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Wednesday: 03.14.2012

The 2012 Starting Pitcher Guide

It’s finally here!

-400 Pitchers

-76,300 Words

-190 Words Per Pitcher (on average)

-151 Pages

Please enjoy the 2012 Guide and feel free to direct any questions and comments either here in the comments section, on Twitter @sporer or via email through sporer at g mail.  As was the case last year, you can donate to show your appreciation in the upper right corner of this page.  I sincerely appreciate any and all donations and I’m beyond flattered at the fact that I’ve already received a handful of donations AHEAD of the release.

2012 SP Guide with 400 Player Capsules

Posted in 2012 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 9 Comments »

Friday: 02.3.2012

2011 Starting Pitching Guide Review (and 2012 Announcement)

Well, that dopey groundhog saw his shadow and saddled us with six more weeks of winter allegedly (it was 76 degrees today in Austin), but that’s neither here nor there because the calendar turning to February means baseball is once again on the horizon.  Spring Training will start mid-month and from there we will soon have meaningless Spring Training game stats to ascribe far too much meaning to as we prepare for our fantasy drafts and auctions.

My annual Starting Pitcher Guide is also on the horizon.  Last year’s edition was a resounding success and while it may be difficult to top, I plan to do so in 2012.  While the number of pitchers covered is unlikely to grow for the first year since I started back in 2008, the analysis of those included in the guide will be expanded.  Make no mistake, it will still be a robust offering covering names all the way down to the short season minor leagues, but there just won’t be as many of those project types included in 2012.

What you can expect is another guide that will have utility regardless of your league type.  Whether you play in an 8-team mixed league or 20-team dynasty league with 50-man rosters, you will be well equipped to tackle the 2012 pitching pool with aplomb.

Last year’s guide…

…nailed the rebound of James Shields, “He is likely to be dirt cheap and I can’t recommend buying in enough. The downside if his luck just bounces back to average is 2009 while the upside is 2008 or better.”

…outlined the immense upside of Clayton Kershaw (though admittedly it takes all of one time seeing him pitch to understand his greatness), “He has more brilliance in his future including a 20-win season and/or a Cy Young award.  Buy.”

…pegged the sleeper status of Ian Kennedy, “He deserved better than his 9-10 record even with the gopheritis, but that may depress his value again in 2011 making him a sleeper albeit a much different kind of sleeper than prior to the 2010 season” and also offered a solid expectation for teammate Daniel Hudson’s first full season, “I would use Kennedy’s 2010 line (194 IP-3.80 ERA-1.20 WHIP-168 K) as a guide for Hudson’s 2011 (222 IP-3.49 ERA-1.20 WHIP-169 K) and bid accordingly”.

…encouraged aggressively buying into a 2011 rebound for Josh Beckett, “With his BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rate all working against him, he is ripe for a significant bounce-back in 2011, which may also come at a measurable discount. This is a buy profile regardless of the size discount, because he certainly won’t cost what he did heading into last year.”

…really liked the prospects of Washington’s Jordan Zimmermann even with a reduced workload on the heels of Tommy John Surgery, “[Innings] Limit or not, I love Zimmerman’s skills and will do what I can to acquire his services for my teams.  He has strikeout-per-inning stuff with above average control.  In his 91-inning debut, he pitched like a mid-3.00s starter, but bad luck cost him more than a run rendering him a 4.63 ERA. Buy now on this budding star, especially in keeper leagues.”

…loved Ricky Romero for 2011, “He’s a bit under the radar for some reason. In ESPN’s top 75 starting pitcher list, he’s behind Jeremy Hellickson, Trevor Cahill and Jhoulys Chacin among others. All three of those guys have their merits, but I wouldn’t take any of them ahead of Romero.  He could take another step forward in 2011, but even a 2010 repeat is very valuable.”

…stayed the course with Derek Holland for a second year & reaped the benefits of his 16-5, 3.95 ERA season, “One of my favorites for a little while now, Holland flashed real skill in his 57 innings, but an injured shoulder cost him 55 games in the middle of the summer. He has a good chance of locking up spot in the rotation heading into 2011 and I’m looking for the full breakout.”

…liked Bud Norris for a solid year, especially at his price (next to nothing, even in NL-Only leagues), “If I’m going to buy into an imperfect profile, there has to be a legitimate upside and Norris has it. With his strikeout-per-inning stuff, Norris isn’t far from being an impact arm at the major league level.  The biggest hurdle remaining is his control. If he can get his walk rate under four per game (4.5 BB/9 in ’10; 4.4 career), he could have a big season.”

…suggested keeping Cory Luebke on your watch list for the first opening in San Diego, “If he doesn’t win a job in Spring Training, he will be on call if any of the non-Latos entities falters as they all come with their own special brand of risk. Keep an eye on him. He still qualifies for minor league drafts and he’s almost certain to contribute at some point in 2011.”  Luebke pitched well out of the pen (39 IP, 43 K, 3.23 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) through mid-June before finally getting a start on June 26th and holding a rotation spot the rest of the way (101 IP, 111 K, 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP).

…pointed out that Scott Baker’s skills were much better than his >4.00 ERAs in three of the last four years heading into 2011, “Still, the skills beyond the flyballs are so appealing that it’s hard to stay away. Be prepared to walk if the price climbs too much, but there is value and upside lingering in this profile.”

…preached caution with youngster Kyle Drabek, “Even if he wins the job, I would suggest tempering expectations of a youngster who has skipped AAA. Keeper leaguers invest; re-draft leaguers invest only at the right price.”  Even that tepid endorsement probably wasn’t enough as he was absolutely brutal in any format.

…warned that Clay Buchholz wasn’t a 2.33 ERA pitcher with his skill set, “He continued to be successful because a strong 51% groundball rate was supplemented by very favorable BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rates that turned a 3.50-4.00 season into a 2.33 one. I love profiles with elite groundball rates and above average or better strikeout rates, but you will pay a premium for Buchholz’s 2010 in most leagues making it tough to invest for profit. I would pass unless his value is commensurate with his true skill.”  He had almost equal strikeout and walk rates, yielding a 3.48 ERA in 83 innings before injuries cut his season short.

…had Jonathan Sanchez’s 2009 season as the barometer for his 2011 forecast, “Use that [2009] season (4.24 ERA, 1.37 WHP, 9.8 K/9) as your guide and bid accordingly.  His price may escalate because of 2010 so don’t be afraid to bow out; let others pay the unnecessary premium.”  Sanchez toted a 4.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 in 101 innings.

…didn’t buy Mike Pelfrey’s 2010 artificial breakout at all, “He’s not a legitimate mid-3.00s [ERA pitcher] with his current skills profile. I don’t think he’s going to all of a sudden develop an above average strikeout rate after 683 major league innings at 5.1, so his key to pushing the strikeout-to-walk rate above 2.0 (for the first time ever) is his walk rate. If the record (15-9) and ERA (3.66) inflate his value, step away.”

…virtually nailed Mat Latos’s 2011 performance, “Look for a 3.25-3.50 ERA, a 1.20 WHIP or better and 8-9 Ks per game for the budding star.”  Latos pitched to a 3.47 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 8.6 K/9 in 194 innings.

…wasn’t deterred by Hiroki Kuroda’s age, instead focusing on his consistent year-to-year performance since coming over to the States, “Though 36, he shows no signs of slowing down (including significant 2nd-half improvement in 2010) yet the elevated age generally brings an unnecessary but welcomed discount.”

