Archive for January, 2013

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Friday: 01.18.2013

Top 10 Starting Pitchers Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will continue the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will air both the relief and starting pitcher shows on Friday evening. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air.

This is not a fantasy list!!

(Ed. note: I swore my DVR said the reliever episode was first which is why I posted that list first. Sorry about that!)

This list was even harder than the relievers one as I just want to include so many guys. To spare you, the reader, I’m only going to include a few of honorable mentions.

Roy Halladay (PHI) – Since it is “right now”, I couldn’t justify his inclusion coming off of an injury-marred season that was easily his worst since 2004. From a fantasy angle (which isn’t entirely relevant in this NON FANTASY list) I still think he’s being criminally underrated early on in mock drafts and rankings I’ve seen, but he’s not a top 10 guy right now.

C.C. Sabathia (NYY) – This has a lot more to do with how deep the top of the starting pitcher pool is than anything Sabathia hasn’t done. There are no obviously flaws in his games, he’s absolutely amazing, but there are only 10 spots, so he’s on the outside.

Yu Darvish (TEX) – I couldn’t just play favorites and put Darvish in ahead of more deserving candidates. He took a while to get his feet under him last year and while I think he will show his top 10 worthiness this year, this list is about right now as opposed to projection. So it is with great pain that I leave Darvish out.

Also: Adam Wainwright (he was great coming off of TJ, but not great enough to include just yet.)

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MLBNtopSP

THE LIST

10. Matt Cain (SF) – See what I mean? Leaving Cain off would’ve felt silly yet that’s what I would have to do to get Darvish included. Track record doesn’t weigh heavily on a “right now” list, but even just the 2012 track record favors Cain in terms of pure results. He’s awesome and he’s getting better each year. He doesn’t post the gaudy strikeout totals I drool over, but he’s proven you can be great with just a solid 20ish percent rate.

9. Gio Gonzalez (WAS) – If you think this rating is crazy, you haven’t watched him pitch enough. He keeps adding to his strikeout rate going from 20 percent in 2010 to an NL-best 25 percent last year. Meanwhile he made his first real dent in his walk rate last year dropping it a full percentage point to nine, which isn’t great, but easier to overlook when a quarter of the guys you face are walking back to the dugout after three strikes.

8. R.A. Dickey (TOR) – Absurd. Just completely absurd. His 2012 season was so freaking incredible. Seemingly out of nowhere, he ups his strikeout rate from 15.3 to 24.8 percent while actually incrementally improving his walk rate from 6.2 to 5.8 percent. Just bananas. He deservingly won the NL Cy Young and now gets to peddle his wares in the AL East with Toronto. I basically had Dickey and the next two guys neck and neck so I used track record as the tiebreaker. I’d still take these next two over him in a one-game situation.

7. Cole Hamels (PH) – When you factor out how much I’m responsible for myself, Hamels just doesn’t get enough love as an ace-level pitcher. Part of it is that he’s obscured by his rotation mates, but part of it is just that I think some fail to recognize how great he’s been the last three years. He had the 8th-best strikeout rate (24.9 percent) in the majors last year among qualified starters and only Dickey bested his 6.0 percent walk rate among those eight and it was by 0.1 percent.

6. Cliff Lee (PHI) – How did he win six games and fan 207 batters last year? I know wins and strikeouts don’t exactly go together, but the point is that he was just too good to be saddled with such a lame record (6-9). He walked a laughable 28 guys in all last year, too. His 3.3 percent walk rate was baseball’s best by nearly a full percent over Bronson Arroyo and Joe Blanton (4.2) and then of course there is the fact that he was also light years better than them in every other skill-based metric.

5. Felix Hernandez (SEA) – The top five were pretty easy for me in terms of who belonged in it. You can quibble over the order, but the group should be pretty consistent among anyone making such a list. Listing Felix fifth just doesn’t feel right, but I don’t see how I could get him any higher even as he continues to dominate. A career-best six percent walk rate accompanied fifth straight spike in strikeout rate, though just a small bit from 23 percent in 2011 to 23.8 last year. Oh, and he threw a perfect game.

4. Stephen Strasburg (WAS) – There is little doubt in my mind that he could’ve gone well past his innings limit without issue, but the Nats painted themselves into a corner. In the 159 innings he did throw, he was simply amazing. If he had qualified (requires 162 innings), his 30.2 percent strikeout rate would’ve topped Max Scherzer’s gaudy 29.4 mark for baseball’s best. He has three excellent pitches that he uses to devastate hitters. His changeup might be the best of the bunch generating a ridiculous 29 percent swing-and-miss rate. It was accountable 53 percent of his 197 strikeouts, too.

3. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – As I mentioned earlier, I thought Dickey was a deserving Cy Young winner, but he wasn’t the only deserving candidate. Kershaw was right there and you can probably argue that wins and a great story are the only things that cost Kershaw a repeat. He led baseball in ERA for a second straight season, posted the same 6.7 H/9 mark which not only led the NL like it did in 2011, but all of baseball this time, and he led the NL in WHIP for the second straight season 1.02. His 14-9 record plus not being a knuckleball journeyman likely did him in.

