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Friday: 05.20.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 7 The Weekend

With interleague play firing up tonight, it throws an interesting wrench into matchup plays since the rules are going to be different for one team in each game.  That said, I would hope an American League pitcher isn’t completely thrown off of his game just because he has to bat a couple times and the DH shouldn’t obliterate a National League pitcher in a one game sample if he’s anywhere close to a worthwhile arm.

Let’s take a look at the weekend picks.

FRIDAY:

Erik Bedard (SEA @ SD) – It might be too late for you to pick him up, but I want to add him with Brad Penny and Ryan Vogelsong to the Friday picks.  I’m not sure why he wasn’t originally included.  He’s pitching well and gets a start in San Diego, it doesn’t add up much better than that.

SATURDAY:

Clayton Richard (SD v. SEA) – Can’t chase a win here even against the Mariners as the Padres have to face Michael Pineda so run scoring will be even tougher than usual for the Padres.  Richard is an ultimate matchup play to be used exclusively at home almost regardless of opponent.  He has excelled against Cincinnati and Philadelphia at home while getting a reprieve for a terrible outing against Pittsburgh where he allowed seven but just one earned.  He has a 1.71 ERA at home; 7.27 on the road.

Joel Pineiro (LAA v. ATL) – I will reiterate what I said when I recommended him for Monday: I wouldn’t mess with him too often in innings cap leagues because of his meager strikeout rate, but he is an overlooked asset with legitimate value in the right league type.  He turned in a quality outing against the A’s going seven allowing three, but striking out just three.  Atlanta has been good this year on the whole, but they’re toting a .654 OPS on the road (22nd-ranked).

SUNDAY:

Tim Stauffer (SD v. SEA) – Can’t chase a win here even against the Mariners as the Padres get to face Felix Hernandez so run scoring will be MUCH tougher than usual for the Padres.  He was toting a meager 4.5 K/9 in his first four outings, but has struck out 6 or 7 in his last five totaling 33 in 30 innings (9.9 K/9).  Combine that with his improved walk rate of 2.1 BB/9  and now he has a career-best 3.7 K/BB.  He has held most of his groundball gains from last year (55%) with a 52% rate which all adds up to a great skill set.  He could reasonably shave a sizeable chunk off of his 3.81 ERA going forward.  I would roster him immediately.

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS @ BAL) – His ownership rates are higher than most of the recommendations on Trolling the Wire, but there are still lower than they should be, at least in my opinion (70% or below across all three major outlets).  His strikeout rate in his first five starts was a remarkably disappointing 4.2 K/9, which was worrisome because strikeouts were a significant part of his value coming into the season.  In May he has struck out 21 in 18 innings across three starts bringing his season mark up to 6.6 and rising.  He has a great 2.1 walk rate pushing his strikeout-to-walk rate above 3.0.  He has a mediocre at best 4.13 ERA, in fact it’s below average, but his FIP is 2.67 thanks to a 59% LOB% that is 13% below the average.  With these skills, Zimmermann has a good chance to become an above average pitcher the rest of the way.

Rick Porcello (DET @ PIT) – He was slated for Tuesday, but rained out.  He is going Sunday so I’ll keep him as a recommendation especially since his draw improves getting the Pirates instead of the Blue Jays.  And in case you missed it, here is what I said about in Sunday’s piece: After allowing 10 runs in 10 innings in his first two starts, he has allowed just seven in the next 32 innings across five starts (1.99 ERA) with a passable 5.9 K/9.  More importantly, he has a 3.0 K/BB walking just seven.  His walk and groundball rates have held from last year while he has added more than a full strikeout per game to his rate.  A 3.65 xFIP and 3.76 FIP suggest that his 3.67 ERA is completely legitimate.  Buy with confidence.

Results for Week 7 and Week 8’s Monday-Friday picks coming up Sunday evening.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 05.15.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 7 Monday-Friday

The week started off brilliantly with a pair of shutout performances from Travis Wood and Edwin Jackson.  In fact through Tuesday, which included three starters for the first time on any given day, the five starters posted a 2.09 ERA across 34 innings.  Then the week kind of came unhinged.  Chris Narveson and Ryan Dempster delivered strong starts, but four flameouts and three rainouts derailed what was lining up to be a great week.

