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Wednesday: 11.23.2011

Is Playoff Hangover Real for Starting Pitchers?

Analyzing and subsequently choosing starting pitchers for a fantasy baseball is more art than science these days.  There are tons of different theories, hypotheses, principles, concepts, philosophies, ideas, notions and axioms that fantasy managers will subscribe to and often the landscape becomes so jumbled that some of these will overlap or outright contradict another.  One such adage is that starting pitchers on teams that make a deep run into the playoffs are susceptible to a level fatigue that non-playoff pitchers avoid.

It is kind of a tributary of the Verducci Effect.  The Verducci Effect warns that pitchers under 25 years old who see their inning workload increase by 30 or more innings are subject to regression in performance often because the season is cut short by injury, but also the innings they do pitch aren’t on par with the previously set watermark.  The Playoff Hangover, which doesn’t have nearly the traction of the Verducci Effect, doesn’t have age limits or even any hard and fast inning requirements.  The loose concept is that the extra month of pitching and late start to the offseason could make a pitcher subject to performance degradation the following year.

The logic behind this supposition is sound enough on its face, more pitching + less rest = worse followup… OK, not outrageous .  It isn’t hard to envision how a longer season with a 20-35 extra innings (depending on the caliber of pitcher and how far their team goes) could have a negative impact on a starting pitcher, especially in this day and age when pitch counts and inning workloads are at the fore and the focus on protecting pitchers is at an all-time high.

But how does the theory play out in practice?  Nominally the best teams in the league make the playoffs and then the best of that bunch advances on into the League Championship Series and eventually the World Series.  Of course it takes a strong rotation to do this so it would stand to reason that often the pitchers on these teams advancing round-to-round are among some of the league’s best.

The relevance here is that the sample of pitchers isn’t likely to be riddled with injury washouts and subpar hurlers fit for the backend of second division teams.  Should an extra 25 innings from a Texas Ranger or St. Louis Cardinal starting pitcher impact their 2012 projection and ranking this offseason?  Does a lengthy playoff run portend performance degradation the following year?

To observe the potential effects of deep playoff runs, I looked at the inning output year-to-year of the starting pitchers for teams making it to the LCS in each league.  If this potential hangover had any substance, it would likely show itself in the form of injury resulting in decreased workloads for the parties involved.  I looked at the starting pitchers from the 12 LCS teams since 2008 which yielded a sample of 29 starters who all threw at least 12 playoff innings and averaged 23 as a group.

Of that group:

  • 16 of 29 (55%) saw their innings decrease the following year
  • 8 of the 16 (50%) saw what I would term a “marginal” decrease in workload (fewer than 20 innings) and averaged 204 innings as a group
  • 1 of those 8 (13%) threw fewer than 195 innings (Scott Kazmir with 147, after 152 during the playoff year)
  • 3 of the 16 (19%) saw what I would term a “marked” drop in workload, 20-35 innings, but that group still averaged 198 innings
  • 10 of the 16 (63%) threw what I would term “full seasons” of work averaging 208 innings
  • 5 of the 16 (31%) saw what I would term a “major” drop in workload, 50+ innings, due in large part to injury
  • 1 of those 5 (20%) threw a career high in innings during their playoff year
  • 0 of those 5 (0%) were within the generally accepted injury risk age range of 25 years or younger
  • The group of 5 averaged 32 years old while no one was younger than 28
  • 13 of 29 (45%) saw their innings increase the following year
  • 8 of the 13 (62%) saw a marginal increase in workload (fewer than 20 innings) and averaged 219 innings as a group
  • 2 of the 13 (15%) saw a marked increase in workload (20-35 innings) and averaged 219 innings
  • 2 of the 13 (15%) saw what I would term a “legitimate” increase in workload (36-49 innings) and averaged 214 innings
  • 1 of the 13 (8%) saw a major increase in workload (50+ innings) as Madison Bumgarner threw 94 more major league innings the following year.  That is admittedly skewed because he truly threw 193 innings in 2010 if you count his minor league total.  In that case, his workload increase would be 12 innings from 2010 to 2011.
  • 3 of the 29 appear in both ends of the pool including Cole Hamels (who actually appears twice increase pool and once in the decrease pool), CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee.

Are there any great lessons to be learned within these results?  It would seem not as far as I can tell.  We saw a total of 17% injury attrition from the group (5 of 29) and while that isn’t a meaningless figure, is there any indication that it had anything to do with the extra work in the playoff year?  They were all established veterans and only Jonathan Sanchez had reached previously untouched heights in terms of total workload.

Starting pitchers are inherently risky which is why you don’t see them populate the early rounds of drafts despite how often several of them finish among the top 25 in fantasy value in a given year.  We are always looking for advancements in analyzing and projecting pitchers year to year and attempts to show how workload impacts performance is currently the primary focus.  So while it might make some logical sense to concoct a theorem whereby deep playoff runs under the most intense spotlight the game offers will eventually hamper a pitcher in the subsequent year, it doesn’t seem to hold up as a bankable red flag.

Further damning the notion is the fact that it is only brought up in the context of the playoffs whereby fall and winter leagues, probably because of their scant coverage, aren’t thought of as future hindrances. While the pitchers in the Arizona Fall League or Venezuelan Winter League aren’t up to the caliber of the MLB Playoffs on the whole, each league will funnel impact players into the league for the 2012 season.

Any proof that an extended playoff run contributed to an injury-shortened season the following year would like be offered retrospectively and thus downgrading a Chris Carpenter or CJ Wilson (who pitched the most playoff innings in 2011 at 36 and 28, respectively) because of their team’s run through the World Series would be foolhardy and most of all, arbitrary.

Carpenter is37 years old with a checkered injury history on the heels of back-to-back 235+ inning seasons, something he has never done, so there is reason for caution with him, but if he does succumb to injury at any point in 2012 it isn’t likely to be related to the extra playoff innings.  Wilson, who only recently transitioned to starting, will soon be rewarded for excelling in that transition and who knows how a new environment, fame, heaps of money and lofty expectations will impact him in 2012?  But if he is felled by injury next season, I don’t see his 28 playoff innings anywhere near the top of the suspect list.  Happenstance and bad luck should be brought in for questioning first.  Especially in light of the fact that Wilson went from 74 relief innings in 2009 to 204 innings as a starter in 2010 (plus 24 playoff innings) to 223 (and 28) in 2011 without incident.

