as some players on the rise. I was also joined by Christy Hofmann of AthleticsNation.com to discuss the 2010 Oakland ballclub, who were picked by BaseballProspectus.com‘s PECOTA projections to win the AL West.

Show Homepage
Episode 4 with Victor Rojas

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Off-Season, Podcast, Predictions | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 01.21.2010

26 Under 26 Part 1

As I prepare myself for another fantasy baseball season (which seems to be a year-round endeavor these days, and I’m not complaining), I love to see how everyone is valuing “The Next Big Things”. I think as a whole the fantasy community generally overvalues youth in hopes of landing the next Albert Pujols or Ryan Braun. Then when someone does struggle out of the gate (as many, perhaps most, do), they are cast aside as a failure by a large segment of the community as another next big thing is put on a pedestal. This then creates value in subsequent seasons for the “failures”.

I used to heavily favor youth in my gameplan, probably to a fault. But in recent years I’ve become much more risk averse and therefore have curbed my desire to acquire rookies unless they present tremendous value. Of course they are caveats to all strategies based on the draft you’re in. I won’t get into those right now because that’s probably a whole other 2000-word piece. I want to present a group of 26 players 26 & under who I think are ready for a significant step forward. There aren’t any superstars on this list. Everyone knows that Prince Fielder is a stud who will deliver. Same with Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton and Evan Longoria. These are first and second rounders that I don’t need to cover. That isn’t to say the list is a group of unknowns. That’s not the case at all. It’s just a group of young players poised for a step forward that will give them value beyond their average draft position (ADP).

I’ve ranked the 26 players based on their overall value in my estimation:

26. Jesus Flores, C – Washington Nationals – I wanted to rate him as high as 23rd, but the presence of Ivan Rodriguez makes that impossible. Despite being 100 years old, Pudge is still churning out the at-bats however poor they may be and that will relegate Flores to a sub-400 AB season barring an injury or a complete fade of Pudge’s skills (I’m talking even worse than his .664 OPS from last year). Flores has had flashes and through 90 at-bats last year, he appeared to be in on his way towards a breakout season hitting .311/.382/.522. Injuries would relegate him to just three at-bats the rest of the way. Even in 350 at-bats, he could pop 12-14 home runs with a .270 average. That’s a pretty solid C2, heck it wouldn’t be the worst C1 given the wasteland that is catching.

25. Steve Pearce, 1B – Pittsburgh Pirates – After just 165 at-bats last year, Pearce should be ready for a full workload in 2010. It’s make or break time for him with the Pirates as they are starting to build something bordering on legitimacy with this front office and he will be pressed out of action if he hits .206 again. I see Pearce putting up a Garrett Jones-type season (low 20s in home runs with 10-12 stolen bases) except across 450-500 ABs instead of the 314 Jones used to hit 21 bombs with a .293 average. Pearce struggles far too much against righties to hit .293 like Jones without vast improvement, but he can mash lefties enough to sustain a .265 average. He’s definitely an NL-Only league option right now, but like Jones he could emerge into an option across all formats.

24. Buster Posey, C – San Francisco Giants – I discussed Posey for 2010 in a piece some time back. I think he will be impactful as a mid-level catcher, but the fantasy community appears to have learned from Matt Wieters a season ago. Posey isn’t going outrageously early and that’s good because he is very unlikely to have a massive season. Geovany Soto’s 2008 is an exception to how rookie catchers perform while Wieters’ struggles relative to expectations is more in line with what you should expect. There is so much demand defensively and with handling the staff that hitting becomes secondary. Play up Posey’s poor showing at the AFL when he was clearly gassed from such a laborious season and hopefully you can drive his value down even further. A hot spring would likely put him in the Wieters Zone, but stay strong and value him around what John Baker was last year, at least in terms of overall value ($11). … Stupid Bengie Molina!!!

23. Chris Young, OF – Arizona Diamondbacks – Yes, I love the guy. I know I’m not alone but this bandwagon has cleared out since the beginning of 2009. It is so hard to forget the 32 home runs and 27 stolen bases from 2007. At 26, it’s not unreasonable to believe he can get back to that level or better, but it is going to take significant improvements from Young. He must change his approach if he wants to stick around in this league. The simple fact is that his tools alone, which are plentiful, won’t get him through 162 games. At least not 162 games at the major league level. This is his last chance to a relevant fantasy asset. He will come cheap and could return massive dividends.

22. Eric Young Jr., 2B – Colorado Rockies – Young doesn’t have a guaranteed spot in 2010, but he will contend with Clint Barmes and could push his way into some outfield at-bats, too. His primary asset is a ridiculous amount of speed. In the minors since 2006, he’s stolen 87, 73, 46 and 58 bases while hitting between .290 and .299. His ceiling in 2010 would be a Juan Pierre clone, but I wouldn’t bank on the batting average coming right away. Though it was just 57 at-bats, Young looked lost at the dish during his big league stint in August and September. On the low end, he will be a cheap speed option in NL-Only leagues struggling for regular at-bats. Keep an eye on his battle for playing time in Spring Training and pay accordingly.

