Baseball By Paul

Other Divisions:

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL Central

I know I promised this last night, but I just passed out while watching the Oakland/Seattle game on my DVR.  It wasn’t necessarily a strenuous weekend as I pretty much only watched baseball, but there were a lot of long nights that just caught up to me.  This afternoon, I did some packing for impending move and then watched my Tigers lose to the white-hot Baltimore Orioles.  So here’s the final piece of the Season Preview.

COLORADO ROCKIES:

Record – 89-73

Improved player – Seth Smith (the batting average dipped a bit last year, but otherwise his year was essentially identical to 2009.  Look for a very nice season as a full-time player for the first time ever.)

Improved pitcher – Jason Hammel (I’ve written exhaustively about him.  I’m betting he finally improves with runners on base which, with his skills, will lead to a very nice season.)

Regression player – Carlos Gonzalez (a middling walk rate, astronomical BABIP and pretty high strikeout rate give some pause on CarGo’s follow up to his brilliant 2010 season.  He’s not some out-of-nowhere fluke so I don’t think he will fall off of the map, but a full season of his 2009 triple slash numbers with 25-28 HRs is what I think we will see.)

Regression pitcher – Ubaldo Jimenez (again, not a significant fall from grace or anything, but use 2009 as your guide for Jimenez, which would be a great season for the Rockies’ ace.)

Why they will win – …because the regression of their two superstars won’t be overwhelming and their rotation behind Jimenez is very underrated especially if Hammel improves as expected and Esmil Rogers performs up to his skill level.  I really like the lineup, though Todd Helton should likely be hitting 2^nd with Smith in the run producing 5-hole.  This is the last gasp for Chris Iannetta, but if even he doesn’t meet expectations, he is going to do much harm as a catcher in the 8^th spot.  Their bench is also very strong.

Why they might not win – …because despite how much talent there is in the rotation, it’s also rife with uncertainty.  We’ve still yet to see it for a full season Jorge de la Rosa, it will only be Jhoulys Chacin’s second season and Hammel & Rogers are upside guys.  Similarly, there is a lot of projection within the lineup, too.  Tulowitzki is very streaky, CarGo has done it for just a season and guys like Smith, Ian Stewart, Dexter Fowler, Jose Lopez and Chris Iannetta have only shown themselves in spurts throughout their career.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – It’s a deep division, but I like this team with their star power and up & comers, who they will rely on to win the division.  Even a regression from their two superstars in the lineup is still going to yield All-Star caliber play.   
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LOS ANGELES DODGERS:

Record – 88-74

Improved player – Matt Kemp (his “down” season last year was heavily overblown and due a lot to BABIP regression and a rise in strikeout rate.  The rest of his skills either held steady or went up including a career high in ISO which led to a career high 28 home runs.  But I’m not just seeing a rise back to his 2009 levels; he can have an MVP-type season if he remains focused.)

Improved pitcher – Chad Billingsley (another guy I’ve talked about a lot this preseason, so I won’t re-hash everything again.  I see 2008 or better out of Bills this year.)

Regression player – I’m not going to force one here as one just don’t jump out, probably because the team was such a disappointment last year.  Juan Uribe is a bit streaky, so I could his power dip a little, but it was his fourth 20-home run season so he is hardly a fluke.

Regression pitcher – Kenley Jansen (Jansen should have a very nice season as a setup man, but he’s not carrying a sub-1.00 ERA all year as he did in 27 innings last year.  If he doesn’t limit hits as well as he did last year [4.0 H/9], the walks could haunt him a bit, too.  I like him a ton for strikeouts, but the converted catcher is still learning to pitch so his ERA and WHIP might be a little higher than expected based on his first major league cup of coffee.)

Why they can win – …because their rotation is sick.  They are running four deep with Jon Garland on the shelf, but it is a very impressive 1-4 and it will be the strength of the club all year long.  The lineup isn’t great, but there is some star power within it and with the rotation backing them, they won’t need to mash the cover off of the ball to win.

