Archive for ‘Player Focus’

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Thursday: 04.3.2008

Stock Up: Todd Wellemeyer

(Originally posted on Rotojunkie.com)

Wellemeyer went 5 innings allowing one run on four hits with six strikeouts. The downside? Three walks! I’m not basing his potential value off of just this starter. Here are his numbers as a starter last year, plus last night’s game:

4-1 W-L
54.3 IP
3.49 ERA
1.37 WHIP
7.0 K/9
1.6 K/BB

Final thought: The sample size isn’t huge at 54 innings, but the performance suggests he merits a spot in deep NL-Only Leagues where you need a starter. If he gets the walks under control (pardon the pun) he could become worthwhile in shallower leagues.

Posted in Data & News, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 03.12.2008

2008 Guide to Middle Reliever Methodology

This was originally posted on Rotojunkie.com, but the board over there has been taken down and moved with the archives disappearing.  I’m posting this years after the fact…

First, let’s get a refresher on the MRM.

The idea is that you acquire three middle relievers amongst your nine pitchers whose stats will combine to give you those of a top flight starting pitcher at 1/5th to maybe ½ of the price. The price you will pay for your “Cheap Cy” as Bod [Bodhizefa, a poster from the board] termed them (and I like it, so I’ll keep it) depends on what echelon of reliever you aim to acquire.

The method is becoming much more prevalent these days (just as Bod predicted back in ’05 when he made brought this to light at RJ), so much so that the Rotoworld.com Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide put a section in their magazine dedicated to specifically to middle relievers. The way for this method to have the most success is to find the next Rafael Betancourt, Jonathan Broxton or Carlos Marmol as opposed to paying the premium for one (or more) of that trio. That said, you don’t avoid these three by any stretch. You will still encounter leagues where middle relievers, even the best, are undervalued. It is rare, but not completely unheard of…

Exclusions for the MRM:
This methodology is not viable in 4×4 leagues unless one of the four categories is strikeouts, though I’ve rarely seen that. It is best employed in standard 5×5 leagues. As the number of categories increases, the methodology will likely decrease in viability because Holds will likely enter the landscape, which automatically shines the spotlight on the landscape of middle relievers.

Tenets for the MRM:
• 3 relievers, 2 is too few unless you get something like Betancourt-Broxton, but then the point of it being a cheap way to improve the pitching is likely eliminated since they’re such high profile. 4 are too many since you’re taking up too many roster spots.

• 1 of your relievers should be a big innings guy. Last year, there were:

o 31 relievers who pitched 70+ IP
o 13 relievers who pitched 80+ IP
o 3 relievers who pitched 90+ IP

• Acquire relievers with high strikeout rates. The bar should be set no lower than 7.0 K/9. Last year, there were:

o 80 relievers who had a 7.0+ K/9
o 51 relievers who had a 8.0+ K/9
o 34 relievers who had a 9.0+ K/9
o 12 relievers who had a 10.0+ K/9
o Those 80 relievers averaged 57 IP
o Those 51 relievers averaged 57 IP
o Those 34 relievers averaged 57 IP
o Those 12 relievers averaged 52 IP

• All three needn’t be above that rate, but the best and most useful will end up there. Don’t eliminate the sub-7.0 K/9 relievers just because of the K-rate.

• That said the 7.0+ K/9 guys are going to be your best bets. With the measure I created to assess relievers, the top 50 middle relievers had an average of 9.1 K/9 and only six of them dropped below the 7.0 mark.

• All of the top 28 were at 7.9 K/9 or above with an average of 9.8 K/9.

• The seven pitchers in the Top 50 that were below 7.0 K/9 had an average of 6.6 K/9.

The List:
• To rank the middle relievers, I ranked the top 126 relievers by ERA, K:BB and K/9. Then I took the rankings of all three categories and weighted the strikeout rates by 1 and the ERA by 2 and divided the total by 3 to come up with a “score”. I don’t know if this is the best system, but I found the results to be viable enough to be useful. Frankly, you could probably just use K/9 and go by that.

• Joba Chamberlain’s remarkable 24-inning cup of coffee last year was far and away the best score at 4.7. He ranked 25.3 points above the 2nd place Jonathan Broxton.

• We’re going to look at things from a few different angles. First let’s look at how the Top 50 ranked using the scoring method I devised:

HTML Code:
RK	PLAYER		        TEAM	LG	IP	W	L	HLD	SV	ERA	RK	K:BB	RK	K/9	RK	TOTAL
1	Joba Chamberlain	NYY	AL	24	2	0	8	1	0.38	1	5.67	2	12.75	2	4.7
2	Jonathan Broxton	LAD	NL	82	4	4	32	2	2.85	27	3.96	4	10.87	8	30.0
3	Jensen Lewis		CLE	AL	29.1	1	1	5	0	2.15	13	3.40	13	10.52	9	30.7
4	Rafael Perez		CLE	AL	60.2	1	2	12	1	1.78	4	4.13	3	9.27	28	33.7
5	Rafael Betancourt	CLE	AL	79.1	5	1	31	3	1.47	3	8.89	1	9.10	31	34.0
6	George Sherrill		BAL	AL	45.2	2	0	22	3	2.36	20	3.29	18	11.15	5	36.3
7	Carlos Marmol		CHC	NL	69.1	5	1	16	1	1.43	2	2.74	32	12.50	3	36.3
8	Heath Bell		SDG	NL	93.2	6	4	34	2	2.02	10	3.40	14	9.85	16	36.7
9	Russ Springer		STL	NL	66	8	1	11	0	2.18	15	3.47	9	9.00	32	51.0
10	Damaso Marte		PIT	NL	45.1	2	0	15	0	2.38	21	2.83	30	10.18	12	56.0
11	Joaquin Benoit		TEX	AL	82	7	4	19	6	2.85	28	3.11	24	9.55	19	61.7
12	Juan Cruz		ARI	NL	61	6	1	4	0	3.10	43	2.72	34	12.84	1	63.7
13	Justin Speier		LAA	AL	50	2	3	24	0	2.88	29	3.92	5	8.46	43	67.3
14	Hideki Okajima		BOS	AL	69	3	2	27	5	2.22	16	3.71	7	8.22	51	68.7
15	Octavio Dotel		CHW	AL	30.2	2	1	1	11	4.11	83	3.42	12	12.22	4	71.3
16	Troy Percival		TAM	AL	39	3	0	3	0	1.85	7	3.40	15	7.85	53	72.7
17	Pat Neshek		MIN	AL	70.1	7	2	15	0	2.94	31	2.74	33	9.50	20	73.7
18	Justin Miller		FLA	NL	61.2	5	0	17	0	3.65	64	3.08	25	10.88	7	74.7
19	Chad Qualls		ARI	NL	82.2	6	5	21	5	3.05	37	3.12	23	8.54	42	89.7
20	Bob Howry		CHC	NL	81.1	6	7	22	8	3.32	52	3.79	6	7.99	52	92.7
21	Scott Downs		TOR	AL	58	4	2	24	1	2.17	14	2.38	49	8.84	36	94.3
22	Ryan Rowland-Smith	SEA	AL	38.2	1	0	3	0	3.96	78	2.80	31	9.90	14	97.0
23	Dan Wheeler		TAM	AL	74.2	1	9	18	11	5.30	116	3.57	8	9.95	13	98.3
24	Manny Delcarmen		BOS	AL	44	0	0	11	1	2.05	11	2.41	47	8.39	45	99.3
25	Al Reyes		TAM	AL	60.2	2	4	0	26	4.90	110	3.33	17	10.47	10	100.3
26	Chris Schroder		WAS	NL	45.1	2	3	1	0	3.18	47	2.87	29	8.58	40	100.3
27	Matt Lindstrom		FLA	NL	67	3	4	19	0	3.09	42	2.95	26	8.33	47	101.0
28	Michael Wuertz		CHC	NL	72.1	2	3	8	0	3.48	58	2.26	58	9.86	15	111.7
29	Matt Guerrier		MIN	AL	88	2	4	14	1	2.35	18	3.24	19	6.95	83	114.0
30	Fernando Rodney		DET	AL	50.2	2	6	12	1	4.26	89	2.57	39	9.68	18	116.3
31	Jeremy Accardo		TOR	NL	67.1	4	4	2	30	2.14	12	2.38	50	7.65	59	117.0
32	Bobby Seay		DET	AL	46.1	3	0	10	1	2.33	17	2.53	41	7.42	66	118.3
33	John Bale		KAN	AL	40	1	1	5	0	4.05	82	2.47	44	9.45	21	119.7
34	Rudy Seanez		LAD	NL	76	6	3	4	1	3.79	70	2.70	35	8.64	39	120.7
35	Brian Fuentes		COL	NL	61.1	3	5	8	20	3.08	40	2.43	46	8.25	49	121.7
36	Jon Rauch		WAS	NL	87.1	8	4	33	4	3.61	63	3.38	16	7.34	68	126.0
37	Jimmy Gobble		KAN	AL	53.2	4	1	16	1	3.02	33	2.17	63	8.46	44	129.0
38	Joe Smith		NYM	NL	44.1	3	2	10	0	3.45	56	2.14	64	9.18	29	130.3
39	Andrew Brown		OAK	AL	41.2	3	3	3	0	4.54	97	2.53	42	9.39	24	130.7
40	Tim Byrdak		DET	AL	45	3	0	8	1	3.20	49	1.88	82	9.80	17	131.7
41	Jason Frasor		TOR	AL	57	1	5	4	3	4.58	100	2.57	40	9.32	27	133.7
42	Scot Shields		LAA	AL	77	4	5	31	2	3.86	75	2.33	52	9.00	33	135.0
43	Lee Gardner		FLA	AL	74.1	3	4	9	2	1.94	9	2.89	28	6.32	101	135.0
44	Lenny DiNardo		OAK	AL	34.2	1	2	0	0	1.82	6	3.14	21	5.79	113	138.0
45	Randy Flores		STL	NL	55	3	0	14	1	4.25	88	3.13	22	7.69	58	138.7
46	Aaron Heilman		NYM	NL	86	7	7	22	1	3.03	36	3.15	20	6.59	97	141.0
47	Pedro Feliciano		NYM	NL	64	2	2	18	2	3.09	41	1.97	73	8.58	41	141.3
48	Cla Meredith		SDG	NL	79.2	5	6	10	0	3.50	59	3.47	11	6.70	94	144.3
49	Santiago Casilla	OAK	AL	50.2	3	1	12	2	4.44	95	2.26	57	9.32	26	146.3
50	Joel Peralta		KAN	AL	87.2	1	3	7	1	3.80	71	3.47	10	6.81	89	146.3