21. Ryan Sweeney, OF – Oakland A’s – I’m a big fan of Sweeney’s. He’s a very good hitter and he managed to stay relatively healthy and log 484 at-bats. His primary contribution is a high batting average as evidenced by his .293 last year and .291 in 1928 minor league at-bats. He’s got the ability to hit .310-.320, but it remains to be seen how much more he can offer apart from that. He doesn’t do much by way of home runs or stolen bases while his runs scored and driven totals are hampered by being on an anemic squad in Oakland. At 25 (in February), he is still growing as a hitter so I think we will see more power come perhaps even in 2010. I think his ceiling is about 12-14, especially in that cavernous ballpark. He has the ability to match that figure in stolen bases, but given his injury history I don’t see the A’s putting any unnecessary pressure on his body and allowing him to run much more than he did last year.

20. Lastings Milledge, OF – Pittsburgh Pirates – Some idiot thought this guy was going to be HUGE last year. Yep, it was me. The only huge stat he posted in 2009 was games missed: 97. In late June he was traded from the Nationals to the Pirates where he will now be a left fielder after the emergence of uber-prospect Andrew McCutchen in center. Milledge, like a handful of guys on this list, is someone who has been labeled a bust already despite the fact that he isn’t yet 25 years old (April 5th) and has 1117 at-bats spreading across parts of three seasons and one full season. He’s the kind of guy who starts reaching his potential and people write stupid articles headlined, “Where Did Milledge Come From?” as if he’s a complete unknown or as if there wasn’t a colossal overreaction to bury these kids the instant they don’t come up and hit like Ryan Braun. Milledge is a very good power/speed capable of topping his 14 HR/24 SB season from 2008, but probably not right away. I would use that season as a gauge of what Milledge is capable of, but don’t pay for based off of that season for the simple fact that it’s completely unnecessary. He’s available VERY late across all formats.

I will do another part with 19-11 and then 10-1 soon.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 01.21.2010

Baseball by Paul Podcast: Episode 2

The second show is up at the BbP Podcast page and on iTunes. I talked with Will Carroll from BaseballProspectus.com about a bunch of players and how injuries will affect their draft status in 2010.

Can you count on Jose Reyes to put you in top three in SBs?
Is Reyes teammate Carlos Beltran worth gambling on?
How much of the Cy Young form will Brandon Webb regain in 2010?
In what way does Erik Bedard your psycho ex-girlfriend?
Will Daisuke Matsuzaka bounce back?

This and much more with Will…

Episode 2 w/Will Carroll

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Podcast, Predictions, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

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Thursday: 01.7.2010

2010 Third Basemen: 10-1

Finally wrapping up my three part series on third basemen with my top 10. As I’ve blasted through several mock drafts already this offseason, one thing was apparent early on: 3B is paper thin. It’s not the thinnest position, I will get to that next week when I unveil my shortstop rankings, but it’s a close second. There is some viable star power at the top, but it dries up in a hurry and then becomes a handful of names in a hat. I don’t even think the top 10 is fully bankable, starting at 10:

10. Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves – Jones has topped 500 at-bats just once in the last six seasons (513 in 2007) yet he has managed to routinely put up top tier seasons in his limited playing time. Until last year. It was his worst HR (18) and RBI (71) season ever and his second-worst batting average (.264). His .264 was a 100-drop from his excellent 2008 leaving many wondering what to make of the two vastly disparate seasons. He hit .292 in the first half followed by .239 in the second so it’s hard to make much out of 255 poor at-bats. His 2008 power was a significant decline from where he had been all his career and then 2009 was another stair step down suggesting that it is likely for real at age 38. He is likely done with 20-home run seasons, but another .300 season may not be out of the question. Don’t pay for anything more than .285-15-75 while praying for .320-20-90 in one final hurrah.

9. Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox – Youk acquitted himself brilliantly after a 2008 breakout turning in a near carbon copy performance in 33 fewer plate appearances. Though more valuable at third base without question, his dual-eligibility (1B) is a nice bonus. At 31, it looks like he has another 2-3 seasons at this level with a legitimate shot to top 30 home runs. In an OBP-league, Youk goes from solid to truly elite in the rate category. He is well known for his batting eye and after back-to-back .390 OBP seasons, he finally topped .400 last year (.413). If your league penalizes for getting your punkass smoked by 20-year old future aces, you may want to pass on Youkilis.

8. Pablo Sandoval, San Francisco Giants – I was a bit skeptical of Sandoval coming into last season. The hype was massive especially as many salivated over his potential catcher-eligibility. He eventually delivered to the leagues with loosest eligibility rules as he played three games behind the dish, but his stats were so good that it didn’t matter where you put him in your lineup. Like Youkilis, he holds 1B/3B eligibility though his days as a backstop are likely over. I don’t mind admitting I missed the boat on Sandoval, but I refuse to make the same mistake twice. There is nothing in his stat set that suggests he is a fraud and at 24, there is likely more power on the way. He racked up 79 runs and 90 RBIs in that garbage lineup last year which stands to improve in 2010 with newly acquired Mark DeRosa, a full season of Freddy Sanchez, growth in a full time role from Nate Schierholtz and rookie phenom Buster Posey. This could push Sandoval into 90 R/100 RBI territory if things break right. Plenty to like here.

