Monday: 11.2.2009

NFL: Week 8 Review

Touring the NFL dissecting the day’s action…

Those that have been skeptical of Denver throughout their 6-0 start are likely to feel vindicated, but there is no shame in losing to Baltimore on the road. It was their 3-for-13 (23%) third down conversion rate that really did them in. Conversely, Baltimore was 11-for-16 (61%) in their third down situations. It was only 6-0 at half, but Baltimore took back the opening kick and swung the momentum in their favor. Even still, it was only 16-7 going into the fourth quarter, but the Ravens got two touchdowns and held Denver scoreless in the final 15 to make it look like a blowout. No one really expected Denver to go undefeated so now their first loss is out of the way the real test will be how they respond to it. Things won’t be easy with Pittsburgh rolling into Mile High next week. On the Baltimore side, Ray Rice had 108 total yards despite just 3.7 yards per carry on 23 carries. Star DT Haloti Ngata left with an ankle injury, but x-rays were negative. Baltimore is going to be in that AFC North race all season long making things especially interesting as neither Pittsburgh nor Cincinnati appear to be going anywhere either. Right now Houston would have the second wildcard with Baltimore and San Diego both at 4-3 and a game back in the win column.

Statistically Speaking – Kyle Orton had a horrific 4.1 yards per attempt (YPA) today. To put that in perspective, it was worse than Derek Anderson’s league worst 4.4 YPA… Rice has 874 yards from scrimmage this year as a dual threat both rushing and receiving. His league leading pace puts him on track for 1997.

Next up – Pittsburgh at Denver; Baltimore at Cincinnati

The Houston Texans have been known for the enigmatic ways the past few years. Some weeks they will look like legitimate Super Bowl contenders capable of taking their game to the next level. And the next week, they will get bashed up and down the field by a completely inferior opponent. This is how they have ended up with back-to-back 8-8 seasons coming into 2009. It looked like it was going to be the same old story again in 2009 as they followed a lose-win patter for their first six games. After a huge win against a very good Cincinnati Bengals team, the Texans had a chance to break their pattern. They did with a win against San Francisco that they almost let slip away in the end. Next was a trip to Buffalo against an inferior opponent. Could they do the impossible (for Houston) and win three straight? Down 10-6 going into the half, Texans fans were seeing a familiar sight as their team struggled with a weaker opponent they should be beating. With Steve Slaton benched and Owen Daniels out, things looked bleak. A lone field goal in the third quarter made it 10-9 going into the final 15. The Texans offense exploded thanks to Ryan Moats, in for the ineffective Slaton, and his three touchdown effort! Twenty-two points later, the Texans has themselves a walkaway 31-10 win. It didn’t come without cost as they lost Daniels for the season and their star running back may’ve been passed by a third stringer. Three straight wins puts ‘em at 5-3, 2nd to the Colts. The Bills continue to waste Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson as neither reached 10 carries. Terrell Owens got in the end zone, via a 29-yard end around. I can’t imagine a day goes by without him regretting his move to wallow in obscurity in Buffalo. Ryan Fitzpatrick, like Trent Edwards, is not the long-term answer for the Bills. Their defense, which is actually pretty solid, needs to stop winning them games so they can be in position to get a legitimate quarterback next April.

Statistically Speaking – Slaton has 341 rushing yards after eight weeks; he had 343 after six weeks in his rookie season last year. In the final seven games of ‘08, he had 916 yards from scrimmage… Buffalo safety Jairus Byrd had 2+ interceptions for the third straight week. He has seven in that span. The NFL record for most 2+ INT games in a season is four set by eight different players since 1960 including Ed Reed most recently.

Next up – Houston @ Indianapolis; Buffalo has a bye week

There is no better remedy for a struggling team than a tilt against the Cleveland Browns. Chicago got a blowout win beating the Browns 30-6, but they aren’t out of the woods yet. Sure Matt Forte reached the end zone twice, but he only managed 90 yards on 26 carries (3.5 yards per carry). Jay Cutler had a bland 17-for-30 for 225 showing with zero touchdowns and another interception. They crushed a team they were supposed to, but this team still has issues. They will be tested weekly for the next month hosting Arizona, going to Philly, hosting Chicago and going to Minnesota. I’m not sure Derek Anderson would start for one of the UFL teams at this point. He went 6-for-17 for a whopping 76 yards and two interceptions. The Browns clearly have no faith in Brady Quinn because he can barely sniff the field despite Anderson toting a hot 43% completion percentage with nine interceptions in his six games. Jamal Lewis said after the game that he plans to retire after the season. I’m not sure we would’ve noticed had he not made it a point to say something to the media. Cleveland gets a bye before they resume losing in Week 10 against Baltimore.

Statistically Speaking – Maybe Forte’s tumble isn’t such a surprise considering he had just 3.6 yards per carry (90 for 322) in his final five games last year which is virtually identical to his performance in the first six this season (92 for 318) prior to today’s game… Joshua Cribbs, easily Cleveland’s most explosive player, has four catches in the last six games including two with none. You can’t tell me he wouldn’t be effective with a series of Wes Welker-like routes designed for him and put into the playbook. It would even benefit Anderson because he wouldn’t have to throw the ball more than five yards in the air.

Next Up – Arizona at Chicago; Cleveland has a bye week

Dallas kept their momentum running high by tearing apart a far inferior Seattle Seahawks in the Jerry Dome on Sunday. Tony Romo, Miles Austin and DeMarcus Ware have led the Cowboys on their 3-game winning streak. The Romo haters haven’t been heard from in awhile and don’t expect him to get any credit for kicking some serious butt, either. He’s 62-for-99 for 918 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in the three victories. Austin’s five catches for 61 yards look downright pedestrian when compared to his previous two weeks in which he totaled 16 catches for 421 yards and four touchdowns. Ware was held sackless in the first four games, but has since exploded for five including another one today. The Cowboys got to Matt Hasselbeck three times giving them 17 on the year after being shutout in their first two games. Seattle’s offensive line is ravaged and they are without their best defensive player for the rest of the season (Lofa Tatupu) making it unlikely that they get many more than the two wins they already have.

Statistically Speaking – Marion Barber (14 for 53, 3.8 ypc on Sunday) hasn’t topped 4.0 yards per carry in his past four games. And 4.0 is just acceptable, the top 10 in a given season are approaching 5.0. He hasn’t been right since coming up lame on a long run against the New York Giants in week 2. Since he is non-existent in the passing game too, he might be better off not playing and resting up so fantasy owners can commit to finding a replacement without the risk of missing a big week… Seattle is now without their two starting tackles from the beginning of the season as well as a backup leaving their line simply decimated. If you can sell Hasselbeck, TJ Houshmandzadeh or Julius Jones for anything worthwhile, I definitely would act on it.

Next up – Dallas at Philadelphia; Detroit at Seattle

I think I could watch the Jets and Dolphins play each every week. After being dead-locked at 3 through a half, the two teams combined for 49 second half points resulting in a 30-25 win for Miami powered by two Ted Ginn kickoff returns for touchdowns. Miami has to be especially pleased with the win because they did it without any contributions from their two-headed running back: Ronnie Ricky Brown Williams. The two managed just 27 yards apiece of 19 total carries. Football is a funny game. New York had 13 more first downs than Miami, Mark Sanchez was much better than Chad Henne and Thomas Jones rushed for 102 yards yet they couldn’t overcome three non-offensive touchdowns from the Dolphins. As this division continues to knock each other around, it lessens the chances of one of them taking a wildcard spot. Despite losing, the Jets have to be pleased with the bounceback by Mark Sanchez in his first real game since the five interception debacle.

Statistically Speaking – Miami is 7-2 in their last nine division games dating back to the season opener in 2008 (a 20-14 loss to New York). Ginn’s two 100+ yard kickoff return TDs set an NFL record. It was the 8th time someone took two kickoffs back in the same game, but the first time they were both 100+ yards… Shonn Greene followed up his breakout performance with 18 yards on eight carries including a lost fumble. He will likely be cut by many as quickly as he was picked up. That, of course, would be stupid, but it won’t stop many from overreacting.

Next up – Miami at New England; New York has a bye week

The least the St. Louis Rams and Detroit Lions could’ve done for the 40,857 fans who suffered through this debacle is bring the offenses. But instead the two horrible teams went toe-to-toe in a slugfest that saw a mere 27 points scored, including a safety. Even after breaking their streak of futility, no one thought the Lions were off and running towards viability. They are still going to take their lumps and they let a winnable game pass them by today. Matthew Stafford played, but was ineffective and clearly missed his best target, uber-receiver Calvin Johnson. I’m glad he’s back under center, though. I want him taking as many snaps as he can in his debut season. The Rams broke their Lions-esque streak with their first win in a loooong time while Steven Jackson stayed hot with another big game. After 134 yards against the Colts last week, Jackson followed it up with 149 on the ground against the Leos including his first touchdown of the season. What’s lost in this disastrous season for the Rams is that their defense isn’t half bad, but any defense is going to be exposed when they are on the field all day. If they ever get an ounce of sustainable offense (which won’t come until they get a real quarterback), they will begin to make some noise with Chris Long, James Laurinaitis, Adam Carriker, Oshiomogho Atogwe and company.

