Archive for June, 2010

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Friday: 06.18.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/18/10 Show Notes

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota Twins – With a 1-for-4 effort off of Ubaldo Jimenez on Thursday, Kubel ran his hitting streak to nine games as he continues to dig out of the enormous hole he built for himself in April and deepened in May. Hitting .225 when the streak started, he is now up to .248 while his power production is on very solid 24/101 pace. As he continues to creep closer toward his career .274 average, you could anticipate his counting stat paces to actually improve, too. He is only on pace for 56 runs scored which underscores how bad the 7-8-9 hitters have performed in Minnesota or just how painfully slow Kubel is on the basepath.

I projected him for 35 home runs in the preseason and I still believe he can push for that figure, but even if he falls short, he appears likely to match his 28/103 output from a year ago. Despite that fact, he is owned in 68% of CBS leagues, 57% of ESPN leagues and just 51% of Yahoo! Leagues. If you need some legitimate power production, you need to go out and grab Kubel.

Article of the Day

Featured Piece: A Closer Look at Austin Jackson – by Paul Sporer

Today’s article of the day comes from yours truly. I wrote an extensive piece about Austin Jackson and the excellent start to his major league career. I submitted it to the Fangraphs.com Community Blog and they posted it. I wrote about how he isn’t getting enough credit for excelling as a rookie leadoff hitter playing one of the toughest defensive positions brilliantly. Instead all of the focus goes toward his strikeout total. Though gaudy and in need of some help, there is more to the story with his punchouts.

Others:
The Internet Cried a Little When You Wrote that on it – by Mike Fast
Strasburg Makes Sense for the All-Star Game – by Jon Morosi
Wait, WHO has 18 Home Runs? – by Eric Seidman (sub. req.)
Joe Mauer and His Power Outage – by Bloomberg Sports
The Day that Moneyball Died – by Joe Posnanski
Delmon Young Maturing with Twins – by Tracy Ringolsby

Bet of the day

Jon Lester brought me back to even in record at 2-2 with his win on Wednesday against the Diamondbacks. But from a units standpoint, I’m still in the red. I’m currently at -$34 dollars. By the way, thanks to Jeff from Mason City, IA for pointing out that the win-loss record is fun and all, but keeping track of the hypothetical units won or lost is where it’s at with a segment like this.

For Friday, I’m taking the Mets at +170 against Javier Vazquez and the Yankees. I know Vazquez has been rolling lately and the streak got started with a nice outing against the Mets, but the bomb out potential for him remains. Meanwhile Hisanori Takahashi is going for the Mets and he opposed Vazquez that night and matched him tit for tat as both went six shutout innings.

Mets +170
Record: 2-2, -$34

Spot Starters

Thursday Review: R.A. Dickey dominanted Cleveland; Luke Hochevar was scratched and placed on the DL

Weekend Picks: Rick Porcello v. ARI, Jake Arrieta @ SD

***Programming Note*** there will be no podcasts this weekend as I’m going to Houston for the Astros-Rangers game on Saturday and then just taking Sunday off.

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Posted in All BbP Originals, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Podcast, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Stephen Strasburg, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 06.17.2010

Baseball by Paul Thursday Show Cancelled

Sorry everyone. Had some things come up this morning and now my day job is going to prevent me from getting the Thursday show done & recorded. But I’ll be back tomorrow morning with plenty of great stuff.

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Wednesday: 06.16.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/16/10 Show Notes

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Trevor Cahill, SP, Oakland A’s

Today’s TtW focuses on Cahill of the Oakland A’s. Though he wasn’t great last night against the Cubs, giving up 4 in 5.2 innings, his ERA for the season is still just 3.23 and he ran his record to 6-2 with the win. More importantly, he struck out 5 while walking just 2. Strikeouts have been an issue with Cahill early on in his career, but he’s got 17 in 19.2 June innings which is a 7.0 rate and much better than his 5.1 season mark.

If he can continue to strike out guys at a 7 per 9 rate, then he can be a huge asset this year. In the meantime, he’s a big time talent who plays in a very favorable home park and only twice this year has he given up more than 3 runs in a start. I also really like him for rebuilding teams with an eye toward 2011 as I think he will really come into his own next year while being a bit inconsistent throughout the rest of this year.