2. David Price (TB) – Price showed flashes of greatness in 2010, though his 2.72 ERA was probably a bit more favorable than his numbers seemed to “deserve”. Then in 2011, he went the other way improving his underlying numbers and likely should’ve ended up with a result better than his 3.49 ERA. He finally found the right potion in 2012 repeating his 2011 base skills (24% Ks, 7% BBs) while adding a crapton of groundballs (moving 44 to 53% groundball rate) and sharpening up with runners on (moving from 73 to 81%, second to only Jeremy Hellickson at 83%) to turn in a Cy Young performance. His curveball was the driving force yielding a meager 368 OPS and generating 44 percent of his 205 strikeouts.

1. Justin Verlander (DET) – Verlander had an amazing follow up campaign to his Cy Young/MVP season in 2011 and like Kershaw, he had a very strong case for a repeat at Cy Young, but it wasn’t to be for him. He lost out by four points (whereas Dickey inexplicably crushed Kershaw, whose repeat case was probably stronger than JV’s). He again paced the entire league in innings and total strikeouts, but dropped seven wins off that flashy 24 count from last year dropping below the famed 20-mark.

By the way, Verlander is an instructive case for why I’m referencing strikeout percentage a lot more these days. He had an 8.96 K/9 in 2011 and 9.03 K/9 last year so there’ll be plenty of analysis stating that “he even raised his strikeouts!!!”, but he didn’t actually do that. He fanned 25.8 percent of batters in his dream season of 2011, compared to a flat 25 percent last year. Small difference, but important nonetheless.

Despite not winning any end of season awards, I doubt you will get much argument on Verlander as the best pitcher in the game, though the latest chic thing to do is to project a 2013 injury for him based on these recent workloads. It’s the most risk-less “bold” prediction you can make, so don’t fall into the trap of doing so to appear ballsy. Predicting any pitcher to get hurt is like guessing that Lindsay Lohan will be arrested soon. Both are ticking time bombs. Always.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, MLB Network, Player Focus, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Top 10 | 4 Comments »

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Friday: 01.18.2013

Top 10 Relief Pitchers Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will continue the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will air both the relief and starting pitcher shows on Friday evening. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air.

This is not a fantasy list!!

My guess is that MLBN will rely a bit too heavily on saves here and lean toward closers, but I’m going for the best relievers regardless of role. This was pretty tough because I could’ve made a legitimate case for quite a few guys who didn’t wind up on my 10. In fact, my honorable mention list could’ve run 10-15 deep. Instead, here are just a few.

Sean Marshall (CIN) – Since these lists stress the “Right Now” aspect, considering Marshall’s track record too heavily would go against the conceit of the lists. And since he is coming off of his worst year against righties (750 OPS), he lost out on a spot. He obliterates lefties (410 OPS) and has plenty of previous success against righties to avoid the LOOGY status, but his rough start likely cost him a spot here. He had a 4.15 ERA in 17.3 innings through May, but then just a 1.85 ERA the rest of the way in 43.7 innings.

Jonathan Papelbon (PHI) – He was hardly bad in 2012, but some chinks in the armor did pop up (namely the home runs and the margins are so thin here that any small ding could cost you a spot on the list. I will state clearly that this has nothing to do with my disdain for Papelbon. I want to make the best list possible and I ended choosing my #10 over Papelbon after a couple flips back-and-forth between the two.

Jake McGee (TB) – A lefty who throws 96? How the hell is that fair? To say he dominated right-handers last year is a gross understatement. They managed a .098/.157/.134 line–that’s a 291 OPS for those keeping score–all while striking out 36 percent of the time. With these honorable mentions, there really aren’t reasons why they didn’t make the list. The top 10 was just so rich that the runoff seems entirely snubbed given how deserving they are on their own merits.

Tyler Clippard (WAS) – Remember when he stranded 96 percent of runners in 2011? So sick. He’s still awesome, just not quite top 10 awesome. Hell, neither are his bullpen mates, Drew Storen and Rafael Soriano.

Darren O’Day (BAL) – If we were doing A-Rod’s list, he might be number one. O’Day was 5th in win probability added for relievers last year while teammate Jim Johnson was tops by a good margin. O’Day just missed and Johnson wasn’t given much consideration ranking around 20 or so. It’s probably my whorishness for strikeouts. Sorry, Jimmy-J.

Sorry as well to: Jason Grilli (homers), Rafael Betancourt (drop in Ks), Al Alburquerque (innings), Kelvin Herrera (Ks didn’t stack up), Ernesto Frieri (walks), and Joel Peralta (homers).

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MLBNtopRP

THE LIST

10. David Hernandez (ARI) – The D’Backs better not even consider giving the 8th inning to Heath Bell setting up J.J. Putz as Hernandez handled it masterfully last year and continues to get better each year. He is a flyball pitcher, but maintains a 0.5 HR/9 because 15 percent of his flyball stays in the infield. In the mortal division (non-Kimbrel & Aroldis), his 35 percent strikeout rate was good 5th while his 7.9 percent walk rate was best among those five.