7. Mark Reynolds, Arizona Diamondbacks – This ranking isn’t a complete indictment of Reynolds so much as it is my preference for six others above him. That is to say I don’t think he will be a bum in 2010. He has completely legit middle-of-the-lineup power, but a 26% HR/FB just isn’t sustainable meaning the 44 HR total is coming down. I expect him to be in the low 30s for home runs this year. A lot is made of his batting average going from .239 in 2008 to .260 last year, but you are really looking at about 11-12 hits either way. Over the course of 26 weeks, that isn’t much. The home run dip will definitely drop his value from where it was in 2009, but the real drop will come in the stolen base department. He is much more likely to get the 11 he had in 2008 than the 24 he had last year. I would put him in the mid-teens and go from there. Consider that he had 11 in 1216 minor league at-bats and none during his first 405 major league at-bats. Even a .250-30-90-13 line is extremely valuable despite being a far cry from his 2009 breakout. The problem is that you’re going to pay a premium for 2009 in many leagues.

6. Chone Figgins, Seattle Mariners – Going from fantasy baseball Swiss Army Knife to 3B-only has impacted Figgins’ value. Unfairly in my opinion. Yes it was awesome when you could slot him in so many different spots, especially the middle infield spots, but he’s not worthless as a third baseman. Third base is a power position, but if you draft Figgins there you just adjust your plan to get power elsewhere. It’s not the end of the world. To hear some talk about it, if you draft Figgins you’re destined to last place in home runs before the season even starts. He has slowly added a sharp eye to his arsenal topping 100 walks for the first time ever last year. Though it was a large 39-walk improvement from 2008, it is supported by his gradual improvement since 2005. A great average and high walk total are perfect for improving his primary offerings in fantasy baseball: runs scored and stolen bases. A .290-100-40 line makes Figgins a viable 3-category. It’s not the three you generally you expect out of third base, but that doesn’t mean it is bad, just different.

5. Aramis Ramirez, Chicago Cubs – Ramirez labored through a bum shoulder in 2009 that relegated him to just 306 at-bats, but he still managed .317-46-15-65 in that time. He’s one of the more unheralded corner men as compared to his peers in this top 10, but he is as consistent as they get when on the field. And better yet, he won’t cost as much as some who will rank behind him. He’s had a few other stints on the disabled list during his time, but from 2001-2008 he averaged 146 games played with 30 HR and 100 RBI while hitting .289. The time off this winter gives him time to heal and come into Spring Training at 100%. A 100% Ramirez means another 30/100 season. He appears to have cured his woes against southpaws (.239 in 2008, .350 in ’09) making another .300+ season a near certainty. He should come cheaper than many of the elite 3B making him a great target.

4. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals – From a pure value as compared to draft position standpoint, there might not have been anyone better than Zimmerman last year. Would you be surprised if I told you it was Zimmerman’s fourth full season in the bigs last year? Or would you more surprised if I told you he is just 25 years old? It should be no surprise that a player who showed excellent promise upon reaching the majors still had room to grow by season four and may still have another level yet. Too often a player is pigeonholed after a season or two when they first come up without much thought given to the fact that young players can get better as they pile up at-bats even if those first two seasons were very good. He has .310+ capability in his bat which take him up another level in the overall rankings when paired with 100-35-100. Don’t back down in a bidding war for his services.

3. David Wright, New York Mets – I originally had Wright second ahead of Longoria, but upon further review I made the switch but I don’t hate Wright in 2010 as many do. He had a bad season in 2009, there are no two ways around it. But he was positively brilliant for four straight seasons before that so why should one down season erase that body of work? That answer is it shouldn’t but in the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately culture we live in, his value will be depressed (severely in some instances) on the heels of last year. Make no mistake, Citi Field WAS NOT the reason for his power outage. I don’t care how many magazines or how many times ESPN tells you as much, it’s simply not true. Trying to make heads or tails of his 2009 is fruitless endeavor. You can try and tailor excuses to fit his struggles and talk about how his stolen base bump alleviated some of the pain of the power outage, but it’s all futile at this point. He had a poor season. They happen. Even to superstars. He is going to be 27 in 2010 and if early mock drafts are any indication, he is going to be a huge value. He went 11th in an NL-Only I did and 15th (to me) in a 15 team mixed league that I was in. A good spring will restore the faith back in him and level set his value where it belongs, but anything mediocre or worse will leave him in the bargain zone.

2. Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays – An amazing pair of seasons already for Longoria who turned 24 in the offseason and has an even brighter future ahead of him. I think both 40-HR and .300+ AVG capability are within his skillset, though the latter may take another two to three years to develop as he works on his ability to make contact more consistently while the former could happen as soon as 2010. He may even sneak into the low teens in stolen bases after notching seven and nine in his first two seasons. There isn’t much more to say about this budding superstar except that I like him as a late first/early second round pick in mixed drafts and as high as third overall (behind A-Rod and Miguel Cabrera) in AL-Only leagues.

1. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees – In 444 at-bats, he nearly matched the 2008 totals he accumulated in 510 at-bats. And that was coming off of hip surgery and a remarkably tumultuous offseason during which he confessed to taking PEDs. At 34, he remains one of baseball’s absolute best players and he has another 2-3 MVP-caliber seasons in him starting with a healthy 2010. The mock drafters are very cognizant of this fact as he has an ADP of 3 at both CouchManagers.com and MockDraftCentral.com. Even with the hip surgery, he came back and stole 14 bases when many believed that element of his game would be almost completely cut out. He remains a bona fide 5-category superstar worthy of that ADP. In AL-Only leagues, he’s still my first pick overall. I’m so very glad I went against my initial instinct and bought into the hype about the injury and missed time during the preseason last year. As you may recall (since I’ve told the story ~ 4.7 million times), I had to turn in a 2-keeper list for my AL-Only league. I had Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and BJ Upton. I figured those were three of the top five in the AL at their best so I went with the two who would be playing from Opening Day and threw A-Rod back. It was the first time in 13 years that A-Rod wasn’t on my team and it cursed my season from the start. He was drafted second overall (behind Matt Holliday) and likely won’t be available to draft in the league ever again unless he hangs around too long and has a few flameout seasons at the end. For the record, I’m keeping Joe Mauer with Teixiera this year.

Next up: Shortstops

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Strategy, Third Base | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 12.23.2009

2010 Focus: Kevin Slowey

One of my favorite pitchers coming into 2009, Slowey was cut down after just 91 innings with a strained right wrist that eventually required surgery and ended his season on July 3rd. Though known for his remarkable control, Slowey isn’t a junkballer who gets by strictly on that control. He has maintained an above average strikeout rate since coming into the league in 2007 and it has steadily improved year over year. He went from 6.3 in 67 innings in 2007 to 6.9 in 160 innings in 2008 to a very healthy 7.4 last year. All the while keeping his BB/9 in the 1.3 to 1.5 range. That is sheer brilliance. To wit, only Joel Pineiro (1.1) and Roy Halladay (1.3) were sharper in 2009 amongst pitchers with at least as many innings as Slowey (1.5). In 2008, nobody bested Slowey’s 1.35 mark. It was moved out two decimal places because Cliff Lee (1.37), Mike Mussina (1.39) and Greg Maddux (1.39) were close. And in 2007, even with keeping the innings threshold in line with Slowey’s total (67), he finished 7th at 1.5.

He is expected to be ready to go by the start of Spring Training and I expect him to pick up where he left off and make good on the breakout promise he has shown thus far. He will be 26 years old shortly after the season begins (May 4th to be exact) and I believe he has another level to be reached in his game. It will all hinge upon his ability to keep the ball in the yard. Slowey is a severe flyball pitcher which thus far stands as the lone fly in his ointment (see what I did there?). It has led to ugly HR/9 rates ranging from 1.2 (in 2008 during his best season) to 2.2 (in 2007 which led to a 4.76 ERA). Last year, despite a brilliant 5.0 K/BB ratio, he was saddled with a career-worst 4.86 ERA because of a 1.5 HR/9.

The potential downside of the laser-like control displayed by Slowey is the fact that the ball is almost always over the plate. That means the ball will be hit, often. Where it goes determines the pitcher’s success. The perfect storm is pinpoint control and a high groundball rate to match. That leads to something resembling Pineiro’s excellent 2009 season in which he had a 3.49 ERA and 1.14 WHIP thanks to a 60% GB rate accompanying his aforementioned league-best BB/9 of 1.1. Imagine if he had the strikeout rate of Slowey, he’d have been nearly untouchable.

I don’t expect Slowey to all of a sudden induce groundballs at that kind of eye-popping clip. Heck, no one expected Pineiro to either as it was an 11% increase on the rate he had produced in the two years previous. Right now, Slowey is averaging around 33% each year. In order to have the kind of staff-leading season his K/BB suggests he can have, he will need to get that up to at least 40% if not closer to 45%. In the absence of such a rise, he will need to dramatically cut his HR/9. It can be done. Jered Weaver has shown as much with a flyball rate nearly identical to Slowey’s, but a HR/9 consistently at 1.0. Of course Weaver does this by defying the generally accepted norm of 10% HR/fb rate. He has held steady at 8% for virtually his entire career. Slowey can learn from what Weaver is doing should he not be able to correct his flyball ways instead.

For now, I strongly advise you pay for 2008 as your ceiling (3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, nearly 7.0 K/9) while knowing that hidden value may be on the horizon in the form of an improved groundball rate which could easily lop as much as 0.50 off of his ERA giving you an ace-like pitcher at #2 or even #3 cost, depending on how your league values injury comebacks. Go the extra dollar to secure his services and your WHIP will thank you mightily.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 12.22.2009

Javy Vazquez to NY: The Fantasy Impact

Twitter is blowing up with 140-character chunks of analysis on the latest Yankees trade which netted them Javier Vazquez for the Melky Cabrera, Michael Dunn and Arodys Vizciano. Instead of focusing on who won or lost the deal (consensus is the Braves were slaughtered, but I’m not entirely sure), let’s look at the fantasy baseball impact of the move.

