Baseball By Paul

Continuing on the Death of Buying “Low” theme from Tuesday, today I will look at a group of pitchers I think you should buy in on, even if you aren’t able to get a discount for their early season struggles.  For those who didn’t read the first piece, what I am looking at is some of the better players (guys owned in just about all formats) who are currently struggling.

When talks of their struggles come up, you will invariably hear the phrase “buy low” thrown out as if you can just bamboozle an owner into selling him for 50 cents on the dollar.  I don’t really believe this is possible, at least not very often.  Sure, there will be the one off trade where you can get someone to send you an established player who is struggling at least than 1:1 value, but by and large owners aren’t going to give up on their top picks without getting fair value in return.

So instead I am recommending guys to buy in on at market value despite their slow starts.  Don’t overreact to six weeks of baseball just because they run counter to years of proven performance or counter to the expectations you had when you paid a significant price for the player back in March.

If I had done this piece right when I was thinking of the idea a few weeks back, my #1 pitching candidate would have been Daniel Hudson.  His ERA was near 6.00 on April 21^st, but he had struck out 26 in 24 innings and his stuff still looked sharp in the two starts of his (out of four) that I watched.

Now he’s completely dialed in and a shining example of what I am talking about.  He has allowed just six runs in his last three starts totaling 20 innings and he’s allowed just a run through six of his current start against San Francisco which is in progress.  He isn’t necessarily a star, but his cost was significant in most leagues so dumping him would have been taking a loss early in the season.

Some guys you can still buy in on and get their goodness going forward include:

Ryan Dempster (1-4, 7.20 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 38 K, 18 BB in 45 IP) – He is being obliterated by home runs (2.0 HR/9) having allowed 10 so far and doing a fair amount of the damage on his ERA which is 2^nd-worst among qualified starters in all of baseball (John Lackey, 8.01).  But looking at the composite profile, his 7.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 aren’t too far removed from his marks over the last three years during which he has become a reliable 200-inning workhorse (8.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9).  Also throw in that Dempster is starting to turn the corner already allowing just three runs in his last 14 innings striking out nine, but walking just two.  Invest with confidence.

Yovani Gallardo (3-2, 5.11 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 36 K, 21 BB in 49 IP) – The strikeout rate is down three per game which can be alarming, but it’s tied heavily to three of his eight starts where he went nine and struck out two, went five and struck out three and then again went five and struck out two.  In the other starts, he has 29 strikeouts in 30 innings.  It is selective to sift through things start by start, but I think it’s warranted here as it shows that there isn’t an epidemic with Gallardo’s strikeouts.  Another reason not to be concerned is that his velocity remains essentially intact.  His fastball is 92.1 against 92.6 last year.  He’s going to be fine.

Brandon Morrow (1-2, 4.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 29 K, 10 BB in 21 IP) – One of my favorites coming into the year, Morrow didn’t even get started until April 23^rd as the Blue Jays tend to play it very cautiously with him when it comes to potential injuries.  He was actually off to a nice start in his first three outings toting a 3.06 ERA and 23 strikeouts in 18 innings, but then he ran into the Tigers who knocked him around for five earned in three and a third innings pushing his ERA to 4.71.  See how one outing can skew things in a small sample.  His strikeout rate has been dynamite which is the main reason you got him.  His high ceiling is merely a benefit to having him on your team.  There is no reason to look at that ERA and think you should be concerned.  If anything, his missing the first couple of weeks could prove beneficial as he now might avoid being shutdown and help you down the stretch.

Ted Lilly (3-3, 4.67 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 29 K, 9 BB in 44 IP) – The strikeouts are down a bit from 7.7 K/9 last year to 5.9, but in the grand scheme that is hardly alarming.  Meanwhile his skills actually portend a stronger ERA than last year with his FIP down from 4.27 last year to 4.14 this year.  He is suffering from the worst BABIP of his career at .326 and while that will come down, it might not plummet all the way to his .273 career mark or to the .259 average from the last three years and that is because he is generating groundballs at a 37% clip, his highest mark since 2006.  If you need a stable, but not game-changing, pitcher with some strikeout upside, target Lilly.

