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Friday: 08.26.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 21 Weekend

Some pitchers worth streaming into your lineup during the weekend:

SATURDAY:

Erik Bedard (BOS v. OAK) – Hurricane Irene could wash this game out, but I liked him in Texas earlier this week so at home against Oakland is a no-brainer.

Ross Detwiler (WAS @ CIN) – Consider this one more for the risky types.  He’s been great so far this year and I really like him, but he is going into Cincinnati so if you’re protecting ERA and WHIP, then pass.  However, if you’re desperate and don’t mind a solid gamble, then proceed.

SUNDAY:

Bud Norris (HOU @ SF) – Strikeout pitcher gets the Giants in AT&T Park, auto-start.

Cory Luebke (SD @ ARI) – His ownership rates have finally ticked up, but snap him up anywhere he is available.  I won’t count this on the overall results because his ownership is pretty high, but not high enough in my opinion.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Monday: 08.22.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 21 Monday-Friday

Trolling the Wire is back!  As we head down the stretch, inning caps and start caps are likely on the horizon for anyone who has been spot starting for most or at least significant parts of the season.  With that in mind, the Trolling picks the rest of the way will be more focused.  There will be less risk taking and the composite skills profile will be a bigger consideration instead of making significant tradeoffs (high strikeout guy with a less than stable skillset elsewhere).

Here are the week 18 results, which were an absolute abomination by the way:

MONDAY:

Erik Bedard (BOS @ TEX) – Texas remains a bit of a lion’s den, so this certainly doesn’t seem like a risk-averse pick, but Bedard has displayed strong skills there despite poor rates.  I would rather better on skills along with an increased chance for a win with the Boston lineup and defense than worry about an inflated ERA in a 26-inning sample.  (ESPN-52%, Y!-47%, CBS-86%)

TUESDAY:

Bartolo Colon (NYY v. OAK) – He has dominated the lowly A’s this year.  (E-44%, Y-46%, C-83%)

Mike Minor (ATL @ CHC) – Better late than never, right?  I pegged Minor for a big 2011 season, but I didn’t factor in his losing the 5th-starter job to Brandon Beachy, who ran with his opportunity.  Minor has looked strong in his return to the majors, especially with the strikeouts.  (E-3%, Y-9%, C-41%)

WEDNESDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD @ SF) – The Giants lineup has been one to pick on all year even with pitchers far lesser than Stauffer.  (E-33%, Y-53%, C-76%)

Javier Vazquez (FLO v. CIN) – The Reds aren’t complete pushovers, but Vazquez has been dominant the last two months with a 2.45 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 70 innings.  His composite numbers look bad because of the horrid start, but he has been his 2009-self for a legitimate portion of the season.  (E-33%, Y-53%, C-76%)

THURSDAY:

Edwin Jackson (STL v. PIT) – He has a 4.45 ERA with the Cardinals, but it is almost entirely due to the sacrificial lamb outing in Milwaukee when he was left out there to take one for the team and gave up eight earned runs.  Apart from that start, he has a 2.88 ERA in four other starts.  I like him against the Pirates.  (E-24%, Y-44%, C-76%)

FRIDAY:

Ted Lilly (LAD v. COL) – It has taken him much longer than I anticipated, but he has finally had a nice stretch of starts commensurate with his skills (2.45 ERA, 0.85 WHIP in 26 Aug. IP).  Home runs have been his issue all year and throughout a lot of his career to be honest so if this game was in Colorado, I’d pass, but in Chavez-Ravine I like it.  (E-45%, Y-52%, C-58%)

Josh Collmenter (ARI v. SD) – Twice this season he had back-to-back ugly starts and both times he bounced back with a string of nice starts.  He was smashed to close out July and again on August 5th, but he has rebounded with two nice starts and I like him for a third this week.  (E-21%, Y-32%, C-43%)

Weekend picks later this week.

 

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 08.2.2011

Fantasy Impact of NL Players Moving to AL

Fantasy Impact of NL to AL Guys

I’m going to take a look at the guys moved all around during the deadline, but only from the fantasy angle.  So it is less about judging the team’s front office on the returns whether short or long term, but rather about how these players can have fantasy impact for you in the next two months and beyond (for prospects).