Why they won’t win – …because the bullpen could fall apart if things go awry.  Jonathan Broxton is a wildcard after last year’s second half meltdown and if he’s not right, it could be trouble.  Hong-Chih Kuo is fantastic, but hardly a bastion of health.  Pair that with the potential of three dead spots in the lineup on any given night (Tony Gwynn Jr., Rod Barajas and Jamey Carroll) and they may not have enough firepower to overtake the Rockies.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – I love the rotation and once their lineup is whole, it will be improved, but they need to stay healthy because the reinforcements aren’t plentiful and the divorce messiness severely limits their ability to make moves in season, or so it would seem.  I have them just a game behind the Rockies so I like their chances to compete. 
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SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS:

Record – 88-74

Improved player – Brandon Belt (thrilled to see him win the job out of spring as I thought we’d have to wait a month or two to see him.  Here’s my scouting report on him from the Arizona Fall League.)

Improved pitcher – Hard to see anyone improving from their dream season last year that resulted in a World Series win.  The two studs, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, will remain very good, but we could see some regression elsewhere.

Regression player – Aubrey Huff (because he’s got an on/off trend going since 2005 making 2011 an off season.  Just kidding, I don’t really buy into those types of trends.  I don’t see a ton of regression out of him, but I’d be really surprised by another 138 OPS+.)

Regression pitcher – Jonathan Sanchez (with nearly identical skills from 2009, it is safe to say that Sanchez’s 3.07 ERA was pretty luck-fueled, specifically with BABIP and a well-above average LOB%.  He’s a 4.00 ERA pitcher barring a skills change.  And that’s fine for your #3 as he gets a ton of strikeouts and can be nearly unhittable on any given night.)

Why they can win – They are the reigning champs and added a key piece in Belt which goes toward addressing their main weakness.  If Pablo Sandoval’s newfound svelte figure allows him to get back to his 2009 level, they will be tough once again.

Why they might not win – Winner’s Hangover will rear its ugly head and open the door for some other teams in this division to ascend a bit past the Giants.  More than that, the extra innings of postseason on this relatively young staff could cost them a bit, especially because the division will be so tight.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – Almost nobody had this team winning the World Series last year and almost no one has them even repeating as division champs, but they can’t be dismissed altogether.  Now obviously I didn’t predict them to win, either, but a tie for second place and a game out of first is so tight that a key break or two for any of these three teams could be the difference. 
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SAN DIEGO PADRES:

Record – 76-86

Improved player – Brad Hawpe (ugly season last year, but I think it’s a blip and he will be back in the mid-20s for home runs this year… yes, even in PETCO.)

Improved pitcher – Tim Stauffer (very excited to see what he can do over a full season.)

Regression player – They had a host of new plays to an otherwise bad offense (outside of Adrian Gonzalez) from last year and the PETCO monster could eat them up a bit, but I don’t see anyone severely disappointing against expectations.

Regression pitcher – Hard to regress in that stadium, but I guess Mike Adams could see his ERA tick up even if he repeats those impeccable skills as it’s virtually impossible to maintain a sub-2.00 ERA, even in a reliever’s sample.

Why they can win – The pitching would just have to be excellent to the point that Stauffer, Aaron Harang and Clayton Richard all posted low-3.00 or sub-3.00 ERAs while the offense would need to surge to not only make up for the loss of Gonzalez, but also compete with their divisional foes who are set to get better, too.

Why they won’t win – It’s not just the loss of Gonzalez, but that’s most of it.  I like the additions they made to the offense, but I don’t think it is enough to remain competitive.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – The lineup is just not good enough as it’s filled with complementary and role player types lacking anything close to Gonzalez in the middle and that will be their undoing even if the rotation repeats 2010’s success. 
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ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS:

Record – 67-95

Improved player – Stephen Drew (the D’Backs have a brother in each of the big brother combos in baseball with Drew and also Justin Upton.  Unfortunately, both sets of brothers kind of underwhelm with their performance against what many believe their peaks can be given the incredible talent of all four.  I think Drew rises up and has a career year… once he gets off of the DL.)

Improved pitcher – David Hernandez (as a full-time bullpenner now, he is set to emerge as a true asset.  If the D’Backs wanted to flip J.J. Putz for pieces in the summer as he isn’t going to be a part of their next good team, Hernandez could definitely fill in capably.  In fact, I think he is a future closer whether later this year or in the years ahead.)

