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Tuesday: 05.10.2011

The Death of “Buying Low”

A few weeks back, I was having an email discussion with Ray Guilfoyle from FakeTeams.com and we were discussing some pitchers to buy.  A phrase that surfaced was one we see a ton early on in the season, “buy low”.  It doesn’t matter what outlet you are reading or podcast/radio show you’re listening to, you will hear discussion about buying low on a player sooner or later.

I’m not looking down my nose at those who use it as I have said it plenty myself, but I think it’s a misnomer.  I had been thinking it for a while and shared my thoughts with Ray who shared my thoughts on the matter.  Rarely are you going to be able to truly buy low on an asset.  Do you really think there was any legitimate discount on Albert Pujols early on in the season when he was struggling to get going?  How often do owners really slash prices on their early round picks who are underperforming in the first handful of weeks?

I think it is time to dispose of the phrase altogether or at least change the definition of it.  When people think of buying low right now, they think they can go out and get a player at something less (often dramatically less) than 100% of his value based on his performance.  What the “low” of buying low should mean is that a player’s numbers are under expectations.  You’re buying when his stats are low, not his value.  That said, I doubt we would see a shift in the phrase’s meaning thus abolishing it altogether is the likely the way to go.

Think about it this way, most owners know that when you inquire for their guy hitting below the Mendoza Line, you obviously believe he is going to rebound.  You wouldn’t purposely buy someone who is struggling if you thought it was going to continue that way.  Your interest will almost certainly raise the antenna of an owner on that player and he is NOT going to be undercut 99 times out of 100.

When I recommend a buy, I’m OK if his cost is still one hundred cents on the dollar (in other words 1:1) because I think that player will rebound to expected levels meaning you’re buying all of (or at least most of) his goodness.

Let me be clear before I get a flood of tweets and emails about trades where people got underperforming stars for 75 cents (or less) on the dollar that I am speaking generally.  I understand that it will happen at times, but by and large it is a thing of the past and in a league of keen owners, you’re not going to lift their top players on the cheap because a poor three or four-week spell.

I would also stress that it depends on the caliber of player.  Some third and fourth tier players who get off to weak starts might be had on the cheap, but they weren’t going to cost much even if they performed up to expectations because they are third and fourth tier guys.

So with that said, who are some guys worth buying on?

Hanley Ramirez (.208, 1 HR, 13 RBI, 15 R, 8 SB) – This is exactly the kind of guy I am talking about.  Do you really think Hanley owners are going to take a poo-poo platter headlined by Darwin Barney and Kevin Correia for a guy who was the second and sometimes even first pick of the draft?  I don’t see it happening.  If anything, his price might be raised to make owner throw in the towel on him and miss out on all of his great stats.  I don’t recommend overpaying, but I would pay a reasonable full value price for the stud shortstop.  The top trade on CBS has Hanley teamed with Brett Anderson and Justin Smoak for Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler.  There is no discount there (nor should there be).

Jason Heyward (.220, 7 HR, 14 RBI, 18 R, 2 SB) – The seven homers still stand out, but the ugly batting average might have opened up the smallest little crevice for the first time since Opening Day of last year that his owner might actually consider trading him.  Throw in a sore right shoulder suffered tonight (Tuesday, May 10th) and there may be a slight bit of trepidation creeping into the mind of the Heyward team owner.  Don’t be afraid to pay full price (unless the injury is super-serious), but it is a great time to at least inquire.

Carl Crawford (.210, 1 HR, 9 RBI, 11 RBI, 5 SB) – Part of this buy v. buy low is of course perception.  You may be paying a price that you feel is a buy low while others may think you paid equal value and still someone else might think you overpaid.  A recent trade in my 13-team mixed league saw Crawford and Fausto Carmona go for Jered Weaver and Nick Swisher.  Is that a discount for Crawford?  I don’t think so.  Swisher is going to regress to his mean for the other owner.  Carmona is a wildcard because there has been some skills improvement (strikeout, walk and groundball rates all better), but either way I think Weaver is a significant price to pay for Crawford.  And it should be that way, of course.

Nelson Cruz (.219, 7 HR, 18 RBI, 13 R, 1 SB) – Here’s a shocker to nobody in the world: Cruz is on the disabled list.  It’s making a bid to push out “taxes” and pair up with “death” for that cliché about certainties in life or at the very least get its own Geico commercial.  He has just eight ribbies after putting up 10 in the first nine days.  That said, he is an elite across-the-board threat who puts up full season totals in less than 130 games a year.  I wouldn’t trade for him in H2H weekly leagues, but roto leaguers may want to check in and see what he costs.

Adam Dunn (.176, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 10 R, 0 SB) – Dunn has the 2nd-worst average among major league regulars right now (Kelly Johnson & Jorge Posada tied at .174) which is awful even for a guy like Dunn who you expect to struggle with gathering hits.  The real issue is that this perennial 40-home run hitter has just three putting him on pace for a mere 13.  I certainly don’t see that continuing.  If you are in an OBP league, his 20 walks give him a .315 OBP which isn’t good by any stretch, but passable enough not to kill you as compared to those in a batting average league where the sub-.200 stings a bit more.  Dunn has averaged 6.5 home runs per month the last five years, and even if he just does that from here on out you’ve got about 31 home runs coming your way the rest of the season.

Carlos Santana (.214, 5 HR, 18 RBI, 16 R, 0 SB) – Like Heyward, the only major struggle is the batting average.  And like Heyward, that may be enough to finally open up an opportunity where his owner would be open to trading him.  Perhaps, he is worried that there are residual effects from last year’s injury or that is he just an overhyped prospect (neither are true).  Whatever it is, if it is there, it’s to your benefit.  Check the temperature and see if you can acquire this rising star.