• This list gives you the track record guys. Of course, that segues perfectly for me to mention something about this methodology as a whole: relievers are remarkably volatile. From year-to-year, things will change. On the positive, this allows you to find hidden gems. On the negative, you could invest in “sure things” and watch them blow up in your face. This caveat is why it’s smarter to invest less in your trio so that if things aren’t working out by June, then you can cut bait and try another.

• The next list is those 81 relievers that topped 7.0+ K/9 ranked by strikeouts per nine innings:

HTML Code:
RK	PLAYER		       TEAM	LG	IP	W	L	HLD	SV	ERA	RK	K:BB	RK	K/9	RK	TOTAL
12	Juan Cruz		ARI	NL	61	6	1	4	0	3.10	43	2.72	34	12.84	1	63.7
1	Joba Chamberlain	NYY	AL	24	2	0	8	1	0.38	1	5.67	2	12.75	2	4.7
7	Carlos Marmol		CHC	NL	69.1	5	1	16	1	1.43	2	2.74	32	12.50	3	36.3
15	Octavio Dotel		CHW	AL	30.2	2	1	1	11	4.11	83	3.42	12	12.22	4	71.3
6	George Sherrill		BAL	AL	45.2	2	0	22	3	2.36	20	3.29	18	11.15	5	36.3
53	Derrick Turnbow		MIL	NL	68	4	5	33	1	4.63	101	1.83	84	11.12	6	157.3
18	Justin Miller		FLA	NL	61.2	5	0	17	0	3.65	64	3.08	25	10.88	7	74.7
2	Jonathan Broxton	LAD	NL	82	4	4	32	2	2.85	27	3.96	4	10.87	8	30.0
3	Jensen Lewis		CLE	AL	29.1	1	1	5	0	2.15	13	3.40	13	10.52	9	30.7
25	Al Reyes		TAM	AL	60.2	2	4	0	26	4.90	110	3.33	17	10.47	10	100.3
56	Armando Benitez		FLA	NL	50.1	2	8	11	9	5.36	117	1.97	74	10.24	11	163.0
10	Damaso Marte		PIT	NL	45.1	2	0	15	0	2.38	21	2.83	30	10.18	12	56.0
23	Dan Wheeler		TAM	AL	74.2	1	9	18	11	5.30	116	3.57	8	9.95	13	98.3
22	Ryan Rowland-Smith	SEA	AL	38.2	1	0	3	0	3.96	78	2.80	31	9.90	14	97.0
28	Michael Wuertz		CHC	NL	72.1	2	3	8	0	3.48	58	2.26	58	9.86	15	111.7
8	Heath Bell		SDG	NL	93.2	6	4	34	2	2.02	10	3.40	14	9.85	16	36.7
40	Tim Byrdak		DET	AL	45	3	0	8	1	3.20	49	1.88	82	9.80	17	131.7
30	Fernando Rodney		DET	AL	50.2	2	6	12	1	4.26	89	2.57	39	9.68	18	116.3
11	Joaquin Benoit		TEX	AL	82	7	4	19	6	2.85	28	3.11	24	9.55	19	61.7
17	Pat Neshek		MIN	AL	70.1	7	2	15	0	2.94	31	2.74	33	9.50	20	73.7
33	John Bale		KAN	AL	40	1	1	5	0	4.05	82	2.47	44	9.45	21	119.7
80	Brandon Morrow		SEA	AL	63.1	3	4	18	0	4.12	84	1.32	120	9.41	22	198.0
54	Tyler Yates		ATL	AL	66	2	3	13	2	5.18	115	2.23	59	9.41	23	158.7
39	Andrew Brown		OAK	AL	41.2	3	3	3	0	4.54	97	2.53	42	9.39	24	130.7
64	Taylor Tankersley	FLA	NL	47.1	6	1	16	1	3.99	80	1.69	97	9.36	25	175.3
49	Santiago Casilla	OAK	AL	50.2	3	1	12	2	4.44	95	2.26	57	9.32	26	146.3
41	Jason Frasor		TOR	AL	57	1	5	4	3	4.58	100	2.57	40	9.32	27	133.7
4	Rafael Perez		CLE	AL	60.2	1	2	12	1	1.78	4	4.13	3	9.27	28	33.7
38	Joe Smith		NYM	NL	44.1	3	2	10	0	3.45	56	2.14	64	9.18	29	130.3
83	Jack Taschner		SFO	NL	50	3	1	13	0	5.40	119	1.76	92	9.18	30	201.3
5	Rafael Betancourt	CLE	AL	79.1	5	1	31	3	1.47	3	8.89	1	9.10	31	34.0
9	Russ Springer		STL	NL	66	8	1	11	0	2.18	15	3.47	9	9.00	32	51.0
42	Scot Shields		LAA	AL	77	4	5	31	2	3.86	75	2.33	52	9.00	33	135.0
55	Mark McLemore		HOU	NL	35	3	0	1	0	3.86	76	1.94	76	9.00	34	160.7
65	Trever Miller		TB	AL	46.1	0	0	12	1	4.86	108	2.00	69	8.98	35	176.0
21	Scott Downs		TOR	AL	58	4	2	24	1	2.17	14	2.38	49	8.84	36	94.3
61	Matt Thornton		CHW	AL	56.1	4	4	17	2	4.79	106	2.12	65	8.82	37	172.7
63	Renyel Pinto		FLA	NL	58.2	2	4	16	1	3.68	66	1.75	93	8.66	38	175.0
34	Rudy Seanez		LAD	NL	76	6	3	4	1	3.79	70	2.70	35	8.64	39	120.7
26	Chris Schroder		WAS	NL	45.1	2	3	1	0	3.18	47	2.87	29	8.58	40	100.3
47	Pedro Feliciano		NYM	NL	64	2	2	18	2	3.09	41	1.97	73	8.58	41	141.3
19	Chad Qualls		ARI	NL	82.2	6	5	21	5	3.05	37	3.12	23	8.54	42	89.7
13	Justin Speier		LAA	AL	50	2	3	24	0	2.88	29	3.92	5	8.46	43	67.3
37	Jimmy Gobble		KAN	AL	53.2	4	1	16	1	3.02	33	2.17	63	8.46	44	129.0
24	Manny Delcarmen		BOS	AL	44	0	0	11	1	2.05	11	2.41	47	8.39	45	99.3
92	Jon Coutlangus		CIN	NL	41	4	2	9	0	4.39	93	1.41	117	8.34	46	225.0
27	Matt Lindstrom		FLA	NL	67	3	4	19	0	3.09	42	2.95	26	8.33	47	101.0
52	C.J. Wilson		TEX	AL	68.1	2	1	15	12	3.03	35	1.91	80	8.33	48	151.3