The Playoff Hangover Panic is a tool of revisionists retrofit onto a poor performance when no obvious explanation exists.  Thus you won’t see any concerns in the 2012 Starting Pitcher Guide around the elongated seasons of Carpenter, Wilson, Jaime Garcia, Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, Justin Verlander, Yovani Gallardo, Edwin Jackson, Matt Harrison, Zack Greinke, Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Kyle Lohse, Shaun Marcum or Randy Wolf, all of whom threw 10+ playoff innings as their teams reached the LCS.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Playoffs, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 10.31.2011

The Offseason

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball.  I’ll tell you what I do.  I stare out the window and wait for spring. — Rogers Hornsby

You have no doubt seen this quote before and likely quite recently in light of the 2011 season coming to an end.  I think I have seen it pop up in my Twitter feed at least 5-6 times in the last week.  I use it here because it is so fitting.  Sure, I like football a good bit and my Detroit Lions are actually giving me something to care about, too, but even still I am already looking forward to everything baseball-related that we get in the fall and winter months: Bill James Handbook being released, Hot Stove league of free agency and offseason trading, the Winter Meetings in December, the BaseballHQ.com Forecaster being sent out, MLB Network’s 30 Clubs in 30 Days and even the first appearance of fantasy baseball magazines on the bookshelves at Barnes & Nobles (RIP Borders *single tear*).  Perhaps my favorite offseason event of them all is coming up this week as I head out to Phoenix for the BaseballHQ.com First Pitch Forums and Arizona Fall League conference.

My month-plus hiatus between the regular ending and the World Series was fruitful and enjoyable.  I did log some research work for the offseason content here at Baseball by Paul, but mostly I tried to enjoy the time off and give my fingers a rest.  I followed my Tigers through a pair of thrilling playoff series which included a trip to Dallas to watch games 1 and 2 of ALCS with a couple of great friends.  Even though we lost both games, I don’t regret a single second of the trip.  The Dallas fans were a bit more hostile & rude than I anticipated (please don’t ever judge Texas/southern hospitality on a trip to Dallas), but all in all, it was a great time.  Speaking of the playoffs, that was perhaps one of the best sets of playoffs ever played with 38 of a possible 41 games being played, many of them nailbiters until the end.  Obviously I’d have preferred to see my Tigers in a rematch with the Cardinals for the World Series, but the Rangers/Cardinals matchup didn’t disappoint in the least.

The Hot Stove has already kicked off with some major moves of the front office variety taking place with the Red Sox, Cubs and Padres all getting new general managers while the Red Sox, Marlins and White Sox have already or will soon tab new field managers.  On the player movement front, we are seeing options being picked and declined including the CC Sabathia opt-out saga has already run its course from start to finish with he and Yankees agreeing on a new deal.  The biggest player news thus far has taken place in the AL Central with the trading of Derek Lowe to Cleveland for a minor leaguer and Minnesota acquiring Matt Maloney through waivers.  Lowe joins Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson atop the Indians rotation as they continue to play for the here and now after moving a significant chunk of their top level farm pieces for Jimenez during the summer.

Lowe may end up adding more off the field than on it, though, as he is a groundball-heavy, control artist who may find life difficult in Cleveland with Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis defending up the middle for him.  Lonnie Chisenhall, who plays third base, checked out a bit more favorably with his glove although both he and Kipnis have limited samples which can cause issues with the defensive metrics so we might not have a true idea of their talents until seeing them for at least a full season in the majors.  With Lowe, they will get plenty of chances to prove their worth.

Maloney, with a career walk rate of 1.9 in his 80 innings, seems tailor-made for Minnesota and their “walk-nobody ever or else…” pitching philosophy.  His 6.1 strikeout rate isn’t overly intimidating, but it is better than some of the control-only pitchers they have given large inning totals to in the past (I’m looking at you and your 4.8 K/9, Nick Blackburn).  He will have to battle for a role on the team, but it is an interesting pickup that could bear some fruit.

So that is a quick rundown of what we have seen in the very early stages of the offseason, but there is just so much more to come.  Look for regular posting to return starting next week when I am back from Phoenix including a preliminary Top X starting pitcher list.  I haven’t decided if I want to go 50 or 100 yet, thus it’s top X for now.  Also, I now have a set schedule over at RotoHardball.com that includes an afternoon post on Mondays geared toward AL-Only league topics and a morning piece on Thursdays focused on NL-Only league topics.  In other words, I am not focusing so much on the star levels of the player pool, rather often digging deeper as single leagues generally utilize more of each team’s 25-man roster than a standard mixed league.  Today, I wrote about Bartolo Colon and his outlook for 2012.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 09.20.2011

Trolling the Wire: The Finish Line

(Ed. note: – That’s embarrassing… this was supposed to go up at 11:30 AM yet it was scheduled for 11:30 PM by accident… sorry for those of you who needed guys today.  However I’ve used Holland and E-Jax so often that you probably could’ve guessed they would be the picks. )

Just about a week left (season ends Wednesday, September 28th) and while there might not be a lot of undecided races in Major League Baseball, there are still plenty of undecided winners in fantasy leagues everywhere.  Just within my own leagues there is one where five teams are split by just 6.0 points and another where three teams split by 6.5 points.  And of course any head-to-head league comes right down to the wire.

Last week’s spot starter picks did quite well if I may shed any modesty for a moment as they posted a 2.01 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 67 innings.  Just one of the 10 pitchers gave up more than three runs (Wade Davis, 4) and six gave up one or none so in a week when getting the best out your last remaining starts is especially crucial, these guys came through.

The Hail Mary picks

In theory every game counts the same, but in April or even August you have time overcome nightmarish starts, but with nine days left in the season it’s do or die.  One implosion can end your chances depending on the league standings.

With precious little time left, I’m focusing only on prime picks.  If you’re in Hail Mary mode just about anyone with a pulse will qualify so I don’t think I need to highlight those guys.  I’m going for the best and best (or best of the rest as it were since these are guys on many waiver wires).

TUESDAY:

Derek Holland (TEX @ OAK) – Holland has been mostly good to us and a start in Oakland is pretty close to a no-brainer with someone of his talent.

Edwin Jackson (STL v. NYM) – He’s been a stalwart for those who stream pitchers because no matter how well he pitched, he couldn’t seem to get any real respect this year.

WEDNESDAY:

No one of note – Javier Vazquez finally had his ownership rate move up significantly and it is now 73% so he is no longer available to us spot start players.  Some marginal guys I considered that would be upper tier Hail Marys include Brad Peacock, Brandon McCarthy and Wade Miley. 