Statistically Speaking – Long got his first sack since week 8 of last year when he had two against the New England Patriots… Brandon Pettigrew had his 13th and 14th catches of the season for 17 yards giving him 169 on the season. I stand firm that the pick used to get him should’ve been spent on left tackle Michael Oher, who spent the day shutting down football’s sack leader, Elvis Dumervil (10) [Check that, sack leader coming into Sunday… Jared Allen tore up Green Bay again and pushed his season sack total to 10.5]. Even if Pettigrew pans out as an Owen Daniels-type of tight end, I will remain steadfast in my belief that Oher was the pick, without question.

Next up – St. Louis has a bye week; Detroit at Seattle

Like the New Orleans Saints, the Indianapolis Colts are showing that they can win in many different ways. They were down 14-9 at halftime to the upstart San Francisco 49ers, which is 10.4 points below their halftime average this year and well below the 21 they have had at halftime in each of the past four games. The scoring didn’t really come on in the second half either, but the defense turned it up a notch. Frank Gore, who busted off a 64-yard run for a touchdown in the first half, managed just 27 yards on his remaining 12 carries. And the 49ers were just 2-for-10 (20%) on third down conversions while the Colts were 8-for-19 (42%), including 5-for-9 (56%) in the second half. This is second low scoring slugfest that Indy has battled through, the first coming on opening week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The amazing thing about the 18-point total for the Colts is that Peyton Manning had 347 yards, but he couldn’t find the end zone. The lone TD pass for Indy was thrown by Joseph Addai. Alex Smith and the Fightin’ Singletarys have now lost two back-breakers in a row and their third by four or fewer points this season. Gore racked up 134 total yards while Vernon Davis found the end zone again, but it just wasn’t enough.

Statistically Speaking – There was concern that Reggie Wayne might miss the game. Not only did he play, but he caught 12 balls for 147 yards including the TD from Addai. Despite the presence of several targets on the Colts, Wayne is on pace for a career high 1575 yards this year… Michael Crabtree had another strong game (6 catches for 81 yards) despite the lost fumble in the third quarter. This only makes his holdout decision that much dumber. He could’ve been racking up numbers from the jump and showed that he was the best receiver in the draft instead of just talking about it. His pace from his first two games over a whole season comes out to 88 catches for 1096 yards, figures good for 4th and 6th best since 1980 amongst rookie receivers. Hey at least you got… nothing with that holdout!

Next up – Houston at Indianapolis; Tennessee at San Francisco

The Giants suck. They built their record up against awful opponents like Washington, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Oakland. Their lone worthwhile win in the early season was against the Cowboys in Dallas. Dallas was playing horribly at the time, but I will give them credit for it. They are now 0-3 against three teams with a combined record of 15-5. Today’s blowout loss to Philly was even more embarrassing because the Eagles were without their best player. That didn’t prevent Donovan McNabb and backup running back LeSean McCoy from pummeling the hapless Giants. The talk of the two in the early season was either an All-New York Super Bowl or All-Manning Super Bowl. Injuries have decimated the New York secondary, but the loss of Steve Spagnuolo has been a lot more important than most recognize. It’s the same effect of Jim Schwartz leaving Tennessee. I think the combination of Schwartz and Albert Haynesworth leaving is what has left the Titans SO reprehensible, but in a league so focused on coaching, losing an elite coordinator is big. They could really use a bye week to regroup and get focused, but instead they host San Diego next week. Another reason I don’t want to hear the injuries excuse for New York is because the team they played today is as banged up as any in the league. I already mentioned that Brian Westbrook was out, but their linebacking corps have been gutted with season-ending injuries and their line has struggled to come back from the Shawn Andrews injury as evidenced by their weak running game. But they continued to live off of the big play with touchdowns of 17, 23, 41, 54 and 66 yards today. McNabb and his no-name crew owned their division rivals setting up a battle for first place against the Dallas Cowboys next week.

Statistically Speaking – DeSean Jackson has a 50+ yard reception in each of the past three weeks and in five of the last six. He is now on pace for 1145 yards… Eli Manning had a 10-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio through five weeks; he has a 3-to-6 ratio since.

Next up – Dallas at Philadelphia; San Diego at New York

And then there was one. Vince Young and Chris Johnson teamed up for a spectacular performance on Sunday and brought their team its first win of the 2009 season leaving just the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the only winless team left. Young, in for Kerry Collins, bought himself at least another week of good favor with a 15-for-18 for 125 yards showing. He also had a touchdown pass and no interceptions. The real star was Johnson, who rushed for 228 yards including touchdown runs of 52 and 89 yards. Not to be outdone, Johnson’s counterpart, Maurice Jones-Drew rushed for 177 yards on a mere eight carries most of the yardage coming on touchdown runs of 80 and 79 yards. That is the single best performance on 10 or fewer carries since 1960, with only Michael Vick’s 173 yards on 10 carries coming close. Meanwhile, Jags quarterback David Garrard did a complete 180 from the last time these two teams met. Back in week 4, he went 27-for-37 for 323 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. On Sunday he was 14-for-27 for 139 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions. Jacksonville is a tough team to figure out. They have talent, but they are one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. It’s probably time for Jack Del Rio to be let go. A home loss to Kansas City might be the impetus.

Statistically Speaking – This was Young’s 2nd-best game ever from a passer rating standpoint (114.1) and his best in efficiency (83% completion percentage)… Sunday was the third time a running back had two 79+ yard touchdowns in a game, and the second this season. Frank Gore matched Jones-Drew’s feat with 79 and 80 yard touchdowns in week 2. Barry Sanders was the other back in 1997 when he had 80 and 82 yard touchdowns in a 215 yard performance against Tampa Bay. It came in the midst of his 2053-yard season. A sidenote about that incredible season for Sanders is that he had just 53 total yards through the first two games of the season.

Next up – Tennessee at San Francisco; Kansas City at Jacksonville

LaDainian Tomlinson stayed fantasy relevant with two touchdowns, but that doesn’t change the fact that he managed a meager 3.1 yards per carry on his 18 carries (totaling 56 yards). He was also non-existent in passing game again. There’s no need to belabor the point, but Tomlinson is toast and it’s sad because he’s a surefire Hall of Famer who will probably hang on for 2 more seasons when he’s been done since last year. I’d like to see him retire after this season and save his body a little bit before he reaches the 3000 carry mark. Only 14 backs have topped his 2736 carries and all are Hall of Famers or likely headed there soon. You know you’re a terrible quarterback when you post a 56.8 passer rating and it ranks as your 3rd-best game of the season. JaMarcus Russell had his best completion percentage of the season (14-for-22, 64%) and broke his streak of two interceptions per game with just one, but he was sacked five times. He sucks and he sucks hard. The worst part isn’t his lack of skill, it’s his attitude. He actually doesn’t see himself as a reason the Raiders are so bad. In fact, he thinks he didn’t do too badly on Sunday. Delusional much? Denver has a stranglehold on the AFC West lead, but San Diego is still in the wildcard hunt. They have the 2nd-worst rushing attack in the league at 74.7 yards per game, but that doesn’t prevent success. The Colts are 3rd-worst at 87.3 and they are 7-0. That said, Philip Rivers isn’t exactly Peyton Manning, but each has a similar group of weapons.

Statistically Speaking – Vincent Jackson continued his breakout season for the Chargers with an 8 catch/103 yard performance pushing his season total to 664 and putting him on pace for 1518, which would easily be a career high. Only Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne have more total yards while only Wayne and Wes Welker are averaging more than Jackson’s 94.9 yards per game… Last year, Oakland had the 10th-best rushing attack which they parlayed into a 5-11 record. This year they’ve tumbled to 25th with 93.6 yards per game which has made it more difficult to overcome Russell’s suckiness. Their 78 points are tied (w/Cleveland) for 2nd-worst in the league (St. Louis, 77).

Next up – San Diego at New York Giants; Oakland has a bye week

There are a lot of teams in the mold of this Arizona team this year: teams that you just can’t get a read on from week-to-week. When it looks like they have a “can’t-lose” game against an inferior opponent, they lose. When they appear overmatched on paper by an opponent, they go out and steamroll them. There is no way this team should be losing to a piece of crap team like Carolina, but turnovers are a great equalizer and Kurt Warner threw FIVE interceptions. It was the second 5-INT game of Warner’s career, the first coming in December of 2007 at Seattle. Carolina’s rushing attack looked 2008esque as both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart rushed for better than 5.0 yards per carry while Stewart found the end zone twice. Jake Delhomme remained positively JaMarcus Russelly with a 7-for-14 for 90 yards performance. He did manage to finally get Steve Smith his first touchdown of the season and was interceptionless for the first all year. I’m still not sure why he is starting for them. Matt Moore hasn’t shown much in his very limited time since 2007, but he’s 25 and he can’t be worse than Delhomme, so why not get him a bunch of snaps and see if there is anything there?

