Archive for May 11th, 2012

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Friday: 05.11.2012

Trolling the Wire – Weekend Edition

Here are the weekend selections:

SATURDAY

none

SUNDAY

Jeff Samardzija (CHC) – He’s been excellent this year without question.  I was skeptical when he debuted with a gem, felt justified for that skepticism when he followed it up with a pair of 5 ER outings, but now can’t help but be impressed by his last three outings during which he has yielded just 2 ER in 21 innings.  He also has 23 strikeouts in those three starts with a pair of wins.  (@ MIL)

A.J. Burnett (PIT) – He followed up his disastrous outing against the Cardinals with eight strong (2 ER) striking out 10 and walking just one.  He was left out to dry in that meltdown, but I don’t think it completely ruins his season.  Not only can be useful for your fantasy team the rest of the way, but it isn’t a stretch to suggest he finishes the season with a sub-4.00 ERA.  Let’s say he’ll go about 175 innings this season after missing a pair starts at the outset.  He’d only need to be a 3.64 ERA pitcher in his remaining 151 innings to finish with a 3.96 ERA for the season.  He’ll be fine.  (vs. HOU)

Edwin Jackson (WAS) – If you participated in Trolling last year, then you aren’t surprised to see Jackson here.  He was the most often recommended spot starter here last year.  To read/hear some write/speak about him, I can’t help but find him underrated.  You would think he has had a 4.50 ERA in the last three years as opposed to two sub-3.80 seasons along with a 4.47 one.  And in that latter one, he surged late posting a 3.24 ERA in 11 starts with the White Sox.  This year he has his best peripherals ever with a 7.9 K/9 and a 2.1 BB/9 which is a major improvement over anything he has ever done.  (@ CIN)

Jonathon Niese (NYM) – A pair of 4 BB starts bookend his 6 outings thus far raising his walk rate, but otherwise his peripherals are still sharp while his xFIP continues to suggest his ERA should be lower.  A trip into the cavernous Marlins Stadium seems like a nice remedy to get back on track after an OK start in Philly.

 

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Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Roster Management, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Stats, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Friday: 05.11.2012

BP Work This Week

A quick look at my work available over at Baseball Prospectus this week.

  • First up was the Starting Pitcher Value Picks piece in which I looked at Felipe Paulino, who threw alright on Friday night against the White Sox.  I still like him as at least a stream option in all formats if not a full-time player.  I was surprised to learn that Jeff Samardzija was so available across the three primary outlets.  He is only out there in 18% of CBS leagues, but even that was surprising while his availability in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues ranged from 53-60%.

 

  • Next up was the Weekly Planner piece which takes a look at the all the two-start pitchers for next week and decides who you should go with and who you should probably avoid.  There are several aces going and falling in the Auto-Start category, but there are also a ton of Start options as well.  That should allow you find an adequate arm to fill in for Johnny Cueto who I have as merely a Consider this week with trips into Atlanta and the Bronx on his docket.  I’ve long been a fan of Cueto, but I’m also realistic and he is likely going to start his path to regression this upcoming week.

 

  • And finally, episode 3 came out for the The Towers of Power Fantasy Hour, a BP Fantasy Podcast.  We discussed stars playing like stars and how to handle them, cover a bunch of unexpectedly hot pitchers and whether or not we believe in them as well as read plenty of your emails.  Send your emails to fantasyhour@baseballprospectus.com.  We record on Thursdays.  We also have a Facebook Group that you should definitely join.

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