These names shouldn’t surprise you much.  A lot of you might be thinking “Duh Paul? Of course I’d like to get that guy”, but my point is that you should be interested in acquiring them even if it costs your Roy Halladay or Mat Holliday or Joey Votto or Dan Haren.  Or whoever else you may have who is off to a great start, but can reasonably be dealt for these guys and from your team without decimating it.

If you can get these guys at any sort of discount, then by all means, but if you go in with the mindset of buying low or bust, you are likely going to come away disappointed more often than not.  What you really need to ask yourself after identifying what you believe is a “buy-low” target is, “Would I deal him away for anything less than 1:1 value?”  If (and when) that answer is invariably “no”, then you know you should be ready to pay an appropriate price based on the expectations and long-term track record of the player.

Tomorrow I’ll share some pitchers that I’m buying at fair market value despite sub-optimal starts to the season. 

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Sunday: 05.8.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 6 Monday-Friday

Coming into the season, Scott Baker would have never been someone I would have imagined putting on my Trolling the Wire recommendation list because he is someone who was drafted or purchased at auction regardless of league format.

There was a tick of uncertainty with his rotation spot during Spring Training as the Twins did their best to show they didn’t care that much about winning (Nick Blackburn?  Really?), but in the end he landed a spot and Kevin Slowey was the odd man out.  Baker stumbled out of the gate allowing four runs in each of his first two starts across 11 innings which inexplicably led to the fantasy community at large distancing itself from Baker.

As a long-time fan of Baker despite his being a Twin (and my being a Tigers fan), this struck me as odd.  His ERA has left a bit to be desired in shallow mixed leagues three of the last four years, but his skills always said he was a  sub-4.00 ERA kind of pitcher.  Meanwhile his strikeout and walk rates were rock solid the last three years as the former ranged from 7.4 to 7.8 and the latter held firm from 2.2 to 2.3.

His chronic issue has been home runs allowed.  Longballs have been a problem of Baker’s throughout his entire career and they are the main reason that his pedestrian ERA rarely matches up with his near-elite skills profile.  A lot of good work can be erased in one swing when you are prone to gopheritis.

In those first two starts back in April, he allowed two home runs in each.  In the first start the homers accounted for all four runs of damage while he yielded two solo shots in the second start.  I have recommended Baker twice this season since those first two starts and those who picked him up have enjoyed two of his four excellent outings since those first two.

After the April 10th start, he had a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings.  Since then he has dropped his ERA below 3.00 to 2.97 allowing just five runs in his last 28.3 innings of work.  In that time he has allowed just two home runs (a pair of solo shots to Boston in his last outing) while striking out 25 and walking a mere four (6.3 K/BB).  In other words, he has joined the Hold List.

He is owned in just two thirds of CBS leagues, 32% of Yahoo! leagues and a meager 18% of ESPN leagues.  He is someone you can confidently start regardless of opponent and venue at this time.  At the very least, he will bring you a well-above average strikeout rate (7.8 against AL average of 6.6) and excellent WHIP (1.14 compared to AL average of 1.29) thanks to elite control.  The upside is that he could match his 2008 ERA of 3.45 or at least just reach the sub-4.00 levels that his skills have suggested in the past.

Baker’s excellent start from Friday wasn’t a part of this week’s spot starter recommendations, but that didn’t keep the group from having the best week yet.  The 14 recommendations started 13 times (Sam LeCure did not pitch) with just one allowing more than three runs (R.A. Dickey, 6 ER v. SF).  Nine of the 13 pitchers allowed fewer than three runs allowing the group to post the first sub-3.00 ERA week of the season.

The frustrating part is that despite the excellent starts night after night, the group only managed four wins.  Compare that to five of the 10 recommendations from last week getting wins despite the group faring much worse and you have exhibit 9,271,584,336 of why projecting and chasing wins is stupid and not worth your time.  Worry about skills, let the wins come to you.

Let’s see what week 6 brings us.

MONDAY:

Travis Wood (CIN @ HOU) – I had some trepidation about Wood coming into this season as I worried that he might not be able to repeat his 3.51 ERA without legitimate skills improvement.  But I didn’t have him down for a 6.21.  His skills have been way too good to merit such an ugly ERA and a trip to Houston is a nice elixir to get things going back in the right direction.  His last start was against the Stros at home and he allowed two runs and struck out seven over six innings, a repeat performance would be welcomed.

Edwin Jackson (CHW @ LAA) – Jackson got off to a nice start this season before two implosion starts tanked his ERA taking it from 3.51 to 5.86 in just 9.7 innings.  I am not willing to give up on him at this point as the talent is still there in spades.  I’ll take a shot here that he builds off of his big start against Minnesota that was overshadowed by Francisco Liriano’s no-hitter.

TUESDAY:

Joel Pineiro (LAA v. CHW) – His late start to the season has kept him under the radar as he is massively under-owned despite two strong starts to begin his season.  His highest ownership rate among the three major outlets is a 32% mark in Yahoo! leagues which still leaves him plenty available for to jump on before your league wises up.  He isn’t a huge strikeout guy and never will be, so innings cap leaguers in major need of strikeouts might want to look elsewhere on this one.

Jason Hammel (COL v. NYM) – Hammel been excellent following a shaky season debut where he allowed four runs in five innings against the Dodgers.  He has posted a sub-2.00 ERA in the subsequent five starts allowing more than two just once.  He gets to face a mediocre Mets offense that he fared pretty well against back in early April in his second start of the season.  He held the Mets to just two earned in six innings allowing seven baserunners.

Jake Arrieta (BAL v. SEA) – Our first trio of the season on a given day.  Arrieta is the pick for the more strikeout-starved teams thanks to outings of eight and nine strikeouts in two of his last three.  The anemic Mariners offense strikeouts 4th-most in the AL so Arrieta should have another fan-friendly outing.

WEDNESDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. DET) – His last appearance on Trolling before officially joining the Hold List.

Jake Peavy (CHW @ LAA) – It is his first start off of the disabled list and some owners are vehemently against starting a guy in that situation, but Peavy, a strikeout pitcher, gets to face the Angels who strikeout the most in the American League.  It’s a gamble with an injury risk like Peavy, but if he goes out and dominates, you might not get another chance to pick him up so better to be early.

THURSDAY:

Jon Garland (LAD @ PIT) – Congratulations to the Pirates for being .500 this late into the season, but it isn’t because of their 25th-ranked offense.  This team strikes out more than any in baseball and this is the kind of spot that guys like Garland excel despite not possessing overwhelming stuff.

Charlie Morton (PIT v. LAD) – He has done some great things this season, but he has an uneven skills profile looking at it in full.  The strikeout total for the season is worrisome at 4.7, but he’s up to a very useful 6.8 in his last four starts.  His season total is held down by the fact that he managed just six in his first three starts totaling 22 innings.  He was someone I really liked to take a step forward this year and become useful in any NL-Only format and possibly ramp up enough for mixed league viability.  He could become a Trolling regular in the coming weeks.

FRIDAY:

Dillon Gee (NYM @ HOU) – Splitting time between starting and relieving, the samples are small but he has been much better in the former thus far.  He has a 2.65 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and a 2.0 K/BB in 17 innings as a starter.  A four run implosion in a 1.7 inning relief outing has inflated his season numbers.  I think the skills are good enough that we could eventually see Gee hit the Hold List over the summer.  For now, he’s a good spot starter.

Ryan Dempster (CHC v. SF) – Check your league’s wire, he could be available.  He really shouldn’t be so if he is, make him a permanent hold.  He just got off to an ugly start, plain and simple.  Home runs were positively killing him, but they have never been a major problem in the past so that will regress in his favor.  We are already seeing it in his last two starts.

He has gone 14 innings allowing just three runs (1.92 ERA) striking out nine, walking two and allowing one home run (a solo shot on Sunday to Drew Stubbs).  Sometimes guys have terrible stretches that can’t be explained away by injury or significant skills change.  It could just be something within his delivery that he is working to correct then all of a sudden he will be back to his 200 inning/near-8 Kper9/mid-to-high 3.00s ERA self.

As always, look for the weekend picks later in the week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | 1 Comment »

Thursday: 05.5.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 5 The Weekend

OK, I am going to stop recommending Sam LeCure because he never pitches when I put him on the Trolling the Wire list.  Those who have pitched are doing pretty well as a whole so far this week so hopefully I can keep the momentum rolling with some strong weekend picks.

By the way, I am adding Bud Norris to “Hold” list with Brandon McCarthy.  I think both are worth keeping on your roster permanently pretty much regardless of league format.  He is piling up strikeouts (10.9 K/9) and walking 1.5 fewer batters than last year (3.0 BB/9 in 36 innings).  He will make his final appearance on TtW this weekend*.

(*unless he falls off the Hold List at some point in the season.  That would require a series of poor starts, but we’ll cover falling off the Hold List at a later time if McCarthy, Norris or any other participants fall off.)

SATURDAY:

Norris (HOU @ PIT) – He’s cutting up much better talent so of course I like him against the Pirates and their 25th-ranked offense according to runs scored.  Maybe the removal of Brandon Lyon as closer will increase Norris’s chance at a win, too.  In the interest of full disclosure, I have not checked to see if Lyon has blown any Norris starts.

Tom Gorzelanny (WAS @ FLO) – Off to a strong start this year, Gorzelanny seems to have refined his approach a bit resulting in some strong numbers.  In his first start he allowed five earned runs in five and a third while striking out eight.  He hasn’t approached that strikeout mark again topping out at four, but hasn’t allowed more than two in any of the four starts.  He has been great in his two starts against Florida for his career, too, setting up a nice matchup for him to continue his strong start.

SUNDAY:

James McDonald (PIT v. HOU) – This was a guy I loved coming into the season and he got off to a pretty slow start last just 4.7 innings in his first start then allowing 5, 6 and 8 earned runs in his next three.  He has put together a pair of strong six inning starts during his last two outings allowing just two runs, striking out eight and winning both decisions.  Despite their overall ineptitude, Houston is 10th in runs, but that offense doesn’t really strike fear in anyone.  Brett Wallace is the only one with a better than .900 OPS while Hunter Pence is the only other one above .800 among full-time players (Jason Bourgeois has a .929 in 46 AB).

Erik Bedard (SEA v. CHW) – Let’s pick on the White Sox while they are down.  I think by season’s end they will be performing way better, but right now they are horrible with a .670 OPS that ranks 23rd in baseball.  Plus it’s at home which only helps pitchers.  Bedard is still getting on his feet after not pitching for all of 2010.  I think that is an underrated factor that many don’t account for when analyzing him.  It was a bit unreasonable to expect an automatic return to what we are used to out of him, but now we can see him rounding into form with a pair of strong starts against Detroit and Texas.

Results for Week 5 and the weekday picks for Week 6 coming on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Tuesday: 05.3.2011

Trading for Superstars: What’s Left?

As we turn the calendar on the first full month of the baseball season, the trade wires will begin firing up in earnest as teams maneuver to plug holes left by the spate of injuries and slow starts around the majors.  On the other end of those struggling are the superlatives who are off to record-setting starts.

Slotting one of those players into your lineup is a cure many would love to administer to their team.  Of course it is those who are doing the best that can be toughest to trade for in terms of trade value.  Will they continue?  If not, how much will they fall off?  How much should one month boost their trade value as compared to where they were drafted or what their salary was in the auction?

These questions and more are what lie ahead for owners as they contemplate offers and discuss a myriad of trade possibilities.  I am going to look at 10 of the best performers thus far (five hitters, five pitchers) and work through an exercise whereby we try to figure what exactly is “left” for them.  In other words, what are they going to offer you if you trade for them?