…saw improved control mitigating the impact of a worse infield defense for Jaime Garcia, “A 180 inning season with a 3.50ish ERA, 1.30ish WHIP and 140 strikeouts is very good. The worsening defense with the departure of Brendan Ryan will hurt a groundballer like Garcia, but improved control after getting 163 innings under his belt isn’t out of the question either, which would help offset Ryan.”  Garcia threw 195 innings with a 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 156 K (7.2 K/9).

…was actually a little on high side when it came to Javier Vazquez’s rebound even though his season started off about as poorly as possible, “I’m less concerned [about his velocity dip in the Bronx] as a one year drop doesn’t automatically make it a certainty and though he is 35, I think he will rebound nicely out of the limelight with the Marlins. We almost certainly won’t see 2009, but 200 innings of 3.80 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and a heap of strikeouts has plenty of value.”  On June 11th, 13 starts into his season, Vazquez had a 7.09 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 66 innings, but pitched to a 1.92 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in his final 127 innings to end the season with a 3.69 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 193 innings (as well as a solid 7.6 K/9).

Of course those 18 success stories were but a sample of the insightful analysis found in the 2011 guide and in the interest of full disclosure, there were some duds which is to be expected when putting out 546 player profiles.  I was way too high on Kevin Slowey, who managed just 59 innings of work and while his 6.8 K/BB ratio was a career best, his 1.5 HR/9 led to a 6.67 ERA and 0-8 record.

I also thought buying in on John Lackey was wise.

I saw an implosion for Mark Buehrle, who enjoyed his best ERA since 2005.

I thought Derek Lowe was a low-risk investment (5.05 ERA, 1.51 WHIP).

I vastly underestimated his teammate, Tim Hudson, who showed plenty left in the tank at 35 improving his K and BB rates.

I fell for Ricky Nolasco… again.

I jumped off the Matt Garza Bandwagon before reaping the dividends after loving him in 2010.

I stayed the course with Jason Hammel whose skills were much better than his ERA for two straight years until last year when he decided to regress his skills toward his ERA instead of vice versa.

I thought AJ Burnett could rebound from his dreadful 2010 thanks to a solid track record & big time strikeout ability… whoops (Burnett lowered his ERA just 0.11 to 5.15).

I dismissed the signing of Bartolo Colon by the Yankees, lumping him in with Mark Prior, “even the best Spring Training in the world couldn’t convince to lay a dollar on either, but they are in Tampa and could feasibly pull off a miracle… I guess.”

I overrated Brett Cecil suggesting “he definitely merits heavy consideration in most league formats” as he went on to post a 4.73 ERA in 124 innings thanks in large part to a 1.6 HR/9.

I gave Justin Masterson merely a tepid endorsement which may have caused some to miss out on the 26-year old’s breakout season, “There is still to work to be done, especially against lefties. Invest on the cheap in AL-Only leagues and deeper mixed leagues, but maybe reserve (if applicable) or just monitor him in standard 10-12 team mixers.”  I should’ve stayed the course with him after recommending him in the 2010 guide.

I was duped by Bruce Chen again, who lowered his undeserved 2010 ERA by 0.40 despite a strikeout rate below 6.0, “If you are falling for the 4.17 ERA last year and actually consider rostering Chen in any league format, I’d rather you just send me your money since burning it is illegal.”

I thought Joel Pineiro could continue to offer value as a low strikeout, control artist after back-to-back sub-4.00 ERA seasons in 2009 and 2010.  I was so very wrong.  His already miniscule strikeout rate plummeted to 3.8 K/9 and his ERA rose significantly to a completely unusable 5.19 in 146 innings.

In any sort of undertaking like the 2011 Starting Pitching Guide, there are going to be hits and misses, but overall I am happy with how everything turned out both when I published it last winter and now as I look back on how the prognostications panned out.  You can expect more quality analysis in the 2012 guide as well as feature pieces diving into a bevy of starting pitcher-related topics yet to be determined.

Apart from knowing there will be profiles and some articles, details are scant on the 2012 guide because I have several decisions to make in terms of both content and distribution.  I am flattered with how many inquiries I’ve received on Twitter and via email asking if there will be a guide this year so I wanted to make it known that there will be one which also explains why coverage has been scant at paulsporer.com through January.

I’ll post updates throughout the month especially as I get a strong handle on a release date.

Posted in 2011 Fantasy Guide, 2012 Fantasy Guide, Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 14 Comments »

Thursday: 12.15.2011

Trevor Cahill’s 2012 Outlook in Arizona

For a few days it seemed certain that Oakland A’s lefty starting pitcher Gio Gonzalez would be dealt in a blockbuster deal this winter.  The rumors were running rampant and frequent and had names attached to them like Jesus Montero and Dellin Betances from the Yankees, Mike Stanton or Logan Morrison as a centerpiece from the Marlins and Jacob Turner and Nick Castellanos from the Tigers.

Unfortunately for Oakland, none of those came to pass (the packages from New York and Detroit or even just Stanton from Florida would’ve been an excellent return for Gonzalez), but then out of nowhere it was their other budding star pitcher, Trevor Cahill who was dealt.  He was sent to the Arizona Diamondbacks with Craig Breslow for prospects Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook on December 10th.

The deal gives the reigning NL West champs a front three of Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and Cahill without sacrificing any of the pieces they used to win 94 games and push Milwaukee to the brink in the first round of the playoffs back in October.  What will the move from the American League’s version of the west to the National League’s mean for Cahill?

He enters his age 24 season having pitched three full campaigns (at least 30 starts in each) that have yielded a mixed bag of results.  He was an All-Star and down ballot Cy Young candidate in 2010, but has sandwiched that breakout with two seasons of essentially league average work (96 and 97 ERA+ totals in 2009 and 2011).  Pitchers are generally expected to see an improvement when shifting to the National League just by virtue of the fact that they get to face their mound counterparts, but might Cahill have some natural growth within his talent profile, too?

His Pedigree

Cahill came up through the minors as a highly touted prospect for Oakland after being taken in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft.  He squeezed in nine professional innings after signing as an 18-year old and then proceeded to show why he was such a high pick in 2007 and 2008.  He made three stops in the two years (A, High-A and AA) throwing 230 innings with a 2.66 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB.

His major league debut saw less than half of that strikeout rate show up as he fanned just 4.5 batters per game in 179 innings.  That said, the strikeout rate has crept up yearly since he reached the majors and last year’s 6.4 K/9 in his high watermark for now.  Perhaps given where he established that minor league strikeout rate, his progression in the majors should be less surprising.  More on that later.

His primary asset has been the ability to induce groundballs at an elite rate (56% the last two years) which the usually sure-handed defense of the A’s* translates into plenty of outs.  Combine that with a scant flyball rate in a spacious park and you can see why Cahill has enjoyed league average or better success in each of his first three seasons despite not yet topping 2.0 in his strikeout-to-walk ratio.

*The A’s defense had far and away its worst year since Cahill joined the team and not surprisingly his numbers suffered in concert.  His BABIP during the 2010 season was at .236 yielding a 2.97 ERA against a 4.19 FIP while his BABIP soared to .302 in 2011 pushing his ERA to 4.16 against a 4.10 FIP.  In other words, he was essentially the same guy each of the last two years, but he counts an exemplary defense for improved results.  Later we will see how Arizona’s defense might suit him in 2012.

