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Friday: 01.25.2013

Top 10 RP – Review

Last Friday night, MLB Network unleashed their Top 10 Relief Pitchers Right Now along with input from host Brian Kenny, co-host and human bobblehead (click that & also see below) Mitch Williams, and special guest to the series Bill James. The results were a bit annoying. For one, they did what I feared they might do: lean far too heavily on closers. One list had exactly zero middle relievers and the maker of said list is a huge surprise. I know these lists are for s’s & g’s and despite how it may read, I’m not getting that worked up over it, I’m just trying to have some fun as we move closer toward real baseball!

HumanBobble2

Here are all four lists from MLB Network-related folks and then I’ll address them separately:

top10RPlists

The Shredder

I’ll say straight out front that The Shredder did much better with the relievers than with starters. I’ll also admit that Grant Balfour was a nice pick. I probably didn’t give him enough consideration. The dude hates letting guys hit the ball (4.9 H/9 last year), misses a good amount of bats (25% K rate), and Oakland has the perfect stadium for his flyball tendencies. That adds up to a helluva reliever. My love for strikeouts probably kept Jim Johnson and Eric O’Flaherty off of my list or it was just the overwhelming amount of depth at the position making it nearly impossible to whittle it down to 10. O’Flaherty has been insane the last four years with a 1.95 ERA and like a 2 million percent groundball rate. Seriously, it’s been 55-57-56-66(!!) percent the last four years meanwhile he has struck out 20% or more guys in three of the four years so he isn’t completely incapable of bat-missing. I was also impressed that The Shredder didn’t overrate Jonathan Papelbon and gave Koji Uehara some big love. All told, this was probably my favorite list because they gave middle relievers deserved love and their differences from my list were pretty strong. That said, Motte was a huge miss.

My inclusions he didn’t list: David Hernandez, Joe Nathan, David Robertson, and Jason Motte

Middle relievers: 4 (Kenley Jansen isn’t starting the year as the closer)

Bill James

Bill, Bill, Bill. You’re my dawg, but Papelbon #2?? No, just no. I pretty much blocked out everything else at that point: the inclusions of Motte and Nathan, the Rodney love, the Sergio Romo exclusion, all of it was forgotten for better or worse because the godfather of sabermetrics and objective analysis threw Jonathan Papelbon second on his list of relievers RIGHT NOW showing a clear bias toward his Red Sox (for whom Bill works as an advisor). John Axford was a little high for me, but his inclusion isn’t too problematic. This is a dude who fans 30% of the batters he’s faced for three years running. He gave up a quarter of his 2012 runs (36) in three games with a trio of three-run outings from June 10th to July 29th. And he was also saddled with a 19% HR/FB rate, it’s probably not a bad idea to bet on some improvement for 2013.

My inclusions he didn’t list: Hernandez, Uehara, Robertson, and Romo

Middle relievers: 1 (and maybe two if Ryan Madson closes for LAA) 

Mitch Williams

Everyone else worked under the assumption that Aroldis Champan is going to be a starter (primarily because he is), but not ol’ Bobbles. OK, so you’re trying to make a big call, but why not just work under the same conecit everyone else did and add a disclaimer that you have Chapman second and think he’ll be closing by Memorial Day or something? Apart from that, his list isn’t too bad despite five disagreements between us. It’d really only be four without the Chapman thing because as he mentioned in the video linked in the opening, Motte was his #11. Finally, someone gives Robertson some attention, which he richly deserves.

My inclusions he didn’t list: Hernandez, Nathan, Motte, Jansen, and Romo

Middle relievers: 3

Starting pitchers: 1

Brian Kenny

How could you do this to me, Brian? You’re my boy, blue! The critical thinker himself, Mr. Next Level Stats who firmly believes the closer mentality is garbage (I don’t fully agree, btw) chimes in with ZERO middle relievers in his list. Or maybe one with Ernesto Frieri, but he’s an assumed closer in many circles at this point. I’m not suggesting you should shoehorn non-closers in if you don’t think they belong, I’m just wondering how he thinks they don’t belong?! Papelbon at 4? Are Soriano and Johnson really better than all middle relievers? He pointed out multiple times how Mitch had more middle relievers than James only to come to the table with a goose egg himself. I was surprised for sure!

My inclusions he didn’t list: Hernandez, Uehara, Robertson, and Jansen (all 4 of my MRs of course)

Middle relievers: 0

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I’ll reiterate once more that I know these are just fun and any exasperation I show is reasoned exasperation. I’m not taking these lists too seriously or cultivating hate for any of the panelists. I truly enjoy this series quite a bit and I’ve had fun agonizing over my own lists.

Posted in Baseball, MLB Network, Off-Season, Player Focus, Rankings, Relievers, Top 10 | 10 Comments »

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Tuesday: 01.22.2013

Top 10 SP – Review

On Friday night, MLB Network unleashed their Top 10 Starting Pitchers Right Now along with input from host Brian Kenny, co-host John Smoltz, and special guest to the series Bill James. The results were interesting and perhaps unsurprisingly, I had more gripes with this list than I have any of the previous ones.

Here are all four lists from MLB Network-related folks and then I’ll address them separately:

top10SPListsThe Shredder

Let’s start with the list that comes from their objective machine they call “The Shredder”. Kenny suggests that it is cold and calculated in its evaluation relying heavily on the most recent season, but also not forgetting track record. I have to call heaping amounts of BS on it. It just doesn’t add up. First off, it you’re focusing on “RIGHT NOW”, then how does Roy Halladay still finish fourth? There has to be a lot of subjectivity used to get him there. But that’s far from the most egregious infraction.