35	Brian Fuentes		COL	NL	61.1	3	5	8	20	3.08	40	2.43	46	8.25	49	121.7
73	Will Ohman		ATL	NL	36.1	2	4	12	1	4.95	111	2.06	66	8.23	50	190.0
14	Hideki Okajima		BOS	AL	69	3	2	27	5	2.22	16	3.71	7	8.22	51	68.7
20	Bob Howry		CHC	NL	81.1	6	7	22	8	3.32	52	3.79	6	7.99	52	92.7
16	Troy Percival		TAM	AL	39	3	0	3	0	1.85	7	3.40	15	7.85	53	72.7
58	Brian Tallet		TOR	AL	62.1	2	4	1	0	3.47	57	1.93	78	7.83	54	170.0
97	Scott Eyre		CHC	NL	52.1	2	1	5	0	4.13	85	1.29	122	7.77	55	233.7
62	Salomon Torres		MIL	NL	52.2	2	4	5	12	5.47	120	2.65	37	7.76	56	173.0
77	Kevin Cameron		SDG	NL	58	2	0	1	0	2.79	26	1.39	119	7.76	57	193.3
45	Randy Flores		STL	NL	55	3	0	14	1	4.25	88	3.13	22	7.69	58	138.7
31	Jeremy Accardo		TOR	NL	67.1	4	4	2	30	2.14	12	2.38	50	7.65	59	117.0
82	Todd Coffey		CIN	NL	51	2	1	7	0	5.82	124	2.26	56	7.59	60	198.7
74	Dustin Nippert		ARI	NL	45.1	1	1	2	0	5.56	121	2.38	51	7.58	61	192.7
66	Jared Burton		CIN	NL	43	4	2	11	0	2.51	23	1.64	100	7.53	62	177.3
107	Frank Francisco		TEX	AL	59.1	1	1	21	0	4.55	98	1.29	121	7.46	63	249.3
98	Juan Rincon		MIN	AL	59.2	3	3	14	0	5.13	114	1.75	94	7.45	64	234.0
102	Luis Vizcaino		COL	NL	75.1	8	2	14	0	4.30	91	1.44	115	7.43	65	240.7
32	Bobby Seay		DET	AL	46.1	3	0	10	1	2.33	17	2.53	41	7.42	66	118.3
75	John Grabow		PIT	NL	51.2	3	2	8	1	4.53	96	2.21	62	7.38	67	193.0
36	Jon Rauch		WAS	NL	87.1	8	4	33	4	3.61	63	3.38	16	7.34	68	126.0
95	Joel Zumaya		DET	AL	33.2	2	3	8	1	4.28	90	1.59	104	7.32	69	233.0
59	Matt Wise		NYM	NL	53.2	3	2	13	1	4.19	86	2.53	43	7.27	70	170.3
71	Tom Gordon		PHI	NL	40	3	2	14	6	4.73	103	2.46	45	7.20	71	184.7
96	Kyle Farnsworth		NYY	AL	60	2	1	15	0	4.80	107	1.78	90	7.20	72	233.3
67	Darren Oliver		LAA	AL	64.1	3	1	8	0	3.78	69	2.22	61	7.16	73	180.0
78	Guillermo Mota		MIL	NL	59.1	2	2	6	0	5.76	123	2.61	38	7.16	74	194.0
110	Brandon Medders		ARI	NL	29.1	1	2	1	0	4.30	92	1.44	116	7.11	75	252.3
90	Jason Grilli		DET	AL	79.2	5	3	11	0	4.74	104	1.94	77	7.05	76	222.3
118	Brian Bruney		NYY	AL	50	3	2	6	0	4.68	102	1.05	125	7.02	77	270.0
101	Jeremy Affeldt		CIN	NL	59	4	3	9	0	3.51	60	1.39	118	7.02	78	236.0
117	Jonah Bayliss		PIT	NL	37.2	4	3	4	0	8.36	126	1.61	102	7.02	79	265.0
99	Sean Green		SEA	AL	68	5	2	13	0	3.84	74	1.56	105	7.01	80	234.3

FYI: The rank on the far left of the above list is their overall rank using my devised scoring method.

The usefulness of the above is list that it is where you are likely to find the diamonds in the rough.

Here is a breakdown of those Top 81 in strikeout rates by League:
o National League: 42
o American League: 39

Diamonds in the Rough (these are the guys most likely to be the next Betancourts and Broxtons):
o 1 Rafael Perez, CLE
o 2 Justin Miller, FLA
o 3 Matt Guerrier, MIN
o 4 Jensen Lewis, CLE
o 5 Santiago Casilla, OAK
o 6 Michael Wuertz, CHC
o 7 Juan Cruz, ARI
o 8 Matt Lindstrom, FLA
o 9 Brandon Morrow, SEA
o 10 Taylor Tankersley, FLA
o 11 Tony Pena, ARI
o 12 Joel Peralta, KC
o 13 Chris Schroder, WAS
o 14 Jimmy Gobble, KC
o 15 Bobby Seay, DET
o 16 Joe Smith, NYM
o 17 Andrew Brown, OAK
o 18 Manny Delcarmen, BOS
o 19 Pedro Feliciano, NYM
o 20 Mark McLemore, HOU
o 21 Justin Speier, LAA
o 22 Tim Byrdak, DET
o 23 Kevin Cameron, SD
o 24 John Bale, KC
o 25 Peter Moylan, ATL

Grandpas (these guys had solid seasons last year, but they are ridiculously old, so it’s tough to bet on a repeat):
o 1 Russ Springer, 39 y/o
o 2 Al Reyes, 37 y/o
o 3 Rudy Seanez, 39 y/o
o 4 Trever Miller, 34 y/o

The Known Commodities (these guys are the premier middle relief aces as well as the steady, unheralded relievers :
o 1 Jonathan Broxton
o 2 Rafael Betancourt
o 3 Carlos Marmol
o 4 Joba Chamberlain
o 5 Heath Bell
o 6 Scot Shields
o 7 Aaron Heilman
o 8 Pat Neshek
o 9 Dan Wheeler
o 10 Hideki Okajima
o 11 Chad Qualls
o 12 Joaquin Benoit
o 13 Scott Proctor
o 14 Bob Howry
o 15 Fernando Rodney
o 16 Derrick Turnbow
o 17 Octavio Dotel
o 18 Damaso Marte
o 19 Jeremy Accardo
o 20 Al Reyes