In early November, I published the first edition of my top 60 starting pitchers for 2010. It was a first run that has already undergone serious changes (I had forgotten about Jordan Zimmerman‘s Tommy John Surgery for one thing) and this trade will affect yet another big change. I rated Vazquez 9th in between Josh Beckett and Jake Peavy. I loved him as an ace based not only on his excellent 2009 season, but also the elite skills displayed each of the four years prior to 2009. In those four seasons he struck out 8.4 per nine while walking just 2.3, but he was saddled with a 4.41 ERA and a sub-.500 record (49-51). I expect the skills to remain strong, but I’d be blown away if he managed an ERA anywhere near his 2009 mark. He has a 4.02 ERA in 1664 National League innings, but a 4.52 ERA in 826 American League innings.

Vazquez is going to move down my list a healthy bit with his move to New York. If you’re looking for specifics on his numbers, I’d project at least an ERA of 4.20 and a WHIP slightly above his career level of 1.25. The biggest problem will be the rise in HR/9. He was at a sparkling 0.8 last year, but 1.5 during his first tour in New York. If he’s at 1.5 again in 2010, the 4.20 ERA might be way off. Look for at least a 1.2 mark, which would be at least 10 more home runs if he kept his 2009 inning count intact.

He will still crack the top 60 of course, but he doesn’t stand a chance at being in the top 15 first tier in the next SP list update.

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Sunday: 11.15.2009

2010 Projections Coming Out

For baseball junkies (such as myself), the season never really ends. After the regular season comes the postseason. After the postseason comes the Arizona Fall League. After the AFL comes the Hot Stove League which includes tons of player movement and all the offseason analysis and projections. That leads right in to Spring Training and then boom, we’re playing for real again!

Bill James usually has the first set of projections out with his yearly Handbook and then Fangraphs will incorporate them into their player profiles. We now have our second set out as Chone Smith has released his 2010 CHONE hitting projections found here. If I recall from last year, the CHONE system is ULTRA conservative with its projections. Almost no growth for anybody. Meanwhile, James takes a lot more chances with his numbers. All both of them really are is another data point. I wouldn’t trust either blindly, of course that’s true of any projection set even if you love the outlet that dispenses them.

The Player Profiles moving forward will now include both the James and CHONE projections along with my own. Well the hitting ones will, the pitching ones will only have James and my own as CHONE hasn’t finished his pitchers yet.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 04.6.2009

2009 Predictions

Though these will invariably be wrong, here is my take on how the 2009 season will shake out:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL East –
Boston 98-64
New York 96-66
Tampa Bay 93-69
Baltimore 72-90
Toronto 70-92

I originally had the BOS, NYY and TB with three more wins apiece, but this division is so stacked so that I bumped all down a notch. It’s shame that one of these teams will have to go home in October. I love Boston’s 1-3 and if they get 250 total IP from Brad Penny-John Smoltz, look out. Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis will lead the offense even if David Ortiz doesn’t comeback…

If the Yanks stay healthy on the mound, specifically AJ Burnett, they’ll be very good. Overall, they shouldn’t miss A-Rod SO much that it cripples their season. Even if he misses time past May. Perhaps we’ll see a case of Bill Simmons‘ “Ewing Theory”. Fact is, the lineup is deep enough to still be productive even without an all-world player like Rodriguez. Moving Derek Jeter to leadoff was a very wise move and it looks like Jorge Posada might have enough for one more year in the tank based on his strong spring. The bullpen has some live arms with Edwar Ramirez, Jose Veras, Brian Bruney and Jonathan Albaladejo to lead up to Mariano Rivera. Rivera was excellent last year, but he’s not getting any younger so he could feasibly just fall off the table at any point. Their depth on the bench would allow them to sustain an injury much better than in 2008…

Tampa isn’t a one-year wonder, but they could be on the outside looking in this season. Carl Crawford will be excellent and a full season of Evan Longoria should be even better. And the Pat Burrell signing was a stroke of genius, but the offense as a whole might not be enough to net back-to-back playoff appearances in that absurdly deep division. The rotation might actually be better in 2009 as they are a truly elite group poised to get better thanks to emerging youngsters Jeff Niemann and David Price. The bullpen will regress a bit, but still be a reliable asset. That said, we’re talking about a very slim margin between them and the BoSox so I just went with the gut here, but I could see any variation of those three at the top…

I actually like a lot of about the Baltimore and Toronto squads, but 57 games against those behemoths is just unfair! Baltimore will score some runs with that lineup with table-setter Brian Roberts getting it started for Nick Markakis as he makes a bid to become a reliable 30-100 producer and Aubrey Huff who comes down a bit from last year but remains very productive. I hate their staff top-to-bottom barring a huge Rich Hill comeback. Koji Uehara is a complete unknown coming over to the States, but even if both panned out they’d still struggle to reach .500…

Toronto is uncertain behind Roy Halladay, but I do like David Purcey. Those two alone won’t be enough and I think the bullpen will be pressed much more this year and likely won’t respond as they did in 2008. Any lineup with Marco Scutaro leading off is suspect. Alex Rios and Vernon Wells have been favorites of mine for awhile and they could end up with those two, Adam Lind and Travis Snider forming a potent 3-6.