If this is supposed to be the most objective tool relying on data only for projection analysis, how does Chris Sale not only make the list, but finish ahead of Stephen Strasburg, Cole Hamels, and reigning Cy Young winner David Price? It had to rely heavily on track record (or pure subjectivity) to get Halladay that high, so then track record would send Hamels and Price rocketing past Sale. Meanwhile, Sale wasn’t better than them last year, either.

Strasburg is probably skewed because he threw just 160 innings, but he was so stellar in that allotted time that it is still a surprise to see him so low. Plus, since I think they had to finagle things to get Halladay that high, surely they could’ve just done the same to get Strasburg into a more reasonable slot. Whatever the case is, I’m done believing that The Shredder is purely objective on any level. And if it is coming to these conclusions based on the data it is being fed, it’s broken and Master Splinter does in fact need to take over.

Maybe I got too caught up in Jered Weaver’s peripherals when leaving him out because I didn’t even give him an honorable mention. I recognize the fact that he is a damn fine pitcher, but I am a strikeout whore and looking over the numbers again I think I focused too much on the plummeting strikeout rate and not enough on his incredible ability to keep runners off the bases, specifically by preventing hits. I still think six is a little high, but I can see how he would fit nicely at 10 bumping the NL version of him (Matt Cain) up to nine and Gio Gonzalez getting moved to an honorable mention.

My inclusions they didn’t list: Cain, Gonzalez, and R.A. Dickey

Bill James

Without treading over well-worn ground too much again, I just can’t see how on a “RIGHT NOW” list James saw fit to put teammates Cliff Lee and Hamels so far below Halladay who is 36 and coming off of an injury-marred season. Plus there’s the fact that he and the Phillies were going to start discussing an extension, but worries about his shoulder scared them off a bit. I still love Halladay as an undervalued fantasy commodity, but as the #4 pitcher right now, I’m a bit more skeptical.

James was the only one to list C.C. Sabathia which I think says more about the depth at the top of the pitching heap than anything else. I certainly don’t fault James for including him nor would I have faulted any of the other participants. He was basically tied with Adam Wainwright on my list at that 13/14 spot, but I gave Waino the mention because I honestly thought CC would appear on most of the lists and didn’t need the extra love.

My inclusions he didn’t list: Cain, Gonzalez, and Dickey

John Smoltz

Smoltzie’s list was close to being my favorite list but including Sale at the expense of Lee was just too much to overlook. Frankly, it doesn’t even matter if Lee wasn’t 11th, just the inclusion of Sale over many more deserving (at least in my estimation) candidates is tough for me. I’m not anti-Sale overall, just when it comes to ranking him this high among the best pitchers right now. Another big season in 2013 could elevate him onto my list next winter, but he hasn’t done enough to pass enough all of these guys just yet.

My inclusions he didn’t list: Gonzalez, Dickey, and Lee

Brian Kenny

I guess by sheer virtue of the fact that we had the most matches (eight), Kenny’s list should be my favorite, but it boggles my mind how he could wind up with Price at nine. Apart from that, our lists are pretty close on the matches we had usually off by just a spot, maybe two, and we had three direct matches (JV, Strasburg, and Hamels). He was adamant about getting Dickey on his list and was the only one to do so which obviously I support, but I just kept coming back to the Price thing. If you go off of mostly last year, then Price has to go above Weaver (and obviously Halladay) and even when you factor in track record, it’s not like Price is without one. You’d have to weigh track record pretty heavily to Halladay above Price which I thought went against the conceit of these lists.

My inclusions he didn’t list: Cain and Gonzalez

All in all, I know these lists are still just fun and filled with opinion (yes, even yours Shredder), but I can’t make sense of it sometimes when arguments supporting guys contradict where you rated them or others.

I’ve still got my reliever review upcoming and then the LF and RF lists are due this week before Friday night’s airings.

Posted in Baseball, MLB Network, Off-Season, Player Focus, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Top 10 | 11 Comments »

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Friday: 01.18.2013

Top 10 Starting Pitchers Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will continue the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will air both the relief and starting pitcher shows on Friday evening. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air.

This is not a fantasy list!!

(Ed. note: I swore my DVR said the reliever episode was first which is why I posted that list first. Sorry about that!)

This list was even harder than the relievers one as I just want to include so many guys. To spare you, the reader, I’m only going to include a few of honorable mentions.

Roy Halladay (PHI) – Since it is “right now”, I couldn’t justify his inclusion coming off of an injury-marred season that was easily his worst since 2004. From a fantasy angle (which isn’t entirely relevant in this NON FANTASY list) I still think he’s being criminally underrated early on in mock drafts and rankings I’ve seen, but he’s not a top 10 guy right now.

C.C. Sabathia (NYY) – This has a lot more to do with how deep the top of the starting pitcher pool is than anything Sabathia hasn’t done. There are no obviously flaws in his games, he’s absolutely amazing, but there are only 10 spots, so he’s on the outside.

Yu Darvish (TEX) – I couldn’t just play favorites and put Darvish in ahead of more deserving candidates. He took a while to get his feet under him last year and while I think he will show his top 10 worthiness this year, this list is about right now as opposed to projection. So it is with great pain that I leave Darvish out.