Ubaldo Jimenez (COL to CLE) – There is a lot of talk about much Jimenez has struggled this year which is expected because comparing his 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP from 2010 to his 4.46 and 1.37 marks this year tells us he has been significantly worse.  But has he really?  The one significant cause for concern is the drop in fastball velocity from 96 MPH to 93 MPH.  Velocity drops are often an indicator of trouble, but beyond that there isn’t a great deal of difference in Jimenez’s profile.

He has a 2.3 K/BB rate for the third straight with virtually identical components to last year’s: 8.69 K/9 & 3.74 BB/9 in 2010; 8.63 K/9 & 3.73 BB/9 in 2011.  I don’t usually go two places after the decimal point, but I wanted to show just how close it has been.  His xFIP and SIERA are remarkable steady over the last three years with xFIPs of 3.59, 3.60, and 3.56 this year while his SIERAs are 3.77, 3.68 and 3.56 this year.

I realize most leagues don’t use xFIP or SIERA but the point is that he is pitching better than his ERA suggests.  The big differences are a career-high .312 BABIP (.280 and .271 the last two years) and severe struggles with men on base leading to a career-worst LOB% of 67% (74% and 77% the last two years; league-average is around 72%).

Another concern for many is his moving from the NL to AL as it is a league generally tougher on pitchers due in large part to replacing the pitcher batting with a designated hitter.  I would theorize that the change in park factors from Coors Field to Jacobs Field (shut up, Flo from the insurance company) would mitigate the league difference.  Coors Field significantly plays up 1B, 2B, 3B and HR while Jacobs Field plays essentially neutral or pitcher-heavy to all eight (each category for righties and lefties) except left-hander home runs (107 park factor, which is still an improvement from Coors’ 113).

This is the prize of the trade deadline for AL-only leaguers and if you need an arm then you need to take your chances on Jimenez.  He leaves a massively under-performing and disappointing team in Colorado for a pennant race in Cleveland which can only help.  At the very least, I think it would be a neutral factor.  His K/9 when slotted into the AL leaderboard is 6th-best so he is even better in 5×5 leagues.  The velocity drop may in fact be problematic, but his profile says there isn’t a reason for grave concern.  He could be a game-changer down the stretch for any team capable of real traction in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.  Wins are always a crapshoot, but there is no denying that the Indians have been sticking around for four months and this kind of big time trade could spark the whole team.  Or not.  Don’t chase wins.

Colby Rasmus (StL to TOR) – The Blue Jays earned raved reviews for plucking Rasmus from the Cardinals for what amounts to a pile of parts since Edwin Jackson wasn’t really a Jay except in passing.  I do think it was a nice pickup for the long term especially in light of what they gave up, but for the rest of 2011 it might not make that much of a fantasy impact.  Since the potential is there, I understand putting a significant portion of FAAB on him and even encourage it, but you have to be prepared for it to not work out.

The simple fact is he is regressing by the month.  After an .867 OPS in April, he has fallen to .777 then .684 and then most recently .544 in August.  A player of his caliber is unlikely to show up on the wire throughout the remainder of the season so take a chance on the upside if an offensive spark is what you’re missing.  Last year he ended the season on a very high note with a .318/.403/.514 line and four home runs, 12 RBIs, 19 runs scored and two stolen bases in 107 at-bats in September.  Let’s hope this fresh start rejuvenates him and gets back to the Rasmus we saw in 2010 and the first month of 2011.

Mike Adams (SD to TEX) – His move in home ballpark is just about the opposite of Jimenez’s, but as a short reliever there is less chance that it will greatly impact his rock solid skills profile.  He strikes out more than a batter per inning (9.2 K/9), doesn’t walk anybody (1.7 BB/9) and induces a decent amount of groundballs (46%) so I wouldn’t be surprised if he continued to excel despite the move to a hitter’s park in the more hitter-friendly league.

As a reliever, it’s not like he was facing pitchers in the 7th and 8th innings anyway.  He is worth a few bucks as the last man on your pitching staff and might be worth even a few extra bucks if you’re in dire need of saves and don’t mind speculating.  Rangers manager Ron Washington has publicly soured on Neftali Feliz a bit and while that might just be his way of motivating him, he might also be looking for a reason to make a change (even though it’s his fault Feliz is there in the first place when he should be in the rotation).