The National League

When discussing strategy with mixed league fantasy baseball managers, you will often hear someone say they lean heavily toward starting pitchers in the National League as a general principle, especially if their other choice is a pitcher in the American League East.  Even if the NL pitcher is slightly less talented, a lot of times the deciding factor will be the league in which he pitches.  Is it worth it?  In general does leaning toward NL starting pitchers pay off?

Looking at the last three years, the answer is yes, but only marginally so.  Not enough to where I would knowingly take a less talented pitcher just because he is in the assumed safe haven of the National League.

As you can see, the difference in starting pitcher strikeout rates from league to league is about 0.2-0.3 in favor of the National League while walk rates are dead even.  The difference over 200 innings is a whopping three strikeouts (147 to 150).  So there isn’t a major difference in strikeout rate from one league to the other even with pitchers batting and striking out 33% of the time.  We saw this come to fruition in 2011 as the big pitchers who switched leagues saw inconsistent changes in their strikeout rates.

*Ubaldo Jimenez and Edwin Jackson both switched during the 2011 season resulting in smaller innings samples for each column while the others are all comparing their 2010 and 2011 full seasons.

Both Jackson and Shaun Marcum actually lost something on their strikeout rate when joining the National League while Marcum’s teammate Zack Greinke and their central division foe Matt Garza saw significant gains in their first season’s as National Leaguers.  Jimenez held firm moving from Colorado to Cleveland midseason.  It is a limited sample of pitchers for sure, but the point is simply that the National League doesn’t automatically yield a better strikeout rate.

What about the actual results?  Do we see a discernible difference in starting pitcher ERAs from league to league?

Overall, the league ERA in the National League has been 0.20 to 0.31 better during the last three years including 0.28 better in 2011.  So again there is a slight enhancement for National League-based  starting pitchers over their equal American League counterparts, but keep in mind that over 200 innings, it is a seven earned run difference and just five earned runs in a 150-inning sample.

There is still no compelling case to be made for taking a lesser talented NL pitcher over even a slightly more talent AL one.  If you use league home as a tiebreaker between two comparable players, then it makes sense to lean toward the National League as you should expect incremental gains in strikeout rate and ERA results.

Using Cahill’s 2011 results, he would stand to gain five strikeouts up to 152 and his ERA would shave seven runs off and move down to 3.86.  Those are simple quick and dirty estimates using his 2011 results against 2011 league standards.  This removes all of his context-based factors and assumes no growth.

His Home Park

Cahill leaves a park in Oakland well known for favoring pitchers and heads to Arizona to play in a park equally well known for its opposite effect on pitchers.  Neither is the best at what it is known for, but Cahill will now play in the division with the most renowned stadiums for each end of the spectrum: San Diego’s PetCo Park for pitchers and Colorado’s Coors Field for hitters.

Here is comprehensive look at the park factors for the divisions Cahill is leaving and joining using Baseball-Reference’s Park Factors for just 2011 as well as the last three years combined:

(-b refers to park factor for batters; -p for pitchers)

Overall the change is minimal with the biggest difference being his less favorable home park, but his severe groundball tendency combined with the boost from the National League should mitigate most of it, especially since that doesn’t even take into account his potential to improve as a pitcher.  Meanwhile, he essentially trades Texas for Colorado.  Of course, Texas never really bothered him as he posted a 2.23 ERA and 2.1 K/BB rate in 40 innings (his highest count outside of Oakland) there.

The outfield dimensions of Chase Field as compared Oakland Coliseum are unlikely to impact Cahill negatively.  In fact, Chase Field is deeper in almost every respect.  Where Oakland Coliseum derives a great deal of its love from pitchers is in the foul territory.  The expansive room available to make plays on balls that would otherwise be souvenirs in most other stadiums has saved many an Oakland pitcher.  It is hard to derive how much of an impact, if any, that will have on Cahill in 2012.  While I can find how many of his pitches turn into foul balls, I can’t find how many of those foul balls result in outs.

His Defense

As I mentioned earlier, Cahill relies heavily on his defense.  With a 56% groundball rate, a sharp infield offense is key to his success.  In 2010, the top four fielders in UZR on the A’s were Cahill’s infielders: Kevin Kouzmanoff 16.1 at 3B, Daric Barton 12.1 at 1B, Mark Ellis and Cliff Pennington at 9.9 apiece at 2B and SS, respectively.  Of the four, only Ellis played fewer than 1231 innings (986) and the most important cog, Pennington, played 1304.

On the 2011 A’s, Ellis and Kouzmanoff were the top two rated infielders in UZR with 2.1 and 2.0 marks in 501 and 365 innings, respectively.  Ellis was traded to Colorado to make way for youngster Jemile Weeks while Kouzmanoff was only in the lineup throughout 2010 because of his glove (.296 wOBA) and yet somehow got worse with the bat in 2011 (.271 wOBA) before eventually being traded to Colorado as well, though in a separate deal from Ellis.  Meanwhile Pennington regressed to previous defensive levels with a -5.2 UZR in 1272 innings, which is more in line with his -4.7 and -4.5 marks from 2008 and 2009.

The aforementioned Weeks had a -4.1 UZR as the primary second baseman and Scott Sizemore was a team worst -6.0 UZR at third base.  Both added a Bondsian level of offense compared to their predecessors, though, so the offensively-starved A’s had to overlook their defensive shortcomings.  This no doubt affected Cahill en route to a career-worst .302 BABIP.  While that isn’t too far off of the average (.299 in the AL), Cahill needs to be above average there until his base skills (missing bats and limiting free passes) improve.

The Diamondbacks were first in baseball in UZR at 55.8 in 2011.  Good news for Cahill, right?  Yes, but not as good as that one piece of information suggests.  The bulk of Arizona’s UZR goodness is built off of their strong outfield defense: Chris Young 14.1 in CF, Gerardo Parra 9.8 in LF and Justin Upton 7.7 in RF.

But right behind those three is shortstop Stephen Drew at 4.5.  His season was cut short by injury, but backup shortstop John McDonald turned in a 4.0 UZR, too.  Drew has been above average each of the last three years including an 8.7 UZR in 2010.  Keeping him healthy will be essential because he not only picks it, but he is a far better with the bat than McDonald.

Aaron Hill has a very strong defensive track record with a 21.7 UZR in six seasons of work and just one season below average (-4.9 in 2009).  Ryan Roberts broke out in his first full season of play both at the dish and in the field.  He spent the bulk of his time (902 of 1132 innings) at third base and acquitted himself well enough with a 1.7 UZR.

Defensive numbers can fluctuate year-to-year so while the Diamondbacks might not finish first in the league again in 2012, it is nice to know that all of Cahill’s new infielders have track records to back up their 2011 performance.  This is a net gain for Cahill, especially with the A’s placing a premium on bat production in lieu of quality fielding (and who can blame them?).  Lucky for Cahill and Arizona, their slick fielders can handle the bat, too.

His Bullpen & Offense

These two factors only really contribute to his potential win count, the predicting of which is generally foolish because of how inconsistently they correlate to quality pitching.  More to the point, wins aren’t really something that starting pitchers can control because even if they pitch well for their allotment of innings, they need the bullpen to hang on.  And even if the bullpen keeps their masterpiece intact, the offense needs to have earned enough runs off of the opposition’s starter and bullpen, too.

