Baseball By Paul

It gets said time and time again during every single fantasy baseball season, but it’s just foolish to chase wins. Making trades or pick-ups based solely on the idea of acquiring wins is a losing proposition almost every single time. Think about it, you’re acquiring one piece (albeit a substantial piece) of an amazingly large puzzle that determines whether or not a team wins. Too often, fantasy owners are expectant of wins from their pitchers with strong ratios (ERA & WHIP) without giving enough consideration to the other factors, specifically how well the starter pitcher’s team performs for him while they are batting. The adage that you can’t win a game 0-0 has often been used when talking about excellent starting pitchers that have terrible offense behind them. This is primarily why it is stupid to chase wins. But if you are going to do it, at least do it right.

Shaun Marcum has a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP this season, yet he’s just 5-4 in 15 starts. Kyle Kendrick has a 4.59 and 1.44 WHIP yet he is 7-3 in 16 starts. The point of that exercise isn’t to suggest that you should want Kendrick over Marcum; rather it exemplifies the “unfairness” of win distribution at times. Marcum should probably have 10+ wins given how well he has pitched and Kendrick should be the one with four or five victories. Livan Hernandez and his 5.22 ERA has yielded eight wins, but Scott Olsen and his 3.47 ERA has netted a meager four wins.

So what is the “right” way to chase a category not worth chasing? It comes down to information, specifically information that goes beyond earned run averages and WHIP ratios. I do not encourage ignoring either of those because regardless of how many wins you need, you can’t blow up those ratios just to maybe grab a handful of elusive wins. The key information necessary is Run Support. Run Support is the amount of runs a pitcher’s offense is scoring for him while he is the pitcher of record. It is calculated like an ERA, that is to say, it’s also based off of a nine inning average.

For the piece, I took starters with 80 or more innings this season and sorted them by their Run Support. I broke the 105 qualifying pitchers into two groups. The ones with good Run Support are those getting 5.00+ runs and the rest are those getting “bad” Run Support. Using that measure splits the group very evenly with 54 pitchers falling under the good column and the remaining 51 being part of the bad group.

Here are the findings of the study:
• The good group is averaging 7.3 wins apiece on an average of 16.3 starts, 12 of which are resulting in decisions (74%)
• The bad group is averaging 5.1 wins apiece on an average of 16.2 starts, 11.3 of which are resulting in decisions (70%)
• The good group has a composite ERA of 4.16 and composite WHIP of 1.36 in 5280 innings
• The bad group has a composite ERA of 4.07 and composite WHIP of 1.33 in 5077.3 innings
• Of those in the good group, eight have fewer than six wins (15%)
• Of those in the bad group, 32 have fewer than six wins (63%)

So what does this all mean? It means, obviously, that Run Support is a key factor in determining wins and losses regardless of a pitcher’s performance (that is, ERA & WHIP). Now that doesn’t mean I advocate grabbing a group of shlocks with good run support and try to pile up a ton of wins. To wit, those with good Run Support but an ERA of 4.40 or worse are averaging five wins while those below are enjoying an average of eight wins. The pitcher’s performance still matters so don’t just roll the dice on lesser pitchers playing for supposedly high-octane offenses and assume that will be enough. Take the time to see who is getting the support and make your decisions accordingly.

Chasing wins isn’t for me. I will still take the better peripheral performance 100 out of 100 times. Give me Shaun Marcum (five wins), John Danks (five) and Greg Maddux (three) before Ted Lilly (eight wins), Kyle Kendrick (seven) and Oliver Perez (six). That said, you can listen to any fantasy baseball radio show or peruse any fantasy baseball message board and find plenty of threads that say, “I needed wins, so I grabbed Mike Pelfrey since he’s on the Mets and they have a great offense.” A great offense isn’t equal to all pitchers. Kyle Kendrick tops the list at 8.13 runs, but teammates Adam Eaton, Cole Hamels and Brett Myers are all on the list of pitchers getting poor run support despite Philadelphia being the league’s 4th-best team in terms of runs scored.

The only area with more volatility than wins is saves and both can make you gray or worse yet, bald if you try to acquire them directly instead of trusting skills to be rewarded in the long run. Consider that of the 24 pitchers to win 15 or more games last year, only two had an ERA above 4.40 by season’s end (8%). That was a five-year low that followed 2006’s high watermark of 26% during the timeframe. Looking at the eight-win pitchers here at the halfway point shows that 12% of them have an ERA over 4.40.

Conclusion: Chasing wins is stupid.

