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Monday: 08.11.2008

The Next Tier: 2009

I woke up to a couple of emails asking me who’s knocking on the door of the first round, so I’ll cover a second group that I really like again in 2009. It is another group of 12 that could represent the second round, but they won’t be in any particular order. (Note: no pitchers are included as I usually leave them to their own listing. When I do a composite Top 50 or 100, pitchers will be included)

The guy mentioned all but once in the six emails I received about the list was Matt Holliday and I completely understand. The guy is a beast, but the uncertainty surrounding his whereabouts for 2009 have me reticent to place him in that first tier. From 2005-2007, the difference in OPS between home & away was almost 300 points. This year, it’s just over 200. He’s hardly a shmuck outside of Coors Field, but he definitely gains a boatload of his value from making his home there. If and when he’s guaranteed to play 2009 in Coors Field, he’ll jump into that top level.

Many are quick to say Lance Berkman can’t sustain what he is doing this year, but I don’t believe that to be true. First of all, he’s well off of his torrid pace from the late spring/early summer so he’s pacing to a .333-128-31-109-20 season right now. The speed is only real anomaly in this bunch and it’d be wise to pay for a max of 10 steals and enjoy anything else as gravy. Meanwhile the rest of the stat line is plenty attainable. With one home run and five double since the All-Star Break, it is looking like the Home Run Derby has claimed another victim. He’s a bankable .300-100-30-100 and that’s very valuable.

Speaking of reliable numbers, Berkman’s teammate Carlos Lee is as steady as they get. The speed dipped a bit this season, but prior to 2008 he had logged five straight double-digit SB seasons. Meanwhile, there probably isn’t a steadier .300-100-30-100 trend-line on the market. He will turn 33 during next season, but age doesn’t sap the skills he has proven to own since joining the elite ranks.

Basically an outfield version of Brandon Phillips right down to the inability to take a walk, Corey Hart is another across-the-board talent you love to have in your lineup. Some plate patience would give him several more chances on base to push that stolen base total above 30. He will be 26-years old at the beginning of next season, his third full one in the majors, and he should be ready to bust out completely.

Are you getting tired of seeing five category guys yet? Sorry, I just love laying the foundation for a fantasy team by getting a good bit of everything. Nick Markakis is on pace to raise his OPS by nearly 40 points from last year by season’s end and the huge increase in plate discipline (already more walks than all of last season) points to a superstar in the making. He will be 25-years old next year and he might be ready to reach that 30-home run plateau. Keeper league rebuilders would be well-served to do all they can to make Markakis their anchor.

It’s impossible not to be disappointed by the utter collapse of B.J. Upton‘s power this season. In his final season of second base-eligibility, many believed a 30-home run season was in order after he whacked 24 in 474 at-bats last year. Instead, he’s become a punchless speed demon showing a surprising amount of plate patience. He could top 50 stole bases, but will struggle to reach double digits in home runs while almost assuredly walking 100+ times. I think lingering shoulder pain has sapped his power and it won’t fully return until 2009. He will turn 24 in 10 days and should be undervalued heading into 2009. A 20-30 season is very possible.

It is tough to follow up a 50-home run/119-RBI season and barring a huge August/September surge, Prince Fielder‘s encore will be somewhere in the 35-95 range. Make no mistake that there is nothing wrong with that, but undoubtedly a disappointment to his fantasy owners. He is just getting going though and if his value takes even the slightest bump due to this season, then you need to be ready to pounce. He has similar run production to Ryan Howard without being the horrific batting average anchor.

There was/is no bigger bust in 2008 than the reigning National League MVP, Jimmy Rollins. Like Upton, his power disappeared. Unlike Upton, he has a much stronger track record of the power making the disappearance more startling. He, again like Upton, is almost assuredly playing through nagging injuries that go unnoticed by the fans yet tremendously impact a player’s numbers. His speed hasn’t faded and he hit .286 or better in every month except June so you can be confident in a 2009 rebound. He is another former first rounder that is almost sure to be undervalued which just creates a great opportunity for his 2009 owners. Don’t be the shortsighted one at the table that focuses too heavily on a disappointing 2008 campaign.

His first season in his “prime” didn’t go according to plan for Carl Crawford and now he’s going to miss some time with a hand injury further damaging his 2008 totals. His problem this year were the declines in speed and average. He doesn’t blow you away with his R, HR and RBI totals, but the given 50-.300 is where sets himself apart. Even if he were playing, he was only pacing to 34-.273. That Rays offense should get even better in 2009 and Crawford will be a beneficiary as well as a catalyst to that success. He might not be a 50-base stealer anymore, but he could be headed for 100 runs, 20 home runs and 100 runs batted in if he settles in at the 3-hole behind Upton and ahead of Evan Longoria.

Don’t tell Adrian Gonzalez that he plays in a pitcher’s paradise. Enjoying a breakout season this year, Gonzalez is establishing himself as a reliable .285-30-100 first baseman despite playing half of his games in the cavernous Petco Park. Granted, he does a lot more damage on the road so you could only imagine what he’d be if he played in a neutral or hitter-friendly yard. He’ll be 27 early in the 2009 season and he isn’t terribly flashy, but his kind of consistency is great as he has one sub-.800 OPS month in his past seven and just four in his last 15. The potential for 35-120 is there as his 2008 pace shows, but the lack of a huge downside gives him underrated appeal.

My pick for the 2008 NL MVP was shipped back to the AL before he had a chance to make a miraculous run to prove me right, but Mark Teixeira is another reliable that does pretty darn well even in “disappointment” seasons. Everyone is waiting for the 40-home run season again and he would have likely given us another one last year had he been able to get the 644 at-bats he had during the 43-HR campaign of 2005, but his 30-105 in less than 500 at-bats was sufficient. Two common themes amongst this group have been 5-category guys and reliable production. Big Teix is the latter to the point where you can add .285-100-30-100 to your team’s bottom line once you acquire him. He is even a bigger stud in OBP leagues because he knows how to draw a walk.

I have gone round and round with myself about whether to put Derrek Lee, Carlos Beltran or somebody else all together here in the last spot. I know Lee isn’t a 40-home run hitter like his 2005 season, but at this point I’m not sure he’s a 30-home run hitter, either. Meanwhile, Beltran is pacing for a huge power drop in 2008. He is 11 off of his 2007 total despite almost 70 more at-bats. When you’re putting up 35-25 or 40-20, it’s easy to overlook a .275 batting average, but not when you’re headed for 20-25. If Milton Bradley could stay healthy, I would have no reservations about putting him here… alas he can’t. If we were talking strictly OBP leagues, entertaining the idea of Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn here would be a no-brainer… alas we’re not. I’ll go with someone I advocated heavily this past off-season, Alfonso Soriano. At 32, he is hardly old and his pace of .299-70-28-76-15 in 399 at-bats is just amazing. Hitting leadoff eats into the RBI totals, but it is tough to find flaws in 100-30-80-25.

Enjoy!

Posted in All BbP Originals, Analysis, Data & News, Draft, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Top 100 | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 08.10.2008

The 1st Round: 2009

With just under two months left in the season, there won’t be a great deal of change on the fantasy landscape that will thoroughly impact how I view the first round for the 2009 season. Obviously there can and likely will be plenty of change over the late fall and winter months, but for now I wanted to look at how this season has impacted the top of my rankings for next year thus far. For contextual purposes, let’s see who I had in the top 12 heading into the season. Here are the first 12 from my last Top 100 Rankings posted on February 26th:

I’m not too upset by that list. Jimmy Rollins has been an all-out bust, but I don’t think there were any glaring indicators within his statistics that suggested this kind of collapse from excellence. After all, he’s the reigning National League MVP. He has missed 25 games, but even pacing him out with those 25 games would still point to a huge drop-off from last year’s production.