For the sake of full disclosure, let’s quickly look at both aspects.  The bullpens were equal for intents and purposes in 2011 and both have the talent to do the same again in 2012.  Any major differences between the two would come from fluctuating luck or a change in personnel.  As it stands right now, Cahill will see no discernible gain or loss in bullpen support with the trade.  Projecting forward he was more likely to lose out by staying in Oakland as they continue to discuss potential trades involving Andrew Bailey.

There seems to be a real improvement in his team offense with the move to Arizona as evidenced by the 2011 numbers of the two units:

Of course, that still doesn’t mean he will have an increase in wins.  Consider his 2010 season.  He went 18-8 and while the Oakland offense was better than the dreadful 2011 iteration, they still only scored 4.1 runs per game.  Logic and wins don’t mingle well.  Yes, you can probably afford to pitch a bit worse and register an above average win total with an offensive stalwart like the Yankees supporting you, but then you see Aaron Harang win 14 games with the Padres who scored a whopping 3.7 runs per game in 2011.

Cahill’s bullpen support remains strong and his offensive support is improved, but don’t let either have a significant impact in your 2012 analysis for him.

His Improvement

We have taken a look at all of the outside factors that could contribute to Cahill’s success or failure in 2012, so what about the factors he can handle?  He showed during his minor league career that he can be a dominant strikeout pitcher, but you have to consider that the bulk of that work was done in the lower minors.

He skipped AAA before making his debut (subsequently logged 9 AAA IP in 2010) and posted a career-low 8.0 K/9 in a quick 37-inning stint in AA at the end of 2008.  So while the gaudy 9.9 K/9 in 247 minor league innings is nice, you have to adjust more than you would normally take off for a pitcher who had a strikeout rate like that with some significant work in AA and AAA.  Going from 9.9 to the 4.5 of his rookie year would have been hard to project, but he deserves credit for not crumbling under the pressure as a 21-year old who essentially came from High-A.

His improved strikeout rate seems to correlate well with the effectiveness of his curveball.  I took a look at him early this season after just two starts because I noticed that his curve was generating a lot of swinging strikes.  In fact, he continued to use his curveball effectively throughout the season.  He used it 4% more than in 2010 (24%) and it generated a swing 5% more often (52%) resulting in strikes 5% more often (67%), 1% of which were swing-through strikes or whiffs (14%).  His 2011 data; 2010 data.

This piece by David Golebiewski at Baseball Analysts looks at Cahill’s year on the whole and examines both his curveball and slider together leading to a similar conclusion that they are the key to an elevated strikeout rate for him. More to point, keeping them down so that hitters swing over the top of them will allow Cahill to generate more strikeouts as he continues to mature.  Plus, the worst case scenario on a well-placed breaking pitch low in the zone is weak contact in the infield which shouldn’t be too problematic for the Diamondbacks fielders to handle.

He has posted a 3.6 BB/9 in two of his first three seasons which is in line with his 3.7 BB/9 mark as a minor leaguer, but the 2.9 BB/9 shows that there is room for improvement.  He is unlikely to become Cliff Lee with his control whether now or in the future, but even incremental improvement toward that 2010 mark would be help his gaudy 1.43 WHIP.

His 2012

I really like Cahill’s outlook for 2012.  I would have liked it in Oakland, too, but the move to Arizona only helps matters.  Despite the bouncing ERA from 2.97 to 4.16, he was virtually the same exact pitcher in 2010 and 2011.  In fact, his secondary numbers say just that:

It is hard not to be impressed with what he has accomplished as a 21 to 23 year old in his 583 career innings.  He only has the one standout season from a fantasy aspect, but there is a burgeoning skill set worth buying into just as the Diamondbacks did with the trade.

I see him with a ceiling of around seven and a half strikeouts per game, though we may only see another incremental gain in 2012.  We have probably already seen his best walk rate at 2.9 in 2010, but he can get there again and it could be as soon as 2012.    Add in the improved defense closer to what he enjoyed in 2010 and I think we see something like in the following ranges for Cahill in 2012:

ERA: 3.60 – 3.92 (a spread of 7 ER in 200 IP)

WHIP: 1.24 – 1.30 (a spread of 13 base runners in 200 IP)

K/9: 6.7 – 7.5 (149-167 Ks in 200 IP)

BB/9: 2.9 – 3.4 (65-76 BBs in 200 IP)

W: these projections are enough to net 15+, but always remember that wins are unpredictable

I chose to do ranges because the accuracy of firm numbers is so low and the difference in actual performance between those ranges is pretty reasonable across a 26-week season as you can see from the information in parentheses next to each category.  Cahill is currently the 44th starting pitcher off the board in early mock drafts at MockDraftCentral.com which puts him in the 13th round at 164 overall.

Right now I don’t hate him at that 164th spot, but I think that is full price and I would opt to wait for some of the names behind him Doug Fister (180), Jaime Garcia (193), Derek Holland (197), Matt Moore (203), Javier Vazquez-assuming he doesn’t retire (246) and Ricky Nolasco (258) to name a few.  I see some, if not all, of those names eventually passing Cahill in ADP along with Yu Darvish (206) depending where he ends up.

In a mock draft (14-team mixed league) I’m currently involved in, I got him in the 21st round with pick 286 which I thought was a steal.  I suspect as more players get signed and we get closer to draft season his ADP will dip lower than 164 making him something of a bargain.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Off-Season, Player Focus, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 2 Comments »

Tuesday: 09.20.2011

Trolling the Wire: The Finish Line

(Ed. note: – That’s embarrassing… this was supposed to go up at 11:30 AM yet it was scheduled for 11:30 PM by accident… sorry for those of you who needed guys today.  However I’ve used Holland and E-Jax so often that you probably could’ve guessed they would be the picks. )

Just about a week left (season ends Wednesday, September 28th) and while there might not be a lot of undecided races in Major League Baseball, there are still plenty of undecided winners in fantasy leagues everywhere.  Just within my own leagues there is one where five teams are split by just 6.0 points and another where three teams split by 6.5 points.  And of course any head-to-head league comes right down to the wire.

Last week’s spot starter picks did quite well if I may shed any modesty for a moment as they posted a 2.01 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 67 innings.  Just one of the 10 pitchers gave up more than three runs (Wade Davis, 4) and six gave up one or none so in a week when getting the best out your last remaining starts is especially crucial, these guys came through.

The Hail Mary picks

In theory every game counts the same, but in April or even August you have time overcome nightmarish starts, but with nine days left in the season it’s do or die.  One implosion can end your chances depending on the league standings.

With precious little time left, I’m focusing only on prime picks.  If you’re in Hail Mary mode just about anyone with a pulse will qualify so I don’t think I need to highlight those guys.  I’m going for the best and best (or best of the rest as it were since these are guys on many waiver wires).

TUESDAY:

Derek Holland (TEX @ OAK) – Holland has been mostly good to us and a start in Oakland is pretty close to a no-brainer with someone of his talent.

Edwin Jackson (STL v. NYM) – He’s been a stalwart for those who stream pitchers because no matter how well he pitched, he couldn’t seem to get any real respect this year.

WEDNESDAY:

No one of note – Javier Vazquez finally had his ownership rate move up significantly and it is now 73% so he is no longer available to us spot start players.  Some marginal guys I considered that would be upper tier Hail Marys include Brad Peacock, Brandon McCarthy and Wade Miley. 

THURSDAY:

Still no one – Philip Humber and Jeff Niemann are among the few longshot options, but Humber has been very inconsistent since the All-Star break and Niemann has the Yankees. 