I told y’all I felt dirty recommending a no strikeout guy like Kevin Correia.  I should’ve just stuck to the original plan with Jake Arrieta.  The rainouts have been the real killers, giving those of us employing this strategy less margin for error and fewer chances for a gem.

The results to date have been pretty strong, though and the three hold listers who have emerged are proving to be legitimate assets worth relying on regardless of matchup and venue.  No one joining the list this week, but let’s look at this week’s options for spot starts.

MONDAY:

Edwin Jackson (CHW v. TEX) – I still believe.  Looking through his eight start gamelog, he really has just the two poor starts at Detroit and New York.  The Rangers are a challenge, but I don’t think Jackson’s is a flimsy skill set that needs to be protected against anything but the weakest of opponents.  He still has high strikeout potential meanwhile his control has held strong at 3.4 BB/9.

Joel Pineiro (LAA @ OAK) – The ERA isn’t going to hold at 1.33, but his pinpoint control, hyper-groundball profile can deliver a 3.50-3.75 ERA, seven innings at a time.  I wouldn’t mess with him too often in innings cap leagues because of his meager strikeout rate, but he is an overlooked asset with legitimate value in the right league type.

TUESDAY:

Rick Porcello (DET v. TOR) – He’d better just throw four wide to Jose Bautista and move on.  After allowing 10 runs in 10 innings in his first two starts, he has allowed just seven in the next 32 innings across five starts (1.99 ERA) with a passable 5.9 K/9.  More importantly, he has a 3.0 K/BB walking just seven.  His walk and groundball rates have held from last year while he has added more than a full strikeout per game to his rate.  A 3.65 xFIP and 3.76 FIP suggest that his 3.67 ERA is completely legitimate.  Buy with confidence.

Jordan Zimmermann (WAS v. PIT) – His ownership rates are a lot lower than I expected, including just 70% at CBS, so he gets a nod this week, though I suspect his 11 K outing will pump his rates back up.  I recommend picking up and holding him where available as his strikeout ability is starting to shine through after a bit of a lull to start the season.  He is still coming off of a major injury so I would expect him to continue getting better as the season wears on.  He has a 3.44 ERA in 18 innings over three starts in May with 21 strikeouts and six walks.  Buy NOW!

WEDNESDAY:

Jason Vargas (SEA v. MIN) – Vargas has a somewhat Porcellian profile with his moderate strikeout rate and big time control, but he lags behind a bit in groundball rate (43% to Porcello’s 49%).  Vargas has a very favorable home park and strong defense supporting him, too.  Throw in a matchup against the only offense as bad as or perhaps worse than Seattle’s and it is a nice opportunity to start him.

Bartolo Colon (NYY @ BAL) – He is a borderline Hold List candidate with an excellent 8.5 strikeout rate and even more appealing 4.1 K/BB rate, but the 1.5 HR/9 is a bit worrisome.  His LOB% rate at 77% is bit higher than average (72%) and if that comes down it could be in the form of three-run homers.  That said, I am happy to trust him start to start right as the 38-year old looks like a completely new man (or man and a half… didn’t think I’d get a fat joke in, didjya?).

THURSDAY:

Tyson Ross (OAK v. MIN) – After a shaky first start (3 ER in 4.3 IP), he really settled in with a 1.69 ERA in the four starts since.  Oddly enough the first start was against the easiest competition (Mariners) while the four since have come against a range of competition, all reasonably viable (Angels, Indians, Royals and White Sox).  The performance has been supported by a 3.6 K/BB which has included a usable 6.0 K/9.

Chris Narveson (MIL @ SD) – Narveson has served us well multiple times this year and now he gets a trip to San Diego.  Sign me up.

FRIDAY:

Brad Penny (DET @ PIT) – Penny has 1 BB in last 20 IP and he’s carrying a career high 54% GB thus far.  He’s another super-low strikeout guy (and he’s facing the one I regretted trusting last time in Correia), but the difference is that I have seen every single one of Penny’s starts and I had only seen Correia throw once this year.  All that really means is I can more confidently back him as I have seen why he is succeeding in spite of the strikeouts.  It still isn’t a profile I love by any stretch, but he is getting the job done despite the lack of whiffs.  I wouldn’t use Penny, even for a spot start, in an innings cap or K/9 league, but he is worth trotting out against a weak opponent everywhere else.