Missing 50 games has kept Alfonso Soriano from justifying the 7th overall rating, but his production while playing has backed up my ranking. I saw him being underrated in a lot of drafts and auctions and his end of season numbers will likely lead those that undervalued him to believe it was the right move even though his depressed numbers are due to his missing 31% of the season. He could be a great star value going into next year.

The fervor about a potential Albert Pujols injury definitely impacted my rankings, but how could it not? There was hardly a neutral report about it let alone a positive one. No one expected the Cardinals to hang around in the race like they have and as such, it was feared that any sign at injury would send Pujols to the operating table rather than gutting it out for a 5th place team.

I chickened out a bit by not ranking Grady Sizemore in that top 12 despite how much I love his game. I took him 8th and 10th in two separate leagues this past March, but I think I was scared off by the lack of runs batted in because he was a leadoff hitter. The mediocre batting average also gave me some pause.

Now onto next year. Who’s moved up? Who’s moved down?

Hanley Ramirez plays some pretty horrible shortstop, but thankfully that has no impact on fantasy owners across the world and even if he does move to a new position, he will still be shortstop-eligible for all of the 2009 season. His unreal numbers combined with that eligibility & his age (26 next year) give him the top spot. The speed and average are on pace to take a hit this year, but he still in the midst of a great season and entering his prime. The Marlins might do well to bat Ramirez third on a more regular basis next year despite the results during that experiment this year. Of course with only 56 at-bats, sample size caveats do apply.

Without a burst in the final six weeks, Alex Rodriguez will fail to reach 100+ runs batted in for the first time since 1997, his second full season. Of course, he is also on pace to register fewer than 500 at-bats for the first time in his career outside of his 1994 and 1995 cups of coffee with the Mariners. The fact that he still might go .315-100-35-100-20 is what makes him so amazing. I still wouldn’t fault someone for taking him 1st given his reliability.

As I mentioned earlier, the only reason Albert Pujols was rated 10th on my pre-season rankings was because I bought into the potential of huge time missed because of injury. Instead, Pujols has been absolutely amazing with incredible counting stats and .350 batting average that trails only Chipper Jones for the best in baseball. Pacing at 32 home runs for the second straight season suggests that the elbow might still be sapping his power as he had three straight 40+ home run seasons before 2007.

Going from 30-34 to 30-19 seems like a huge drop off, but it’s really not that bad. David Wright is quietly enjoying another superstar season despite being on pace to cut 44% from his stolen base total of 2007. Hitters in the 3-hole rarely run a TON so it’s not surprising to see Wright’s speed fade a bit since he’s been there all season. As his career trajectory continues upward, Wright’s already a bankable star in any format and the 2009 marks the beginning of his traditional prime.

I know the average lacks (as I noted above), but you just can’t ignore the total package that Grady Sizemore offers. Sizemore remains a 3-hole hitter trapped in a leadoff hitter’s body. For fantasy purposes, even though a move down in the lineup might improve his RBI totals, it’d almost certainly take away some speed (similar to Wright) so if I have him in a keeper league or want to acquire him for 2009, I’m hoping he remains the leadoff hitter for Cleveland. Like Wright, Sizemore enters his prime next year.

On May 31st, Chase Utley hit his 8th home run of that month and his 5th in six games; he has 10 since (including one today). For roto players, the composite stats are what matter most when the season ends, but head-to-head leaguers have to be troubled by his power outage. He is on pace for 40 home runs, but that would take 11 home runs over the final six weeks meaning he’d need to get back on track in a hurry. Mentioning his dip in power isn’t meant to take anything away from his season, he is still the gold standard for second base.

Is anyone playing better baseball than Miguel Cabrera since the beginning of July? Well there are a few in the conversation, but of players with 125+ plate appearances since then he is 1st in RBI, t3rd in HR, 9th in OPS and 11th in AVG. He was written off after a pedestrian (by his standards) first three months, but has used the last 2+ months to show why he is one of the game’s best hitters. With a full year in the American League under his belt, look for Cabrera to return to pre-2008 levels and perhaps beyond in 2009. I think he’ll be in contention for the MVP next year. That is 70% objective and 30% complete homerism as a Tigers fan.

I thought Ryan Braun would regress a bit this season given his free-swinging ways. Whoops. I still rated him 17th overall, but I short-changed him by a good bit. He has yet to slow down since bursting onto the scene in May of last year. As outfielder only next year, there might be a perception of a drop in value but given that third base is probably a bit deeper than the outfield it shouldn’t really dent his composite value. The flexibility is always nice regardless of the positions, especially in daily leagues, but losing shortstop eligibility from someone like Carlos Guillen is more damaging than Braun’s loss of 3B-qualification.

There has only been one standings-changer in stolen bases this year and it hasn’t been Jose Reyes. His 37 swipes are nothing to sneeze at, but Willy Tavares is (yes, I’m about to do this…) running away with the category with 51 despite over 100 fewer at-bats than Reyes and Ichiro. Even still, Reyes is pacing to improve his power and hitting totals with legitimate increases in home runs, RBIs and batting average. After three straight increases in stolen bases, he is on pace to drop 33% off of his 2007 total and since the bulk of his value is derived from that speed, he takes a hit in the rankings.

Would you believe that I took some heat in reader emails after ranking Ian Kinsler 53rd in my preseason Top 100? Hindsight is obviously 20/15, but I’m a sucker for power-speed combos and despite not playing more than 130 in either of his first two seasons, I liked what I had seen from Kinsler. Though his overall power is pacing to a drop (scheduled to match his 2007 20-HR total despite nearly 200 more at-bats), he could add as many as 50 points to his batting average if he holds pace as well as significant in the other counting stats aside from home runs. He will be 25 next year and could build upon this breakout campaign.

It has been a storybook leap into superstardom for Josh Hamilton, but as a former #1 overall pick, we knew he had the talent and potential. No one expected him to cash in that potential so quickly upon his return to the game after a tumultuous seven years from being drafted in 1999 by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays to 2007 as a Rule V pick of the Cincinnati Reds. Rating him 11th is due in large part to the fact this highest production category, RBIs, is one of the most volatile for hitters. I think he has erased the question marks about lack of experience and whether he can sustain production at the major league level. He could be headed for a series of .300-100-35-110-5 seasons similar to Carlos Lee with a little less speed.

Speaking of resurgent players, Brandon Phllips is putting the finishing touches on his third straight very good season after being put out to pasture in 2005. He hasn’t exactly battled the same sorts of things that Hamilton has, but he is another top prospect that initially flopped and was then written off. Still amazingly only 27, Phillips is in the throes of his prime and despite pacing down a few ticks in his production, he is a very reliable power-speed combination with legitimate 35-35 potential.

Feel free to leave comments on the initial 2009 Top 12. It’s sure to change and see adjustments in the lead up to next season, but this is my first look at how things are shaping up for the following season. October will see the first version of 2009’s Top 100 followed by several other lists over the winter.