FRIDAY:

Josh Collmenter (ARI v. SF) – A favorable matchup against a weak lineup (in a huge game for both teams, of course) and he has walked just three in his last five starts (all in one start against San Diego).

Matt Harrison (TEX v. SEA) – An even better matchup than Collmenter and while his control isn’t as sharp, his propensity for strikeouts is a bit higher.

SATURDAY:

Aaron Harang (SD v. LAD) – I have covered Harang at home on more than one occasion, he’s money at home.

Joe Saunders (ARI v. SF) – I know what you’re thinking, you thought I wasn’t going with risky plays here down the stretch, but Saunders has been money for a nice stretch and I like him against a weak lineup even if the game means a ton for both teams.

SUNDAY:

Mike Minor (ATL @ WAS), Edwin Jackson (STL v. CHC), Bud Norris (HOU v. COL), Derek Holland (TEX v. SEA) – All four have been staples on the Trolling so I don’t feel I really need to sell you on them with commentary.  If you have been streaming for any period of time, chances are you have used one or more of these guys on multiples occasions.

Monday-Wednesday later this week when the spots become official.

Posted in Analysis, Player Focus, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Monday: 09.12.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 24 Tuesday-Friday

I didn’t love anyone for tonight’s games so this week’s Trolling will focus on Tuesday through Friday.  As with Sunday’s picks, I will mention some Hail Mary picks throughout that you can consider if you’re desperately trying to make a move.  I’m not counting these in my actual tally because while they are calculated picks that have enough upside to deliver, they are only being mentioned for the most dire of situations.

I will show you the weekly results with and without them just for fun, but note that the official numbers at year’s end will not include the longshot picks from Sunday and the rest of the season.

 

TUESDAY

Standard:

Mike Minor (ATL v. FLO) – He has gotten some dirty wins and his 3.58 ERA the last month (28 IP) isn’t off-the-charts great, but I love the strikeout potential with 30 in those 28 IP & 8.2 K/9 for the year.

Mike Leake (CIN v. CHC) – He just threw a complete game giving up two runs on three hits against these Cubs and he has a 2.74 ERA and 3.5 K/BB in 23 innings (3 starts) against them this year.

Cory Luebke (SD @ SF) – Up and down lately as the rookie seems to be hitting a bit of a wall (no more than 6 IP in last 6 starts).  Alas he remains a strong strikeout asset.  Despite three straight losses, he is still a worthy option, especially against the Giants.

Guillermo Moscoso  (OAK v. LAA) – Home: 6-2, 2.26 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB; road: 2-6, 4.82, 1.43 and 1.2.  Let’s play the numbers here.

Hail Mary:

Dillon Gee (NYM v. WAS) – He has been too inconsistent lately as he too may be suffering from the proverbial rookie wall, but he has three straight outings with six strikeouts and he is markedly better at home with a 3.18 ERA against 5.59 on the road.

 

WEDNESDAY

Standard:

Edwin Jackson (STL @ PIT) – I don’t understand how someone can be as good as he has been this season yet still have ownership rates below 50% at multiple outlets.

Wade Davis (TB @ BAL) – On the heels of a complete game effort with two earned runs against the Red Sox, Davis earns a look against an inferior opponent by comparison.

Derek Holland (TEX v. CLE) – The human rollercoaster.  Someone this inconsistent might be best suited for a Hail Mary, but I believe in his immense talent.  He laid an egg last time out against the Indians, but I think he gets them back.

Hail Mary:

Randall Delgado (ATL v. FLO) – Ultra-talented rookie against a lame Marlins team could end well.  He has been limited innings-wise in his first couple of starts since the recall, but he has also looked strong.

Bud Norris (HOU v. PHI) – Normally a standard pick, but against Roy Halladay his chances at a win are severely limited while the Phillies offense has become more imposing as the season has developed.

Rich Harden (OAK v. LAA) – He has crazy strikeout potential, but I think everyone has had him on their team at one point or another and knows just how maddening it can be.  Tread cautiously.

 

THURSDAY

Anibal Sanchez is still only on 72% of teams at ESPN.  I won’t count him as a pick because he isn’t widely available, but check your league just in case.  He should be back at 100% the way he has been throwing the last month.

Standard:

Brandon McCarthy (OAK v. DET) – Hate to go against my Tigers not only because they are my favorite team, but also because they have been rolling lately.  However, McCarthy has also been rolling and he could stop the locomotive known as the Tigers, especially at home.

Hail Mary:

Homer Bailey (CIN v. CHC) – Strong skills, but gopheritis continues to bite Bailey year after year.  A career-best 3.2 K/BB is worth buying into and it’s been even better the last month with a 5.8 K/BB powered by his 8.2 K/9 in 38 innings.


FRIDAY

Standard:

Javier Vazquez (FLO @ WAS) – I have been rolling him out weekly and it continues this week, though his ownership rate has finally crept above 60%.  Still too low.

Tim Stauffer (SD v. ARI) – Another hometown hero with a 2.76 in PETCO against a 4.95 mark on the road.  The skills are significantly better, too, with 6.5 K/9 and 3.4 K/BB marks at home against 5.7 and 1.7 on the road.  I thought he could be an any venue kind of guy, but it hasn’t played out that way in 2011.

Hail Mary:

Felipe Paulino (KC v. CHW) – A microcosm of his inconsistency can be seen in his last two starts: shuts down the Mariners in Seattle and gets crushed by the A’s in Oakland.  Strikeout potential is significant.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | 2 Comments »

Sunday: 09.11.2011

Sunday Spot Starters

For many teams, Sunday could mark the end of their 2011 season.  Head-to-head leagues are in the playoffs and teams facing elimination will need their team’s best effort to advance on.  Hopefully enough categories are close enough to make winning a possibility as opposed to an unthinkable long-shot.

Since there will be different situations across leagues on Sunday, I will break the picks up between all-in picks and standard picks.  All-in picks are for those who need a miracle and just need to pile up strikeouts, win chances and hope for the best with the rates.  They will want to scoop as many standard picks as they can, but they may also need to dip into the all-in ones depending on availability.

Standard Picks: recommended for anyone employing spot-starting this season.

Javier Vazquez (FLO @ PIT) – He has allowed more than three just once since June 12th, I have no idea how he isn’t on more teams.  He is easily the #1 spot start for Sunday especially with a favorable opponent.

Josh Collmenter (ARI v. SD) – I remain stunned at how little love he has gotten this year even as his sample of quality of work expands.  He is still too available in my opinion.  He has been really sharp since a flameout start to begin August allowing no more than two runs in any of his six subsequent starts.  Throw in a very favorable opponent and he is an easy auto-start.

James McDonald (PIT v. FLO) – Obviously recommending opponents against each other limits the amount of wins you could possibly get, but Vazquez also might be on a team in your league whereas McDonald isn’t as likely to be on one.  He hasn’t quite been as sharp as Vazquez of late, but he hasn’t given up more than three runs since August 5th.

 

All-In Picks: recommending only for team managers desperate to make an impact whether in their final day of their H2H battle or in the waning days of their roto league.

Jake Westbrook (STL v. ATL) – The Braves are reeling having lost 7 of 10 while Westbrook was really sharp his last time out including nine strikeouts.  It was the first time he struck out more than four since July 15th.

Zach Stewart (CHW v. CLE) – After two shellackings, he went & threw a one-hit shutout with nine strikeouts against Minnesota in his last outing.  The odd thing is that one of the shellackings was doled out by the Twins.  He has shown both his upside & downside.  Like the Braves, the Indians are 3-8 in their last 10.