Ryan Vogelsong (SF v. OAK) – The guy hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2006 before this year yet he is toting a 2.36 ERA 27 innings into his comeback.  I guess it’s more of a “come” since he isn’t really coming back to anything having never really enjoyed much success in the early 2000s.  It’s a small sample, but the skills profile (8.1 K/9, 3.0 K/BB) definitely supports his early success.  He won’t maintain his 83% LOB% or .240 BABIP, but that just means he won’t be a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher.  It doesn’t mean he can’t be a sub-4.00 pitcher.

Weekend picks later this week…

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Friday: 05.13.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 6 The Weekend

Is it just me or does it feel like there is a significant (5+ innings) no-hit bid nightly lately?  Maybe I can pluck some of those for Trolling the Wire and then if one of them happens to go the distance without allowing a hit then maybe we’d have a trade asset on our hands.  It would probably have to be someone on the cusp of the hold list.

Heck, Francisco Liriano is a “name” guy and I was no more interested in him after his no-no than before.  I offered advice to several tweeters and emailers not to take deals for Liriano post no-no.  The Tuesday evening before he was set to pitch against my Tigers, I told my softball team in no uncertain words that he sucks.

“Don’t let a no-hitter fool you into believing he’s good,” I told them, “it takes more luck than skill to complete the feat especially against a lineup running as ineptly as the White Sox have been this year.”  Liriano made me look smart by tanking and failing to make it through four innings.  It doesn’t just go for Liriano, though.

If you didn’t believe in a pitcher’s skill and then he goes out and throws a no-hitter, nothing in his skill has really changed so don’t let a statistically oddity fool you.  You should never really let any one game influence you too much one way or another, but sometimes the with all the hoopla that goes into a no-hitter, it is easy to fall victim.  Same thing goes for cycles.  When you really think about, cycles are a neat little thing, but there is nothing inherently great about them.

Let’s find our no-hit pitchers for the weekend:

SATURDAY:

Alex White (CLE v. SEA) – The rookie righty has captured some of Cleveland’s early season magic for himself with two solid starts to kick off his career.  With 10 strikeouts in 12 innings and a 53% groundball rate, he is building a profile to believe in going forward.  Make no mistake, though, this pick has a lot to do with his opponent.  The Mariners have taken their .656 April OPS and made it worse posting a vomit-inducing, league-worst .549 mark in May thus far.  White’s 95% LOB% won’t last, but Seattle might not get anybody on to even test the fluky rate.

Chris Narveson (MIL v. PIT) – Anyone perusing their league’s wavier wire might be wont to skip over Narveson as soon as they see the 4.38 ERA.  In this pitching environment we’re dealing with right now, an owner may see him as run-of-the-mill junk.  A deeper look at his gamelog shows that the ERA is pumped by one bad start.  His April 25th outing where he allowed seven run in 2.3 innings or 37% of his earned runs.  His ERA in the other six starts is 2.94.  You can’t pick and choose which stats you want when playing fantasy baseball, but it does give a clearer picture of the pitcher to look game-by-game.  Against a weak opponent, I’m very interested in a guy who is striking out nearly a batter an inning (8.5 K/9) and walking just three per game.

SUNDAY:

Kevin Correia (PIT @ MIL) – For as poor as Seattle is running, Milwaukee isn’t far behind with a team .566 OPS in May giving Correia a chance to keep his impressive, yet improbable, run going.  I feel dirty  just recommending someone with a sub-4.0 K/9, but he’s walking fewer than two per game and his groundball rate is over 50% on the year so there are some worthwhile skills within the profile.  The Brewers have the third most strikeouts in the NL in May so maybe Correia can up his rate past four.

A lot of big arms are going on Sunday and the rest are unappealing so I’ll stick with the one pick.