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Friday: 07.18.2008

Another Handful of Predictions

Yesterday I offered some predictions for every team in the American League and today I’ll look at the National League:

National League East
Atlanta Braves – Slugger Mark Teixeira will mash another 13-15 home runs from now until season’s end giving him a fourth straight 30-HR season. This is filed under Atlanta because that’s obviously where he is right now. Though despite the prevailing thought that Atlanta is going to get rid him, there are also reports to the contrary… Maligned outfielder Jeff Francoeur will catch fire for a good month and a half at some point in the 2nd half and still end up with >20 HRs.

Florida Marlins – Cody Ross continues to hit well with eight home runs and a .280+ batting average in the 2nd half. Don’t forget that he hit 12 home runs and had a 1.064 OPS in 173 at-bats last year… Outfielder Jeremy Hermida turns it up in the 2nd half, as he did in 2007, and posts .800+ OPS… Scott Olsen will frustrate owners with his inconsistency, but post a second half ERA right around the 3.84 he put together prior to the break. Spot-starting or cutting your losses on Olsen after a string of shaky starts is a bad move. Ride him until October…

New York Mets – To hear some talk about his season, you’d think that Johan Santana was 4-11 with a 4.50 ERA instead of 8-7 with a 3.10 ERA. He was blown up a bit by the Reds in his first post-break start and I think it opens up a prime buy-low opportunity (low relative to Johan). I like him for a sub-3.00 ERA with 10 wins… John Maine should rack up some wins, but at a >4.00 ERA cost to your team… Carlos Beltran quietly put up a solid first half, but things will get even better in the second half with a .900+ OPS and a 25 HR-25 SB tally.

Philadelphia Phillies – With that high-octane offense, Pedro Feliz is left to do his thing in obscurity and he’ll match his first half output with another 12 home runs from here on out… The surprise in that Phillies’ offense has been the fact that Jimmy Rollins is having a pedestrian season by his standards. He won’t reach his 2007 heights of excellence, but an .850+ OPS in the second half is in store… Brett Myers will return from his stint in the minors and give the Phillies a sub-4.25 ERA in their rotation.

Washington Nationals – The season has been a pretty huge bust from an offensive standpoint as it seems anytime someone starts producing for the Nats, he gets hurt shortly thereafter. Austin Kearns finally appears to be healthy and should enjoy a solid, if unspectacular second half with eight home runs and a .750+ OPS… Who would have thought that the Nationals would have four rosterable starting pitchers? Jason Bergmann, John Lannan, Odalis Perez and Tim Redding have been legit middle/back of the rotation starters. Lannan and Bergmann will be the best bets out of that group going forward.

National League Central
Chicago Cubs – Two of the biggest surprises for the Cubs this season have been Ryan Dempster and Geovany Soto. Dempster moved back to the rotation after serving as a closer for several years and has produced great results with a 3.25 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. That said, I suspect he’ll get bumped around the rest of the way to the tune of a 4.00+ ERA… Soto has also been amazing with 16 home runs and a .876 OPS in his debut campaign. His second half won’t be as fruitful as he will post <.800 OPS.

Cincinnati Reds – This was supposed to be a breakout season for Edwin Encarnacion and a strong second half will allow him to deliver on that preseason promise. He will set a career high in home runs with his next one and he has .293 or better in every month but May, so he is going to get the average above that career .272 mark. An .800+ OPS and 10+ HRs are in store for EE the rest of the way… With a completely dominant first half, Edinson Volquez all but assured himself a great season, but non-keeper leaguers should sell high as Volquez is going to start getting punished for that colossal walk rate (4.3p9). He will have an ERA north of 4.00 in his remaining starts.

Houston Astros – Starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez hasn’t COMPLETELY fixed his home/road splits issues, but he has greatly improved them and it’s benefited him very nicely with a 3.31 ERA/1.29 WHIP in 81.7 innings. Expect more of the same the rest of the way with a <3.50 ERA as the new ace of the Astros. Hunter Pence has been maddeningly inconsistent this year, but his end of season numbers will look alright come October. Look for a second half .800+ OPS and 10 home runs.

Milwaukee Brewers – Prince Fielder set the bar pretty high for himself with 50 home runs last year which is why his 16 HR and .845 OPS from the first half is “disappointing”, but he will make amends with a .950+ OPS and 20 home runs from here on out… Dave Bush is putting it all together lately with his very strong recent stretch. His first half numbers of 4.39 ERA/1.15 WHIP resemble the 4.41 ERA/1.14 WHIP season totals from 2006. He could be amazing if he strand some runners (just 66% LOB% this season) and that’s why owners looking at his WHIP expect great things. The LOB problem has always been an issue and given his lengthy record with it, he will be turning back into a pumpkin before too long. Sell high.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Xavier Nady is a classic fade player with an OPS 98 points lower after the break in the past three seasons (.831 to .733), but I have a feeling he’s poised to stay strong during this second half with an .875+ OPS. An .875 mark would still be a 30-point drop, but definitely within reason and good enough to avoid that perennial fade… One thing you can usually count on is a good batting average from Freddy Sanchez which makes his .230 from this season all the more disappointing. He will get right in the second half with a .300+ AVG from here on out… This next one is a gut feeling with absolutely no statistical backing behind it, but I think Ian Snell will have a sub-4.50 ERA the rest of the way. I know 4.50 is hardly Cy Young material, but considering that he is currently at 5.83, it’s a marked improvement.

St. Louis Cardinals – Though not expected back until August, Adam Wainwright is going to give his fantasy owners a strong homestretch push with a <3.25 ERA and six wins… Several people seem to be waiting for the other shoe to drop with respect to Ryan Ludwick‘s Cinderella season, but I don’t think he’s going to fade. He’s got another 15 home runs and a .900+ OPS in the tank.

National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks – Chris Young‘s follow up to a great 2007 season has been a pretty big bust despite 13 home runs thus far. He will make some necessary adjustments to enjoy a .900+ OPS and 15+ HRs the rest of the way… Chris Snyder, recovering from a testicular fracture (OUCH!!), is expected back next week and I think he will double his home run total to 14 by season’s end.

Colorado Rockies – It’s been a decidedly different season for the Rockies after their surprise appearance in the World Series last year, but they are still just seven games out. Ubaldo Jimenez has developed into a good starter with declining ERAs in every month of the season. He will be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher and pair with Aaron Cook for a legit 1-2 punch in Denver… Brad Hawpe has been great since coming back from the disabled list with 12 home runs in 129 at-bats. I expect him to grab 15 more home runs the rest of the year.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Despite seemingly loaded with talent, the Dodgers have been completely anemic on offense this season. Look for the offense to heat up during the dog days of summer with Matt Kemp clubbing 10+ HRs, Jeff Kent slugging 12 of his own and Andre Ethier with another 10 while all three post a better than .800 OPS.

San Diego Padres – Speaking of anemic offenses, the Padres fit that classification as well despite how great Adrian Gonzalez has been this season. Scott Hairston and Kevin Kouzmanoff have displayed some power of their own, but I like Khalil Greene, usually a reliable power threat if nothing else, to muscle up for 12+ home runs and rookie phenom Chase Headley to smack eight or more as well. They could put together a little run if they bats heat up. No one has done anything to establish themselves out West, so perhaps the Padres turn around their 2008 season and challenge a little bit.

San Francisco Giants – Some are labeling this team a surprise team, but they are 40-57 so despite how great their top three of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez have been on the mound, this is still a pretty weak team. Ray Durham has already been dealt to Milwaukee and Randy Winn may be out very soon as well since this team has no need for the veterans. I think they’ll get some youthful exuberance and play some near .500 ball with their trio of starters notching eight wins apiece. Eugenio Velez is back up and I think this time he’ll deliver and steal 15+ bags.