Statistically Speaking – After peaking at 79 yards in the first four weeks, Williams has weeks of 152, 89 and 158 yards the past three weeks. His 399 yards have come on 69 carries (5.8 yards per carry) while Stewart has amassed 222 yards on 41 carries (5.4 ypc) in the same span… Warner’s 5 INT isn’t rare (145 instances since 1960) and he’s not the only Hall of Fame caliber quarterback to achieve the dubious feat. Both George Blanda and Joe Namath have done it FIVE times apiece and Johnny Unitas had four such games.

Next up – Carolina at New Orleans; Arizona at Chicago

The game of the day was the one everyone pegged as such all week. It lived up to the hype, though by halftime it didn’t look like it would. Minnesota took a 17-3 lead into halftime in Lambeau against Green Bay and it looked like a runaway win for Brett Favre in his old stomping grounds. Favre got his second passing touchdown of the day early in the 2nd half extending the lead to 24-3, but Green Bay answered with 17 straight points and cut the Vikings leads to 24-20. The two teams traded touchdowns, but Green Bay failed on a two-point conversion pushing the margin to five. Favre’s fourth touchdown pass would seal up a sweep of his former team. Adrian Peterson had 141 total yards, but just 97 on the ground on 25 carries. It was the second straight game in which Peterson averaged fewer than four yards per carry, but he was facing the 1st and 10th rated rush defenses, too. Green Bay locked him up for just 55 yards on 25 carries in their first meeting leaving him with just 3.0 yards per carry against the Pack this season. I guarantee that only number that Peterson cares about the two wins for Minnesota in those games and he did manage to score in each game, too. Neither quarterback was intercepted, but Minnesota lost two fumbles for the game’s only turnovers. Everyone was eager to see how this Vikings team would respond to their first loss to gauge their chances as legitimate championship contenders. They went into Lambeau and asserted themselves as the NFC’s second-best team (behind New Orleans) with a convincing one against their biggest rival. They took Green Bay’s best counterpunch and still won by 12. Minnesota extended their league leading sack total to 31 (Denver & Philly, 23) by taking down Aaron Rodgers six times, including three from Jared Allen. Meanwhile, the Packers are toting arguably the league’s worst offensive line which seriously limits how seriously they can be taken as playoff contenders let alone anything beyond that. Rodgers has been sacked four or more times in all but two games and he’s stayed upright all game just once (last week vs. Cleveland). The FOX telecast spent a lot of yesterday blaming Rodgers for his fair share of the sacks, but this line is garbage and I have no problem placing the blame directly on them. Ryan Grant has felt the effects of the line as well with just one 100-yard game (last week vs. Cleveland, 148).

Statistically Speaking – Percy Harvin is on pace for 1720 kickoff return yards, which would be the 2nd-best total by a rookie returner since 1970. His four kickoff return touchdown pace would be a rookie record. His pace of 2458 all-purpose yards would be a post-merger rookie record, too (Tim Brown, 2317)… Aaron Kampman had the 3rd-most sacks from 2006-2008 with 37 (DeMarcus Ware 45.5, Allen 37.5), but has just 2.5 so far this season. Allen had more than that on Sunday alone while Ware has topped that total in the past two weeks with three including one on Sunday.

Next up – Minnesota has a bye week; Green Bay at Tampa Bay

NOT SO SECRET SAUCE STANDINGS

RK TEAM SK FOR SK AGNST DIFF WINS
1 Indianapolis 20 5 15 7
2 Minnesota 31 18 13 7
3 Denver 23 11 12 6
4 Tennessee 15 6 9 1
5 NY Giants 18 10 8 5
6 Atlanta 12 6 6 4
7 Cincinnati 17 11 6 5
8 Philadelphia 23 17 6 5
9 New England 13 8 5 5
10 New Orleans 14 9 5 6
11 Baltimore 16 12 4 4
12 Dallas 17 13 4 5
13 Arizona 17 14 3 4
14 Carolina 17 16 1 3
15 Pittsburgh 21 20 1 5
16 San Diego 17 16 1 4
17 Chicago 15 15 0 4
18 Seattle 18 18 0 2
19 NY Jets 14 15 -1 4
20 Miami 19 21 -2 3
21 St. Louis 14 16 -2 1
22 Cleveland 16 19 -3 1
23 Houston 11 14 -3 5
24 Tampa Bay 11 15 -4 0
25 Buffalo 18 23 -5 3
26 Washington 18 23 -5 2
27 San Francisco 16 22 -6 3
28 Oakland 17 25 -8 2
29 Detroit 15 24 -9 1
30 Jacksonville 5 19 -14 3
31 Kansas City 9 27 -18 1
32 Green Bay 12 31 -19 4

Protect your quarterback and get to opposing team’s and you will have a great shot at winning. The top 10 in sack differential has an average of 5.1 wins this season while the bottom 10 has just 2.4 wins per team. Tennessee, Houston and Green Bay are the outliers on each end of the spectrum. Obviously many things going into a winning team, but getting and preventing pressure is definitely a big key.

Duh Player of the Week – Chris Johnson
Off the Radar Player of the Week – Michael Oher
Best Team in the League – New Orleans
2nd-Best Team in the League – Indianapolis
Worst Team in the League (Talent/Performance Ratio) – tie: Tennessee/Washington (one win doesn’t elevate Tennessee that much)
Worst Team in the League (Least Talent) – tie: Cleveland/Tampa Bay

My Playoff Predictions After 50% of the Season:
AFC
N: Baltimore, S: Indianapolis, E: New England, W: Denver, WC1: Cincinnati, WC2: Pittsburgh

NFC
N: Minnesota, S: New Orleans, E: Philadelphia, W: San Francisco, WC1: Dallas, WC2: Atlanta

With the 1st pick in 2010 Draft…
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers select: Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska – I don’t think they’ll take Sam Bradford only because they have Josh Freeman and they have to give him a legitimate shot, right? Only the Rams (221), Titans (211), Browns (209) and Lions (205) have given up more points than the Bucs (203) so they need to start fixing that D if they ever hope to get back to where they were when their D dominated. There have been 4 DTs selected #1 overall since 1975 – Dan Wilkinson, Steve Emtman, Russell Maryland and Kenneth Sims – so it wouldn’t be unprecedented. Eric Berry might be the best player available from a grading standpoint, but defensive backs don’t go #1 overall. Other options include Russell Okung (OT) from Oklahoma State and Carlos Dunlap (DE) from Florida.

Top 10 Prospects for 2010 Draft
1. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
2. Eric Berry, S, Tennessee$
3. Jake Locker, QB, Washington$
4. Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
5. Greg Hardy, DE, Ole Miss
6. Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida$
7. Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma$
8. Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
9. Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma$
10. Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State$

$ – eligible juniors

Next 5 Prospects for 2010 Draft
11. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame$
12. Earl Thomas, S, Texas$
13. Rolando McClain, LB, Alabama$
14. Taylor Mays, S, USC
15. CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson

Week 9 Game(s) of the Week –
Baltimore at Cincinnati – the two AFC North stalwarts rematch after a thrilled 17-14 Cincy win in Baltimore back on week 5.

Houston at Indianapolis – if Houston wants to have any chance at the AFC South crown, they will need to win their biggest game of the year on the road against the Fightin’ Peytons. It won’t be easy without star tight end, Owen Daniels.

Dallas at Philadelphia – the Eagles have a chance to get a vice grip on the NFC North as they play their third straight divisional game. The surging Cowboys have found their #1 receiver and have gotten back to their QB pressuring ways. The games are always amazing and this one should be no different next Sunday night.

Pittsburgh at Denver – it is Denver’s turn to respond to their first taste of failure in 2009. The Vikings bounced back with a convincing win against their rival and Denver gets a shot to respond against a very tough opponent at home.

Posted in Football, NFL Review | Leave a Comment »

Saturday: 10.31.2009

2010 Focus: Matt Wieters

If someone asks you how you thought Matt Wieters performed in 2009, your answer will likely give the questioner a lot of insight into how you rated Wieters coming into the season. If you say something like, “Oh that stupid bum ruined my team. He was a total bust!”, then it is clear that you were part of the (HUGE) group that massively overrated the rookie backstop. If your answer is more along the lines of, “Well he wasn’t anything terribly special, but his September/October gave us a taste of why he was the consensus #1 prospect coming into the season.”

You didn’t have to search very far to find a favorable outlook for Wieters in 2009. Joe Mauer with power was the tagline as projections ranged as high as 30+ home runs while many fell in the mid-20s. Even Bill James initially put Wieters down for 24 with 85 RBIs and a .311 batting average. This piece over at FanGraphs.com openly encouraged reaching for him in drafts. And there were countless others using different ways to say the same thing: Wieters will be an instant hit in the major leagues.