Examples: (I’ll close with a series of combos from last year to show how the method works)
o Heath Bell, Peter Moylan and Scott Proctor:
o 276.7 IP
o 15-13 W-L
o 2.51 ERA
o 1.14 WHIP
o 229 K

o Matt Guerrier, Justin Miller and Joel Peralta:
o 237.3 IP
o 8-7 W-L
o 3.22 ERA
o 1.18 WHIP
o 208 K

o Rafael Betancourt, Joaquin Benoit and Aaron Heilman:
o 247.3 IP
o 19-12 W-L
o 2.48 ERA
o 1.00 WHIP
o 230 K

o Jonathan Broxton, Pedro Feliciano and Jon Rauch:
o 233.3 IP
o 14-10 W-L
o 3.20 ERA
o 1.15 WHIP
o 231 K

o Cla Meredith, Pat Neshek and Matt Thornton:
o 205.3 IP
o 16-12 W-L
o 3.68 ERA
o 1.30 WHIP
o 188 K

o Scott Downs, Rafael Perez and Justin Speier:
o 168.7 IP
o 7-7 W-L
o 2.25 ERA
o 1.04 WHIP
o 166 K

A few final thoughts:

• Patience can be rewarded, but it’s a method that allows you a choice between patience and knee-jerk reactions. Personally, I give my guys that I target a fair shot to perform. Remember, relievers have small samples so one outing can balloon an ERA, but if they are still blowing batters away, then they are going to hold their bullpen spot and get a fair chance bring that ERA down. If you loved someone in the offseason and acquired them and then they suffer a rough April in six innings of work, but still hold a 9 K/9 or something like that, then I’d stand pat with them.

• Even if you plan to be patient with your initial picks, this method (like scouring for saves) takes in-season leg work. Always be alert of the next big thing. Carlos Marmol didn’t pitch until May 19th last year!

• If you start paying mid-teens in auctions for the upper-echelon of middle relievers, you’re not employing the strategy properly. The point is to get top 15-20 starter numbers for next-to-nothing cost.

• I’ll close with a few DEEEEEP sleepers:
o Kerry Wood, CHC
o Edwar Ramirez, NYY
o Renyel Pinto, FLA
o Vinnie Chulk, SF
o Wil Ledezma, SD
o Jack Taschner, SF
o Jon Coutlangus, CIN
o Guillermo Mota, MIL
o Lenny DiNardo, OAK
o Zach Miner, DET
o Tyler Yates, ATL
o David Aardsma, CHW
o Royce Ring, ATL

There it is, folks. I hope this helps you if you choose to employ what I believe is a very viable strategy. Please feel free to ask any questions or offer any players you think will be useful pieces in this strategy. Enjoy!

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Middle Reliever Method, Player Focus, Rankings, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 02.26.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: Version 3.0

Plenty of movement in the third version of my Top 100, but it is the same 100 from early February. At the top is the expected bump that Albert Pujols takes because of the increased injury worries. I’m absolutely a huge fan of his, but I can’t say the elbow isn’t troubling enough to take a 5-spot tumble. The four others behind him obviously get the one spot move and I also flip-flopped Carl Crawford and Grady Sizemore. Sizemore is more complete with the proven three-year base of power, while Crawford’s power remains filed under that fanciful “p” word. Granted, Crawford does offer more speed, but speed is more readily available than power on the landscape at large, so Sizemore gets the nod. Those were the only moves within the Top 20.

There was a bit of shifting amongst the bottom five of the next 20 with Carlos Guillen and Manny Ramirez being the beneficiaries with two and three spot jumps, respectively. Nothing too groundbreaking, but just some run of the mill shuffling that will continue to occur as I read more and Spring Training kicks into full force. In the 41-60 block, there was a lot of minor shuffling as a result of big moves down for Hunter Pence (7 spots) and Shane Victorino (11 spots). As I mentioned earlier, speed is more plentiful than originally thought making a jack-rabbit like Victorino a bit less appealing when viewed against the likes of mashers like Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe and Hideki Matsui. Pence’s drop was a combination of his journey through a plate glass window and the fact that I may have rated him a bit too highly out of the gate given the lack of sample size to judge him.

A group of middle infielders in the 61-80 group took a tumble with Michael Young taking the brunt of it (12 spot drop). Aaron Hill and Edgar Renteria joined him with four spot slides. Having been through more drafts since the last update, I’m seeing scarcity in the outfield if you don’t act early and often, so Vernon Wells and Jason Bay are beneficiaries. The same outfield scarcity issue took control of the 81-100 block as all but five players moved spots. Delmon Young, Matt Kemp, Jeff Francoeur and Andruw Jones all enjoyed strong gains in the latest Top 100.

Juan Pierre was the only outfielder in this group that took a hit and again, it is because his key asset (immense speed) is no longer as rare on the fantasy landscape. Rickie Weeks and Alex Gordon both saw upticks as they leapt over a group primarily contained of pitchers. Felix Hernandez took his second straight dip in the Top 100, but it’s not because I dislike him in the least. I actually like him a good bit in 2008 and no starting pitchers passed him this time around, instead it was the aforementioned hitters.

And now, for version 3.0:

Posted in All BbP Originals, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Top 100 | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 02.1.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: Version 2.0

I did some significant re-working to the initial Top 100, which shouldn’t come as much of a surprise given how early the first version was released. My most egregious omission is doubly painful since I’m such a huge proponent of this guy, but fear not, Ian Kinsler debuts in v2.0 with a very solid ranking. Given how much I love speed-combo guys and how many times during the capsules I mentioned that 2B wasn’t the barren wasteland it once was, I chalk it up to little more than a ball-drop on my part.

Only one other debut as Cole Hamels cracked the Top 100 with a vengeance checking in at #85. The two that paid for Hamels’ and Kinsler’s entries were Mike Lowell and Jim Thome. I have got nothing against either player and they both offer a pretty solid set of numbers, but one of the key factors with a list like this is with a lot of these guys, you are looking for them to improve upon a foundation that they have previously laid out. Now that isn’t the case with every guy because I still left plenty of oldies on the list, but just think about the four guys in question, are you taking Hamels and Kinsler or Lowell and Thome?

Some big tumblers within this first update were Miguel Tejada as the steroids issue looks like it could be clamping down on him, also I bumped Daisuke Matsuzaka quite a bit not because I’ve soured on his ability and projections for 2008, but more so because I like others ahead of him after further review into the starting pitching landscape. Aaron Hill is a favorite of mine coming into the season, but I feel I was a little overzealous with his initial ranking, so I tempered things and bumped him down to #73.

Anyway enough chatter, here is version 2.0 of my Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Rankings:

Posted in All BbP Originals, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Top 100 | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 01.18.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: 1-20

Phew, I made it. After 11,667 words, the initial compilation of the top 100 fantasy baseball players is complete! Below are the final 20 pieces to the puzzle that is filled with familiar names, but not necessarily in the expected spots. I am confident with the rankings, though I have no doubt that many of you will have different takes on whom belongs where. I have tried to show my reasoning for each player’s position in the 100-word (or so) blurbs written about each player, but if you want more explanation for why someone is above or below someone, then please don’t hesitate to contact me at the email address found in the closing below. And now, the top 20:

20. Carlos Beltran – New York Mets, OF (31):
Beltran figured out lefties last year (.304), but then righties gave him trouble (.265). He put up a brilliant second half and though he is on the other of 30 years old, he is still a bona fide superstar. The 40-home run power of 2006 is unlikely to return, but 30-20 with 100 runs scored and driven in, each. Peripheral numbers point to a near .300 average, but he has yet to deliver that since he headed to the Big Apple. Look for him to finally get the extra base hits to reach the appropriate level and give his owners all five categories.