Regression player –

Regression pitcher – Daniel Hudson (don’t take this to mean that I don’t like him for 2011, but I was worried he would be overrated in fantasy circles based on his excellent stint with Arizona after the trade last year and that came to fruition in my drafts and auctions.  He’s just not going to be a sub-2.00 ERA stud with those skills.  Instead use Ian Kennedy’s 2010 as a guide for expectations of Hudson in ’11.)

Why they can win – I have them as one of the worst teams in the league and as such I just can’t compose a scenario in which they will rise up and win.  The rest of their rotation behind Hudson and Ian Kennedy would have to MASSIVELY over perform expectations and I just don’t see it.

Why they won’t win – See above.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – They’ve got some more down seasons in their future before things turn around, but there’s a solid youthful core to build and they need to use this deep draft to their advantage, too.  GM Kevin Towers has already done a lot to address last year’s horrible bullpen from last year and that alone should earn them a few extra wins. 

Other Divisions:

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL East
• NL West

CINCINNATI REDS:

Record – 92-70

Improved player – Jay Bruce (I’m on the increasingly large bandwagon looking for a major breakthrough season out of Bruce, although in fairness, I’ve been on for a while.)  Also really like Chris Heisey, he should eventually get the job from Jonny Gomes or at least get on the good side of the platoon.

Improved pitcher – Aroldis Chapman (putting a lot of faith in Dusty Baker to use him properly which would be 100+ innings allowing him to go two or more innings on occasion.  He should be Mike Marshall circa 1979.  He’s going to be in the rotation eventually [next year, not this] so stretch him out.)

Regression player – Joey Votto (he’s still going to be their rock in the middle of the lineup, but he’s a high-20s, low-30s home run hitter.  His home run/flyball rate was an absurd 25% which almost certainly isn’t happening again meaning he would need a legitimate skills change to be a high-30s home run hitter again.)

Regression pitcher – Francisco Cordero (this could lead to Chapman taking the closer’s role which would take him out of contention for 100+ IP so I’m torn on whether or not I want him to take the role from Coco.  They should move Nick Masset in and leave Chapman as the bridge since he can realistically be the 7^th and 8^th inning guy.)

Why they will win – …because they have remained essentially whole while their chief competitor lost their ace and their second-best hitter (though for a much shorter time than the ace) and the division’s winter winner has similar injury issues and is pretty flawed even when whole.

Why they might not win – …because it’s hard to count to St. Louis out even when they look completely down and out from the jump and though Cincinnati has excellent rotation depth, they are already using a good bit of it with Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto on the shelf.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – Until last week when I finally heard some pundits hopping back on the Cincy train, I thought they were being completely overlooked in favor of the offseason darling in Milwaukee and the now-underdog St. Louis Cardinals given the blow they were dealt early in Spring Training.  Alas, this has been my pick for this division from the jump and would be even if Adam Wainwright and Zack Greinke were completely healthy. 
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ST. LOUIS CARDINALS:

Record – 84-78

Improved player – Colby Rasmus (I originally had his growth being put toward making up for Wainwright’s loss, but now it has to cover the loss of Matt Holliday to an appendectomy and an uncertain timetable for return.)

Improved pitcher – Jake Westbrook (might enjoy his first sub-4.00 ERA season since 2004 in his first full season as a National Leaguer under the tutelage of Dave Duncan.)

Regression player – Can Gerald Laird or Ryan Theriot really get any worse?  There aren’t any candidates that jump out at me here, even for a disappointment against expectations as I can easily envision a scenario where Lance Berkman has a mini-revival.

Regression pitcher – Jaime Garcia (I actually love his profile, but he was due for some ERA regression even if the team remained intact from 2010, but switching of Brendan Ryan to Theriot at shortstop alone is going to cost Garcia dearly.  Even an improvement of skills [specifically his control] would only go toward mitigating Theriot’s horrid defense.  I would love to see him succeed in spite of Theriot, but with his heavy groundball lean, it’s just not likely.  He should still be good, just not unable to max out on his skills.)

Why they can win – …because Duncan has made magic out of a ragtag group before and this group at least still has a bona fide ace leading out and some legitimate skill in Garcia, Westbrook and Kyle McClellan.  If Berkman does surge back toward his mean and Holliday returns in a timely fashion, they have a strong heart of the order which of course includes the best player in baseball, too.

