You too, Eisen.
(Most of you are like, “but you’re not Jason Collette”. No, no I’m not, but I do cohost that podcast.)
Tuesday: 02.26.2013
Podcast Appearance: Minor League Report
Last week I appeared on the Minor League Report with Jay Burnham, Eric Little, Sam Siegel, and Mike Passanisi to talk some minor leaguers in fantasy baseball. Their crew is heavily involved in minor league baseball so they know what they’re talking about and if you’re someone who cares about the minors, you should be listening to their show. Click the picture below to access the iTunes feed of The MLR.
I’ll have an update regarding the release date of the SP Guide very soon. I’ve been spending just about every waking moment on the guide now for several weeks. We’re in the homestretch and it’s going to take some more sleepless nights if I’m going to hit the 3/1 target release date. By the way, the time spent on the guide these last couple of weeks is why content here has been scant, but once you see the guide I hope you understand why I had to make the tradeoff. And more importantly, I hope you end up thinking it was worth it.
Friday: 02.22.2013
MLB At Bat 13
I was going to do a post letting everyone know that At Bat’s 2013 iteration was available, but my BP colleague Maury Brown already did all the fantastic leg work so I’ll point you to his preview of the app instead:
Biz of Baseball Previews At Bat
Meanwhile, after a pair of fake fake games yesterday as the Red Sox split up to take on a pair of colleges, we get real fake games today with four Spring Training games on the docket. This is a beautiful site:
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Elsewhere on the net:
I wrote about five interesting pitchers to follow this Spring Training as they battle to be a part of the Opening Day 25.
I had Mike Gianella as a co-host, filling in for Jason Collette, and Bret Sayre as a guest on this week’s Towers of Power podcast. Gianella and Sayre are both new additions to the BP fantasy team for 2013.
Friday: 01.25.2013
Productive Outs – Ep. 34 (feat. Paul Sporer)
The brilliant minds behind Productive Outs, Riley Breckenridge and Ian Miller (REAL rockstars!! Thrice, Kowloon Walled City), were kind enough to invite me on for some spoken words and it was wondrous. If you’re not familiar with the Productive Outs Tumblr (which I linked at the beginning of this post), their Twitter feed, or their Prodcast, then your life isn’t as good as it could be just yet. These are two of my favorite people whom I’ve yet to meet in real life and I commend all of their doings to you.
Friday: 01.18.2013
New Podcast Out
BP-fest here of late (which is freeee today!), but Jason has posted the latest episode of our podcast. This week we spoke to Todd Zola of Mastersball.com centering our conversation on player valuation and some of the best ways to approach the process. It was a very good discussion. Additionally we discussed the three-way trade between Seattle-Oakland-Washington, Mike Napoli‘s contract finally getting done, and Matt Harrison‘s extension. We read some emails and discussed some favorite reads catching up after missing that segment for a few weeks. Stupidly, I forgot to include the Rafael Soriano signing. It’s probably because I was too focused on trying to make Manti Te’o girlfriend jokes so here are my thoughts on the signing:
I love it for Washington. It’s costly, sure, but they’re in win-now mode. Soriano now gives the Nats a ridiculous three-headed monster that they can use to shorten games to six innings on many nights. Soriano joins Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen to form the lockdown triumvirate (not to mention Craig Stammen kicking butt in his first full season as a reliever) with Soriano likely getting the first crack at the closer’s job if for no other reason than his salary. Not that he isn’t every bit as capable as the other two.
The last time Soriano was in the National League, he posted a 33 percent strikeout rate in a career-high 75.3 innings adding 27 saves as well. Craig Kimbrel (50 percent in 2012) and Aroldis Chapman (44 percent) think fanning just a third of the batters you face is cute, but for a mere mortal it is fantastic. Known as injury prone, health has eluded Soriano a bit over his entire career, but he has been a 60+ inning pitcher in three of the last four years and five of seven so he seems to have outrun the legitimacy of that tag in his late-20s and early-30s.
Sorry to those with Storen in keeper leagues. Clippard and Storen will be among the more expensive middle relievers in NL-only/deep mixed leagues and they will deliver plenty of value even if they only end up with a save or two all year. Meanwhile back on Soriano’s former team, David Robertson‘s value ticks upward again as the incumbent behind a now 43-year old Mariano Rivera returning from a torn ACL.