An owner who traded for Ubaldo Jimenez after his sick April in which he threw 24.3 innings of 0.79 ball with 31 strikeouts winning all five of his starts got back 187.3 innings of 3.27 ERA with 14 wins in 28 starts.  A far cry from his April work, but still very useful especially to a team in need of pitching.  But at what cost?  If his trade mate charged him a Roy Halladay price then he may not have been so happy as he didn’t get the sub-3.00 excellence linked to baseball’s best pitcher.

We will look at the five pitchers today.  First we will see what they would have left if they merely managed to end the 2011 season with their three year average of statistics.  Then we will take a look at they still have in the tank as compared against a favorable projection based on their first month, their previous high watermark season and some personal projection from yours truly.

PITCHERS


Johnson’s three year has injury time missed built into it since he made just 14 starts in 2008 and 28 a year ago.  It skews things a bit, but it shouldn’t be glossed over since he is a legitimate injury risk (what pitcher isn’t?).  Coming into the season there were some injury grumblings about him similar to those of Adam Wainwright.

So far he has not only avoided them entirely, but put together a six start stretch that has just been downright absurd in terms of quality.  If he were to have a second straight career year, there would essentially be a 2010 Clay Buchholz with more strikeouts left in the tank.  Buchholz threw 174 innings with a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP last year.  So call it a Buchholz-plus.

However if he were to succumb to any injury and just meet his three year average, which is a hell of an average for the rate stats mind you, he would be pretty “meh” from here on out.  Think 2010 Hisanori Takahashi.  The Mets swingman threw 122 innings with a 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP along with 114 strikeouts.

That’s obviously a pessimistic look as you never really want to project injury for someone, but you need to build that into your cost when trading for Johnson.  If your trade partner is unwilling to build in some sort of discount for very real injury risk associated with Johnson then you might be better off looking elsewhere.

Weaver has been a workhorse the last three years getting better year over year increasing his starts and innings while also improving most of his other numbers in the process, too.  As such, many may see this surge as a continuation of what he has been doing the last several years.

Of course it doesn’t always work that way.  In fact, it is much smarter to predict a regression to the mean than it is continued excellence.  If he put up a line equal to his three year average, it would still be one of the best seasons of his career, yet owners getting him now would be saddled with some pretty pedestrian numbers.  Imagine something similar to 2010 Kevin Slowey.

I love Slowey, but the price you would have to pay to get a Slowey clone from here on out what would be pretty outrageous.  I actually don’t see Weaver dropping that much over the remainder of the season, but given how often we see players regress to their average, it certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

I actually see something of a Ubaldian season for Weaver which is essentially what the dream projection give him.  He “struggled” in his start on Monday (notching the baseline of a quality start, 6 IP/3 ER), but when that is your worst start of the year so far, you’re doing just fine.

Keep in mind that if Weaver “only” matches his line from last year (except for wins… if he only managed 13 after getting six in the first month, that’d be really unfortunate), you are due for 173 innings of 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 178 strikeouts.  A very strong line to be sure, but perhaps not as impactful as you might be hoping given the price paid.  I am not saying don’t trade for him, I actually think he is pretty safe as pitchers go, but don’t let your trade partner gouge you, either.

In an AL-Only league I play in, I saw him get traded for Nelson Cruz which I thought was quite fair on both sides.  In fact, looking at his CBS page, I see he was part of another trade in some other league with Cruz who was paired with Brian Roberts while Yadier Molina was sent back with Weaver.

Haren is known for slow second halves waiting until after the All-Star Break to regress to his mean.  After several years of this trend, he reversed it last year.  Saddled with gobs of bad luck in Arizona throughout the first half, he was traded to the Angels just before the trade deadline and pitched masterfully down the stretch posting a 2.87 ERA in 94 innings.

He has maintained that high level of pitching into this year, but still some are reticent because of his history of slowing down as the season wears on.  Personally, I would leverage that in my favor to drive the price down a bit.

Though his ERA has regressed in the second half many times throughout his career, he isn’t a completely useless shlub.  His strong strikeout rates hold up well regardless of time period and his WHIP often stays well above average, too.  Plus, there are still two months before the second half of the season.  If you trade for Haren now, you could still get plenty of goodness and then flip him yourself if you truly are afraid of the second half.

Haren is an especially great target for teams struggling in WHIP.  While it is still technically early, we are getting close to the point where massive ERA and WHIP deficits can’t be easily fixed with a move or two.  Innings are piling up and if you’re too far away from the rest of the pack, you will need two or three star arms to fix it and trading for that would likely decimate you elsewhere rendering the moves useless.


How do you make a dream projection for this guy?  Use 1968 Bob Gibson as a reference point?  Without getting too ridiculous, I just decided to stick with what he has done so far this year and project it for the entire season.  That would still qualify as a career year, but barely after his amazing 2010.

Even his three year average is absurd and if that’s “all” did in 2011, he would still almost certainly be the best pitcher in baseball from here on out.  The simple fact is you’re going to have to pay to get him and if you can somehow avoid paying the price of your first round pick or top dollar offensive asset, then do the trade.

Of course, I doubt that will happen.  Perusing the CBS trades shows us that he has been dealt for Joey Votto, Ryan Braun and Hanley Ramirez most recently.  If your pitching needs help and he is who you seek, you better hope your offense can sustain respectability without its best player or else there is no point doing the trade.  That is to say if you’re going to lose as many points taking player X out of your offense as you’d get by adding Halladay to your pitching, then look elsewhere to fix your pitching woes.

By the way, if he ended this season with his three year average, he would essentially be 2010 David Price with 10 fewer innings from here on out.  We are a month into the season and what he has left is the equivalent of one of the best pitchers in baseball from last year.