I can honestly say I’m not using 20/15 hindsight to chastise those that were over the top in their predictions of Wieters. I was in the vocal minority that believed it was a foolish risk to jump headfirst into a marriage with Wieters with expectations of an All-Star caliber season. I expressed this belief on Twitter and on a pair of message boards I used to frequent. I also marveled at Wieters’ draft position being above Chris Iannetta’s in this review of a mock draft I was in. While I was decidedly wrong on Iannetta, it does show that I’m not blowing smoke re: Wieters.

Razzball was on target, too. Any outlet that suggested caution with Wieters wasn’t downing his merits as a top prospect in the grand scheme, just tempering expectations for his debut season. It is one thing to move from the minors to majors as a position player in the infield or outfield and it is quite another to do so behind the plate. Geovany Soto’s surprise 2008 season was fresh in the minds of those highest on Wieters with the rationale that if Soto can do what he did, the better, more heralded Wieters can TOP those numbers.

What you may not realize is that Wieters’ debut wasn’t abnormal of what we should expect from a rookie catcher. And while he wasn’t exemplary, he wasn’t a bust either. Over the past 20 years, there have been just seven catchers to log 300+ at-bats in their first season (note: the Play Index doesn’t differentiate between rookie qualified and 1st seasons, so while Mike Piazza and Geovany Soto [and others I’m sure] had excellent rookie seasons, they weren’t factored in because of the PI limitations). Of those seven, Kenji Johjima posted the best Adjusted OPS (OPS+) with a 103 and he was 95 years old (actually, 30). Wieters’ 95 OPS+ was 4th. Rarely is a catcher even given a legitimate chance out of the chute and in the instances where they are, there isn’t instance success at the dish. Furthering the point, in the last 30 years, there have been four Rookie of Year winners (Soto, Piazza, Sandy Alomar and Benito Santiago) that played catcher.

So that’s all the long way of saying that my relatively high opinion of Wieters hasn’t changed based on his first 354 at-bats. In 2010, he will take a big step toward the lofty projections heaped upon him last year. He still might not do the .300-30-100 dream season many foresee now and for years to come, but he should build off of the positives he showed throughout the season and specifically in final month of the season while learning from struggles he experienced upon being called up. His value will vary from league to league with some downing him after last year while others boost him as a perfect post-hype sleeper candidate. I don’t think he will have much sleeper value because he certainly hasn’t fallen off the radar. Sure, there is a contingent that over drafted him and might swear off of him, but the phrase is “hell hath no fury like a woman scorned,” not “like a fantasy baseball owner scorned” so that group should just get over their own stupid move and realize that Wieters is a much wiser pick this year than he was in 2009.

Wieters in 2009: .288-35-9-43-0
Wieters in 2010*: .292-86-25-82-0

(*–this assumes Wieters is moved up in the order batting 4th or 5th with some combination of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold flanking or ahead of him. )

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Player Focus, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Friday: 10.30.2009

2010 Focus: Carlos Beltran

When you lose 81 games on your season, you tend to be forgotten by a large group of the fantasy baseball population. And it doesn’t matter if you’re a bona fide superstar like Carlos Beltran either. He made the 2009 All-Star team, but he won’t show up near the top of any 2009 leaderboards and though he played 19 games in September, those were meaningless ones for the out-of-contention Mets so he was absent from the public eye virtually all summer. It would be a BIG mistake to forget about Carlos Beltran for 2010. (And by forget, I don’t mean he’ll go in the 12th round. He’s a 2nd round guy in most leagues and his 81 games missed could drop him as many as two rounds. Injury bounce backs make championship seasons. Just ask Aaron Hill and Chris Carpenter owners.)

Barring injury-shortened seasons, Beltran has had 100+ RBIs in all but one season, 100+ runs scored in all but two, 23+ stolen bases in all two and 22+ home runs in all but one. His 2000 and 2009 seasons were cut to 98 and 81 games, respectively while 2005, his first in New York, is the only real “bust” season on his record. He played 151 games, so you can’t classify it as injury-shortened, but he battled nagging injuries throughout that year because he didn’t want to sit out for extended periods of time as he wanted to justify his new fat contract in the spotlight of New York.

Since that debut season, he has posted a .286/.379/.531 line with 111 home runs, 386 runs scored, 388 RBIs, 77 stolen bases and a 136 OPS+ in 1978 at-bats. He will turn 33 shortly after the 2010 season starts which is an automatic red flag for some, but if you get caught up in age too much without any context for the individual player then you will do yourself a huge disservice. A-Rod turns 34 in 2010 and you’d better believe that he is still a first round pick. The age factor would be viable if Beltran was showing any signs of slowing down, but he had seasons of 150, 126, 129 OPS+ leading into 2009. And he was on a killer pace with a 141 OPS+ before getting hurt this year. He may run less, but no one should be looking for much more than 20 these days anyway. The last four years prior to 2009 have yielded two low 20s and two high teens outputs (17, 18, 23, 25 since 2005).

So what should we expect from a 2010 Beltran? Based on where he has been since 2004, it would be unwise to bet on the .325 average we saw in a half season of 2009 or even anything close to that. Had he held that pace, it would have been a career high and 51 points than the .274 he has established since 2004. He will earn a high OBP with his eye and there is never a shortage of extra base hits pumping his SLG up. I expect something along the lines of: .280/.375/.510 with 100 runs, 24 home runs, 115 RBIs and 23 stolen bases. That is an elite season worthy of at least a 2nd round pick, if not a late 1st depending on your league size.

Don’t believe it’s anything special? Since 2005 there have only been 10 seasons where a player scored 100 runs, drove in 100 runs, hit 20+ home runs and stole 20+ bases. One of them belongs to Beltran (2008) while Alex Rodriguez and Bobby Abreu are the only two players to repeat the feat. The other five players are among the elite, too: Jason Bay (2005), Ryan Braun (2009), Hanley Ramirez (2009), Alfonso Soriano (2005) and David Wright (2007).

In the last 10 years, there have only 15 instances of that season and Beltran owns five of them. Even loosening the criteria to R>=90, HR>=20, SB>=15 and RBI>=90 shows how amazing Beltran has been. There have been 45 of those seasons since 2000 and he is second to A-Rod (eight) with seven. While I wouldn’t be surprised if Beltran is discounted in drafts because of his age and injury, don’t chance it by letting him hang out there too long. I’d rather lock him up on my terms than keep waiting and hoping he falls. For auction leagues, Beltran is the perfect kind of player to target. His cost is front and center so you will know if there is a discount to be had or not.

Beltran in 2009: .325-50-10-48-11
Beltran in 2010: .280-100-24-115-23

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 10.28.2009

The Top 12s – v1.0

I was originally going to post my weekly NFL piece, but I realized that Wednesday was in fact too late as Wednesday is usually when everyone kind of turns the page on the week that was and starts to look at the week ahead. Instead, I will post my first edition of the top 12 lists at every position for 2010. I posted a few here already and all of them were featured at OwnersEdge.com recently. I am just going to post the lists here without the commentary on everyone since 1) I’ve already posted it elsewhere and 2) a lot of it is dated because it was written awhile back and I don’t think it’s necessary to update it until the calendar turns to 2010.

CATCHER
1. Joe Mauer
2. Victor Martinez
3. Brian McCann
4. Mike Napoli
5. Russell Martin
6. Jorge Posada
7. Matt Wieters
8. Geovany Soto
9. Chris Iannetta
10. Kurt Suzuki
11. Bengie Molina
12. A.J. Pierzynski

FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Prince Fielder
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Justin Morneau
6. Mark Reynolds
7. Ryan Howard
8. Joey Votto
9. Adrian Gonzalez
10. Adam Dunn
11. Kevin Youkilis
12. Kendry Morales

SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley
2. Brian Roberts
3. Ian Kinsler
4. Robinson Cano
5. Aaron Hill
6. Dustin Pedroia
7. Brandon Phillips
8. Ben Zobrist
9. Jose Lopez
10. Asdrubal Cabrera
11. Orlando Hudson
12. Rickie Weeks

SHORTSTOP
1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Jose Reyes
3. Troy Tulowitzki
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Derek Jeter
6. Alexei Ramirez
7. Jason Bartlett
8. Asdrubal Cabrera
9. Yunel Escobar
10. Elvis Andrus
11. Miguel Tejada
12. Erick Aybar

THIRD BASE
1. Alex Rodriguez
2. David Wright
3. Mark Reynolds
4. Evan Longoria
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Chone Figgins
7. Kevin Youkilis
8. Aramis Ramirez
9. Pablo Sandoval
10. Michael Young
11. Chipper Jones
12. Gordon Beckham

OUTFIELD
1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Carl Crawford
4. Jacoby Ellsbury
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Matt Holliday
7. Ichiro Suzuki
8. Carlos Beltran
9. Bobby Abreu
10. Justin Upton
11. Jason Bay
12. Adam Dunn