During the preparation season (October to March if you’re like me), there are tons of debates that get looked at from every possible angle. One that comes up annually is position scarcity. Is it better to have the best at a scarce position or just fill the gap with something moderately adequate and hope that maybe you capture a breakout season in a bottle? This year it was quite clear that catcher was the thinnest position. (Note: I also believed outfield to be far more scarce than many believed, but it’s a different beast in that some of the game’s top producers are outfielders and stocking up on them early doesn’t carry the potential disadvantages of getting a top catcher early on.)

It was viewed as the 4 M’s and then the rest. Russell Martin, Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer and Brian McCann were the elite while almost anything else was table scraps by comparison. Geovany Soto and J.R. Towles were appealing rookies that got a lot of attention based mostly on potential. So back to our question, would you be paying the premium for an M or waiting on the flotsam? I’ve always been firmly entrenched in the flotsam camp. I’m not saying I get the absolute worst of the worst, but I’m definitely hoping to get two $1 lottery tickets in the auction. That is, two $1 catchers that have some level of silver lining that could lead to a quality season. At most, I’ll budget $10 to fill the two catcher spots. In my draft leagues, I usually designate a set of value guys and take them once only a couple of teams need catchers.

To me, spending the extra resources (draft pick or auction dollars) to maybe get top quality production at catcher just isn’t worth it. The 4 M’s are some quality baseball players, but it’s not like I get them AND the same outfield or the same trio of corner infielders that I would’ve gotten by not investing those extra resources. My point is, your team will take the hit somewhere. Is it better to take the hit in catcher or any other position? The answer, plain and simple, is any other position. And there are several reasons for this answer.

First is that the position is a defensive one; hitting is secondary for almost every catcher. Regardless of how well they hit, a catcher’s first job is to run the pitching staff and quarterback the defense… or at least it will be if the manager has his way. That doesn’t mean that they care less about hitting, but their management is likely to ignore some struggles at the dish if they are calling their games remarkably well and engineering a crisp defensive unit. It’s a very cerebral position that puts a lot on a guy’s plate and sometimes the hitting gets pushed to the side. Ever notice how many former catchers are currently managing teams?

Second is that the position takes a toll on the body! One of the reason it is hard to get quality numbers out of catchers is because they just don’t play as much as other players so they can’t pile up counting stats. Usually it’s simply the nature of being a catcher is conducive to planned off days, but oftentimes injuries occur and they miss extended periods of time. There is a reason that players move from behind the dish after a few seasons. Craig Biggio started out as a catcher and so did Carlos Delgado & B.J. Surhoff. Neither would’ve lasted as long as they did (or are in Delgado’s case) without moving to a new position. Victor Martinez played 30 games at 1st base a season ago and 22 the season before that—he is slowly making the transition. Already this year he has four games logged as a first baseman.

Reasons 1 and 2 lead to volatility in the already depressed production of players at that position. To put it simply: too much can go wrong when investing heavily in catchers at the expense of another position. Consider the following table:

Ouch, that’s pretty awful, isn’t it? So what’s my point? Looking at the three year averages of production across the key statistics in fantasy baseball, there isn’t even enough at any statistic for one per team in a 10-team league. And 12+ team leagues are far more common meaning things are even thinner in your average league. That coupled with the fact that there are no sure things at catcher (isn’t that right, Mr. Martinez?) means you should avoid investing heavily at the position. The best way to optimize your chances for winning is to mitigate the risk. You can’t play it safe across the board, but when taking risks you assess the level of risk against the potential reward.

When analyzing catcher, the risk-reward says you’re better off with Dioner Navarro and Chris Snyder at a dollar apiece or a late round pick than Russell Martin or Victor Martinez for several dollars (varies greatly by league) or in the first 2-3 rounds. Navarro was brutal last year with a .641 OPS, but digging deeper reveals an .815 OPS after the break. Most owners would only see his overall numbers and probably laugh when you roster him for a $1 or in the reserve rounds of your draft. Now he has an .862 OPS in 118 at-bats. Snyder’s 13 home runs from 2007 likely had him on more radars than Navarro, but the .252 average and 47 RBIs likely kept his draft position and auction price low. His .889 post-break OPS, powered by a .386 on-base, screamed buy to me and now I’m enjoying his .842 OPS and 26 RBIs in several leagues.