Last but not at all the least is Lester.  A popular pick for the American League Cy Young, including mine, he is showing why so many thought he could bring home the hardware this year.  Outside of Halladay, he has the least downside in his profile should he “only” reach his three year average by season’s end.  Part of that is because his ERA and WHIP aren’t as good as the others right now, but the other part is because his three year average is very strong.

He has become one of the most consistent aces in the game and as a 27-year old entering his physical prime, many believed he would take a significant step forward to make a bid for American League’s best pitcher.  If he were to reach that lofty goal, he would probably be near or better than the dream projection.

That would make him, in my estimation, the best of this group to trade for considering he likely won’t cost as much as Halladay does and his upside as compared to what he has already done is the best of the bunch, too.

He has been involved in some insane trades at CBS in that if you were able to get similar value, you should jump at the chance.  Twice today he was dealt straight up for Tim Hudson.  Other straight up deals include ones for: Alex Gordon (!!!), Jose Reyes, Ryan Howard and Justin Verlander.

I won’t share every single one, but just looking at the first page of these trades, they all seem to favor the team getting Lester except for the one where Lester and Howard Kendrick cost the owner Miguel Cabrera and Jake Arrieta.  That is pretty even, though I generally prefer to get the superstar hitter in trades.  Of course if you need pitching, that isn’t always possible.

—

I hope this exercise helps you in your trade endeavors as you try to assess exactly what you are getting back in your mega-deal.  Next, I will look at some hitters who are on fire and perform the same exercise.

You may also be interested in reading the piece by Daniel Moroz over at Beyond the Boxscore that looks at how April’s top pitchers from previous years finish the season.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 05.1.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 5 Monday-Friday

This week was a process for the Spot Starter picks.  It started off poorly as posterboy Brandon McCarthy, who I recommended keeper permanently last week, was torched by the Angels allowing seven runs on 14 (!) hits in just five and a third innings.  Meanwhile, my second pick on Tuesday (skipped Monday due to a lack of viable options) was his opponent, Tyler Chatwood, who I went with over Marco Estrada and Gavin Floyd in order to get the most favorable matchup.

He was passable and earned a win, but the Floyd was excellent against the Yankees (W, 8 IP, 2 ER, 10 K, 5 BR) and Estrada looked sharp against the Reds (7 IP, 2 ER, 5 K, 5 BR).  But I stand behind choosing Chatwood as those two were playing two of the best offenses in baseball and they happened to escape with some gems.  The favorable play was passing on those two, especially for this strategy.

Then on Wednesday Derek Holland was ripped for five earned runs in the third straight start and all of a sudden I had three recommendations who totaled 15.7 innings allowing 15 runs with just six strikeouts. Of course there was plenty of time left in the week and the remaining seven selections all allowed three or fewer runs while five of them logged six or more innings.

The rally helped lower the season-long ERA while the five wins logged double the season total to 10.

Let’s keep the weekend momentum (1.75 ERA in 25.7 innings with the Saturday & Sunday starters) going into week 5:

MONDAY:

Bartolo Colon (NYY @ DET) – His ownership rates will likely bump up again after free agent pickups are run on Sunday, but as of now he remains available in a lot of leagues across all of the major outlets.  He is striking batters out, he is inducing groundballs and he is going deep into his starts.  There is just nothing within this profile so far to caution against buying into it.  His resurgence is the epitome of Ron Shandler’s axiom: “Once a player displays a skill, he owns it.”

Derek Holland (TEX @ OAK) – The string of 5 ER starts has to stop here, right?  Holland is too talented to keep getting pounded for a nickel each game and the A’s in their spacious stadium is a great place to get right.  I will be watching this start to get a better handle on Holland, too.  I haven’t seen him throw since the start in NY where Ron Washington was an idiot.

TUESDAY:

Sam LeCure (CIN v. HOU) – LeCure is a perfect matchup play as he feasts on the weak, but isn’t quite as strong against the stiffer competition.  To wit, he has allowed 2 ER and 1 ER in starts against Houston and at San Diego, respectively, striking out 14 in 11 innings across the two starts.  In his other two starts he allowed five to Arizona (including four HR) and three at Milwaukee in just 4.3 innings.

R.A. Dickey (NYM v. SF) – He hasn’t quite been as strong as he was in 2010, but nobody really expected him to be, either.  He has been useful especially getting through some control issues early in the season.  He is generally strong at home (1.99 ERA at Citi; 3.58 away in ’10) and the Giants aren’t scaring anyone with their lineup as Buster Posey slumps (5 for his last 26) and Pablo Sandoval, their best hitter so far this year, just went on the disabled list for 4-6 weeks with a hand injury.

WEDNESDAY:

Kevin Correia (PIT @ SD) – The Giants look like the ’27 Yankees compared to their divisional foes in San Diego as the Padres needed a 7-run surge today to finally top 80 runs for the season (84-last in the majors).  Meanwhile, Correia has just one implosion this season while allowing two or fewer runs in four of his six starts.  He likely won’t maintain his 2.90 ERA all year, but I doubt the regression begins against his old teammates.

Jake Arrieta (BAL @ KC) – The Royals offense is doing some nice work this year, but so is Arrieta having looked great in five of his six starts (an 8 ER in 3.3 IP shellacking against Texas as the lone blemish) which is masked by a 5.01 ERA.  I like him to tame the Royals a bit and keep his streak going.  He may even sneak a win, too, as his offense gets to face Kyle Davies.

THURSDAY:

Joel Pineiro (LA @ BOS) – After starting the season on the disabled list, many owners cut bait on Pineiro as he just made his season debut this past weekend.  The Red Sox are still trying to find their footing so I like Pineiro to take advantage and induce plenty of weak contact en route to a solid showing.

