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Monday: 01.3.2011

Comparing My Top 24 w/a Mock Draft, Part 2

Yesterday, I began looking at the players drafted in the first two rounds of a mock draft I’m hosting over at CouchManagers.com against my Top 24 list from earlier this Fall. I highlighted those players who didn’t make top my 24 yet found their way into the first two rounds of our draft while today I will look at the draft positions of my group of players.

I’ll start with the group that “hit” with a hit being someone who was either dead even in my list and draft position or +/- two spots. There were eight direct hits, seven of which came within the top 10 suggesting that the first round might not bring much surprise in your draft. A lot can and almost certainly will change from now until draft day, though. There were three others who were within the two pick margin. All three were favored the two spots by me as opposed to the drafters. Here is the list of 11 players:

PLAYER My List Draft Diff.
Pujols, A 1 1 0
Ramirez, H 2 2 0
Cabrera, M 3 3 0
Longoria, E 6 6 0
Votto, J 7 7 0
Cano, R 8 8 0
Rodriguez, A 9 9 0
Utley, C 19 19 0
Wright, D 11 13 2
Hamilton, J 15 17 2
Youkilis, K 20 22 2

Next is the group that drafters “overrated” in my eyes. That is they took them three or more picks higher than I had them rated. The most egregious example is a bit skewed because it’s Adrian Gonzalez and when I rated him 21st, he was with the San Diego Padres. He has since gone to the Boston Red Sox which will certainly constitute a bump in value, but I still don’t think I will have him 10th, which is where he ended up in our draft.

PLAYER My List Draft Diff.
Gonzalez, A 21 10 -11
Tulowitzki, T 12 4 -8
Gonzalez, C 10 5 -5
Teixeira, M 18 14 -4
Halladay, R 14 11 -3

I knew I was lower than most on Troy Tulowitzki, but I was still a bit surprised when he went 4th overall. My concerns with him are as follows:

…though he has three good seasons out of the four he has been in the league, he still hasn’t cracked 100 RBIs, he has only topped 11 stolen bases once and though his .290 career average is damn good, 2010 was his only season above .300 (he hit .315). Mix in significant injury risk as he has missed 40 and 51 games in two of the last three seasons and there is reason for concern with Tulowitzki.

I just think you are inheriting too much risk taking him that high. I understand that if you want him and you have the 4th pick, that is going to be your only shot so you have to take your guy, but I would play it safer. He is a dynamic talent, but he could be this year’s Matt Kemp/Joe Mauer first round flameout.

Similarly, I come in a bit lower on Carlos Gonzalez because despite his huge 2010 season, I think he is rife with risk like his teammate, albeit different risk tied mostly to the fact that this is the first season he has actually paid dividends on his prodigious minor league talent. Tread cautiously.

And finally, there was an 8-player group that could be tabbed as “underrated” as they were three or more picks away from my top 24 ranking. Of course, they are only underrated to me and those who agree with my rankings.

PLAYER My List Draft Diff.
McCutchen, A 16 45 29
Braun, R 5 18 13
Rios, A 24 35 11
Crawford, C 4 12 8
Holliday, M 13 21 8
Hernandez, F 22 28 6
Zimmerman, R 17 20 3
Kemp, M 23 26 3

Soooo let’s just say I like Andrew McCutchen a smidge more than the general populous at this point in the draft season. He went almost two and a half rounds after where I had him slotted. Now the first question would obviously be “why didn’t I take him?”. Well, I only had one real shot where I really could have gotten him and I decided to take Jose Reyes with the first pick in the 3rd round. Shortstop remains a wasteland again in 2011 and I felt like Reyes was a nice value at that point. When McCutchen fell throughout the remainder of the 3rd and deep into the 4th, I thought I was going to get him at the end of the round, but he went three picks before mine. I settled for Ichiro Suzuki.

My jaw about hit the floor with Ryan Braun’s descent into the mid-2nd round. As you are probably tired of hearing by now, I put a lot of consideration into how high a player’s floor is with my early picks and I think Braun has one of the higher floors while still maintaining an appealing ceiling making him one of the best early round picks. He was a steal at 18 by Jason Collette.

I would have much rather taken Matt Holliday than the first base run from the early 2nd round I discussed yesterday, but it wasn’t an egregious fall for Holliday as the players taken from my ranking of Holliday to his draft position are clustered pretty tightly together.

—

I promised news soon about my 2011 Starting Pitcher Guide and I wanted to get it out today, but it didn’t happen, so stay tuned. I should have some details out at some point this week. I think those of you who have read it the last three years are really going to enjoy this year’s version.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Mock Drafts, Off-Season, Strategy, Top 24 | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 01.2.2011

Comparing My Top 24 w/a Mock Draft, The Misses

As I’m wont to do around this time each year, I started a mock draft up over at CouchManagers.com with a group of diehards if for no other reason than to forget about the luck-ridden awfulness that is fantasy football. While I do have severe issues with fantasy football, that isn’t really why I fire up baseball mocks so quickly after the season. A couple reasons are that I like to see how much the previous seasons figures in on 2011 expectations, especially in the early rounds and I am just a baseball junkie so I like to keep it on the brain year-round.

We started the 27 round (1 ea. of 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, COR, MID, UT, 2 C, 5 OF, 9 P, 4 BENCH) draft back on December 14th and surprisingly (given the holidays) we’re at the end of round 21 as of 11pm Sunday night. I’ll be sharing different aspects of the draft with you in this very space in the coming days, but today I wanted to look at how our first two rounds coincided with my top 24 from back in November.

What I wanted to see was who would come out as the biggest “values” in that they went much later than where I rated them in my top two dozen. Of course, I also wanted to see who came out the most overrated by the same measure. There was a subset of guys who I didn’t have on my top 24 that were drafted in the first two rounds of our mock. Let’s look at them first before we delve into how my top 24 fared against the draft.