Posted in Analysis, Data & News, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 02.26.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: Version 3.0

Plenty of movement in the third version of my Top 100, but it is the same 100 from early February. At the top is the expected bump that Albert Pujols takes because of the increased injury worries. I’m absolutely a huge fan of his, but I can’t say the elbow isn’t troubling enough to take a 5-spot tumble. The four others behind him obviously get the one spot move and I also flip-flopped Carl Crawford and Grady Sizemore. Sizemore is more complete with the proven three-year base of power, while Crawford’s power remains filed under that fanciful “p” word. Granted, Crawford does offer more speed, but speed is more readily available than power on the landscape at large, so Sizemore gets the nod. Those were the only moves within the Top 20.

There was a bit of shifting amongst the bottom five of the next 20 with Carlos Guillen and Manny Ramirez being the beneficiaries with two and three spot jumps, respectively. Nothing too groundbreaking, but just some run of the mill shuffling that will continue to occur as I read more and Spring Training kicks into full force. In the 41-60 block, there was a lot of minor shuffling as a result of big moves down for Hunter Pence (7 spots) and Shane Victorino (11 spots). As I mentioned earlier, speed is more plentiful than originally thought making a jack-rabbit like Victorino a bit less appealing when viewed against the likes of mashers like Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe and Hideki Matsui. Pence’s drop was a combination of his journey through a plate glass window and the fact that I may have rated him a bit too highly out of the gate given the lack of sample size to judge him.

A group of middle infielders in the 61-80 group took a tumble with Michael Young taking the brunt of it (12 spot drop). Aaron Hill and Edgar Renteria joined him with four spot slides. Having been through more drafts since the last update, I’m seeing scarcity in the outfield if you don’t act early and often, so Vernon Wells and Jason Bay are beneficiaries. The same outfield scarcity issue took control of the 81-100 block as all but five players moved spots. Delmon Young, Matt Kemp, Jeff Francoeur and Andruw Jones all enjoyed strong gains in the latest Top 100.

Juan Pierre was the only outfielder in this group that took a hit and again, it is because his key asset (immense speed) is no longer as rare on the fantasy landscape. Rickie Weeks and Alex Gordon both saw upticks as they leapt over a group primarily contained of pitchers. Felix Hernandez took his second straight dip in the Top 100, but it’s not because I dislike him in the least. I actually like him a good bit in 2008 and no starting pitchers passed him this time around, instead it was the aforementioned hitters.

And now, for version 3.0:

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Friday: 02.1.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: Version 2.0

I did some significant re-working to the initial Top 100, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given how early the first version was released. My most egregious omission is doubly painful since I’m such a huge proponent of this guy, but fear not, Ian Kinsler debuts in v2.0 with a very solid ranking. Given how much I love speed-combo guys and how many times during the capsules I mentioned that 2B wasn’t the barren wasteland it once was, I chalk it up to little more than a ball-drop on my part.

Only one other debut as Cole Hamels cracked the Top 100 with a vengeance checking in at #85. The two that paid for Hamels’ and Kinsler’s entries were Mike Lowell and Jim Thome. I have got nothing against either player and they both offer a pretty solid set of numbers, but one of the key factors with a list like this is with a lot of these guys, you are looking for them to improve upon a foundation that they have previously laid out. Now that isn’t the case with every guy because I still left plenty of oldies on the list, but just think about the four guys in question, are you taking Hamels and Kinsler or Lowell and Thome?

Some big tumblers within this first update were Miguel Tejada as the steroids issue looks like it could be clamping down on him, also I bumped Daisuke Matsuzaka quite a bit not because I’ve soured on his ability and projections for 2008, but more so because I like others ahead of him after further review into the starting pitching landscape. Aaron Hill is a favorite of mine coming into the season, but I feel I was a little overzealous with his initial ranking, so I tempered things and bumped him down to #73.

Anyway enough chatter, here is version 2.0 of my Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

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Friday: 01.18.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: 1-20

Phew, I made it. After 11,667 words, the initial compilation of the top 100 fantasy baseball players is complete! Below are the final 20 pieces to the puzzle that is filled with familiar names, but not necessarily in the expected spots. I am confident with the rankings, though I have no doubt that many of you will have different takes on whom belongs where. I have tried to show my reasoning for each player’s position in the 100-word (or so) blurbs written about each player, but if you want more explanation for why someone is above or below someone, then please don’t hesitate to contact me at the email address found in the closing below. And now, the top 20:

20. Carlos Beltran – New York Mets, OF (31):
Beltran figured out lefties last year (.304), but then righties gave him trouble (.265). He put up a brilliant second half and though he is on the other of 30 years old, he is still a bona fide superstar. The 40-home run power of 2006 is unlikely to return, but 30-20 with 100 runs scored and driven in, each. Peripheral numbers point to a near .300 average, but he has yet to deliver that since he headed to the Big Apple. Look for him to finally get the extra base hits to reach the appropriate level and give his owners all five categories.

19. Johan Santana – Minnesota Twins (for now), SP (29):
He is still the best pitcher in the game regardless of which team he is on at the start of the season. Owners may have been disappointed by the 3.33 earned run average and the win-loss record, but they are likely idiots. He was still 7th in the American League in ERA and 2nd in strikeouts with the 15 wins good enough for 6th. If there was anything to worry about, it was the 33 home runs that was worst in the league, but then you consider he was still able to put up those numbers in spite of the bombs and the worry goes away quickly. Don’t get cute and try to take any other pitcher before him.

18. David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox, DH (32):
Offers the insane raw power of an Adam Dunn, but includes a sparkling .300 batting average. Despite losing 19 home runs off of his total from ’06, his power index didn’t match the drop meaning significant ground was not lost. The three steals tripled his career high making him a true 5-category threat! I couldn’t even type that with a straight face. He is, however, an excellent 4-category threat meaning you can safely ignore the limitations on position eligibility and take the huge numbers.

17. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers, 3B (24):
You couldn’t possibly script a better debut campaign if you tried. Braun’s first season was absolutely flawless from a fantasy baseball perspective… unless of course your league counts defense, in which case, yikes! I expect a slight regression, but a sophomore slump is unlikely based on last year. If he drops significantly anywhere, I could see it in the batting average, but he should still hit around .280. The age, power and speed at third base won’t be on the board for long and unlikely to be had cheaply, but the numbers justify the cost.

16. Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies, 1B (28):
Puts up the numbers of David Ortiz with the ridiculously raw power, but trades a few batting average points for position eligibility and a few extra years. Figured out lefties during the MVP campaign of 2006, but lost it again last year, which was a big cause for the dip down to .268. If he jumps back up to into the .280s, he is back to being a 4-category guy. Even if not, pay for 50 home runs and enjoy!

15. Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers, 1B (23):
Wow! How excited should we be about a 50-home run hitter that is just 23 years old? Extremely. If he continues to improve, we could see our first 60+ home run season since Barry Bonds’ 73 in 2001. And there’s more, he also has legitimate potential to hit .300 with the power. I realize that players are not completely in control of this, but I want to see more runs batted in out of Fielder before ranking him closer to the top 10.

14. Mark Teixeira – Atlanta Braves, 1B (28):
Big Tex left Texas for the National League and his power returned! He hit a home run per 22 at-bats with the Rangers in 78 games and then one per 12 at-bats with the Braves in 54 games. Had he not missed 30 games, he would have paced out to 37 home runs, but his Atlanta pace translates to 51 home runs. The 2006 power failure (by his standards) is the aberration, so the rejuvenation in Atlanta makes Tex an elite power source once again.

13. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds, 2B (26):
Remember when Phillips was one of baseball’s top prospects? It took him awhile, but he now cashing in on the potential and he is still only 26!!! He has back-to-back career years that are surprising because he had been left for dead, but not because he doesn’t have the talent to sustain. He is an excellent 5-category star at a relatively thin position. I’m giving Chase Utley the nod as the top second basemen only because of a deeper track record, but that may change as the winter evolves. Stay tuned.

12. Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians, OF (25):
I was huge on Sizemore for 2007, going so far as to name him my American League MVP. Well things didn’t quite pan out that way (though he did notch 15 MVP points), but he still had a great year. He gave back some home runs and average (despite figuring out lefties) in exchange for 11 more stolen bases, which was essentially a wash. I don’t think he is close to his ceiling with a 30-30 season on the horizon and possibly even this season. He is a true fantasy baseball cornerstone, both now and in the future.

11. Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays, OF (26):
His past four seasons are a model for consistency and still Crawford is often somewhat underrated. He has the ability to add 20 home runs to the ridiculous speed and he nearly did in 2006. Watch some of those doubles get over the wall in 2008 as he creeps near that 20-mark again. Eventually, the speed will fade as he goes for more power, but it won’t happen this season. There is nothing to dislike about what Crawford brings to the table, bid high.

And down the stretch we come…

10. Matt Holliday – Colorado Rockies, OF (28):
Prior to the 2007 season, I dealt a $20 Holliday for $5 Jeremy Hermida, $5 Troy Tulowitzki and $9 Dave Bush. Whoops. He nearly outhit the two, trailing them by six home runs and 25 runs batted in while crushing them batting average: .293 to .340, plus he only used up one roster spot! I mentioned it in Tulowitzki’s profile and I’ll do so again, who cares if he benefits greatly from playing in Coors Field? His OPS on the road is .860 against 1.157 at home, but all of the numbers count equally meaning Holliday is a fantasy baseball beast. A .300-40-130 season could be in store for his owners in 2008.

9. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers, 3B (25):
I think the trade to the Detroit Tigers pumped him up five-to-seven spots as he joins one of the league’s best lineups and leaves one of the worst. He is reported to be in shape after weight was a problem in ’07 meaning he could be ready for an MVP season in Motown. The lineup around him will take care of the runs scored and batted in, while he does the rest en route to a .310-120-40-150-5 season. Can you believe he is only 25? Dang, it’s good to be a Tigers fan!

8. Alfonso Soriano – Chicago Cubs, OF (32):
I can’t figure out why early mock drafts are seemingly down on Soriano in 2008. In one draft, I saw him slip to 17th, while I got him 12th in a 20-team early mock. He is just two years removed from the 40-40 season. Now, I don’t mention that because I see another in ’08 because he simply won’t run enough in Chicago, especially if he drops in lineup, but rather to point out that he is still a superstar. He dropped 33-19 in 135 games, which is a 40-23 pace in a full season. He has a very reliable skill set that is hard not to love. Even at 32, a 30-30 season is possible.

7. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies, 2B (29):
A broken hand derailed another brilliant season, but he rebounded nicely leaving no warning signs moving into this season. The speed is declining, even if you extrapolate the steals over the entire season, but that is more than acceptable when you consider a .300-30-100 from second base. As I mentioned earlier, I am leaning towards giving Brandon Phillips the nod as the best second basemen, but Utley’s stronger track record, more power potential and higher run producing ceiling (125 RBIs a real possibility) allow him to hang onto the spot… for now.

6. Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies, SS (29):
I didn’t create this list to pat myself on the back (see: Holliday, Matt), but in my main NL-Only league, my co-owner and I made Rollins our primary, big-salary target. Well imagine if we had kept Holliday, we might have finished higher than 6th place. He put everything together for an MVP season, managing a .296 average despite setting a major-league record for at-bats with 716. He gave his owners a 30-40 season from shortstop while scoring nearly 140 runs and driving nearly 100 more. It was a career-year, to be sure, but plenty of this is sustainable so don’t expect a huge drop off in ’08. He is going to score another boatload of runs with two teammates of his in the top 20, and still another in the top 50. Scariest thing? There are two more shortstops to come.

5. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals, 1B (28):
He had more nagging injuries than the guy in the game Operation which no doubt led to the “down” year he labored through in 2007. He played through the injuries (158 games played) meaning they weren’t serious, but they clearly took their toll as he dropped below 40 home runs for the first time in five years and didn’t offer his customary handful of steals (two all year). All of this could result in an undervalued (relative to his superstar colleagues) Pujols, which makes him an even stronger buy.

4. David Wright – New York Mets, 3B (25):
If your cornerstone draft pick or auction buy flops in April, look at Wright’s 2007 April before giving up: 90 at-bats, 22 hits (.244 average), zero home runs, six runs batted and three stolen bases. Ouch. Of course, he ended with a .325 average, 30 home runs, 107 runs batted in and 34 stolen bases. It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon and Wright’s MVP-worthy season is one of hundreds of examples of that idiom. Had he shown up in April, he might have notched baseball’s second 40-40 season in a row. Third base is pretty deep, but things get started with Wright and his Big Apple counterpart, who we’ll get to in a moment.

3. Jose Reyes – New York Mets, SS (24):
The most interesting thing about Reyes and his teammate from a moment ago is that they are 24 and 25, respectively. That is absurd. Reyes has developed some legitimate patience allowing him to get on base more, resulting in a career-high for stolen bases. He showed the power potential in 2006, but a 1st half power outage kept him from the 20-home run mark. The absurd speed alone makes him worth the premium paid, but the enormous runs scored totals and potential to give his owner 20 bombs nets him this top 3 ranking.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins, SS (24):
It is frightening to this that he could legitimately post a 35-60 season with a huge average and solid team-dependent offerings. For now, focus on the .300-30-50 season he delivered in 2007 despite a torn left labrum. He received surgery and he will be ready for Spring Training, but potential effects from the surgery is enough to hold back on predicting the 35-60 season, instead let’s sit back and just pray for it. Miguel Cabrera’s departure could sap some runs from his total, but a capable cast could pick up the slack and keep him near the 115-mark. With Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell successful in Boston, this trade is shaping up to truly be an even one.

1. Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees, 3B (32):
Erased doubts that he is the game’s best player with a remarkable MVP campaign in 2007 and nothing suggests another such season isn’t forthcoming. It seems that it wasn’t a matter of whether or not A-Rod could put up those numbers, but rather whether or not he wanted to put up those numbers. He might have even posted a .320+ average had he continued his previous success against left-handers. The only possible scary thing about him is that even-numbered years haven’t been kind to him in his Yankee tenure, but that is more coincidental than anything else, bid high and bid confidently.