John Danks (0-6, 4.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 40 K, 16 BB in 52 IP) – The 0-6 W-L record makes him look much worse than he has been, but he is someone I would target without fear.  Like Lilly, he is being punished by an abnormal BABIP (.327 as opposed to .267 and .274 marks the last two years), but unlike Lilly there is no discernible skill change to explain the difference meaning there is reason to believe it will regress.  Meanwhile, three year bests in his strikeout and walk rates also suggest positive things for Danks in the near future.  Buy.

Chris Carpenter (1-2, 4.32 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 37 K, 15 BB in 50 IP) – I asked the Cardinals’ MLB.com beat reporter, Matthew Leach (@MatthewHLeach) about Carpenter yesterday as I was preparing a trade for him and he said, “iffy command worries me a lot less than iffy stuff would; more fixable.”  There’s no positive way to spin three straight double-digit hits allowed games by Carp (10-10-13), but some of it is no doubt a concern I expressed about the Cards this preseason which is that they downgraded their SS defense significantly moving from Brendan Ryan to Ryan Theriot.  Carpenter’s spike in BABIP to .327, his worst mark since 1999, show the effects early on.  But going back to Leach’s comment, the stuff is fine and he is just missing some spots allowing more balls in play for a lesser defense to try and field.  He’s a savvy vet who can and I’m betting will make adjustments to improve.

There are no doubt more examples for batters and pitchers, I’ve just highlighted a handful of each for you.  The main point to take away is that you shouldn’t balk on acquiring a struggling guy you believe in just because the owner your trading with might not give you a discount based on six weeks of play.

You probably wouldn’t sell at a discount based on six weeks, so don’t expect others to do it.  Or at least don’t be surprised if they don’t and be prepared to up your offer to something more suitable. Be careful too that if you lowball too far down the ladder, you might put off your trade partner completely.

Remember, interest in a player alone is enough to tell your trade partner that you think he can help your team.  Why else would you trade for someone?  So if they know someone else believes the player could be an asset, why would they give him away for a discount?  Good luck and happy trading.

Coming into the season, Scott Baker would have never been someone I would have imagined putting on my Trolling the Wire recommendation list because he is someone who was drafted or purchased at auction regardless of league format.

There was a tick of uncertainty with his rotation spot during Spring Training as the Twins did their best to show they didn’t care that much about winning (Nick Blackburn?  Really?), but in the end he landed a spot and Kevin Slowey was the odd man out.  Baker stumbled out of the gate allowing four runs in each of his first two starts across 11 innings which inexplicably led to the fantasy community at large distancing itself from Baker.

As a long-time fan of Baker despite his being a Twin (and my being a Tigers fan), this struck me as odd.  His ERA has left a bit to be desired in shallow mixed leagues three of the last four years, but his skills always said he was a  sub-4.00 ERA kind of pitcher.  Meanwhile his strikeout and walk rates were rock solid the last three years as the former ranged from 7.4 to 7.8 and the latter held firm from 2.2 to 2.3.

His chronic issue has been home runs allowed.  Longballs have been a problem of Baker’s throughout his entire career and they are the main reason that his pedestrian ERA rarely matches up with his near-elite skills profile.  A lot of good work can be erased in one swing when you are prone to gopheritis.

In those first two starts back in April, he allowed two home runs in each.  In the first start the homers accounted for all four runs of damage while he yielded two solo shots in the second start.  I have recommended Baker twice this season since those first two starts and those who picked him up have enjoyed two of his four excellent outings since those first two.

After the April 10^th start, he had a 6.55 ERA in 11 innings.  Since then he has dropped his ERA below 3.00 to 2.97 allowing just five runs in his last 28.3 innings of work.  In that time he has allowed just two home runs (a pair of solo shots to Boston in his last outing) while striking out 25 and walking a mere four (6.3 K/BB).  In other words, he has joined the Hold List.

He is owned in just two thirds of CBS leagues, 32% of Yahoo! leagues and a meager 18% of ESPN leagues.  He is someone you can confidently start regardless of opponent and venue at this time.  At the very least, he will bring you a well-above average strikeout rate (7.8 against AL average of 6.6) and excellent WHIP (1.14 compared to AL average of 1.29) thanks to elite control.  The upside is that he could match his 2008 ERA of 3.45 or at least just reach the sub-4.00 levels that his skills have suggested in the past.

Baker’s excellent start from Friday wasn’t a part of this week’s spot starter recommendations, but that didn’t keep the group from having the best week yet.  The 14 recommendations started 13 times (Sam LeCure did not pitch) with just one allowing more than three runs (R.A. Dickey, 6 ER v. SF).  Nine of the 13 pitchers allowed fewer than three runs allowing the group to post the first sub-3.00 ERA week of the season.