Edinson Volquez (CIN @ COL) – First off he is starting in Coors Field which is enough to make this a Hail Mary pick, but also consider that he is returning from the minors where he was sent for poor performance.  However anyone with any knowledge of Volquez knows just how good he can be so it might worth taking the chance that he returns to the majors with a bang.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Wednesday: 09.7.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 23

The selective approach to last week’s Trolling picks paid off for us as the 10 starters logged a healthy 2.52 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 3.5 K/BB rate.  That isn’t to say I wasn’t aiming for precision with my in-season picks, but the risk threshold has definitely been tightened as we wind the season down because there is less time to come back from implosions.

Monday was the holiday and then I couldn’t get it done before Tuesday & Wednesday day games because of the day job so here are picks for Thursday-Saturday.  Apologies for those of you who needed M-T-W picks.  I’m already working on Week 24 so I have it ready to go right away this weekend along with some Sunday picks on Friday or Saturday of this week.

THURSDAY:

Ivan Nova (NYY @ BAL) – Three straight 7 inning starts in which he allowed just five runs (2.14 ERA) and netted three wins.  In fact, he has won eight straight starts only one of which was anything close to bad (7 ER in 5.3 IP at KC).

Mike Minor (ATL @ NYM) – He carries some risk as he has been a bit inconsistent mixing in a few 4-5 ER starts in with really good ones.  The one constant has been his strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) so if that is a need for your team, he is an auto-start.

Cory Luebke (SD @ ARI) – I have been a fan of his all year, but there may be more risk than you want to take on if you’re protecting ratios.  Two things working against him are that his two starts against Arizona haven’t been very good (7 ER in 11 IP) and his last two starts (one of which was an Arizona start) haven’t been great (8 ER in 10 IP) and some speculate he may be hitting a wall.  I’ll stand firm as the strikeouts remain strong and I think it is more of a bump in the road than something due to fatigue.

 

FRIDAY:

Bud Norris (HOU @ WAS) – He is a perfect spot starter with an ERA nearly a full lower against the bottom feeders (3.44 against sub-.500 teams; 4.37 against better than .500 teams).  His strikeout rate of nearly one per inning remains enticing, too.

 

SATURDAY:

Edwin Jackson (STL v. ATL) – He has a 3.44 ERA with the Cardinals despite the 8 ER beatdown in Milwaukee in his second start with the ballclub.

Anibal Sanchez (FLO @ PIT) – Appears to be improving over his last four and opponent like the Pirates is a great opportunity to stay hot.

 

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Wednesday: 08.31.2011

Top 15 Starting Pitchers for 2012: 10-1

Continuing the top 15 for 2012, let’s go 10 to 1:

10. Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels – While I was higher on his teammate Haren, I wasn’t down on Weaver by any stretch still ranking him 14th and believing almost entirely in his newfound strikeout ability.  Alas the strikeouts were a bit fraudulent (back down 7.5 K/9), but he has improved tremendously on his 2010 rate stats.  His league-best 2.28 ERA continues a three year trend of improvement while his 1.00 WHIP marks a fourth straight year of improvement.

Last year’s 3.01 ERA was greeted with a 3.32 xFIP and 3.15 SIERA suggesting he great, but not quite that great, but this year’s mark is met with great skepticism as shown by his 3.73 xFIP and 3.52 SIERA.  A 6% rise in LOB%, a 2% dip in BABIP and a 3% improvement in HR/FB rate have all combined to deliver the gaudy ERA figure.  He is on pace to finish top three among starting pitchers this year, but I don’t think it is sustainable so while I will remain high on him as a top 10 guy, I’m not sold as top 5.

9. David Price, Tampa Bay Rays – In each of his three full seasons, Price has improved his strikeout and walk rates reaching 8.7 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in his 191 inning so far this year. The 2007 #1 overall pick is panning out about as well as you could hope for a top pick.  In his first full season you saw the skills, but the results were so-so.  He bounced back with improved skills and great results, though they were a bit undeserved.  And finally this year his skills have ticked up yet again and the results are good, but looking at his xFIP & SIERA, they could be even better.

I have Price 9th, but I understand taking him a bit higher based on his potential for more because while the upcoming guys have unimpeachable track records, but they have plateaued a bit.  He has two and 2/3rds (threw 128 IP in 2009) seasons under his belt and his talent is unquestioned, but his age and lean track record land him below these upcoming veterans.

8. Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels – Haren is kind of the forgotten ace these days.  Maybe it because he is boring as a 30-year old with absurdly strong skills and consistency.  He has gone 216 innings or more yearly since 2005 and he’s easily on pace to do the same again this year.  Outside of his debacle of a first half last year, he has posted a 3.33 ERA or better in four of the last five years.  Even if you include last year’s 3.91, he has still been an above average pitcher.  He is on pace to win his league’s K/BB title for the third time in four years (the “off” year was last year’s 4.0) by topping 5.0 with ease and hitting 5.9 in 2009 and 2010.

I love his reliability and lengthy track record.  Add in that he usually goes a cut below these guys he is included with and it is easy to be sold on Haren as your #1 pitcher.  The only downside is that despite logging no fewer than 33 starts in each of the last six years and on pace for a seventh, he has yet to top 16 wins despite how good he has been yearly.  Since this is a ranking of fantasy viability, wins matter and it is why I have him ninth, down two spots from his preseason rank.

7. Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants – Remember when there was mass hysteria over Lincecum earlier this season?  Let me refresh your memory.  In a four start stretch from May 27th to June 11th, Lincecum pushed his ERA from 2.06 to 3.41 walking seven across the final two starts of that stretch and five during the outing just after the run.  Since then he has been one of baseball’s best with a 1.75 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 99 strikeouts in 93 innings.

He is backed by an anemic offense that caps his otherwise substantial fantasy value.  He won 18 during his first full season, but he hasn’t topped 16 since so they gaudy strikeout rate is merely putting him back on par with someone who can be relied on for wins yet with a slightly lesser strikeout rate.  However, he does have a 2.78 ERA and 10.1 K/9 in 850 innings over the last four seasons so I can deal with getting wins elsewhere.

6. C.C. Sabathia, New York Yankees – The definition of “workhorse”, Sabathia is about as bankable as a pitcher gets.  After a couple seasons of skills erosion, he has roared back with a huge 2011 including a full strikeout more than last year up to 8.6 K/9 and his best walk rate since 2008.  Sabathia’s penchant for going deep into games combined with the backing of a perennially prolific offense have led to win totals of 19, 21 and 18 (and counting) during his three seasons with the Yankees.  While he will likely opt out of his current contract to improve his financial standing, it will almost assuredly come from the Yankees leaving that win potential high.

5. Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies – If you don’t like the Phillies for some reason, you might want to quit reading now because as you may or may not have noticed this is our first Phillie in the list, but hardly our last.  Like Lincecum, there was some panic surrounding Lee earlier this season.  After all, he ended April with an ERA of 4.18 and a month later it was only down to 3.94 after he closed the month allowing 6 ER in 5.3 innings.  That said, his skills were nearly flawless and I couldn’t recommend buying him enough.  Most fantasy managers weren’t selling, but those who were regretted it.

Since May 31st, he has gone 10-2 in 14 starts spanning 106 innings with a 1.78 ERA, 0.92 ERA, 8.6 K/9 and 5.1 K/BB.  Without the benefit of a “Since 5/31” leaderboard, I am willing to bet he is no worse than the second-best pitcher in baseball with only a certain Detroit Tiger possibly outclassing him in that timeframe.

4. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers – When it comes to this top 5, there is virtually no separation between the group because it so hard to decide who is more great.  At this point it becomes personal preference.  I went back and forth between Kershaw and Lee for these two spots.  Do you prefer a proven track record or someone on the come up who could legitimately improve or possibly regress due to age and a lack of experience (by comparison)?

Kershaw has been one of just a few bright spots in LA this year with his excellent season on the mound.  His stuff is so filthy that it is hard to believe we have already seen the best of the 23-year old.  He is pacing toward his third straight season of 7.0 hits per game or less allowed including a 6.3 in 2009 that was MLB’s best.  He is also on track for his third straight season of more than a strikeout per inning, but this year he took a major step forward in control resulting in a 4.2 K/BB.

Unlike with hitters, I’m often willing to lean toward the older player when it comes to pitching, but you can’t deny how great Kershaw is at the ripe age of 23 and given that this is him merely meeting and exceeding the hype he got in the minors and early on in his major league career, I expect more greatness from the young southpaw in 2012.

3. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies – The Phorgotten Phillie.  A lot of the attention this year has gone to Lee and teammate Roy Halladay leaving Hamels somewhat neglected given how well he has done.  He is every bit an ace yet he is viewed as a cut below the other two.  I don’t quite see it that way and didn’t before the season, either.  I had Hamels fourth overall this March ahead of Lee and Jon Lester among others and he has backed that up with an excellent season.

In the second half of last year he displayed a never-before-seen groundball skill that I thought, if legit, could transfer him into a bona fide fantasy ace made better by the fact that he wouldn’t have fantasy ace cost as somewhere between the 13th and 17th arm off of the board.  His secondary numbers show that his 2.58 ERA is almost entirely deserved with a 2.90 xFIP and 2.80 SIERA backing up his entrance into fantasy acedom.

2. Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers – There is no denying how great Verlander’s season has been and he has finally emerged as a true fantasy #1, but this is still just his first season with an ERA under 3.37 and WHIP under 1.16.  The strikeouts, the sheer volume of quality innings and the no-hit stuff literally every fifth day are incredible assets he does possess, but one fantastic year isn’t enough to remove the king from his perch atop the starting pitcher list.

His ability to go deep into just about every game he is in has allowed him to pile up 17+ wins in five of six seasons, but I want to see another season of consistently excellent outings before I give him the top spot.  As a diehard Tigers fan, I have long been aware of Verlander’s potential for a season like this, but I remained puzzled by how it continually eluded him.  He is finally having it and I wouldn’t be surprised if it is the start of a series of them.

1. Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies – I don’t care if he is going to be 35 years old next year.  He was 34 this year and he is on track to put up his fourth straight sub-2.80 ERA season.  He has topped 1.4 BB/9 once since 2004 and hasn’t been above 1.3 in the last three years.  The strikeout boost everyone was expecting to come last year never really panned out, instead arriving this year as he upped his mark for the third straight year to 8.7 K/9 (the gains were incremental in 2009 and 2010).

He is getting older, there is no denying that fact, but you also can’t deny the fact that is somehow getting better at the same time.  He is already on pace to improve his strikeout, walk, home run and hit rates (as well as his WHIP) and there is an outside shot that he could actually improve on his 2.44 ERA from last year, too.

I can’t see any legitimate reason to remove him from the top spot when he continues to perform like the best pitcher in baseball.  Sure, he is 4th on ESPN’s Player Rater for SPs this year, but you don’t put a guy #1 expecting him to finish there yearly, rather you put a guy #1 because there is a damn good chance he will be the top guy and his floor is also significantly better than everybody else’s.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Top 15 | 3 Comments »

Monday: 08.29.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 22

Despite just four wins in 11 starts, the picks from last week went well.  All but three went 6+ innings and of the ones who didn’t, two didn’t allow any runs and the third won his game and struck out six batters.  In case you missed last week’s picks, I mentioned that as we approach starts and innings limits in leagues these picks will become more selective.

Obviously some teams are protecting ERA and WHIP and while it is hard to move them much this late in the year, one risky blowup can be costly.  Sure it is costly to have an 8 ER, 2 IP outing in June, too, but you have three-plus months to fix it.  Not only are we running out of time, but moving the needle on these rate stats is tough unless your league’s standings are incredibly tight.

If I do make any riskier than usual picks, I will make sure they are denoted so you can assess it based on your league and your standings.  I have one in mind which is why I even make this point in the first place.

TUESDAY:

Doug Fister (DET v. KC) – If you are in a fierce strikeouts race, I would pass on this one, but otherwise he has been golden since joining the Tigers.  Or maybe not.  He has notched 17 strikeouts in his last three starts (19.7 innings).  I still wouldn’t blindly trust a three start stretch over the rest of his career which shows him as a pitch to contact, control artist.  If you are looking for solid rates and a solid win potential, then make the move for Fister.

Javier Vazquez (FLO @ NYM) – If you are in a fierce strikeouts race, I would pounce on this one, but otherwise Vazquez has been an ERA and WHIP asset with wins in short supply as a part of the pathetic Marlins.  He has a 3.00 ERA and an 0.94 WHIP in 33 August innings.

WEDNESDAY:

Programming Note: This has nothing to do with spot starter picks, but Felix Hernandez and Dan Haren are going toe-to-toe in Seattle on Wednesday and it should be a great watch.

Ted Lilly (LAD v. SD) – He’s been on fire of late, especially in August (2.20 ERA, 0.80 WHIP in 33 IP) so let’s ride the hot hand against a weak team.

Josh Collmenter (ARI v. COL) – I didn’t believe at first, but then he started missing some bats and the success was a lot more believable.  He has had some misses just as any pitcher will, but otherwise he has become a reliable mid-rotation arm.

THURSDAY:

Jacob Turner (DET v. KC) – This would be the risky selection for the week.  It’s a boom or bust pick, but the boom would include everything: strikeouts, 6-7 innings and a chance at a win.  It is merely his second MLB start so this pick isn’t for the faint of heart or the teams with tenuous holds on their ERA & WHIP spots.

Chien-Ming Wang (WAS @ ATL) – Some may find this one risky, but I think it’s a WYSIWYG type of pick.  He won’t strike many batters out, but he can help your ratios.

FRIDAY:

PASS – some potentials like Ivan Nova, Ross Detwiler & Aaron Harang, but all too risky for September

SATURDAY:

Mike Minor (ATL v. LAD) – I’m riding this train the rest of the way out.  The win and strikeout potential combined with the ratio floor not being too low is worth rolling out throughout September.  The only downside in this particular start is that it is against Clayton Kershaw which limits the win potential a bit.

Brandon McCarthy (OAK v. SEA) – Solid arm with a few bumps in the road, but up against a weak opponent at a friendly home park.

Anibal Sanchez (FLO v. PHI) – Another risk pick in addition to Turner.  His talent is immense, but he has struggled mightily since the break (5.05 ERA) despite a strikeout per inning and a 4.6 K/BB in 46 innings.

SUNDAY:

Kevin Slowey (MIN @ LAA) – Close out the week with one more riskbox.  I am a huge Slowey fan, but he has slowly (no pun intended… OK, it kinda was) worked his way back having only returned on August 19th.  The Yankees and Orioles knocked him around, but he dominated the White Sox.  The Angels don’t really scare me as an opponent, but with Slowey working out the kinks there is inherent risk with this start.  If you’re desperate in the final day of your H2H league, go for it.