Prince Fielder (15th overall) – The entire first round fell within my top 24 which isn’t terribly surprising, but I knew things would start to come off the tracks eventually as I only rated two additional first basemen after the Power Three (Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto) and our first two rounds saw four other 1Bs leave the board after the power three. Fielder was the first. I don’t hate the pick, mind you, even after a down 2010. He’s just 27 and I think he’s more likely to top 40 HR again in 2011 than he is to be just over 30 as he was in 2010. On the whole, I think a second round pick is better spent elsewhere especially when Adam Dunn was available 26 picks later.

Ryan Howard (16th overall) – I can get behind Fielder on some level (although his owner had just taken Adrian Gonzalez), but I won’t support Howard in the top 24 let alone 16th. At 31, you can’t bank on the gaudy HR and RBI totals that he needs to set himself apart from that middle tier of first basemen. The offense in Philly struggled last year, is a year older and now missing Jayson Werth. I’m avoiding Howard at his current cost.

Joe Mauer (23rd overall) – I fell hard for Mauer last year up until around March when I was swayed by the contingent screaming that he wasn’t a first round (or even second round, really) pick. I remain in that camp after his 2010 season. He’s a great player and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if he went 2009 on us again this year or sometime soon, but I’m not taking that high-priced risk in my draft.

Dustin Pedroia (24th overall) – This one is essentially semantics since I cut off my list at 24 because it’s two rounds of a standard draft and happens to be my favorite number, but Pedroia is 25th on my “official” list. I don’t think he will have any lingering issues with the foot in 2011 and thus he will be back to his All-Star form. Oh yeah, I also don’t have any issue with this pick because I am the one who made it.

None of the four names are particular surprisingly as they have all been early round staples the last couple of years, but I can’t envision any scenarios where I would take either Howard or Mauer. Maybe I got Carl Crawford or Troy Tulowitzki in the first round, I would come back around with Fielder, but by and large, he is a pass for me too. Pedroia, as I already mentioned, was my second round pick so obviously I can envision a scenario where I would bump him up (that scenario was getting Pujols and not wanting an outfielder in the second round).

Next up, I’ll look my 24 and how they fared in the draft.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, First Base, Mock Drafts, Off-Season, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 11.29.2010

Javier Vazquez Joins the Marlins

My least favorite move of the Hot Stove season last winter was the Atlanta Braves trade of Javier Vazquez to the New York Yankees. First off, I just didn’t like the return the Braves got for Vazquez who was coming off of a brilliant season, the best of his career. Upon further review, Arodys Vizcaino is a much more heralded prospect than I originally realized so that helped the deal. He is just 19 though, so he’s far from a sure thing.

And judging the trade as a whole now after the 2010 season and into the 2011 Hot Stove really shifts the advantage to the Braves. Not only was Vazquez a total flop in New York (5.32 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, nearly -3.0 K and 2.0+ BB difference in his per 9 IP rates), but the Braves were able to flip Michael Dunn, another part of the package from New York, to the Florida Marlins for Dan Uggla.

At the time though, I mostly disliked deal from a selfish fantasy baseball angle. I bought in heavily on Vazquez in the spring of 2009 and reaped significant benefits from his Cy Young-quality season and planned to do the same in 2010 as a well-priced keeper in NL-Only leagues only to have that plan dashed with the trade. Granted, no one cares about my fantasy fortunes one way or another, but Vazquez shifting back to the American League was a loss globally as his best work had always come in National League.

Over the weekend, Vazquez and the Florida Marlins agreed on a 1-year deal worth $7 million with both a full no-trade clause and a clause stating that the Marlins can’t offer him arbitration next winter. The former isn’t terribly worrisome as I’m sure Vazquez would waive it to go to a contender (non-New York division) if the Marlins were languishing through a terrible season and looking to move him. The latter is definitely a significant concession for the Marlins, but in return they no doubt got to drop the price on the contract.

It would have been nice to have the compensation pick potential, but I don’t think it should have been a deal breaker so I applaud the Marlins for making sure they got a discount in return for the arbitration concession. Early reports had teams offering Vazquez a 2-year pact worth about $20 million, but Vazquez refused to look at anything more than a year so the Marlins landed a $3 million dollar discount for the two clauses Vazquez wanted.

It’s hard to pin a value on Vazquez for 2011 and that could result in his being severely discounted as he was heading into 2009. The struggles he had in New York last year weren’t necessarily unexpected as many predicted a substantial drop in value, but the level to which he struggled was a surprise. He has always been home run prone and that was only exacerbated in Yankee Stadium with a career-worst 1.8 HR/9. His home run rate climbed from the previous year during his first stint with New York so I’m not sure what the Yankees were expecting with an even more homer-friendly home park.

The most alarming factor from his 2010 meltdown was the drop in velocity. This has become a hot topic since rumors of his signing began swirling including a deeper look at it from FanGraphs.com writer Dave Cameron. Cameron isn’t hopeful that he can regain the lost speed and without it, he isn’t sure Vazquez can be of much value.

Given his career workload, I wouldn’t bet on Vazquez’s fastball ever coming back. And if it doesn’t, well, the Marlins just risked $7 million in the hopes that he can teach himself how to pitch without his main weapon. That’s a pretty substantial risk for a team that isn’t exactly rolling in money.

Here’s a chart from FanGraphs showing the drop in velocity:

A drop in fastball velocity is never a good thing, so I won’t try to make that case, but I’m not sure that it is a complete doomsday scenario if his velocity plateaus at the new level. He still has a plus changeup and a plus curveball to fall back on. Instead of relying more on fastball generated swings & misses, he will need to become a better “pitcher”, more crafty if you will. His flyball tendencies (41% career rate, 0.96 career GB/FB rate) won’t hurt him nearly as much in Sun Life Stadium as they did in Yankee Stadium and his strikeout and walk rates are more likely to move back toward his career rates than they are to stay where they were in 2010 just by virtue of the fact that he is back in the National League.