The frustrating part is that despite the excellent starts night after night, the group only managed four wins.  Compare that to five of the 10 recommendations from last week getting wins despite the group faring much worse and you have exhibit 9,271,584,336 of why projecting and chasing wins is stupid and not worth your time.  Worry about skills, let the wins come to you.

Let’s see what week 6 brings us.

MONDAY:

Travis Wood (CIN @ HOU) – I had some trepidation about Wood coming into this season as I worried that he might not be able to repeat his 3.51 ERA without legitimate skills improvement.  But I didn’t have him down for a 6.21.  His skills have been way too good to merit such an ugly ERA and a trip to Houston is a nice elixir to get things going back in the right direction.  His last start was against the Stros at home and he allowed two runs and struck out seven over six innings, a repeat performance would be welcomed.

Edwin Jackson (CHW @ LAA) – Jackson got off to a nice start this season before two implosion starts tanked his ERA taking it from 3.51 to 5.86 in just 9.7 innings.  I am not willing to give up on him at this point as the talent is still there in spades.  I’ll take a shot here that he builds off of his big start against Minnesota that was overshadowed by Francisco Liriano’s no-hitter.

TUESDAY:

Joel Pineiro (LAA v. CHW) – His late start to the season has kept him under the radar as he is massively under-owned despite two strong starts to begin his season.  His highest ownership rate among the three major outlets is a 32% mark in Yahoo! leagues which still leaves him plenty available for to jump on before your league wises up.  He isn’t a huge strikeout guy and never will be, so innings cap leaguers in major need of strikeouts might want to look elsewhere on this one.

Jason Hammel (COL v. NYM) – Hammel been excellent following a shaky season debut where he allowed four runs in five innings against the Dodgers.  He has posted a sub-2.00 ERA in the subsequent five starts allowing more than two just once.  He gets to face a mediocre Mets offense that he fared pretty well against back in early April in his second start of the season.  He held the Mets to just two earned in six innings allowing seven baserunners.

Jake Arrieta (BAL v. SEA) – Our first trio of the season on a given day.  Arrieta is the pick for the more strikeout-starved teams thanks to outings of eight and nine strikeouts in two of his last three.  The anemic Mariners offense strikeouts 4^th-most in the AL so Arrieta should have another fan-friendly outing.

WEDNESDAY:

Scott Baker (MIN v. DET) – His last appearance on Trolling before officially joining the Hold List.

Jake Peavy (CHW @ LAA) – It is his first start off of the disabled list and some owners are vehemently against starting a guy in that situation, but Peavy, a strikeout pitcher, gets to face the Angels who strikeout the most in the American League.  It’s a gamble with an injury risk like Peavy, but if he goes out and dominates, you might not get another chance to pick him up so better to be early.

THURSDAY:

Jon Garland (LAD @ PIT) – Congratulations to the Pirates for being .500 this late into the season, but it isn’t because of their 25^th-ranked offense.  This team strikes out more than any in baseball and this is the kind of spot that guys like Garland excel despite not possessing overwhelming stuff.

Charlie Morton (PIT v. LAD) – He has done some great things this season, but he has an uneven skills profile looking at it in full.  The strikeout total for the season is worrisome at 4.7, but he’s up to a very useful 6.8 in his last four starts.  His season total is held down by the fact that he managed just six in his first three starts totaling 22 innings.  He was someone I really liked to take a step forward this year and become useful in any NL-Only format and possibly ramp up enough for mixed league viability.  He could become a Trolling regular in the coming weeks.

FRIDAY:

Dillon Gee (NYM @ HOU) – Splitting time between starting and relieving, the samples are small but he has been much better in the former thus far.  He has a 2.65 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and a 2.0 K/BB in 17 innings as a starter.  A four run implosion in a 1.7 inning relief outing has inflated his season numbers.  I think the skills are good enough that we could eventually see Gee hit the Hold List over the summer.  For now, he’s a good spot starter.

Ryan Dempster (CHC v. SF) – Check your league’s wire, he could be available.  He really shouldn’t be so if he is, make him a permanent hold.  He just got off to an ugly start, plain and simple.  Home runs were positively killing him, but they have never been a major problem in the past so that will regress in his favor.  We are already seeing it in his last two starts.

