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Wednesday: 04.27.2011

Minor Leaguers in Fantasy Baseball, Part 1

The upcoming rookie class in the Kansas City Royals farm system has a chance to be historic given its abundance of blue-chip star power.  In a way, it is already historic after placing nine prospects in Baseball America’s preseason Top 100 list.  Coverage of the minor leagues is growing exponentially year over year and knowledge of the next crop or even next, next crop can give you an edge in fantasy baseball in many different ways. That is important in an era where edges are evaporating left and right.

The easiest way is of course loading your supplemental minor league roster with future stars and waiting for them to emerge.  That sounds easy enough, but it doesn’t always pan out so smoothly unless you can predict the future.  Another not-so-easy issue when it comes to prospects is the handling of them in trades.  How much is potential really worth?  If a team that is building for the future offers you some useful pieces for the 2011 run in exchange for your top 10 guys, do you pull the trigger?

One of the ills of the fantasy community I speak of a lot here is the desire to have the shiny new toy to the detriment of their team whether overspending in an auction or overdrafting in a snake draft.  That affliction is only likely to maintain or even get worse after the 2010 season.

FIRST YEAR PHENOMS

Last year introduced a veritable throng of rookies to the fantasy landscape who made a major impact on races everywhere.  Seven different rookies popped more than 15 home runs (Mike Stanton 22, Tyler Colvin 20, Gaby Sanchez 19, Ike Davis 19, Jason Heyward 18, Buster Posey 18, and Pedro Alvarez 16) , 14 in all reached double digits while eight swiped 10+ bags half of whom topped 15 (Austin Jackson 27, Jose Tabata 19, Ian Desmond 17, Roger Bernadina 16).  There were 11 batters who hit .280 or better in 200+ plate appearances.  Of those, eight had more than 300 plate appearances (Jackson, Starlin Castro, Neil Walker, Posey, Tabata, Chris Johnson, Danny Valencia, Jon Jay and Florida’s Logan Morrison was close at 287).

On the pitching side, we had a 40-save closer (Neftali Feliz), a 13-game winner (Jaime Garcia) nearly 100 strikeouts and a sub-2.00 ERA from a non-closing reliever (Jonny Venters) and six guys with 12+ starts and ERAs at or below 3.50 (Daniel Hudson 2.45, Garcia 2.70, Stephen Strasburg 2.91, Madison Bumgarner 3.00, Jhoulys Chacin 3.28 and Travis Wood 3.51 [cheated a smidge there]).

EMERGING TALENT

And that is just a sampling of the first year players making their mark on the game last year.  There were several other strong performances in one category or another that were instrumental to their fantasy team’s success.

If last year is being dubbed “Year of the Pitcher”, then the subtitle has to be “…and the Rookie” as the overall impact of freshmen was historically awesome.  In other words, it shouldn’t be an expectation year-to-year.  Especially because identifying who will make the rookie impact is no easy feat. 

Just looking at the 25 names I mentioned as superlatives from last year, nine were in the top 20 of Baseball America’s preseason top 100 (including six of the top nine), but the highest rated of the remaining 16 was 62nd (Davis) and 11 didn’t make the list.

To be continued…

This is part one of a series on minor leaguers and their place in fantasy baseball.  This is just an appetizer looking back at last year’s crop, but could that amazing success cloud our judgment of rookies going forward?  Tomorrow I will take a look back at an older draft class to see how it has panned out.  What can we learn from it and how will it help us today as we contemplate offers from leaguemates for the Mike Trouts, Julio Teherans and Jesus Monteros of the world?

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Prospects | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 04.25.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 4 Monday-Friday

As we inch near putting our first month of the season into the books, some of the shinier waiver wire gems will start to get picked up permanently, but in the league sizes where this strategy works best, there will always be someone out there worth playing.

In the week 3 results post, I recommended rostering Brandon McCarthy full-time (which is of course dependent on who you would have to cut).  Some other previous spot starter recommendations that are likely worth holding onto in most formats include Brandon Beachy and Scott Baker.  That said, they still have crazy low ownership percentages at the major outlets and as such, they will still be included in these columns when appplicable.

While all three may be in owned your league, there are plenty of leagues where all three are available.  That is why I try to include a pair of arms on a given day whenever possible.  I won’t force it by picking a complete shlub I don’t believe in, but on most 15 game days there are a pair of worthwhile pickups.

Let’s see what week 4 is offering us.