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Johan Santana
3. Roy Halladay
4. Felix Hernandez
5. Dan Haren
6. CC Sabathia
7. Zack Greinke
8. Josh Beckett
9. Javier Vazquez
10. Cliff Lee
11. Justin Verlander
12. Chris Carpenter

Top 12 Overall
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Chase Utley
4. Matt Kemp
5. Ryan Braun
6. Carl Crawford
7. Alex Rodriguez
8. Joe Mauer
9. David Wright
10. Miguel Cabrera
11. Prince Fielder
12. Justin Morneau

Just Missed: Jose Reyes, Matt Holliday, Mark Reynolds, Mark Teixeira, Grady Sizemore, all starting pitchers

The collection on OwnersEdge.com (sub. req.) –
Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV
Part V
Part VI
Part VII

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Top 12 | 2 Comments »

Wednesday: 10.28.2009

The Offseason

Now that the regular season has wrapped and the offseason is upon us, it’s time for another season to start for me: Blog Season. I do the bulk of my writing here during the offseason dispensing the bulk of my fantasy information over the winter and early spring in preparation for upcoming season. I was fortunate enough to work with Fanball at OwnersEdge.com this year which made it virtually impossible to write here regularly since I was committed to 2 columns a week, 2 live advice sessions, watching the Detroit Tigers every night, working my 40+ hour/week job and still finding enough time to spend with puppy!! Fanball didn’t restrain my topic choices at all, so it was essentially like I was blogging in long-form two times a week, it was just in a different location. And if you came here during the season at all, you saw that I shared a few of the articles in this space.

I’ve already begun looking closely at 2010 and you can expect a lot of content in the coming months, including something brand new. Despite the name of this site being “Baseball by Paul”, there will be a football piece every Sunday night/Monday morning reviewing the week’s action. I started this last week in a different space and it was received pretty well. I didn’t do one this past Sunday because I was in Las Vegas and I didn’t take my computer with me. Even though it’s a little dated on Wednesday, I’m still going to post one today. In addition to that, I’ll be posting –

– Report from First Pitch Forums: Arizona (including reviews, pictures and analysis from AFL games)
– Top 12s for the infield and at closer
– Top 100 outfielders
– Top 200 starting pitchers
– Sleepers
– Various strategy pieces
– A breathing top 24 (updated weekly starting in February)
– Podcasting (which should include interviews with some awesome guests)
– Book reviews (not limited to baseball, but there will be plenty on the great game)

As well as plenty of other stuff, too! Anyway, it should be similar to last year, but hopefully even more content. I’m starting earlier this year (in fact, I started in August for cryin’ out loud!) which only means more, better content.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Off-Season | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 08.27.2009

2010: Top 12 Second Basemen

Continuing around the diamond with the top 12 lists for 2010 with second base:

SECOND BASE
1. Chase Utley
2. Brian Roberts
3. Ian Kinsler
4. Robinson Cano
5. Aaron Hill
6. Dustin Pedroia
7. Brandon Phillips
8. Ben Zobrist
9. Jose Lopez
10. Asdrubal Cabrera
11. Orlando Hudson
12. Rickie Weeks

A position often thought to be very thin has started to show some depth mostly with veterans getting better as opposed to several significant newcomers emerging.

-What got the most feedback from my article on the first round for next year? Well it was actually the inclusion of Joe Mauer, but right there was the placement of Chase Utley in the third spot. He doesn’t get enough credit for his greatness. Coming into the season, many were worried he would miss significant time coming off of his hip surgery instead he’s on pace for his best season yet. If he keeps pace, he will set career highs in four of the categories used in standard 5×5 leagues. He would need an otherworldly September to top 2007’s .332 batting average, but his current .303 is nothing to criticize.

-I am tired of Ian Kinsler and that’s why he’s not second. More on that in a minute. Despite the drop in stolen bases for the second straight season by Brian Roberts, he is still fifth in the American League and on pace for 35. Thanks to a high powered offense in Baltimore, Roberts is on pace for a career high in RBIs with 77 and he has already set his highest total in four years. He is also on pace to set a career high in runs scored (119) and match his career high of 18 home runs so he has more than made up for his dip in speed. Roberts is also on pace for his third straight season of 155 or more games played, something you just don’t get from Kinsler and that is a big reason why Roberts slotted in behind Utley.

-Kinsler is on pace for a 30-30 seasons with 100+ runs scored and 90+ driven in, so why am I sick of him? One reason is that even though he’s on pace for a career high in games played by a huge margin, it is still just 144. This guy cannot make it through a season without getting hurt and missing a chunk of time. Secondly, his .244 is annoying. The missed time is a big hindrance to him putting it all together, but he finally creeps toward the 600 at-bat mark in a season and his batting average tanks. He is in the throes of his prime and just because I didn’t list him second as many others will doesn’t mean I think he sucks. He has got an amazing season coming within the next 2-3 years. Something that approaches or reaches 40-40 with an average above .290 in 155 games, but pinpointing when that will come is difficult so for now I have the more reliable Roberts ahead of Kinsler, but I’d happy slot any one of the three in at second base on my team at a handsome price/early draft pick.

–Robinson Cano had a down season in 2008 when compared against his first three seasons, but he was still useful. Of course when you cut 48 points off your on-base percentage and 35 points off of your batting average, it’s going to depress your counting stats. Both his runs scored and runs batted in saw drops of more than 20 from 2007 to 2008, but he has rebounded remarkably well in 2009 already posting a career high in home runs with 20 and counting. He is also on pace to set a career high in runs scored in that high octane offense. In the midst of his prime and part of a remarkably strong offense, Cano has several more productive seasons ahead of him to match the four of five excellent ones already on his ledger.

-I don’t mean to toot my horn just for the sake of bragging, but I listed Aaron Hill as a sleeper back in early March. Hill has exceeded even my expectations setting career highs in home runs and RBIs already with a great shot at doing the same in runs scored. The 2007 was the gauge for Hill’s potential and the approach I took was to just strike 2008 from the record in terms of judging Hill because it was a lost season ravaged by injuries. Hill profiles as a high 20s-low 30s home run hitter (as opposed to the 39 he is pacing for right now) with a good batting average and strong counting stats for the next few seasons.

-I get the feeling based on some things I read that there were expectations of Dustin Pedroia to actually step up yet another level after his MVP campaign in 2008. I really can’t imagine why anyone would expect/bet on him topping the 17 home run total he had last year and there was no reason he couldn’t dip a little across the board and still be an elite option at second base. That said, only his power has scaled back as he paces towards 13 home runs and 73 RBIs after 17 and 83 last year. He is on pace to re-establish career highs in runs scored and stolen bases. I have mentioned several times this season that the runs scored category is highly underrated so you might hear something said like, “Pedroia isn’t elite in any one category, yet he’s solid across the board.” The latter part of that statement is true, he is very solid, but he is definitely elite as a run scorer. A lot of that comes from your teammates driving you in, but you don’t just happen into the third highest runs scored total in the American League. A .300 batting average and .374 on-base percentage create the opportunities to be driven in that often.

-His 30-30 season from 2007 is starting to look more and more like the outlier on his career, but that doesn’t mean that Brandon Phillips isn’t still a top tier second baseman. His batting average (currently at .262) is the only category that isn’t a plus-category for Phillips. He’s a great power-speed combo with very good runs scored and driven in. Apart from a nice jump in RBIs, his 2009 has been virtually a carbon copy of 2008 and that’s not a bad thing. Fantasy owners need to stop paying for the 30-30 season and let Phillips value settle properly in the range appropriate for the 2008 and 2009 numbers he put up.

-On Monday I suggested that Mark Reynolds might be the most controversial pick in 2010 because each league will react in their own way to his amazing breakout season. To a lesser extent, the same can be said for Ben Zobrist. His breakout has been even more unexpected than Reynolds’ making him tougher to project going forward, especially at age 28. His multi-position eligibility (ranging from 2B and OF in most leagues to 2B-SS-3B-OF in the most liberal of leagues) combined with an elite power-speed combo displayed in limited time this season is appealing. That he is on pace for a .292-97-30-90-20 is mind blowing enough on its own, but considering it is being done in a role pacing for fewer than 500 at-bats is just insane. The numbers are propped up by some really strong skills including 75 walks, an expected batting average mirroring his actual and a hit rate that is higher than last year’s, but hardly unsustainable. How much do you risk on a 29-year old repeating something like this?

-Raise your hand if you cut bait on Jose Lopez after his dismal May in which he hit .214 with a .587 OPS. Every single season there are several players like this that struggle early and get discarded or traded off to the patient owner that believes the player will straighten out over the season and end up at or above the levels established over the past three seasons. Lopez has already set a career high in home runs (18) and he is on pace to crush his career high of 89 RBIs set last year (pacing to 101).