AL Central –
Cleveland 84-78
Minnesota 82-80
Kansas City 82-80
Detroit 80-82
Chicago 74-88

Very tight race top-to-bottom and the right breaks could flip the standings upside down here. Cleveland’s offense should be strong even if Travis Hafner doesn’t make a comeback, but I’m not at all sold on their rotation past Cliff Lee. And he won’t be like last year, so they could be in trouble. Reliance on Carl Pavano and Anthony Reyes for a team that is a chic pick to make noise this season is frightening…

As much as I love the front three of Minnesota’s staff, they can’t do it all. Scott Baker is apparently already banged up and how many innings do they really want to put on Francisco Liriano‘s arm this year? Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins will both have ERAs at or topping 4.50. With Joe Mauer out, they have a pretty horrible infield offense outside of Justin Morneau and their OF core though deep with usable players lacks any legitimate lineup studs…

Kansas City is chicest pick to succeed this year and while I like what they’re building, they’re not there yet. Great 1-2 punch with Gil Meche and Zach Greinke and some are projecting nice things for Kyle Davies, but even if he pans out, their winning streaks will often be halted at 3 with Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez manning the back end of their rotation. Can’t have a sub-.300 OBP Jose Guillen again and need Mike Aviles to be close to his 2008 version…

The Tigers will ride their lineup to this record and any legitimate success will be based entirely on their rotation and bullpen vastly improving from 2008. Miguel Cabrera‘s name is being bandied about as a Triple Crown threat and though it’d be very difficult, the talk is merited as he is that good. Curtis Granderson didn’t run as much in 2008, but manager Jim Leyland plans to utilize his speed much more along with that of newly acquired Josh Anderson. On the mound, Edwin Jackson will be a key as will phenom-blue chipper Rick Porcello. If they can be 4.30/1.35 pitchers (a tall order indeed), then the Tigers can be competitive especially with that dynamite offense and vastly improved defense…

The White Sox aren’t particularly strong on either side of the ball. John Danks and Mark Buerhle are reliable at the top of the rotation, but it’s scary from there on. How will Carlos Quentin respond to the wrist surgery? Can Paul Konerko come back? Will Alexei Ramirez be the mini-Alfonso Soriano he’s been pegged as for 2009? Is Josh Fields finally ready? Jermaine Dye and Jim Thome are pretty bankable, but that’s it. Bobby Jenks needs to show that his minute 8 IP spring sample is a sign of things to come as opposed to his 62 IP from 2008 in which he had 5.5 K/9.

AL West –
Oakland 86-76
Los Angeles 84-78
Texas 75-86
Seattle 70-92

Another tight division that could go more than one way. Oakland’s youth movement is in full effect in the rotation, but their veteran presence in the lineup is why I like them to take the division. The Matt Holliday trade was very strong and Billy Beane supplemented it by acquiring Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and Nomar Garciaparra. If they can get healthy seasons out of Mark Ellis, Ryan Sweeney and Travis Buck, they’re in business. Look for Kurt Suzuki to take a big step forward offensively as this offense and defense takes pressure off of the green staff. Sean Gallagher and Gio Gonzalez are primed and waiting in the wings if any of their first five should fail…

The Angels lost their two aces (John Lackey and Ervin Santana) before the season even started while another top SP, Kelvim Escobar, isn’t back from last year’s injuries. Their offense could be very strong in a best-case scenario, but it’s old in the outfield and unproven on the infield (except for Chone Figgins). Hopefully Joe Saunders didn’t return his smoke or mirrors because he’ll need both in 2009. A big step forward from Jered Weaver won’t be enough to cover the health issues if Lackey, Santana and Escobar don’t hurry back and stay for good…

Texas relies heavily on their very potent offense, but you can’t win every game 9-8. Their rotation sucks. There is virtually no upside in that quintet and Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland can’t get to Arlington quick enough for the Rangers. Their defense can’t possibly give up another 100+ unearned runs again or they could lose 100 games. The future is EXTREMELY bright for this ballclub, but for 2009 they remain a one-dimensional team. They’re a fantasy baseball team that punted starting pitching.

I love Seattle’s 1-2 and their outfield defense once Ichiro Suzuki returns is excellent. Jose Lopez is a great 2B and should be even better in 2009, but when he, Ichiro and Adrian Beltre are really all they have on offense. Brandon Morrow is closing, which is best for him and the team. There isn’t much else that inspires confidence in the M’s. They refuse to play Jeff Clement for some reason instead choosing to rely on Mike Sweeney & Russell Branyan for serious playing time.