Results for Week 6 and Week 7’s Monday-Friday picks coming up Sunday evening.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

Thursday: 05.5.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 5 The Weekend

OK, I am going to stop recommending Sam LeCure because he never pitches when I put him on the Trolling the Wire list.  Those who have pitched are doing pretty well as a whole so far this week so hopefully I can keep the momentum rolling with some strong weekend picks.

By the way, I am adding Bud Norris to “Hold” list with Brandon McCarthy.  I think both are worth keeping on your roster permanently pretty much regardless of league format.  He is piling up strikeouts (10.9 K/9) and walking 1.5 fewer batters than last year (3.0 BB/9 in 36 innings).  He will make his final appearance on TtW this weekend*.

(*unless he falls off the Hold List at some point in the season.  That would require a series of poor starts, but we’ll cover falling off the Hold List at a later time if McCarthy, Norris or any other participants fall off.)

SATURDAY:

Norris (HOU @ PIT) – He’s cutting up much better talent so of course I like him against the Pirates and their 25th-ranked offense according to runs scored.  Maybe the removal of Brandon Lyon as closer will increase Norris’s chance at a win, too.  In the interest of full disclosure, I have not checked to see if Lyon has blown any Norris starts.

Tom Gorzelanny (WAS @ FLO) – Off to a strong start this year, Gorzelanny seems to have refined his approach a bit resulting in some strong numbers.  In his first start he allowed five earned runs in five and a third while striking out eight.  He hasn’t approached that strikeout mark again topping out at four, but hasn’t allowed more than two in any of the four starts.  He has been great in his two starts against Florida for his career, too, setting up a nice matchup for him to continue his strong start.

SUNDAY:

James McDonald (PIT v. HOU) – This was a guy I loved coming into the season and he got off to a pretty slow start last just 4.7 innings in his first start then allowing 5, 6 and 8 earned runs in his next three.  He has put together a pair of strong six inning starts during his last two outings allowing just two runs, striking out eight and winning both decisions.  Despite their overall ineptitude, Houston is 10th in runs, but that offense doesn’t really strike fear in anyone.  Brett Wallace is the only one with a better than .900 OPS while Hunter Pence is the only other one above .800 among full-time players (Jason Bourgeois has a .929 in 46 AB).

Erik Bedard (SEA v. CHW) – Let’s pick on the White Sox while they are down.  I think by season’s end they will be performing way better, but right now they are horrible with a .670 OPS that ranks 23rd in baseball.  Plus it’s at home which only helps pitchers.  Bedard is still getting on his feet after not pitching for all of 2010.  I think that is an underrated factor that many don’t account for when analyzing him.  It was a bit unreasonable to expect an automatic return to what we are used to out of him, but now we can see him rounding into form with a pair of strong starts against Detroit and Texas.

Results for Week 5 and the weekday picks for Week 6 coming on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Saturday: 04.30.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 4 The Weekend

It’s been an interesting week.  A few of the picks were knocked around while others excelled and perhaps excelled enough to keep the weekly totals strong.  We’ll see after the week.  Some things got bumped around this week including Scott Baker getting pushed to start against Kansas City instead of Tampa Bay which was beneficial since he got to avoid the white-hot Ben Zobrist.  Jason Hammel didn’t start yesterday and is instead starting today.  I guess he will count for a Saturday pick.

I’ll give another Saturday pick, but it is academic at this point since games have already started.  I meant to post them yesterday, but I passed out early last night after a week of not getting much sleep.  The last thing I saw for the night was Carlos Santana’s walkoff home run against my Tigers… what an awful way to fall asleep.

Chris Tillman (BAL @ CHW) – The White Sox just aren’t playing up to their ability.  Tillman has had two good and two bad starts so far.  He can feast on lesser teams so I’ll give him a shot against Chicago.

SUNDAY:

Jon Garland (LA v. SD) – Some like him, some don’t, but he performs.  He has been especially reliable in the National League despite an unimpressive strikeout rate almost every year (just once above 4.8 since 2004).  The Padres offense is downright abysmal making him an easy start.  In fact, several lesser starters would be a start against this offense.  It’s just sooo bad.

Bud Norris (HOU v. MIL) – What does this guy need to do to get his ownership rates up?  All he has done is strikeout six or more in each of his five starts and allow just three runs in his last three starts totaling 18 innings.  He has really cut down his walks from 4.5 BB/9 last year down below to 3.0 at 2.9.  He isn’t just picking on trash, either.  His last start came against the St. Louis Cardinals when he allowed 0 ER in six innings.