Kosuke Fukudome (CHC to CLE) – Those in OBP leagues take note, Fukudome has gotten on base at a 36% or better clip all four years in the majors and 37% or better in each of the last three years.  That’s really ALL he does, though.  He has three home runs and two stolen bases on the season.  I understand that leadoff is hardly a run-producing spot in the lineup, but despite more than 300 plate appearances there, Fukudome has 12 RBIs.  The next worst is Austin Jackson with 24.  Of course a lot of that goes on the Cubs and their anemic offense, but he has never had more than 60 RBIs in a season.  He should be looked at as a 4th or 5th outfielder at best.

Brandon Allen (ARI to OAK) – This feels like a pretty typical Oakland pickup, doesn’t it?  Allen has thwarted AAA quite handily alas he is headed back there for now, but many suspect the A’s will give him a legitimate shot to see if they finally have a first basemen who is fantasy relevant (sorry, Daric Barton).  Allen has only gotten 65 games spread out across the last three years and while his line is a meager .213/.325/.404, he does have eight home runs and 27 RBIs, numbers that pace out to 27 and 91 in 600 at-bats.  A dollar reserve player in leagues where reserves are applicable, otherwise keep an eye out for his return to the majors which should happen at some point this year.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, FAAB, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trade Deadline | Leave a Comment »

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Sunday: 07.31.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 18 Monday-Friday

With the trade deadline week as well as end of quarter at my day job, I was hyper-busy and didn’t get a chance to put out any weekend spot starters.  I didn’t want to rush some poor picks and end up burning people.  If the picks are going to be poor, then I want them to be thoroughly researched so I can at least stand behind them confidently.

Let’s take a look at how the last two weeks have gone for the spot starter picks:

There was a nice stretch there last weekend to close out week 16, but the damage was done as Dempster, Holland and Vazquez gave up a combined 18 runs in 13 innings.  The only silver lining to my worst week of the season from an ERA & WHIP standpoint is that the picks struck out 7.9 batters per game, the highest mark since week 11 when the picks had the same rate.  It’s better than nothing, but that’s perfume on a turd, the week still stunk.

Week 17, with just seven picks, ended up pretty strong everywhere but strikeouts so it was sort of a mirror image of week 16.  The week could have been quite exceptional had Collmenter not imploded to cap off the shortened week.  For the season, I am still quite happy with the results of 3.65 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 6.8 K/9 and 2.5 K/BB rates.

Let’s take a look at week 18…

(remember, these are ranked in order of preference on each day so if you only have one spot then pick the first guy listed if you want who I am most confident in.)

MONDAY:

Cory Luebke (SD v. LAD) – Back-to-back losses aren’t dissuading from this bandwagon, especially at home.  Strikeouts remain elite (30 K in 30 IP during July) and he doesn’t walk anyone either (6.0 K/BB in July).

Bud Norris (HOU v. CIN) – After being snapped up from most waiver wires earlier in the season, he is now appearing in free agent pools despite his 8.9 K/9 and 3.39 ERA.  What is the problem exactly?  Buy.

Paul Maholm (PIT v. CHC) – He is a low strikeout guy for the year (5.9 K/9), but had two 8 K outings in July.  Rates have been strong and Cubs are hardly imposing.

Blake Beavan (SEA v. OAK) – Pass if you are in dire need of strikeouts and/or have an innings cap (4.1 K/9).

TUESDAY:

John Danks (CHW v. NYY) – Been excellent in 2 starts since DL return; even more brilliant since a 4 IP/9 ER outing to close out May: 0.98 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 & 5.0 K/BB in 37 IP.  Always dangerous to go against NYY, but this is more about picking up and holding Danks the rest of the way (E-53%, Y!-51%, C-81%) than it is this one start.

Rich Harden (OAK @ SEA) – Only rough outing has come in Texas (unsurprisingly) and he’s allowed 3, 2, 2 & 2 in rest of his starts.  Outside of last year with Texas, he’s been great when healthy and this year is no different (9.2 K/9, 3.0 K/BB).

WEDNESDAY: (random note – Doug Fister & Charlie Furbush both start on Wednesday for their new teams)

Edwin Jackson (STL @ MIL) – Looked sharp in his first outing with the Cardinals and there is no reason to bet on that continuing.  He is another guy I like as a permanent pickup even if this start in Milwaukee doesn’t go exactly like his 7 IP/1 ER outing against the Cubbies.