19. Johan Santana – Minnesota Twins (for now), SP (29):
He is still the best pitcher in the game regardless of which team he is on at the start of the season. Owners may have been disappointed by the 3.33 earned run average and the win-loss record, but they are likely idiots. He was still 7th in the American League in ERA and 2nd in strikeouts with the 15 wins good enough for 6th. If there was anything to worry about, it was the 33 home runs that was worst in the league, but then you consider he was still able to put up those numbers in spite of the bombs and the worry goes away quickly. Don’t get cute and try to take any other pitcher before him.

18. David Ortiz – Boston Red Sox, DH (32):
Offers the insane raw power of an Adam Dunn, but includes a sparkling .300 batting average. Despite losing 19 home runs off of his total from ’06, his power index didn’t match the drop meaning significant ground was not lost. The three steals tripled his career high making him a true 5-category threat! I couldn’t even type that with a straight face. He is, however, an excellent 4-category threat meaning you can safely ignore the limitations on position eligibility and take the huge numbers.

17. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers, 3B (24):
You couldn’t possibly script a better debut campaign if you tried. Braun’s first season was absolutely flawless from a fantasy baseball perspective… unless of course your league counts defense, in which case, yikes! I expect a slight regression, but a sophomore slump is unlikely based on last year. If he drops significantly anywhere, I could see it in the batting average, but he should still hit around .280. The age, power and speed at third base won’t be on the board for long and unlikely to be had cheaply, but the numbers justify the cost.

16. Ryan Howard – Philadelphia Phillies, 1B (28):
Puts up the numbers of David Ortiz with the ridiculously raw power, but trades a few batting average points for position eligibility and a few extra years. Figured out lefties during the MVP campaign of 2006, but lost it again last year, which was a big cause for the dip down to .268. If he jumps back up to into the .280s, he is back to being a 4-category guy. Even if not, pay for 50 home runs and enjoy!

15. Prince Fielder – Milwaukee Brewers, 1B (23):
Wow! How excited should we be about a 50-home run hitter that is just 23 years old? Extremely. If he continues to improve, we could see our first 60+ home run season since Barry Bonds’ 73 in 2001. And there’s more, he also has legitimate potential to hit .300 with the power. I realize that players are not completely in control of this, but I want to see more runs batted in out of Fielder before ranking him closer to the top 10.

14. Mark Teixeira – Atlanta Braves, 1B (28):
Big Tex left Texas for the National League and his power returned! He hit a home run per 22 at-bats with the Rangers in 78 games and then one per 12 at-bats with the Braves in 54 games. Had he not missed 30 games, he would have paced out to 37 home runs, but his Atlanta pace translates to 51 home runs. The 2006 power failure (by his standards) is the aberration, so the rejuvenation in Atlanta makes Tex an elite power source once again.

13. Brandon Phillips – Cincinnati Reds, 2B (26):
Remember when Phillips was one of baseball’s top prospects? It took him awhile, but he now cashing in on the potential and he is still only 26!!! He has back-to-back career years that are surprising because he had been left for dead, but not because he doesn’t have the talent to sustain. He is an excellent 5-category star at a relatively thin position. I’m giving Chase Utley the nod as the top second basemen only because of a deeper track record, but that may change as the winter evolves. Stay tuned.

12. Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians, OF (25):
I was huge on Sizemore for 2007, going so far as to name him my American League MVP. Well things didn’t quite pan out that way (though he did notch 15 MVP points), but he still had a great year. He gave back some home runs and average (despite figuring out lefties) in exchange for 11 more stolen bases, which was essentially a wash. I don’t think he is close to his ceiling with a 30-30 season on the horizon and possibly even this season. He is a true fantasy baseball cornerstone, both now and in the future.

11. Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays, OF (26):
His past four seasons are a model for consistency and still Crawford is often somewhat underrated. He has the ability to add 20 home runs to the ridiculous speed and he nearly did in 2006. Watch some of those doubles get over the wall in 2008 as he creeps near that 20-mark again. Eventually, the speed will fade as he goes for more power, but it won’t happen this season. There is nothing to dislike about what Crawford brings to the table, bid high.

And down the stretch we come…

10. Matt Holliday – Colorado Rockies, OF (28):
Prior to the 2007 season, I dealt a $20 Holliday for $5 Jeremy Hermida, $5 Troy Tulowitzki and $9 Dave Bush. Whoops. He nearly outhit the two, trailing them by six home runs and 25 runs batted in while crushing them batting average: .293 to .340, plus he only used up one roster spot! I mentioned it in Tulowitzki’s profile and I’ll do so again, who cares if he benefits greatly from playing in Coors Field? His OPS on the road is .860 against 1.157 at home, but all of the numbers count equally meaning Holliday is a fantasy baseball beast. A .300-40-130 season could be in store for his owners in 2008.

9. Miguel Cabrera – Detroit Tigers, 3B (25):
I think the trade to the Detroit Tigers pumped him up five-to-seven spots as he joins one of the league’s best lineups and leaves one of the worst. He is reported to be in shape after weight was a problem in ’07 meaning he could be ready for an MVP season in Motown. The lineup around him will take care of the runs scored and batted in, while he does the rest en route to a .310-120-40-150-5 season. Can you believe he is only 25? Dang, it’s good to be a Tigers fan!

8. Alfonso Soriano – Chicago Cubs, OF (32):
I can’t figure out why early mock drafts are seemingly down on Soriano in 2008. In one draft, I saw him slip to 17th, while I got him 12th in a 20-team early mock. He is just two years removed from the 40-40 season. Now, I don’t mention that because I see another in ’08 because he simply won’t run enough in Chicago, especially if he drops in lineup, but rather to point out that he is still a superstar. He dropped 33-19 in 135 games, which is a 40-23 pace in a full season. He has a very reliable skill set that is hard not to love. Even at 32, a 30-30 season is possible.

7. Chase Utley – Philadelphia Phillies, 2B (29):
A broken hand derailed another brilliant season, but he rebounded nicely leaving no warning signs moving into this season. The speed is declining, even if you extrapolate the steals over the entire season, but that is more than acceptable when you consider a .300-30-100 from second base. As I mentioned earlier, I am leaning towards giving Brandon Phillips the nod as the best second basemen, but Utley’s stronger track record, more power potential and higher run producing ceiling (125 RBIs a real possibility) allow him to hang onto the spot… for now.

6. Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies, SS (29):
I didn’t create this list to pat myself on the back (see: Holliday, Matt), but in my main NL-Only league, my co-owner and I made Rollins our primary, big-salary target. Well imagine if we had kept Holliday, we might have finished higher than 6th place. He put everything together for an MVP season, managing a .296 average despite setting a major-league record for at-bats with 716. He gave his owners a 30-40 season from shortstop while scoring nearly 140 runs and driving nearly 100 more. It was a career-year, to be sure, but plenty of this is sustainable so don’t expect a huge drop off in ’08. He is going to score another boatload of runs with two teammates of his in the top 20, and still another in the top 50. Scariest thing? There are two more shortstops to come.

5. Albert Pujols – St. Louis Cardinals, 1B (28):
He had more nagging injuries than the guy in the game Operation which no doubt led to the “down” year he labored through in 2007. He played through the injuries (158 games played) meaning they weren’t serious, but they clearly took their toll as he dropped below 40 home runs for the first time in five years and didn’t offer his customary handful of steals (two all year). All of this could result in an undervalued (relative to his superstar colleagues) Pujols, which makes him an even stronger buy.

4. David Wright – New York Mets, 3B (25):
If your cornerstone draft pick or auction buy flops in April, look at Wright’s 2007 April before giving up: 90 at-bats, 22 hits (.244 average), zero home runs, six runs batted and three stolen bases. Ouch. Of course, he ended with a .325 average, 30 home runs, 107 runs batted in and 34 stolen bases. It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon and Wright’s MVP-worthy season is one of hundreds of examples of that idiom. Had he shown up in April, he might have notched baseball’s second 40-40 season in a row. Third base is pretty deep, but things get started with Wright and his Big Apple counterpart, who we’ll get to in a moment.