Look for the week’s results and the week 5 picks on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

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Monday: 04.25.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 4 Monday-Friday

As we inch near putting our first month of the season into the books, some of the shinier waiver wire gems will start to get picked up permanently, but in the league sizes where this strategy works best, there will always be someone out there worth playing.

In the week 3 results post, I recommended rostering Brandon McCarthy full-time (which is of course dependent on who you would have to cut).  Some other previous spot starter recommendations that are likely worth holding onto in most formats include Brandon Beachy and Scott Baker.  That said, they still have crazy low ownership percentages at the major outlets and as such, they will still be included in these columns when appplicable.

While all three may be in owned your league, there are plenty of leagues where all three are available.  That is why I try to include a pair of arms on a given day whenever possible.  I won’t force it by picking a complete shlub I don’t believe in, but on most 15 game days there are a pair of worthwhile pickups.

Let’s see what week 4 is offering us.

TUESDAY:

McCarthy (OAK @ LA) – Little mystery here as I said I was going to keep recommending him until he isn’t so widely available.  He wasn’t great in his first start at Toronto where he allowed four in eight innings striking out just two, but his three starts since have gotten better and better with rising game scores of 57, 68 and 75.

Tyler Chatwood (LA v. OAK) – Picking on the 24th-ranked offense in baseball in terms of runs scored and team OPS more so than I am endorsing Chatwood.  There are more skilled options out there (Gavin Floyd & Marco Estrada), but they are facing two of baseball’s best offenses in the Yankees and Reds, respectively.

WEDNESDAY:

Derek Holland (TEX v. TOR) – A bad inning in each of his last two starts has inflated Holland’s ERA and made him look worse than he has pitched.  Last time out against Kansas City was his own fault, but before that it was his idiot manager leaving him out there way too long.  Ron Washington really is the dumbest manager in baseball.  Make no mistake that they made the World Series in spite of him, not because of him.  He should have never sent Holland out in the 8th in New York on that Saturday start.  Completely idiotic.  Sorry, kind of got off on a tangent there… I’m sure everyone realizes Washington is a terrible tactical manager.  Holland is well on his way to putting together a very strong season.  Again, it really depends what the construction of your team is and how you built your staff at the draft, but there are likely a lot of scenarios where Holland is worth keeping permanently.

Bartolo Colon (NYY v. CHW) – This isn’t just a case of picking on the White Sox, who are struggling mightily at the dish, but Colon is actually throwing the ball really well so far.  His skills support the 3.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, so take a shot on Big Fat Bartolo Colon (nicknamed by ESPN’s Matthew Berry) at home.

THURSDAY:

Baker (MIN v. TB) – His lack of ownership is actually pretty astounding to me.  If you don’t want to buy in on Beachy because he is a rookie or McCarthy because he has been so injury-hampered in his career, I get it, but what is everyone waiting for with Baker?

FRIDAY:

Daisuke Matsuzaka (BOS v. SEA) – Even if you don’t believe in what he has done the last two outings, it is hard not to think he can keep it up for at least one more start when he gets a chance to face the Mariners.

Jason Hammel (COL v. PIT) – Hammel is improving start-to-start and now draws the Pirates, who have underwhelmed offensively to say the least.  Hammel’s strikeout rate hasn’t been great at 5.3 K/9 on the season, but with nine in his last two starts (spanning 12.7 innings), he is starting to miss more bats. Pittsburgh’s 177 strikeouts, 3rd-highest in baseball, should only accelerate Hammel’s improvement.

Weekend picks will be out later this week.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | 4 Comments »

Sunday: 04.24.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 Results

Just drove back from visiting the family for Easter (5+ hour drive) so I’m a bit wiped out.  Thankfully, I don’t have any plays for Mondays games so I’m holding over the Tuesday-Friday recommendations until Monday.  I need sleep.  I did have time to put together the Week 3 results, though.  Let me start by saying that Fausto Carmona will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever be picked as a spot starter again.  I don’t care if he’s facing the kids of the blind elementary school in your neighborhood, I’d rather recommend Javier Vazquez throwing on 1 day rest in Yankee Stadium against a team of MLB All-Stars.  I crush that guy for the garbage that he is and when I finally buy in just a shred, he goes back to being his Hefty Cinch Sack self.  Unbelievable.