9. Koji Uehara (BOS) – How does he only get $4.25 million from Boston this offseason? That is a steal, especially juxtaposed against the 2/$28 mil that Washington is paying Soriano (and I like Sori). Even missing two months, he deserved more than a $250,000 dollar raise for his work. He had a 14.3 K/BB! He hates walks. In fact, he hates walking. He moves briskly everywhere he goes often breaking into a trot or jog. He walked three batters in 36 innings last year. Carlos Marmol walked three batters in a game three times last year.

8. Joe Nathan (TEX) – Homers ate him up a bit at home (1.7 HR/9) or his sparkling numbers (2.80 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) would’ve been even better. And he was 37 years old.

7. Fernando Rodney (TB) – Who would have bet that Rodney would appear on a list like this… ever? Chalk one up for the “change of scenery” factor working and how. The Rays remade Rodney and he became one of baseball’s best relievers recapturing his strikeout-per-inning stuff while walking next to nobody (far and away a career-best 5 percent BB rate and 1.8 BB/9; previous best was 9 & 3.5). His velo even spiked a bit up to a career high 98.2 MPH on his four-seamer making his 83 MPH changeup that much more devastating.

6. David Robertson (NYY) – He experienced the worst timed injury ever going down in early May shortly after getting the closer’s role once Mariano Rivera went down. Robertson had been missing bats like crazy for four years, but it was always paired with a walk rate of 12 percent or worse. That changed last year when he cut it to just 7.7 percent with little cost to his strikeouts (dipped from an obscene 37 percent to a still-excellent 33 percent). He’s added a groundball element to his game the last two years only adding to his effectiveness.

5. Kenley Jansen (LAD) – An irregular heartbeat could barely tame Jansen, though it did cost him about half of September. He’s usually the one doling out irregular heartbeats, terrifying batters into submission with his filthy cutter which he throws almost exclusively (93 percent of the time). When a pitch is that good, why throw anything else? Sounds like another reliever we all know pretty well.

4. Jason Motte (StL) – Completely embraced the closer’s role en route his best across-the-board season yet in a career-high 72 innings. His 2.75 ERA was up from 2011’s 2.25, but the WHIP dropped from 0.96 to 0.92 while his strikeout rate spiked majorly to 31 percent without impacting his 6 percent walk rate. I think he is one of the more underrated relievers in the game, but that could just be my perception of him. I guess we’ll see tonight on the lists of those involved in the show.

3. Sergio Romo (SF) – While I’m constantly annoyed at how much the Giants baby Romo, I understand it. It’s probably not a surprise that he posted his best year in 2011 when they limited him to just 48 innings (1.50 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 40% K rate, 14.0 K/BB). I’m just being selfish because I want to see flat-out embarrass grown men with his NSFW slider, rated second best in the majors last year per pitch values. His arm may one day accompany the ball to the plate, but until then, enjoy this diminutive badass.

2. Mariano Rivera (NYY) – This was obviously the toughest ranking. He had to be included despite throwing just eight innings last year before tearing his ACL, but how high? It wasn’t a leg injury and he hasn’t seen his dominance diminish at all yet, so I felt comfortable slotting the 43-year old right here. He doesn’t have the same gaudy numbers as a lot of these guys, but he is still fanning a quarter of the batters he faces and his walk rate was actually on the decline from 4.8 in 2010 to 3.4 in 2011, though it ticked up a bit to 6.3 (still great) last year in his tiny sample.

1. Craig Kimbrel (ATL) – He’s on a different plane. If you put up his numbers in a video game, your friends would tell you to get real and up the difficulty. He’s doing it on All-Madden (mixed sport metaphors FTW!). His 40+ percent strikeout rate dropped our jaws, but he wasn’t satisfied so he dropped a 50 burger on our faces fanning precisely 50.2 percent of the batters he faced last year. Major league batters. And for good measure, he nearly sliced his walk rate in half dropping from 10.5 to 6.1 percent.

No one stood a prayer against him evidenced obviously by everything I’ve already shared, but also his .126 batting average against. His 19.2 swinging strike rate was tops in baseball to the surprise of absolutely nobody. He got 40 percent of his strikeouts on three pitches. If he got two strikes on a batter, they hit .068/.112/.105 and struck out 68 percent of the time. I could keep going, but I think you get the point. This was an easy choice.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, MLB Network, Player Focus, Rankings, Relievers, Top 10 | 13 Comments »

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Friday: 01.18.2013

New Podcast Out

BP-fest here of late (which is freeee today!), but Jason has posted the latest episode of our podcast. This week we spoke to Todd Zola of Mastersball.com centering our conversation on player valuation and some of the best ways to approach the process. It was a very good discussion. Additionally we discussed the three-way trade between Seattle-Oakland-Washington, Mike Napoli‘s contract finally getting done, and Matt Harrison‘s extension. We read some emails and discussed some favorite reads catching up after missing that segment for a few weeks. Stupidly, I forgot to include the Rafael Soriano signing. It’s probably because I was too focused on trying to make Manti Te’o girlfriend jokes so here are my thoughts on the signing:

I love it for Washington. It’s costly, sure, but they’re in win-now mode. Soriano now gives the Nats a ridiculous three-headed monster that they can use to shorten games to six innings on many nights. Soriano joins Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen to form the lockdown triumvirate (not to mention Craig Stammen kicking butt in his first full season as a reliever) with Soriano likely getting the first crack at the closer’s job if for no other reason than his salary. Not that he isn’t every bit as capable as the other two.