TUESDAY:

McCarthy (OAK @ LA) – Little mystery here as I said I was going to keep recommending him until he isn’t so widely available.  He wasn’t great in his first start at Toronto where he allowed four in eight innings striking out just two, but his three starts since have gotten better and better with rising game scores of 57, 68 and 75.

Tyler Chatwood (LA v. OAK) – Picking on the 24th-ranked offense in baseball in terms of runs scored and team OPS more so than I am endorsing Chatwood.  There are more skilled options out there (Gavin Floyd & Marco Estrada), but they are facing two of baseball’s best offenses in the Yankees and Reds, respectively.

WEDNESDAY:

Derek Holland (TEX v. TOR) – A bad inning in each of his last two starts has inflated Holland’s ERA and made him look worse than he has pitched.  Last time out against Kansas City was his own fault, but before that it was his idiot manager leaving him out there way too long.  Ron Washington really is the dumbest manager in baseball.  Make no mistake that they made the World Series in spite of him, not because of him.  He should have never sent Holland out in the 8th in New York on that Saturday start.  Completely idiotic.  Sorry, kind of got off on a tangent there… I’m sure everyone realizes Washington is a terrible tactical manager.  Holland is well on his way to putting together a very strong season.  Again, it really depends what the construction of your team is and how you built your staff at the draft, but there are likely a lot of scenarios where Holland is worth keeping permanently.

Bartolo Colon (NYY v. CHW) – This isn’t just a case of picking on the White Sox, who are struggling mightily at the dish, but Colon is actually throwing the ball really well so far.  His skills support the 3.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, so take a shot on Big Fat Bartolo Colon (nicknamed by ESPN’s Matthew Berry) at home.

THURSDAY:

Baker (MIN v. TB) – His lack of ownership is actually pretty astounding to me.  If you don’t want to buy in on Beachy because he is a rookie or McCarthy because he has been so injury-hampered in his career, I get it, but what is everyone waiting for with Baker?

FRIDAY:

Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS v. SEA) – Even if you don’t believe in what he has done the last two outings, it is hard not to think he can keep it up for at least one more start when he gets a chance to face the Mariners.

Jason Hammel (COL v. PIT) – Hammel is improving start-to-start and now draws the Pirates, who have underwhelmed offensively to say the least.  Hammel’s strikeout rate hasn’t been great at 5.3 K/9 on the season, but with nine in his last two starts (spanning 12.7 innings), he is starting to miss more bats. Pittsburgh’s 177 strikeouts, 3rd-highest in baseball, should only accelerate Hammel’s improvement.

Weekend picks will be out later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | 4 Comments »

Sunday: 04.24.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 Results

Just drove back from visiting the family for Easter (5+ hour drive) so I’m a bit wiped out.  Thankfully, I don’t have any plays for Mondays games so I’m holding over the Tuesday-Friday recommendations until Monday.  I need sleep.  I did have time to put together the Week 3 results, though.  Let me start by saying that Fausto Carmona will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever be picked as a spot starter again.  I don’t care if he’s facing the kids of the blind elementary school in your neighborhood, I’d rather recommend Javier Vazquez throwing on 1 day rest in Yankee Stadium against a team of MLB All-Stars.  I crush that guy for the garbage that he is and when I finally buy in just a shred, he goes back to being his Hefty Cinch Sack self.  Unbelievable.

Without him polluting the numbers, the results were still underwhelming as the collective ERA would have been just below 4.00 with a WHIP topping 1.30 and a strikeout rate failing to reach even 6.0 K/9.  With his six runs and 11 baserunners in five innings shellacking, things were much worse as you might have guessed.

A mixed bag for sure as it took until Thursday to even notch a win.  As I doubt anyone actually picks up every single one of these guys, I hope you were lucky enough to get at least a couple of the six worthwhile gems within the bunch.  I know the results won’t always be like Week 2’s 3.08 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but I’m definitely hoping for more good than bad as I’m not just throwing darts here.  Even with the down strikeout rate, at least the group still managed a 2.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Gem of the Week:

Oakland’s Brandon McCarthy is the GotW as he should be picked up permanently in all formats assuming he hasn’t been already.  His first start was the worst of his four and it was hardly awful as he went eight allowing four, but striking out just two.  Since then he has allowed just three runs in 22 innings striking out 18 and walking just a pair.  He’s got the talent, defense, home ballpark and health to finally pay dividends on the early career promise  that earned him the 49th ranking in Baseball America’s Top 100 list back in 2005.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 04.21.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 The Weekend

The picks recommended are doing pretty well so far this week off the top of my head, especially tonight as Brandon McCarthy and Chris Capuano did some great work.  Here are the weekend picks:

SATURDAY:

Brandon Morrow (TOR  v. TB) – This isn’t one of the official picks because it will be the rare league that he is available on the wire, but just in case he is, I strongly recommend picking him up regardless of format.  Well, except NL-Only, I guess.