I wouldn’t make too many judgments based solely on his disastrous 2010 when he is also a year removed from a season that earned him Cy Young consideration. Plus he has a bit of a Bret Saberhagen thing going with every other year ERA spikes and drops and though I’d be reticent to bet on a theory like that, he has done it every year since 2000. I’m definitely willing to invest in his 13-season track record as opposed to shying away based on his worst year since his rookie year of 1998. If a sub .500 record and 4.67 ERA in 2008 held his value down going into 2009 despite strong supporting skills, then I can’t imagine having to pay much to take a chance heading into 2011 after the bottom fell out on his numbers in 2010.

Vazquez will be on my radar for 2011 and he won’t need to post a 2009 line to return a profit.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 11.9.2010

Top 24 for 2011 – Part 3

Part 3 of my look at the top 24 players for the 2011 season.

Part 1
Part 2

In the homestretch of my top 24 with the entire first round left. Remember when viewing these top 12 picks that a lot of my process involves the highest floors just as much as the highest ceilings. Sure, I want the guy who can explode for the transcendent season, but what I really want is the guy whose “bad” season is still pretty damn good (see also: Rodriguez, Alex).

12. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL – T3 (middle name Trever) is a very good player on the cusp of entering his prime and though he has three good seasons out of the four he has been in the league, he still hasn’t cracked 100 RBIs, he has only topped 11 stolen bases once and though his .290 career average is damn good, 2010 was his only season above .300 (he hit .315).  Mix in significant injury risk as he has missed 40 and 51 games in two of the last three seasons and there is reason for concern with Tulowitzki.  On the plus side, he will be just 26 years old next year, he has home run totals of 24, 27 and 32 in three of the last four seasons and he plays the thinnest position in fantasy baseball.  Don’t just extrapolate T3’s 2010 to a full season of at-bats when projecting him for 2011, that would be very dangerous.  He needed an otherworldly month of September that included 15 home runs and 40 RBIs to put up a full season’s worth of numbers in 122 games.  I would view his 2010 as a full season expectation for 2011.

11. David Wright, 3B, NYM – Well that’s more like it.  Wright’s 2010 season was back to what we have come to expect from the third baseman as he raised his power totals from 10 HR/72 RBI to 29 HR/103 RBI and the only real expense from 2009’s line was the stolen bases dropping from 27 to 19.  It was a great fantasy baseball season, but there are some concerns from a real life baseball standpoint in that he set a career-high in strikeouts at 161 (21 higher than last year’s career-high mark of 140) and his walk rate continued to tumble.  His 2007 peak of 13.2% has dropped yearly with the sharpest drop coming from 2009 to 2010 as he shaved off 1.7% to 10.3%, second-worst in his career.  For me, we are splitting hairs a bit to freak out on the latter as his 10.3% rate was still among the Nation League’s best (24th overall).  Wright remains a superstar in his prime and a few more strikeouts aren’t going to cut into his value much when he is putting as complete a line as he does, even if the stolen bases taper off to the 13-17 range.

10. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL – I am probably a little lower on him that most, but remember what I said back in Part 1 about not overrating the most recent season one way or another.  And like I mentioned again at the outset of this piece, a player’s floor is important to me, too.  As a 25-year old with one full season and just 319 games in all under his belt, would it surprise if Gonzalez seriously regressed from his breakout 2010 season?  His batting average was significantly inflated by a .384 BABIP (.355 career, .333 career-high before ’10)  and he enjoyed the 7th-best home run per flyball rate in baseball (20.4%) which masked a drop in flyballs from his 2009 mark.  All that said, he’s not some fluke scrub who came out of nowhere (3-time Baseball America top 32 prospect: 32, 18, 22 from 2006-2008) so just because I’m entertaining the notion that he could regress significantly, I am not saying it’s 100% that he will.  If pressed for a stat line on his 2011 season, I would be somewhere in the neighborhood of .291 AVG, 98 R, 26 HR, 102 RBI, 22 SB.  He still cracks the top 12 with ease because his ceiling is a season that matches or even exceeds 2010, he is that talented.

9. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY – A-Rod has started on the slow decline that is the twilight of his career, but even a pair of his worst seasons are good as many players out there.  The batting average dipped (.270) to the lowest it has been since 1995 when he wasn’t yet a full time player, but he still banged out 30 HR and 125 RBI in 137 games.  With just four stolen bases on seven tries, the end may be here for A-Rod as a runner, but he may have another sneaky 12 SB season in him once 100% healthy again.  I think 2010 serves as his floor for the next 2-3 years though .300 and 35 are both in play in everything breaks in his favor in a given a year.  You’re not drafting A-Rod for upside anymore, you’re taking him to mitigate early round risk and have a bankable stat line from your first round pick.

8. Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY – All the raving about Cano’s 2010 season has me a bit puzzled.  It’s not that I don’t believe he deserves accolades for a brilliant season, it’s that I’m wondering where these plaudits were last year.  Essentially Cano’s stock has risen significantly thanks to 24 RBIs and 27 walks because outside of those two improvements, his 2010 was the same as his 2009.  Cano is a 4-category superstar in the midst of his prime and he is worthy of your first round pick.  I think he’s a first rounder on his numbers alone as he doesn’t really gain much from position scarcity.  There is this perception that second base is thin, but just as I did last year, I think it is one of the deeper positions even once you get past Cano, the 18th ranked Chase Utley and a healthy Dustin Pedroia.

7. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN – If I may pat myself on the back for a moment, one of my big predictions for 2010 was that Votto would hit 35 home runs and knock in 120.  He hit 2 more home runs and knocked in just seven less.  I am happy to say I was firmly entrenched on Votto bandwagon and took him well above his third round (29th overall) ADP last year in two separate leagues.  But enough about me because let’s be honest, no one gives a damn about me & my leagues.  I love Votto again for 2011, but be careful if you’re betting on a repeat season.  His home run boost was driven by a major league best 25% HR per flyball rate.  He was at 18% the two years before so he is scheduled for a regression especially considering that he actually coupled the major HR/FB rate with a 4% drop in his flyball rate.  He is more of a 30 HR hitter and there is nothing wrong with that.  Especially when you are hitting .320+ with 100+ runs scored & driven in.  I realize first base is really deep, but that mean that you should ignore the immense star power and take a lesser player just because they play a more scarce position.

6. Evan Longoria, 3B, TB – On the surface, Longoria’s 2010 season might feel like a disappointment.  It is probably because he was a chic MVP pick, but then by season’s end his home run total had dropped by 11 from 2009 to “just” 22.  So he didn’t have the career year many expected (including yours truly), but he was hardly anything close to a failure.  Remember that we are in a different era for offense and 22 home runs is legitimate once again.  Yes, his 33 HR season was excellent, but his 22 HR season was still very good; the total was good for 7th-most among all third basemen.  Longoria has put together three brilliant seasons and he is still a year away from his prime meaning we likely haven’t seen his best.

5. Ryan Braun, OF, MIL – Here is another great example of the high floor theory I am talking about.  The 2010 season was Braun’s worst, but there was nothing bad about it as he hit .304 with 25 HR, 103 RBI, 101 R and 14 stolen bases.  When your lowest OPS in four seasons is .866, you are an awesome player.  That is exactly what Braun is and at age 27, he is either a year into or just starting his prime depending on what range you consider the prime to be for a player.  An underrated factor to Braun’s greatness is his sustained health.  He has played 151, 158 and 157 games the last three years and he played 113 of 118 possible games in his rookie season after coming up in late May.  That kind of reliability is hard to find these days so that definitely earned Braun an extra boost in these rankings.

4. Carl Crawford, OF, FA – The biggest free agent hitter available this offseason, I don’t feel like Crawford’s value will move much one way or another based on his new home.  Crawford has always been a speed/batting average superstar with a smattering of power, but since moving down to the 2-3 spots in the lineup, he has become a legitimate five category stud and there is no reason to believe he won’t continue to play that way for the next 2-3 years at the very least.  He is averaging .299 AVG, 13 HR, 70 RBI, 93 R and 50 SB the last eight years despite the inclusion of a washed out 2008 season where he played just 109 games thanks to injuries.  Crawford was inexplicably outside of the top 12 in ADP last year (15th overall), but there is no way he will end up there this year.

3. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET – This is not a homer pick, not in the slightest.  Cabrera is .320-34-120 in the bank and it doesn’t matter what position you are getting those numbers at, they are elite.  His stability is even better than Braun’s as Cabrera has averaged 158 games in seven seasons since becoming a full-time player.  That is pretty much unheard of in today’s game.  With so many seasons in the .320-34-120 range, it isn’t farfetched to believe that Cabrera has a career year where he goes .330-45-140 in his holster still.  Again, I don’t really care that he plays at the deepest position in the game, when the numbers are that good and that consistent and the player is still in his prime, he is automatically a top 5 pick.

2. Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLO – When you look Ramirez’s stat line from 2010, it is easy to say he disappointed, but did he really?  No, he wasn’t the 2nd-best player in baseball as he was drafted to be, but anyone who thinks they can predict exactly where a player will finish in any given year is ridiculous.  You first round player is picked that high because you are expecting a high quality, minimal variance stat line that will serve as the beginning foundation for your team.  If they happen to finish exactly where you drafted them in the overall rankings, that is a bonus; not an expectation.  A big reason that Ramirez is draft so highly is because of the scarcity at shortstop and all he did last year was hit for the 2nd-best average among shortstops (.300), deliver the most stolen bases (32), score the 2nd-most runs (92), hit the 4th-most home runs (21) and drive in the 5th-most runs (76) despite playing a career-low 142 games.  I wouldn’t criticize anyone taking Ramirez first overall, but for me we have seen his career year (2007) and while he probably has at least one more 30+ home run season in him, I doubt he has any more 50+ stolen base ones.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, STL – Why try to fix what isn’t broken?  I am not sure how anyone but Pujols could occupy the top spot until he gives us a discernible reason to replace him.  One of his nicknames is “The Machine” and he continues to live up to it year in and year out with incredible numbers.  I hope we don’t have to sit through another offseason hearing about his balky elbow and how this is now the year that it will catch up to him.  Maybe it is, but until he falters from his perch as the best in the game, he deserves to be picked first in just about any league format you can create.  Even with a middling supporting cast, Pujols managed to lead the league in runs scored and driven in because when you are the best, your supporting cast doesn’t matter.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Predictions, Strategy, Top 24 | 2 Comments »

Friday: 11.5.2010

Top 24 for 2011 – Part 2

Part 2 of my look at the top 24 players for the 2011 season.

Part 1

19. Chase Utley, 2B, PHI – Placing Utley on this list was tough. After just 115 games last year, I think health is a valid concern, but as he pushes deeper into his 30s (32 next year) I am worried he will become similar to Chipper Jones in that he’s excellent when on the field, but how often will he be on the field? The injury concern was enough for me to bump him down to 19 because I’m aiming to mitigate risk with my early picks. You can’t win the draft in the first two rounds, but you can lose it.

18. Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY – I am not going to overreact to the .256 batting average this past season because a) batting average is largely overrated and he was just a hit a week away (26 in all) from a .300 average and b) his other fantasy relevant numbers (R, HR, RBI for Teix) were right in line with what we have come to expect from Teix. His overwhelming consistency keeps him firmly in the top 24 despite the incredible depth at first base.

17. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS – It is hard not to be impressed with the first five full seasons of Zimmerman’s career with just one down year (injury-riddled 2008 w/106 games played) and consistent 20+ homer power and ~.290 batting average in the other four. Once you factor in that he will be just 26 in 2011, his career line becomes even more impressive and the best may very well be ahead of him in the coming years. That combination of a very adequate floor (20 HR, 85 RBI, .280 AVG) and likely unreached ceiling (35-120-.320 perhaps?) makes him a very intriguing player next year.

16. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT – This is one of “my calls” in that the statistics alone don’t support Cutch over a host of other guys I could have included here, but I still chose him because I think 2010 (94 R, 16 HR, 56 RBI, 33 SB, .286 AVG) is far from his upside and pretty close to what could reasonably be considered his floor. An improvement season could yield a 20 HR, 40 SB, .300 AVG season which would definitely warrant this mid-2nd round rating. He may still be a year away from a true breakout, but I’d rather be a year early than a year late.

15. Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX – Don’t look so surprised. Honestly, Hamilton is fortunate to be ranked this highly. The .359 batting average was fueled by a gaudy .399 BABIP that almost certainly won’t be repeated in 2011. Mix in a massive injury risk and an unprecedented situation where someone has aged their body in a very unpredictable way and you have an early round that could absolutely blow up in your face. When he is healthy and playing, few are better, but you have a games played log of 90, 156, 89 and 133 since his comeback. Proceed with caution.

14. Roy Halladay, SP, PHI – The only other starting pitcher to crack the list, Halladay is the gold standard when it comes to mound men. Everyone expected him to crush it his first year in the National League and he did not disappoint in the least. Pitching is the single most volatile position in the game, but Halladay is quantifiable money in the bank. If any one pitcher could get me to break my “no pitchers drafted early” rule, it would be Halladay, not only because I like him quite a bit, but because he is unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball and like fine wine seems to get better with age (34 in 2011).

13. Matt Holliday, OF, STL – This is another high floor over high ceiling pick as Holliday is a bankable 100 runs, mid-20s home runs, 100 RBIs and .310 batting average year in and year out. If all the luck were to go into his favor for an entire season, he could push 30 homers with a .325 batting average and 110 in each of the counting stats, but in lieu of that he just keeps plugging away with a very capable line. The stolen bases may finally stop dropping (28, 14, 9 last 3 seasons), but they are far more likely to hold than reverse course back upward.

Next: 12-1

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Predictions, Strategy | 3 Comments »

Thursday: 11.4.2010

Top 24 for 2011 – Part 1

With the MLB season officially completed on Monday night, we can start looking ahead to the 2011 season and how the top players line up. This season was as interesting as any in recent history because the movement among the top players was heavy. A lot of young players had excellent seasons while some of the old guard faltered just a bit creating openings within the top 24.

How much stock can you put into any one season for better or worse? Obviously a lot of players will make many of their decisions off of the 2010 season which is dangerous game. I fell into that trap last year when overrating both Matt Kemp & Joe Mauer, who both fell flat on their faces in 2010. Though I will consider 2010 a lot in making my decisions about who belongs in the top 24, I will also strongly consider a player’s track record & career trajectory based on age and health.

Make no mistake that my process has always combined the previous season with the track record & career trajectory analysis of a player when deciding where they should go in the following season, but I fell in love with Mauer’s excellent season leading me to put him in the first round in the initial iteration of this article last year. As spring approached and drafts/auctions began, I tempered my Mauer love realizing the error of my ways with respect to him as a first rounder.

With Kemp, I expected improvement on his stellar 2009 season, but instead he regressed back to a slightly lesser version his 2008 line which is still pretty good, but most certainly a face plant considering where he went in most drafts. Neither he nor Mauer truly tanked the teams of fantasy owners who drafted them, though they did severely disappoint given the cost to said owners. Kemp will actually just be entering his prime in 2011 so if the .249 average and 19 stolen bases (after back-to-back years with 30+) tank his value then he could be something of a sleeper of the early rounds a la Josh Hamilton in 2010.

The uncertainty at the top given the surging results of the new guard combined with the lagging results of the old guard create the potential for Kemp/Mauer situations in a list looking at next year’s top 24, but I will be cognizant of that and you will see it with the ranking of a few such players. With all of that said, let’s get to the double dozen.

24. Alex Rios, OF, CWS/Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CLE – There just isn’t much difference between these two so I decided to slot both of them in at the 24th spot, but I could have just as easily expanding the list to 25 players. Looking at their 2010 lines shows Rios with a stolen base edge and Choo with a batting average edge. Personally, I’d take the former, but in terms of overall value it’s splitting hairs. Choo is also a little younger, though, so there may be a shred more upside with him. On the whole, there isn’t much separating these two AL Central outfielders so I’ve got them tied for the end of the 2nd round.

23. Matt Kemp, OF, LAD – No, Kemp did not live up to his draft slot this year and yes, he did hit a dismal .249, but he wasn’t waiver wire fodder. He ripped a career high 28 home runs. His runs scored, driven in and stolen bases all fell precipitously, but his totals of 82, 89 and 19 in those categories didn’t kill anyone’s team. And he has been as reliable as any player in recent memory in terms of playing time logging 155, 159 and 162 games the last three years. To top it all off, he will be 26 this year and could finally put up the monster 30-30 year everyone was looking for this year.

22. Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA – Let’s get one thing straight: I don’t take starting pitchers in the first two rounds. However, just because I personally avoid the risk associated with them doesn’t mean it doesn’t happen and I will cover them in this list because there are a few who deserve to be mentioned. King Felix is a workhorse superstar with five straight seasons of 30+ starts including back-to-back Cy Young worthy seasons. Now here’s the jaw-dropper: he will be 25 years old next year. With a 2.25 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 250 innings, Hernandez likely won’t improve his numbers next year, but taking a pitcher this early is in an investment in stability in a ridiculously unstable market.

21. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SDP – I realize first base is deep, everyone realizes it, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t be taken early. A handful of first basemen made this list starting with Gonzalez. A lot of his presence on this list has to do with consistency. He’s .280-30-100 in the bank with ceiling for more, as evidenced by his 40-home run season back in 2009. The lineup around him stifles the runs scored and even the runs driven in to a point given his incredible power should probably be yielding closer to 110 RBIs or more. The fact that San Diego was in contention right down to the wire last year could compel them to go out and make stark improvements to their lineup which would only help A-Gonz and of course if their fortunes go the other way, he could be dealt.

20. Kevin Youkilis, 3B/1B, BOS – He managed just 102 games in 2010 thanks to a thumb injury that eventually required surgery, but the injury should have no lasting effects in 2011 and thus he makes the list with ease. He might not quite make it with 1B-only on his resume, but the 3B eligibility for Youk is a prime asset. High 20s power and a .300 average go well together and they go even better with 90+ runs scored and driven in on a potent team like the Red Sox. Youkilis is going to miss games at various points in the season which hurts his value in a head-to-head formats, but as long as he keeps putting up a full season’s line in his 140-145 games, then he has at least another year or two among the elite.

Next: 19-13

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Mock Drafts, Off-Season, Predictions, Strategy, Top 24 | 4 Comments »

Thursday: 07.8.2010

Going for Broke – Catchers & Corners

I know I said podcasts were returning this week, but as I’ve mentioned before, it’s really difficult to sit at the desk for 2+ hours to record and edit the show. I need to prop my broken ankle up all the time and it’s impossible to do so comfortably at my desk. What I can do is write in the meantime, so here is part one of a series.

Did you draft Joe Mauer this year? How about Grady Sizemore or Jason Bay? Jacoby Ellsbury? Javier Vazquez? Jake Peavy? Josh Beckett? You get the point. If you drafted one or more these guys (or a host of others not included) then your season isn’t panning out how you planned. Whether injury, lack of performance or both, these guys were all top 100 picks who aren’t putting up what you expected when constructing your team.

You may have offset your duds with a handful of the diamonds in the rough that have emerged in the first half of the season, but these things seem to snowball so it is more likely that you are wallowing in the middle to bottom of your standings with two or three of these guys wondering what in the world you should do with the rest of your summer. You could give up, ignore your team and become “that owner” or you could suck it up and try your hardest to get back in it. If you have been playing this game for length of time, you have heard stories about how a team was in last place at the All-Star break, but they surged all the way back to win it.

They may have had some crafty trades or their weak links started performing, but one thing is certain: they took some chances. They went out and got some guys whether via trade or waiver wire and just said, “Hey, what’s the worst that can happen? I’m already in last! This guy will either perform up to his talent or continue to flounder, but I’m in last so it can’t hurt!” You need to invest in some gambles who have a reasonable chance to pay off big time if you’re going to surge up through the standings.

Going out and trying to acquire the Evan Longorias and Josh Johnsons of the world will cost far too much and the gain, if there is any, will be minimal. You will end up damaging yourself too much in one category or another to get what those superstars bring. With that in mind, I have put together a team of lottery ticket guys you should be targeting for this strategy. Some are next-to-nothing cost lottery tickets, while others have a cost, but it is definitely not that of a Ryan Braun or Roy Halladay. The idea is these guys will be among the hottest in the second half and start leading teams through the standings.

Catcher – Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks

Last year after the All-Star break Montero hit .316/.366/.534 with 11 home runs and 40 RBIs in 234 at-bats showing you just how hot he can get for a period of time. And it wasn’t one especially hot month that propelled him, either. His OPS totals by month were: 1.007 in July, .910 in August and .824 in September. In his tiny 81 at-bat sample so far this year, he has been excellent, but he is still returning from knee surgery and Chris Snyder has still been taking at-bats.

You should look to use the injury concern as leverage to drive the price down a little bit. He won’t be free by any stretch, especially since he was a highly touted sleeper coming into the season, but he is definitely worth targeting. Only four catchers have hit 11 home runs so far and only two of those have driven in 40 runs so if Montero can repeat or at least approach his second half numbers from 2009, then he will definitely be among the elite backstops in baseball.

First Base – Adam LaRoche, Arizona Diamondbacks

A perennial second half star, LaRoche has this odd knack for really turning it up as the thermometer jumps. In the last three years, he has a .246/.330/.440 line with 36 home runs in 925 at-bats before the break and a .309/.371/.537 line with 35 home runs in 685 at-bats after the break. Only one fewer home run in 240 fewer at-bats. He also goes from batting average anchor to batting average booster after the Midsummer Classic.

If he stays in Arizona, he could reasonably drop 20 home runs from here on out as Chase Field has been known for being a home run haven, especially for lefties like LaRoche. The honorable mention here would be Prince Fielder if your league’s Prince owner foolishly discounts him because of a ho-hum .265 batting average. It’s unlikely, but stranger things have happened. The point of this group of players is again to minimize cost while returning as much upside as possible. Generally, Fielder should still be at full price, but some people are dumb.

Third Base – Alex Gordon, 1B/3B/OF, Kansas City Royals

I seriously just put Kansas City Chiefs by accident. Whoops. I’m not even a football diehard, I prefer baseball by leaps and bounds over the NFL. I would be much higher on Gordon if he played for a competent franchise. Don’t cry about money disparity, Royals fans. You (and the Pirates and Astros, etc…) suck because of awful management. Many teams are able to overcome the financial disadvantage, but there is no defense against stupid.