-Have you noticed the growth of Asdrubal Cabrera this season? He has shown improvements in all five major roto categories. And it hasn’t just been more playing time, his OPS is up 100 points while his batting average has shot up 56 points. He will be just 24 next year so he is just scraping the surface of his potential. This year saw a major spike in speed (15 stolen bases, up from four last year) and the power spike should be next. Of course, it could be tough in that park. His slugging percentage has already jumped up 83 points from last year, but that has manifested in the form of doubles since Progressive Field is the league’s worst park for home runs. It was 3rd-worst last year, so there is some legitimacy to home run restrictions there.

–Orlando Hudson isn’t exemplary at any one category. You never pinpoint a category and find that Hudson is the answer to moving that needle like Ryan Howard in home runs, Joe Mauer in batting average or Jacoby Ellsbury in stolen bases. Hudson is one of those “glue guys” that gives a solid contribution everywhere and rates higher than someone like Ian Stewart because he doesn’t decimate any of your categories.

-Wouldn’t you know it that Rickie Weeks would enjoy a great start and appear on pace for a career season only to be knocked out for the season with a wrist injury. Wrist injuries are scary with respect to power, but Weeks has been on the shelf for a long time already (since May 18th) so hopefully that will help alleviate the lingering effects heading into 2010. Though he has seemingly been around forever, he will be just 27 next year and I still think he has a breakout 20-20 season in his future. It might not come until 2011, but he will be a great value in 2010 thanks to the injury-shortened season and the career .247 batting average that tends to scare many away from Weeks.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Tuesday: 08.25.2009

2010: Top 12 First Basemen

Continuing my way around the diamond, here is my initial thoughts on first base for next year:

FIRST BASE

1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Prince Fielder
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Justin Morneau
6. Mark Reynolds
7. Ryan Howard
8. Joey Votto
9. Adrian Gonzalez
10. Adam Dunn
11. Kevin Youkilis
12. Kendry Morales

–There is a lot of star power at first base, so it is tough to justify walking away empty-handed from this position unless you are stacked in the outfield and at third base. This list doesn’t even include Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee or Pablo Sandoval, which just goes to show you the depth at the position. Pujols has already put up a season’s worth of numbers and it’s still not even September. He clubbed his 40th home run on Sunday and is on pace for a career-high 52.

–Cabrera’s season has fallen under the radar in a sense. He’s been really good, but he hasn’t had a super hot three-week stretch or anything like that, so your natural inclination might be to think he is having a down year. But a season on pace for 33 home runs, 98 runs, 99 RBI and a .338 average is anything but down.

–Get your mind around this: Fielder won’t turn 26 until next May, yet he has got 2,235 at-bats and 147 home runs already on his record. With 50 home runs becoming special again, owning Fielder means you are rostering one of the select few capable of reaching that figure in any given season.

–Teixeira at No. 4 represents a shift in where I was when I put together my first round for 2010 a few weeks ago. I had Morneau in at 12th and Teix on the cusp. I’ve flipped the two through no fault of Morneau’s. If Teixeira is going to be playing that stadium, he can be a perennial 40-home run threat and that just barely gives him the nod over Morneau.

–Meanwhile, Morneau is as consistent as they come as plows towards his third 30-110 in four years. He is on pace for a career high in runs scored this year, as he is set to top 100 for the first time. He is batting .298 this year, which also happens to be his average over the past four seasons, with 2007’s .271 holding him just under the .300 mark.

–I debated on whether or not to include the multi-qualifiers at just the position I thought they were most valuable at or put them in both rankings. I’ve gone with putting them in both, so here is Reynolds’ debut, but we’ll see him again soon. They are going to be entire articles in this winter’s fantasy magazines dedicated on where to pick Reynolds in 2010 and no two opinions will be the same. The power is legitimate; in fact it led to his inclusion in my sleeper list this year, but beyond things get hazy. Is he a 10-12 base stealer or can he really be counted on for 20-25 a year? How much of the average gains can he hold? He is still a strikeout machine, but that didn’t stop him from hitting .279 in his 366 at-bat rookie season and then .281 so far this year. There might not be a more controversial pick in 2010.

–After all the complaining about Howard’s power being down and 2009 being an off-year for him, he is now on pace for 43 home runs and 133 RBI. Yes, it is a tick down from the last three years, but it is still an excellent season and it is just another example of why you should wait until the end of the season to make definitive judgments on a player. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Howard went off over the last 41 games and his 14-15 home runs to reach the high-40s he has the past two seasons.

–Imagine if Votto hadn’t lost 30 games of his season this year to injuries and then a bout of depression. He is pacing towards a repeat of 2008, but in 30 fewer games played, which illustrates the kind of growth he had this year. He will be just 26 next year and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another step forward. At the very least, we should get a full season of the pace he was on this year, which would mean a .300-30-100 season. He could be a great value in 2010 if people focus on the seemingly stagnant home run and RBI totals without taking into account the missed at-bats.

–What an up-n-down season for Gonzalez. He was the toast of the town after 20 home runs and 40 RBI in the first two months before falling on hard times with just four homers and eight RBI in June and a .198 average in July. He has rebounded again in August and he is back on pace to top 40 home runs. If he keeps pace, he will have the 15th season in major league history with 40+ home runs and less than 100 RBI. The list includes luminaries such as Barry Bonds, Harmon Killebrew, Mickey Mantle (twice), Ken Griffey Jr. and Hank Aaron.

–Like Mark Reynolds, Dunn has experienced an unsuspected batting average boost that has rocketed his value. He’s hitting an absurd .323 on the road, while his .257 is more in line with what we have come to expect from Dunn. Even if his average regresses as I suspect it will, Dunn might be the most bankable power source in the game. He is on pace for a 6th straight 40-homer season in an era where we have seen just 14 other such seasons in the past three seasons across all of baseball. Outfield flexibility only adds to Dunn’s value.

–I was surprised to find some outlets suggest that Youkilis’ 2008 was a fluke and project him to regress back to a mid-teens power hitter. Though clearly not much of a fighter, the guy is an excellent big league hitter and should enjoy another two to three seasons at his peak which equates to an amped up Kevin Millar clone. The tail end of his career arc will follow more closely to the Millar we’ve seen the past few seasons. I like Youkilis more at third base because of the depth here and dearth at the hot corner, but if you land an elite third basemen, then he is a solid guy to plug in at first.

–You’re probably thinking one thing when you see Kendry Morales’ breakout season: FINALLY!!! There were high expectations for the Cuban import, but he failed to get his career off the ground in three short stints since 2006. Whether it was injury or lack of performance, he was just not panning out how many expected. Of course, he was only 23, 24 and 25 years old. At 26, it’d be unfair to call him a late bloomer, especially with only 377 at-bats on his record prior to this year. This breakout isn’t a fluke, as Morales joins the ranks at what has developed into a deep position yet again.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Fantasy Baseball, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Monday: 08.24.2009

2010: Top 12 Catchers

Today I’ll start to make my way around the diamond with a look at the top 12 for 2010 at catcher:

CATCHER
1. Joe Mauer
2. Victor Martinez
3. Brian McCann
4. Mike Napoli
5. Russell Martin
6. Jorge Posada
7. Matt Wieters
8. Geovany Soto
9. Chris Iannetta
10. Kurt Suzuki
11. Bengie Molina
12. A.J. Pierzynski

–This is a position still dominated by players with M-last names. I’ve been touting Mauer as a first-round pick in various outlets, as I believe the power is here to stay. The pace of power will likely slow, but he also doesn’t have a built in month off like he did coming into this season.

–Martinez is a perfect example of why you shouldn’t make too much out of a washed out season killed by injuries. He had four excellent seasons of work backing him up, but that didn’t keep him from dropping significantly in a lot of leagues. He’s now on pace for a career high in home runs (27).

–McCann had to suffer through an atrocious April (.195 average) before figuring out what was wrong. It turns out he couldn’t see. Once he got outfitted with a new pair of glasses, his season took off. He’s on pace for his 4th straight excellent season and he will be just 26 in 2010.

–Napoli’s ability has never been in question during his previous three seasons in the bigs. He had massive power and a batting average that was on the rise, but he just couldn’t stay on the field. His career high prior to 2009 was 268 at-bats. Now he’s at 306 and on pace for 450+, which should yield career highs in home runs and RBI. He’s continued his batting average spike sitting at .294 this season and will remain in his prime when he turns 28 on Halloween this year.

–Martin has had a busted season, but has still carried plenty of value at catcher. He will be just 27 at the beginning of next season, so it’d be foolish to write him off after a down season.

–Like Martinez, Posada had an injury-riddled 2008, but he has bounced back as good as ever, especially for a 38-year-old. In that stadium, Posada remains viable even if only in 120-130 games.

Based on the expectations and absurd draft round in many leagues, Wieters has been a bust this season. He’s on pace to top 350 at-bats, yet he’s hitting just .264 and he’s on pace for a meager seven home runs and 33 RBI. Hell hath no fury like a fantasy player scorned. Wieters will drop to a more reasonable round in many leagues and below value in many others, but it’d be dumb to give up on him for not meeting the unrealistic expectations set upon him this season. He could be a classic post-hype sleeper depending on his 2009 finish.