Dillon Gee (NYM v. ARI) – He looked pretty good against Atlanta in his season debut and he draws the D’Backs at home this weekend.  I don’t think he will overwhelm, but another good start is definitely a strong possibility.  His peripherals were pretty good in 161 innings at AAA-Buffalo last year, but gopheritis (1.3 HR/9) kept his ERA near 5.00.  He registered more than a strikeout per inning with fewer than 2.5 walks per game.  Very intriguing profile.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE @ MIN) – His Opening Day thrashing is what has his ERA still pushing near 5.00 (7 ER in 6.7 IP), but since then he has three straight quality starts totaling 19.3 innings of 3.26 ERA work with 15 strikeouts.  He’s a guy I liked a lot before the season started and nothing has dissuaded me through four starts.

SUNDAY:

Randy Wolf (MIL v. HOU) – I understand that the standard league at most of the big outlets is pretty shallow, but what does a guy have to do to get some love?  OK, I get it if you weren’t diving in headfirst after a 10-strikeout performance against the Pirates, but he followed it up with six shutout innings and five more strikeouts against Philadelphia.  He’s gone 6+ in three of his four starts and registered five Ks in his three starts apart from the huge 10-strikeout game.  I’m definitely betting on him to stay hot against Houston.

Sam LeCure (CIN @ STL) – I think his start to the season has gone relatively unnoticed as he’s available in a ton of leagues.  He started with back-to-back good starts against Houston and in San Diego so competition has fueled him a bit and Arizona definitely roughed him up at home with four bombs (5 ER in 5.3 IP), but I like the 4.3 K/BB rate powered by nearly a strikeout per inning (17 in 17.1 IP).  The Cardinals will be a tough test, but he’s in St. Louis as opposed to his homer-friendly home ballpark so I like the gamble.

Look for the week’s results and the week 4 picks on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 04.17.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 Monday-Friday

Spotty internet access as I awaited my setup to be transferred from my old apartment made for a spotty and abbreviated version of what I intend to become a weekly staple with the spot starter recommendations.  In a moment, I will unveil the list of week three recommendations as well as how the week two pickups performed, but first a bit more about the goal behind these recommendations.

The idea is that there is enough useful pitching on the waiver wire of a large swath of leagues (generally, 10-14 team mixers) that you can play the matchups with one or two spots in the backend of your rotation and get some very quality work out the spots instead of sticking it out with a run of the mill third or fourth starter.

Cory Schwartz and Mike Siano over MLB.com’s Fantasy 411 popularized the phrase “pitch or ditch” for this strategy.  You will also hear it called streaming or spot starting.  I am not for a second pretending like I created this strategy, I am merely offering my solutions on the best way to maximize it.  Let’s see how last week’s picks worked out:

Not too bad on the whole as only one of the nine gave up more than three runs (Brandon Beachy) and he softened the blow by striking out eight.  Of course he had to make up for Jeff Francis’ lame one strikeout in six and a third innings of work.  If there is one thing that sticks out as less than desirable, it’s the two wins in nine starts, but you can’t chase wins and a lot of these are available because they aren’t on the high profile teams that would generally be more conducive to wins.

Who’s on tap for week 3?

MONDAY:

Chris Tillman (BAL v. MIN) – He has had an uneven start to the season with a dominating six inning no-hit effort against Tampa Bay followed by two poundings at the hands of the Tigers and Yankees.  The best medicine is a shot against the league’s worst offense in the midst of getting used to being without their best player.  They weren’t very good with Joe Mauer and it would be quite a shock if they were without him.

Travis Wood (CIN v. PIT) – Wood’s skills have remained intact from last year which is to say they are pretty good and facing the anemic Pirates should only accentuate them.  The fly in his ointment remains a severe flyball rate in a terrible park for such an affliction.  He was extremely lucky when it came to home runs last year (6.3 HR/FB) and he’s been even luckier this year (4.5%) so while I like him in this favorable matchup, I wouldn’t stick with him beyond that.

TUESDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. HOU) – A 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio powered by nearly eight strikeouts per game coupled with a 51% groundball rate is enough for me to remain optimistic in Niese despite a 6.88 ERA.  He is getting tagged by a 56% LOB% and 14% HR/FB rate so a date with the lowly Astros is welcomed by Niese and owners of his services.  Depending on who you cut for him, this may be someone to hang onto going forward.

Phil Coke (DET @ SEA) – Through two starts totaling 13.7 innings, Coke has allowed just two runs.  The six hits allowed are definitely a plus while the six walks are neither good nor bad.  In his debut start against Kansas City, he struck out seven, but followed that up with just two in seven innings against Oakland.  So we are left wondering what kind of strikeout capability he will offer as a starter.  The Mariners strikeout 2nd-most in the American League, but they are also tied for the most walks in baseball.  It’s a terrible lineup in a favorable park, so Coke should be a nice play here (and in his next start when he draws the Mariners at home).

WEDNESDAY:

Bud Norris (HOU @ NYM) – He worked out well last week so let’s hit the well again.  He has improved start to start and posted strikeout totals of 7-6-7 in the process.  This is a very talented young arm who could become a permanent asset for fantasy owners sooner than later.

Philip Humber (CHW @ TB) – Picking on the Rays again who Humber already thwarted back on April 9th allowing a run in six innings with four strikeouts en route to a win.  This is purely a hot streak/matchup play as I don’t like Humber much going forward.

THURSDAY:

Brandon McCarthy (OAK @ SEA) – To drive home the point about not chasing wins, the A’s will face Felix Hernandez during this start, but I still really like McCarthy.  Like Norris, he has improved start to start (all of which came against teams much better than Seattle) yet his ownership rate remains very low.  He could definitely become a long-term hold going forward so you might want to his secure his services sooner than later if you have the spot available.

Chris Capuano (NYM v. HOU) – He just can’t stay this unlucky, especially against a bad team like the Astros.  He’s getting groundballs and strikeouts while limiting walks, but his BABIP is nearly .400 (.385) and over 20% of his flyballs have left the yard leaving him with an ugly 61% LOB%.  Those numbers begin their correction with this start.

FRIDAY:

Fausto Carmona (CLE @ MIN) – Many of you may know that I’m not a fan of Carmona at all, but he’s done some impressive work in his last two starts (v. BAL, @LA) against better teams than the Twins including 11 strikeouts over 14.7 innings which is high for him.  He’s still inducing a crapton of groundballs, too.  He gets hot in stretches and after a horrific Opening Day starts (10 ER in 3 IP) he’s allowed four runs in 21.7 innings (the other start was against BOS), so ride the wave.

Jo-Jo Reyes (TOR v. TB) – Even with a small sample size, his .438 BABIP is kind of unbelievable.  It has definitely fueled his 6.75 ERA, but I like that he’s still striking out nearly a batter per inning (12 in 13.3 IP) and maintaining a 1:1 groundball/flyball ratio.  I hate to keep picking on Tampa Bay, but until they get Evan Longoria back and/or sort out their lineup woes, it will continue to happen.

I will give out the Saturday and Sunday picks midweek as those are going to be the repeat starters and I’d like to see the first starts of those guys before making another decision on them.   Plus it guards against injury that may occur in those initial starts.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

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Friday: 04.15.2011

Trolling the Wire: The Weekend

Wrapping up the week on Spot Starters, here is who I like today and through the weekend:

FRIDAY:

Chris Narveson (MIL v. Washington) – Narveson has been brilliant this year striking out more than a batter per inning and toting a 0.00 ERA through his first two starts.  He can’t really be any better, but I see no reason he can’t continue to excel matching legitimate skills with a favorable matchup in Washington.  With his first two starts, his ownership rate is definitely on the rise, but some leagues still aren’t hot to this hidden gem.

Kyle Lohse (STL v. Los Angeles) – Lohse is well on his way to recapturing the magic of 2008 when he went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 200 innings having netted a 3.00 ERA over 15 innings in his first two starts amassing 10 strikeouts with just a single walk.  Even more importantly, he has a ridiculously strong 58% groundball rate which could be the driving force to a resurgent season.  Today he draws the lowly Dodgers who you may think are doing well enough because of Matt Kemp’s excellent start and their passable 6-7 record, but even with Kemp they have a paltry .679 team OPS.

SATURDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. Tampa Bay) – He has some interesting numbers in his stat line so far this year.  He has an uncharacteristically high 4.9 BB/9 (well away from his 2.1 career mark), an 82% LOB% which is about 10% above league average and generally helps a guy’s ERA, but not when you have a 3.3 HR/9 rate!!!  That is just absurd, even for Baker who struggles with the long ball.  Exactly 1/3rd of his flyballs are leaving the yard at this point.  I’m willing to bet all three of those numbers will come down and while the LOB% dropping isn’t necessarily helpful, the evening out of the other two will hack several runs off of his 6.55 ERA.  The best remedy for a rough start is drawing the Longoria-less Rays.

Jeff Niemann (TB v. Minnesota) – Like his opponent, Niemann has some odd figures through two starts with a similar 3.1 HR/9 rate matched with an ugly BABIP (.344) and LOB% (55%).  His strikeout-to-walk rate of 1.7 is less than impressive as his strikeout rate of 5.2 sits well below his 6.5 career mark.  An even better remedy than Niemann facing his own team is facing the now Mauer-less Twins.  They weren’t any good with him and without him they can’t possibly be better.  It’s odd to favor both guys in a matchup since at best you can only get one win, but I don’t chase wins.  Plus not everyone plays BOTH guys I recommend, so pick your favorite between (I’d lean Baker) the two and enjoy.

SUNDAY:

Jeff Francis (KC v. Seattle) – With a groundball rate even better than Lohse’s (57%), Francis is off to a great start through three starts in his first tour of the American League.  He doesn’t offer overwhelming strikeout totals as his 5.7 K/9 is about what you should expect across a full season, but he could receive a boost facing the Mariners, who strikeout 3rd-most in the American League.

That’s it for Sunday.  I don’t want to recommend someone I don’t really believe in just to have 2 guys.

I should have the full week 3 spot starters out this weekend.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Friday: 04.15.2011

Cliff Lee’s Amazing Game

I don’t think even the most over-reactionary of fantasy owners had any major concerns about Cliff Lee after his second start where he managed just 3.3 innings allowing six runs on 10 hits and a walk in Atlanta.  Seeing that line for your ace is never fun, but every pitcher takes some beatings over the course of 32 starts.  Even Lee’s teammate Roy Halladay gave up six runs in two separate outings last year.

Just in case anyone was worried about Lee in the slightest, his performance on Thursday alleviated any and all fears a million fold.  He put together an effort so ridiculous that it has only been done 11 times (2 of which were no-no’s) in baseball history (or at least the history tracked by Baseball-Reference).  A complete game 3-hit effort with 12 strikeouts and a walk is excellent enough as is, but when you factor in that Lee performed the feat in just 99 pitches, it’s kind of mind-blowing.

Lee’s control has never been in doubt and it was hyperactive last night with 74 strikes out of the 99 pitches.  He just dismantled the Nationals, that’s all there is to it.  He induced four or more swinging strikes on four of his five offerings (two & four seam fastballs, cutter and curveball) with the curveball generating five swings and misses on just seven thrown!

He had three single digit pitch innings (2nd, 4th and 6th) and topped 12 just twice (3rd w/15 and 8th w/16).  It probably won’t get the fanfare it deserves because it’s not a perfect game or a no-hitter, but it’s a brilliant effort without question.  As I mentioned before, Lee’s sub-100 pitch complete game with 10+ strikeouts has happened just 10 other times and only one other matched his 12 strikeouts (Sandy Koufax, 1964).  Lee’s 74 strikes were 2nd to Terry Mullholland’s 76 which came in one fewer pitch during his 98-pitch gem back in 1991.