So there it is, folks, my top 100 fantasy baseball players. As most everything is, it will be subject to change, but I am confident with the initial offering. I worked and re-worked the opening list several times, so I will almost assuredly have four or five changes ready for you when version 2.0 is released later. For now, I hope you have enjoyed the time and effort that I put into the list and write-ups of each player. I do appreciate the feedback I have received thus far and welcome all of it. Some of you have sent specific questions about trades and draft picks for mocks that you’re in that don’t pertain to players in the top 100 and I’m completely fine with that. I aim to respond to any and all questions within 24 hours of their receipt. If you prefer email over commenting and don’t have the address it is as follows: sporer (at sign) gmail.com

One final treat, here are three breakdowns of the Top 100 by the numbers:

Posted in All BbP Originals, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Top 100 | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 01.17.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: 21-40

I’m almost done with the complete release of my first version of the Top 100 with the second 20 found below. If I am unable to finish the final 20 by tomorrow night, then it might be delayed until Sunday because I will be away Friday & Saturday and I work 8-5 on Sunday. Even still, it’s only mid-January, so the pace is still fine. Thank you to all who have emailed and commented about the list. I have no problem with any and all comments, even if you disagree with a particular player’s inclusion and/or slotting. Here are players 21 through 40 (age in parentheses, as always):

40. Aramis Ramirez – Chicago Cubs, 3B (29):
Anytime you can post you put up 26 home runs and 101 runs batted in despite only 132 games, you’re pretty damn good. In fact, he has averaged exactly 30 home runs in each of his seven full seasons. Throw in a .300 average and you have one of the most elite third basemen in the game. He is still on the right said of 30 (but hits that age in late June of this season) and with a clean bill of health he could easily reach 35 home runs again.

39. Travis Hafner – Cleveland Indians, DH (30):
Hafner broke the four-year trend of improving power and run production with his worst year as a full-time player. I bet there are quite a few guys that would like their worst year to be 24 home runs and 100 runs batted in. He had real trouble getting under the ball with his highest groundball rate ever at 48%, which sapped the power as he lost 18 home runs off of his 2007 total. Obviously with this ranking, I am predicting a full rebound and I like him to return to the 35-40 home run area. The DH-only aspect of Hafner scares some off, but you draft talent and numbers and worry about position flexibility later.

38. Carlos Guillen – Detroit Tigers, SS/1B (32):
The move to first base is supposed to be a knee-saving move for Guillen and the Tigers and that clearly bodes well for his fantasy owners, too. He puts up corner-like numbers with shortstop eligibility making him an excellent fantasy option. He is no doubt the 4th-best shortstop behind the three R’s (Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins) and if he is able to play his third straight season of 150+ games, he will almost certainly put up 20-15 with a near .300 average.

37. Derrek Lee – Chicago Cubs, 1B (32):
In all of the mock drafts I have seen thus far, Lee is probably one of the most underrated stars going a round or two later than I think he is worth. He looked like the Lee of old in the second half with 16 home runs. Even in a down year for his power (22 total home runs), he was still one of the league’s best hitters with a .317 average. I like a full rebound to the career-high 2005 levels especially in that lineup.

36. Corey Hart – Milwaukee Brewers, OF (26):
I am pretty sure I mentioned early on in the rankings that I love power-speed combos. With playing time in hand, he broke out with 24 home runs and 23 stolen bases. But he didn’t stop there; he included a .295 average, 86 runs scored and 81 runs driven in making him a 5-category dream. Though he got significantly less patient in the 2nd half (4% walk rate against 10% in the 1st half), there really aren’t any red flags that suggest Hart was a fluke.

35. Adam Dunn – Cincinnati Reds, OF (28):
He has four straight 40-home run seasons under his belt include three in a row of exactly 40. Everyone knows his shortcomings with the batting average, but last year was a step forward at .264 and if he can avoid being the complete anchor in average that he was in ’05 and ’06 (.247 and .234, respectively) then he will be underrated. Bankable power like his makes him worth a pretty penny/top draft pick and if he can reach the levels that his expected batting averages suggest (.275+ area), his value will be just behind David Ortiz.

34. Victor Martinez – Cleveland Indians, C (29):
It seems that catcher is always thin for fantasy baseball purposes and it isn’t particularly surprising. It is the most demanding position in the game and teams will readily accept a light-hitting catcher that does everything else well. And even when catchers can hit well, they eventually move to another position to keep that bat fresh. Martinez is starting to make that transition with 30 games at 1st base last year, but for now, he is a catcher. With career highs in home runs (25) and runs batted in (114), he put up numbers fit for a corner infielder giving him enormous value at catcher. A .303 career average makes him a true three-category stud at the toughest position to fill.

33. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles, 2B (30):
Roberts is a speed-average guy at a moderately scarce position. That is it, nothing more, nothing less. Unfortunately, he seems to want to be a 20-home run guy as well, but if that were going to be the case, it seems it would come at the expense of his batting average, as evidenced by the 2nd half of last year. Many are worried about the run scoring opportunities on the Tejada-less team, but I think he is good for at least 85 even if the O’s are as bad as advertised. However, it isn’t unrealistic to see another 100-run season given the ability of the hitters behind him (particularly the 3 M’s: Nick Markakis, Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora). His value gets a significant boost if he is traded to the Chicago Cubs.

32. Russell Martin – Los Angeles Dodgers, C (25):
I have already covered how rare it is to get much offensive production from the catcher spot of your roster, but it is rarer still to get speed with the production. Enter Russell Martin. He did 10-10 in limited duty in 2006 before stepping it up big time in 2007 with 19 and 21. Oh yeah, he also hit .293 and had 83 runs scored & runs batted in! At 25, he doesn’t have any legitimate wear and tear yet.

31. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles, OF (24):
Many saw the potential after a strong 491 at-bats in 2006, but there wasn’t anything indicating the speed that came through in 2007 (18 stolen bases). He has the skills to be a .300-30-100 guy and the speed should stick around, especially on the O’s. Markakis’ run driving in potential will suffer if Roberts is dealt to the Cubs. Don’t speculate on the runs batted in portion of things and pay for the talent. After all, the Tampa Bay Rays were awful last year and two players were able to get over 90 runs batted in.

30. Alex Rios – Toronto Blue Jays, OF (27):
First it was the staph infection in 2006 and last year it was the Home Run Derby Curse, but two straight seasons have seen Rios’ power get derailed in second half. Even still, he has put together two straight excellent seasons of 5-category fantasy production. He has overtaken teammate Vernon Wells as the Blue Jays’ golden boy. I have no problem betting that he will put together two outstanding halves this season, because even when he doesn’t, he still puts up great numbers.

29. Magglio Ordonez – Detroit Tigers, OF (34):
Remember when the Tigers first acquired Ordonez as an ailing free agent that nobody wanted? Sure, they overpaid (five years, $75 million). I’m pretty sure even they would admit it, but they weren’t in a position of strength. They had to bring in a big name to get things started. He used his first season with the Tigers (2005) to get his legs back under him before putting up back-to-back excellent seasons including last year’s that saw him earn his first batting title (.363). Back-to-back seasons of 155 and 157 games suggest Ordonez is plenty healthy and that those aiming to acquire him this year should feel confident in another full, productive season. When you consider how much Detroit improved that lineup, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Ordonez set a career-high for runs batted in for the second straight season.

28. Eric Byrnes – Arizona Diamondbacks, OF (32):
Where did the 50 stolen bases come from? Who cares? More importantly, are they here to stay? He doubled his 2006 total and at age 32, it is a longshot bet that he will maintain the upturn. That said, another 25-25 season isn’t out of reach. He plays like a 26 year old, which could get him in trouble if he hurts himself, but it means he will keep is green-light for stealing. When he hit .267 in ’06, his peripherals said he was better, but when he hit .286, the numbers said he was lucky. Pay for a mid .270s and enjoy the power-speed combo.

27. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays, 2B/OF (23):
Upton is an incredible talent that seemed to play a bit over his head in 2007. While a carbon copy repeat is unlikely, I don’t see the power and speed escaping him, I just wouldn’t bet on a .300 average. He has numbers good enough to put him in your outfield, but lucky for you, you won’t have to since he is eligible at second base. Another 20-20 season is likely, but pairing him with someone like Adam Dunn could be dangerous for batting average.