THURSDAY:

Still no one – Philip Humber and Jeff Niemann are among the few longshot options, but Humber has been very inconsistent since the All-Star break and Niemann has the Yankees. 

FRIDAY:

Josh Collmenter (ARI v. SF) – A favorable matchup against a weak lineup (in a huge game for both teams, of course) and he has walked just three in his last five starts (all in one start against San Diego).

Matt Harrison (TEX v. SEA) – An even better matchup than Collmenter and while his control isn’t as sharp, his propensity for strikeouts is a bit higher.

SATURDAY:

Aaron Harang (SD v. LAD) – I have covered Harang at home on more than one occasion, he’s money at home.

Joe Saunders (ARI v. SF) – I know what you’re thinking, you thought I wasn’t going with risky plays here down the stretch, but Saunders has been money for a nice stretch and I like him against a weak lineup even if the game means a ton for both teams.

SUNDAY:

Mike Minor (ATL @ WAS), Edwin Jackson (STL v. CHC), Bud Norris (HOU v. COL), Derek Holland (TEX v. SEA) – All four have been staples on the Trolling so I don’t feel I really need to sell you on them with commentary.  If you have been streaming for any period of time, chances are you have used one or more of these guys on multiples occasions.

Monday-Wednesday later this week when the spots become official.

Posted in Analysis, Player Focus, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Monday: 09.12.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 24 Tuesday-Friday

I didn’t love anyone for tonight’s games so this week’s Trolling will focus on Tuesday through Friday.  As with Sunday’s picks, I will mention some Hail Mary picks throughout that you can consider if you’re desperately trying to make a move.  I’m not counting these in my actual tally because while they are calculated picks that have enough upside to deliver, they are only being mentioned for the most dire of situations.

I will show you the weekly results with and without them just for fun, but note that the official numbers at year’s end will not include the longshot picks from Sunday and the rest of the season.

 

TUESDAY

Standard:

Mike Minor (ATL v. FLO) – He has gotten some dirty wins and his 3.58 ERA the last month (28 IP) isn’t off-the-charts great, but I love the strikeout potential with 30 in those 28 IP & 8.2 K/9 for the year.

Mike Leake (CIN v. CHC) – He just threw a complete game giving up two runs on three hits against these Cubs and he has a 2.74 ERA and 3.5 K/BB in 23 innings (3 starts) against them this year.

Cory Luebke (SD @ SF) – Up and down lately as the rookie seems to be hitting a bit of a wall (no more than 6 IP in last 6 starts).  Alas he remains a strong strikeout asset.  Despite three straight losses, he is still a worthy option, especially against the Giants.

Guillermo Moscoso  (OAK v. LAA) – Home: 6-2, 2.26 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB; road: 2-6, 4.82, 1.43 and 1.2.  Let’s play the numbers here.

Hail Mary:

Dillon Gee (NYM v. WAS) – He has been too inconsistent lately as he too may be suffering from the proverbial rookie wall, but he has three straight outings with six strikeouts and he is markedly better at home with a 3.18 ERA against 5.59 on the road.

 

WEDNESDAY

Standard:

Edwin Jackson (STL @ PIT) – I don’t understand how someone can be as good as he has been this season yet still have ownership rates below 50% at multiple outlets.

Wade Davis (TB @ BAL) – On the heels of a complete game effort with two earned runs against the Red Sox, Davis earns a look against an inferior opponent by comparison.

Derek Holland (TEX v. CLE) – The human rollercoaster.  Someone this inconsistent might be best suited for a Hail Mary, but I believe in his immense talent.  He laid an egg last time out against the Indians, but I think he gets them back.

Hail Mary:

Randall Delgado (ATL v. FLO) – Ultra-talented rookie against a lame Marlins team could end well.  He has been limited innings-wise in his first couple of starts since the recall, but he has also looked strong.

Bud Norris (HOU v. PHI) – Normally a standard pick, but against Roy Halladay his chances at a win are severely limited while the Phillies offense has become more imposing as the season has developed.

Rich Harden (OAK v. LAA) – He has crazy strikeout potential, but I think everyone has had him on their team at one point or another and knows just how maddening it can be.  Tread cautiously.

 

THURSDAY

Anibal Sanchez is still only on 72% of teams at ESPN.  I won’t count him as a pick because he isn’t widely available, but check your league just in case.  He should be back at 100% the way he has been throwing the last month.

Standard:

Brandon McCarthy (OAK v. DET) – Hate to go against my Tigers not only because they are my favorite team, but also because they have been rolling lately.  However, McCarthy has also been rolling and he could stop the locomotive known as the Tigers, especially at home.

Hail Mary:

Homer Bailey (CIN v. CHC) – Strong skills, but gopheritis continues to bite Bailey year after year.  A career-best 3.2 K/BB is worth buying into and it’s been even better the last month with a 5.8 K/BB powered by his 8.2 K/9 in 38 innings.


FRIDAY

Standard:

Javier Vazquez (FLO @ WAS) – I have been rolling him out weekly and it continues this week, though his ownership rate has finally crept above 60%.  Still too low.

Tim Stauffer (SD v. ARI) – Another hometown hero with a 2.76 in PETCO against a 4.95 mark on the road.  The skills are significantly better, too, with 6.5 K/9 and 3.4 K/BB marks at home against 5.7 and 1.7 on the road.  I thought he could be an any venue kind of guy, but it hasn’t played out that way in 2011.

Hail Mary:

Felipe Paulino (KC v. CHW) – A microcosm of his inconsistency can be seen in his last two starts: shuts down the Mariners in Seattle and gets crushed by the A’s in Oakland.  Strikeout potential is significant.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | 2 Comments »

Sunday: 09.11.2011

Sunday Spot Starters

For many teams, Sunday could mark the end of their 2011 season.  Head-to-head leagues are in the playoffs and teams facing elimination will need their team’s best effort to advance on.  Hopefully enough categories are close enough to make winning a possibility as opposed to an unthinkable long-shot.

Since there will be different situations across leagues on Sunday, I will break the picks up between all-in picks and standard picks.  All-in picks are for those who need a miracle and just need to pile up strikeouts, win chances and hope for the best with the rates.  They will want to scoop as many standard picks as they can, but they may also need to dip into the all-in ones depending on availability.

Standard Picks: recommended for anyone employing spot-starting this season.