The last time Soriano was in the National League, he posted a 33 percent strikeout rate in a career-high 75.3 innings adding 27 saves as well. Craig Kimbrel (50 percent in 2012) and Aroldis Chapman (44 percent) think fanning just a third of the batters you face is cute, but for a mere mortal it is fantastic. Known as injury prone, health has eluded Soriano a bit over his entire career, but he has been a 60+ inning pitcher in three of the last four years and five of seven so he seems to have outrun the legitimacy of that tag in his late-20s and early-30s.

Sorry to those with Storen in keeper leagues. Clippard and Storen will be among the more expensive middle relievers in NL-only/deep mixed leagues and they will deliver plenty of value even if they only end up with a save or two all year. Meanwhile back on Soriano’s former team, David Robertson‘s value ticks upward again as the incumbent behind a now 43-year old Mariano Rivera returning from a torn ACL.

As for the articles referenced:

Posted in Baseball Prospectus, Jobs, Podcast | 1 Comment »

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Friday: 01.18.2013

Free Baseball Prospectus Today!

BPfreeFriday

Not yet a BP subscriber? I’ll forgive you… this one time at least! Today is your chance to get over there and see what you’re missing. Click the pic above to go directly to my archive of work (modesty FTW!)

Click the pic below to read my favorite BP author:

Thorburn

Meanwhile, my SP and RP top 10 lists will be out later today ahead of the MLBN shows this evening.

Posted in Baseball Prospectus, Jobs | 1 Comment »

Thursday: 01.17.2013

Baseball Prospectus Work

My latest piece at BP went up covering three more pitchers in the Keeper Reaper series. Today’s theme was converted relievers and included Chris Sale, Lance Lynn, and Jeff Samardzija. The fantasy team has been doing the KR series across all positions this off-season. If you’re unfamiliar, it’s a series where we discuss the guys who are tough keeper choices depending on league size. You don’t need help on how keeper-worthy Justin Verlander is regardless of league size, but someone like Brandon Morrow is a tougher decision. The league sizes covered are shallow (30 keepers), ,medium (60), deep (90), AL/NL only (60), and super-deep (200). Obviously we assume it’s straight keeper without round and dollar values otherwise it’d be impossible to answer on just about anyone. All of a sudden a $42 Verlander isn’t such a no-brainer. But your league simply keeps five apiece across 12 teams, we can tell you how we feel about players.

Here’s a taste of the Sale entry:

Of course, it wasn’t all roses and rubies (new phrase, use it!); his mechanics are so wretched that they will make your arm hurt worse than Hawk Harrelson makes your ears hurt when watching a game, and he came back down to earth in July through the rest of the year. His 3.6 K/BB wasn’t too far from the first half’s 3.9 mark, and his 9.5 K/9 topped his 8.5 from the first half. His ERA, however, ballooned from 2.19 to 4.03 and his WHIP from 0.96 to 1.34. The worst part was his home run rate exploding from 0.4 to 1.4. Righties obliterated his fastball to the tune of a 1077 OPS in the second half after he kept it at 685 through the first half.

Read the entire piece here.

In my Keeper Reaper entries, I’ve covered:

-Kris Medlen, Roy Halladay,and Morrow

-Wade Miley, Matt Moore, and Jarrod Parker

-Zack Greinke, Yu Darvish, and Aroldis Chapman

-Chris Sale, Lance Lynn, and Jeff Samardzija

If you’re not subscribed to Baseball Prospectus, you can do so here.

Additionally, Jason Collette and I will be recording our podcast tonight with guest Todd Zola of Mastersball and we will be talking a lot about player valuation methodology.

Posted in Baseball, Baseball Prospectus, Jobs, Podcast, Starting Pitchers | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 01.15.2013

Top 10 2B – Review

My DVR is more interested in doing what it wants rather than what I program it to do so I didn’t get a chance to watch the top 10 second basemen show over the weekend as it did not record Friday night. The replay schedule by the MLBN was odd as they re-showed the CF episode four or five times on Saturday and Sunday with no 2B replays thrown in. It is water under the proverbial bridge, though, since I have now seen it and I can present their lists to you compared to mine.

Harold Reynolds was the guest analyst and on Monday’s Clubhouse Confidential, we actually got a look at Brian Kenny’s personal list, too. As I mentioned in the CF post, Bill James is contributing his lists this year, too. Let’s start with MLBN’s machineamajig, The Shredder.