Also: Adam Wainwright (he was great coming off of TJ, but not great enough to include just yet.)

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THE LIST

10. Matt Cain (SF) – See what I mean? Leaving Cain off would’ve felt silly yet that’s what I would have to do to get Darvish included. Track record doesn’t weigh heavily on a “right now” list, but even just the 2012 track record favors Cain in terms of pure results. He’s awesome and he’s getting better each year. He doesn’t post the gaudy strikeout totals I drool over, but he’s proven you can be great with just a solid 20ish percent rate.

9. Gio Gonzalez (WAS) – If you think this rating is crazy, you haven’t watched him pitch enough. He keeps adding to his strikeout rate going from 20 percent in 2010 to an NL-best 25 percent last year. Meanwhile he made his first real dent in his walk rate last year dropping it a full percentage point to nine, which isn’t great, but easier to overlook when a quarter of the guys you face are walking back to the dugout after three strikes.

8. R.A. Dickey (TOR) – Absurd. Just completely absurd. His 2012 season was so freaking incredible. Seemingly out of nowhere, he ups his strikeout rate from 15.3 to 24.8 percent while actually incrementally improving his walk rate from 6.2 to 5.8 percent. Just bananas. He deservingly won the NL Cy Young and now gets to peddle his wares in the AL East with Toronto. I basically had Dickey and the next two guys neck and neck so I used track record as the tiebreaker. I’d still take these next two over him in a one-game situation.

7. Cole Hamels (PH) – When you factor out how much I’m responsible for myself, Hamels just doesn’t get enough love as an ace-level pitcher. Part of it is that he’s obscured by his rotation mates, but part of it is just that I think some fail to recognize how great he’s been the last three years. He had the 8th-best strikeout rate (24.9 percent) in the majors last year among qualified starters and only Dickey bested his 6.0 percent walk rate among those eight and it was by 0.1 percent.

6. Cliff Lee (PHI) – How did he win six games and fan 207 batters last year? I know wins and strikeouts don’t exactly go together, but the point is that he was just too good to be saddled with such a lame record (6-9). He walked a laughable 28 guys in all last year, too. His 3.3 percent walk rate was baseball’s best by nearly a full percent over Bronson Arroyo and Joe Blanton (4.2) and then of course there is the fact that he was also light years better than them in every other skill-based metric.

5. Felix Hernandez (SEA) – The top five were pretty easy for me in terms of who belonged in it. You can quibble over the order, but the group should be pretty consistent among anyone making such a list. Listing Felix fifth just doesn’t feel right, but I don’t see how I could get him any higher even as he continues to dominate. A career-best six percent walk rate accompanied fifth straight spike in strikeout rate, though just a small bit from 23 percent in 2011 to 23.8 last year. Oh, and he threw a perfect game.

4. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) – There is little doubt in my mind that he could’ve gone well past his innings limit without issue, but the Nats painted themselves into a corner. In the 159 innings he did throw, he was simply amazing. If he had qualified (requires 162 innings), his 30.2 percent strikeout rate would’ve topped Max Scherzer’s gaudy 29.4 mark for baseball’s best. He has three excellent pitches that he uses to devastate hitters. His changeup might be the best of the bunch generating a ridiculous 29 percent swing-and-miss rate. It was accountable 53 percent of his 197 strikeouts, too.

3. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – As I mentioned earlier, I thought Dickey was a deserving Cy Young winner, but he wasn’t the only deserving candidate. Kershaw was right there and you can probably argue that wins and a great story are the only things that cost Kershaw a repeat. He led baseball in ERA for a second straight season, posted the same 6.7 H/9 mark which not only led the NL like it did in 2011, but all of baseball this time, and he led the NL in WHIP for the second straight season 1.02. His 14-9 record plus not being a knuckleball journeyman likely did him in.

2. David Price (TB) – Price showed flashes of greatness in 2010, though his 2.72 ERA was probably a bit more favorable than his numbers seemed to “deserve”. Then in 2011, he went the other way improving his underlying numbers and likely should’ve ended up with a result better than his 3.49 ERA. He finally found the right potion in 2012 repeating his 2011 base skills (24% Ks, 7% BBs) while adding a crapton of groundballs (moving 44 to 53% groundball rate) and sharpening up with runners on (moving from 73 to 81%, second to only Jeremy Hellickson at 83%) to turn in a Cy Young performance. His curveball was the driving force yielding a meager 368 OPS and generating 44 percent of his 205 strikeouts.

1. Justin Verlander (DET) – Verlander had an amazing follow up campaign to his Cy Young/MVP season in 2011 and like Kershaw, he had a very strong case for a repeat at Cy Young, but it wasn’t to be for him. He lost out by four points (whereas Dickey inexplicably crushed Kershaw, whose repeat case was probably stronger than JV’s). He again paced the entire league in innings and total strikeouts, but dropped seven wins off that flashy 24 count from last year dropping below the famed 20-mark.

By the way, Verlander is an instructive case for why I’m referencing strikeout percentage a lot more these days. He had an 8.96 K/9 in 2011 and 9.03 K/9 last year so there’ll be plenty of analysis stating that “he even raised his strikeouts!!!”, but he didn’t actually do that. He fanned 25.8 percent of batters in his dream season of 2011, compared to a flat 25 percent last year. Small difference, but important nonetheless.