Tim Stauffer (SD v. LAD) – If you’ve been following Trolling for amount of time this year, you know how much I like Stauffer.  I have no reason why he isn’t heavily owned in ESPN & Yahoo! leagues, he’s available in 21% of CBS leagues.

Gavin Floyd (CHW v. NYY) – He is perennially better in the second half and he is tracking that way again with an 0.81 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 5.3 K/BB in 22 IP spanning 3 GS since the break.  Like Danks, it’s tough to go against the Yanks, but this is more about the rest of the way.

 

THURSDAY:

James McDonald (PIT v. CHC) – Getting knocked around at Philly isn’t a major crime, but just the second time he’d given up more than 3 ER since April 27th.

Brett Cecil (TOR @ TB) – Welcome back to the big leagues, Mr. Cecil.  Under the radar he went off in July posting a 2.19 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 37 IP along with 6.6 K/9 and 3.0 K/BB rates.  That includes two outings against the Rangers (one in Texas) and another in Boston.  Oddly enough his worst outing of the month was a 7 IP/5 ER start against the Seattle Mariners.

 

FRIDAY:

Derek Holland (TEX v. CLE) – Holland has appeared in Trolling three times, but unfortunately none of league-leading four shutouts (tied w/Cliff Lee) have been picked.  It has been feast or famine in July with three of those shutouts and six scoreless innings in another outing during the month while in his other two starts he went a combined six innings allowing 12 earned runs.  His opponent for his first shutout of the year?  Cleveland.

Jeff Niemann (TB v. OAK) – Has been excellent since his return from injury back in late June: 1.88 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 3.4 K/BB in 43 innings across seven starts.  That includes outings against the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals and Brewers so a start against the Athletics is a no-brainer.

Rick Porcello (DET@ KC) – Bounced back from a dismal June (6.97 ERA, 1.81 WHIP) to have a really strong July (3.06 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) including very healthy 6.7 K/9 and 4.8 K/BB rates.

—

More trade analysis pieces coming out throughout Monday & Tuesday, too.

Posted in Analysis, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 2 Comments »

Sunday: 07.31.2011

Fantasy Impact of AL Players Moving to NL

I’m going to take a look at the guys moved all around during the deadline, but only from the fantasy angle.  So it is less about judging the team’s front office on the returns whether short or long term, but rather about how these players can have fantasy impact for you in the next two months and beyond (for prospects).  You’ll see what I mean right away with this first guy…

Edwin Jackson, SP (CHW to TOR to StL) – Jackson is pretty easily the best player who switched from the AL to the NL and for teams in dire need of starting pitching, he will be the perfect jumpstart to their rotation and comes for “free”.  Free in that he simply costs FAAB and your worst pitcher as opposed to going out and trading for a starter which can be costly.  Judging Jackson by his 3.92 ERA at the time of trade is foolish at best and horribly misguided at worst.  Anyone paying attention sees how well he’s been pitching since a rough April (5.86 in 35 IP) having posted a 2.99 ERA in 93 innings including his first start with the Cards.

His second-level numbers are even better with a 3.21 FIP, 3.49 xFIP and 3.69 SIERA.  The WHIP is a bit hefty for the year at 1.41, but again that is inflated by April’s 1.71 mark.  His 1.31 WHIP in the subsequent three months still isn’t great, but it is quite a bit more palpable.  Keep in mind also that WHIP is especially tough to move this late into the season for better or worse.  Over the final two months, Jackson at a 1.31 WHIP might move a team up 0.01 in WHIP and that depends entirely on how the rest of the team’s staff pitches around him.  So don’t overrate that aspect of his game.

Jackson’s 7.1 K/9 rate ranks 27th among qualified starters in the National League and could stand to tick up facing non-DH lineups the rest of the way.  Combine that with his already favorable rates and a better home park and all of a sudden you have an “all-in” type of player when it comes to FAAB if pitching is your biggest need down the stretch. 

Corey Patterson, OF (TOR to StL) – It is Jon Jay who will benefit most from the trade of Colby Rasmus, but Patterson becomes the backup at all three outfield positions so he will get some at-bats on the Cardinals.  A .251/.284/.375 line in 347 plate appearances this year should tell you all you need to know about Patterson and his fantasy prospects.  He does have six home runs with 13 stolen bases so he has a tick of power-speed potential, but at what cost to your batting average?  If you have a dead spot at UTIL or your OF5 and you want to start getting some ABs that could result in something then Patterson warrants a few bucks of FAAB.  Otherwise, pass, because he isn’t an impact player even if he were somehow guaranteed regular playing time.