Javier Vazquez (FLO @ PIT) – He has allowed more than three just once since June 12th, I have no idea how he isn’t on more teams.  He is easily the #1 spot start for Sunday especially with a favorable opponent.

Josh Collmenter (ARI v. SD) – I remain stunned at how little love he has gotten this year even as his sample of quality of work expands.  He is still too available in my opinion.  He has been really sharp since a flameout start to begin August allowing no more than two runs in any of his six subsequent starts.  Throw in a very favorable opponent and he is an easy auto-start.

James McDonald (PIT v. FLO) – Obviously recommending opponents against each other limits the amount of wins you could possibly get, but Vazquez also might be on a team in your league whereas McDonald isn’t as likely to be on one.  He hasn’t quite been as sharp as Vazquez of late, but he hasn’t given up more than three runs since August 5th.

 

All-In Picks: recommending only for team managers desperate to make an impact whether in their final day of their H2H battle or in the waning days of their roto league.

Jake Westbrook (STL v. ATL) – The Braves are reeling having lost 7 of 10 while Westbrook was really sharp his last time out including nine strikeouts.  It was the first time he struck out more than four since July 15th.

Zach Stewart (CHW v. CLE) – After two shellackings, he went & threw a one-hit shutout with nine strikeouts against Minnesota in his last outing.  The odd thing is that one of the shellackings was doled out by the Twins.  He has shown both his upside & downside.  Like the Braves, the Indians are 3-8 in their last 10.

Edinson Volquez (CIN @ COL) – First off he is starting in Coors Field which is enough to make this a Hail Mary pick, but also consider that he is returning from the minors where he was sent for poor performance.  However anyone with any knowledge of Volquez knows just how good he can be so it might worth taking the chance that he returns to the majors with a bang.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 09.8.2011

Fight for 15

I mentioned in part one of my top 15 starting pitchers for 2012 that deciding on the 15th guy was a bit of a task.  I had several guys who I felt could have reasonably been slotted there and eventually landed on Johnny Cueto.  There is no denying the fact that he hasn’t really earned his 2.05 ERA this year, as evidenced by his 3.87 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA.

That said, he is far from a shlub at the same time.  He has seen an 11% increase in his groundball rate to 53% with only some deterioration to his strikeout rate (down from 6.7 to 6.2 K/9).  In fact his strikeout rate has been up and down all season, but it was at a very impressive 8.1 per game over the last month.  The great part is that the uptick came without any damage to his groundball (held at 53%).

The 40-inning sample over the last month is small in the grand scheme, but I do believe Cueto can hold the groundball gains while also working his way into a consistent strikeout rate between 6.7 and 7.2.  I wasn’t merely blinded by the shiny ERA when I ranked him 15th, rather I believe in his talent and have been impressed in the starts of his I have seen this year.  That said, I stand by the fact that there were many candidates for the spot and I wanted to address them for those who were wondering.

Here they are in reverse order:

Jaime Garcia (STL) – It was more of a cursory thought to put him in at the 15-spot.  The quickness of the thought has nothing to do with the fact that he had a poor stretch in August.  If I was going to put him there, a bad month wouldn’t have dissuaded me, just as a great month wouldn’t elevate someone undeserving like Mark Buehrle into the discussion.

In the end, Garcia just didn’t stack up against a host of his peers.  He did have some modest gains on his breakout rookie season toting a near-3.0 K/BB while sustaining most of the 56% groundball rate we saw last year.  The WHIP is still problematic at 1.36, but the climb in hit rate might be linked to a worse infield defense for the Cards which they will hopefully address this offseason given their rotation.

Josh Beckett (BOS) – Beckett was easily identifiable as a regression candidate who in turn could be a fantasy star because of how much last year’s 5.78 ERA depressed his value.  He has exceeded even my wildest expectations with a 2.49 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 174 innings, but a lot of it has been his BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rates swinging all the way back to the opposite end of the spectrum this year.  For as unlucky as he was last year, he has been equally as lucky this year.

That said, the skills remain strong (8+ K/9 yearly saved 2006’s 7.0; K/BB below 2.6 just once in career) and as a part of the Boston Red Sox he should always have a shot at a nice win total as long as he stays healthy and makes 30+ starts.  But he is also a perpetual risk for at least a spell on the disabled list or a skipped start or two and his wildly inconsistent BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rates in the face of the solid skills make it hard to put him in the top 15.

C.J. Wilson (TEX) – Who had this one pegged?  Just as he appeared to be coming into his owner as an ace late inning reliever, it was announced that Wilson would shift to the rotation and become a full-time starter.  Few, if any, had high expectations for this experiment yet he put together an impressive 204-inning debut as a starter last year with lone wart being his league-leading 93 walks.  Alas many remained skeptical, myself included calling for a 4.00ish ERA, for various reasons.  Wilson made significant improvements across the board and he is now a strong option atop a fantasy staff, but at 30 he lacks both the skill and upside of top 15ers.  However, that is a more of a commentary on how strong the pitching pool is these days as opposed to a knock on Wilson.

Yovani Gallardo (MIL) – Often when you see a young flamethrower fanning one or more batters per inning, his walk rate is around four or five a game.  While he may have electric stuff that can fool even the best big leaguers, he rarely knows exactly where it is going himself resulting in plenty of free passes, too.  If this type of pitcher is to become a reliable frontline starter and reach his true potential, you will see that strikeout rate tick down yet remain strong, while the walk rate sees major improvement.

This profile explains Gallardo who saw his strikeout rate dip to 8.2 after marks of 9.9 and 9.7 in his first two seasons.  His walk rate has improved drastically year to year, too, starting at 4.6 in 2009 before dropping to 3.7 last year and a much more palatable 2.7 this year.  At 25, Gallardo hasn’t yet reached his ceiling and we could still see him jump another level or two.  He’s getting better, but the best is yet to come.

Shaun Marcum (MIL) – I have nicknamed him “The Anti-Booster” as he has seen his strikeout and walk rates both erode despite leaving the hardest division on the planet for the much cushier NL Central.  The losses have been marginal (0.3 K & 0.5 BB), but it still interesting to someone with his skill get away from the AL Beast and not experience a spike in performance.  Sure, his ERA improved over a half of a run, but that’s clearly artificial when you look at the complete picture.  He strikes me as someone who will chronically be underrated and while he may never have that transcendent season that would bring deserved respect, he will continue to be a strong #2 fantasy asset coming at the price of a #3 or at least at the very end of the #2s.