Despite not winning any end of season awards, I doubt you will get much argument on Verlander as the best pitcher in the game, though the latest chic thing to do is to project a 2013 injury for him based on these recent workloads. It’s the most risk-less “bold” prediction you can make, so don’t fall into the trap of doing so to appear ballsy. Predicting any pitcher to get hurt is like guessing that Lindsay Lohan will be arrested soon. Both are ticking time bombs. Always.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, MLB Network, Player Focus, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Top 10 | 4 Comments »

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Friday: 01.18.2013

Top 10 Relief Pitchers Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will continue the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will air both the relief and starting pitcher shows on Friday evening. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air.

This is not a fantasy list!!

My guess is that MLBN will rely a bit too heavily on saves here and lean toward closers, but I’m going for the best relievers regardless of role. This was pretty tough because I could’ve made a legitimate case for quite a few guys who didn’t wind up on my 10. In fact, my honorable mention list could’ve run 10-15 deep. Instead, here are just a few.

Sean Marshall (CIN) – Since these lists stress the “Right Now” aspect, considering Marshall’s track record too heavily would go against the conceit of the lists. And since he is coming off of his worst year against righties (750 OPS), he lost out on a spot. He obliterates lefties (410 OPS) and has plenty of previous success against righties to avoid the LOOGY status, but his rough start likely cost him a spot here. He had a 4.15 ERA in 17.3 innings through May, but then just a 1.85 ERA the rest of the way in 43.7 innings.

Jonathan Papelbon (PHI) – He was hardly bad in 2012, but some chinks in the armor did pop up (namely the home runs and the margins are so thin here that any small ding could cost you a spot on the list. I will state clearly that this has nothing to do with my disdain for Papelbon. I want to make the best list possible and I ended choosing my #10 over Papelbon after a couple flips back-and-forth between the two.

Jake McGee (TB) – A lefty who throws 96? How the hell is that fair? To say he dominated right-handers last year is a gross understatement. They managed a .098/.157/.134 line–that’s a 291 OPS for those keeping score–all while striking out 36 percent of the time. With these honorable mentions, there really aren’t reasons why they didn’t make the list. The top 10 was just so rich that the runoff seems entirely snubbed given how deserving they are on their own merits.

Tyler Clippard (WAS) – Remember when he stranded 96 percent of runners in 2011? So sick. He’s still awesome, just not quite top 10 awesome. Hell, neither are his bullpen mates, Drew Storen and Rafael Soriano.

Darren O’Day (BAL) – If we were doing A-Rod’s list, he might be number one. O’Day was 5th in win probability added for relievers last year while teammate Jim Johnson was tops by a good margin. O’Day just missed and Johnson wasn’t given much consideration ranking around 20 or so. It’s probably my whorishness for strikeouts. Sorry, Jimmy-J.

Sorry as well to: Jason Grilli (homers), Rafael Betancourt (drop in Ks), Al Alburquerque (innings), Kelvin Herrera (Ks didn’t stack up), Ernesto Frieri (walks), and Joel Peralta (homers).

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MLBNtopRP

THE LIST

10. David Hernandez (ARI) – The D’Backs better not even consider giving the 8th inning to Heath Bell setting up J.J. Putz as Hernandez handled it masterfully last year and continues to get better each year. He is a flyball pitcher, but maintains a 0.5 HR/9 because 15 percent of his flyball stays in the infield. In the mortal division (non-Kimbrel & Aroldis), his 35 percent strikeout rate was good 5th while his 7.9 percent walk rate was best among those five.

9. Koji Uehara (BOS) – How does he only get $4.25 million from Boston this offseason? That is a steal, especially juxtaposed against the 2/$28 mil that Washington is paying Soriano (and I like Sori). Even missing two months, he deserved more than a $250,000 dollar raise for his work. He had a 14.3 K/BB! He hates walks. In fact, he hates walking. He moves briskly everywhere he goes often breaking into a trot or jog. He walked three batters in 36 innings last year. Carlos Marmol walked three batters in a game three times last year.

8. Joe Nathan (TEX) – Homers ate him up a bit at home (1.7 HR/9) or his sparkling numbers (2.80 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) would’ve been even better. And he was 37 years old.

7. Fernando Rodney (TB) – Who would have bet that Rodney would appear on a list like this… ever? Chalk one up for the “change of scenery” factor working and how. The Rays remade Rodney and he became one of baseball’s best relievers recapturing his strikeout-per-inning stuff while walking next to nobody (far and away a career-best 5 percent BB rate and 1.8 BB/9; previous best was 9 & 3.5). His velo even spiked a bit up to a career high 98.2 MPH on his four-seamer making his 83 MPH changeup that much more devastating.

6. David Robertson (NYY) – He experienced the worst timed injury ever going down in early May shortly after getting the closer’s role once Mariano Rivera went down. Robertson had been missing bats like crazy for four years, but it was always paired with a walk rate of 12 percent or worse. That changed last year when he cut it to just 7.7 percent with little cost to his strikeouts (dipped from an obscene 37 percent to a still-excellent 33 percent). He’s added a groundball element to his game the last two years only adding to his effectiveness.

5. Kenley Jansen (LAD) – An irregular heartbeat could barely tame Jansen, though it did cost him about half of September. He’s usually the one doling out irregular heartbeats, terrifying batters into submission with his filthy cutter which he throws almost exclusively (93 percent of the time). When a pitch is that good, why throw anything else? Sounds like another reliever we all know pretty well.