3. Jose Reyes – New York Mets, SS (24):
The most interesting thing about Reyes and his teammate from a moment ago is that they are 24 and 25, respectively. That is absurd. Reyes has developed some legitimate patience allowing him to get on base more, resulting in a career-high for stolen bases. He showed the power potential in 2006, but a 1st half power outage kept him from the 20-home run mark. The absurd speed alone makes him worth the premium paid, but the enormous runs scored totals and potential to give his owner 20 bombs nets him this top 3 ranking.

2. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins, SS (24):
It is frightening to this that he could legitimately post a 35-60 season with a huge average and solid team-dependent offerings. For now, focus on the .300-30-50 season he delivered in 2007 despite a torn left labrum. He received surgery and he will be ready for Spring Training, but potential effects from the surgery is enough to hold back on predicting the 35-60 season, instead let’s sit back and just pray for it. Miguel Cabrera’s departure could sap some runs from his total, but a capable cast could pick up the slack and keep him near the 115-mark. With Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell successful in Boston, this trade is shaping up to truly be an even one.

1. Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees, 3B (32):
Erased doubts that he is the game’s best player with a remarkable MVP campaign in 2007 and nothing suggests another such season isn’t forthcoming. It seems that it wasn’t a matter of whether or not A-Rod could put up those numbers, but rather whether or not he wanted to put up those numbers. He might have even posted a .320+ average had he continued his previous success against left-handers. The only possible scary thing about him is that even-numbered years haven’t been kind to him in his Yankee tenure, but that is more coincidental than anything else, bid high and bid confidently.

So there it is, folks, my top 100 fantasy baseball players. As most everything is, it will be subject to change, but I am confident with the initial offering. I worked and re-worked the opening list several times, so I will almost assuredly have four or five changes ready for you when version 2.0 is released later. For now, I hope you have enjoyed the time and effort that I put into the list and write-ups of each player. I do appreciate the feedback I have received thus far and welcome all of it. Some of you have sent specific questions about trades and draft picks for mocks that you’re in that don’t pertain to players in the top 100 and I’m completely fine with that. I aim to respond to any and all questions within 24 hours of their receipt. If you prefer email over commenting and don’t have the address it is as follows: sporer (at sign) gmail.com

One final treat, here are three breakdowns of the Top 100 by the numbers:

Posted in All BbP Originals, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Top 100 | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 01.17.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: 21-40

I’m almost done with the complete release of my first version of the Top 100 with the second 20 found below. If I am unable to finish the final 20 by tomorrow night, then it might be delayed until Sunday because I will be away Friday & Saturday and I work 8-5 on Sunday. Even still, it’s only mid-January, so the pace is still fine. Thank you to all who have emailed and commented about the list. I have no problem with any and all comments, even if you disagree with a particular player’s inclusion and/or slotting. Here are players 21 through 40 (age in parentheses, as always):

40. Aramis Ramirez – Chicago Cubs, 3B (29):
Anytime you can post you put up 26 home runs and 101 runs batted in despite only 132 games, you’re pretty damn good. In fact, he has averaged exactly 30 home runs in each of his seven full seasons. Throw in a .300 average and you have one of the most elite third basemen in the game. He is still on the right said of 30 (but hits that age in late June of this season) and with a clean bill of health he could easily reach 35 home runs again.

39. Travis Hafner – Cleveland Indians, DH (30):
Hafner broke the four-year trend of improving power and run production with his worst year as a full-time player. I bet there are quite a few guys that would like their worst year to be 24 home runs and 100 runs batted in. He had real trouble getting under the ball with his highest groundball rate ever at 48%, which sapped the power as he lost 18 home runs off of his 2007 total. Obviously with this ranking, I am predicting a full rebound and I like him to return to the 35-40 home run area. The DH-only aspect of Hafner scares some off, but you draft talent and numbers and worry about position flexibility later.

38. Carlos Guillen – Detroit Tigers, SS/1B (32):
The move to first base is supposed to be a knee-saving move for Guillen and the Tigers and that clearly bodes well for his fantasy owners, too. He puts up corner-like numbers with shortstop eligibility making him an excellent fantasy option. He is no doubt the 4th-best shortstop behind the three R’s (Ramirez, Reyes and Rollins) and if he is able to play his third straight season of 150+ games, he will almost certainly put up 20-15 with a near .300 average.

37. Derrek Lee – Chicago Cubs, 1B (32):
In all of the mock drafts I have seen thus far, Lee is probably one of the most underrated stars going a round or two later than I think he is worth. He looked like the Lee of old in the second half with 16 home runs. Even in a down year for his power (22 total home runs), he was still one of the league’s best hitters with a .317 average. I like a full rebound to the career-high 2005 levels especially in that lineup.

36. Corey Hart – Milwaukee Brewers, OF (26):
I am pretty sure I mentioned early on in the rankings that I love power-speed combos. With playing time in hand, he broke out with 24 home runs and 23 stolen bases. But he didn’t stop there; he included a .295 average, 86 runs scored and 81 runs driven in making him a 5-category dream. Though he got significantly less patient in the 2nd half (4% walk rate against 10% in the 1st half), there really aren’t any red flags that suggest Hart was a fluke.

35. Adam Dunn – Cincinnati Reds, OF (28):
He has four straight 40-home run seasons under his belt include three in a row of exactly 40. Everyone knows his shortcomings with the batting average, but last year was a step forward at .264 and if he can avoid being the complete anchor in average that he was in ’05 and ’06 (.247 and .234, respectively) then he will be underrated. Bankable power like his makes him worth a pretty penny/top draft pick and if he can reach the levels that his expected batting averages suggest (.275+ area), his value will be just behind David Ortiz.

34. Victor Martinez – Cleveland Indians, C (29):
It seems that catcher is always thin for fantasy baseball purposes and it isn’t particularly surprising. It is the most demanding position in the game and teams will readily accept a light-hitting catcher that does everything else well. And even when catchers can hit well, they eventually move to another position to keep that bat fresh. Martinez is starting to make that transition with 30 games at 1st base last year, but for now, he is a catcher. With career highs in home runs (25) and runs batted in (114), he put up numbers fit for a corner infielder giving him enormous value at catcher. A .303 career average makes him a true three-category stud at the toughest position to fill.

33. Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles, 2B (30):
Roberts is a speed-average guy at a moderately scarce position. That is it, nothing more, nothing less. Unfortunately, he seems to want to be a 20-home run guy as well, but if that were going to be the case, it seems it would come at the expense of his batting average, as evidenced by the 2nd half of last year. Many are worried about the run scoring opportunities on the Tejada-less team, but I think he is good for at least 85 even if the O’s are as bad as advertised. However, it isn’t unrealistic to see another 100-run season given the ability of the hitters behind him (particularly the 3 M’s: Nick Markakis, Kevin Millar and Melvin Mora). His value gets a significant boost if he is traded to the Chicago Cubs.

32. Russell Martin – Los Angeles Dodgers, C (25):
I have already covered how rare it is to get much offensive production from the catcher spot of your roster, but it is rarer still to get speed with the production. Enter Russell Martin. He did 10-10 in limited duty in 2006 before stepping it up big time in 2007 with 19 and 21. Oh yeah, he also hit .293 and had 83 runs scored & runs batted in! At 25, he doesn’t have any legitimate wear and tear yet.

31. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles, OF (24):
Many saw the potential after a strong 491 at-bats in 2006, but there wasn’t anything indicating the speed that came through in 2007 (18 stolen bases). He has the skills to be a .300-30-100 guy and the speed should stick around, especially on the O’s. Markakis’ run driving in potential will suffer if Roberts is dealt to the Cubs. Don’t speculate on the runs batted in portion of things and pay for the talent. After all, the Tampa Bay Rays were awful last year and two players were able to get over 90 runs batted in.