26. Lance Berkman – Houston Astros, 1B/OF (32):
Berkman is just about as steady as they come with a pretty bankable set of numbers and though the batting average was slightly off of his .300 career average at .278, it was merely due to a slow start that he corrected with a brilliant second half. Many owners probably jettisoned Berkman after a first half with just 11 home runs and a .261 average, but he rewarded the new owners as well as the patient ones with a robust 23 home runs and .293 average in the second half. Paying for another .300-30-100 season would be the smart play here.

25. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners, OF (34):
Ichiro remains the go-to guy for setting up a team’s batting average and speed at the beginning of a draft or auction. He is aging quite gracefully making another .300-30-100 season almost a guarantee. Of course, his 30-100 comes in steals and runs scored as opposed to the common implication of that idiom (30 home runs and 100 runs batted in).

24. Curtis Granderson – Detroit Tigers, OF (27):
The futility against lefties (.160) is troublesome, but you can’t deny the tremendous across-the-board production. If he has able to remedy that problem, then he could actually improve on his record breaking season of 2007. I doubt he will learn lefties overnight, but rather take a small step against them. Of course, he might not torch right-handers to the tune of .337 again, so his gain against lefties will likely offset a regression against righties. The improvements to the lineup offer Granderson the potential to lead the league in runs scored while putting up another 20-20 season.

23. Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels, OF (32):
It was another superstar season for Guerrero though he missed the 30-home run mark for the first time since 2003, despite the fact that he played a full season (unlike in ’03). His 125 runs driven in were good enough for 3rd in the American League and it isn’t out of line to foresee growth in ’08 given the improved lineup. Of course, that is largely dependent on the guys in front of him. Regardless of how they perform, Guerrero is sure to put up another season of All-Star numbers worthy of plenty of your auction dollars or one of your top picks.

22. Carlos Lee – Houston Astros, OF (31):
Like his partner in crime Lance Berkman, Lee is extraordinarily consistent with the numbers he brings to your team. Do you want .300-30-100-100-10? Buy or draft Lee. There is little to no variance across Lee’s stat lines over the past five years. In a project where the goal is to predict the future, as in fantasy baseball, a lack of statistical variance is absolutely a good thing. He also shows up daily for you, which again, is very nice since it eliminates pesky guesswork. Lee has played fewer than 150 games just once since his rookie season of 1999.

21. Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres, SP (26):
I have done 24 write-ups since I last had to flip to the pitcher sections of my stat books. And after this one, I’ll only need that section once more (for what’s-his-name?). The reigning National League Cy Young winner has a skillset you can’t help but fall in love with, but then you factor in his favorable home park and you have the recipe for success. Peavy nabbed the illustrious Pitching Triple Crown in the National League by leading wins, strikeouts and earned run average. Even more impressive, he led the majors in strikeouts, earned run average and WHIP for what is, in my view, a stronger and more impressive Pitching Triple Crown. He costs a lot to roster, but once you get him, you know your staff is set and you can immediately get back to building your lineup.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Player Focus, Predictions, Top 100 | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 01.14.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: 41-60

Apologies for the delay, but a hectic weekend was capped off very poorly with my girlfriend’s car being broken into! That said, we’re more than half way home on the initial top 100 with 41-60 listed below, as always in inverse order to enhance suspense ;):

60. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays, 2B (26):
Consider me a believer of the immense 2007 growth and not just because I was a benefactor as his owner in one league. His increases in line drive and fly ball rates were keys to the power surge (17 HR in ’07 after six the year before) and it didn’t cost him any batting average as he stayed at .291. His improvement along with others has turned second base from a fantasy wasteland into a position with a bit of depth. Nothing within his statistical set suggest 2007 was a fluke and at age 26, he might even see more growth.

59. Gary Sheffield – Detroit Tigers, DH (39):
A brilliant first half was derailed by nagging injuries in the second, but it didn’t completely “slow” him down as he ended up with 13 steals after the break giving him 22 for the year. If the off-season surgery fixed up the shoulder then he could put together the season that his first half was setting up. Run scoring and run producing opportunities will be plentiful in Motown, so I see a very productive season given health. The speed will be the X-factor and key to eliminating the downside of being DH-only.

58. Hideki Matsui – New York Yankees, OF (33):
Matsui rebounded solidly from injury-riddled 2006 as he was once again a 4-category threat. More of the same should be on tap this season, especially in that lineup. Injury is the only thing that has ever derailed his ability to produce at the highest levels since coming to the United States, so a full season of health brings a near guarantee of .300-25-100-100, bid with confidence.

57. Chone Figgins – Los Angeles Angels, 3B (30):
Figgins is now down to eligibility at third base only, but still put together an excellent despite essentially taking off two months. He missed all but one game of April with an injury, but then his .156 and five steals in all of May were almost like he wasn’t there anyway. He made up for lost time with an absurd June that saw him hit .461 and nab 14 bases letting his owners he was completely healthy. In fact, from June on, he hit .376 and stole 36 bases. He is a two category guy playing a power position, but his primary asset (the speed) is very bankable on the Angels. Pay for 40+ steals and stockpile power at 1B and OF to compensate.

56. Brad Hawpe – Colorado Rockies, OF (28):
Hawpe took another large step forward in power and run production, but continued the steps backwards in hitting left-handers (hitting .214 to continue a three-year downtrend against southpaws). Coors Effect splits are there (1.017 home OPS/.831 road OPS), but hardly alarming making it hard not to love putting him in your outfield. If he figures out lefties, he might have 40-home run ability, and if not then enjoy a 2007 repeat with a few more bombs.

55. Derek Jeter – New York Yankees, SS (33):
Mr. Intangible took a dip in fantasy production a year ago, though will undoubtedly continue to go for top dollar/early pick because of his name alone. He cut his speed by more than half with just 15 stolen bases last year against the 34 from 2006 and dropped off in runs scored and runs driven in despite more at-bats. At 33, there is no reason to bet on the speed returning, but he’ll still offer the handful of steals. When looking at his past five seasons, the 97 RBIs of ’06 is the outlier, so don’t look for that again, either. He is a 15-15 guy with a great average and a ton of runs scored thanks to that lineup, so bid accordingly.

54. Miguel Tejada – Houston Astros, SS (31):
Four straight of years declining home run totals have owners fleeing, but keep in mind that there was a good bit of time missed last year and he would’ve fallen just two home runs shy of his ’06 production had he equaled the ’06 at-bat total last year. The move Houston should boost value and widespread fears could make him an excellent buy-low candidate this season. The days of 30+ home runs aren’t likely to return, but a .300-25-100 line from shortstop for the round or dollar amount he is likely to command this year is very nice.

53. Garrett Atkins – Colorado Rockies, 3B (28):
It was a tale of two halves for Atkins in 2007 as he needed a remarkable 2nd half performance to save his season. The slow start kept him from matching the 2006 output, but he performed well enough to give owners confidence for this season. His 2nd half power boost came in spite of a large dip in flyball rate. My guess would be he was just trying to get under everything in the 1st half in hopes of becoming a 30+ home run hitter, but when that didn’t work he went back to his old approach realizing he can still hit home runs with a low-40s flyball rate (his 29 home run output in ’06 was with a 41% FB rate).

52. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros, OF (25):
Pence burst onto the scene with a white-hot May and only a wrist fracture in July slowed him down. He delivered 5-category production in 2007 and I doubt 2008 will be all that different. His position in the batting order seems up in the air with the addition of Miguel Tejada. Some sources suggest he could be as low as sixth with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Tejada ahead of him in no particular order. That may lower his ceiling in the runs scored and runs driven in columns, but keep in mind that Colorado’s Brad Hawpe hit 6th for 444 of his 516 at-bats last year.

51. Chipper Jones – Atlanta Braves, 3B (36):
Powered by his biggest at-bat total since 2003 (with 513), Jones was able to put together his best across-the-board season since 2001. That said, he still only played 134 games and hasn’t played more than 137 since 2003, so you are still paying for 70-to-80% of a season when acquiring Jones. In one league I was in last year, I saw things get quiet when his price hit $19, but I was more than happy to pay $20 to secure his services. It is highly unlikely he’ll go for prices like that this year, but he should. Expect .300-25-85 with anything higher being gravy.

50. C.C. Sabathia – Cleveland Indians, SP (27):
Sabathia has put together four straight seasons of improvement, including last year’s Cy Young-worthy effort, yet he will be just 27 this year! Even more amazing was that the three years before he started this run were all pretty damn solid. He hasn’t really had anything resembling a bad year during his 7-year career. The downside is that he has gone 180.1 innings or more in each of those seven seasons piling up 1406.1 innings in the process making overuse a concern. At this point, I am willing to believe he can handle the workload, but it is something to be aware of if you’re targeting him.

49. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies, OF (27):
Aaron Rowand’s departure gives Victorino job security patrolling centerfield for the Phillies this year. With a full season of work, Victorino has the ability to post 50+ stolen bases, which would have been 3rd or 4th in the National League last year. As it was, his 37 landed him 6th. He is a three category guy adding runs scored and batting average to the speed, but his owners have got to love the chip-in homers he brought to the table last year as well (12).

48. Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks, SP (29):
His natural progression of adding two wins per season since 2005 means he is ready for 20 in 2008! I am obviously kidding, but Webb has become a premier pitcher since gaining a handle on his control during that ’05 season. The excellent defense up the middle with Stephen Drew, Orlando Hudson and Chris Young plays perfectly to his style of pitching. Like Sabathia, he is piling up innings with four straight 200+ seasons in a row, but that doesn’t mean he is guaranteed to breakdown. In fact, it is merely a caveat for him and anyone else within this list. You simply cannot argue with the results that Webb has delivered for the past three seasons and it is hard to expect anything less in ’08.

47. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox, SP (27):
After a disastrous debut season in Boston (5.10 ERA in 2006), Beckett picked up where 2005 left off en route to a Cy Young Award. Unlike the past two starters mentioned, Beckett hasn’t really piled up the innings because injuries have stunted several seasons. His career best season came on the heels of his career worst, but there is little doubt that the former is in line with his ability. Look for more of the same in 2008 and it is clear the wins will pile up regardless of performance in Boston.

46. Erik Bedard – Baltimore Orioles (for now), SP (29):
If Bedard does in fact start the season with the Orioles, then he may see his position slide, but at the time of version 1.0 of this list he is heavily rumored to Seattle. He put it all together for an incredible season last year and would’ve likely garnered plenty of attention for the Cy Young Award had an oblique strain in late August not sapped six to seven starts away from him. His best days are likely head of him as he combines great power (4th in Ks) and control (3rd in WHIP). If he finds himself on a winner, the sky is the limit.

45. Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins, 1B (26):
You never like to jump on the guys with poor second halves like the one suffered by Morneau in ’07. Three home runs in August and September screams either injury or approach flaw and in both cases the offseason is likely the best remedy for him. He should bat 4th all year in ‘08 with Torii Hunter departed and Morneau’s production in that spot much better than Michael Cuddyer’s. His upside remains .300-40-120, but monitor spring performance where auction and draft dates allow before bidding for 2006 production.

44. Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay Rays, 1B (29):
Pena’s 2007 netted him the Comeback Player of the Year Award and while his career year was surprising, it was only because he had yet to cash in on the potential everyone saw for him as he rose through the minors. It took awhile, but he has arrived. Nothing within the statistics from ’07 forecasts a large regression except perhaps his newfound ability against lefties (.271 against .146, .245 and .208 in his previous three full seasons). Downside suggests an Adam Dunn-like season with 40 home runs and a sub .265 average, while the upside suggests a 2007 repeat or better!

43. Manny Ramirez – Boston Red Sox, OF (35):
You know you are a superstar when a .296-20-88 season is a down year for you. But was it just an off year or is he done? Given his track record, I am willing to bet it was merely an off year for Ramirez’s power and while he likely won’t put together another 40+ home run season, his 30+ days aren’t all gone. In some leagues, he will undoubtedly come at a discount. If you play in such a league, then enjoy the price cut and take a .300-30-100 season to the bank provided he is healthy enough to play 140+ games.

42. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks, OF (24):
Even if you didn’t have an Ichiro or Matt Holliday to cancel out Young’s atrocious average, he still provided outstanding value to the teams he was on in 2007 with a 32-27 rookie season. His skills predicted something closer to .270 and when combined with expected growth from this budding superstar, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see him reach that mark in the upcoming season. He batted 1st in over half of his games and hit for a better average (.251) there than he had in the other two slots where he saw significant time (6th and 7th). So much to like across the board with Young that you almost overlook the average in ’07 and expect to have to absorb something similar in ’08 just to be on the safe side.

41. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies, SS (23):
Only an other-worldly season by Ryan Braun kept Tulowitzki from grabbing hardware for his brilliant debut campaign. While he is your typical Coors Effect hitter (.326 home/.256 road), that does not negate his value no matter how much people may try to make it. Sure, you want to be aware of the fact that he benefits greatly from his home park, but his numbers accumulated in Coors don’t count for any less than if they were done elsewhere! Instead of hitting the 2nd half wall, he surged after the break which bodes well moving forward. Hope for improvement on the home/road splits, but be content if it doesn’t happen this year and take 20+ home runs and 90+ runs batted in from your shortstop.

I should have 21-40 up no later than Wednesday evening as long as everything goes according to schedule. I have also finished my 1st book of 2008, which I will review on Monday night and post no later than Tuesday.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Top 100 | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 04.10.2007

Predictions Are Stupid Anyway!

Jim Leyland went ahead and smoked my prediction before game 7 even started as Neifi Perez gets the starting nod over Brandon Inge. There’s always a pinch-hit opportunity, I guess.

Posted in Detroit Tigers, Predictions | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 04.10.2007

Stolen Thunder

Well, I had been absent for a few days and so I guess that’s what I get for dropping the ball. I was going to talk a bit about Brandon Inge and his early season woes, but Billfer beat me to the punch yesterday! While Inge isn’t concerned and thinks he’s really close, Billfer is a tad less optimistic. I tend fall somewhere in between the two. Billfer points to Inge’s contact rate being 6% off of his career rate as a negative whereas I see that as reason to easy up on the panic button. Inge thinks he is taking perfect swings, but dealing with a bit of bad luck. Could it be that perhaps, as Billfer says, Inge’s newfound level of patience has been a detriment? I would say no. Frankly, it is just too early to make sweeping judgments one way or the other. I am impressed with the effort by Billfer as always, though. I’ll go ahead with my first in-season prediction and say that Inge gets his first hit tonight against Jaret Wright, who enters the game with a 15.43 ERA.

Posted in Detroit Tigers, Predictions | Leave a Comment »

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