Here is the list in full thanks to Baseball-Reference.com’s Play Index (sorted newest to oldest):

Rk Player Date Tm Opp Rslt App,Dec IP H R ER BB SO HR Pit Strks GmSc
1 Cliff Lee 4/14/2011 PHI WSN W 4-0 SHO9 ,W 9 3 0 0 1 12 0 99 74 92
2 Chris Carpenter 9/7/2009 STL MIL W 3-0 SHO9 ,W 9 1 0 0 2 10 0 99 64 93
3 Chris Carpenter 6/14/2005 STL TOR W 7-0 SHO9 ,W 9 1 0 0 1 10 0 95 68 94
4 Roy Halladay 5/29/2005 TOR MIN W 4-0 SHO9 ,W 9 2 0 0 0 10 0 99 72 93
5 Roy Oswalt 4/16/2004 HOU MIL W 2-0 SHO9 ,W 9 3 0 0 0 10 0 94 66 91
6 Mike Mussina 5/1/2001 NYY MIN W 4-0 SHO9 ,W 9 3 0 0 0 10 0 99 69 91
7 Curt Schilling 4/10/2001 ARI LAD W 2-0 SHO9 ,W 9 2 0 0 0 10 0 93 73 93
8 David Cone 7/18/1999 NYY MON W 6-0 SHO9 ,W 9 0 0 0 0 10 0 88 68 97
9 Terry Mulholland 9/18/1991 PHI MON W 1-0 SHO9 ,W 9 2 0 0 0 10 0 98 76 93
10 Tim Belcher 8/30/1991 LAD CHC W 2-0 SHO9 ,W 9 4 0 0 0 10 0 99 70 89
11 Sandy Koufax 6/4/1964 LAD PHI W 3-0 SHO9 ,W 9 0 0 0 1 12 0 97 68 98

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | 3 Comments »

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Thursday: 04.14.2011

Prospect Spotlight: Keyvius Sampson

We already know that anyone pitching in San Diego’s PETCO is instantly a bit better thanks to the spacious dimensions of the yard.  The Padres are grooming some legitimately talented arms that can pitch anywhere to the point that the Petco Push will make them nearly unbeatable.  Most recently it has been ace Mat Latos while Simon Castro and Casey Kelly are rocketing through the minor leagues, but one of the prospect we might soon see destroying hitters regardless of venue is Keyvius Sampson.

The diminutive (6’0) 20-year old is currently a second tier prospect in the Padres organization, but his talent has top 100 potential.  The 2009 4th round pick out of high school struggled with injuries in his first full season last year pitching just 43 innings in 10 starts.  However, he did impress in the limited sample with mid-90s velocity (sits 91-93, touches 95) that drove his gaudy 12.1 K/9.  The secondary stuff is behind the heater right now which is why he’s an org prospect right now as opposed to a top 100 guy, but it’s on the come.

He has good feel for both a curveball and changeup so while neither is terribly consistent just yet, at least both are in the arsenal as opposed to needing that third pitch which would leave him on the fence between starter and reliever.  Some reports have the changeup a bit ahead of the curve, but then others suggest the curve is a bit better.

So far in 2011, it would appear that the three pitches are firing on all cylinders as he has put together two truly excellent starts amassing 19 strikeouts in 11 shutout innings walking just one and allowing a mere two hits.  His first outing included six no hit innings with 10 Ks while Wednesday’s was nearly as impressive with five innings of 2-hit ball with nine Ks and the lone walk he’s allowed.  His next hurdle is proving health.

Elbow soreness got him shutdown last year and it likely stemmed from a tear in his right labrum, but so far he looks 100% healthy.  I think the Padres would just like to see him stay healthy and spend the season in A-Fort Wayne of the Midwest League as opposed to worrying about a promotion as the next step if the California League where pitchers routinely get destroyed regardless of talent.

If he can pitch a full season in A-ball and continue to excel, then he might be in line to skip High-A and go straight to AA-San Antonio for 2012.  The Padres did just that with Latos and Castro, allowing them to skip the pitcher’s hell that is the Cal League.

He is one to keep on the radar from a fantasy standpoint, but this white-hot start is definitely worth noting.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Player Focus, Prospects, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

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Friday: 04.8.2011

Trevor Cahill’s Early Strikeout Surge

Coming into the 2011 season, I had some reservations about Trevor Cahill.  Specifically I was worried that his excellent 2010, namely the 2.97 ERA, would inflate his value higher than I was willing to pay in light of the fact that his skill set didn’t necessarily portend such a gaudy ERA.  He was below the recommended 2.0 K/BB rate at 1.9 thanks to a below average 5.4 K/9 rate.

Instead of missing bats, he utilized his spacious home park (2.18 ERA in 103 home innings) and strong defense (56% groundball rate and .236 BABIP) en route to his surprise season.  Alas Cahill was once the 11th-best prospect in baseball according Baseball America (2009) after an impressive minor league career filled with strikeouts (9.9 K/9 in 247 innings).  I mentioned in my AL West Preview that though Cahill was my regression pitcher, don’t be surprised if he shows some growth and starts missing more bats commensurate with his minor league track record.