Without him polluting the numbers, the results were still underwhelming as the collective ERA would have been just below 4.00 with a WHIP topping 1.30 and a strikeout rate failing to reach even 6.0 K/9.  With his six runs and 11 baserunners in five innings shellacking, things were much worse as you might have guessed.

A mixed bag for sure as it took until Thursday to even notch a win.  As I doubt anyone actually picks up every single one of these guys, I hope you were lucky enough to get at least a couple of the six worthwhile gems within the bunch.  I know the results won’t always be like Week 2’s 3.08 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, but I’m definitely hoping for more good than bad as I’m not just throwing darts here.  Even with the down strikeout rate, at least the group still managed a 2.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Gem of the Week:

Oakland’s Brandon McCarthy is the GotW as he should be picked up permanently in all formats assuming he hasn’t been already.  His first start was the worst of his four and it was hardly awful as he went eight allowing four, but striking out just two.  Since then he has allowed just three runs in 22 innings striking out 18 and walking just a pair.  He’s got the talent, defense, home ballpark and health to finally pay dividends on the early career promise  that earned him the 49th ranking in Baseball America’s Top 100 list back in 2005.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Thursday: 04.21.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 The Weekend

The picks recommended are doing pretty well so far this week off the top of my head, especially tonight as Brandon McCarthy and Chris Capuano did some great work.  Here are the weekend picks:

SATURDAY:

Brandon Morrow (TOR  v. TB) – This isn’t one of the official picks because it will be the rare league that he is available on the wire, but just in case he is, I strongly recommend picking him up regardless of format.  Well, except NL-Only, I guess.

Dillon Gee (NYM v. ARI) – He looked pretty good against Atlanta in his season debut and he draws the D’Backs at home this weekend.  I don’t think he will overwhelm, but another good start is definitely a strong possibility.  His peripherals were pretty good in 161 innings at AAA-Buffalo last year, but gopheritis (1.3 HR/9) kept his ERA near 5.00.  He registered more than a strikeout per inning with fewer than 2.5 walks per game.  Very intriguing profile.

Carlos Carrasco (CLE @ MIN) – His Opening Day thrashing is what has his ERA still pushing near 5.00 (7 ER in 6.7 IP), but since then he has three straight quality starts totaling 19.3 innings of 3.26 ERA work with 15 strikeouts.  He’s a guy I liked a lot before the season started and nothing has dissuaded me through four starts.

SUNDAY:

Randy Wolf (MIL v. HOU) – I understand that the standard league at most of the big outlets is pretty shallow, but what does a guy have to do to get some love?  OK, I get it if you weren’t diving in headfirst after a 10-strikeout performance against the Pirates, but he followed it up with six shutout innings and five more strikeouts against Philadelphia.  He’s gone 6+ in three of his four starts and registered five Ks in his three starts apart from the huge 10-strikeout game.  I’m definitely betting on him to stay hot against Houston.

Sam LeCure (CIN @ STL) – I think his start to the season has gone relatively unnoticed as he’s available in a ton of leagues.  He started with back-to-back good starts against Houston and in San Diego so competition has fueled him a bit and Arizona definitely roughed him up at home with four bombs (5 ER in 5.3 IP), but I like the 4.3 K/BB rate powered by nearly a strikeout per inning (17 in 17.1 IP).  The Cardinals will be a tough test, but he’s in St. Louis as opposed to his homer-friendly home ballpark so I like the gamble.

Look for the week’s results and the week 4 picks on Sunday.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | Leave a Comment »

Sunday: 04.17.2011

Trolling the Wire: Week 3 Monday-Friday

Spotty internet access as I awaited my setup to be transferred from my old apartment made for a spotty and abbreviated version of what I intend to become a weekly staple with the spot starter recommendations.  In a moment, I will unveil the list of week three recommendations as well as how the week two pickups performed, but first a bit more about the goal behind these recommendations.