Shredder (my rank):

10. Daniel Murphy (UR)

9. Jason Kipnis (UR)

8. Howard Kendrick (6)

7. Neil Walker (8)

6. Dan Uggla (UR)

5. Brandon Phillips (4)

4. Ian Kinsler (5)

3. Chase Utley (9)

2. Dustin Pedroia (2)

1. Robinson Cano (1)

Three disagreements between my list and The Shredder, just like with the CF list. Jason Kipnis isn’t surprising as I mentioned how close he was to making my list, but ended up at 11 when it was all said and done. I’ll spoil something right here and tell you that this is the only one of the four MLBN-related lists with Daniel Murphy. He was never a consideration for me. He was really good in 2011 (in 109 games), but basically average in 2012. I think The Shredder was way off here.

Even though he wasn’t mentioned with Jose Altuve and Kipnis in my just-missed blurb, Dan Uggla was close. For me, there were just too many more complete players to find room for him especially as we get further and further away from his excellent 2010 season. His 2011 was salvaged by a big second half and the fact that his power was always there (career-high 36 HR), but last year he flopped again and only hit 19 homers.

Where the hell is Ben Zobrist? We know from the CF episode that they are considering where guys are slated to play for 2013 because they included Shin-Soo Choo on their list. And Zobrist actually played second base for 37 percent of his games last year with plenty of experience before 2012, too. Terrible omission.

Harold Reynolds (my rank):

10. Chase Utley (9)

9. Danny Espinosa (7)

8. Rickie Weeks (UR)

7. Aaron Hill (10)

6. Howard Kendrick (6)

5. Marco Scutaro (UR)

4. Ian Kinsler (5)

3. Dustin Pedroia (2)

2. Brandon Phillips (4)

1. Robinson Cano (1)

Only two differences between Reynolds and myself, should I be concerned? Ours were the only lists with Espinosa, too. We were more or less in lockstep on our agreements, too. I rarely agree with Reynolds’ ideas when he’s on Clubhouse Confidential or MLB Tonight so that’s why I find it so interesting how much we agree here.

Where the hell is Zobrist?

Bill James (my rank):

10. Dan Uggla (UR)

9. Rickie Weeks (UR)

8. Jason Kipnis (UR)

7. Aaron Hill (10)

6. Chase Utley (9)

5. Marco Scutaro (UR)

4. Brandon Phillips (4)

3. Ian Kinsler (5)

2. Dustin Pedroia (2)

1. Robinson Cano (1)

OK, I admit it, I should’ve had Kipnis on my list, but the Scutaro love is horribly short-sighted. I guess his great 61 games with San Francisco (plus playoffs) eliminate his terrible 95 with Colorado. Oh, and his entirely nondescript, below average decade of performance prior to 2012. The fifth best second baseman in baseball? I’m a big-time James guy, but that’s just bad.

There were grumblings throughout the show from just about everyone who appeared on it that second base is this wasteland, but I’m just not seeing it. I didn’t even have Kipnis, Altuve, R.Weeks, Uggla, Scutaro, or Murphy on my list let alone Darwin Barney, who is arguably the best defender at the position, and other capable guys like Omar Infante, Dustin Ackley, or Kelly Johnson who all deserve a modicum of consideration if we are putting Scutaro on the list. This is simply not a thin position.

Where the hell is Zobrist?

Brian Kenny (my rank):

10. Marco Scutaro (UR)

9. Brandon Phillips (4)

8. Rickie Weeks (UR)

7. Neil Walker (8)

6. Jason Kipnis (UR)

5. Aaron Hill (10)

4. Ian Kinsler (4)

3. Chase Utley (9)

2. Dustin Pedroia (2)

1. Robinson Cano (1)

Kenny let me down. I thought for sure he’d remedy the problem. Alas, where the hell is Zobrist? For someone as stats-oriented as Kenny who has touted Zobrist’s value in the advanced metrics, I’m surprised he missed him. There’s really no excuse for it from any of them. He wasn’t even mentioned on the show.

That’s a pretty aggressive ranking for Hill, but Kenny buys his 2012. He’s shown the power on more than one occasion before 2012 and the speed emerged in 2011 so it’s just a matter of whether he hits somewhere near his .302 from 2012 or the .225 he hit from 2010-2011. Obviously I liked a few guys more, but I don’t bring this up to quibble with it, rather to highlight it as a discussion point.

—

These lists caused some consternation among one All-Star second sacker and he took to Twitter to voice his concerns in a most-hilarious way:

I wonder if Phillips objects to my #4 ranking of him. I had him #3 initially, but eventually landed with Zobrist a bit higher. I was bummed to see Phillips’ walk rate tumble a full two percentage points as it really sliced into his OBP. If he had walked 44 times like he has the last three years on average, his OBP would’ve jumped from .321 to .346 and his output would look quite a bit better since he essentially matched everything else from 2011.

As I mentioned in the CF review, my SP and RP top 10s are coming up later this week to prepare for Friday’s shows.

Where the hell is Zobrist?