Articles of the Day

Featured Piece: Joe Sheehan Newsletter

You may know Sheehan from his work at Baseball Prospectus or SportsIllustrated.com the latter of which he still does, but his mostly daily newsletter is a tremendous read. I can’t recommend it enough. It is well worth the $20 for the season. Here is an excerpt from Monday’s piece:

You can’t blame Kenny Williams for that kind of failure. Ramirez was never going to be a star, but he’s played better than this, and the other two players are well off anyone’s projections for them. Williams’ brutal offseason is a reason why the Sox have disappointed, though, as he spent his time bringing in or retaining players who have failed to add anything to the offense. Juan Pierre has a .316 OBP that is just killing the Sox.in the leadoff slot. When he broke his finger, Mark Teahen was hitting .255/.340/.387, good for this team, bad for an corner player in the AL. Mark Kotsay, who hasn’t been useful in years, was signed to be a platoon DH. He’s at .202/.299/.364. Jones is the big win, with his .211/.328/.469 line, and even that’s inflated. Jones is hitting under .200 with a sub-.700 OPS since April. Williams, who got most of his attention for declining to retain Jermaine Dye, deserves more criticism for what he did than for what he didn’t do. He identified the wrong solutions to the Sox’ offensive problems.

Others:
It’s OK to Believe the Strasburg Hype – by Grant Paulsen

Let Tuesday Roll – by Ray Flowers

Review of the Bloomberg Sports iPhone App – by Josh Fliegel

DeJesus to be a Major Part of Royals Deadline Dealing – by Bob Dutton

The Gamble of Alex Rios is Paying Off Nicely – by Mark Gonzales

Bet of the Day

Today’s play is Jon Lester and the Boston Red Sox -1.5 against Rodrigo Lopez and the D’Backs. Lester’s moneyline is -260, but that gets sliced in half to -130 if you lay the runs. I think it’s worth at as Lester will look to bounce back in a big way after getting knocked around in Cleveland his last time out.

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 at -130
Record: 1-2

Thursday Spot Starts

Luke Hochevar v. Houston – You can pick on Houston with just about any decent starter. And that’s exactly what Hochevar is, decent. He’s got six really good starts, some average ones and three implosions. Houston seems like a perfect opportunity to grab his 7th really good start.

R.A. Dickey v. Cleveland – Speaking of teams to pick on, Cleveland is an ideal candidate with their decimated team. Dickey may seem like a fluke because he come out of nowhere to go 4-0 in his first five starts, but with a 6.7 K/9, 2.4 K/BB and .329 BABIP supporting him, he’s not due for a major implosion. The LOB% of 83% will come down and the 6.3 HR/9 will see a correction as well, but that won’t take him from viable to starter to irrelevant waiver wire fodder. He’s much closer to a 3.78 ERA pitcher than the 2.78 he has right now, but that’s still pretty worthwhile.

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Tuesday: 06.15.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/15/10 Show Notes

Here are the show notes from the Tuesday, June 15th episode:

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Lyle Overbay, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays

If I told you that Aaron Hill had a .641 OPS, Adam Lind just .634 and Lyle Overbay an uninspiring .710 and then had you guess the Toronto Blue Jays record, what would you say? Probably something like 22-43. No, they’re 34-30 despite three of their more prominent hitters giving them next to nothing at the plate. Today’s trolling the wire focuses on the latter of those three, Lyle Overbay. Overbay isn’t a top level first base option by any stretch of the imagination. He has a career .806 OPS and averages 17 HR and 75 RBI while hitting .276. That makes him an AL-Only 1B and a mixed league corner/DH type. This year he has been waiver wire fodder, but that is slowly changing.