The idea is that there is enough useful pitching on the waiver wire of a large swath of leagues (generally, 10-14 team mixers) that you can play the matchups with one or two spots in the backend of your rotation and get some very quality work out the spots instead of sticking it out with a run of the mill third or fourth starter.

Cory Schwartz and Mike Siano over MLB.com’s Fantasy 411 popularized the phrase “pitch or ditch” for this strategy.  You will also hear it called streaming or spot starting.  I am not for a second pretending like I created this strategy, I am merely offering my solutions on the best way to maximize it.  Let’s see how last week’s picks worked out:

Not too bad on the whole as only one of the nine gave up more than three runs (Brandon Beachy) and he softened the blow by striking out eight.  Of course he had to make up for Jeff Francis’ lame one strikeout in six and a third innings of work.  If there is one thing that sticks out as less than desirable, it’s the two wins in nine starts, but you can’t chase wins and a lot of these are available because they aren’t on the high profile teams that would generally be more conducive to wins.

Who’s on tap for week 3?

MONDAY:

Chris Tillman (BAL v. MIN) – He has had an uneven start to the season with a dominating six inning no-hit effort against Tampa Bay followed by two poundings at the hands of the Tigers and Yankees.  The best medicine is a shot against the league’s worst offense in the midst of getting used to being without their best player.  They weren’t very good with Joe Mauer and it would be quite a shock if they were without him.

Travis Wood (CIN v. PIT) – Wood’s skills have remained intact from last year which is to say they are pretty good and facing the anemic Pirates should only accentuate them.  The fly in his ointment remains a severe flyball rate in a terrible park for such an affliction.  He was extremely lucky when it came to home runs last year (6.3 HR/FB) and he’s been even luckier this year (4.5%) so while I like him in this favorable matchup, I wouldn’t stick with him beyond that.

TUESDAY:

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. HOU) – A 3.0 strikeout-to-walk ratio powered by nearly eight strikeouts per game coupled with a 51% groundball rate is enough for me to remain optimistic in Niese despite a 6.88 ERA.  He is getting tagged by a 56% LOB% and 14% HR/FB rate so a date with the lowly Astros is welcomed by Niese and owners of his services.  Depending on who you cut for him, this may be someone to hang onto going forward.

Phil Coke (DET @ SEA) – Through two starts totaling 13.7 innings, Coke has allowed just two runs.  The six hits allowed are definitely a plus while the six walks are neither good nor bad.  In his debut start against Kansas City, he struck out seven, but followed that up with just two in seven innings against Oakland.  So we are left wondering what kind of strikeout capability he will offer as a starter.  The Mariners strikeout 2nd-most in the American League, but they are also tied for the most walks in baseball.  It’s a terrible lineup in a favorable park, so Coke should be a nice play here (and in his next start when he draws the Mariners at home).

WEDNESDAY:

Bud Norris (HOU @ NYM) – He worked out well last week so let’s hit the well again.  He has improved start to start and posted strikeout totals of 7-6-7 in the process.  This is a very talented young arm who could become a permanent asset for fantasy owners sooner than later.

Philip Humber (CHW @ TB) – Picking on the Rays again who Humber already thwarted back on April 9th allowing a run in six innings with four strikeouts en route to a win.  This is purely a hot streak/matchup play as I don’t like Humber much going forward.

THURSDAY:

Brandon McCarthy (OAK @ SEA) – To drive home the point about not chasing wins, the A’s will face Felix Hernandez during this start, but I still really like McCarthy.  Like Norris, he has improved start to start (all of which came against teams much better than Seattle) yet his ownership rate remains very low.  He could definitely become a long-term hold going forward so you might want to his secure his services sooner than later if you have the spot available.

Chris Capuano (NYM v. HOU) – He just can’t stay this unlucky, especially against a bad team like the Astros.  He’s getting groundballs and strikeouts while limiting walks, but his BABIP is nearly .400 (.385) and over 20% of his flyballs have left the yard leaving him with an ugly 61% LOB%.  Those numbers begin their correction with this start.