Through two starts we are seeing a lot of strikeouts from Cahill with mixed results.  In his first game, he struck out eight but lasted just 4.7 innings (because of pitch count) walking four and leaving with a no decision.  Then yesterday, he continued the strikeout parade fanning seven in eight very impressive innings in Toronto.  Is there a change in Cahill’s approach or are we just seeing two of his better strikeout games early in the year?

Remember that even last year he had a handful of strong strikeout games, including a back-to-back pair in June where he struck out seven St. Louis Cardinals and followed it up by fanning 10 Pittsburgh Pirates.  The importance of that is to suggest that we could just be seeing his best strikeout work at the front end of the season as opposed to the beginning of a trend.

Having watched both of his starts, one thing that has stuck out to me that says we might be seeing legitimate growth is the emergence of his curveball, especially yesterday in his duel with Ricky Romero.  Four of his seven strikeouts came on swings & misses of the curveball.  Only two of his eight in the season opener came on swinging curves, but across the two starts it has been a significantly improved pitch.

Coming into the big leagues, the curveball was supposed to be his strikeout pitch according to his scouting reports, but it didn’t play out that way during his first two seasons.  In 2009 he threw it just 102 times (3%), 28% of which were swung at and just 7% of those missed altogether.  Last year he threw the curve 414 times (14%) generating a swing 30% of the time, the lowest of any of his five offerings.  Batters missed 11% of the curve swings; improved results, but hardly in line with what was expected of him as he progressed through the minors.

Early on, it seems he is set on improving his success with the pitch and looking to use it a lot more.  In the first outing he threw it 23% of the time inducing swings 54% of the time, 13% of which were missed.  As I mentioned, only two of his strikeouts came with the curve, but the increased usage was noteworthy.  Yesterday, he took another step forward with it throwing it 31% of the time, 52% of which were swung at and 18% of those missed and another 18% fouled off.

Going back to that pair of strikeout-heavy games from 2010, we see that Cahill was not reliant upon the curveball to amass those 17 punch outs across two starts.  In the first against St. Louis, just two of the seven came on swinging curves.  The same was true in the 10-strikeout effort against Pittsburgh giving him four in 17 (24%) as opposed to his six in 15 (40%) for the first two starts of this year.  In fact in the two interleague games he only threw 30 curveballs (nearly half the total of what he’s thrown so far this year) out of 203 pitches (15%) only 1/3rd of which were swung at and eight of those were missed entirely.

So where does all of this leave us?  With just two games of data, it would be foolish to make definitive statements about Cahill’s strikeout ability, but in the small sample we are seeing a change in approach that marries well with past history from the minor leagues.  He is just 23 this year so it isn’t at all out of the question to expect some growth, especially with his pedigree as a prospect.  From a fantasy perspective, I would be heartened by the change if I owed him, but if I was in need of strikeouts I wouldn’t rush out to trade for him just yet.

I will continue to watch Cahill closely and see if the curveball usage and its ability to induce swings & misses is an early season aberration or true change in skill making him more of a strikeout pitcher and thus a much greater fantasy baseball asset.  I will post an update on Cahill in about a month.

Resources:

Baseball-Reference.com

TexasLeaguers.com

BrooksBaseball.net

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 5 Comments »

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Thursday: 04.7.2011

It’s Been a Week…

Today marks the one-week anniversary of the 2011 MLB season.  Yes, a whole week.  Of course that essentially meaningless sample of data hasn’t kept pockets of the baseball community from wildly overreacting.

“Oh my jeezorz, are the Orioles & Royals kontindurz?!?”

“Ummm, why do the Red Sox suckzorz so much?  I want mah money back!”

“Should I drop Jon Lester for Kevin Correia in mah fantuhsee leeg?”

Let’s all just take a step back and enjoy these first couple of weeks of play and realize you can’t attach too much meaning to the events on the field, especially those that heavily go against expectations.  Sure, some of the surprises will stick, but it’s virtually impossible to know which will at this juncture.  You have to trust talent whether when looking at your favorite team as a whole or at individual players on your fantasy roster.

I’ll cover more on the fantasy angle later, but today I wanted to go through an exercise to show just little we can glean not only from the first week of play, but from the first four.  There’s obviously going to be tons of variance from the first week of standings to the end of the season, but I think many would believe that May 1st is enough data to start making judgments about ballclubs, even if they run contrary what we would have expected coming into the season.