Brandon Beachy (ATL v. MIL) – He is this week’s pick to keep as his ownership starting to increase with each passing great start.  I’m not sure what took so long.  Of course, he is still available in quite a few leagues so he makes the list at least once more.  He has a sub-1.00 WHIP and a strikeout per inning pitched, I can’t imagine a format where that isn’t useful.

FRIDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. LAD) – He just keeps performing so he keeps getting recommended.  His ERA looks available after being inflated in back-to-back starts in early April when he gave up 11 in 10 innings to Philly and Colorado.  Since then he has reeled off three straight 2 ER starts allowing just the six runs in 19.3 innings.  The Dodgers are essentially a two-man lineup right now so Niese should be able to continue rolling.

Phil Humber (CHW @ SEA) – Pitcher on a roll + garbage opponent + pitching in garbage opponent’s excellent ballpark = auto-start.  Humber is another guy with only one real significant negative mark on his record (4 ER in 5.3 against Tampa Bay), but he has been sharp otherwise including a gem under the spotlight in Yankee Stadium.  The MAAAriners shouldn’t prove too challenging.

Weekend picks later in the week…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Minor Leagues, Player Focus, Predictions, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 4 Comments »

Saturday: 04.30.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 4 The Weekend

It’s been an interesting week.  A few of the picks were knocked around while others excelled and perhaps excelled enough to keep the weekly totals strong.  We’ll see after the week.  Some things got bumped around this week including Scott Baker getting pushed to start against Kansas City instead of Tampa Bay which was beneficial since he got to avoid the white-hot Ben Zobrist.  Jason Hammel didn’t start yesterday and is instead starting today.  I guess he will count for a Saturday pick.

I’ll give another Saturday pick, but it is academic at this point since games have already started.  I meant to post them yesterday, but I passed out early last night after a week of not getting much sleep.  The last thing I saw for the night was Carlos Santana’s walkoff home run against my Tigers… what an awful way to fall asleep.

Chris Tillman (BAL @ CHW) – The White Sox just aren’t playing up to their ability.  Tillman has had two good and two bad starts so far.  He can feast on lesser teams so I’ll give him a shot against Chicago.

SUNDAY:

Jon Garland (LA v. SD) – Some like him, some don’t, but he performs.  He has been especially reliable in the National League despite an unimpressive strikeout rate almost every year (just once above 4.8 since 2004).  The Padres offense is downright abysmal making him an easy start.  In fact, several lesser starters would be a start against this offense.  It’s just sooo bad.

Bud Norris (HOU v. MIL) – What does this guy need to do to get his ownership rates up?  All he has done is strikeout six or more in each of his five starts and allow just three runs in his last three starts totaling 18 innings.  He has really cut down his walks from 4.5 BB/9 last year down below to 3.0 at 2.9.  He isn’t just picking on trash, either.  His last start came against the St. Louis Cardinals when he allowed 0 ER in six innings.

Look for the week’s results and the week 5 picks on Sunday.

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Sunday: 04.24.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 Results

Just drove back from visiting the family for Easter (5+ hour drive) so I’m a bit wiped out.  Thankfully, I don’t have any plays for Mondays games so I’m holding over the Tuesday-Friday recommendations until Monday.  I need sleep.  I did have time to put together the Week 3 results, though.  Let me start by saying that Fausto Carmona will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever be picked as a spot starter again.  I don’t care if he’s facing the kids of the blind elementary school in your neighborhood, I’d rather recommend Javier Vazquez throwing on 1 day rest in Yankee Stadium against a team of MLB All-Stars.  I crush that guy for the garbage that he is and when I finally buy in just a shred, he goes back to being his Hefty Cinch Sack self.  Unbelievable.

Without him polluting the numbers, the results were still underwhelming as the collective ERA would have been just below 4.00 with a WHIP topping 1.30 and a strikeout rate failing to reach even 6.0 K/9.  With his six runs and 11 baserunners in five innings shellacking, things were much worse as you might have guessed.

A mixed bag for sure as it took until Thursday to even notch a win.  As I doubt anyone actually picks up every single one of these guys, I hope you were lucky enough to get at least a couple of the six worthwhile gems within the bunch.  I know the results won’t always be like Week 2’s 3.08 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but I’m definitely hoping for more good than bad as I’m not just throwing darts here.  Even with the down strikeout rate, at least the group still managed a 2.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Gem of the Week:

Oakland’s Brandon McCarthy is the GotW as he should be picked up permanently in all formats assuming he hasn’t been already.  His first start was the worst of his four and it was hardly awful as he went eight allowing four, but striking out just two.  Since then he has allowed just three runs in 22 innings striking out 18 and walking just a pair.  He’s got the talent, defense, home ballpark and health to finally pay dividends on the early career promise  that earned him the 49th ranking in Baseball America’s Top 100 list back in 2005.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 04.17.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 Monday-Friday

Spotty internet access as I awaited my setup to be transferred from my old apartment made for a spotty and abbreviated version of what I intend to become a weekly staple with the spot starter recommendations.  In a moment, I will unveil the list of week three recommendations as well as how the week two pickups performed, but first a bit more about the goal behind these recommendations.

The idea is that there is enough useful pitching on the waiver wire of a large swath of leagues (generally, 10-14 team mixers) that you can play the matchups with one or two spots in the backend of your rotation and get some very quality work out the spots instead of sticking it out with a run of the mill third or fourth starter.

Cory Schwartz and Mike Siano over MLB.com’s Fantasy 411 popularized the phrase “pitch or ditch” for this strategy.  You will also hear it called streaming or spot starting.  I am not for a second pretending like I created this strategy, I am merely offering my solutions on the best way to maximize it.  Let’s see how last week’s picks worked out:

Not too bad on the whole as only one of the nine gave up more than three runs (Brandon Beachy) and he softened the blow by striking out eight.  Of course he had to make up for Jeff Francis’ lame one strikeout in six and a third innings of work.  If there is one thing that sticks out as less than desirable, it’s the two wins in nine starts, but you can’t chase wins and a lot of these are available because they aren’t on the high profile teams that would generally be more conducive to wins.