Why they won’t win – …because they have too many “ifs” compared to Cincinnati and they need a lot of things to go just right in order to dethrone the Reds.  I really don’t like their bullpen, either.  I’ve never been a fan of Ryan Franklin.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – This team isn’t afraid to make the big move to shore up their weaknesses, but I doubt they want to relinquish Shelby Miller, who projects as a #1, and he is their only big ticket trade chip right now.  They are already being stretched thin with two major injuries at the outset of the season and any more might bury them entirely. 
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MILWAUKEE BREWERS:

Record – 81-81

Improved player – Prince Fielder (he could have another 2009esque season combing all of his skills for a monstrous walk year.)

Improved pitcher – Chris Narveson (love this guy as a 5^th starter as he could cut as much as a full run off his 4.99 ERA from 2010 if he can push his LOB% up to league average while maintaining or improving the skills he showed last year.)

Regression player – Casey McGehee (I’m just not sold.  It’s a hunch.  I don’t have statistical support so I wouldn’t push that view on others, but I just don’t see him as a consistent above average player in the big leagues.)

Regression pitcher – Kameron Loe (he was great out of the bullpen for them last year thanks in large part to a 59% groundball rate and career-best 77% LOB%, but the addition of Yuniesky Betancourt is an unwelcomed sight for Loe [and probably the rest of the team, but it is like when Detroit had to take Dontrelle Willis to get Miguel Cabrera] and he will have trouble repeating that LOB% with poor shortstop behind him.)

Why they can win – …because they have an excellent 1-3 once Greinke returns and among the league’s better 4-5 starters.  Combine that with some true star power in the lineup led by Fielder and Ryan Braun and supplemented by Corey Hart (when he turns) and Rickie Weeks.

Why they won’t win – …because the rotation and three or four strong hitters isn’t enough to win this tough division.  The team defense top to bottom is bad which will slice into the effectiveness of that rotation.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – I applaud the Greinke and Shaun Marcum trades,  but compared to their preseason expectations, Milwaukee will end the season as one of the biggest disappointments of 2011.  Depending on how the first few months pan out, Fielder could be gone by the trade deadline. 
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CHICAGO CUBS:

Record – 80-82

Improved player – Carlos Pena (he might only hit .235, but that would be a major improvement from his .196 of 2010 while his home run total should be back in the mid-to-upper 30s with ease.)

Improved pitcher – Randy Wells (he didn’t deserve his 3.05 ERA in 2009 as his skills were closer to a 3.80-4.00 ERA, but he didn’t deserve to be saddled with a 4.26 ERA last year with nearly identical skills, either.  Look for him to shave a quarter of a run or more off of his ERA in ’11.)

Regression player – With a lineup as old as theirs, a couple guys are likely to tick down, but I don’t see anyone drastically underperforming.

Regression pitcher – Matt Garza (I want to be wrong about this, but I’m worried about Garza in Wrigley Field.  He’s got ridiculous talent and the stuff to be excellent, but the mind is lagging behind at this point.)

Why they can win – I really like their rotation even if Garza does dip a bit plus the veteran-laden lineup has the skills to be very successful if the stars aligned properly.  Add in that Carlos Marmol is arguably the best closer in the National League, too.

Why they won’t win – …because it is unlikely that all of the veterans will click together which could make run scoring difficult for stretches.  The lead up to Marmol is shaky, too, with unknowns and also-rans.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – Some have stepped out on a limb and projected this team to win the division.  I like them to win a handful more games than they did last year, but I’m not sure they have the bullets to overcome the competition in this division.  
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PITTSBURGH PIRATES:

Record – 66-96

Improved player – Jose Tabata (only 22 years old, he will add some power and speed in his second season, though he is still likely a year or two away from truly exploding.)

Improved pitcher – James McDonald (I’ve been thrilled to see so many hop on the McDonald bandwagon this offseason.  If you’ve been coming here for any amount of time, you know how much I like this kid and I think we will see a nice step forward in 2011.)  Also watch out for Charlie Morton.  I’m not kidding.  Monitor him in your NL-Only league and you could have a gem on your hands.

Regression player – Pedro Alvarez (maybe not a regression per se, he only played 95 games last year, but I think he might disappoint against lofty expectations for ’11.  He has huge contact issues that aren’t likely to disappear in a single offseason so while some decent power should be there, it might come with a sub-.250 batting average.)