Derrek Lee, 1B (BAL to PIT) – My thoughts on Lee to Pittsburgh can be found here in greater detail, but from a fantasy perspective his value is similar to what it was in the AL with the Orioles which is to say minimal at best.  He is the 30th rated first baseman according to ESPN’s Player Rater.  In fairness, he has been 14th over the last month so if he stays warmish (.250/.294/.510 w/6 HR, 19 RBI) then he could be a low-level corner infield/utility option.  Then again, I say warmish because most of that 14 ranking is RBI driven which has little to do with actual skill.  He hasn’t been much of a power source in a friendly home like Camden Yards, so don’t expect a sudden uptick in PNC Park.

Marc Rzepczynski (pronounced Zep-chin-skee), RP (TOR to StL) – Dynasty NL-only leaguers might want to file The Chin away for a buck or two looking forward to the future because this 25-year old could move back to the rotation eventually.  He started 23 of his 25 appearances in 2009-2010 before shifting to the bullpen full-time this year.  After two years of a 51% groundball rate in the rotation, he has upped that mark to an eye-popping 65% in 41 relief innings.

All the while his 8+ strikeout rate has maintained (8.1 K/9 the last two years, 8.8 in 2009) suggesting some legitimate promise going forward.  His major hurdle will be figuring out righties more consistently as his strikeout to walk ratio against them is 1.7 while he posts a much healthier 3.2 mark against lefties.  Similarly his OPS allowed goes up 200 points from .578 to .778 when facing righties.

Brad Ziegler, RP (OAK to ARI) – If Jackson’s WHIP in 60+ innings the rest of the way isn’t really going to hurt you then Ziegler’s (1.35 this year and last, 1.50 in 2009) in far fewer innings (maybe 20 or so) will barely register.  Ziegler is a solid real-life reliever, but he doesn’t strikeout enough batters (career best 6.9 K/9 this year, career total of 6.0) to even have much NL-only value as your ninth pitcher on the staff.

Octavio Dotel, RP (TOR to STL) – Dotel does have the strikeouts that Ziegler doesn’t (9.2 K/9 this year, 10.9 career), but his ERA is always around the mid-3.00s and you can definitely find a high strikeout, low ERA guy who would better fit that middle reliever last spot on your staff.

Orlando Cabrera, SS (CLE to SF) – When bringing in a guy with a  .268 wOBA improves you at a position, there is trouble at that position on your team.  Cabrera, owner of the aforementioned .268 wOBA, is marginally better than Miguel Tejada (.260) and Brandon Crawford (.239), but he has been abysmal defensively at second base so why would the Giants think he could be better at shortstop?  He has zero fantasy value so don’t let the name recognition fool you into a bad move.

The only way I could see justifying so much as a dollar of your FAAB on him is if you have a dead spot at shortstop and your standings are tight in runs scored and driven in and you want to get something out of the roster spot.  And even then, you better not have a tenuous hold on your batting average spot because his .244 isn’t doing you any favors.  Perhaps he gets back to the .263 level he showed in the NL a year ago and hurts less.

—

There will be several pieces like this including:

  • NL players moving to AL
  • NL players changing teams in NL
  • AL players changing teams in AL
  • AL prospects moving to NL
  • NL prospects moving to AL
  • NL prospects changing orgs in NL
  • AL prospects changing orgs in AL

I think this is easier for fantasy purposes that analyzing every single trade one-by-one.  I’ll have them all out as soon as possible, but it might not be finished until Tuesday.  In the meantime, if you want my opinion on a traded player for your FAAB or waiver pickups that happen sooner, mention something in the comments below or hit me up on Twitter (@sporer) and I’ll get to you there.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, FAAB, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trade Deadline | Leave a Comment »

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Tuesday: 07.26.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 17 Monday-Friday

Way behind here.  I’ll have the Week 16 results out later.  In the meantime, here are this week’s picks:

TUESDAY:

Brandon McCarthy (OAK v. TB) – I could go a few strong innings in Oakland’s home ballpark

Vance Worley (PHI v. SF) – I don’t think he’s keeping a 2.02 ERA all year, but the peripheral numbers aren’t terrible.  Meanwhile, SF’s lineup is.