As for the articles referenced:
Thursday: 01.17.2013
Baseball Prospectus Work
My latest piece at BP went up covering three more pitchers in the Keeper Reaper series. Today’s theme was converted relievers and included Chris Sale, Lance Lynn, and Jeff Samardzija. The fantasy team has been doing the KR series across all positions this off-season. If you’re unfamiliar, it’s a series where we discuss the guys who are tough keeper choices depending on league size. You don’t need help on how keeper-worthy Justin Verlander is regardless of league size, but someone like Brandon Morrow is a tougher decision. The league sizes covered are shallow (30 keepers), ,medium (60), deep (90), AL/NL only (60), and super-deep (200). Obviously we assume it’s straight keeper without round and dollar values otherwise it’d be impossible to answer on just about anyone. All of a sudden a $42 Verlander isn’t such a no-brainer. But your league simply keeps five apiece across 12 teams, we can tell you how we feel about players.
Here’s a taste of the Sale entry:
Of course, it wasn’t all roses and rubies (new phrase, use it!); his mechanics are so wretched that they will make your arm hurt worse than Hawk Harrelson makes your ears hurt when watching a game, and he came back down to earth in July through the rest of the year. His 3.6 K/BB wasn’t too far from the first half’s 3.9 mark, and his 9.5 K/9 topped his 8.5 from the first half. His ERA, however, ballooned from 2.19 to 4.03 and his WHIP from 0.96 to 1.34. The worst part was his home run rate exploding from 0.4 to 1.4. Righties obliterated his fastball to the tune of a 1077 OPS in the second half after he kept it at 685 through the first half.
Read the entire piece here.
In my Keeper Reaper entries, I’ve covered:
-Kris Medlen, Roy Halladay,and Morrow
-Wade Miley, Matt Moore, and Jarrod Parker
-Zack Greinke, Yu Darvish, and Aroldis Chapman
-Chris Sale, Lance Lynn, and Jeff Samardzija
If you’re not subscribed to Baseball Prospectus, you can do so here.
Additionally, Jason Collette and I will be recording our podcast tonight with guest Todd Zola of Mastersball and we will be talking a lot about player valuation methodology.
Friday: 06.15.2012
BP Work This Week
A quick look at my work available over at Baseball Prospectus this week.
- I was in the Lineup Card again this week, this time outlining how the Seattle Mariners could be contenders for the 2015 World Series. Pitching will lead the way if they are going to make a run. Taijuan Walker, Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and of course Felix Hernandez should they keep him around. Think 2010 San Francisco Giants for their blueprint. Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley will be their offense anchors with Nick Franklin and 2012 1st rounder Mike Zunino on the way.
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- Next up was the Starting Pitcher Value Picks column that looks at some of the more widely available starters who should be getting more love. I discussed A.J. Burnett yet again because I just don’t understand why he is still being overlooked and I also took a look at the recently called up Kris Medlen who was being stretched out in the minors for the Braves.
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- The Weekly Planner will go live soon and it looks at the two-start pitchers worth trotting out in your leagues. There aren’t a ton of great choices this week who will likely be available on waiver wires, so those with the aces with a pair of starts will have an even bigger leg up over those who merely stream guys.
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- I did my first BP Unfiltered post this week comparing the 14 K perfect games of Sandy Koufax and Matt Cain.
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- And finally, episode 8 is out for The Towers of Power Fantasy Hour, a BP Fantasy Podcast. We discussed tons of players ranging from Matt Cain, Troy Tulowitzki and Dustin Pedroia to Tony Campana, Gregor Blanco and Nate Eovaldi. We also anoint Felix Doubront with a fantastic new nickname. The Tigers won yesterday afternoon before the pdocast, so no rant on my beloved team. By the way, I mentioned on the pod that I would be coming out with a Bryce Harper/Mike Trout-centric piece today, but I had to push it to Monday. It is coming, though.
Friday: 06.8.2012
BP Work This Week
A quick look at my work available over at Baseball Prospectus this week.
- First up was the Starting Pitcher Value Picks piece in which I looked at Phil Hughes, who I may have pumped up after watching him dismantle my favorite team in a complete game of excellence. I profess my love of Edwin Jackson yet again. Weird. Completely unexpected.