Other Sunday Hail Marys for H2H Only – Randy Wells, Erik Bedard, Edwin Jackson and Freddy Garcia.  I would only recommend these guys if you need to make up ground in the last day of your H2H match.  Bedard and Jackson are Trolling regulars, but they have tough matchups which is why they are listed here instead of regular recommendations. 

—

I’ve got the top 10 pitchers of the 2012 top 15 left and another piece on starting pitchers near completion for later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Saturday: 08.27.2011

Top 15 Starting Pitchers for 2012: 15-11

Back in late June, I presented my first run at a top 15 for 2012 and as I looked back on the list two months later, I don’t hate it.  There will be changes in the next iteration, but I don’t think it was reactionary to the 2011 season through three months while at the same time accounting for some of the emerging stars from this season.  I will post a second run through of that list soon, but today I wanted to perform the same exercise with starting pitchers.

As we head into September, there is a lot of talk around a pitcher who might be an MVP candidate, not to mention ridiculously deep candidate pools for each league’s Cy Young.  The Year of the Pitcher, Part II has continued in earnest after a hot start to the season with each league lowering its as compared to last year.  As it stands right now, both leagues are toting sub-4.00 marks for the first time since 1992.

The American League’s tenuous grasp there at 3.98 makes it unlikely that the leagues will set 20-year lows, but at 3.98 and 3.85, respectively, there is a good chance the leagues will improve on last year’s 4.14 and 4.02 marks.  Better overall pitching mitigates the impression that some of the year’s surprising performances has made, but the environment can’t change the fact that the top level performances are incredibly stunning.

With a commitment to the fast start that has consistently eluded him (career 4.75 ERA in April), Justin Verlander has taken center stage as the league’s breakout superstar at starting pitcher.  His stuff has never been questioned, but it has been as sharp as ever and seemingly getting better as the season wears on.  Talk of him as an AL MVP candidate has started to pop up, though the list of worthy candidates might be too long for him to pull off the feat for the first time since 1992 when Dennis Eckersley inexplicably won both by a landslide despite deserving neither.  At least if Verlander did it, his case would be airtight for both.

In the National League, Roy Halladay has hardly ceded his perch atop the league checking in behind only Clayton Kershaw in most rankings, but the bar has been set so high for him that a 2.56 ERA/1.05 WHIP season with an improved strikeout rate (8.6, up from 7.9) and no change in his league-leading walk rate (1.1) has been more expected than impressive.  Make no mistake, he is still jaw-dropping and amazing, but Kershaw is right there matching him in innings (190 apiece) then besting him in ERA (2.51), WHIP (1.02), strikeouts (9.8) and wins* (16 to 15).

*Since we’re talking about fantasy value, wins matter.  I’m not using them to say Kershaw is, has been or will be a better pitcher, but the miniscule edge does add to his lead in overall fantasy value. 

As with my top 15 overall players for 2012, I don’t plan on overreacting to anything we have seen in 2011 counter to a player’s history.  They will be credited for it, of course, just not overly so.  An example of this would be Ian Kennedy.  He ranks 12th on ESPN’s Player Rater among starting pitchers and while I was high on him this year (ranking him 41st and in tier 2), I still undershot the mark.  His significant flyball tendencies combined with a park conducive to home runs had me feeling he’d be good, but not great.

He’s been great.  In part due to the fact that he cut his HR/FB rate from 10.8% last year to 9.0% this year.  His xFIP of 3.62 and SIERA of 3.48 are more in line with what I had him down for and as such, he will be ranked accordingly and not in this top 15 for 2012.  So who actually made the first cut?

15. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds – His 2.03 ERA has been remarkably impressive, but he hasn’t backed it with skills conducive to such a mark.  However, I firmly believe he has the talent to do consistently post a mid-3.00 or lower ERA.  This year he has had a significant spike in groundball rate (53%) combined with a barrage of good fortune (5.6% HR/FB rate & .226 BABIP) leading to the shiny ERA that is nearly two runs lower than his xFIP and SIERA.

His hefty groundball rate earns some of the HR/FB and BABIP goodness, but not that much.  Beyond that, his strikeout rate has dipped from 6.7 to 5.8 while his walk rate ticked up to 2.9 per game.  He still has strikeout stuff (as evidenced by his 7.2 K/9 in the last month) but he is learning how to combine it with his newfound groundball abilities.  If he can combine the two, he could legitimately acquire an ERA around this year’s 2.03.

I will admit right away that there were several candidates for the 15-spot so I wouldn’t be surprised if Cueto is bumped out in subsequent iterations.  That said, he has definitely improved his stock.  I will know more after I watch more games of Cueto and the other contenders this offseason, for now he gets the nod.

14. Matt Cain, San Francisco – He continues to significantly out-produce his xFIP totals, but it’s not like his peripherals are a complete mess, either.  His dwindling home run rate is something to behold bottoming out at a barely-visible 3.9% this year (down from 7.4% last year and having never topped 8.4%).

His strikeout rate has been remarkably steady since 2007 fluctuating between 7.1 and 7.7 in the five year period while his walk rate is on a three year decline since 2008.  His groundball rate has climbed to a career-best 41% this year, an interesting development if it sticks.  He has already notched six strong years under his belt yet he will be just 27 years old in 2012.

13. Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox – If his 2011 feels like a disappointment, it is only because it seems like everyone had him as their preseason favorite for American League Cy Young and he has “only” been the 11th best pitcher in his league according to the ESPN Player Rater.

When compared against more realistic expectations, he has remained an excellent fantasy option.  His ERA peaked after a June 7th start when he gave up three in six innings and bumped it up to 3.98, but since then he has posted a 2.23 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 8.3 K/9 in 73 innings of work.

12. James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays – This was my guy for 2011, I loved his prospects to pay huge dividends coming off of an abysmal seasons results-wise yet toting a rock solid skill set ripe for a major comeback.  As someone who never jumps on the superstar pitchers in snake drafts because of their cost, I rely on Shields types to make up ground and he did not disappoint.

In fact, he impressed beyond even my lofty expectations.  It’s no fluke, either.  His skills remain elite and he might finally put together a few consecutive seasons commensurate with those skills.  The only thing that might change for 2012 is his zip code.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rays deal him.  I’m not sure any destination would remove him from the top 15 while a favorable move might bump him up a spot or two.

11. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners – For anyone wondering what’s “wrong” with Hernandez, and there has been talk of it on podcasts, radio shows and in articles at various sites, I’d answer with a resounding “nothing!”.  His ERA has risen more than a run from 2.27 last year to 3.37 this year, but his base skills have been nearly identical.  His strikeout rate has actually bumped up from 8.4 to 8.8 while his walk rate has moved up a mere 0.3 to 2.8 this year.

His xFIP totals the last two years are almost exactly the same.  Last year he was at 3.14 and this year he is at 3.16, so looking only at his ERA and WHIP as compared to last year and trying to squeeze a narrative about how much the Mariners’ lack of success is wearing him down is foolish.  They were god-awful last year, too, and he had an amazing season.  He has been the same, only a little less fortunate.  The only reason he is down here is because that team is so pathetic.  Predicting wins is very difficult, but it has become quite clear that they are far less plentiful for pitchers in Seattle.

I’ll have 10-1 up next.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Rankings, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Top 15 | 2 Comments »

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