FRIDAY:

Fausto Carmona (CLE @ MIN) – Many of you may know that I’m not a fan of Carmona at all, but he’s done some impressive work in his last two starts (v. BAL, @LA) against better teams than the Twins including 11 strikeouts over 14.7 innings which is high for him.  He’s still inducing a crapton of groundballs, too.  He gets hot in stretches and after a horrific Opening Day starts (10 ER in 3 IP) he’s allowed four runs in 21.7 innings (the other start was against BOS), so ride the wave.

Jo-Jo Reyes (TOR v. TB) – Even with a small sample size, his .438 BABIP is kind of unbelievable.  It has definitely fueled his 6.75 ERA, but I like that he’s still striking out nearly a batter per inning (12 in 13.3 IP) and maintaining a 1:1 groundball/flyball ratio.  I hate to keep picking on Tampa Bay, but until they get Evan Longoria back and/or sort out their lineup woes, it will continue to happen.

I will give out the Saturday and Sunday picks midweek as those are going to be the repeat starters and I’d like to see the first starts of those guys before making another decision on them.   Plus it guards against injury that may occur in those initial starts.

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Friday: 04.15.2011

Trolling the Wire: The Weekend

Wrapping up the week on Spot Starters, here is who I like today and through the weekend:

FRIDAY:

Chris Narveson (MIL v. Washington) – Narveson has been brilliant this year striking out more than a batter per inning and toting a 0.00 ERA through his first two starts.  He can’t really be any better, but I see no reason he can’t continue to excel matching legitimate skills with a favorable matchup in Washington.  With his first two starts, his ownership rate is definitely on the rise, but some leagues still aren’t hot to this hidden gem.

Kyle Lohse (STL v. Los Angeles) – Lohse is well on his way to recapturing the magic of 2008 when he went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 200 innings having netted a 3.00 ERA over 15 innings in his first two starts amassing 10 strikeouts with just a single walk.  Even more importantly, he has a ridiculously strong 58% groundball rate which could be the driving force to a resurgent season.  Today he draws the lowly Dodgers who you may think are doing well enough because of Matt Kemp’s excellent start and their passable 6-7 record, but even with Kemp they have a paltry .679 team OPS.

SATURDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. Tampa Bay) – He has some interesting numbers in his stat line so far this year.  He has an uncharacteristically high 4.9 BB/9 (well away from his 2.1 career mark), an 82% LOB% which is about 10% above league average and generally helps a guy’s ERA, but not when you have a 3.3 HR/9 rate!!!  That is just absurd, even for Baker who struggles with the long ball.  Exactly 1/3rd of his flyballs are leaving the yard at this point.  I’m willing to bet all three of those numbers will come down and while the LOB% dropping isn’t necessarily helpful, the evening out of the other two will hack several runs off of his 6.55 ERA.  The best remedy for a rough start is drawing the Longoria-less Rays.

Jeff Niemann (TB v. Minnesota) – Like his opponent, Niemann has some odd figures through two starts with a similar 3.1 HR/9 rate matched with an ugly BABIP (.344) and LOB% (55%).  His strikeout-to-walk rate of 1.7 is less than impressive as his strikeout rate of 5.2 sits well below his 6.5 career mark.  An even better remedy than Niemann facing his own team is facing the now Mauer-less Twins.  They weren’t any good with him and without him they can’t possibly be better.  It’s odd to favor both guys in a matchup since at best you can only get one win, but I don’t chase wins.  Plus not everyone plays BOTH guys I recommend, so pick your favorite between (I’d lean Baker) the two and enjoy.

SUNDAY:

Jeff Francis (KC v. Seattle) – With a groundball rate even better than Lohse’s (57%), Francis is off to a great start through three starts in his first tour of the American League.  He doesn’t offer overwhelming strikeout totals as his 5.7 K/9 is about what you should expect across a full season, but he could receive a boost facing the Mariners, who strikeout 3rd-most in the American League.

That’s it for Sunday.  I don’t want to recommend someone I don’t really believe in just to have 2 guys.

I should have the full week 3 spot starters out this weekend.

Posted in Analysis, Baseball, Fantasy Baseball, Player Focus, Predictions, Spot Starters, Starting Pitchers, Statistical Analysis, Strategy, Trolling the Wire | 1 Comment »

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