Ian Kennedy (ARI) – After showing last year why he was so hyped as a Yankee farmhand, Kennedy has shown incremental improvement in his skills, but monumental improvement in his results.  Flyballs and specifically the home runs that result from them were his big issue last year, but he sliced 5% off of his flyball rate this year and with that his HR/9 dropped by 25% to 0.9 per game.  He has no doubt advanced a bit in 2011, but he can’t quite be relied upon for a sub-3.00 ERA going forward just yet.  He might not even be the top choice on his team for 2012.

Daniel Hudson (ARI) – His season is all the more impressive when you consider that he had a 5.30 ERA on May 1st after he allowed three runs in seven innings against the Cubs.  Since then he has gone 157 strong innings with a 3.10 ERA still hitting some bumps in the road which is what you would expect from a 24-year old in his first full season in the majors.  Some fantasy managers might be upset with the loss of a full strikeout down to 6.9, but the savvier manager is happier about the sub-2.0 walk rate.  An 8% dip in flyball, 7% of which went directly to his groundball, is arguably the most impressive development for Hudson this year.  For now he simply doesn’t have the track record to merit a top 15 position just yet, but this is a growth stock that is definitely worth buying into for the immediate future.

Ricky Romero (TOR) – Despite the huge dip in ERA from 3.73 to 3.01, Romero has essentially been the same pitcher in 2010 and 2011.  The main differences in his season have been a 40-point drop in BABIP and a massive 11% jump in LOB%.  That LOB% jump more than covered his 3% in HR/FB resulting in the improved ERA.  I am still a huge fan of the 26-year old lefty and feel that he has plenty of growth potential going forward.

Whether he deserved it or not, the improved results have paid huge dividends especially since he was underrated coming into the season.  I mentioned in my SP Guide that he was being listed behind the likes of Trevor Cahill, Jhoulys Chacin and Jeremy Hellickson at ESPN and he has thoroughly outclassed all three with Hellickson being the only one anywhere near him in results thanks to a wholly undeserved 2.90 ERA (4.24 FIP, 4.51 xFIP & 4.42 SIERA).

Matt Garza (CHC) – I may have reacted like a jilted lover when it came to forecasting Garza for 2011.  After diving headfirst into the front seat of his bandwagon for 2010 and projecting an elite season, I was left cold and unimpressed by essentially a repeat season (0.04 ERA & 0.01 WHIP improvements) replete with a nearly two strikeout dip and a third straight year of declining groundball rate.

I was worried about the new flyball-heavy Garza heading into Wrigley Field, even in light of the inherent National League strikeout boost.  Two straight years of 1.1 or worse HR/9 and a rising flyball rate would spell trouble in the Windy City especially when combined with Garza’s fiery attitude.  But he changed.  He has seen a major uptick in strikeouts with a career high 9.3 mark, but most importantly his groundball rate skyrocketed up 11% to 46%, a career high for a full season, yielding career-best 3.52 ERA that isn’t even as low as it should be given how well he has pitched.

Career worst BABIP and LOB% rates have teamed up to keep his ERA nearly a half run higher than his components suggest (3.16 xFIP & SIERA).  He had displayed little variance in his year-to-year BABIP and LOB% during his first three full seasons which is why this year screams aberration.  If his strikeout and groundball rates aren’t also aberrations, he might finally be in line for that huge season I saw coning in 2010.

Zack Greinke (MIL) – His was the name I heard most when it came to that 15 spot or being included somewhere within the top 15.  I definitely understand it and he was on the list during various iterations.  I made the move to Cueto late leaving Greinke on the outside, but the more I look at it the more I think a change may be in the offing.  I didn’t just look at his ERA and slot him 16th, I am well aware of the fact that he has been much better than his 3.93 ERA.

All of his component skills scream a sub-3.00 ERA, but he has struggled with runners on for a second straight season and his four years of HR/FB fortune seems to have bit back hard all at once this season with a 14% mark.  In the end, 10.4 K/9 and 5.1 K/BB rates are downright nasty and they carry the day as he should definitely improve going forward just as did as the 2011 season wore on.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Top 15 | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 09.7.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 23

The selective approach to last week’s Trolling picks paid off for us as the 10 starters logged a healthy 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 3.5 K/BB rate.  That isn’t to say I wasn’t aiming for precision with my in-season picks, but the risk threshold has definitely been tightened as we wind the season down because there is less time to come back from implosions.

Monday was the holiday and then I couldn’t get it done before Tuesday & Wednesday day games because of the day job so here are picks for Thursday-Saturday.  Apologies for those of you who needed M-T-W picks.  I’m already working on Week 24 so I have it ready to go right away this weekend along with some Sunday picks on Friday or Saturday of this week.

THURSDAY:

Ivan Nova (NYY @ BAL) – Three straight 7 inning starts in which he allowed just five runs (2.14 ERA) and netted three wins.  In fact, he has won eight straight starts only one of which was anything close to bad (7 ER in 5.3 IP at KC).

Mike Minor (ATL @ NYM) – He carries some risk as he has been a bit inconsistent mixing in a few 4-5 ER starts in with really good ones.  The one constant has been his strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) so if that is a need for your team, he is an auto-start.

Cory Luebke (SD @ ARI) – I have been a fan of his all year, but there may be more risk than you want to take on if you’re protecting ratios.  Two things working against him are that his two starts against Arizona haven’t been very good (7 ER in 11 IP) and his last two starts (one of which was an Arizona start) haven’t been great (8 ER in 10 IP) and some speculate he may be hitting a wall.  I’ll stand firm as the strikeouts remain strong and I think it is more of a bump in the road than something due to fatigue.

 

FRIDAY:

Bud Norris (HOU @ WAS) – He is a perfect spot starter with an ERA nearly a full lower against the bottom feeders (3.44 against sub-.500 teams; 4.37 against better than .500 teams).  His strikeout rate of nearly one per inning remains enticing, too.

 

SATURDAY:

Edwin Jackson (STL v. ATL) – He has a 3.44 ERA with the Cardinals despite the 8 ER beatdown in Milwaukee in his second start with the ballclub.

Anibal Sanchez (FLO @ PIT) – Appears to be improving over his last four and opponent like the Pirates is a great opportunity to stay hot.

 

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Wednesday: 08.31.2011

Top 15 Starting Pitchers for 2012: 10-1

Continuing the top 15 for 2012, let’s go 10 to 1:

10. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels – While I was higher on his teammate Haren, I wasn’t down on Weaver by any stretch still ranking him 14th and believing almost entirely in his newfound strikeout ability.  Alas the strikeouts were a bit fraudulent (back down 7.5 K/9), but he has improved tremendously on his 2010 rate stats.  His league-best 2.28 ERA continues a three year trend of improvement while his 1.00 WHIP marks a fourth straight year of improvement.