Regression pitcher – Go look at their staff from last year, how could anyone really regress?  That wouldn’t even be fair.  That would just be a cruel joke by the baseball gods.

Why they can win – Truth be told, they can’t because they just don’t have the pitching, but this young lineup is exciting and will keep them in more games this year.

Why they won’t win – Again, because their pitching just doesn’t stack up at all.  I think they’ve got something with McDonald for sure.  And Morton could become a useful piece, but 4/5ths (or at least 3/5ths) of their next viable rotation is still in the minor leagues or not yet drafted.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – A 66-win season is hardly anything to write home about, but it’s a 9-win improvement from last year, which is pretty significant.  I’ve been saying for a few years that I love what the Neal Huntington regime is doing with this club and others are starting to see it, too, as the Pirates are becoming a chic darling this season.  I mentioned back in February that I wanted to see them take Gerritt Cole or Matt Purke (before Purke dipped and Cole surged) over Anthony Rendon and as we get closer to the draft, it appears as though Cole is the frontrunner for that #1 overall pick. 
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HOUSTON ASTROS:

Record – 63-99

Improved player – Nobody.  The only good parts of their lineup are stable veterans (Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee) highly unlikely to improve and the rest is fodder.  Sorry, Brett Wallace.

Improved pitcher – Bud Norris (I’ll defer to my Favorite Pitchers piece where I profiled Norris a few weeks ago.)

Regression player – Probably one of those veterans I mentioned earlier, which would be especially unfortunate for this already-down team.)

Regression pitcher – Wilton Lopez (Brandon Lyon is a terrible closer and there are going to be a lot of days like Opening Day for him, but I’m not sold that Lopez is the answer.  His nearly invisible walk rate last year [0.7 BB/9] is unlikely to hold another year.  He has great control throughout his minor league control, but not that good.  Meanwhile, his underwhelming strikeout rate for a reliever [6.7 K/9] leaves him an unappealing fit for the closer’s role.)

Why they can win – They can’t.  They just can’t.  Their pitching, specifically the top three of their rotation, is better than Pittsburgh’s, but Pittsburgh has an overwhelming advantage in every other facet of the game.

Why they won’t win – Mainly because they aren’t a good team and unfortunately, there isn’t much light at the end of the tunnel, either.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – Until they realize that the team they have right now is nowhere near winning and actually blow it up (move Wandy, Myers, Lyon, Lopez [he’s 27] and Lee) and stopping signing shlubs like Bill Hall or trading viable parts for even bigger shlubs like Clint Barmes, then they are destined to remain a bottom feeder for years to come.  They don’t realize it, though and a microcosm of that is how they handled the Myers situation last year.  They took a gamble on him and paid off in spades so they should have moved him midseason for parts to re-stock their garbage farm system, instead they sign him to a 3-year deal for $28 million dollars.  That’s the Houston way, also referred to as the stupid way.

Other Divisions:

• AL East
• AL Central
• AL West
• NL Central
• NL West

I’ve been taking my sweet time with these, but I will have them completed on Sunday.  Since it was kind of an Opening Weekend with this new format, I didn’t mind stretching them out Thursday through Sunday.  I’ll have some thoughts on the first set of games tomorrow evening as well.  Until then, follow me on Twitter for instant thoughts as I’m watching a TON of baseball all weekend.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES:

Record – 93-69

Improved player – Jimmy Rollins (his OPS has been in a free-fall since his 2007 MVP, but I think he’s got at least one more .800 OPS in him.)

Improved pitcher – Cole Hamels (he’s got Cy Young stuff.  Hard to improve on the season he had last year, but a Cy Young would do it.)

Regression player – Ryan Howard (I don’t think the power drop was a fluke and while he can back into an .800 OPS season, he is supposed to be putting up .900 OPS seasons so an .825-.850 mark would be a disappointment.)

Regression pitcher – Roy Oswalt (he will have a good season, but look for an ERA around 3.20-3.45 as opposed to the 2.76 he posted for the season or the insane 1.74 he posted after the trade to Philly.)

Why they will win – …because they have one of the best rotations assembled in baseball history.  The offense isn’t great especially with the uncertainty around Chase Utley, but that didn’t stop San Francisco with a lesser rotation and lesser lineup last year.