4. Jason Motte (StL) – Completely embraced the closer’s role en route his best across-the-board season yet in a career-high 72 innings. His 2.75 ERA was up from 2011’s 2.25, but the WHIP dropped from 0.96 to 0.92 while his strikeout rate spiked majorly to 31 percent without impacting his 6 percent walk rate. I think he is one of the more underrated relievers in the game, but that could just be my perception of him. I guess we’ll see tonight on the lists of those involved in the show.

3. Sergio Romo (SF) – While I’m constantly annoyed at how much the Giants baby Romo, I understand it. It’s probably not a surprise that he posted his best year in 2011 when they limited him to just 48 innings (1.50 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 40% K rate, 14.0 K/BB). I’m just being selfish because I want to see flat-out embarrass grown men with his NSFW slider, rated second best in the majors last year per pitch values. His arm may one day accompany the ball to the plate, but until then, enjoy this diminutive badass.

2. Mariano Rivera (NYY) – This was obviously the toughest ranking. He had to be included despite throwing just eight innings last year before tearing his ACL, but how high? It wasn’t a leg injury and he hasn’t seen his dominance diminish at all yet, so I felt comfortable slotting the 43-year old right here. He doesn’t have the same gaudy numbers as a lot of these guys, but he is still fanning a quarter of the batters he faces and his walk rate was actually on the decline from 4.8 in 2010 to 3.4 in 2011, though it ticked up a bit to 6.3 (still great) last year in his tiny sample.

1. Craig Kimbrel (ATL) – He’s on a different plane. If you put up his numbers in a video game, your friends would tell you to get real and up the difficulty. He’s doing it on All-Madden (mixed sport metaphors FTW!). His 40+ percent strikeout rate dropped our jaws, but he wasn’t satisfied so he dropped a 50 burger on our faces fanning precisely 50.2 percent of the batters he faced last year. Major league batters. And for good measure, he nearly sliced his walk rate in half dropping from 10.5 to 6.1 percent.

No one stood a prayer against him evidenced obviously by everything I’ve already shared, but also his .126 batting average against. His 19.2 swinging strike rate was tops in baseball to the surprise of absolutely nobody. He got 40 percent of his strikeouts on three pitches. If he got two strikes on a batter, they hit .068/.112/.105 and struck out 68 percent of the time. I could keep going, but I think you get the point. This was an easy choice.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, MLB Network, Player Focus, Rankings, Relievers, Top 10 | 13 Comments »

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Tuesday: 01.15.2013

Top 10 2B – Review

My DVR is more interested in doing what it wants rather than what I program it to do so I didn’t get a chance to watch the top 10 second basemen show over the weekend as it did not record Friday night. The replay schedule by the MLBN was odd as they re-showed the CF episode four or five times on Saturday and Sunday with no 2B replays thrown in. It is water under the proverbial bridge, though, since I have now seen it and I can present their lists to you compared to mine.

Harold Reynolds was the guest analyst and on Monday’s Clubhouse Confidential, we actually got a look at Brian Kenny’s personal list, too. As I mentioned in the CF post, Bill James is contributing his lists this year, too. Let’s start with MLBN’s machineamajig, The Shredder.

Shredder (my rank):

10. Daniel Murphy (UR)

9. Jason Kipnis (UR)

8. Howard Kendrick (6)

7. Neil Walker (8)

6. Dan Uggla (UR)

5. Brandon Phillips (4)

4. Ian Kinsler (5)

3. Chase Utley (9)

2. Dustin Pedroia (2)

1. Robinson Cano (1)

Three disagreements between my list and The Shredder, just like with the CF list. Jason Kipnis isn’t surprising as I mentioned how close he was to making my list, but ended up at 11 when it was all said and done. I’ll spoil something right here and tell you that this is the only one of the four MLBN-related lists with Daniel Murphy. He was never a consideration for me. He was really good in 2011 (in 109 games), but basically average in 2012. I think The Shredder was way off here.

Even though he wasn’t mentioned with Jose Altuve and Kipnis in my just-missed blurb, Dan Uggla was close. For me, there were just too many more complete players to find room for him especially as we get further and further away from his excellent 2010 season. His 2011 was salvaged by a big second half and the fact that his power was always there (career-high 36 HR), but last year he flopped again and only hit 19 homers.

Where the hell is Ben Zobrist? We know from the CF episode that they are considering where guys are slated to play for 2013 because they included Shin-Soo Choo on their list. And Zobrist actually played second base for 37 percent of his games last year with plenty of experience before 2012, too. Terrible omission.

Harold Reynolds (my rank):

10. Chase Utley (9)

9. Danny Espinosa (7)

8. Rickie Weeks (UR)

7. Aaron Hill (10)

6. Howard Kendrick (6)

5. Marco Scutaro (UR)

4. Ian Kinsler (5)

3. Dustin Pedroia (2)

2. Brandon Phillips (4)

1. Robinson Cano (1)

Only two differences between Reynolds and myself, should I be concerned? Ours were the only lists with Espinosa, too. We were more or less in lockstep on our agreements, too. I rarely agree with Reynolds’ ideas when he’s on Clubhouse Confidential or MLB Tonight so that’s why I find it so interesting how much we agree here.

Where the hell is Zobrist?