Last year’s 3.01 ERA was greeted with a 3.32 xFIP and 3.15 SIERA suggesting he great, but not quite that great, but this year’s mark is met with great skepticism as shown by his 3.73 xFIP and 3.52 SIERA.  A 6% rise in LOB%, a 2% dip in BABIP and a 3% improvement in HR/FB rate have all combined to deliver the gaudy ERA figure.  He is on pace to finish top three among starting pitchers this year, but I don’t think it is sustainable so while I will remain high on him as a top 10 guy, I’m not sold as top 5.

9. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays – In each of his three full seasons, Price has improved his strikeout and walk rates reaching 8.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in his 191 inning so far this year. The 2007 #1 overall pick is panning out about as well as you could hope for a top pick.  In his first full season you saw the skills, but the results were so-so.  He bounced back with improved skills and great results, though they were a bit undeserved.  And finally this year his skills have ticked up yet again and the results are good, but looking at his xFIP & SIERA, they could be even better.

I have Price 9th, but I understand taking him a bit higher based on his potential for more because while the upcoming guys have unimpeachable track records, but they have plateaued a bit.  He has two and 2/3rds (threw 128 IP in 2009) seasons under his belt and his talent is unquestioned, but his age and lean track record land him below these upcoming veterans.

8. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels – Haren is kind of the forgotten ace these days.  Maybe it because he is boring as a 30-year old with absurdly strong skills and consistency.  He has gone 216 innings or more yearly since 2005 and he’s easily on pace to do the same again this year.  Outside of his debacle of a first half last year, he has posted a 3.33 ERA or better in four of the last five years.  Even if you include last year’s 3.91, he has still been an above average pitcher.  He is on pace to win his league’s K/BB title for the third time in four years (the “off” year was last year’s 4.0) by topping 5.0 with ease and hitting 5.9 in 2009 and 2010.

I love his reliability and lengthy track record.  Add in that he usually goes a cut below these guys he is included with and it is easy to be sold on Haren as your #1 pitcher.  The only downside is that despite logging no fewer than 33 starts in each of the last six years and on pace for a seventh, he has yet to top 16 wins despite how good he has been yearly.  Since this is a ranking of fantasy viability, wins matter and it is why I have him ninth, down two spots from his preseason rank.

7. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants – Remember when there was mass hysteria over Lincecum earlier this season?  Let me refresh your memory.  In a four start stretch from May 27th to June 11th, Lincecum pushed his ERA from 2.06 to 3.41 walking seven across the final two starts of that stretch and five during the outing just after the run.  Since then he has been one of baseball’s best with a 1.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 99 strikeouts in 93 innings.

He is backed by an anemic offense that caps his otherwise substantial fantasy value.  He won 18 during his first full season, but he hasn’t topped 16 since so they gaudy strikeout rate is merely putting him back on par with someone who can be relied on for wins yet with a slightly lesser strikeout rate.  However, he does have a 2.78 ERA and 10.1 K/9 in 850 innings over the last four seasons so I can deal with getting wins elsewhere.

6. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees – The definition of “workhorse”, Sabathia is about as bankable as a pitcher gets.  After a couple seasons of skills erosion, he has roared back with a huge 2011 including a full strikeout more than last year up to 8.6 K/9 and his best walk rate since 2008.  Sabathia’s penchant for going deep into games combined with the backing of a perennially prolific offense have led to win totals of 19, 21 and 18 (and counting) during his three seasons with the Yankees.  While he will likely opt out of his current contract to improve his financial standing, it will almost assuredly come from the Yankees leaving that win potential high.

5. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies – If you don’t like the Phillies for some reason, you might want to quit reading now because as you may or may not have noticed this is our first Phillie in the list, but hardly our last.  Like Lincecum, there was some panic surrounding Lee earlier this season.  After all, he ended April with an ERA of 4.18 and a month later it was only down to 3.94 after he closed the month allowing 6 ER in 5.3 innings.  That said, his skills were nearly flawless and I couldn’t recommend buying him enough.  Most fantasy managers weren’t selling, but those who were regretted it.

Since May 31st, he has gone 10-2 in 14 starts spanning 106 innings with a 1.78 ERA, 0.92 ERA, 8.6 K/9 and 5.1 K/BB.  Without the benefit of a “Since 5/31” leaderboard, I am willing to bet he is no worse than the second-best pitcher in baseball with only a certain Detroit Tiger possibly outclassing him in that timeframe.

4. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – When it comes to this top 5, there is virtually no separation between the group because it so hard to decide who is more great.  At this point it becomes personal preference.  I went back and forth between Kershaw and Lee for these two spots.  Do you prefer a proven track record or someone on the come up who could legitimately improve or possibly regress due to age and a lack of experience (by comparison)?

Kershaw has been one of just a few bright spots in LA this year with his excellent season on the mound.  His stuff is so filthy that it is hard to believe we have already seen the best of the 23-year old.  He is pacing toward his third straight season of 7.0 hits per game or less allowed including a 6.3 in 2009 that was MLB’s best.  He is also on track for his third straight season of more than a strikeout per inning, but this year he took a major step forward in control resulting in a 4.2 K/BB.

Unlike with hitters, I’m often willing to lean toward the older player when it comes to pitching, but you can’t deny how great Kershaw is at the ripe age of 23 and given that this is him merely meeting and exceeding the hype he got in the minors and early on in his major league career, I expect more greatness from the young southpaw in 2012.

3. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies – The Phorgotten Phillie.  A lot of the attention this year has gone to Lee and teammate Roy Halladay leaving Hamels somewhat neglected given how well he has done.  He is every bit an ace yet he is viewed as a cut below the other two.  I don’t quite see it that way and didn’t before the season, either.  I had Hamels fourth overall this March ahead of Lee and Jon Lester among others and he has backed that up with an excellent season.

In the second half of last year he displayed a never-before-seen groundball skill that I thought, if legit, could transfer him into a bona fide fantasy ace made better by the fact that he wouldn’t have fantasy ace cost as somewhere between the 13th and 17th arm off of the board.  His secondary numbers show that his 2.58 ERA is almost entirely deserved with a 2.90 xFIP and 2.80 SIERA backing up his entrance into fantasy acedom.

2. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers – There is no denying how great Verlander’s season has been and he has finally emerged as a true fantasy #1, but this is still just his first season with an ERA under 3.37 and WHIP under 1.16.  The strikeouts, the sheer volume of quality innings and the no-hit stuff literally every fifth day are incredible assets he does possess, but one fantastic year isn’t enough to remove the king from his perch atop the starting pitcher list.

His ability to go deep into just about every game he is in has allowed him to pile up 17+ wins in five of six seasons, but I want to see another season of consistently excellent outings before I give him the top spot.  As a diehard Tigers fan, I have long been aware of Verlander’s potential for a season like this, but I remained puzzled by how it continually eluded him.  He is finally having it and I wouldn’t be surprised if it is the start of a series of them.

1. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies – I don’t care if he is going to be 35 years old next year.  He was 34 this year and he is on track to put up his fourth straight sub-2.80 ERA season.  He has topped 1.4 BB/9 once since 2004 and hasn’t been above 1.3 in the last three years.  The strikeout boost everyone was expecting to come last year never really panned out, instead arriving this year as he upped his mark for the third straight year to 8.7 K/9 (the gains were incremental in 2009 and 2010).

He is getting older, there is no denying that fact, but you also can’t deny the fact that is somehow getting better at the same time.  He is already on pace to improve his strikeout, walk, home run and hit rates (as well as his WHIP) and there is an outside shot that he could actually improve on his 2.44 ERA from last year, too.

I can’t see any legitimate reason to remove him from the top spot when he continues to perform like the best pitcher in baseball.  Sure, he is 4th on ESPN’s Player Rater for SPs this year, but you don’t put a guy #1 expecting him to finish there yearly, rather you put a guy #1 because there is a damn good chance he will be the top guy and his floor is also significantly better than everybody else’s.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Top 15 | 3 Comments »

Monday: 08.29.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 22

Despite just four wins in 11 starts, the picks from last week went well.  All but three went 6+ innings and of the ones who didn’t, two didn’t allow any runs and the third won his game and struck out six batters.  In case you missed last week’s picks, I mentioned that as we approach starts and innings limits in leagues these picks will become more selective.

Obviously some teams are protecting ERA and WHIP and while it is hard to move them much this late in the year, one risky blowup can be costly.  Sure it is costly to have an 8 ER, 2 IP outing in June, too, but you have three-plus months to fix it.  Not only are we running out of time, but moving the needle on these rate stats is tough unless your league’s standings are incredibly tight.

If I do make any riskier than usual picks, I will make sure they are denoted so you can assess it based on your league and your standings.  I have one in mind which is why I even make this point in the first place.

TUESDAY:

Doug Fister (DET v. KC) – If you are in a fierce strikeouts race, I would pass on this one, but otherwise he has been golden since joining the Tigers.  Or maybe not.  He has notched 17 strikeouts in his last three starts (19.7 innings).  I still wouldn’t blindly trust a three start stretch over the rest of his career which shows him as a pitch to contact, control artist.  If you are looking for solid rates and a solid win potential, then make the move for Fister.

Javier Vazquez (FLO @ NYM) – If you are in a fierce strikeouts race, I would pounce on this one, but otherwise Vazquez has been an ERA and WHIP asset with wins in short supply as a part of the pathetic Marlins.  He has a 3.00 ERA and an 0.94 WHIP in 33 August innings.

WEDNESDAY:

Programming Note: This has nothing to do with spot starter picks, but Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren are going toe-to-toe in Seattle on Wednesday and it should be a great watch.

Ted Lilly (LAD v. SD) – He’s been on fire of late, especially in August (2.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP in 33 IP) so let’s ride the hot hand against a weak team.

Josh Collmenter (ARI v. COL) – I didn’t believe at first, but then he started missing some bats and the success was a lot more believable.  He has had some misses just as any pitcher will, but otherwise he has become a reliable mid-rotation arm.

THURSDAY:

Jacob Turner (DET v. KC) – This would be the risky selection for the week.  It’s a boom or bust pick, but the boom would include everything: strikeouts, 6-7 innings and a chance at a win.  It is merely his second MLB start so this pick isn’t for the faint of heart or the teams with tenuous holds on their ERA & WHIP spots.

Chien-Ming Wang (WAS @ ATL) – Some may find this one risky, but I think it’s a WYSIWYG type of pick.  He won’t strike many batters out, but he can help your ratios.

FRIDAY:

PASS – some potentials like Ivan Nova, Ross Detwiler & Aaron Harang, but all too risky for September

SATURDAY:

Mike Minor (ATL v. LAD) – I’m riding this train the rest of the way out.  The win and strikeout potential combined with the ratio floor not being too low is worth rolling out throughout September.  The only downside in this particular start is that it is against Clayton Kershaw which limits the win potential a bit.

Brandon McCarthy (OAK v. SEA) – Solid arm with a few bumps in the road, but up against a weak opponent at a friendly home park.

Anibal Sanchez (FLO v. PHI) – Another risk pick in addition to Turner.  His talent is immense, but he has struggled mightily since the break (5.05 ERA) despite a strikeout per inning and a 4.6 K/BB in 46 innings.

SUNDAY:

Kevin Slowey (MIN @ LAA) – Close out the week with one more riskbox.  I am a huge Slowey fan, but he has slowly (no pun intended… OK, it kinda was) worked his way back having only returned on August 19th.  The Yankees and Orioles knocked him around, but he dominated the White Sox.  The Angels don’t really scare me as an opponent, but with Slowey working out the kinks there is inherent risk with this start.  If you’re desperate in the final day of your H2H league, go for it.

Other Sunday Hail Marys for H2H Only – Randy Wells, Erik Bedard, Edwin Jackson and Freddy Garcia.  I would only recommend these guys if you need to make up ground in the last day of your H2H match.  Bedard and Jackson are Trolling regulars, but they have tough matchups which is why they are listed here instead of regular recommendations. 

—

I’ve got the top 10 pitchers of the 2012 top 15 left and another piece on starting pitchers near completion for later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Saturday: 08.27.2011

Top 15 Starting Pitchers for 2012: 15-11

Back in late June, I presented my first run at a top 15 for 2012 and as I looked back on the list two months later, I don’t hate it.  There will be changes in the next iteration, but I don’t think it was reactionary to the 2011 season through three months while at the same time accounting for some of the emerging stars from this season.  I will post a second run through of that list soon, but today I wanted to perform the same exercise with starting pitchers.