Why they might not win – …because now there is a lot of uncertainty in the bullpen, too and they don’t have the budget to fix the lineup or bullpen in-season, let alone both.  Outside of their own question marks, the competition is going to be fierce from Atlanta for sure and possibly even Florida.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – That rotation is just downright insane and the lineup does have three upper tier players even without Utley (Rollins, Howard and Shane Victorino) plus another pair of second tier guys with Placido Polanco and Carlos Ruiz so while they aren’t without questions, they remain a frontrunner for the division and the league.

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ATLANTA BRAVES:

Record – 92-70

Improved player – Brian McCann (he has kinda fallen into a groove with four similar seasons from a runs scored, home runs and runs driven in aspect, but the OPS has dipped each of the last two years from .896 in 2008; I think he surges back up over .875 in 2011.)

Improved pitcher – Tommy Hanson (he’s among my favorites for ’11, big season forthcoming.)

Regression player – Dan Uggla (there was no change in his skills leading to his .287 average meaning it was almost certainly BABIP-fueled luck [career-high .330 BABIP], so I think we’ll see it come back down, but 30 HR-90 RBI is still in order.)

Regression pitcher – Tim Hudson (I love Huddy, but those skills don’t yield a sub-3.00 ERA two years in a row with some incredible luck.  His BABIP and LOB rates well above league average last year and we’re unlikely to see that again, especially with Uggla fielding plenty of groundballs at second.)

Why they can win – …because their bullpen and lineup are both better than Philadelphia’s and while the rotation doesn’t quite stack up (nobody’s does), it is still very strong.  They need to wise up and swap Jason Heyward and Chipper Jones in the lineup or they’ll hurt their own chances of winning.

Why they won’t win – …because they probably won’t move Heyward to third and Jones to sixth in the lineup and that could be enough to be the margin that Philly wins by, after all I have the two just a game apart.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – This is a damn good team with reinforcements nearby in AAA and plenty of assets to trade if they need to go that route to plug holes during the season.  I still give the edge to that incredible rotation in Philly, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they flip-flopped spots by season’s end.

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FLORIDA MARLINS:

Record – 86-76

Improved player – Logan Morrison (he only hit 2 home runs in his 62 major league games last year and it would’ve paced out to just 8, but I think we’ll see 13-16 this year.)

Improved pitcher – Ricky Nolasco (I’ll keep beating the “Nolasco has to improve with those skills” drum for a third straight year.)

Regression player – John Buck (after a career year in 118 games, Buck earned a fat contract with the Marlins, but they are going to be disappointed when he hits mid-teens home runs with a .240ish average.)  Also watch out for Mike Stanton.  I love the kid and want to be wrong, but he could struggle mightily and underperform expectations if he doesn’t get a bit more selective at the dish and start making a lot more contact.

Regression pitcher – Edward Mujica (another offseason acquisition that might not quite be what the Marlins are expecting as he is going to miss PETCO Park.  He needed to PETCO to protect his HR/9 to a still-ugly 1.8, imagine what it’s going to be without half of his games there.)

Why they can win – …because they remain sneaky good with a potent lineup of youngsters supplemented by solid “glue” veterans (like Buck and Omar Infante) meanwhile if Nolasco plays up to his skill and Javier Vazquez improves as planned now out of NY, they have a great rotation, too.

Why they won’t win – …because the competition is too tough.  It’s more about Philly and Atlanta being too good than it is about Florida not being good enough, the Marlins would contend in a lot of other divisions, but the one they are a part of is a bit too tough for this youth-laden ballclub.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – There are some bona fide stars on this team as well as some in the making, but they would all need to take a step forward together for this team to compete with two of the best teams in the National League.  This is a team on the rise. 

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WASHINGTON NATIONALS:

Record – 74-88

Improved player – The Middle Infield (the club is expecting big things out of their double-play combo as Ian Desmond enters his second full season and Danny Espinosa begins his first.  Both have strong power-speed skills with strikeouts being their big problem right now.  At 25 and 24, respectively, there is time to improve, but it beings now.)

Improved pitcher – Jordan Zimmermann (I love the skills he’s displayed in his 122 major league innings as the 4.71 ERA and 1.35 WHIP are a bit misleading.  This guy has strong #2/soft ace potential.)  Also keep an eye on Ross Detwiler.  He’s in the minors right now, but I just have a feeling he can do something at the big league level.