Bill James (my rank):

10. Dan Uggla (UR)

9. Rickie Weeks (UR)

8. Jason Kipnis (UR)

7. Aaron Hill (10)

6. Chase Utley (9)

5. Marco Scutaro (UR)

4. Brandon Phillips (4)

3. Ian Kinsler (5)

2. Dustin Pedroia (2)

1. Robinson Cano (1)

OK, I admit it, I should’ve had Kipnis on my list, but the Scutaro love is horribly short-sighted. I guess his great 61 games with San Francisco (plus playoffs) eliminate his terrible 95 with Colorado. Oh, and his entirely nondescript, below average decade of performance prior to 2012. The fifth best second baseman in baseball? I’m a big-time James guy, but that’s just bad.

There were grumblings throughout the show from just about everyone who appeared on it that second base is this wasteland, but I’m just not seeing it. I didn’t even have Kipnis, Altuve, R.Weeks, Uggla, Scutaro, or Murphy on my list let alone Darwin Barney, who is arguably the best defender at the position, and other capable guys like Omar Infante, Dustin Ackley, or Kelly Johnson who all deserve a modicum of consideration if we are putting Scutaro on the list. This is simply not a thin position.

Where the hell is Zobrist?

Brian Kenny (my rank):

10. Marco Scutaro (UR)

9. Brandon Phillips (4)

8. Rickie Weeks (UR)

7. Neil Walker (8)

6. Jason Kipnis (UR)

5. Aaron Hill (10)

4. Ian Kinsler (4)

3. Chase Utley (9)

2. Dustin Pedroia (2)

1. Robinson Cano (1)

Kenny let me down. I thought for sure he’d remedy the problem. Alas, where the hell is Zobrist? For someone as stats-oriented as Kenny who has touted Zobrist’s value in the advanced metrics, I’m surprised he missed him. There’s really no excuse for it from any of them. He wasn’t even mentioned on the show.

That’s a pretty aggressive ranking for Hill, but Kenny buys his 2012. He’s shown the power on more than one occasion before 2012 and the speed emerged in 2011 so it’s just a matter of whether he hits somewhere near his .302 from 2012 or the .225 he hit from 2010-2011. Obviously I liked a few guys more, but I don’t bring this up to quibble with it, rather to highlight it as a discussion point.

—

These lists caused some consternation among one All-Star second sacker and he took to Twitter to voice his concerns in a most-hilarious way:

I wonder if Phillips objects to my #4 ranking of him. I had him #3 initially, but eventually landed with Zobrist a bit higher. I was bummed to see Phillips’ walk rate tumble a full two percentage points as it really sliced into his OBP. If he had walked 44 times like he has the last three years on average, his OBP would’ve jumped from .321 to .346 and his output would look quite a bit better since he essentially matched everything else from 2011.

As I mentioned in the CF review, my SP and RP top 10s are coming up later this week to prepare for Friday’s shows.

Where the hell is Zobrist?

Posted in Baseball, MLB Network, Off-Season, Player Focus, Rankings, Second Base, Top 10 | 18 Comments »

Monday: 01.14.2013

Top 10 CF – Review

I mentioned in the post with my centerfielder list that it would be a bit difficult because of the transition at the position. Should Mike Trout really qualify since he’s unlikely to play there much in 2013? How about Bryce Harper? I didn’t even really consider Shin-Soo Choo because he hasn’t yet played there for Cincinnati, but he was all over the MLBN lists. I love his bat, but his defense is a big fat TBD. For the record, I don’t think he’ll be abysmal or even bad. Probably just average.

Let’s take a look at how things shook out on the show.

Their primary list comes from The Shredder, which if you’ve watched Clubhouse Confidential at all (and you should be), you know is their device that churns out their projections and assessments of players based on the data. Sometimes not even Brian Kenny, their resident stats-guy, agrees with The Shredder and the former-ballplayer-turned-analyst never does. New twist this year is they get lists from Bill James, too!

Shredder (my rank):

10. Michael Bourn (3)

9. Adam Jones (7)

8. Jon Jay (NR)

7. Curtis Granderson (10)

6. Shin-Soo Choo (NR)

5. Jacoby Ellsbury (NR)

4. Austin Jackson (4)

3. Matt Kemp (5)

2. Andrew McCutchen (2)

1. Mike Trout (1)

Shredder matched seven of my selections including three perfect matches. It inexplicably had Bourn at 10 which led me to believe it isn’t counting defense all that much. I found that ranking patently absurd. Inclusions of Jay, Choo, and Ellsbury don’t bother one bit, but rating Bourn that low just doesn’t compute for me.

Jay is probably surprising to a lot of folks and it definitely raised my eyebrow when I saw him pop up about 6 minutes into the show, but upon further inspection, it’s not a bad selection at all. Just not over Bourn. Jay is 14th in fWAR the last two years for CFs and his 110 wRC+ is 10th ranked. He isn’t a power guy at all with just 14 homers the last two years, but his .301/.359/.412 is pretty strong, especially that .359 OBP.

Bill Ripken (my rank):

10. B.J. Upton (6)

9. Shin-Soo Choo (NR)

8. Curtis Granderson (10)

7. Michael Bourn (3)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (NR)

5. Austin Jackson (4)

4. Matt Kemp (5)

3. Adam Jones (7)

2. Andrew McCutchen (2)

1. Mike Trout (1)

Maybe I’m overrating Bourn? Seven if better than 10, but I’m still surprised he’s rated out of the top five, especially from someone who is proud to ignore stats like Ripken. I figured he’d praise Bourn for “playing the game the right way”, moving the runner along, and his defense. He saved his praise for Jones who he feels will be an MVP candidate in 2013. At least Ripken got Upton in there. C’mon Shredder.