As we head into September, there is a lot of talk around a pitcher who might be an MVP candidate, not to mention ridiculously deep candidate pools for each league’s Cy Young.  The Year of the Pitcher, Part II has continued in earnest after a hot start to the season with each league lowering its as compared to last year.  As it stands right now, both leagues are toting sub-4.00 marks for the first time since 1992.

The American League’s tenuous grasp there at 3.98 makes it unlikely that the leagues will set 20-year lows, but at 3.98 and 3.85, respectively, there is a good chance the leagues will improve on last year’s 4.14 and 4.02 marks.  Better overall pitching mitigates the impression that some of the year’s surprising performances has made, but the environment can’t change the fact that the top level performances are incredibly stunning.

With a commitment to the fast start that has consistently eluded him (career 4.75 ERA in April), Justin Verlander has taken center stage as the league’s breakout superstar at starting pitcher.  His stuff has never been questioned, but it has been as sharp as ever and seemingly getting better as the season wears on.  Talk of him as an AL MVP candidate has started to pop up, though the list of worthy candidates might be too long for him to pull off the feat for the first time since 1992 when Dennis Eckersley inexplicably won both by a landslide despite deserving neither.  At least if Verlander did it, his case would be airtight for both.

In the National League, Roy Halladay has hardly ceded his perch atop the league checking in behind only Clayton Kershaw in most rankings, but the bar has been set so high for him that a 2.56 ERA/1.05 WHIP season with an improved strikeout rate (8.6, up from 7.9) and no change in his league-leading walk rate (1.1) has been more expected than impressive.  Make no mistake, he is still jaw-dropping and amazing, but Kershaw is right there matching him in innings (190 apiece) then besting him in ERA (2.51), WHIP (1.02), strikeouts (9.8) and wins* (16 to 15).

*Since we’re talking about fantasy value, wins matter.  I’m not using them to say Kershaw is, has been or will be a better pitcher, but the miniscule edge does add to his lead in overall fantasy value. 

As with my top 15 overall players for 2012, I don’t plan on overreacting to anything we have seen in 2011 counter to a player’s history.  They will be credited for it, of course, just not overly so.  An example of this would be Ian Kennedy.  He ranks 12th on ESPN’s Player Rater among starting pitchers and while I was high on him this year (ranking him 41st and in tier 2), I still undershot the mark.  His significant flyball tendencies combined with a park conducive to home runs had me feeling he’d be good, but not great.

He’s been great.  In part due to the fact that he cut his HR/FB rate from 10.8% last year to 9.0% this year.  His xFIP of 3.62 and SIERA of 3.48 are more in line with what I had him down for and as such, he will be ranked accordingly and not in this top 15 for 2012.  So who actually made the first cut?

15. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds – His 2.03 ERA has been remarkably impressive, but he hasn’t backed it with skills conducive to such a mark.  However, I firmly believe he has the talent to do consistently post a mid-3.00 or lower ERA.  This year he has had a significant spike in groundball rate (53%) combined with a barrage of good fortune (5.6% HR/FB rate & .226 BABIP) leading to the shiny ERA that is nearly two runs lower than his xFIP and SIERA.

His hefty groundball rate earns some of the HR/FB and BABIP goodness, but not that much.  Beyond that, his strikeout rate has dipped from 6.7 to 5.8 while his walk rate ticked up to 2.9 per game.  He still has strikeout stuff (as evidenced by his 7.2 K/9 in the last month) but he is learning how to combine it with his newfound groundball abilities.  If he can combine the two, he could legitimately acquire an ERA around this year’s 2.03.

I will admit right away that there were several candidates for the 15-spot so I wouldn’t be surprised if Cueto is bumped out in subsequent iterations.  That said, he has definitely improved his stock.  I will know more after I watch more games of Cueto and the other contenders this offseason, for now he gets the nod.

14. Matt Cain, San Francisco – He continues to significantly out-produce his xFIP totals, but it’s not like his peripherals are a complete mess, either.  His dwindling home run rate is something to behold bottoming out at a barely-visible 3.9% this year (down from 7.4% last year and having never topped 8.4%).

His strikeout rate has been remarkably steady since 2007 fluctuating between 7.1 and 7.7 in the five year period while his walk rate is on a three year decline since 2008.  His groundball rate has climbed to a career-best 41% this year, an interesting development if it sticks.  He has already notched six strong years under his belt yet he will be just 27 years old in 2012.

13. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox – If his 2011 feels like a disappointment, it is only because it seems like everyone had him as their preseason favorite for American League Cy Young and he has “only” been the 11th best pitcher in his league according to the ESPN Player Rater.

When compared against more realistic expectations, he has remained an excellent fantasy option.  His ERA peaked after a June 7th start when he gave up three in six innings and bumped it up to 3.98, but since then he has posted a 2.23 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 in 73 innings of work.

12. James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays – This was my guy for 2011, I loved his prospects to pay huge dividends coming off of an abysmal seasons results-wise yet toting a rock solid skill set ripe for a major comeback.  As someone who never jumps on the superstar pitchers in snake drafts because of their cost, I rely on Shields types to make up ground and he did not disappoint.

In fact, he impressed beyond even my lofty expectations.  It’s no fluke, either.  His skills remain elite and he might finally put together a few consecutive seasons commensurate with those skills.  The only thing that might change for 2012 is his zip code.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rays deal him.  I’m not sure any destination would remove him from the top 15 while a favorable move might bump him up a spot or two.

11. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners – For anyone wondering what’s “wrong” with Hernandez, and there has been talk of it on podcasts, radio shows and in articles at various sites, I’d answer with a resounding “nothing!”.  His ERA has risen more than a run from 2.27 last year to 3.37 this year, but his base skills have been nearly identical.  His strikeout rate has actually bumped up from 8.4 to 8.8 while his walk rate has moved up a mere 0.3 to 2.8 this year.

His xFIP totals the last two years are almost exactly the same.  Last year he was at 3.14 and this year he is at 3.16, so looking only at his ERA and WHIP as compared to last year and trying to squeeze a narrative about how much the Mariners’ lack of success is wearing him down is foolish.  They were god-awful last year, too, and he had an amazing season.  He has been the same, only a little less fortunate.  The only reason he is down here is because that team is so pathetic.  Predicting wins is very difficult, but it has become quite clear that they are far less plentiful for pitchers in Seattle.

I’ll have 10-1 up next.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Top 15 | 2 Comments »

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