He has gone 14 innings allowing just three runs (1.92 ERA) striking out nine, walking two and allowing one home run (a solo shot on Sunday to Drew Stubbs).  Sometimes guys have terrible stretches that can’t be explained away by injury or significant skills change.  It could just be something within his delivery that he is working to correct then all of a sudden he will be back to his 200 inning/near-8 Kper9/mid-to-high 3.00s ERA self.

As always, look for the weekend picks later in the week.

As we turn the calendar on the first full month of the baseball season, the trade wires will begin firing up in earnest as teams maneuver to plug holes left by the spate of injuries and slow starts around the majors.  On the other end of those struggling are the superlatives who are off to record-setting starts.

Slotting one of those players into your lineup is a cure many would love to administer to their team.  Of course it is those who are doing the best that can be toughest to trade for in terms of trade value.  Will they continue?  If not, how much will they fall off?  How much should one month boost their trade value as compared to where they were drafted or what their salary was in the auction?

These questions and more are what lie ahead for owners as they contemplate offers and discuss a myriad of trade possibilities.  I am going to look at 10 of the best performers thus far (five hitters, five pitchers) and work through an exercise whereby we try to figure what exactly is “left” for them.  In other words, what are they going to offer you if you trade for them?

An owner who traded for Ubaldo Jimenez after his sick April in which he threw 24.3 innings of 0.79 ball with 31 strikeouts winning all five of his starts got back 187.3 innings of 3.27 ERA with 14 wins in 28 starts.  A far cry from his April work, but still very useful especially to a team in need of pitching.  But at what cost?  If his trade mate charged him a Roy Halladay price then he may not have been so happy as he didn’t get the sub-3.00 excellence linked to baseball’s best pitcher.

We will look at the five pitchers today.  First we will see what they would have left if they merely managed to end the 2011 season with their three year average of statistics.  Then we will take a look at they still have in the tank as compared against a favorable projection based on their first month, their previous high watermark season and some personal projection from yours truly.

PITCHERS

Johnson’s three year has injury time missed built into it since he made just 14 starts in 2008 and 28 a year ago.  It skews things a bit, but it shouldn’t be glossed over since he is a legitimate injury risk (what pitcher isn’t?).  Coming into the season there were some injury grumblings about him similar to those of Adam Wainwright.

So far he has not only avoided them entirely, but put together a six start stretch that has just been downright absurd in terms of quality.  If he were to have a second straight career year, there would essentially be a 2010 Clay Buchholz with more strikeouts left in the tank.  Buchholz threw 174 innings with a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP last year.  So call it a Buchholz-plus.

However if he were to succumb to any injury and just meet his three year average, which is a hell of an average for the rate stats mind you, he would be pretty “meh” from here on out.  Think 2010 Hisanori Takahashi.  The Mets swingman threw 122 innings with a 3.60 ERA and 1.30 WHIP along with 114 strikeouts.

That’s obviously a pessimistic look as you never really want to project injury for someone, but you need to build that into your cost when trading for Johnson.  If your trade partner is unwilling to build in some sort of discount for very real injury risk associated with Johnson then you might be better off looking elsewhere.

Weaver has been a workhorse the last three years getting better year over year increasing his starts and innings while also improving most of his other numbers in the process, too.  As such, many may see this surge as a continuation of what he has been doing the last several years.

Of course it doesn’t always work that way.  In fact, it is much smarter to predict a regression to the mean than it is continued excellence.  If he put up a line equal to his three year average, it would still be one of the best seasons of his career, yet owners getting him now would be saddled with some pretty pedestrian numbers.  Imagine something similar to 2010 Kevin Slowey.

I love Slowey, but the price you would have to pay to get a Slowey clone from here on out what would be pretty outrageous.  I actually don’t see Weaver dropping that much over the remainder of the season, but given how often we see players regress to their average, it certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.

I actually see something of a Ubaldian season for Weaver which is essentially what the dream projection give him.  He “struggled” in his start on Monday (notching the baseline of a quality start, 6 IP/3 ER), but when that is your worst start of the year so far, you’re doing just fine.

Keep in mind that if Weaver “only” matches his line from last year (except for wins… if he only managed 13 after getting six in the first month, that’d be really unfortunate), you are due for 173 innings of 3.50 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with 178 strikeouts.  A very strong line to be sure, but perhaps not as impactful as you might be hoping given the price paid.  I am not saying don’t trade for him, I actually think he is pretty safe as pitchers go, but don’t let your trade partner gouge you, either.