–The reigning National League Rookie of the Year has flopped this year to say the least. Geovany Soto has hit .217 and has just nine home runs this season. He’s been ravaged by injuries and managed to play just 81 games, which sets up a great potential value in 2010.

–I expected more out of Chris Iannetta in 2009, but the .221 batting average makes his season look a lot worse than it has been. He is on pace for a useful 21 home runs and 72 RBI, but he once again failed to play anything approaching a full season – even for a catcher (on pace for 118 games). He has a sharp eye, big power and turns just 27 next year.

–Suzuki has made big strides again in 2009, adding some solid power to his game and becoming a viable catcher option across all league formats. He is on pace to top 70 runs scored and runs driven in, which isn’t too bad in Oakland’s putrid offense.

–The emergence of Buster Posey puts Molina’s 2010 home in doubt. Regardless of where he plays, he is going to be a late-round option that is worth more than his draft position with legitimate power and an average that won’t kill you. He can be a disaster in OBP league (.280), but plays well in standard 5x5s.

–Pierzynski is like Molina in that neither are particularly exciting picks, yet both have value and are capable of being much better than their draft position.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Strategy | 4 Comments »

Tuesday: 08.18.2009

Must Sleep!

No Boxscore Blasts yesterday and today as I desperately try to get myself on track after switching work schedules from 12p-9p to 8a-5p. It’s a lot harder than you’d think!

Posted in Baseball | Leave a Comment »

Saturday: 08.15.2009

2010: The First Round

This article appeared on Fanball.com’s Owner’s Edge on August 8th:

Today I am headed to the 2010 crystal ball and I am going to piece together how I feel the first round in next March’s fantasy drafts should go. This is, of course, subject to change from now until hours before said drafts, but it’s always fun to start this exercise early and watch it evolve.

JUST MISSED

Let’s first start with a group of players that didn’t make the dozen (by the way, I realize some places advocate a 10-team as a standard league, but I honestly can’t stand them; I think 12 teamers are far superior and even 14-16 teams is ideal).

— All Pitchers – It is a well documented fact that pitchers carry higher risk than hitters and while you will invariably roster some risk, doing so in the first round is just foolish. Tim Lincecum is fantastic as are Johan Santana and Roy Halladay, but there isn’t a snowball’s chance of any of them landing on my roster in a draft league if the asking price is going to be that high. There are countless examples that I would cite as to why I won’t take a starting pitcher that high and most of them are names of guys that cost next to nothing and excelled, but others are guys that were “can’t miss” fantasy aces and they missed. I’ll spare you time and just mention the most recent: Brandon Webb. Anyone that tells you they could’ve seen this coming is a bold face liar. Webb was the definition of a workhorse with five straights seasons of 208+ innings and an ERA below 3.60 in all of them. He raised his wins yearly and his strikeouts in the first four before dipping down from 194 to 183 in 2008. No one, and again I mean no one, would’ve predicted that he’d throw one poor four inning outing and then spend the remainder of the season on the shelf. So feel free to take your ace pitcher in the first (or second) round and absorb the massive risk. I’m comfortable scouting for next guy left for dead after one down season (Justin Verlander), or the next injury comeback that slips because of the lack of recent production (Josh Johnson, Webb in 2010), or the next prospect who has been up so long without amazing results that he’s labeled a bust when in actuality he’s just hitting his prime (Edwin Jackson) or lastly the massively skilled guy that didn’t have the performance to match who is now in a much friendlier situation and ready to explode or re-explode in this particular case (Javier Vazquez).

–Grady Sizemore, OF, Cleveland Indians – Make no mistake, I love me a 2010 Grady Sizemore. He’s going to be underrated because of this wretched season (as compared to expectations) and provide some big time value a la Carl Crawford this year (of whom, if I may toot my horn a smidge, I said this about in a top 100 outfielders list this preseason, “Nothing in his foundational skills suggest that he won’t come back as good as ever in 2009 so invest the standard 50-stolen base speed with double digit power, a ton of runs, around 75 driven in and a .300 average.” He’s pacing for – 107 R, 18 HR, 78 RBI, 77 SB, .314 AVG). It’s not like Crawford was going in the 5th or 6th round and Sizemore won’t either, but you could see him drop into the 3rd for sure. Since the batting average was already an issue in his 30-30 season of 2008, it’s impossible to recommend him with your #1 pick even on the expectation that he’s at least a 25-25 guy. He should probably be moved from the leadoff spot on a permanent basis starting in 2010. Then we will finally start to see the 100-RBI seasons start rolling in.

–Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees – I was very excited for Teix to head to the Big Apple. As an aside, I’d have been more excited about 2009 had he stayed in Los Angeles with the Angels. Anyway, I still expected plenty of excellence from Teixeira once he signed with the Yanks. He sputtered out of the gate as he’s wont to do with a .200/.367/.371 line and three home runs. I wasn’t deterred. Not only did I hold Teixeira in the four leagues I had him in, I actually sought to acquire him in two others. As we know, he blew up in May with 13 home runs, 34 RBIs and a blistering 1.139 OPS. He’s re-entered the atmosphere again and maintained solid if unspectacular production ever since. Stats are stats and they all go towards the bottom line in a rotisserie league, but to see someone hit 48% of their home run total to date in one month is a bit disconcerting. It’s an odd enough sample to be considered a fluke. So while Teix’s move to New York has him on pace to finally reach the 40-HR plateau again, I’m not sold enough on him as a Yankee to believe that he is a first rounder.

–Mark Reynolds, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks – If I had to guess, I would say that Reynolds has been the catalyst for a lot first place teams in fantasy leagues across the country. His MVP-caliber numbers at his clearance bin cost represent perhaps the best value of the season. He is on pace for an absurd 48 HR/30 SB season. But even more shocking than either of those figures is the .283 average. Reynolds is a human air conditioner with a 37% strikeout rate in 1297 major league at-bats. And that lack of contact puts a batting average at risk as evidenced by his .239 last year. The power is absolutely legitimate so at worst he’s a 30 HR threat for the foreseeable future. The speed, like the batting average, is a question. He did manage 11 stolen bases in 2008, but he’s nearly doubled that this year with two months to go. Simply put, his 2009 emergence cannot be trusted as an expectations guideline going forward. Some leagues will see him go very high, but there is a lot of risk here.

–Matt Holliday, OF, St. Louis Cardinals – I know what you’re thinking: “Well duh, of course he’s not a first round. Why is he even in the honorable mention list?” Well for one, he’s an excellent player. After he was traded to Oakland, throngs of people thought he would suck and once he had a terrible April, they felt validated and acted as if the season was over right then & there. He righted the ship in the Bay Area and while the numbers were definitely depressed a bit because of the harder league and much less friendly home park he still ended his brief Oakland stay with an .832 OPS. Since his trade back to the National League, he’s been perhaps the best hitter in the league with a .488 average and 1.386 OPS in his small 43 at-bat sample. Despite all of the nonsense posted about how Holliday would all of a sudden become Jacque Jones or something, he is on pace for a sold 21 HR/19 SB season with totals nearing 100 in runs scored and driven in. Thanks to his St. Louis boost, he’s now up over .300, too. I think he will stay with the Cardinals and be a very appetizing pick for those with a late first round draft slot. In the end, I don’t think he makes the cut, but he is very much an elite player.

–Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets – I wouldn’t have moved him out of the first round based on one injury-riddled season if the injury wasn’t in the legs. Despite three straight double-digit home run seasons, Reyes’ value is without question in his speed. He has averaged 65 stolen bases in the past four seasons which is such an advantage in a heavily valued category. I was actually advocating him as the #1 overall pick (Albert who?) this offseason because he overwhelms in two categories (stolen bases and runs scored) while contributing significantly in the three others (average, home runs, RBIs). He’s still just 26 yet he has four full season and parts of two others before this year under his belt. If he has a clean bill of health and there is no expectation that he will be slowed by the injury that has limited his 2009 to 147 at-bats, then I will assuredly slot him back into the first round. But until then, he’s on the outside looking in because of the risk.

THE FIRST ROUND

12. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins – Morneau already has a few brilliant seasons under his belt including an MVP campaign, but his 2009 is shaping up to be the best yet. All he did in Joe Mauer‘s absence this April was hit .318 and post a .922 OPS. And when Mauer came back and just unleashed himself on the league, Morneau was there in lockstep with him accumulating a .361/.459/.713 line with nine home runs to Mauer’s 11. I think the perception is that first base is deeper than it actually is, but really it’s star-laden at the top and then it drops. Kendry Morales‘ emergence, Derrek Lee‘s resurgence and Mark Reynolds‘ qualification there certainly helps (though he’s likely still more valuable at third). I think Morneau himself is also a bit underrated in that you don’t always hear his name when talks of the elite first basemen begin, but most certainly belongs there thanks to a fourth straight powerhouse performance.