Posted in Baseball, MLB Network, Off-Season, Player Focus, Rankings, Second Base, Top 10 | 18 Comments »

Monday: 01.14.2013

Top 10 CF – Review

I mentioned in the post with my centerfielder list that it would be a bit difficult because of the transition at the position. Should Mike Trout really qualify since he’s unlikely to play there much in 2013? How about Bryce Harper? I didn’t even really consider Shin-Soo Choo because he hasn’t yet played there for Cincinnati, but he was all over the MLBN lists. I love his bat, but his defense is a big fat TBD. For the record, I don’t think he’ll be abysmal or even bad. Probably just average.

Let’s take a look at how things shook out on the show.

Their primary list comes from The Shredder, which if you’ve watched Clubhouse Confidential at all (and you should be), you know is their device that churns out their projections and assessments of players based on the data. Sometimes not even Brian Kenny, their resident stats-guy, agrees with The Shredder and the former-ballplayer-turned-analyst never does. New twist this year is they get lists from Bill James, too!

Shredder (my rank):

10. Michael Bourn (3)

9. Adam Jones (7)

8. Jon Jay (NR)

7. Curtis Granderson (10)

6. Shin-Soo Choo (NR)

5. Jacoby Ellsbury (NR)

4. Austin Jackson (4)

3. Matt Kemp (5)

2. Andrew McCutchen (2)

1. Mike Trout (1)

Shredder matched seven of my selections including three perfect matches. It inexplicably had Bourn at 10 which led me to believe it isn’t counting defense all that much. I found that ranking patently absurd. Inclusions of Jay, Choo, and Ellsbury don’t bother one bit, but rating Bourn that low just doesn’t compute for me.

Jay is probably surprising to a lot of folks and it definitely raised my eyebrow when I saw him pop up about 6 minutes into the show, but upon further inspection, it’s not a bad selection at all. Just not over Bourn. Jay is 14th in fWAR the last two years for CFs and his 110 wRC+ is 10th ranked. He isn’t a power guy at all with just 14 homers the last two years, but his .301/.359/.412 is pretty strong, especially that .359 OBP.

Bill Ripken (my rank):

10. B.J. Upton (6)

9. Shin-Soo Choo (NR)

8. Curtis Granderson (10)

7. Michael Bourn (3)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (NR)

5. Austin Jackson (4)

4. Matt Kemp (5)

3. Adam Jones (7)

2. Andrew McCutchen (2)

1. Mike Trout (1)

Maybe I’m overrating Bourn? Seven if better than 10, but I’m still surprised he’s rated out of the top five, especially from someone who is proud to ignore stats like Ripken. I figured he’d praise Bourn for “playing the game the right way”, moving the runner along, and his defense. He saved his praise for Jones who he feels will be an MVP candidate in 2013. At least Ripken got Upton in there. C’mon Shredder.

Bill James (my rank):

10. Angel Pagan (NR)

9. Michael Bourn (3)

8. Shin-Soo Choo (NR)

7. Austin Jackson (4)

6. Jacoby Ellsbury (NR)

5. Adam Jones (7)

4. Curtis Granderson (10)

3. Matt Kemp (5)

2. Mike Trout (1)

1. Andrew McCutchen (2)

OK fine, I’m overrating Bourn. Whatever! I don’t feel bad leaving out Ellsbury. I see an MVP-type season sandwiched around 92 terrible games the last three years. With the list being Top 10 RIGHT NOW, I can’t see how he has a very strong case, especially for the mid-list rankings he pulled on all three lists. Show me something, Jacoby.

Is it bad that Ripken and I had the most matches with eight? I matched seven apiece with The Shredder and James. Unique to my list were Harper at 9 and Denard Span at 8. Shredder went it alone with Jay, all 10 of Ripken’s appeared elsewhere, and James flew solo on Pagan.

I’ll do the 2B review soon and then SPs and RPs coming up later this week.

Posted in Baseball, Centerfield, MLB Network, Off-Season, Rankings, Top 10 | 16 Comments »

Friday: 01.11.2013

Top 10 Second Basemen Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will fire up the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will start with the both the centerfield and second basemen shows. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air.                                           This is not a fantasy list!!

SECOND BASEMEN

This position isn’t nearly as crowded as centerfield. In fact I don’t even really see the need for detailed honorable mentions. I had Jose Altuve close and Jason Kipnis even a bit closer, but I was pretty set on this top 10.

10. Aaron Hill (ARI) – Kipnis could’ve taken this spot and for some, I’m sure he will. Kip’s first season started off nicely, but faded quickly and sputtered to the finish. Hill, meanwhile, has truly been all over the map since entering the league in 2005 sometimes looking like a superstar and other times barely deserving a starting role. Even at the times the bat has lagged, he has been pretty solid in the field throughout.

9. Chase Utley (PHI) – It’s not really about skill with Utley as he still has tons of it, but obviously the injuries have stacked up and conspired to limit him to just 301 games the last three years. That alone has him buried on this list.

8. Neil Walker (PIT) – You may not remember that Walker was a four-time top 100 prospect by Baseball America from 2005-2008, though that was a catcher then third baseman. He has settled in at second and really started to put together a nice career. He remains one of the game’s bests at the position, though somewhat overlooked as he doesn’t have that one standout skill.

