Baseball By Paul

I did some significant re-working to the initial Top 100, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given how early the first version was released. My most egregious omission is doubly painful since I’m such a huge proponent of this guy, but fear not, Ian Kinsler debuts in v2.0 with a very solid ranking. Given how much I love speed-combo guys and how many times during the capsules I mentioned that 2B wasn’t the barren wasteland it once was, I chalk it up to little more than a ball-drop on my part.

Only one other debut as Cole Hamels cracked the Top 100 with a vengeance checking in at #85. The two that paid for Hamels’ and Kinsler’s entries were Mike Lowell and Jim Thome. I have got nothing against either player and they both offer a pretty solid set of numbers, but one of the key factors with a list like this is with a lot of these guys, you are looking for them to improve upon a foundation that they have previously laid out. Now that isn’t the case with every guy because I still left plenty of oldies on the list, but just think about the four guys in question, are you taking Hamels and Kinsler or Lowell and Thome?

Some big tumblers within this first update were Miguel Tejada as the steroids issue looks like it could be clamping down on him, also I bumped Daisuke Matsuzaka quite a bit not because I’ve soured on his ability and projections for 2008, but more so because I like others ahead of him after further review into the starting pitching landscape. Aaron Hill is a favorite of mine coming into the season, but I feel I was a little overzealous with his initial ranking, so I tempered things and bumped him down to #73.

Anyway enough chatter, here is version 2.0 of my Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

Phew, I made it. After 11,667 words, the initial compilation of the top 100 fantasy baseball players is complete! Below are the final 20 pieces to the puzzle that is filled with familiar names, but not necessarily in the expected spots. I am confident with the rankings, though I have no doubt that many of you will have different takes on whom belongs where. I have tried to show my reasoning for each player’s position in the 100-word (or so) blurbs written about each player, but if you want more explanation for why someone is above or below someone, then please don’t hesitate to contact me at the email address found in the closing below. And now, the top 20:

20. Carlos Beltran – New York Mets, OF (31):
Beltran figured out lefties last year (.304), but then righties gave him trouble (.265). He put up a brilliant second half and though he is on the other of 30 years old, he is still a bona fide superstar. The 40-home run power of 2006 is unlikely to return, but 30-20 with 100 runs scored and driven in, each. Peripheral numbers point to a near .300 average, but he has yet to deliver that since he headed to the Big Apple. Look for him to finally get the extra base hits to reach the appropriate level and give his owners all five categories.

19. Johan Santana – Minnesota Twins (for now), SP (29):
He is still the best pitcher in the game regardless of which team he is on at the start of the season. Owners may have been disappointed by the 3.33 earned run average and the win-loss record, but they are likely idiots. He was still 7th in the American League in ERA and 2nd in strikeouts with the 15 wins good enough for 6th. If there was anything to worry about, it was the 33 home runs that was worst in the league, but then you consider he was still able to put up those numbers in spite of the bombs and the worry goes away quickly. Don’t get cute and try to take any other pitcher before him.

18. David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox, DH (32):
Offers the insane raw power of an Adam Dunn, but includes a sparkling .300 batting average. Despite losing 19 home runs off of his total from ’06, his power index didn’t match the drop meaning significant ground was not lost. The three steals tripled his career high making him a true 5-category threat! I couldn’t even type that with a straight face. He is, however, an excellent 4-category threat meaning you can safely ignore the limitations on position eligibility and take the huge numbers.

17. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers, 3B (24):
You couldn’t possibly script a better debut campaign if you tried. Braun’s first season was absolutely flawless from a fantasy baseball perspective… unless of course your league counts defense, in which case, yikes! I expect a slight regression, but a sophomore slump is unlikely based on last year. If he drops significantly anywhere, I could see it in the batting average, but he should still hit around .280. The age, power and speed at third base won’t be on the board for long and unlikely to be had cheaply, but the numbers justify the cost.

16. Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies, 1B (28):
Puts up the numbers of David Ortiz with the ridiculously raw power, but trades a few batting average points for position eligibility and a few extra years. Figured out lefties during the MVP campaign of 2006, but lost it again last year, which was a big cause for the dip down to .268. If he jumps back up to into the .280s, he is back to being a 4-category guy. Even if not, pay for 50 home runs and enjoy!

15. Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers, 1B (23):
Wow! How excited should we be about a 50-home run hitter that is just 23 years old? Extremely. If he continues to improve, we could see our first 60+ home run season since Barry Bonds’ 73 in 2001. And there’s more, he also has legitimate potential to hit .300 with the power. I realize that players are not completely in control of this, but I want to see more runs batted in out of Fielder before ranking him closer to the top 10.

14. Mark Teixeira – Atlanta Braves, 1B (28):
Big Tex left Texas for the National League and his power returned! He hit a home run per 22 at-bats with the Rangers in 78 games and then one per 12 at-bats with the Braves in 54 games. Had he not missed 30 games, he would have paced out to 37 home runs, but his Atlanta pace translates to 51 home runs. The 2006 power failure (by his standards) is the aberration, so the rejuvenation in Atlanta makes Tex an elite power source once again.

13. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds, 2B (26):
Remember when Phillips was one of baseball’s top prospects? It took him awhile, but he now cashing in on the potential and he is still only 26!!! He has back-to-back career years that are surprising because he had been left for dead, but not because he doesn’t have the talent to sustain. He is an excellent 5-category star at a relatively thin position. I’m giving Chase Utley the nod as the top second basemen only because of a deeper track record, but that may change as the winter evolves. Stay tuned.

12. Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians, OF (25):
I was huge on Sizemore for 2007, going so far as to name him my American League MVP. Well things didn’t quite pan out that way (though he did notch 15 MVP points), but he still had a great year. He gave back some home runs and average (despite figuring out lefties) in exchange for 11 more stolen bases, which was essentially a wash. I don’t think he is close to his ceiling with a 30-30 season on the horizon and possibly even this season. He is a true fantasy baseball cornerstone, both now and in the future.

11. Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays, OF (26):
His past four seasons are a model for consistency and still Crawford is often somewhat underrated. He has the ability to add 20 home runs to the ridiculous speed and he nearly did in 2006. Watch some of those doubles get over the wall in 2008 as he creeps near that 20-mark again. Eventually, the speed will fade as he goes for more power, but it won’t happen this season. There is nothing to dislike about what Crawford brings to the table, bid high.

And down the stretch we come…

10. Matt Holliday – Colorado Rockies, OF (28):
Prior to the 2007 season, I dealt a $20 Holliday for $5 Jeremy Hermida, $5 Troy Tulowitzki and $9 Dave Bush. Whoops. He nearly outhit the two, trailing them by six home runs and 25 runs batted in while crushing them batting average: .293 to .340, plus he only used up one roster spot! I mentioned it in Tulowitzki’s profile and I’ll do so again, who cares if he benefits greatly from playing in Coors Field? His OPS on the road is .860 against 1.157 at home, but all of the numbers count equally meaning Holliday is a fantasy baseball beast. A .300-40-130 season could be in store for his owners in 2008.

9. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers, 3B (25):
I think the trade to the Detroit Tigers pumped him up five-to-seven spots as he joins one of the league’s best lineups and leaves one of the worst. He is reported to be in shape after weight was a problem in ’07 meaning he could be ready for an MVP season in Motown. The lineup around him will take care of the runs scored and batted in, while he does the rest en route to a .310-120-40-150-5 season. Can you believe he is only 25? Dang, it’s good to be a Tigers fan!