However, even a month’s worth of data isn’t always a great indicator that fans of a good team who is underperforming should begin flipping out or that fans of a poorer team who is overachieving should crack open the piggy bank for that playoff ticket deposit.  Over the last four years,  look at how little the May 1st standings have actually told us about how the season would play out.

Again, a surprise or two may stick, but I can tell you that even if the Orioles are somehow playing .600 ball by May 1st, I’m still projecting them to finish near the bottom of that division with third place as a stretch goal.  They don’t have the talent to stick with the Red Sox and Yankees for sure and it’d be an upset for them to beat the Jays and Rays.

The same goes for the Royals.  Their team as currently constructed is one of the worst in the AL from strictly a talent measure and while they have a throng of blue chip prospects who are on the cusp, the chances of all of them coming up and performing at an above average clip are scant.  So even if they closed the month 20-10 or something, I would still have the White Sox, Tigers and Twins finishing ahead of them assuming those three teams hadn’t suffered a severe injury or three during April.

Cream rises to the top.  We’ve seen it before (as you’re about to see) and we’ll see it again.

On May 1st, 2007…

The New York Yankees were 10-14; finished 94-68 and wildcard winner by season’s end.

The Philadelphia Phillies were 12-14; finished 89-73 winning the division by a game over the New York Mets (who were 15-10).

The Chicago Cubs were 11-14; finished 85-77 winning the division by 2 games over the Milwaukee Brewers (who were 17-9).

The Pittsburgh Pirates were 12-13 and went on to finish 68-94, 2nd-worst in baseball.

The Colorado Rockies were 11-16, five games out; finished 90-73 winning game 163 against San Diego to win the wildcard and eventually play in the World Series.

On May 1st, 2008…

The Toronto Blue Jays were 12-17; still only finished fourth in the division, but with an 86-76 record (74-59 after April).

The Oakland A’s were 18-12 and tied for the division lead with the Los Angeles Angels; finished 75-86 while the Angels went 100-62.

The St. Louis Cardinals were 18-11 and atop their division; finished 86-76 good for fourth place.

The Arizona Diamondbacks were 20-8 and held the best record in baseball by a decent margin; finished just 82-80, two games out of first in the division.

On May 1st, 2009…

The Toronto Blue Jays were 16-9, good for the best record in the AL, thanks in large part to a favorable schedule; finished 75-87 as the schedule evened out resulting in a fourth place finish.

The New York Yankees were 13-10; finished a league-best 103-59.

The Kansas City Royals were 12-11, hardly world beating, but above expectations for them; finished 65-97 which tied for 2nd-worst in the AL.

The Seattle Mariners were 14-9 leading the AL West by 3.5 games; finished 85-77 which is plenty respectable, but put them 12 out and in third place.  The team that defeated them? …

The Los Angeles Angels were 9-13 sitting 4.5 behind those Mariners; finished 97-65 good for 2nd-best in baseball.

The Florida Marlins were 14-9 leading the NL East by 2 games; finished 87-75 six games out of first.

The Philadelphia Phillies were 11-10 trailing those Marlins; finished 93-69 good for 2nd-best in the NL.

The Pittsburgh Pirates were 11-11, like the Royals an achievement for them given expectations; finished 62-99 fulfilling the low preseason expectations set for them.

The Colorado Rockies were 8-13, 2nd-worst in the NL and 6.5 in the West; finished 92-70 winning the wildcard by a five game margin over those Marlins.

On May 1st, 2010…

The Chicago White Sox were 10-14 in total disarray as talks of firing the manager swirled overhead; finished 88-74 which was still six games out, but they contended for most of the summer until the Twins pulled away.

The Texas Rangers were 12-12, a half game out of first; finished 90-72 winning the division by nine games, the biggest margin in baseball.

The New York Mets were 14-10 atop the NL East; finished 79-83, 18 games out of first place.

The Washington Nationals were 13-11, just a game back of the Mets; finished 69-93, 28 games out of first place.

The Cincinnati Reds were 12-12, four games back in the NL Central; finished 91-71 winning the division by five games over the Cardinals.

The St. Louis Cardinals were 16-8; finished 86-76 losing out to the Reds.

On May 1st, 2011…

To be determined, but I bet we have at least a few cases to add for next year’s column.

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