7. Danny Espinosa (WAS) – The defense has always been there for Espinosa so being about a league-average bat the last two years has really heightened his overall value, though the Nats would no doubt love to see him swing-and-miss a good bit less. As is, the 26-year old remains a positive asset, but looking at his skills and seeing how good he can be when he’s on fire, it’s hard not to think there is more in there ready to be untapped.

6. Howie Kendrick (LAA) – While maybe he has failed against the lofty expectations that had him winning multiple batting titles, Kendrick is undoubtedly putting together a successful career. He finally appears to be past the injury bug and he delivers in all three facets of the game making him one of the best, but also most underrated second basemen in the league.

5. Ian Kinsler (TEX) – His struggles are clouded a bit by the fact that he was still a fantasy beast so you might not realize he was essentially league-average. His fielding and base running have been huge assets making him a complete second baseman and one of the best in the game.

4. Brandon Phillips (CIN) – The glove, oh man the glove. I love watching him play defense. His defense elevated him here, though he still has a quality bat and does tremendous work on the base paths. The biggest change in his game last year that led to a ho-hum offensive line was the drop in walk rate. He had established himself at the seven percent level for four years before dropping to 4.5 percent last year. Hopefully it’s an aberration.

3. Ben Zobrist (TB) – Baseball’s best Swiss Army Knife, Zobrist is usually pulling double or triple duty across the diamond for the Rays, but the addition of Yunel Escobar moves him to second on a more permanent basis. He may spend some time in the outfield, but with 189 of his last 313 games at second (60 percent), he is getting ranked at this position. Oh, and all that moving around the diamond has taken nothing away from his hitting as he has been one of the best players in all of baseball the last four years.

2. Dustin Pedroia (BOS) – What doesn’t this guy do well? He has it all: huge bat, amazing glove, and brilliant base running (including an 80 percent career success rate). When a 797 OPS is a “fade”, you know you’ve set the bar pretty high. He’s still better than all but one.

1. Robinson Cano (NYY) – Duh-doy! Seriously, do I really need to expound on it? He’s lapping the field with the bat all while continually improving his defense to an above average level. He’s so good and he is just turning 30.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, MLB Network, Player Focus, Rankings, Second Base, Top 10 | 16 Comments »

Friday: 01.11.2013

Top 10 Centerfielders Right Now

Tonight MLB Network will fire up the 2013 iteration of their “Top 10 Right Now” series at each position capped off with a “Top 100 Overall”. They will start with the both the centerfield and second basemen shows. I always enjoy this series and generally look forward to it after the New Year since I eat up just about any fresh baseball content I can as we wait for pitchers & catchers to report. Instead of putting up my lists after they air their selections, I’ll post mine ahead of time and then compare notes after the shows air. Again, this is not a fantasy list.

CENTERFIELDERS

This was a bit tough because there is some legitimate transition at this position. Because it is a premier defensive position, we have some guys who are excellent with the leather, but lagging with the bat so deciding their fate was difficult. As such, I did some honorable mentions to cover these cases:

Chris Young (OAK) – He grades out extremely well with the defensive metrics even if your metric of choice happens to be your eyes, but his offense has never been great and has been on the decline since 2010’s peak. He’s now in a playing time crunch in Oakland.

Josh Hamilton (LAA) – He has been in center for exactly 52 percent of the time the last two years (130-of-250) with modest results. He is unlikely to see a single game there in 2013 or perhaps ever again as two of the best centerfielders will be playing in the same outfield with him.

Peter Bourjos (LAA) – A near-shoo-in for the 2014 iteration of this list, Bourjos is arguably the best defensive centerfielder in the game, but he was limited to just 195 plate appearances last year because his production at the dish imploded after a strong 2011. I feel like my list reflects how seriously I consider defense, it’s not just a list sorted by OPS, but Bourjos just didn’t do enough in the follow up to his breakout 2011 to warrant a spot.

Cameron Maybin (SD) – Similar to Bourjos in that almost all of his value is coming from his defense and base running right now with a lagging bat, except Maybin is logging 560-ish plate appearances of modest to poor bat work. Don’t even worry about bringing Petco Park, either. He was far worse on the road last year with a disgusting 572 OPS in 269 plate appearances

Ben Revere (PHI) – Revere is a ridiculously good defensive outfielder, but his time has been split between right and center with the best work being done in the former. The Phillies paid a handsome fee to the Twins for Revere’s services in order to make him a full-time centerfielder. He may well wind up on the 2014 list like Bourjos, but for now he’s merely an honorable mention.

10. Curtis Granderson (NYY) – Grandy was so exceptional with the bat in 2011 that most overlooked any defensive foibles, but when the bat regressed in 2012 his issues in center were exacerbated. He has really struggled with what the Fielding Bible labels as “Deep” plays the last two years which has result in some poor grades across all the defensive metrics. The bat and base running make a net-positive as a centerfielder, but the diminishing defense holds him back.