8. Alfonso Soriano – Chicago Cubs, OF (32):
I can’t figure out why early mock drafts are seemingly down on Soriano in 2008. In one draft, I saw him slip to 17th, while I got him 12th in a 20-team early mock. He is just two years removed from the 40-40 season. Now, I don’t mention that because I see another in ’08 because he simply won’t run enough in Chicago, especially if he drops in lineup, but rather to point out that he is still a superstar. He dropped 33-19 in 135 games, which is a 40-23 pace in a full season. He has a very reliable skill set that is hard not to love. Even at 32, a 30-30 season is possible.

7. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies, 2B (29):
A broken hand derailed another brilliant season, but he rebounded nicely leaving no warning signs moving into this season. The speed is declining, even if you extrapolate the steals over the entire season, but that is more than acceptable when you consider a .300-30-100 from second base. As I mentioned earlier, I am leaning towards giving Brandon Phillips the nod as the best second basemen, but Utley’s stronger track record, more power potential and higher run producing ceiling (125 RBIs a real possibility) allow him to hang onto the spot… for now.

6. Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies, SS (29):
I didn’t create this list to pat myself on the back (see: Holliday, Matt), but in my main NL-Only league, my co-owner and I made Rollins our primary, big-salary target. Well imagine if we had kept Holliday, we might have finished higher than 6th place. He put everything together for an MVP season, managing a .296 average despite setting a major-league record for at-bats with 716. He gave his owners a 30-40 season from shortstop while scoring nearly 140 runs and driving nearly 100 more. It was a career-year, to be sure, but plenty of this is sustainable so don’t expect a huge drop off in ’08. He is going to score another boatload of runs with two teammates of his in the top 20, and still another in the top 50. Scariest thing? There are two more shortstops to come.

5. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals, 1B (28):
He had more nagging injuries than the guy in the game Operation which no doubt led to the “down” year he labored through in 2007. He played through the injuries (158 games played) meaning they weren’t serious, but they clearly took their toll as he dropped below 40 home runs for the first time in five years and didn’t offer his customary handful of steals (two all year). All of this could result in an undervalued (relative to his superstar colleagues) Pujols, which makes him an even stronger buy.

4. David Wright – New York Mets, 3B (25):
If your cornerstone draft pick or auction buy flops in April, look at Wright’s 2007 April before giving up: 90 at-bats, 22 hits (.244 average), zero home runs, six runs batted and three stolen bases. Ouch. Of course, he ended with a .325 average, 30 home runs, 107 runs batted in and 34 stolen bases. It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon and Wright’s MVP-worthy season is one of hundreds of examples of that idiom. Had he shown up in April, he might have notched baseball’s second 40-40 season in a row. Third base is pretty deep, but things get started with Wright and his Big Apple counterpart, who we’ll get to in a moment.

3. Jose Reyes – New York Mets, SS (24):
The most interesting thing about Reyes and his teammate from a moment ago is that they are 24 and 25, respectively. That is absurd. Reyes has developed some legitimate patience allowing him to get on base more, resulting in a career-high for stolen bases. He showed the power potential in 2006, but a 1st half power outage kept him from the 20-home run mark. The absurd speed alone makes him worth the premium paid, but the enormous runs scored totals and potential to give his owner 20 bombs nets him this top 3 ranking.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins, SS (24):
It is frightening to this that he could legitimately post a 35-60 season with a huge average and solid team-dependent offerings. For now, focus on the .300-30-50 season he delivered in 2007 despite a torn left labrum. He received surgery and he will be ready for Spring Training, but potential effects from the surgery is enough to hold back on predicting the 35-60 season, instead let’s sit back and just pray for it. Miguel Cabrera’s departure could sap some runs from his total, but a capable cast could pick up the slack and keep him near the 115-mark. With Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell successful in Boston, this trade is shaping up to truly be an even one.

1. Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees, 3B (32):
Erased doubts that he is the game’s best player with a remarkable MVP campaign in 2007 and nothing suggests another such season isn’t forthcoming. It seems that it wasn’t a matter of whether or not A-Rod could put up those numbers, but rather whether or not he wanted to put up those numbers. He might have even posted a .320+ average had he continued his previous success against left-handers. The only possible scary thing about him is that even-numbered years haven’t been kind to him in his Yankee tenure, but that is more coincidental than anything else, bid high and bid confidently.

So there it is, folks, my top 100 fantasy baseball players. As most everything is, it will be subject to change, but I am confident with the initial offering. I worked and re-worked the opening list several times, so I will almost assuredly have four or five changes ready for you when version 2.0 is released later. For now, I hope you have enjoyed the time and effort that I put into the list and write-ups of each player. I do appreciate the feedback I have received thus far and welcome all of it. Some of you have sent specific questions about trades and draft picks for mocks that you’re in that don’t pertain to players in the top 100 and I’m completely fine with that. I aim to respond to any and all questions within 24 hours of their receipt. If you prefer email over commenting and don’t have the address it is as follows: sporer (at sign) gmail.com

One final treat, here are three breakdowns of the Top 100 by the numbers:

Apologies for the delay, but a hectic weekend was capped off very poorly with my girlfriend’s car being broken into! That said, we’re more than half way home on the initial top 100 with 41-60 listed below, as always in inverse order to enhance suspense ;):

60. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays, 2B (26):
Consider me a believer of the immense 2007 growth and not just because I was a benefactor as his owner in one league. His increases in line drive and fly ball rates were keys to the power surge (17 HR in ’07 after six the year before) and it didn’t cost him any batting average as he stayed at .291. His improvement along with others has turned second base from a fantasy wasteland into a position with a bit of depth. Nothing within his statistical set suggest 2007 was a fluke and at age 26, he might even see more growth.

59. Gary Sheffield – Detroit Tigers, DH (39):
A brilliant first half was derailed by nagging injuries in the second, but it didn’t completely “slow” him down as he ended up with 13 steals after the break giving him 22 for the year. If the off-season surgery fixed up the shoulder then he could put together the season that his first half was setting up. Run scoring and run producing opportunities will be plentiful in Motown, so I see a very productive season given health. The speed will be the X-factor and key to eliminating the downside of being DH-only.

58. Hideki Matsui – New York Yankees, OF (33):
Matsui rebounded solidly from injury-riddled 2006 as he was once again a 4-category threat. More of the same should be on tap this season, especially in that lineup. Injury is the only thing that has ever derailed his ability to produce at the highest levels since coming to the United States, so a full season of health brings a near guarantee of .300-25-100-100, bid with confidence.

57. Chone Figgins – Los Angeles Angels, 3B (30):
Figgins is now down to eligibility at third base only, but still put together an excellent despite essentially taking off two months. He missed all but one game of April with an injury, but then his .156 and five steals in all of May were almost like he wasn’t there anyway. He made up for lost time with an absurd June that saw him hit .461 and nab 14 bases letting his owners he was completely healthy. In fact, from June on, he hit .376 and stole 36 bases. He is a two category guy playing a power position, but his primary asset (the speed) is very bankable on the Angels. Pay for 40+ steals and stockpile power at 1B and OF to compensate.

56. Brad Hawpe – Colorado Rockies, OF (28):
Hawpe took another large step forward in power and run production, but continued the steps backwards in hitting left-handers (hitting .214 to continue a three-year downtrend against southpaws). Coors Effect splits are there (1.017 home OPS/.831 road OPS), but hardly alarming making it hard not to love putting him in your outfield. If he figures out lefties, he might have 40-home run ability, and if not then enjoy a 2007 repeat with a few more bombs.

55. Derek Jeter – New York Yankees, SS (33):
Mr. Intangible took a dip in fantasy production a year ago, though will undoubtedly continue to go for top dollar/early pick because of his name alone. He cut his speed by more than half with just 15 stolen bases last year against the 34 from 2006 and dropped off in runs scored and runs driven in despite more at-bats. At 33, there is no reason to bet on the speed returning, but he’ll still offer the handful of steals. When looking at his past five seasons, the 97 RBIs of ’06 is the outlier, so don’t look for that again, either. He is a 15-15 guy with a great average and a ton of runs scored thanks to that lineup, so bid accordingly.