Both of these players may look like hindsight 20-20 picks and I can’t necessarily prove that they aren’t so you’ll have to trust me. I’m simply making a point that a little extra homework can save resources from being wasted and enhance your chances for winning your league. Even if that same homework results in a Carlos Ruiz (.595 OPS) or Kurt Suzuki (.614 OPS), it freed up resources (in the form of auction dollars or your higher level draft picks) that ensured you weren’t stuck relying on an Andruw Jones or Eric Byrnes as a #1 or #2 outfielder. Acquiring a top catcher means you will have to cut corners elsewhere and it’s wiser to cut corners at catcher than it is at any other position. By the way, the mention of Martin may draw the ire of some who look at his line and say he’s doing just fine. He hasn’t been abysmal, but he’s on pace for 9 HR and 12 SB when many projected a near 20-20 season again after last year’s 19 HR-21 SB. Factor in the price paid to get him (leagues in which he was a keeper notwithstanding) and he is whatever the level is just before “abysmal”.

As the calendar flips to June, the preseason catcher quartet shows the one ranked 4th producing the best by a landslide:

I’ve already covered Martin. Mauer has been a bust in the power department since day 1 for the most part so his homerless streak isn’t terribly surprising, but the owners that have 0 HR-11 R-18 RBI out of Martinez thus far probably get sick every morning when they sift through the boxscores. The only one on par with McCann thus far? The rookie of course. Geovany Soto has McCann matched in home runs with 9 to go with his 36 RBIs, 21 runs scored and .301/.396/.563 line. Three of the four catchers widely regarded as the only sure things available are vastly under performing against expectations and the fourth was often rated the lowest only further showing how uncertain the position can be for fantasy owners.

This subject will be revisited throughout the season and at length again in the off-season.

As we head down the backstretch of month one in our marathon towards the finish line, even the most adamant of us that preach patience with our teams need to dust off the desk once again and start taking a look things. The season is easing into a canter and players are fast approaching the 100 at-bat mark meaning it’s easier for to analyze how our players are performing from the still smallish samples we have at our disposal. As the at-bat totals climb the rate statistics won’t be subject to such wild fluctuations with each 1-for-10 slump or 5-for-10 surge.

The following article is less about making moves based on the past and more about shedding some light on what we might be seeing from a group of players in the coming month of May. I analyzed the past three years of data to determine who the top May hitters are during that stretch. I took everyone that posted an .850 or better OPS in May of 2005, 2006 and 2007. From there, I looked how frequently the players appeared. If a player appeared only once, they were done as I was looking for players that consistently smack the ball around in May. Performing in one of the past three Mays can be written off as a fluke.

There were 45 players that hit the .850 or above OPS mark in two of the three seasons and you will learn about them very shortly. Eight of those 45 (18%) turned the hat-trick. The positional breakdown delivers 21 outfielders, 14 corner infielders, six middle infielders and four catchers/designated hitters. The point of this exercise is to shed some light on the players you can reasonably expect a surge from as the calendar turns over to May. It is by no means a guarantee that these players will perform in this May as they have in past Mays, but the data set is large enough to make it worthwhile (read: fun) to look at for fantasy owners. Also, some of the players on the list might be currently struggling and thus increase their candidacy for a buy-low trade.

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The bulk of this 45-player list is superstars and established players, so don’t expect a list of players you can troll the waiver wire for in hopes of riding a hot May up through your standings. If anything, this list was constructed to offer peace of mind to those worry easily in this game we play. A hot month can jump-start a season and erase a slow start. Heck, Ryan Braun didn’t even need an April to put together an MVP-caliber season last year. There are definitely some players in this list that are currently slumping enough to raise concern for their owners. There are sometimes various degrees of validity to slumps of superstars, but those are usually injury-related. So if your stud isn’t in the news for various maladies that could be affecting his performance, then he is likely just in a slump that he will assuredly come out of during the season.

It could be May, it might be June, but as the adage goes: hitters hit. OK, enough preaching, let’s get back into some specifics about the list. A team breakdown suggests that opponents of Boston, Detroit and the New York Yankees had better watch out. Of course, I’d have suggested they watch out even without this list. Only seven teams don’t have a player within the list of 45 and the most surprising tidbit to come out of that fact is that one of the seven is NOT the San Francisco Giants (their representative will surprise you even more!) The light-hitting Kansas City Royals, Oakland Athletics and San Diego Padres are all on the list of seven to the surprise of no one. The lack of representation from the Tampa Bay Rays is actually a bit of surprise despite their ineptitude as a team in recent years. Though thinking through it now, their budding stars have not really been around long enough to have strung together a few Mays in a row. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers round out the list of seven. For those keeping track, that is three-quarters of the American League West to make the no-show list.

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I have now exhausted the content of this article that focuses on everything but the players involved, so let’s get to the meat of it all. Since the entire chart of 45 players with 13 columns of data apiece isn’t viewer friendly to the format of this article, I’ll break it up in three groups of 15 and countdown from 45 to 1, sorted by OPS:

• Note that I included the extra base hit percentage so you can get an idea of how many doubles and triples each batter had to go with the home runs that you can see listed. I found this to be more useful than keep the double & triple columns.