Who’s on tap for week 3?

MONDAY:

Chris Tillman (BAL v. MIN) – He has had an uneven start to the season with a dominating six inning no-hit effort against Tampa Bay followed by two poundings at the hands of the Tigers and Yankees.  The best medicine is a shot against the league’s worst offense in the midst of getting used to being without their best player.  They weren’t very good with Joe Mauer and it would be quite a shock if they were without him.

Travis Wood (CIN v. PIT) – Wood’s skills have remained intact from last year which is to say they are pretty good and facing the anemic Pirates should only accentuate them.  The fly in his ointment remains a severe flyball rate in a terrible park for such an affliction.  He was extremely lucky when it came to home runs last year (6.3 HR/FB) and he’s been even luckier this year (4.5%) so while I like him in this favorable matchup, I wouldn’t stick with him beyond that.

TUESDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. HOU) – A 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio powered by nearly eight strikeouts per game coupled with a 51% groundball rate is enough for me to remain optimistic in Niese despite a 6.88 ERA.  He is getting tagged by a 56% LOB% and 14% HR/FB rate so a date with the lowly Astros is welcomed by Niese and owners of his services.  Depending on who you cut for him, this may be someone to hang onto going forward.

Phil Coke (DET @ SEA) – Through two starts totaling 13.7 innings, Coke has allowed just two runs.  The six hits allowed are definitely a plus while the six walks are neither good nor bad.  In his debut start against Kansas City, he struck out seven, but followed that up with just two in seven innings against Oakland.  So we are left wondering what kind of strikeout capability he will offer as a starter.  The Mariners strikeout 2nd-most in the American League, but they are also tied for the most walks in baseball.  It’s a terrible lineup in a favorable park, so Coke should be a nice play here (and in his next start when he draws the Mariners at home).

WEDNESDAY:

Bud Norris (HOU @ NYM) – He worked out well last week so let’s hit the well again.  He has improved start to start and posted strikeout totals of 7-6-7 in the process.  This is a very talented young arm who could become a permanent asset for fantasy owners sooner than later.

Philip Humber (CHW @ TB) – Picking on the Rays again who Humber already thwarted back on April 9th allowing a run in six innings with four strikeouts en route to a win.  This is purely a hot streak/matchup play as I don’t like Humber much going forward.

THURSDAY:

Brandon McCarthy (OAK @ SEA) – To drive home the point about not chasing wins, the A’s will face Felix Hernandez during this start, but I still really like McCarthy.  Like Norris, he has improved start to start (all of which came against teams much better than Seattle) yet his ownership rate remains very low.  He could definitely become a long-term hold going forward so you might want to his secure his services sooner than later if you have the spot available.

Chris Capuano (NYM v. HOU) – He just can’t stay this unlucky, especially against a bad team like the Astros.  He’s getting groundballs and strikeouts while limiting walks, but his BABIP is nearly .400 (.385) and over 20% of his flyballs have left the yard leaving him with an ugly 61% LOB%.  Those numbers begin their correction with this start.

FRIDAY:

Fausto Carmona (CLE @ MIN) – Many of you may know that I’m not a fan of Carmona at all, but he’s done some impressive work in his last two starts (v. BAL, @LA) against better teams than the Twins including 11 strikeouts over 14.7 innings which is high for him.  He’s still inducing a crapton of groundballs, too.  He gets hot in stretches and after a horrific Opening Day starts (10 ER in 3 IP) he’s allowed four runs in 21.7 innings (the other start was against BOS), so ride the wave.

Jo-Jo Reyes (TOR v. TB) – Even with a small sample size, his .438 BABIP is kind of unbelievable.  It has definitely fueled his 6.75 ERA, but I like that he’s still striking out nearly a batter per inning (12 in 13.3 IP) and maintaining a 1:1 groundball/flyball ratio.  I hate to keep picking on Tampa Bay, but until they get Evan Longoria back and/or sort out their lineup woes, it will continue to happen.

I will give out the Saturday and Sunday picks midweek as those are going to be the repeat starters and I’d like to see the first starts of those guys before making another decision on them.   Plus it guards against injury that may occur in those initial starts.

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Friday: 04.15.2011

Trolling the Wire: The Weekend

Wrapping up the week on Spot Starters, here is who I like today and through the weekend:

FRIDAY:

Chris Narveson (MIL v. Washington) – Narveson has been brilliant this year striking out more than a batter per inning and toting a 0.00 ERA through his first two starts.  He can’t really be any better, but I see no reason he can’t continue to excel matching legitimate skills with a favorable matchup in Washington.  With his first two starts, his ownership rate is definitely on the rise, but some leagues still aren’t hot to this hidden gem.

Kyle Lohse (STL v. Los Angeles) – Lohse is well on his way to recapturing the magic of 2008 when he went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 200 innings having netted a 3.00 ERA over 15 innings in his first two starts amassing 10 strikeouts with just a single walk.  Even more importantly, he has a ridiculously strong 58% groundball rate which could be the driving force to a resurgent season.  Today he draws the lowly Dodgers who you may think are doing well enough because of Matt Kemp’s excellent start and their passable 6-7 record, but even with Kemp they have a paltry .679 team OPS.

SATURDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. Tampa Bay) – He has some interesting numbers in his stat line so far this year.  He has an uncharacteristically high 4.9 BB/9 (well away from his 2.1 career mark), an 82% LOB% which is about 10% above league average and generally helps a guy’s ERA, but not when you have a 3.3 HR/9 rate!!!  That is just absurd, even for Baker who struggles with the long ball.  Exactly 1/3rd of his flyballs are leaving the yard at this point.  I’m willing to bet all three of those numbers will come down and while the LOB% dropping isn’t necessarily helpful, the evening out of the other two will hack several runs off of his 6.55 ERA.  The best remedy for a rough start is drawing the Longoria-less Rays.