Playoffs –
Boston over Cleveland
New York over Oakland
Boston over New York

Awards –
MVP: Grady Sizemore
Cy Young: Daisuke Matsuzaka
Rookie of the Year: Matt Wieters*

* – he might not even have the best rookie stats, but as long as he doesn’t totally bomb, they’ll give him the nod.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL East –
New York 98-64
Atlanta 94-70
Philadelphia 82-80
Florida 79-83
Washington 75-87

The Mets addressed their biggest weakness from the last two years by acquiring two elite closers for the 8th and 9th innings. Throw-in Sean Green from the JJ Putz deal will also help shore up that pen with his insane 60%+ GB rate. Three superstars carry the offense while Ryan Church and Daniel Murphy have the potential to take nice steps forward and alleviate any potential regression from Carlos Delgado and Luis Castillo due to age…

Atlanta was just horrible in 1-run games last year (11-30) thanks in large part to not having their three best options in the bullpen for almost the entire season as Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan combined for 65 innings last year. They should log more than three times with around 200 IP between them this year. Adding Javier Vazquez, Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami to Jair Jurrjens gives them a legitimate staff to get to the aforementioned bullpen. A Jeff Francoeur rebound would give them a lineup that contains no breaks for opposing pitchers. Could chase down the Mets with 500+ ABs from Chipper Jones…

Having their own trio of superstars powering the offense should prevent a TOTAL post-World Series collapse for Philly especially with very good players like Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth and Raul Ibanez giving them a very potent 2/3rds of the lineup. The pitching is the scary part this year. Neither Brad Lidge nor Cole Hamels will repeat their dream seasons from 2008. Lidge won’t fall back to his Houston form that prompted this move in the first place, but how will he respond to the merciless fans when he blows a few saves? Hamels will still be great when he pitches, but can he top 175 IP? The staff after Hamels is laden with question marks…

Unless the defense improves sharply, this team won’t be able to push forward on their surprising 84-win 2008 campaign. The upside of their top 4 starters is jaw-dropping, but will be stunted if they lead the league in errors again. They could also be limited by an uncertain bullpen. Matt Lindstrom is supposed to be their best, but he’s not terribly impressive so where’s that leave the rest of them? Jose Ceda could emerge from the minors as their stopper. Jeremy Hermida needs to finally make good while Jorge Cantu can’t just disappear again…

Washington finally doesn’t have an offense hinged on whether or not Nick Johnson stays healthy. They are pretty strong 1-8 as well as deep on the bench with Elijah Dukes, Josh Willingham and Willie Harris. Pitching remains the problem in the nation’s capital. At 27, Daniel Cabrera is elder statesman of the staff. Will he finally put it all together in the NL? His trends are horrible as his primary asset (strikeouts) has eroded to 4.7 K/9. Scott Olsen is on a similarly terrible downtrend in K/9 bottoming out at 5.0 last year. They’ll be better, but still a good bit away from contending.

NL Central –
Chicago 95-66
Milwaukee 84-78
St. Louis 83-78
Cincinnati 83-79
Houston 66-97
Pittsburgh 60-102

Chicago remains the class of the division though jettisoning Mark DeRosa was puzzling. They have two elite players known more for getting hurt than playing in Milton Bradley and Rich Harden. If both last the full season, it could be a dominating one in the Windy City. It looks like Lou Piniella realizes that Carlos Marmol is more valuable at the 7th-8th inning guy while Kevin Gregg is plenty capable of closing. It broke the hearts of us fantasy baseballers, but he’s not concerned with giving the best skills guy the most saves. Plus it’s not set in stone. Sean Marshall‘s improvements as a full-time starter will help alleviate Ryan Dempster‘s regression and Carlos Zambrano‘s continued descent…

The losses of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets can be quelled, at least to a degree, by Yovani Gallardo‘s return and the maturation of Manny Parra into a top-level starter. If Dave Bush can finally put his skills together for an entire season, they might not even notice their 2008 1-2 punch is gone. What makes their potent offense all the more impressive is how much of it is home grown. Look for Rickie Weeks to finally emerge and Corey Hart to be the improved 2007 version that was hoped for last year. Carlos Villanueva was brilliant in relief last year and he could end up as their closer for more than just this week while the 41-year old Trevor Hoffman gets well…

The Cardinals have built around the league’s best hitter and gone from there. Ryan Ludwick‘s minor league power translated perfectly last year as he was finally given a full season to flourish. Albert Pujols, Ludwick and Rick Ankiel are the power core of the lineup and that’s pretty strong. Ludwick won’t approach .300 again, but he’ll smash 30+ again. In fact, he and Ankiel may have matching .270-30-90 seasons. Khalil Greene finally leaves Petco and will be very good if healthy. His defense will help cancel out the potential defensive pitfalls from bringing Skip Schumaker into 2B from the outfield. Todd Wellemeyer was a brilliant surprise in 2008, but a repeat would be 10x more surprising. Chris Carpenter‘s spring portends a rebound to his previous excellence, but it’s far too early to tell. If he and Adam Wainwright go for 350 IP, the Cards have a shot…

