With the 2011 Starting Pitcher Guide slated for next month, I have a jam packed volume covering all the ins and outs of starting pitching in the 2011 season for your viewing pleasure. Of course that doesn’t do much to address the offensive side of things so I decided to start this “Three Questions” where I will cover some key offensive issues for each of the 30 teams. There will be more content here dealing with offense, but this is the beginning.
Michael Young. Go.
OK, that’s not really a question, but his offseason has been one of uncertainty with the signing of Adrian Beltre and Baseball-Reference.com referring to him as Mike Young for some reason, so what does 2011 have in store for him? For fantasy purposes the movement on the diamond whether over to first base or off the field to designated hitter has no real impact on his fantasy value because he will still qualify at third base based on last year. That is where his value is highest without question. I can’t really see the position move impacting his offense too much, either, though sometimes guys just don’t respond well to DH’ing.
Young has been a legitimate fantasy asset now for eight straight seasons and even at 34 years old there is nothing in his profile to suggest that will change. The batting average dipped below .300 for only the second time in the eight year stretch since 2003, but with his flyball rate climbing yearly since 2007, that is hardly shocking. The tradeoff is the likelihood of his power staying in the upper teens, lower 20s area. His team dependent numbers should remains strong as the lineup actually gets better than its 2010 iteration with addition of Beltre. With third base still one of the thinner positions on the infield (shortstop is the thinnest), Young remains a quality asset whether at third or filling your corner infielder spot.
Can Mitch Moreland hold the first base spot all year or does Chris Davis take that job and run with it?
Moreland joined the Rangers late in July and enjoyed a solid 47-game stint, but the results aren’t indicative of what you should expect over a full season. He showed uncharacteristic power (9 HR in 145 AB; 12 in 353 minor lg. AB) thanks to a 21.2% HR/FB which would be tough to sustain over an entire season and would certainly qualify as an upset if he did it. With a 29 AB/HR rate in 1398 minor league at-bats, no one is betting he is going to sustain his 16 HR/AB over a full season in the majors.
Conversely, he showed a much better knack for getting base hits in the minors than he did in his short time at the big leagues. A career .313 hitter in the minors, Moreland hit just .255 in his time with the Rangers. In essence, I would bet on the two trends reversing where he a low double-digit home run total for the season would be paired with a .285+ batting average and above average plate discipline.
But will it be enough? For your fantasy team, not in mixed leagues as he profiles as a slightly better Daric Barton. For the Rangers, that is to be determined. Davis is a prototypical AAAA guy who has mashed his way through the minor leagues on multiple occasions, but failed to carry it into the big leagues in his last two years after a strong rookie debut in 2008. Of course despite being written off as a complete bust by most, he is still just 25 years old. Plenty of guys don’t even start their major league career until age 25 and he already has 872 major plate appearances under his belt so it’s far from over for him.
On the whole, Davis has more upside than Moreland related specifically to his prodigious power so inking Moreland in at first base on your Texas Rangers lineup projection is dangerous. A lot can change between now and Opening Day. It is a situation to monitor closely throughout the spring, but in the end it is one to avoid in anything but the deepest leagues where I would be more willing to gamble on Davis with a late pick if he has a solid spring than invest in Moreland’s higher floor, but much lower ceiling.
Is this the year that Ian Kinsler finally puts it *all* together?
Kinsler, a fantasy favorite for a few years now, has a 30-30 season (2009), a 20-20 season (2007), a .319 season (2008), a .517 slugging season (2008), two 100 runs scored seasons and two All-Star appearances (2008, 2010) yet his career still feels like something of a disappointment when you realize it could be so much better. In the 30-30 and 20-20 seasons, he hit .253 and .263 respectively. In the All-Star seasons he only played 121 and 101 games. In fact he’s only played more than 130 games once in his five year career. He is either putting up an incredible minus one key factor and/or having injuries cut dream seasons short.
So is 2011 the season of 150 games, 100-30-90-30? … No, of course not. Sorry, but there is just no way you can realistically project that at 29 he is all of a sudden going to make it through an entire season. Health is a skill and it’s one he lacks. That said, he is still generally putting up a season’s worth of numbers in the 100-odd games he does play so he is still worth drafting relatively given the risk, but I think it would be foolish to reach for him at a position that has a lot more depth than many seem to realize.
Maybe shortstop’s stink drifts over to second base or fantasy owners just associate middle infield positions with scarcity, but second base has plenty of viable option. Those automatically ahead of Kinsler for include Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips. After that group, Kinsler’s power-speed combo is just too rich to pass up for guys like Rickie Weeks and Martin Prado, who are very good, but just don’t offer Kinsler’s robust fantasy excellence. Plus you can always dream that everything goes his (and your) way and he finally plays a full set of games. Just don’t bet on it.
Baseball By Paul 