Regression player – None.  This is a team on the come and no one in their lineup really over-performed.

Regression pitcher – Livan Hernandez (Houdini would be learning from Livan if he were still alive.)

Why they can win – Without Stephen Strasburg, it’s really hard to put together a scenario where they can seriously contend.  Even with him it’d be tough, but at least they would have two strong starts atop the rotation.  As it stands, it’s Zimm and little else.

Why they won’t win – Again, because of that pitching, or complete and utter lack thereof.  It will be another long season, but there will be some incremental growth with the future looking brighter each year.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – It may not seem all that great, but this prediction is a five win improvement from 2010 despite the loss of Strasburg.  They are putting something together here and it will be nice to see their 1-2 together when Zimmermann and Strasburg are healthy together. 

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NEW YORK METS:

Record – 70-92

Improved player – Jose Reyes (look for a vintage [2006-2008] Reyes season as he is back to 100% health and still in the midst of his prime.)

Improved pitcher – Jonathon Niese (the skills are in place for a sub-4.00 ERA season and if he improves the middling walk rate, he could push down near 3.50 or better.)

Regression player – No one really screams regression or even significant disappointment to me.  Ike Davis might slide a bit his second time around the league, but I could see him matching ’10 or even a tick better, too.

Regression pitcher – R.A. Dickey (it has to be Dickey.  You have to love the story and success he enjoyed last year, but knuckleballs are just too uncertain to bet on another sub-3.00 ERA even if the skills are intact.  Just look at the variation in Tim Wakefield’s ERA year-to-year and he’s this era’s knuckleball master.)

Why they can win – Even though I project them worse than Washington, there is a dream, everything-goes-right scenario in which they could go crazy and compete.  Niese and Mike Pelfrey jump forward, Dickey maintain while Chris Young and Chris Capuano battle for Comeback Player of the Year with excellent seasons while the offense is rejuvenated by Carlos Beltran playing 145 games and Eric Karabell prediction fulfilling itself as Brad Emaus wins Rookie of the Year.

Why they won’t win – …because very little of the above is likely to happen, except Niese of course because I predicted that!

Conclusion/Bottom Line – It’s going to be really ugly in year 1 of the Alderson Era, but he and his regime understand it is part of the process.  I’m bullish on this team long-term with him at the helm, but 2011 is going to be rough for this veteran-laden ballclub outside of star bright spots Reyes and David Wright.

Other Divisions:

• AL East
• AL Central
• NL East
• NL Central
• NL West

OAKLAND ATHLETICS:

Record – 87-76*(*tiebreaker w/LAA)

Improved player – Josh Willingham (had a brilliant first half in ’10 before injuries ruined the season; looking for the ~30 HR power and .400 OBP skill again in ’11.)

Improved pitcher – Brett Anderson (a playing time breakout as Anderson offers nearly 200 innings of the excellent work we saw for 112 innings last year.)

Regression player – David DeJesus (if only slightly off the pace of his ’10 OPS+ of 127, but that will be mitigated by the fact that he will play more than 91 games.)

Regression pitcher – Trevor Cahill (like Clay Buchholz of Boston, this is obvious, but I’m not projecting the complete drop off that many seem to believe is coming.  He has devastating stuff, good enough to get Ks, but if he wants to focus on groundballs, then he needs to trim the walk rate significantly to get a 2.0+ K/BB.  He had a great K rate in the minors, so don’t be surprised starts adding Ks in 2011.)

Why they will win – …because they have amazing pitching staff ace to closer and everything in between.  There is upside, there is proven and there are reinforcements in case things go awry.  Quality pitching isn’t especially new in Oakland, but they have supplemented it with solid hitting.  Not great hitting, but the power additions of Hideki Matsui and Willingham are underrated especially because now they don’t need to rely on Daric Barton for power he doesn’t have, he can sit in the 2-hole and just get on base 40% of the time.

Why they might not win – …because their offense is equal parts likely to breakout or likely to breakdown.  There is a lot of injury risk tied up in their starting nine and their primary backups aren’t bastions of health, either.  Their cross-town rivals showed that excellent pitching can mask a lot of hitting deficiencies, but the Giants eventually added a bona fide star to the middle of their lineup in Buster Posey while Oakland doesn’t have that guy on the way.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – The combination of this excellent staff with the upside of their offense assuming health might even be worth more than the five win (a sixth with the tiebreaker) jump I gave them over last year, but I will play it conservatively because this is hardly the first time that Oakland has been a preseason darling.