Bill James (my rank):

10. Angel Pagan (NR)

9. Michael Bourn (3)

8. Shin-Soo Choo (NR)

7. Austin Jackson (4)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (NR)

5. Adam Jones (7)

4. Curtis Granderson (10)

3. Matt Kemp (5)

2. Mike Trout (1)

1. Andrew McCutchen (2)

OK fine, I’m overrating Bourn. Whatever! I don’t feel bad leaving out Ellsbury. I see an MVP-type season sandwiched around 92 terrible games the last three years. With the list being Top 10 RIGHT NOW, I can’t see how he has a very strong case, especially for the mid-list rankings he pulled on all three lists. Show me something, Jacoby.

Is it bad that Ripken and I had the most matches with eight? I matched seven apiece with The Shredder and James. Unique to my list were Harper at 9 and Denard Span at 8. Shredder went it alone with Jay, all 10 of Ripken’s appeared elsewhere, and James flew solo on Pagan.

I’ll do the 2B review soon and then SPs and RPs coming up later this week.

Posted in Baseball, Centerfield, MLB Network, Off-Season, Rankings, Top 10 | 16 Comments »

Friday: 01.11.2013

Top 10 Second Basemen Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will fire up the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will start with the both the centerfield and second basemen shows. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air.                                           This is not a fantasy list!!

SECOND BASEMEN

This position isn’t nearly as crowded as centerfield. In fact I don’t even really see the need for detailed honorable mentions. I had Jose Altuve close and Jason Kipnis even a bit closer, but I was pretty set on this top 10.

10. Aaron Hill (ARI) – Kipnis could’ve taken this spot and for some, I’m sure he will. Kip’s first season started off nicely, but faded quickly and sputtered to the finish. Hill, meanwhile, has truly been all over the map since entering the league in 2005 sometimes looking like a superstar and other times barely deserving a starting role. Even at the times the bat has lagged, he has been pretty solid in the field throughout.

9. Chase Utley (PHI) – It’s not really about skill with Utley as he still has tons of it, but obviously the injuries have stacked up and conspired to limit him to just 301 games the last three years. That alone has him buried on this list.

8. Neil Walker (PIT) – You may not remember that Walker was a four-time top 100 prospect by Baseball America from 2005-2008, though that was a catcher then third baseman. He has settled in at second and really started to put together a nice career. He remains one of the game’s bests at the position, though somewhat overlooked as he doesn’t have that one standout skill.

7. Danny Espinosa (WAS) – The defense has always been there for Espinosa so being about a league-average bat the last two years has really heightened his overall value, though the Nats would no doubt love to see him swing-and-miss a good bit less. As is, the 26-year old remains a positive asset, but looking at his skills and seeing how good he can be when he’s on fire, it’s hard not to think there is more in there ready to be untapped.

6. Howie Kendrick (LAA) – While maybe he has failed against the lofty expectations that had him winning multiple batting titles, Kendrick is undoubtedly putting together a successful career. He finally appears to be past the injury bug and he delivers in all three facets of the game making him one of the best, but also most underrated second basemen in the league.

5. Ian Kinsler (TEX) – His struggles are clouded a bit by the fact that he was still a fantasy beast so you might not realize he was essentially league-average. His fielding and base running have been huge assets making him a complete second baseman and one of the best in the game.

4. Brandon Phillips (CIN) – The glove, oh man the glove. I love watching him play defense. His defense elevated him here, though he still has a quality bat and does tremendous work on the base paths. The biggest change in his game last year that led to a ho-hum offensive line was the drop in walk rate. He had established himself at the seven percent level for four years before dropping to 4.5 percent last year. Hopefully it’s an aberration.

3. Ben Zobrist (TB) – Baseball’s best Swiss Army Knife, Zobrist is usually pulling double or triple duty across the diamond for the Rays, but the addition of Yunel Escobar moves him to second on a more permanent basis. He may spend some time in the outfield, but with 189 of his last 313 games at second (60 percent), he is getting ranked at this position. Oh, and all that moving around the diamond has taken nothing away from his hitting as he has been one of the best players in all of baseball the last four years.

2. Dustin Pedroia (BOS) – What doesn’t this guy do well? He has it all: huge bat, amazing glove, and brilliant base running (including an 80 percent career success rate). When a 797 OPS is a “fade”, you know you’ve set the bar pretty high. He’s still better than all but one.

1. Robinson Cano (NYY) – Duh-doy! Seriously, do I really need to expound on it? He’s lapping the field with the bat all while continually improving his defense to an above average level. He’s so good and he is just turning 30.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, MLB Network, Player Focus, Rankings, Second Base, Top 10 | 16 Comments »

Friday: 01.11.2013

Top 10 Centerfielders Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will fire up the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will start with the both the centerfield and second basemen shows. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air. Again, this is not a fantasy list.

CENTERFIELDERS

This was a bit tough because there is some legitimate transition at this position. Because it is a premier defensive position, we have some guys who are excellent with the leather, but lagging with the bat so deciding their fate was difficult. As such, I did some honorable mentions to cover these cases:

Chris Young (OAK) – He grades out extremely well with the defensive metrics even if your metric of choice happens to be your eyes, but his offense has never been great and has been on the decline since 2010’s peak. He’s now in a playing time crunch in Oakland.

Josh Hamilton (LAA) – He has been in center for exactly 52 percent of the time the last two years (130-of-250) with modest results. He is unlikely to see a single game there in 2013 or perhaps ever again as two of the best centerfielders will be playing in the same outfield with him.