After an 0-for-4 on May 11th, Overbay’s average was down to .169 and he had hit just one homer. Since then, he is hitting .309 (34-for-110) with five home runs and 16 RBIs raising his average a whopping 66 points and his OPS an eye-popping 165 points in little over a month. Of course the composite numbers are still a little weak so he remains on many waiver wires. Even with his struggles, he is still outperforming Derrek Lee, Lance Berkman, Todd Helton and rookie favorite Justin Smoak on the player rater. His home run pace is back in line with his career norms at 18 and the 68 RBI pace is just off the career mark. If you are looking to fortify your corner infield in light of the position-wide underachievement, then Overbay is a nice option who is almost assuredly available for free in your league.

Articles of the Day

Featured Piece: F-Bomb 2.0: How close is Francisco Liriano to 2006? – by Aaron Gleeman

Others:
Assessing the Trade Market for Cliff Lee & Roy Oswalt – by Jon Heyman

Buzz from Around the Horn – by Ken Rosenthal

Cliff Lee Possibly Moving AGAIN – by Jeff Passan

Jason Hammel Returns After DL Stint – by Jason Grey (Insider required, but well worth it.)

The Anatomy of Galarraga’s Strong Start – by Joe Pawlikowski

Bet of the Day

Today was an easy pick for me. Any time I see Philadelphia as an underdog with Roy Halladay pitching, I’m automatically taking them. I realize their offense has been awful of late, but I can’t pass up the opportunity to get positive odds on a Halladay start. The Phils go to New York to face CC Sabathia and Yankees, but I’m going with the road team.

Pick: Phillies +110
Record: 1-1

Wednesday Spot Starts

Anibal Sanchez v. Texas Rangers – he’s become a must start across all formats at this point, yet he is still on plenty of waiver wires.

Zach Duke v. Chicago White Sox – this one is much more risky, but the Sox are awful against lefties so this could be a chance to pick up a solid start in DEEEEP leagues.

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Monday: 06.14.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/14/10 Show Notes

Here are the show notes from the Monday, June 14th episode:

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Edwin Jackson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks – Jackson threw eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts on May 17th which was far and away his best start of the season. His ERA had been 7.43 to that point, but since that start he’s gone 2-1 in five starts with a 2.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 44.1 innings. He also has 43 strikeouts in that span. He looked pretty sharp against the Cardinals yesterday going 6.2 innings and allowing just two runs.

Since his season ERA is still a gaudy 5.18, he is likely on plenty of waiver wires, but I think it’s time to grab if you need some strikeouts and some quality innings. Don’t count on many wins with that atrocious bullpen supporting him, but wins are unpredictable anyway so that shouldn’t be your reason for picking someone up.

Article of the Day

What Should the Nationals Do? by R.J. Anderson

Bet of the Day

I’m going back to the well with the Cardinals even though they cost me yesterday. Instead of taking the moneyline, I’ll go with the runline as Adam Wainwright faces Luke French.

Baseball Book of the Week

The Machine by Joe Posnanski

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Sunday: 06.13.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/13/10 Show Notes

Here are the show notes from the Sunday, June 13th episode:

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Trolling the Wire Pickup

Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds – He had a solid 42-game cup of coffee with the Cincinnati Reds last year elevating his status as a power-speed combo capable of 20-20 over a full season. After a .186/.301/.271 April, the only 20-20 he was assured was 20 runs and 20 RBIs. He was dropped across many formats despite some decent plate discipline and seven stolen bases. He rewarded those who stuck with him by delivering a .273/.339/.525 May including 5 HR, 18 RBI and four more steals. He has tailed off a bit midway thru June, but he is still on pace for 19 HR, 83 RBI, 32 SB and 94 R. The price to pay for that is his .242 average, but it’s worth it if you can afford the BA dent.

Stubbs is owned in just 40% of ESPN leagues right now despite being the 34th-rated outfielder on their Player Rater. That puts him ahead of guys like Bobby Abreu, Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Matt Holliday and Hunter Pence. In other words, he needs to be owned even with the light batting average.

Article of the Day

What Makes a Fantasy Baseball Keeper? by Ron Henry

Bet of the Day

Since I’m taping this later that I wanted thanks to an impromptu visit from my sister this morning, I will avoid the early games for the Bet of the Day since that information would entirely useless.