Jeff Niemann (TB v. Minnesota) – Like his opponent, Niemann has some odd figures through two starts with a similar 3.1 HR/9 rate matched with an ugly BABIP (.344) and LOB% (55%).  His strikeout-to-walk rate of 1.7 is less than impressive as his strikeout rate of 5.2 sits well below his 6.5 career mark.  An even better remedy than Niemann facing his own team is facing the now Mauer-less Twins.  They weren’t any good with him and without him they can’t possibly be better.  It’s odd to favor both guys in a matchup since at best you can only get one win, but I don’t chase wins.  Plus not everyone plays BOTH guys I recommend, so pick your favorite between (I’d lean Baker) the two and enjoy.

SUNDAY:

Jeff Francis (KC v. Seattle) – With a groundball rate even better than Lohse’s (57%), Francis is off to a great start through three starts in his first tour of the American League.  He doesn’t offer overwhelming strikeout totals as his 5.7 K/9 is about what you should expect across a full season, but he could receive a boost facing the Mariners, who strikeout 3rd-most in the American League.

That’s it for Sunday.  I don’t want to recommend someone I don’t really believe in just to have 2 guys.

I should have the full week 3 spot starters out this weekend.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Tuesday: 04.5.2011

2011 Season Awards

Other Divisions:

Here’s my award balloting for the 2011 season.  There are some chalk picks, but hey, sometimes the chalk wins.  I went three and sometimes four deep to cover a decent swatch of candidates for each.  Limiting to just one is such a crapshoot so I decided to expand it a bit.  Let’s be honest, limiting it to just three or four guys with six months of play where so many different things can happen is also a crapshoot, but it feels less crapshooty when picking a few extras.

American League Awards

MVP:

1st – Alex Rodriguez, 3B, New York Yankees

2nd – Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers

3rd – Nelson Cruz, OF, Texas Rangers

This isn’t borne out of A-Rod’s hot start.  In the bold predictions, I put him down for 52 home runs, but he doesn’t even need to reach that to take home the hardware here.  It could be the second time that a Detroit Tiger has an excellent season, but just loses out a great A-Rod year (Magglio in ’07).  If Cruz finally stays healthy, he’s an MVP waiting to happen.

CY YOUNG:

1st – Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

2nd – Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners

3rd – Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels

I’ll join the rest of the *world* with Lester, but in fairness I did pick him back in mid-February in Starting Pitcher Guide.  I didn’t realize at the time that I was making such an obvious pick, but apparently I was.  But just because it’s a crowded bandwagon doesn’t mean I’m going to hop off.  Hernandez is still the best in the league, but I’m not sure he can win it again with low-to-mid teens wins and I’m not sure Seattle can give him more than that.  I have LA contending all year and it’s due in large part to the fact that they have two aces, one of which is Haren.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

1st – Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians

2nd – Zach Britton, SP, Baltimore Orioles

3rd – Michael Pineda, SP, Seattle Mariners

4th – Jordan Walden, RP, Los Angeles Angels

If Jack Hannahan keeps hitting like a man possessed, I guess Chis won’t get his shot, but I’m quite confident that Hannahan will soon start hitting like Jack Hannahan.  I cheated a bit and picked four because I couldn’t leave one of Britton or Pineda off.  I think Britton is the more polished product right now, but he plays in a hitter’s park in one of the hardest divisions in all of baseball, but Pineda has an incredible park and defense supporting him and could have outstanding strikeout numbers, too.  So I went with both.  Walden could take the job from Fernando Rodney by May 1st and we’ve seen how the electorate reacts to rookie AL West closers.

National League Awards

MVP:

1st – Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals

2nd – Matt Kemp, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

3rd – Jay Bruce, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Hey, he’s not the incumbent for once.  I know it’s boring to pick to Pujols, but he is the best player in baseball and if that team contends into the dog days, you’d better believe he will win it.  And I am trying to be right, too, so I can’t just pick outlandish guys for fun.  Kemp and Bruce are two of my improvement picks for ’11 and given their All-Star level now, a step up would make them MVP-caliber.

CY YOUNG:

1st – Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

2nd – Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

3rd – Tommy Hanson, Atlanta Braves

Votes don’t seem to like repeat winners whether they deserve it not (which is absolutely ridiculous to me), but I’m preying on that stupidity with three newcomers to voting in lieu of really boring you with Pujols and Halladay picks.  I added a fourth to make sure Halladay gets his due, but I think voters will look for a reason not to give it to him and since I have Hamels exploding this year, a teammate outshining Halladay would be a story the voters would glom onto.  Kershaw can be a runaway winner if he matches his already displayed skill with more seven and eight inning outings.

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

1st – Mike Minor, SP, Atlanta Braves

2nd – Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants

3rd – Brandon Beachy, SP, Atlanta Braves

4th – Aroldis Chapman, RP, Cincinnati Reds

With just 41 innings last year, I’m almost certain that Minor retains rookie eligibility this year.  I like him a lot this year even though he lost the 5th spot to Beachy initially.  It wasn’t through any lack of performance by him, they were both off the charts great in spring.  They will battle each other for the award all summer in Atlanta.  I’d have Belt as a candidate even if he didn’t make the roster out of spring, but the fact that he has only adds to his candidacy.  Chapman is a darkhorse who will rise up the list if, and only if, he takes the closer’s role in Cincy.  I can’t imagine a middle reliever winning the award with so many other viable candidates in more impactful roles.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Bold Predictions, Predictions, Season Preview | 2 Comments »

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