30. Alex Rios – Toronto Blue Jays, OF (27):
First it was the staph infection in 2006 and last year it was the Home Run Derby Curse, but two straight seasons have seen Rios’ power get derailed in second half. Even still, he has put together two straight excellent seasons of 5-category fantasy production. He has overtaken teammate Vernon Wells as the Blue Jays’ golden boy. I have no problem betting that he will put together two outstanding halves this season, because even when he doesn’t, he still puts up great numbers.

29. Magglio Ordonez – Detroit Tigers, OF (34):
Remember when the Tigers first acquired Ordonez as an ailing free agent that nobody wanted? Sure, they overpaid (five years, $75 million). I’m pretty sure even they would admit it, but they weren’t in a position of strength. They had to bring in a big name to get things started. He used his first season with the Tigers (2005) to get his legs back under him before putting up back-to-back excellent seasons including last year’s that saw him earn his first batting title (.363). Back-to-back seasons of 155 and 157 games suggest Ordonez is plenty healthy and that those aiming to acquire him this year should feel confident in another full, productive season. When you consider how much Detroit improved that lineup, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Ordonez set a career-high for runs batted in for the second straight season.

28. Eric Byrnes – Arizona Diamondbacks, OF (32):
Where did the 50 stolen bases come from? Who cares? More importantly, are they here to stay? He doubled his 2006 total and at age 32, it is a longshot bet that he will maintain the upturn. That said, another 25-25 season isn’t out of reach. He plays like a 26 year old, which could get him in trouble if he hurts himself, but it means he will keep is green-light for stealing. When he hit .267 in ’06, his peripherals said he was better, but when he hit .286, the numbers said he was lucky. Pay for a mid .270s and enjoy the power-speed combo.

27. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays, 2B/OF (23):
Upton is an incredible talent that seemed to play a bit over his head in 2007. While a carbon copy repeat is unlikely, I don’t see the power and speed escaping him, I just wouldn’t bet on a .300 average. He has numbers good enough to put him in your outfield, but lucky for you, you won’t have to since he is eligible at second base. Another 20-20 season is likely, but pairing him with someone like Adam Dunn could be dangerous for batting average.

26. Lance Berkman – Houston Astros, 1B/OF (32):
Berkman is just about as steady as they come with a pretty bankable set of numbers and though the batting average was slightly off of his .300 career average at .278, it was merely due to a slow start that he corrected with a brilliant second half. Many owners probably jettisoned Berkman after a first half with just 11 home runs and a .261 average, but he rewarded the new owners as well as the patient ones with a robust 23 home runs and .293 average in the second half. Paying for another .300-30-100 season would be the smart play here.

25. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners, OF (34):
Ichiro remains the go-to guy for setting up a team’s batting average and speed at the beginning of a draft or auction. He is aging quite gracefully making another .300-30-100 season almost a guarantee. Of course, his 30-100 comes in steals and runs scored as opposed to the common implication of that idiom (30 home runs and 100 runs batted in).

24. Curtis Granderson – Detroit Tigers, OF (27):
The futility against lefties (.160) is troublesome, but you can’t deny the tremendous across-the-board production. If he has able to remedy that problem, then he could actually improve on his record breaking season of 2007. I doubt he will learn lefties overnight, but rather take a small step against them. Of course, he might not torch right-handers to the tune of .337 again, so his gain against lefties will likely offset a regression against righties. The improvements to the lineup offer Granderson the potential to lead the league in runs scored while putting up another 20-20 season.

23. Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels, OF (32):
It was another superstar season for Guerrero though he missed the 30-home run mark for the first time since 2003, despite the fact that he played a full season (unlike in ’03). His 125 runs driven in were good enough for 3rd in the American League and it isn’t out of line to foresee growth in ’08 given the improved lineup. Of course, that is largely dependent on the guys in front of him. Regardless of how they perform, Guerrero is sure to put up another season of All-Star numbers worthy of plenty of your auction dollars or one of your top picks.

22. Carlos Lee – Houston Astros, OF (31):
Like his partner in crime Lance Berkman, Lee is extraordinarily consistent with the numbers he brings to your team. Do you want .300-30-100-100-10? Buy or draft Lee. There is little to no variance across Lee’s stat lines over the past five years. In a project where the goal is to predict the future, as in fantasy baseball, a lack of statistical variance is absolutely a good thing. He also shows up daily for you, which again, is very nice since it eliminates pesky guesswork. Lee has played fewer than 150 games just once since his rookie season of 1999.

21. Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres, SP (26):
I have done 24 write-ups since I last had to flip to the pitcher sections of my stat books. And after this one, I’ll only need that section once more (for what’s-his-name?). The reigning National League Cy Young winner has a skillset you can’t help but fall in love with, but then you factor in his favorable home park and you have the recipe for success. Peavy nabbed the illustrious Pitching Triple Crown in the National League by leading wins, strikeouts and earned run average. Even more impressive, he led the majors in strikeouts, earned run average and WHIP for what is, in my view, a stronger and more impressive Pitching Triple Crown. He costs a lot to roster, but once you get him, you know your staff is set and you can immediately get back to building your lineup.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Player Focus, Predictions, Top 100 | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 01.14.2008

Fantasy Baseball Top 100: 41-60

Apologies for the delay, but a hectic weekend was capped off very poorly with my girlfriend’s car being broken into! That said, we’re more than half way home on the initial top 100 with 41-60 listed below, as always in inverse order to enhance suspense ;):

60. Aaron Hill – Toronto Blue Jays, 2B (26):
Consider me a believer of the immense 2007 growth and not just because I was a benefactor as his owner in one league. His increases in line drive and fly ball rates were keys to the power surge (17 HR in ’07 after six the year before) and it didn’t cost him any batting average as he stayed at .291. His improvement along with others has turned second base from a fantasy wasteland into a position with a bit of depth. Nothing within his statistical set suggest 2007 was a fluke and at age 26, he might even see more growth.

59. Gary Sheffield – Detroit Tigers, DH (39):
A brilliant first half was derailed by nagging injuries in the second, but it didn’t completely “slow” him down as he ended up with 13 steals after the break giving him 22 for the year. If the off-season surgery fixed up the shoulder then he could put together the season that his first half was setting up. Run scoring and run producing opportunities will be plentiful in Motown, so I see a very productive season given health. The speed will be the X-factor and key to eliminating the downside of being DH-only.

58. Hideki Matsui – New York Yankees, OF (33):
Matsui rebounded solidly from injury-riddled 2006 as he was once again a 4-category threat. More of the same should be on tap this season, especially in that lineup. Injury is the only thing that has ever derailed his ability to produce at the highest levels since coming to the United States, so a full season of health brings a near guarantee of .300-25-100-100, bid with confidence.

57. Chone Figgins – Los Angeles Angels, 3B (30):
Figgins is now down to eligibility at third base only, but still put together an excellent despite essentially taking off two months. He missed all but one game of April with an injury, but then his .156 and five steals in all of May were almost like he wasn’t there anyway. He made up for lost time with an absurd June that saw him hit .461 and nab 14 bases letting his owners he was completely healthy. In fact, from June on, he hit .376 and stole 36 bases. He is a two category guy playing a power position, but his primary asset (the speed) is very bankable on the Angels. Pay for 40+ steals and stockpile power at 1B and OF to compensate.

56. Brad Hawpe – Colorado Rockies, OF (28):
Hawpe took another large step forward in power and run production, but continued the steps backwards in hitting left-handers (hitting .214 to continue a three-year downtrend against southpaws). Coors Effect splits are there (1.017 home OPS/.831 road OPS), but hardly alarming making it hard not to love putting him in your outfield. If he figures out lefties, he might have 40-home run ability, and if not then enjoy a 2007 repeat with a few more bombs.