11. Prince Fielder, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers – See? I told you first base had star power. Fielder has 95 RBIs so far this season in 108 games, which is just seven fewer than he had all year in 2008 with 51 more games on his record. His 50-HR campaign is looking a little like Mark Teixeira‘s 40-HR season in that people thought that would become the norm when in actuality it became the high watermark that he may touch again in his career, but he is unlikely to approach perennially. This year Fielder has added a strong batting average to his arsenal as he is currently hitting .302, but don’t focus on that. The immense power and run production is why you invest in Fielder. He hit .288 in 2007 and followed it up with a .276 in 2008. The perception of a 12-point drop and the reality of it are very different and the same goes for the .276 as compared to this year’s .302. Overall, we’re really talking about a 7-8 +/- hit variance year over year given Fielder’s usual 575-580 at-bat sample. He is on pace for 39 home runs meaning he could easily reach 40 with a little luck. That means he’d have 50 and 40 home run seasons under his belt before turning 26. He is an amazing talent and the best is still on the way.

10. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers – You didn’t believe me about that first base star power did you? There might even be one more coming in this top 10. Cabrera is a bona fide stud, plain and simple. He will need an RBI surge to notch his sixth straight 30-100 season (and as a Tigers fan, I’d LOVE to see a surge like he had last year in the 2nd half, but I digress). It took him a season in the new, more difficult league, but Cabrera has found his stroke once again and is headed for his second best batting average ever at .333. It’s odd to pretend as if last year’s .292 was some sort of slump or down year, but when you set the bar that high, these things happen. Cabrera still has at least one, if not a few .340-40-140 campaigns in his future. He will turn 27 early into the 2010 season, an age which is often regarded as the beginning of a hitter’s “prime years”. It is truly frightening to think that Cabrera can and almost assuredly will get better.

9. David Wright, 3B, New York Mets – To hear it from a Mets fan, Wright’s massive power outage can be blamed on Citi Field’s cavernous ways. Of course those very same people are aghast to find out that Citi Field is at the very least hitter-neutral and on some park factor lists, actually hitter-friendly when it comes to home runs. And that doesn’t even begin to address why Wright isn’t hitting home runs on the road if it’s only his home park causing the problem. Even with the power outage, Wright has been a top 15 fantasy producer this year thanks to a strong batting average (.323) and 23 stolen bases already. Even if he hadn’t boosted those two categories to offset his power shortcomings, I wasn’t going to banish a 26 (will be 27 at the start of 2010) year old superstar from the first round. He posted four straight seasons over 25 home runs before this year including a 30-30 campaign in 2007. If I didn’t have him in a key NL-Only money league, I’d almost be wishing for him to hit 10 or fewer home runs so the knee-jerk reactors would swear off of his for 2010 and pump up his value for those of us that know enough not to place too much emphasis on this one season when he has 2650 at-bats of excellence under his belt.

8. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins – I debated about whether or not to slot him higher, but my recent comments about overemphasizing one year with respect to a down year are in play for a good year, too. Perhaps Mauer stole Wright’s power. Either way, it’s a skill never before displayed by Mauer at such a high level making it suspect moving forward. The upshot is that he didn’t sacrifice a single bit of his batting average once the power arrived, in fact he’s on pace for a career high .359. His 2009 at the deepest position on the diamond would be jaw dropping so to see them come from a catcher is just mind blowing. And because he is such a tremendous hitter I think his new found skill is here to stay, at least most of it. Think about how much value you’re getting with a first baseman’s line at catcher. I think Mauer hits .320-25-90-90 in his sleep for the next several seasons (provided health) with the capability of so much more as his 2009 injury-shortened season has shown. The talk about moving him from behind the dish has been in play for almost his whole career, but he’s apparently said he wants to stay there. I would just suggest you enjoy it while you can.

7. Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees – I almost feel wrong slotting A-Rod this far down the list, but I think it’s an accurate position for him. Similar to Mauer, A-Rod is having a very strong season despite missing over a month to injury. I think if you had told A-Rod owners that they would have to absorb his weak batting average (.261) in order to get 80 runs, 33 home runs, 103 RBIs and 12 stolen bases-all of which he’s on pace for this season-they would’ve been thrilled. He was tumbling down into the 6th and 7th rounds in some leagues because fantasy owners were so paralyzed with fear. The reason I didn’t end up putting A-Rod higher is that the simple fact is because he is 34 years old and he’s not invincible. He is a world-class player that dominated his sport for years and still has several great years left in him, but as he ages the speed will continue to deteriorate and the batting average will suffer, too.S

6. Carl Crawford, OF, Tampa Bay Rays – Welcome back, C2! After the seasons Crawford had been putting up (five straight seasons over 45 SBs, four of those w/50+), it was so completely obvious that health was what held him back in 2008. In fact it killed his season. It essentially made him waiver wire fodder. But that is all in the past now and he has decided to make up for lost time by running wild this year. If he keeps at his current pace, he will smash his career high of 59 and end up with 77! The 12 home runs he has already would have been enough to satiate most owners, but he’s got two months to match or exceed his career high of 18. Simply put: Crawford is in the midst of his prime and he is a legitimate five-category contributor when healthy.

5. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers – He just hasn’t slowed down since his amazing rookie campaign back in 2007. He is a four-category stud and maintains mid-teens speed giving him across-the-board viability. The crazy thing is that he will be just 26 years old next year meaning he likely hasn’t even come close to peaking. He definitely has 40 home run power in his bat and he could feasibly string together three or four such seasons. The speed may trickle down as he goes through his late 20s, but that’s all just gravy anyway since you’re buying the massive power production, runs scored and .300+ batting average. It’s a shame he was such a butcher at third base because he would be even more valuable on the infield.

4. Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – It’s hard to find something not to like about this blossoming 24-year old (will turn 25 before 2010). He has a better than .300 career average, incredible speed (35 SBs last year and on pace for 33 more this year) and developing power. He’s set to top 20 home runs for the first time in his career this year and he’s on pace for an incredible 104 RBIs. Why would a 104-RBI season be incredible? Because Kemp has spent the bulk of his season hitting 6th, 7th or 8th in the lineup. He’s even batted 9th 11 times! It is tough to argue with the production down there, but that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t excel as the 5th hitter if he were left there for a significant sample. The wart that Kemp does have is his strikeout rate. He was at 25% last year tallying 153 strikeouts. He’s on pace to cut total down by about 15 or so this season. If he keeps putting up these kinds of numbers on offense, then I can deal with his strikeout rate, but seeing how he has progressed since his first season leads me to believe he will correct that strikeout rate as he ages.

3. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies – What if I told you that I had a .300-30-100-100-15 guy available to you in the first round? In fact he’s somewhat underrated as compared to other superstars so you might get him later in the first round. Is that something that would interest you? Of course it is. Now what if I told you this guy played second base? I know, you’d do back flips. Chase Utley is just amazing. Kanye West may have made that song with him in mind actually. Though 30 (he will be 31 by 2010 opener), he has shown no signs of slowing down any time soon. I think he will stand as a viable first round candidate for at least the next two years before he starts his decline phase.

2. Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida Marlins – I am still not entirely certain he doesn’t deserve the top spot. What can’t he do? The move down in the lineup has curbed his stolen base production, but the 28 he is on pace for is nothing to sneeze at, either. And this year he has countered that dip in speed with a career high .344 batting average and more RBIs (which were expected in the 3-hole). It blows my mind to think that he will be just 26 next year. When you stack the numbers with the guy residing in the top spot (have you figured out who it is yet?), it’s clear to see why it’s tough to pick one ahead of the other. Then you factor in Ramirez’s position and the decision gets even murkier. The reason I eventually landed on Ramirez at 2 is because while you know you can expect greatness, it is not entirely certain where it will come from within the five categories. Will his speed continue to trickle down as a middle-of-the-order producer? Will the power go back up to last year’s mid-30s heights and beyond? Is a .330-.340 hitter or more a .300-.310 hitter? There is a pretty significant difference over the course of 600+ at-bats. What I do know for sure is that if someone flips these top two, I wouldn’t really argue. They are the quintessential 1 and 1a split by millimeters at best.

1. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals – This guy is absurd. I really could end it right there and I don’t think anyone would find it weird. But I’ll elaborate a bit. The 2007 and 2008 seasons are what you get when Pujols isn’t really 100% and they were still both fantastic seasons. Now he is operating at 100% and we see the damage he is doing. He’s a four category superstar and he’s brought back the speed he flashed back in 2005. He’s already reached double-digit steals and he’s on pace for 15. He’s also on pace to be the first player to top 50 home runs since 2008 (Ryan Howard, 58). I think the part of Pujols’s flawless game that gets overlooked, at least to a degree, is the batting average. Getting 550-600 at-bats of .330+ batting average is incredible. As I mentioned earlier, I think Matt Holliday will stay in St. Louis to keep that lineup clicking around Pujols. He’s my #1 for 2010.

Posted in 2010 Fantasy Guide, All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Strategy | 1 Comment »

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