Peter Bourjos (LAA) – A near-shoo-in for the 2014 iteration of this list, Bourjos is arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the game, but he was limited to just 195 plate appearances last year because his production at the dish imploded after a strong 2011. I feel like my list reflects how seriously I consider defense, it’s not just a list sorted by OPS, but Bourjos just didn’t do enough in the follow up to his breakout 2011 to warrant a spot.

Cameron Maybin (SD) – Similar to Bourjos in that almost all of his value is coming from his defense and base running right now with a lagging bat, except Maybin is logging 560-ish plate appearances of modest to poor bat work. Don’t even worry about bringing Petco Park, either. He was far worse on the road last year with a disgusting 572 OPS in 269 plate appearances

Ben Revere (PHI) – Revere is a ridiculously good defensive outfielder, but his time has been split between right and center with the best work being done in the former. The Phillies paid a handsome fee to the Twins for Revere’s services in order to make him a full-time centerfielder. He may well wind up on the 2014 list like Bourjos, but for now he’s merely an honorable mention.

10. Curtis Granderson (NYY) – Grandy was so exceptional with the bat in 2011 that most overlooked any defensive foibles, but when the bat regressed in 2012 his issues in center were exacerbated. He has really struggled with what the Fielding Bible labels as “Deep” plays the last two years which has result in some poor grades across all the defensive metrics. The bat and base running make a net-positive as a centerfielder, but the diminishing defense holds him back.

9. Bryce Harper (WAS) – He spent 92 of his 138 games kicking butt in centerfield during his rookie year, but the Nats set the precedent for the Phillies by also paying the Twins a handsome fee for a big time centerfielder when they acquired Denard Span at the end of November. Span has a deep enough track record in the field and with the bat so if he is healthy, he’s their guy in center and that’s why Harper is buried on the list. I’ll be interested to see how MLBN handles these cases since they won’t technically enter 2013 as centerfielders, but we know without question that they are very capable centerfielders.

8. Denard Span (WAS) – And here he is. I love Span’s defense, he is definitely one of the best out there with the glove and hopefully his concussion issues are behind him so he can stay on the field. He rebounded last year from a two year lull with the bat, but not quite to his exceptional level from 2008-2009. He still owns those bat skills and when combined with his defense, he is a near-elite centerfield.

7. Adam Jones (BAL) – His defensive reputation is definitely substantial as evidenced by a pair of Gold Gloves, but I don’t see an elite glove when watching him. I see some great player, but otherwise he’s a good-not-great defender. The defensive metrics aren’t particularly fond of him, especially for a two-time hardware winner, but reality and perception are often far apart when it comes to the Gold Gloves. Elsewhere, his bat continues to advance so even modest defense makes him a tremendous asset for Baltimore.

6. B.J. Upton (ATL) – This is one where my eyes and the metrics just don’t marry well. I see a silky smooth defender who uses his speed well and makes a lot of amazing plays. I think Upton has to fend off a lot of heat being labeled a disappointment because he isn’t a superstar and it looked like he would become one after 2007. He has been a remarkably consistent player value-wise save a 2009 blip in which he still delivered 2.4 fWAR. He was paid like a star for a reason, he is one.

5. Matt Kemp (LAD) – This is like an amped up Granderson case. Kemp’s bat is phenomenal, one of the absolute best in baseball the last two years even with him playing just 106 games last year. But his defense, while improved, still leaves something to be desired. I feel like he has been improving a lot since that debacle across-the-board in 2010, but the metrics are still down on him. If this were a fantasy list, he likely wouldn’t fall past two or three, but since we’re focusing on the complete package, he is down here.

4. Austin Jackson (DET) – I went back and forth on A-Jax and almost slotted him as high as second because I think his defense is truly elite and the bat took a major, sustainable step forward last year. Of course, he has just the one elite year with the bat so his outstanding glove earns him the four-spot. While the hitting improvements are definitely viable, he still has to go out and prove it with a strong follow-up.

3. Michael Bourn (FA) – Bourn hasn’t reached 105 wRC+ once in the last four years yet he has finished 4.9, 4.7, 4.1, and 6.4 fWAR. That is some serious defensive and base running value being delivered by Bourn. He is still lingering on the market, but someone is going to get themselves a fantastic centerfielder.

2. Andrew McCutchen (PIT) – I’m not a huge fan of his defense, but he has excellent and sustained bat to earn such a high spot. He is improving yearly with the bat and seems to be getting better in the field. He isn’t atrocious by any means, but I didn’t see a Gold Glove winner out there in 2012. When you’re crushing the hell out of the baseball like Cutch does, you don’t need to be Peter Bourjos-esque with the leather.

1. Mike Trout (LAA) – Of course, it doesn’t hurt if you are! It’s only the one season, but Trout was Cutch-plus with the bat all while playing Bourjosian D, predominantly in center (110-of-139 games). I know he isn’t going to start 2013 in centerfield, but he is still the best centerfielder in the game right now. Unlike with Span/Harper, Bourjos could lose his starting role if he performs poorly with the bat again and Trout would assume the role. Harper only moves back to center with a Span injury so he is more of a theoretical CF than Trout. I will be very interested to see how MLBN handles this tonight.

Posted in Baseball, Centerfield, MLB Network, Outfield, Rankings, Top 10 | 16 Comments »

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