Excuse the rant, it stems from the fact that Gordon is inexplicably stuck in AAA where he is annihilating pitchers with a .314/.439/.563 line including 12 home runs and even seven stolen bases in 229 at-bats. What is he proving down there? Why was he even sent down in the first place? Oh yeah, because he hit .194 in a whopping 31 at-bats. Joba Chamberlain thinks the Royals mishandled Gordon, that is how badly they have messed this up.

Anyway, he should be up soon and I think he is worth taking a chance on to see if he finally delivers #2 overall pick production. Depending on your league, he might not cost you anything more than a waiver claim. Those are probably the shallower 10 and 12 team mixed leagues in which case you probably don’t even need to consider him until he is actually called up. For those of you in those leagues, your gamble pick is Chone Figgins.

Remember in 2007 when Figgins missed the first month and then hit .160 in May? He ended the season at .330 thanks to a .376 average from June 1st on. That is the kind of crazy streak he is capable of going on if he gets himself right. And at the very least, he is on pace for 44 stolen bases.

Corner Infielder – Carlos Pena, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays

In need a power surge? Pena is your guy. In need a batting average surge? Ehhh, you might want to look elsewhere. Pena showed what kind of damage he is capable of in short order when he popped seven home runs in a six game stretch in June. He is on pace for “just” 31 home runs this year, but with the kind of streaks he can go on during a given month, he may very well approach 40 home runs as he has in two of the last three years (46 in 2007, 39 last year). A 40-home run season would mean he has 24 in the bank; for the sake of comparison Joey Votto leads all first basemen with 21 right now.

As I mentioned at the outset, he is a batting average anchor in fact he has been in every one of his 10 seasons except 2007 when he hit .282. He’s a career .244 hitter, but I think impact of one guy to a batting average is often overrated. Consider that he had 490 at-bats in 2007 when he hit .282 and 2008 when he hit .247 and the difference between those two was 17 hits. If you think he will get to his career .244 mark over say 260 at-bats in the second half, he would have to hit .292 in which case he would be a batting average boost.

Even if he hits the .227 he hit last year, he would hit .258 the rest of the way which won’t kill you. And .258 just happens to be his second-half average the last three years. He has 58 home runs before and after the breaks the last three years, but the latter 58 came in 643 at-bats while the former 58 were in 808.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 06.29.2010

Baseball by Paul Podcast 6/29/10 Show Notes

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Jeff Francis, SP, Colorado Rockies –Back in 2007 Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Jeff Francis put together his best season yet going 215 innings and striking out 6.9 batters per nine while walking just 2.6 good for a 2.7 K/BB ratio. He compiled a 17-9 record with a 4.22 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. The WHIP as a little high and the ERA was hardly ace-worthy, but in Colorado it was pretty impressive for a starter to put up back-to-back seasons with an ERA below 4.25.

And he was consistent whether home or away so he wasn’t just padding his stats on the road. But then the injuries set in. His 2008 was an injury-marred disaster that resulted in just 144 innings and saw his ERA rocket to 5.01 and the WHIP follow suit at 1.48. Shoulder surgery took him out for the entire 2009 season leaving him off the radar entirely for 2010.

He didn’t get going until May 16th, but he’s been pretty solid this year in eight starts with a 3.53 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB ratio in 51 innings. He is today’s Trolling the Wire pickup. His strikeouts are a bit low at 4.8, but I think he will still wind up with about 6 by season’s end. If he can keep his control at 1.6 walks per nine, then 6 strikeouts will be great. His xFIP is 3.91 so his luck pretty much in line with the stats he has been posting. His home run rate is sitting at 0.4 HR/9 so that will likely move up a bit as he has a career mark just over 1, but his LOB% is a little light too so if he gets closer to his 71% career mark there too, it will help balance out the HR correction.

Francis is owned in 40% of CBS leagues, 12% of Y! leagues and 8% of ESPN leagues, so he is available in the majority of leagues. The strikeout rate likely has owners shying away, but I think he’s worth the pickup.

Articles of the Day

I didn’t feature one on the show, but plenty of good stuff here:

Top 10 Week – General Manager Candidates – by Will Carroll

The 2010 Amateur Draft: Bulk Investments – Marc Hulet

Keith Hernandez Wants to Contract Four Teams, But Hates Replay – Michael McCarthy

Stephen Strasburg is NOT an All-Star – by Joe Lemire

Interleague Records Through 2010, Eat it National League! (italicized part mine) – by Beyond the Boxscore

Jered Weaver Revisited Yet Again – by Dave Cameron

The Branyan Deal – by Jack Moore

Tampa Fans Who Voted in this Poll are Stupid Idiots (my headline) – by Joe Henderson

Who Am I? – by Ray Flowers

Can Brennan Boesch Keep Hitting Like Pujols? – by Jon Williams

Bet of the Day

A tough loss as Strasburg looked Strasburgian for the first 6 innings, but the Braves got to him in the 7th handing him his second loss in a row. But like I said, I’m always taking a guy like him as an underdog. There’s just too much talent not to make that value bet.

Today, I’m going to take Yovani Gallardo and the Brewers against the hapless Houston Astros. Brett Myers is a decent pitcher so it’s not a slamdunk, especially since I’m going with the run line to avoid the lofty moneyline, but I’ll take my chances on the Brewers staying hot at home of late.

Brewers RL -110
Record: 4-6, -$224

Spot Starters

Yesterday I picked Brandon Morrow for today against the Indians and then for tomorrow I selected Tom Gorzelanny back in the rotation against his former team.

Tuesday – Brandon Morrow v. Cleveland (Fausto Carmona)
Wednesday – Tom Gorzelanny v. Pittsburgh (Jeff Karstens)

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Podcast, Predictions, Radio Show, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Stephen Strasburg, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 06.28.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/28/10 Show Notes

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Pat Burrell, OF, San Francisco Giants

Four days ago, I recommended Russell Branyan as the Trolling the Wire pickup with the primary reason being that power is often in short supply on the waiver wire. You can never have too much because it home runs contribute to four categories: home runs obviously, RBIs, R and batting average. You should want to hoard power every year, but this year it seems especially true as it looks like the Year of the Pitcher and many teams have turned to the running game, too.

