Archive for June 10th, 2011

Friday: 06.10.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 10 The Weekend

A quick look at the weekend pickups.

SATURDAY:

John Danks (CHW v. OAK) – His ownerships rates have plummeted and understandably given the depth of pitching and how mightily he was struggling, but he was really sharp in his last outing albeit against the Mariners.  The Athletics offense is no better so there is no reason he can’t perhaps get on a run.

James McDonald (PIT v. NYM) – While his season ERA is near 5.00, he has been strong over his last eight starts allowing more than three runs just once posting a 2.82 ERA with an 8.2 K/9 rate in that span.  Plus, he is much better at home than the road so I see him staying strong against the Mets.

SUNDAY:

Rick Porcello (DET v. SEA) – Only the Red Sox have gotten to him for more than two runs since April 15th.  He has a 2.60 ERA in 55 innings over that span along with a 6-1 record.  He comes with a modest strikeout rate so if that’s your need, he’s not for you.  If you want quality innings and a legitimate shot at some wins, then Porcello can help.

Tim Stauffer (SD v. WAS) – Stauffer’s success this year isn’t a surprised, he was one of my favorite sleepers coming into the season, but his strong 7.3 K/9 rate is surprising.  I was expecting a decent mid-6.0 rate with tons of groundballs and utilization of his home ballpark.  So he has exceeded expectations in that respect.  One area he has kind of underwhelmed has been taking advantage of Petco Park.  His ERA split is almost equal: 3.54 home, 3.62 road.  But the skills are strong regardless of venue and it’s kind surprising that he’s owned in less than 6% of ESPN leagues.

Results and Week 11 picks on Sunday.

Friday: 06.10.2011

SP List: Notable Exclusions

On yesterday’s updated Starting Pitcher List for the rest of the season, you have may have noticed some names weren’t included that you might have otherwise expected on a list running 116 deep.  Here are those names along with some information on why I didn’t include them.

Dustin Moseley (SD) – He doesn’t do anything especially well.  He isn’t a strikeout guy, he isn’t an elite control guy and he doesn’t use Petco Park to his advantage (3.70 ERA; 2.52 road ERA).  I just don’t see how he can keep his 3.16 ERA all year and I’m not going to hold onto his sub-5.0 K/9 and try to find out.

Josh Collmenter (ARI) – I can’t find anyone who believes in his stuff.  He is succeeding (quite a bit, in fact) off of deception and guile at this point with his windmill delivery.  He at least does something really well, unlike Moseley, he doesn’t walk anybody (1.0 BB/9).  Alas, it is still a small sample and it would be a minor miracle for him to continue at this clip or anything like it.

Clayton Mortensen (COL) – Even if he hadn’t just lost his job, his 1.1 K/BB would’ve been enough to keep him far away from the list.

Tyler Chatwood (LAA) – Chatwood is like, “1.1 K/BB, huh?  Overachiever.”  He is toting a jaw-dropping 0.97 mark in 71 innings of work.  How his ERA is 3.79 and not 9.73 is beyond me.

John Lannan (WAS) – He is one of the strikeout “aces” on this list at 5.4 K/9.  That is about the best that can be said for him right now.  His strikeout rate has risen yearly since 2009, but so has his walk rate.  The groundball rate is very strong, but he will do more harm than good the rest of the way.

Jason Marquis (WAS) – When he walked five in 34 innings during April, he had some people fooled.  Industry people, even.  They fell for the ol’ “since it’s our only sample it must mean something” routine.  I won’t name names because we all make mistakes, but I thought we were all beyond falling for his tricks (although, he definitely pulled a quarter out of my ear).  Since April Marquis has walked 15 in 41 innings which yields passable 3.3 BB/9, but not when it’s paired just 18 strikeouts.  Gimme back my quarter and leave me alone, Jason.

Carlos Villanueva (TOR) – He is the true strikeout ace on this list at 6.8 K/9, but that includes his relief work which accounts for more than half of his innings this year (24 to 22).  His K rate is 5.6 as a starter against 7.8 out of the bullpen.  His ERA as a starter should be better than the 4.84 it is now based on the skills he has displayed, but he is still at best a borderline guy.  Don’t be fooled by the composite numbers.