• Though .850 was the cutoff to qualify for the study, you will see that three of those ended up on the list actually have OPS below the .850 mark. Each of these three players had two seasons that qualified for the study, but clear their third year of May statistics took them below the threshold I was looking to achieve.

• Mike Cameron’s presence could bode well for his owners as he doesn’t even begin play until April 29th after serving a 25-game suspension for amphetamine use.

• Though he made the list, Adam Dunn doesn’t necessarily heat up in May. He hits for a ton power and takes the walks that we expect him to take. Both of these outcomes inflate his OPS to give him a spot on the list, but factoring in the .222 average almost eliminates the goodness of the home runs and runs batted in. As always, in an OBP league Dunn is a monster!

• Pat Burrell is not getting much press because of superstar teammate Chase Utley’s play, but Burrell has been white-hot to start the season. He often starts off the season well, but not this well. Many are attributing his hot start to the off-season marriage and the fact that he is a contract year.

• Several of the players in the bottom third of the list would benefit from continuing this historical trend including Casey Blake (.233 avg), Troy Glaus (0 hr) and Brad Hawpe (1 hr).

Next, we’ll look at the middle third which contains a fair bit more star power than players 31-45. However, this grouping also contains the list’s biggest surprise:

• As mentioned earlier, Chase Utley is steamrolling towards a Player of the Month Award at April wraps up. He has 10 home runs and an absurd 1.280 OPS. If he puts up another strong May, the league is in deep trouble!

• With a recent seven-game hitting streak from David Ortiz that has included three of his four home runs, he is heating up just in time to keep his hot May trend alive.

• Jose Castillo is no misprint; he did qualify for the list. In leagues where you might already be feeling desperate and willing to try anything, he might be a worth a flier to test the trend and see if it sticks. (Note: his 2007 May did see his hit .313, but that was it as he totaled just a .718 OPS. His 2006 May was spectacular with seven home runs, though. Buyer beware!)

• Utley isn’t the only one on fire that cracks the top 30: Conor Jackson, Chipper Jones, Alex Rios and David Wright are all paying large dividends for their owners thus far.

• Lyle Overbay welcomes May with open arms. He has yet to hit a home run this year and he has six in each of the past two Mays. He is one of the eight players that posted an .850 or better in each of the three seasons analyzed.

• Nick Johnson is finally healthy, but uncharacteristically struggling in April. He is still piling up walks, but not much else.

Finally, let’s look at the top 15. It’s star-laden with the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Miguel Cabrera, all of whom are 1st round picks/top-dollar players.
• Aging stars Magglio Ordonez, Gary Sheffield and Manny Ramirez do some of their best work in May. Ordonez & Ramirez are both on fire already, while Sheffield is banged up and struggling when he does play.

• A pair of second basemen cracked the top 15, but only relies on the long ball to power his fantasy value. Brian Roberts and Dan Uggla are overshadowed by Chase Utley (and rightfully so), but both join him and actually supersede him when it comes to May performance over the past three seasons.

• Jason Bay was a waste of draft picks and auction money for his owners a season ago, but when you look at the breakdown, May was his best month. He hit four home runs per month from April to August, but only twice did he top .695 in OPS.

• In the off-season, Albert Pujols’ elbow caused Y2K-like fear on the fantasy landscape. A month into the season, it has proven to be as innocuous as Y2K was some eight years ago. That said, his owners aren’t out of the wood yet. In fact, they won’t be until at least the All-Star Break. A primary source of the fear was centered around the fact that while he’d play and play hard while he could, he would shut things down at the first sign of pain. Provided health, he should continue his tear in May.

• Mark Teixeira, my pick for the National League MVP, is poised to breakout. He has raised his batting average by 40 points in the past week, but his home run pace is a little light at 30. Look for a strong May to propel to securing the Senior Circuit’s top player honors at season’s end.

There are the Top 45 performers in the month of May over the past three seasons. Even though most of the players in the study topped 250 at-bats, it is still difficult to say whether or not performing well in a particular month year-in and year-out is anything more than coincidence. If you buy into study, you can use the data to acquire some buy-low candidates and wait for their breakout next month. If you’re skeptical about the validity of what you just read, you can still use the data to your advantage by flipping some of these players for more than they’re worth by citing their impending breakout in May. Wherever you fall on the spectrum, this kind of study is what makes baseball such a great game. We gather piles and piles of data and analyze to see if we have anything. If not, it’s back to the drawing board.