There are currently 11 players on pace to top 45 steals this year; only three players accomplished that feat in 2009. And that is just top end speed, there are tons of steals available in smaller bunches from plenty of unexpected sources, many of who are likely on your league’s waiver wire. So power remains the focus. As such, Monday’s trolling the wire pickup is San Francisco Giants outfielder, Pat Burrell.

Burrell is back in the National League where he averaged nearly 30 home runs for eight seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies including 33 just 2 years ago. After laboring for a season plus with the Tampa Bay Rays, Burrell has been reborn in 18 games with the Giants posting a .315/.387/.593 line with 4 HR, 10 RBI and 8 R. He matched his hit total of 17 with the Rays in 30 fewer at-bats.

Burrell should hit mid-teens home runs with 50+ RBIs the rest of the way with a legitimate shot at 20 if he stays healthy and manages not to embarrass himself too much out in leftfield. It’s a rare league that has Burrell owned with a 14% ownership rate in CBS leagues, just 3% in Y! leagues and a whopping 1% in ESPN leagues.

If you’re power deficient or even if you’re doing OK, but can gain points in HR, RBI and R, then see if Burrell can be slid into your lineup.

Articles of the Day
Today we have a double-feature centered around the Tampa Bay Rays. Jonah Keri and Jason Collette put together a pair of excellent pieces on the struggling team highlighting what has gone wrong and what can be done to fix the ills. Keri put together the 10 Things the Rays Should Do to Compete for the World Series including ditching Hank Blalock and looking into a trade for David DeJesus. While Collette outlines 30 reasons the Rays have gone 12-19 including Matt Garza’s cold streak, who I discussed last week as well as the toothpick-like bats the team is wielding with a .397 SLG during the slump. A pair of great people writing a pair of great articles that are worth reading whether you’re a Rays fan or not.

Featured Pieces
30 for 30: Why the Rays Have Slumped – by Jason Collette
10 Things the Rays Should do to Compete for the World Series – Jonah Keri

Others:
Backstop Depth: NYY v. TOR – by Marc Hulet
Who You Face Matters – by Pat Andriola
We Shouldn’t Be Surprised to See the ChiSox in the Race – by Tim Marchman
A Quick (and Effective?!) Way to Evaluate a Team – by Faketeams.com
Is Johan Santana Droppable?? – by Ray Guilfoyle
More on the Strasburg as an All-Star Debate – by Howard Bryant & Jerry Crasnick

Bet of the Day

It’s been awhile since I’ve had a bet of the day, so just to bring you back up to speed: I’m 4-5 with a -$119 balance. My Monday pick was kind of an easy one for me. Of course, I’m about to pick a team that was just swept by the Baltimore Orioles, but I’ll take Stephen Strasburg as an underdog without even blinking. Strasburg and his Washington Nationals are +105 in Atlanta against Tim Hudson and the Braves. I respect both Hudson and the Braves, but Strasburg as an underdog is very appealing.

Nationals +105
Record: 4-5, -$119

Spot Starter for Tuesday

Reviewing my weekend spot starters shows some carnage as I doubled up with the Seattle Mariners neither of whom were Cliff Lee or Felix Hernandez. I went with Doug Fister and Jason Vargas and the results were severely underwhelming. The two combined to go nine innings allowing seven runs on 12 hits and two walks, but they only struck out three. Neither squeaked out a win, either.

On Tuesday there are a lot of aces and #2s going so there isn’t much to choose from. I will go with Brandon Morrow at Cleveland. As a Trolling the Wire choice the other day, he is available in a lot of leagues and he has a light hitting opponent to pick on so he’s worth getting in your lineup if you need a start.

Tuesday – Brandon Morrow (CBS-76%, Y!-27%, ESPN-18%)

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Podcast, Predictions, Radio Show, Statistical Analysis, Stephen Strasburg, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Friday: 06.25.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/25/10 Show Notes

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Gio Gonzalez, SP, Oakland A’s

*Ownership Rates: CBS – 67%, Y! – 27%, ESPN – 19%
*CB value – 8.8 (3rd-best in baseball behind Wainwright & Carpenter) according to Fangraphs.com
*FB value is solid at 36th in baseball – Similar to Dallas Braden, Colby Lewis and Cole Hamels
*CH value still negative but improved significantly from 2009: -6.2 to -3.3

Brandon Morrow, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

*Ownership Rates: CBS – 64%, Y! – 19%, ESPN – 13%
*92 strikeouts, but 42 walks too
*1.85 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in last 39 IP
*Only 2-1 in that stretch
*K rate down to 7.6 from season 9.9 during stretch
*BB rate down to 3.2 from season 4.9, too

Articles of the Day

How to Catch Up in WHIP
Five Numbers: Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Max Scherzer and more…
Don’t Give Up on James Shields
By the Numbers: Getting Control of the Situation
Matt Wieters’ Disappointing Season
Preventing Runs as Important as Scoring Runs

Spot Starters

Ugh, stupid Scott Feldman sucks. He went six, but gave up 5 runs on 12 hits. He struck out 7 and walked just one, but he was very hittable.

Friday – Aaron Harang
Saturday – Doug Fister (E-20%, Y-34%, C-47%) first start off of DL v. Milwaukee
Sunday – Jason Vargas (E-28%, Y-35%, C-63%)
Monday – Most of the starters haven’t been named for Monday so unfortunately, I can’t go that far.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Podcast, Predictions, Prospects, Radio Show, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Stephen Strasburg, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

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