WEDNESDAY:

Cory Luebke (SD v. ARI) – Still widely available.  Still don’t know why.

Phil Hughes (NYY v. SEA) – :grabsdice: Yes, Oakland pounded him, but their offense is the ’27 Yankees compared to Seattle’s.  If they knock him around, I’m done with him at least for the remainder of this season.

THURSDAY:

Matt Harrison (TEX v. MIN) – Speaking of inept offenses…

FRIDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD v. COL) – His ownership rates have dipped down for some reason lately.  Sign me up.

Josh Collmenter (ARI @ LAD) – I’m on the Collmenter Train.  He’s not great, but he’s not a complete fluke, either.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Friday: 07.22.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 16 The Weekend

Quick hits on this weekend’s spot starter recommendations.

SATURDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. DET)

Own rates: E-55%, Y!-60%, C-88%.

Career best strikeout rate (8.5 K/9), ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.175) yet he’s getting less respect from the fantasy community than in the last three-four years.

I like him more as a pickup & hold than specifically for this matchup.  His career isn’t great against the Tigers, but he needs to be on a team, regardless of format.

Tom Gorzelanny (WAS @ LAD)

Own rates: E-1%, Y!-4%, C-9%

He’s held the strikeout gains shown last year (8.1 K/9) while improving his walk rate (from 4.5 to 2.9 BB/9)

Dodgers are 27th-ranked offense in terms of runs scored and 24th in terms of OPS

Josh Collmenter (ARI v. COL)

Own rates: E-27%, Y!-34%, C-41%

Becoming a believer thanks to increased strikeout rate (6.9 K/9 in 55 IP spanning 9 starts) as it pairs with an excellent walk rate to produce a 3.2 K/BB

Rockies have fewest runs in baseball on the road with their team OPS dropping from .807 to .663

Edwin Jackson (CHW @ CLE)

Own rates: E-13%, Y!-38%, C-65%

Offers pretty consistent strikeouts with 5+ Ks in five of his last seven starts

In the other two, he went 15 innings with a 1.20 ERA & 1.33 WHIP (17 H, 3 K, 3 BB) including a shutout v. Detroit

Indians lead the American League in strikeouts

SUNDAY:

Bartolo Colon (NYY v. OAK)

Own rates: E-31%, Y!-41%, C-80%

The Rays were a nice remedy for the struggling Colon (1 ER in 6.3 IP w/9 K on 7/19 in TB), but the A’s are an even better remedy for staying hot

Felipe Paulino (KC v. TB)

Own rates: E-13%, Y!-38%, C-65%

He has 7+ Ks in each of his last four starts and a 8.7 K/9 in eight starts since joining the Royals

This guy just works better as a starter for some reason & the Royals seem to recognize that finally

 

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 07.17.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 16 Monday-Friday

The All-Star break made for a really short week in fact most (all?) head-to-head leagues extend the “week” of play through next Sunday which is the right thing to do because assigning a win or loss on just four days of play would be really weak.  If you followed the post-break picks in your league, you are off to a great start as there was really only one bad start out of the seven and even that wasn’t a complete meltdown.  It was Doug Fister‘s four runs allowed in seven and two-thirds with just a strikeout.  Ted Lilly yielded four runs in just six and two-thirds, but he struck out nine so his start was a bit better.  Beyond that, there were several gems to start off the post-break second “half”:

MONDAY:

Chris Capuano (NYM v. FLO) – Remember the days when a 4.12 ERA on the waiver wire would be a godsend and an auto-pickup?  Ah, the mid-2000s.  Now it yields a 91 ERA+ and barely gets a second look, but Capuano has been pretty strong since his rough April during which he posted a 6.04 ERA in 25 innings.  Three blowup starts out of 13 since are what keeps him from better overall numbers, well that and the fact that he had to chisel away on a 6.04 in the first place.  He has a 3.49 ERA in 77 innings since April 29th with an 8.0 K/9 making worth a look against Florida.

TUESDAY: Let us mourn the loss of Tim Stauffer from waiver wires everywhere as his ownership rate has climbed to 83% in CBS, 74% in ESPN and 62% in Yahoo! leagues.  Honestly, that is still too low, but he is on too many teams to be considering for Trolling the Wire until further notice. 