55. Derek Jeter – New York Yankees, SS (33):
Mr. Intangible took a dip in fantasy production a year ago, though will undoubtedly continue to go for top dollar/early pick because of his name alone. He cut his speed by more than half with just 15 stolen bases last year against the 34 from 2006 and dropped off in runs scored and runs driven in despite more at-bats. At 33, there is no reason to bet on the speed returning, but he’ll still offer the handful of steals. When looking at his past five seasons, the 97 RBIs of ’06 is the outlier, so don’t look for that again, either. He is a 15-15 guy with a great average and a ton of runs scored thanks to that lineup, so bid accordingly.

54. Miguel Tejada – Houston Astros, SS (31):
Four straight of years declining home run totals have owners fleeing, but keep in mind that there was a good bit of time missed last year and he would’ve fallen just two home runs shy of his ’06 production had he equaled the ’06 at-bat total last year. The move Houston should boost value and widespread fears could make him an excellent buy-low candidate this season. The days of 30+ home runs aren’t likely to return, but a .300-25-100 line from shortstop for the round or dollar amount he is likely to command this year is very nice.

53. Garrett Atkins – Colorado Rockies, 3B (28):
It was a tale of two halves for Atkins in 2007 as he needed a remarkable 2nd half performance to save his season. The slow start kept him from matching the 2006 output, but he performed well enough to give owners confidence for this season. His 2nd half power boost came in spite of a large dip in flyball rate. My guess would be he was just trying to get under everything in the 1st half in hopes of becoming a 30+ home run hitter, but when that didn’t work he went back to his old approach realizing he can still hit home runs with a low-40s flyball rate (his 29 home run output in ’06 was with a 41% FB rate).

52. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros, OF (25):
Pence burst onto the scene with a white-hot May and only a wrist fracture in July slowed him down. He delivered 5-category production in 2007 and I doubt 2008 will be all that different. His position in the batting order seems up in the air with the addition of Miguel Tejada. Some sources suggest he could be as low as sixth with Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee and Tejada ahead of him in no particular order. That may lower his ceiling in the runs scored and runs driven in columns, but keep in mind that Colorado’s Brad Hawpe hit 6th for 444 of his 516 at-bats last year.

51. Chipper Jones – Atlanta Braves, 3B (36):
Powered by his biggest at-bat total since 2003 (with 513), Jones was able to put together his best across-the-board season since 2001. That said, he still only played 134 games and hasn’t played more than 137 since 2003, so you are still paying for 70-to-80% of a season when acquiring Jones. In one league I was in last year, I saw things get quiet when his price hit $19, but I was more than happy to pay $20 to secure his services. It is highly unlikely he’ll go for prices like that this year, but he should. Expect .300-25-85 with anything higher being gravy.

50. C.C. Sabathia – Cleveland Indians, SP (27):
Sabathia has put together four straight seasons of improvement, including last year’s Cy Young-worthy effort, yet he will be just 27 this year! Even more amazing was that the three years before he started this run were all pretty damn solid. He hasn’t really had anything resembling a bad year during his 7-year career. The downside is that he has gone 180.1 innings or more in each of those seven seasons piling up 1406.1 innings in the process making overuse a concern. At this point, I am willing to believe he can handle the workload, but it is something to be aware of if you’re targeting him.

49. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies, OF (27):
Aaron Rowand’s departure gives Victorino job security patrolling centerfield for the Phillies this year. With a full season of work, Victorino has the ability to post 50+ stolen bases, which would have been 3rd or 4th in the National League last year. As it was, his 37 landed him 6th. He is a three category guy adding runs scored and batting average to the speed, but his owners have got to love the chip-in homers he brought to the table last year as well (12).

48. Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks, SP (29):
His natural progression of adding two wins per season since 2005 means he is ready for 20 in 2008! I am obviously kidding, but Webb has become a premier pitcher since gaining a handle on his control during that ’05 season. The excellent defense up the middle with Stephen Drew, Orlando Hudson and Chris Young plays perfectly to his style of pitching. Like Sabathia, he is piling up innings with four straight 200+ seasons in a row, but that doesn’t mean he is guaranteed to breakdown. In fact, it is merely a caveat for him and anyone else within this list. You simply cannot argue with the results that Webb has delivered for the past three seasons and it is hard to expect anything less in ’08.

47. Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox, SP (27):
After a disastrous debut season in Boston (5.10 ERA in 2006), Beckett picked up where 2005 left off en route to a Cy Young Award. Unlike the past two starters mentioned, Beckett hasn’t really piled up the innings because injuries have stunted several seasons. His career best season came on the heels of his career worst, but there is little doubt that the former is in line with his ability. Look for more of the same in 2008 and it is clear the wins will pile up regardless of performance in Boston.

46. Erik Bedard – Baltimore Orioles (for now), SP (29):
If Bedard does in fact start the season with the Orioles, then he may see his position slide, but at the time of version 1.0 of this list he is heavily rumored to Seattle. He put it all together for an incredible season last year and would’ve likely garnered plenty of attention for the Cy Young Award had an oblique strain in late August not sapped six to seven starts away from him. His best days are likely head of him as he combines great power (4th in Ks) and control (3rd in WHIP). If he finds himself on a winner, the sky is the limit.

45. Justin Morneau – Minnesota Twins, 1B (26):
You never like to jump on the guys with poor second halves like the one suffered by Morneau in ’07. Three home runs in August and September screams either injury or approach flaw and in both cases the offseason is likely the best remedy for him. He should bat 4th all year in ‘08 with Torii Hunter departed and Morneau’s production in that spot much better than Michael Cuddyer’s. His upside remains .300-40-120, but monitor spring performance where auction and draft dates allow before bidding for 2006 production.

44. Carlos Pena – Tampa Bay Rays, 1B (29):
Pena’s 2007 netted him the Comeback Player of the Year Award and while his career year was surprising, it was only because he had yet to cash in on the potential everyone saw for him as he rose through the minors. It took awhile, but he has arrived. Nothing within the statistics from ’07 forecasts a large regression except perhaps his newfound ability against lefties (.271 against .146, .245 and .208 in his previous three full seasons). Downside suggests an Adam Dunn-like season with 40 home runs and a sub .265 average, while the upside suggests a 2007 repeat or better!

43. Manny Ramirez – Boston Red Sox, OF (35):
You know you are a superstar when a .296-20-88 season is a down year for you. But was it just an off year or is he done? Given his track record, I am willing to bet it was merely an off year for Ramirez’s power and while he likely won’t put together another 40+ home run season, his 30+ days aren’t all gone. In some leagues, he will undoubtedly come at a discount. If you play in such a league, then enjoy the price cut and take a .300-30-100 season to the bank provided he is healthy enough to play 140+ games.

42. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks, OF (24):
Even if you didn’t have an Ichiro or Matt Holliday to cancel out Young’s atrocious average, he still provided outstanding value to the teams he was on in 2007 with a 32-27 rookie season. His skills predicted something closer to .270 and when combined with expected growth from this budding superstar, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to see him reach that mark in the upcoming season. He batted 1st in over half of his games and hit for a better average (.251) there than he had in the other two slots where he saw significant time (6th and 7th). So much to like across the board with Young that you almost overlook the average in ’07 and expect to have to absorb something similar in ’08 just to be on the safe side.

41. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies, SS (23):
Only an other-worldly season by Ryan Braun kept Tulowitzki from grabbing hardware for his brilliant debut campaign. While he is your typical Coors Effect hitter (.326 home/.256 road), that does not negate his value no matter how much people may try to make it. Sure, you want to be aware of the fact that he benefits greatly from his home park, but his numbers accumulated in Coors don’t count for any less than if they were done elsewhere! Instead of hitting the 2nd half wall, he surged after the break which bodes well moving forward. Hope for improvement on the home/road splits, but be content if it doesn’t happen this year and take 20+ home runs and 90+ runs batted in from your shortstop.

I should have 21-40 up no later than Wednesday evening as long as everything goes according to schedule. I have also finished my 1st book of 2008, which I will review on Monday night and post no later than Tuesday.

Posted in All BbP Originals, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Top 100 | 1 Comment »

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