In an AL-Only league I play in, I saw him get traded for Nelson Cruz which I thought was quite fair on both sides.  In fact, looking at his CBS page, I see he was part of another trade in some other league with Cruz who was paired with Brian Roberts while Yadier Molina was sent back with Weaver.

Haren is known for slow second halves waiting until after the All-Star Break to regress to his mean.  After several years of this trend, he reversed it last year.  Saddled with gobs of bad luck in Arizona throughout the first half, he was traded to the Angels just before the trade deadline and pitched masterfully down the stretch posting a 2.87 ERA in 94 innings.

He has maintained that high level of pitching into this year, but still some are reticent because of his history of slowing down as the season wears on.  Personally, I would leverage that in my favor to drive the price down a bit.

Though his ERA has regressed in the second half many times throughout his career, he isn’t a completely useless shlub.  His strong strikeout rates hold up well regardless of time period and his WHIP often stays well above average, too.  Plus, there are still two months before the second half of the season.  If you trade for Haren now, you could still get plenty of goodness and then flip him yourself if you truly are afraid of the second half.

Haren is an especially great target for teams struggling in WHIP.  While it is still technically early, we are getting close to the point where massive ERA and WHIP deficits can’t be easily fixed with a move or two.  Innings are piling up and if you’re too far away from the rest of the pack, you will need two or three star arms to fix it and trading for that would likely decimate you elsewhere rendering the moves useless.

How do you make a dream projection for this guy?  Use 1968 Bob Gibson as a reference point?  Without getting too ridiculous, I just decided to stick with what he has done so far this year and project it for the entire season.  That would still qualify as a career year, but barely after his amazing 2010.

Even his three year average is absurd and if that’s “all” did in 2011, he would still almost certainly be the best pitcher in baseball from here on out.  The simple fact is you’re going to have to pay to get him and if you can somehow avoid paying the price of your first round pick or top dollar offensive asset, then do the trade.

Of course, I doubt that will happen.  Perusing the CBS trades shows us that he has been dealt for Joey Votto, Ryan Braun and Hanley Ramirez most recently.  If your pitching needs help and he is who you seek, you better hope your offense can sustain respectability without its best player or else there is no point doing the trade.  That is to say if you’re going to lose as many points taking player X out of your offense as you’d get by adding Halladay to your pitching, then look elsewhere to fix your pitching woes.

By the way, if he ended this season with his three year average, he would essentially be 2010 David Price with 10 fewer innings from here on out.  We are a month into the season and what he has left is the equivalent of one of the best pitchers in baseball from last year.

Last but not at all the least is Lester.  A popular pick for the American League Cy Young, including mine, he is showing why so many thought he could bring home the hardware this year.  Outside of Halladay, he has the least downside in his profile should he “only” reach his three year average by season’s end.  Part of that is because his ERA and WHIP aren’t as good as the others right now, but the other part is because his three year average is very strong.

He has become one of the most consistent aces in the game and as a 27-year old entering his physical prime, many believed he would take a significant step forward to make a bid for American League’s best pitcher.  If he were to reach that lofty goal, he would probably be near or better than the dream projection.

That would make him, in my estimation, the best of this group to trade for considering he likely won’t cost as much as Halladay does and his upside as compared to what he has already done is the best of the bunch, too.

He has been involved in some insane trades at CBS in that if you were able to get similar value, you should jump at the chance.  Twice today he was dealt straight up for Tim Hudson.  Other straight up deals include ones for: Alex Gordon (!!!), Jose Reyes, Ryan Howard and Justin Verlander.

I won’t share every single one, but just looking at the first page of these trades, they all seem to favor the team getting Lester except for the one where Lester and Howard Kendrick cost the owner Miguel Cabrera and Jake Arrieta.  That is pretty even, though I generally prefer to get the superstar hitter in trades.  Of course if you need pitching, that isn’t always possible.

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I hope this exercise helps you in your trade endeavors as you try to assess exactly what you are getting back in your mega-deal.  Next, I will look at some hitters who are on fire and perform the same exercise.

You may also be interested in reading the piece by Daniel Moroz over at Beyond the Boxscore that looks at how April’s top pitchers from previous years finish the season.