Rubby de la Rosa (LAD @ SF) – If you have been reading the content here for a while then you know I am a big fan of this kid.  He has thrown 96 total innings this year between AA and MLB compared to 110 last year and while the Dodgers haven’t said much about a potential innings limit, there is speculation that he won’t go much beyond 130-140 especially considering he has made the jump from AA, albeit successfully.  That has little bearing on this upcoming start, but if you are in a re-draft league then you might consider flipping de la Rosa as soon as possible.  You might find someone willing to bite.  In the meantime, enjoy his strikeout per inning and incredible potential.

WEDNESDAY:

Aaron Harang (SD @ FLO) – The crafty vet has been great since returning from the disabled list (13 shutout innings) and since his ERA peaked at 5.05 after a disastrous outing in Colorado on May 14th (7 ER in 4.3 IP), Harang has been excellent toting a modest 1.35 ERA in 47 innings with 6.3 K/9 and 2.4 K/BB rates though just a 2-0 record thanks to woefully inept offense “supporting” him.  While he is better in Petco Park, he isn’t a Petco-only and thus looks like a nice start in Florida.

Ryan Dempster (CHC v. PHI) – When you enter June with a 6.00 ERA and proceed to damage it further in your first start (6 ER in 5 IP pushing it to 6.32), you can have a lot of good work go unnoticed because of the massive hole that has been dug.  That is the case with Dempster.  Since that June 3rd start, he has a 1.99 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 45 innings spanning seven starts along with 8.8 K/9 and 3.7 K/BB rates.  Dempster is still available in over 50% of ESPN while CBS (83%) and Yahoo! (69%) leagues are more keen to his recent hot streak.

Derek Holland (TEX @ LAA) – Back-to-back shutouts earns you a look even if Holland’s came against the A’s and Mariners.  He has allowed just nine hits with 15 strikeouts and three walks against the two offensively-starved teams.  The Angels are hardly a powerhouse so let’s ride Holland’s hot streak.

THURSDAY:

Javier Vazquez (FLO v. SD) – Speaking of a hot streak, Vazquez has been white-hot the last month yet few are noticing as his season ERA is still sitting at a ghastly 5.14 in 103 innings.  Alas, he has a 1.69 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his last 37 innings since June 16th with 7.1 K/9 and 9.7 (!) K/BB rates.  You read right, he has 29 strikeouts and just three walks during his run. This run would earn a look against most teams, but it becomes a no-brainer against the lowly Padres.

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. STL) – He has been a favorite for Trolling appearing five times with mixed results (3.72 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 21 K, 9 BB & 2 W in 29 IP), but he has been really strong the last two months with a 2.83 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.9 K/BB and seven wins in 70 innings (11 starts).  He is on teams in 68% of CBS leagues, but just 35% and 13% in Yahoo! and ESPN, respectively.

FRIDAY:

Cory Luebke (SD @ PHI) – Still undervalued & still dominating.  He has been incredible in three July starts for Trolling readers with a 1.89 ERA and 20 Ks in 19 innings and I am going to keep him on this list until he is no longer widely available.  Essentially, he has filled the Stauffer role.

 

 

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Thursday: 07.14.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 15 Friday-Sunday

Did you read my mind & pick up Aaron Harang for a spot start today?  No?  Wow, that was dumb of you.  He was the only guy I really liked today, but didn’t have time to post my picks as I was busy with the day job.  As of this writing, he has thrown five scoreless at home against the Giants.  Of course, halfway through the season, hopefully you would be able identify an under-owned Harang against a weak offense in the best pitcher’s park in the world as a viable spot start option.

For those still wanting the assistance, I am here to help so let’s take a look at some picks for the weekend (I’m one of those who lumps Friday in with the weekend, it should be a day off anyway).  But first, we will look back on the bloodbath that was week 14.

Not even the good fortune of picking Harang & Rubby de la Rosa who had dueling no-hitters through five innings and each went on to throw six shutout innings apiece could erase the carnage of Carlos Carrasco’s two starts along with the implosions of Edinson Volquez and Bartolo Colon.  By the way, Colon pitched in Toronto tonight and was dominated for eight runs in two-thirds of an inning.  Mercifully for his fantasy team managers, only three runs were earned, but the eight runners allowed is going to sting.