9. Bryce Harper (WAS) – He spent 92 of his 138 games kicking butt in centerfield during his rookie year, but the Nats set the precedent for the Phillies by also paying the Twins a handsome fee for a big time centerfielder when they acquired Denard Span at the end of November. Span has a deep enough track record in the field and with the bat so if he is healthy, he’s their guy in center and that’s why Harper is buried on the list. I’ll be interested to see how MLBN handles these cases since they won’t technically enter 2013 as centerfielders, but we know without question that they are very capable centerfielders.

8. Denard Span (WAS) – And here he is. I love Span’s defense, he is definitely one of the best out there with the glove and hopefully his concussion issues are behind him so he can stay on the field. He rebounded last year from a two year lull with the bat, but not quite to his exceptional level from 2008-2009. He still owns those bat skills and when combined with his defense, he is a near-elite centerfield.

7. Adam Jones (BAL) – His defensive reputation is definitely substantial as evidenced by a pair of Gold Gloves, but I don’t see an elite glove when watching him. I see some great player, but otherwise he’s a good-not-great defender. The defensive metrics aren’t particularly fond of him, especially for a two-time hardware winner, but reality and perception are often far apart when it comes to the Gold Gloves. Elsewhere, his bat continues to advance so even modest defense makes him a tremendous asset for Baltimore.

6. B.J. Upton (ATL) – This is one where my eyes and the metrics just don’t marry well. I see a silky smooth defender who uses his speed well and makes a lot of amazing plays. I think Upton has to fend off a lot of heat being labeled a disappointment because he isn’t a superstar and it looked like he would become one after 2007. He has been a remarkably consistent player value-wise save a 2009 blip in which he still delivered 2.4 fWAR. He was paid like a star for a reason, he is one.

5. Matt Kemp (LAD) – This is like an amped up Granderson case. Kemp’s bat is phenomenal, one of the absolute best in baseball the last two years even with him playing just 106 games last year. But his defense, while improved, still leaves something to be desired. I feel like he has been improving a lot since that debacle across-the-board in 2010, but the metrics are still down on him. If this were a fantasy list, he likely wouldn’t fall past two or three, but since we’re focusing on the complete package, he is down here.

4. Austin Jackson (DET) – I went back and forth on A-Jax and almost slotted him as high as second because I think his defense is truly elite and the bat took a major, sustainable step forward last year. Of course, he has just the one elite year with the bat so his outstanding glove earns him the four-spot. While the hitting improvements are definitely viable, he still has to go out and prove it with a strong follow-up.

3. Michael Bourn (FA) – Bourn hasn’t reached 105 wRC+ once in the last four years yet he has finished 4.9, 4.7, 4.1, and 6.4 fWAR. That is some serious defensive and base running value being delivered by Bourn. He is still lingering on the market, but someone is going to get themselves a fantastic centerfielder.

2. Andrew McCutchen (PIT) – I’m not a huge fan of his defense, but he has excellent and sustained bat to earn such a high spot. He is improving yearly with the bat and seems to be getting better in the field. He isn’t atrocious by any means, but I didn’t see a Gold Glove winner out there in 2012. When you’re crushing the hell out of the baseball like Cutch does, you don’t need to be Peter Bourjos-esque with the leather.

1. Mike Trout (LAA) – Of course, it doesn’t hurt if you are! It’s only the one season, but Trout was Cutch-plus with the bat all while playing Bourjosian D, predominantly in center (110-of-139 games). I know he isn’t going to start 2013 in centerfield, but he is still the best centerfielder in the game right now. Unlike with Span/Harper, Bourjos could lose his starting role if he performs poorly with the bat again and Trout would assume the role. Harper only moves back to center with a Span injury so he is more of a theoretical CF than Trout. I will be very interested to see how MLBN handles this tonight.

Posted in Baseball, Centerfield, MLB Network, Outfield, Rankings, Top 10 | 16 Comments »

Friday: 01.11.2013

FakeTeams Guest Post on Homer Bailey

The fantasy site over at SBNation, FakeTeams, is wrapping up Starting Pitcher Week and Bret Sayre asked if I could contribute a guest post on a starting pitcher-related topic of my choice. With the release of their 51-100 rankings, I decided to choose a favorite of mine from that segment. The result was a breakdown on Homer Bailey that turned out pretty well if I may say so myself.

Here’s an excerpt:

In 2012, [Bailey] had just five implosion starts, or 15 percent of his 33 outings. He also cut down the damage from his worst outing of the year. Last year he had a nine earned run shellacking that did a number on his ERA (accounted for 14 percent of his total earned runs), but this year his worst outing was six earned runs. Everyone is going to have a bad outing (Justin Verlander had an eight run disaster last year), but mitigating the overall damage helps stem the tide on a poor composite ERA. Bailey isn’t Verlander so he will have trouble recovering from an eight earned run outing. Whereas Verlander put up a 1.93 ERA in his next six starts.

Some highlights from week of Starting Pitchers:

Plus so much more including other profiles similar to the Bailey on guys like Jarrod Parker, Jordan Zimmermann, and C.J. Wilson. 

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Guest Work, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

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