The Reds are built around three star offensive players (Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce) and very strong rotation anchored by the revitalized Aaron Harang. Edinson Volquez won’t be what he was in 2008, but Harang’s return to dominance will offset that dip in performance. Getting Johnny Cueto that big-league experience in 2008 will prove invaluable moving forward. Francisco Cordero may not last as the closer all year, but Jared Burton is a more than adequate replacement for the walk-happy incumbent. However, if Cordero does last then Cincy will have a similar Marmol-Gregg set up where the better skills guy is pitching the higher leverage situations. Edwin Encarnacion is still just 26 years old and should build upon his career-high 26 HR season from 2008…

Two top-level starters and three star hitters describes the Astros in a nutshell. After Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, they are letting Brian Moehler, Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz make starts. Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman are bona fide superstar hitters while Hunter Pence is quite good and getting better. Pudge Rodriguez could recapture his magic one last time, but that still wouldn’t be enough to make this team worthwhile. Even a resurgence from Miguel Tejada and quality seasons from Michael Bourn, Geoff Blum and Kaz Matsui could overcome the back 3/5ths of that rotation. In case you forgot form a few seconds ago, Brian Moehler is their third starter…

The bright side for Pittsburgh is prospects Andrew McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez point to better days ahead. They have some other useful pieces already with the club like Nate McLouth, Ryan Doumit, Paul Maholm and Matt Capps, but too many question marks everywhere else leave them as a bottom feeder. Will Ian Snell ever be worth anything again? Can the LaRoche brothers be high quality contributors for the next five (for Adam) to eight (for Andy) years? Pitching looks like it’ll be an issue for years to come as Brad Lincoln is their only top 5 pitching prospect and he’s a 24 year old getting crushed in high-A ball.

NL West –
Los Angeles 92-70
Arizona 89-77
San Francisco 82-80
Colorado 64-98
San Diego 58-104

A full year of Manny Ramirez, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake and Clayton Kershaw along with maturation from youngsters Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, James Loney, Russell Martin and Chad Billingsley and the addition of Orlando Hudson to the lineup and defense points towards a runaway victory in the West. James McDonald is their top prospect and will be called on to deliver as Kershaw did last year. A capable bench along with flexibility among the starters makes LA a pretty complete team. And if they run into issues midsummer, they aren’t above trading from their ever-deep farm to acquire the appropriate pieces needed…

Arizona loves to pair two elite aces and go from there. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are their new Johnson-Schilling combo. Losing Hudson for Felipe Lopez will severely dent the defense behind elite groundballer Webb, but Lopez is poised for an offensive rebound after a strong stint with St. Louis. Many pitchers experience a boost moving from the AL to the NL and the D-Backs are definitely hoping Jon Garland follows suit. Their rotation runs six deep and their bullpen has three guys that could feasibly be closers. Drew is going to take another step forward at the plate as could Chris Young, Conor Jackson, Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds and Chris Snyder. Healthy seasons out of Chad Tracy and Eric Byrnes would only add depth to this very strong ballclub…

Powered by an excellent pitching staff, the Giants are the National League’s chic pick to be successful in 2009 and they addressed a key weakness by acquiring Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affedlt to shore up their bullpen. Tim Lincecum, Randy Johnson and Matt Cain might be the best top three in baseball. I’m past suggesting that Barry Zito could return to his superstar form, but 5th starter Jonathan Sanchez is a fireballer capable of much better than his 5.01 ERA from 2008. The offense limits the ceiling of this team for this season. There are a lot of quality role players that would work wonderfully in established lineups like Philadelphia’s, Boston’s, Texas’s and Detroit’s etc… but all of them in one lineup without a centerpiece leave something to be desired. Many believe Pablo Sandoval could be that centerpiece, but that’s based on a 145 AB cup of coffee and white-hot spring. They got 39 HRs in 2008 from the power positions (1B and corner OF), lowest in the NL and tied for the lowest in all of baseball (Toronto)…

Trading your superstar as Colorado did with Matt Holliday this offseason signals that the upcoming season might not be a contending one. Uncertainty seems to surround the offense as Hawpe is the only consistent performer over the past three seasons. Atkins is in three-year decline, Troy Tulowitzki suffered an injury-riddled sophomore campaign, Todd Helton hasn’t topped 20 HR since 2004 and injuries took his average below .300 for the first time since his 1997 93 AB cup of coffee. Aaron Cook is as steady as they come on the mound and finally used that high GB rate to get below 4.00 ERA last year. Ubaldo Jimenez is a talented youngster who also uses the groundball to his benefit, but can’t seem to get above the desired 2.0 K:BB rate you like to see from starting pitchers. Jorge de la Rosa will emerge as a capable #3 and catcher Chris Iannetta has 30 HR power.

Playoffs –
Los Angeles over New York
Chicago over Atlanta
Chicago over Los Angeles

Awards –
MVP: David Wright
Cy Young: Javier Vazquez
Rookie of the Year: Andrew McCutchen

World Series –
Boston over Chicago

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