FRIDAY:

Justin Verlander (*checks ownership rates*… What??? How is he on 105% of teams??  Nevermind.)

Vance Worley (PHI @ NYM) – This kid has been great in his second go-round with an 0.72 ERA in four starts since coming back up on June 18th.  You would like to see his 6.5 K/9 tick up a bit, but it is passable.  Meanwhile his 3.6 BB/9 is inflated by one outing where he walked four in six innings.  He has walked two in each of the other three outings.

Doug Fister (SEA v. TEX) – The Mariners hate him for some reason so there is virtually no chance that he logs a win, even if he goes nine and allows two runs, but the chances of a quality outing at home are very strong.

SATURDAY:

Cory Luebke (SD v. SF) – This kid’s ownership rates should be skyrocketing after each of his starts, but he might get the Tim Stauffer treatment whereby he has to prove himself for three months before he will finally be trusted.  Hopefully that is the case, that will leave us spot starting fans a gem to use every fifth day.  Luebke’s numbers aren’t just built off of his 39 relief innings.  He has a 1.06 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 21 innings along with 11.1 K/9 and 7.0 K/BB rates.  He is an auto-start right now, especially at home.

Rich Harden (OAK v. LAA) – One good start at home, one rough start in Texas.  The latter was an easy layoff, but I am comfortable trotting him back out there for this home start against the Angels.  The Angels don’t have an overwhelming lineup and that home ballpark always helps.

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. PHI) – One of the unnoticed bright spots for the Mets has been Niese who has allowed more than three runs just once in his last 10 starts.  During that stretch he has a 2.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate.  His 3.8 K/BB rate is quite impressive, too.  The 24-year old just continues to improve and I am surprised to see that he is on just 13% of ESPN leagues right now.

SUNDAY:

Ted Lilly (LAD @ ARI) – I think he is going to have a big second half.  His skills have produced an xFIP nearly  a full run lower (3.99) than his 4.79 ERA through 107 innings.  He doesn’t walk anyone (1.9 BB/9) and his 6.6 K/9 is pretty good, though a full strikeout under his rate from the last two years.  He has always been a huge flyball pitcher so that isn’t a major concern and I expect him to regress back toward his mean over the remainder of the season.  He could also find himself dealt by July 31st and his destination would play a role in his value of course, but for now I’m buying.

Homer Bailey (CIN @ STL) – Most head-to-head leagues aren’t just going with a four day week.  However, if yours is and you are protecting an ERA and/or WHIP lead, I would pass on Bailey, but if you have all next week to go still he is a solid gamble especially for some strikeouts.  He, too, could be instrumental down the stretch as his big second half in 2010 (3.55 ERA, 9.2 K/9 in 58 IP) earned him sleeper value coming into this season.

 

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Friday: 07.8.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 14 The Weekend

Quick rundown of the weekend Trolling picks…

SATURDAY:

Rubby de la Rosa (LAD v. SD) – de la Rosa is starting to round into form.  His command is starting to show in these starts and he is going deeper into games.  He was really struggling right around the fifth inning of most of his June starts, but looks like he might have turned a corner in the last two going seven strong in both allowing a total of four runs (2.57 ERA) striking out nine, but more importantly walking just three (1.9 BB/9).  Let’s see if he keeps it going against a weak Padres offense.

Also, from a long-term standpoint, his place in the rotation is all but guaranteed barring a collapse as Jon Garland is now scheduled for slated for season-ending surgery next week.  de la Rosa is a spot starter in most mixed league formats right now, but he could definitely play himself into a permanent role so if you have the open space and need a strikeout pitcher, you might want to start considering him for the long-term in mixed leagues with more than 10 teams.

Aaron Harang (SD @ LAD) – While his home-road ERA splits are egregious (3.28/4.84), his road peripherals are actually much better as he has posted 8.5 K/9 and 3.0 K/BB rates against 5.3 and 1.9 marks at home.  I think both sides or at least either side of the matchup is worth a spot start.

SUNDAY:

Carlos Carrasco (CLE v. TOR) – His bombing against the Yankees has scared some back off of the bandwagon, but I’m pressing on.  He had just ripped them in seven innings in Yankee Stadium so I’m chalking the thrashing up to just one of those games.  He remains a useful spot starter.

 

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