54. Miguel Tejada – Houston Astros, SS (31):
Four straight of years declining home run totals have owners fleeing, but keep in mind that there was a good bit of time missed last year and he would’ve fallen just two home runs shy of his ’06 production had he equaled the ’06 at-bat total last year. The move Houston should boost value and widespread fears could make him an excellent buy-low candidate this season. The days of 30+ home runs aren’t likely to return, but a .300-25-100 line from shortstop for the round or dollar amount he is likely to command this year is very nice.

53. Garrett Atkins – Colorado Rockies, 3B (28):
It was a tale of two halves for Atkins in 2007 as he needed a remarkable 2nd half performance to save his season. The slow start kept him from matching the 2006 output, but he performed well enough to give owners confidence for this season. His 2nd half power boost came in spite of a large dip in flyball rate. My guess would be he was just trying to get under everything in the 1st half in hopes of becoming a 30+ home run hitter, but when that didn’t work he went back to his old approach realizing he can still hit home runs with a low-40s flyball rate (his 29 home run output in ’06 was with a 41% FB rate).

52. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros, OF (25):
Pence burst onto the scene with a white-hot May and only a wrist fracture in July slowed him down. He delivered 5-category production in 2007 and I doubt 2008 will be all that different. His position in the batting order seems up in the air with the addition of Miguel Tejada. Some sources suggest he could be as low as sixth with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Tejada ahead of him in no particular order. That may lower his ceiling in the runs scored and runs driven in columns, but keep in mind that Colorado’s Brad Hawpe hit 6th for 444 of his 516 at-bats last year.

51. Chipper Jones – Atlanta Braves, 3B (36):
Powered by his biggest at-bat total since 2003 (with 513), Jones was able to put together his best across-the-board season since 2001. That said, he still only played 134 games and hasn’t played more than 137 since 2003, so you are still paying for 70-to-80% of a season when acquiring Jones. In one league I was in last year, I saw things get quiet when his price hit $19, but I was more than happy to pay $20 to secure his services. It is highly unlikely he’ll go for prices like that this year, but he should. Expect .300-25-85 with anything higher being gravy.

50. C.C. Sabathia – Cleveland Indians, SP (27):
Sabathia has put together four straight seasons of improvement, including last year’s Cy Young-worthy effort, yet he will be just 27 this year! Even more amazing was that the three years before he started this run were all pretty damn solid. He hasn’t really had anything resembling a bad year during his 7-year career. The downside is that he has gone 180.1 innings or more in each of those seven seasons piling up 1406.1 innings in the process making overuse a concern. At this point, I am willing to believe he can handle the workload, but it is something to be aware of if you’re targeting him.

49. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies, OF (27):
Aaron Rowand’s departure gives Victorino job security patrolling centerfield for the Phillies this year. With a full season of work, Victorino has the ability to post 50+ stolen bases, which would have been 3rd or 4th in the National League last year. As it was, his 37 landed him 6th. He is a three category guy adding runs scored and batting average to the speed, but his owners have got to love the chip-in homers he brought to the table last year as well (12).

48. Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks, SP (29):
His natural progression of adding two wins per season since 2005 means he is ready for 20 in 2008! I am obviously kidding, but Webb has become a premier pitcher since gaining a handle on his control during that ’05 season. The excellent defense up the middle with Stephen Drew, Orlando Hudson and Chris Young plays perfectly to his style of pitching. Like Sabathia, he is piling up innings with four straight 200+ seasons in a row, but that doesn’t mean he is guaranteed to breakdown. In fact, it is merely a caveat for him and anyone else within this list. You simply cannot argue with the results that Webb has delivered for the past three seasons and it is hard to expect anything less in ’08.

47. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox, SP (27):
After a disastrous debut season in Boston (5.10 ERA in 2006), Beckett picked up where 2005 left off en route to a Cy Young Award. Unlike the past two starters mentioned, Beckett hasn’t really piled up the innings because injuries have stunted several seasons. His career best season came on the heels of his career worst, but there is little doubt that the former is in line with his ability. Look for more of the same in 2008 and it is clear the wins will pile up regardless of performance in Boston.

46. Erik Bedard – Baltimore Orioles (for now), SP (29):
If Bedard does in fact start the season with the Orioles, then he may see his position slide, but at the time of version 1.0 of this list he is heavily rumored to Seattle. He put it all together for an incredible season last year and would’ve likely garnered plenty of attention for the Cy Young Award had an oblique strain in late August not sapped six to seven starts away from him. His best days are likely head of him as he combines great power (4th in Ks) and control (3rd in WHIP). If he finds himself on a winner, the sky is the limit.

45. Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins, 1B (26):
You never like to jump on the guys with poor second halves like the one suffered by Morneau in ’07. Three home runs in August and September screams either injury or approach flaw and in both cases the offseason is likely the best remedy for him. He should bat 4th all year in ‘08 with Torii Hunter departed and Morneau’s production in that spot much better than Michael Cuddyer’s. His upside remains .300-40-120, but monitor spring performance where auction and draft dates allow before bidding for 2006 production.

44. Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay Rays, 1B (29):
Pena’s 2007 netted him the Comeback Player of the Year Award and while his career year was surprising, it was only because he had yet to cash in on the potential everyone saw for him as he rose through the minors. It took awhile, but he has arrived. Nothing within the statistics from ’07 forecasts a large regression except perhaps his newfound ability against lefties (.271 against .146, .245 and .208 in his previous three full seasons). Downside suggests an Adam Dunn-like season with 40 home runs and a sub .265 average, while the upside suggests a 2007 repeat or better!

43. Manny Ramirez – Boston Red Sox, OF (35):
You know you are a superstar when a .296-20-88 season is a down year for you. But was it just an off year or is he done? Given his track record, I am willing to bet it was merely an off year for Ramirez’s power and while he likely won’t put together another 40+ home run season, his 30+ days aren’t all gone. In some leagues, he will undoubtedly come at a discount. If you play in such a league, then enjoy the price cut and take a .300-30-100 season to the bank provided he is healthy enough to play 140+ games.

42. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks, OF (24):
Even if you didn’t have an Ichiro or Matt Holliday to cancel out Young’s atrocious average, he still provided outstanding value to the teams he was on in 2007 with a 32-27 rookie season. His skills predicted something closer to .270 and when combined with expected growth from this budding superstar, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see him reach that mark in the upcoming season. He batted 1st in over half of his games and hit for a better average (.251) there than he had in the other two slots where he saw significant time (6th and 7th). So much to like across the board with Young that you almost overlook the average in ’07 and expect to have to absorb something similar in ’08 just to be on the safe side.

41. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies, SS (23):
Only an other-worldly season by Ryan Braun kept Tulowitzki from grabbing hardware for his brilliant debut campaign. While he is your typical Coors Effect hitter (.326 home/.256 road), that does not negate his value no matter how much people may try to make it. Sure, you want to be aware of the fact that he benefits greatly from his home park, but his numbers accumulated in Coors don’t count for any less than if they were done elsewhere! Instead of hitting the 2nd half wall, he surged after the break which bodes well moving forward. Hope for improvement on the home/road splits, but be content if it doesn’t happen this year and take 20+ home runs and 90+ runs batted in from your shortstop.

I should have 21-40 up no later than Wednesday evening as long as everything goes according to schedule. I have also finished my 1st book of 2008, which I will review on Monday night and post no later than Tuesday.