I like the St. Louis Cardinals coming in at -134 with Chris Carpenter taking on Edwin Jackson. That’s a pretty good price for an elite ace so I would try that out.

Cardinals -134

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Saturday: 06.12.2010

Baseball by Paul 6/12/10 Show Notes

Here are the show notes from the Saturday, June 12th episode:

Trolling the Wire Pickup

Jason Hammel, SP, Colorado Rockies – He has been EXCELLENT in his last four starts and in five of six since returning from the disabled list. Now might be the last chance to get him as he owned the Toronto Blue Jays tonight going eight shutout innings allowing just three hits and walking three others while striking out six. Taking out his May 21st start at Kansas City, Hammel is 4-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his 34 innings with 7.6 K/9 and a 3.6 K/BB ratio. Even leaving the start in only takes his ERA to 2.41 and actually lowers his WHIP a tick to 1.07 while the K/BB ratio also moves up slightly to 3.9.

He was solid in 2009, though mostly an NL only play with a 4.33 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 176.2 innings. He had a huge home/road split going 3-3 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 81.2 innings at Coors Field while putting together a 7-5 record with a 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP on the road.

The oddest thing about the severe split was that his strikeout-to-walk rate was significantly better at home. This year, he has reversed the split statistically with the better record, ERA and WHIP at home, but the better strikeout-to-walk ratio on the road. That said, he is pitching well enough that I would start him anywhere right now. Last year, avoiding Coors was the right play, but there isn’t enough data to buy into a home/road split with Hammel right now. He’s proven he can pitch on the road and this year he appears to have corrected the home woes making him a full-time option in deeper mixed league formats as well as all NL-Only leagues.

The Minor Leaguer Strategy

Some of the strategies I will discuss on this show include one I learned from Mike Siano of MLB Network’s Fantasy 411 show. He brought it up last year and what he does is picks up a hot minor leaguer on Thursday when fewer teams are playing and just holds the guy through the weekend in hopes of him getting called up. If he’s not called up by the new week’s deadline, he cuts ties and tries it again next week. This landed him Tommy Hanson in one of his league’s last year and Mike Stanton this year. Employing the strategy would’ve also gotten you Carlos Santana and Buster Posey, too.

In both cases, the young catchers received what essentially boils down to votes of non-confidence. Their front offices said they were still working on important aspects of their game and would not be called up all that soon. And in both cases, they were called up shortly thereafter. Posey came on a Saturday in late May and Santana was called up just yesterday on a Friday. Now in any only league with a reserve or keeper list, neither of these guys would be found on the wire, but they were available in a lot of mixed leagues because the roster spot was too precious to hold open for them.

The next players I would recommend trying this strategy with are Pittsburgh’s Pedro Alvarez and Philly’s Dominic Brown. Pittsburgh knows the future is now and their lineup is already chocked full of youngsters especially after they recently called up Jose Tabata and Brad Lincoln. Alvarez can’t be far off. He’s has a .291/.378/.551 triple slash line with 12 home runs and 51 RBIs. Andy LaRoche just doesn’t appear to be as good as his minor league numbers suggested. He’s hitting .240 with three home runs and 12 RBIs in 167 ABs so there is no reason for him to block Alvarez much longer.

Brown is a bigger gamble because he is only in AA right now, but so was Stanton. Brown is hitting .311/.381/.568 with 10 home runs, 36 RBIs and 9 stolen bases in 190 at-bats so far. When you add that to his 37 games at AA last year, he’s hitting .297/.376/.472 with 13 bombs, 56 RBIs and 17 stolen bases in 337 at-bats. At the very least, he seems ready for a promotion to AAA. But with the Phillies struggling to get any consistency at the dish and Raul Ibanez a major part of those problems, it wouldn’t be farfetched to see the Phils promote Brown to the majors. After all, there is very little chance that Jayson Werth will be resigned next year and Brown is the heir apparent. Perhaps they could play together for three and a half months before the baton is passed entirely.

Jason Castro is another name that leapt to mind. Houston is awful. Their catching situation is awful and it’s about time they infuse some young talent into their team.

Article of the Day

Cole Hamels: Still the Same Pitcher? by Eno Sarris

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