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- Next up was the Weekly Planner piece which takes a look at the all the two-start pitchers for next week and decides who you should go with and who you should probably avoid. Aces are very light this week meaning you will have to look at some lesser options if you want to load up on two start starters in H2H leagues. Edwin Jackson (yes, two mentions!!!) and Bud Norris are among my favorites in that group.
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- I also appeared in the Lineup Card for the first time since joining Baseball Prospectus. The week’s topic was “Favorite Baseball Books” and I discussed one of my favorite books ever: The Numbers Game by Alan Schwarz. Just a fantastic journey through the history of baseball stats engineered by one of the best writers out there. He did some fascinating work on concussions in the NFL and continues to dominate life for the NY Times.
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- And finally, episode 7 will come out for the The Towers of Power Fantasy Hour, a BP Fantasy Podcast on Saturday. We discussed a ton of players of varying import ranging from stars to lower tier “only” league options. In lieu of specific segments like most weeks, the meat of the show were these in depth breakdowns on players. Send your emails to fantasyhour@baseballprospectus.com. We record on Thursdays usually, but moved to Friday this week. We also have a Facebook Group that you should definitely join. Here is my entrant for “Best Thing I Read This Week”. I didn’t explain it particularly well on the podcast, but it cracked me the f up.
Sunday: 05.27.2012
BP Work This Week
A quick look at my work available over at Baseball Prospectus this week.
- First up was the Starting Pitcher Value Picks piece in which I looked at A.J. Burnett, whose meltdown against the St. Louis Cardinals has scared everyone off of him despite the fact that he has been excellent in every other start. Since the May 2nd disaster, Burnett is 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 22 K in 27 innings. He has chiseled his ERA (at 8.04 after the implosion start) down to 4.19, too. I also took a look at J.A. Happ and his surging strikeout rate.
- Next up was the Weekly Planner piece which takes a look at the all the two-start pitchers for next week and decides who you should go with and who you should probably avoid. Aces are light this week meaning you will have to look at some lesser options if you want to load up on two start starters in H2H leagues. James McDonald and Trevor Cahill are among my favorites in that group. I also added a feature that ranks all the pitchers across both leagues.
- I also appeared in the Lineup Card for the first time since joining Baseball Prospectus. The week’s topic was “Mr. Almosts” and I discussed how Mickey Mantle and Barry Bonds both hit .298 for their career.
- And finally, episode 5 came out for the The Towers of Power Fantasy Hour, a BP Fantasy Podcast. We discussed a ton of players of varying import ranging from stars to lower tier “only” league options. In lieu of specific segments like most weeks, the meat of the show were these in depth breakdowns on players. We also read plenty of your emails. Send your emails to fantasyhour@baseballprospectus.com. We record on Thursdays. We also have a Facebook Group that you should definitely join.
Friday: 05.11.2012
BP Work This Week
A quick look at my work available over at Baseball Prospectus this week.
- First up was the Starting Pitcher Value Picks piece in which I looked at Felipe Paulino, who threw alright on Friday night against the White Sox. I still like him as at least a stream option in all formats if not a full-time player. I was surprised to learn that Jeff Samardzija was so available across the three primary outlets. He is only out there in 18% of CBS leagues, but even that was surprising while his availability in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues ranged from 53-60%.
- Next up was the Weekly Planner piece which takes a look at the all the two-start pitchers for next week and decides who you should go with and who you should probably avoid. There are several aces going and falling in the Auto-Start category, but there are also a ton of Start options as well. That should allow you find an adequate arm to fill in for Johnny Cueto who I have as merely a Consider this week with trips into Atlanta and the Bronx on his docket. I’ve long been a fan of Cueto, but I’m also realistic and he is likely going to start his path to regression this upcoming week.
- And finally, episode 3 came out for the The Towers of Power Fantasy Hour, a BP Fantasy Podcast. We discussed stars playing like stars and how to handle them, cover a bunch of unexpectedly hot pitchers and whether or not we believe in them as well as read plenty of your emails. Send your emails to fantasyhour@baseballprospectus.com. We record on Thursdays. We also have a Facebook Group that you should definitely join.
Baseball By Paul 