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LOS ANGELES ANGELS:

Record – 86-77* (*tiebreaker w/OAK)

Improved player – Bobby Abreu (he fell below .800 OPS for the first time since 1997 when he played 59 games for Houston.  His batting average returns and he remains an OBP force in the middle of that lineup.)

Improved pitcher – Dan Haren (already showed improvement after the trade to LA; he’ll have a full season around where his 94-inning debut with the Angels was: 2.90-3.15 ERA, 1.15-1.20 WHIP.)

Regression player – Vernon Wells (he will still be a useful piece, but around 25 home runs as opposed to the 31 outburst from last year.)

Regression pitcher – Fernando Rodney (stats might not recede, but a similar season will lose him the closer’s job pretty quickly opening it up for rookie Jordan Walden, who I love this year.)

Why they can win – They have a strong rotation even with Scott Kazmir being a part of it along with a solid bullpen in the non-Rodney division.  The lineup isn’t excellent, but it won’t need to be in that division and I think it is being underrated as a whole because it is a lot of unsexy veterans.  I’m obviously projecting a relatively quick return from Kendrys Morales here, too.

Why they won’t win – I have them losing a game 163 to Oakland which is essentially crapshoot, but why they might not even contend would be a mass regression from the veterans and a lack of improving youngsters to make up the difference.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – The team is being overlooked despite one of the best 1-2 punches in all of baseball and a lineup filled with capable veterans.  They aren’t without flaws, but so are the other two contenders in this division.

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TEXAS RANGERS:

Record – 85-77

Improved player – Elvis Andrus (acquitted himself well throughout the minors as a teenager all four seasons so I’m not ready to pigeonhole him as an all glove, no hit shortstop because of a weak sophomore campaign.)

Improved pitcher – Derek Holland (look for a really nice debut season as a starter for Holland, though it won’t be enough to make up for the loss of Cliff Lee and regression of other starters.)

Regression player – Josh Hamilton (the obvious pick, but the reigning AL MVP isn’t hitting .359 again.)

Regression pitcher – C.J. Wilson (if he doesn’t markedly improve his control, he will have a very hard time posting another 3.35 ERA.)

Why they can win – Holland and Matt Harrison emerge and Brandon Webb returns for 150 innings to absorb Lee’s departure and any Wilson/Colby Lewis regression while the offense gets better thanks to complete seasons from Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz Hamilton and newly-added Mike Napoli.

Why they won’t win – …because only Holland is likely to emerge while and the bullpen leading to Neftali Feliz is shaky, especially after Alexei Ogando inexplicably won a spot.  Meanwhile their lineup is laced with consistent injury risk.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – Everything went right and it is unlikely to happen again while their chief competitors improved themselves making a repeat difficult.  I like this ballclub and it’s not unreasonable to project a scenario where they win again, but I like the pitching of LA and Oakland more.

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SEATTLE MARINERS:

Record – 63-99

Improved player – Justin Smoak (I believed in him prior to last year and I’m not going to let 100 games completely dissuade me, though the new home park is an unfortunate development to his offensive potential.)

Improved pitcher – Erik Bedard (the skill is there and it’s elite, but it’s all about getting on the field consistently.  After back-to-back 15-start seasons, I think combines them for 30 big ones in ’11.)

Regression player – Can anyone really get any worse than they were last year?

Regression pitcher – Jason Vargas (because those skills don’t deserve a sub-4.00 ERA regardless of the home park and defense.)

Why they can win – …because a perfect world scenario includes rookie Michael Pineda having an amazing debut and combining with Felix and Bedard for a great top three taking pressure off of the offense which should improve significantly on regression alone after last year’s historically bad season.

Why they won’t win – …because their offense is still bad and Bedard staying healthy and Pineda immediately excelling would be major upsets.

Conclusion/Bottom Line – The offense just can’t be that bad again this year, but it won’t matter much because even at its peak, it’s bad, but the rotation should offer a glimmer of hope and maybe older parts like Milton Bradley and Jack Cust shine and can be traded for useful parts by July.